European Commission Grapples With Influx Of Ukraine Grain

European Commission Grapples With Influx Of Ukraine Grain

Authored by RFE/RL staff via OilPrice.com,

  • September 15 ends temporary measures allowing certain Ukrainian agricultural products to pass through five EU countries, which was instated due to border closures and oversaturation concerns.

  • Russian interference with Ukraine’s Black Sea trade has shifted a bulk of the agricultural trade routes toward the European Union, affecting local markets.

  • Options for easing trade pressures include improving the EU-Ukrainian border facilities, utilizing Baltic ports for exports, and a potential €600 million compensation for Kyiv.

The European Commission is facing tricky decisions in the coming weeks over the influx of Ukrainian agricultural products into the European Union. September 15 marks the end of the so-called temporary preventive measures that have allowed wheat, maize, rapeseed, and sunflower seed from Ukraine to transit through Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia. All four of those commodities must remain “unsealed” until they reach other EU member states — ideally to EU ports to be shipped on to developing nations around the world. These measures came about in early May after Poland, then Hungary, Slovakia, and Bulgaria unilaterally shut their borders to all Ukrainian exports a month earlier, complaining that a glut of Ukrainian agricultural goods was filling up local storage and depressing prices for local farmers.

The European Commission scrambled for a solution that would satisfy the five frontline states (the above-mentioned four plus Romania) while being acceptable for Kyiv. There was also a need to ensure that Ukrainian agriproducts reached third countries, notably in Africa and Asia, that have reported food shortages.

Moreover, there was evident interest in safeguarding against major distortions on the EU’s internal market — something that the European Commission is officially in charge of. That’s a lot of circles to square, and Brussels’ solution in early May was to agree to preventive measures regarding the four products for the five frontline countries for one month, plus financial compensation for their farmers.

In June, the measures were prolonged with the understanding that they would be phased out on September 15 and, in a separate decision, the EU approved the extension by another year of a tariff-free regime with Ukraine covering all Ukrainian products entering the bloc.

Deep Background

Now the five frontline EU member states are pushing for an extension until the end of the year.

You have crucial parliamentary elections in Slovakia on September 30 and in Poland on October 15, and farmers are an important and influential constituency in both countries.

The European Commission does have some understanding for the five, and numbers back up their worries.

Before 2022, EU agricultural imports from Ukraine totaled 7 billion euros, and 90 percent came via the Black Sea route.

By 2022, that figure had risen to 13 billion euros and 5 billion of the additional 6 billion euros of goods ended up on the markets of the frontline EU states.

The big culprit here is, of course, Russia, which has severely hampered Ukraine’s lucrative Black Sea trade.

Since the outbreak of the war, 40 percent of Ukrainian grain has been exported via the Black Sea Grain Initiative that expired in July after Russia opted not to renew it.

Drilling Down:

  • Ukraine obviously wants the temporary measures removed on September 15 but finds itself in a difficult situation when it comes to its agricultural products. Only 3 percent of the products that are currently transported via the EU’s solidarity lanes instead of the Black Sea route are being shipped from the EU to third countries. There simply aren’t many global buyers for such expensive goods. Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain have instead increased Ukrainian imports, especially of maize, which is vital to feeding livestock and boosting meat production.

  • The EU is also investing to the tune of 1 billion euros to improve the Solidarity lanes — and to reduce the costs for Ukrainian traders. The most obvious remedies include removing bottlenecks on various EU-Ukrainian border crossings by streamlining customs services, improving roads leading to the crossing, and increasing personnel there. But such measures take time to implement.

  • The Baltic states have suggested easing the administrative burden on the EU-Ukrainian borders by shifting customs, veterinary, and phytosanitary controls to five Baltic ports (Tallinn, Riga, Ventspils, Liepaja, and Klaipeda), which have a combined annual capacity of 25 million tons. Croatia has also suggested using its Adriatic ports in a similar way.

  • Currently, the most likely scenario is a prolongation of the preventive measures, judging by indications I’ve gotten from EU officials. And not only that. The frontline five want more products, including eggs and poultry, added to the four types of goods already listed.

  • The European Commission has so far indicated there is no great influx from Ukraine of eggs or poultry. Raspberries, however, might be added after what one European Commission official described to me as a “drastic increase” in the EU market.

  • The European Commissioner for agriculture, Janusz Wojciechowski, recently floated the idea of compensating Kyiv along with any extension. Noting that EU transit costs around 30 euros per ton and Ukraine needs to export around 20 million tons of food produce in the coming months, the European Commission would offer 600 million euros to Kyiv.

  • This would act as a sort of economic subsidy to Ukrainian traders to enable the transport of grain all the way to EU ports. Ukraine would reportedly consider such an option, but it’s unclear whether the entire European Commission would agree to the compensation.

  • Expect that some sort of solution will be forthcoming as early as this week, especially given that a working platform set up in May to tackle the issue comprising relevant officials from the five frontline states, Ukraine, and the European Commission will discuss the issue in Brussels on September 5 as the bloc’s agricultural ministers are meeting in the Spanish city of Cordoba on September 4-5.

Turkey, which was key to the 2022 initiative that was struck to alleviate the global food shortage by opening trade from a handful of Ukrainian ports, has been working hard to resuscitate the deal. President Erdogan was expected to push for its renewal during a planned meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi on September 4.

There’s a question, however, as to whether Russia is interested in a renewal. By strangling the Ukrainian Black Sea option, which normally allows for larger and cheaper worldwide exports with huge cargo ships compared to transporting overland in the EU, Russia has seemingly outmaneuvered an important trade competitor and made its own grain cheaper and more lucrative worldwide.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/06/2023 – 07:20

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/kRcwieW Tyler Durden

Americans’ Support For, Belief In Unions Strengthens

Americans’ Support For, Belief In Unions Strengthens

More Americans support unions today than in the entire 1970s, 80s, 90s and 2000s.

As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz reports, in 2023, 67 percent of U.S. respondents said they approved of unions, up from only 54 percent ten years ago and comparable to levels in the 1960s. Last year support had reached 71 percent, still short of a high of 75 percent in the Gallup survey in 1953 and 1957.

Belief that unions will become stronger in the future grew even more – to 34 percent of respondents this August, up from just 19 percent in 2018 when the detailed part of the survey was last carried out. 43 percent of people said they wanted unions to have more influence, also significantly up from 39 percent in 2018 and a low of 25 percent in 2009.

Infographic: Americans' Support for, Belief in Unions Strengthens | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

The desire for more union power was divided along party lines – 61 percent of Democrats and 21 percent of Republican are for it – and has not changed much in the past five years, as it was mainly Independents that pivoted to championing stronger unions.

When it comes to people’s outlook on unions, however, Republicans have started to agree that unions are strengthening. 14 percent of Republicans thought so in 2018, compared with 20 percent in 2023.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/06/2023 – 06:55

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/ISQXD20 Tyler Durden

Investors Aren’t Seeing Any Recovery In Autos

Investors Aren’t Seeing Any Recovery In Autos

By Michael Msika, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strateigst

European carmakers are so cheap that investors are pricing them to fail, seeing long-term growth and pricing power faltering as global competition intensifies. Except for their deep value, it’s hard to find a positive among the mounting headwinds.

Carmakers have been extremely cheap for nearly two years. The Stoxx 600 autos and parts forward price-to-earnings ratio is hovering around 5.3 times, near the bottom of a 17-year range and about a 60% discount to the broader market. Slowing demand, lower growth in China, fierce competition in electric vehicles and eroding pricing power are building a wall of worries for the sector.

“The sector is priced to lose substantial market share in upcoming years and, if correct, this would ultimately signal the end of the road for one of Europe’s most important industrial sectors,” say Bernstein analysts including Daniel Roeska. “Market valuations imply a free-cash-flow mean-reversion of -22% and long-term growth of 1.5%.”

The analysts believe the market is “too pessimistic,” assuming operational improvements achieved in the past year will erode, while long-term growth will be subdued. While carmakers face numerous challenges, they see some value, with outperform ratings on Mercedes and Renault, and a market-perform view on BMW, Stellantis and Volkswagen. While the latter is “overvalued,” both Stellantis and Renault are “essentially priced to go out of business,” they say.

On average, sell-side analysts are holding a positive view. The Stoxx 600 autos and parts is the subindex with the most upside seen over the next 12 months at 30%. Earnings forecasts have been on the rise this year, reaching a record high in August, but have stalled since, with cracks in the bull case finally showing in estimates.

Last week, UBS downgraded Volkswagen and Renault to sell on intensifying competition from Tesla and Chinese rivals. Earlier this month, Tesla announced a revamp of its Model 3, while again slashing prices on several variants, increasing fears of an EV price war. Meanwhile, new-model announcements at the IAA Mobility car show in Munich haven’t been a strong catalyst so far.

The sector is up 14% this year, outperforming the broader market, but most gains were achieved at the beginning of the year. Since then, it’s been a volatile ride, and the past month has been a struggle, with the SXAP falling 5.6%, the worst-performing subgroup of the Stoxx 600 over that period. European PMI data hasn’t shown any sign of recovery, which could weigh further on the sector, while slowing growth in China is seen as a major issue for exposed carmakers like BMW and Porsche, according to Citi analysts.

“China represents about 30% of global car demand, and about 70% of global BEV demand,” say analysts including Harald Hendrikse, who see yuan weakness as an additional risk to EPS. They estimate that 33% of BMW, 30% of Porsche, 26% of Volkswagen, and 23% of Mercedes Ebit come from China, while Stellantis and Renault have little exposure. “European auto OEMs tend to be highly correlated with China growth sentiment,” they say. 

Overall, confidence is low among equity strategists and asset allocators, with many, including those at JPMorgan, Barclays and Bank of America, keeping a bearish view on the sector on likely waning pricing power, slowing economic growth and softening car demand.

“Autos look cheap on a range of valuation measures, such as price-to-book, as well as on EV/Ebitda,” says JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka. “However, the sector is strongly correlated to activity momentum, and could be hurt as PMIs stay subdued.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/06/2023 – 06:30

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/iNGuXR9 Tyler Durden

“No Choice”: Musk Threatens Suit Against ADL; Blames Activists For “Most Of X’s Revenue Loss”

“No Choice”: Musk Threatens Suit Against ADL; Blames Activists For “Most Of X’s Revenue Loss”

Elon Musk, owner of the platform X, formerly known as Twitter, has threatened to ban the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) from his platform, adding that he had “no choice” but to file a defamation lawsuit against the advocacy group, which previously called for a pause on ad spending on the social network.

The group alleges Mr Musk has failed to clamp down on hate speech on the social media platform since his takeover last year, allowing disinformation to proliferate – something Mr Musk strongly denies

Further, it was revealed that the ADL has put pressure on X to deplatform popular anti-woke account Libs of TikTok, which is run by a conservative Jewish woman, Chaya Raichik.

A #BanTheADL began circulating on the social media platform after a meeting last Thursday between ADL CEO Jonathan Greenblatt and X’s new CEO Linda Yaccarino.

“I had a very frank + productive conversation with @LindayaX yesterday about @X, what works and what doesn’t, and where it needs to go to address hate effectively on the platform. I appreciated her reaching out and I’m hopeful the service will improve. @ADL will be vigilant,” Greenblatt posted after the meeting.

The hashtag was condemned by Israel’s foreign ministry. Additionally, as MEE reports, while this recent campaign has been amplified by so-called ‘far-right’ social media accounts (translation: non-mainstream-narrative-spewers), progressive organizations and Palestinian activists have for years raised concerns about the ADL and its efforts to undermine social justice movements in the US.

News of the potential lawsuit comes after news broke that X is still down around 60% in US ad revenue as the ADL continues to put pressure on its advertisers to avoid the social media platform.

“I don’t see any scenario where they’re responsible for less than 10pc of the value destruction, so [around] $4bn.”

In November, the pressure group Stop Hate for Profit, which includes the ADL, called on advertisers “to pause their spending globally” and claimed “hate speech and disinformation have proliferated” on the app since Mr Musk’s takeover.

It wouldn’t be the first time the ADL was sued for defamation…

Musk also shared an article questioning the ADL’s bias.

Musk also suggested that X will expose – Twitter-Files-esque – the ADL’s requests to ban and censor X accounts it deems anti-Semitic next week, prompting a hashtag for #TheADLFiles…

“A giant data dump would clear the air.”

Musk made it very clear where he stands…

…and does no one remember what he told David Faber about his attitude to ‘being able to say what he likes’.

And finally, here is ADL CEO Jonathan Greenblatt in 2016 sounding an awful lot like Elon Musk on free speech advocacy…

…now what happened in 2016 that would have prompted him to abandon these morals in favor the most extreme censorship?

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/06/2023 – 06:11

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/vFhmAdc Tyler Durden

These Are America’s Largest Charities

These Are America’s Largest Charities

With revenues of $23 billion in 2022, Lutheran Services in America tops the list of the highest-earning nonprofits in the United States, according to an analysis by Forbes.

The network of 300 Lutheran organizations is one of only three nonprofits bringing in more than $10 billion annually, as Statista’s Florian Zandt shows in the chart below. The other two are health organizations, namely the Mayo Clinic and the New York-Presbyterian Hospital, with revenues of roughly $20 billion and $11 billion, respectively.

Notably, four of the top 8 nonprofits are connected to the healthcare sector, the third and fourth entrants being Mount Sinai Health Systems and the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center.

Infographic: The United States' Biggest Charities | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Other entrants in the list are the youth organization YMCA of the USA, Goodwill Industries, which offers community-based programs re-integrating people with barriers to employment and is funded by more than 3,000 thrift stores, and the Salvation Army, a Protestant church and the United States’ most important non-governmental social services provider. Many of these organizations’ charitable intent is aimed at the general public as well as their top executives. For example, in 2021, the CEO of New York-Presbyterian Hospital was compensated with an estimated $12.4 million.

While many charities rely on private donations, many of the top earners are mostly independent of citizens’ support.

Instead, possible major funding avenues are the government, service fees or, as mentioned above, sales from their thrift stores.

According to data aggregated by social sector data provider Candid, there were 1.8 million nonprofits registered in the U.S. in 2021, with 1.4 million public charities alone.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/06/2023 – 05:45

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/7hCkKTY Tyler Durden

Germany Ends Training Of Saudi Border Forces After Migrant Atrocities

Germany Ends Training Of Saudi Border Forces After Migrant Atrocities

Via Middle East Eye,

Germany has ended a training program for Saudi border forces implicated in the alleged mass killings of migrants at the border with Yemen. In a statement to the Guardian, the German interior ministry said the program had been “discontinued” following reports of “massive human rights violations” by Saudi border forces.

The ministry clarified that the removal of the program was a “precaution” and that no training of Saudi forces had taken place in the border area between the kingdom and Yemen. The announcement comes amid reports of a surge in “deliberate mass killings” of predominantly Ethiopian migrants attempting to cross the border by Saudi border forces. 

Foreign troops in Saudi Arabia, via CNN

Reports of security forces firing on hundreds of migrants first emerged in 2020, but escalated in 2022-23. According to the Guardian, Saudi authorities had legitimized the increasing use of lethal force against migrants by treating incursions along the Yemen-Saudi border as a “counter-terrorism” issue.

Human Rights Watch (HRW) investigation earlier this month drew renewed international scrutiny; satellite imaging, photographs and witness testimony by survivors revealed what HRW’s lead researcher, Nadia Harman, described as “obscene” levels of violence perpetrated by the border force.

The Saudi authorities have denied all allegations. The British newspaper recently reported that the US and Germany had been conducting long-term training programs for Saudi forces commanded by the Ministry of the Interior, including its border force.

German training of Saudi forces started in 2009, and paused only briefly after the 2018 killing of the Washington Post journalist and MEE contributor Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. 

It is not clear when Germany made the decision to end the program. The US training program for the Saudi border force, known as Ministry of Interior-Military Assistance Group (MOI-MAG), dates back to 2008

According to the US training agreement, Washington was required to monitor how the training was being used. The agreement also stated that those being trained were only allowed to operate defensively, to protect themselves and their sites from attacks. The funding for the program ran out last month, reportedly for reasons unrelated to the alleged atrocities.

Last Thursday, the US State Department publicly acknowledged that it had known about the spike in lethal violence on the border since last summer, contradicting an earlier statement by the agency that the US government had first heard reports of abuses in December 2022.

The State Department also confirmed that the US government had conducted a training program for Saudi border forces between 2017 and 2022 but it insisted that the training excluded border guards on land, focusing instead on maritime guards. A US training spokesperson said they were urging Saudi Arabia to conduct a “thorough and transparent investigation”.

The Saudi-Yemen border has become particularly dangerous in recent years, with around 430 deaths and 650 injuries recorded between 1 January and 30 April 2022. 

In October, several UN special rapporteurs highlighted the killings in a letter, describing them as “gross human rights violations against migrants”. HRW has called on Saudi Arabia to “immediately and urgently revoke any policy, whether explicit or de facto, to deliberately use lethal force on migrants and asylum seekers, including targeting them with explosive weapons and close-range attacks”.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/06/2023 – 05:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/UKpaNC4 Tyler Durden

Brickbat: The King and I


A judge's gavel against the backdrop of the flag of Saudi Arabia. | Sergei Babenko | Dreamstime.com

A court in Saudi Arabia has sentenced Muhammad al-Ghamdi to death after finding him guilty of “describing the King or the Crown Prince in a way that undermines religion or justice,” “supporting a terrorist ideology,” “communication with a terrorist entity,” and publishing false news “with the intention of executing a terrorist crime.” Al-Ghamdi, a 54-year-old retired teacher, posted five tweets criticizing corruption and human rights violations in Saudi Arabia.

The post Brickbat: The King and I appeared first on Reason.com.

from Latest https://ift.tt/WpHyNjs
via IFTTT

British Challenger 2 Tank Destroyed In Combat For First Time, Ukraine Footage Shows

British Challenger 2 Tank Destroyed In Combat For First Time, Ukraine Footage Shows

War monitors and several media outlets are reporting that for the first time since the Ukraine war began, a British Challenger 2 main battle tank has been confirmed destroyed

“A battlefield video circulating on social media overnight appears to show the destruction of a British Challenger 2 in Ukraine, which would be the first time one of the tanks has been destroyed in combat,” premier UK newspaper The Guardian writes.

“At the beginning of the video, filmed from a car trying to flee the fighting, the Challenger 2 with its distinctive gun barrel is seen shrouded in thick, grey smoke,” the publication details. “It is unclear what has caused the blaze.”

But given these foreign-supplied tanks are currently in front-line positions amid Ukraine’s faltering counteroffensive, very likely the tank suffered a direct hit from Russian munitions or possibly a powerful drone.

Interestingly, UK media has made clear that up to this point no Challenger 2 tank has ever been lost in battle due to enemy forces since it entered production and was first deployed in 1994 (the exception was a friendly fire incident in Iraq in 2003).

As for the Challenger newly blown up on the Ukrainian battlefield, British military sources have confirmed the loss:

British defence sources said that despite the impact, the Ukrainian crew is believed to have survived. A typical crew is made up of four members, and unlike Russian equivalents, its ammunition is stored in separate compartments to try to prevent it from exploding if the tank takes a direct hit.

Experts confirmed the identity of the tank from the video. It is unclear exactly when and where it was filmed, though people are heard speaking in Ukrainian when they see a second immobilised tank.

Watch the rare close-up video below:

The Challenger as well as Germany’s Leopard tanks were among the first Western-supplied main battle tanks to appear in action against Russia, with M1 Abrams still on their way from the US and not believed to be deployed yet, also given Ukrainian operators and crews must undergo extensive training.

Very controversially, the UK has been sending depleted uranium armor-piercing rounds to Kiev, in order to fire them from the Challenger II tanks. The UK Defense Ministry last spring admitted that it “does not monitor the locations from where DU rounds are fired by the AFU in Ukraine.”

The Kremlin has since warned such a weapon will be treated as tantamount to using a nuclear dirty bomb, and that Russia reserves the right to respond accordingly. President Putin’s decision to send tactical nukes to be hosted on Belarusian territory was reportedly related to the UK depleted uranium munitions.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/06/2023 – 04:15

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/7Mcmwoi Tyler Durden

Watch: Cultural Diversity On Display Again In Sweden

Watch: Cultural Diversity On Display Again In Sweden

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Displays of cultural diversity have yet again broken out in the multiethnic utopia of Sweden.

Otherwise known as migrant riots, the latest violence has erupted in Malmo following a Quran burning by an ‘Anti-Islam activist’ according to the BBC.

“A group of angry protesters tried to stop the burning, which resulted in a showdown between them and police,” the report states.

Take a look at the “angry protesters” in action:

That’s not a protest. It’s a riot.

This exact same thing happened last year in the same areas too:

Over the last 20 years, Sweden has taken in more refugees per capita that any other western country, a process which has seen Sweden go from being one of the safest countries in Europe to the second most dangerous.

Related:

*  *  *

Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. We need you to sign up for our free newsletter here. Support my sponsor – Summit Vitamins – super charge your health and well being.

Also, we urgently need your financial support here.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/06/2023 – 03:30

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/nkRFy4c Tyler Durden

Greece Floods As Potential “Medicane” Wreaks Havoc

Greece Floods As Potential “Medicane” Wreaks Havoc

A powerful storm churning over the southeast Mediterranean has already dumped more than 20 inches of rain on central Greece and sparked widespread flooding. The upper-level low-pressure system, named “Daniel,” has characteristics of a “medicane” or Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone. 

“This is an extreme weather phenomenon,” said Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis during a meeting on Tuesday with Greek President Katerina Sakellaropoulou. 

The Hellenic National Meteorological Service, the Greek government weather agency, issued red warnings, the highest warning category, due to dangerous flash floods after more than 20 inches of rain had fallen across the central region. 

“Heavy rain will continue in Greece into Thursday thanks to an Omega block keeping Storm Daniel nearby for a couple of additional days,”  AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls wrote in a note. 

The Greek village of Portaria has been the most severely hit by the torrential rain. It reported 23.65 inches at the start of Tuesday, while nearby areas, such as Volos and Agia provinces, registered nearly 8 inches. 

Videos on social media show flash floods ripping through Greece and islands, expected to continue for the next 24 to 48 hours. 

AccuWeather meteorologists caution Daniel could strengthen into a “medicane” when it moves across the warm waters of the Mediterranean Sea. 

Daniel comes as Greece has been battering wildfires nationwide this summer. Civil Protection Minister Vassilis Kikilias recently said nearly 100 people have been arrested for starting fires. He called them “arsonist scum.” 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/06/2023 – 02:45

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/9MVT8Wx Tyler Durden