Poverty Indicators Worsen Across Post-Pandemic Asia

Poverty Indicators Worsen Across Post-Pandemic Asia

The share of people in developing Asia who live in extreme and moderate poverty is estimated to be higher now than 2022 predictions from before the pandemic had suggested. 

As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz reports, according to a new report by the Asian Development Bank, only 2.2 percent of people in the region were supposed to live in extreme poverty in 2022, defined as having less than $2.15 at their disposal in a day. However, the institution estimates that last year between 3.9 and 4.1 percent or around 155 million people were actually existing below this international poverty line. With moderate poverty also estimated to be around 4 percentage points higher than the forecast, poverty affected more than 20 percent of developing Asia last year despite hopes of more progress having been made at this point.

Infographic: Poverty Indicators Worsen in Post-Pandemic Asia | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

According to the report, the pandemic and the subsequent inflation crisis that took a turn for the worse with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have hit poorer people around the world especially hard. While social protections can mitigate such crises and help lift people out of poverty, less than half of the population in 26 Asian economies, including developed ones, was covered by any social benefits in 2020. The slowing down of poverty eradication in the current crisis scenario is now making the UN sustainable development goal of ending extreme poverty by 2030 more elusive.

Many of the people in poverty in developing Asia live in some of the continent’s most populous nations, namely India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, which had extreme poverty rates between 13.5 percent and 4.9 percent as of the latest available data. Other countries with high (relative) numbers of extreme poverty in Asia were Laos, Nepal and Tajikistan. Data for Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan has not been published in at least 20 years, but numbers were also among the world’s highest then.

Despite being home to many of Asia’s poorest due to its population size, the fight against poverty has generally been successful in Pakistan previous to the pandemic and the current crisis. The country almost halved the share of its people living below the poverty line between 2010 and 2018 to around 5 percent. India cut poverty back from 22.5 percent in 2011 to 10 percent in 2019. The Philippines even lowered the number of those existing below the poverty line from 11.3 percent in 2009 to 3 percent in 2021 while Indonesia achieved a decrease from 18.3 percent in 2010 to 2.5 percent in 2020.

Yet, going the last mile to zero extreme poverty might prove equally hard for these countries as for those which haven’t made as much progress, including Laos, Tajikistan and Bangladesh.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 09/05/2023 – 04:15

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Brickbat: On Record


A pen and a bullet on top of a federal firearm transaction record. | Guy Sagi | Dreamstime.com

When U.S. Army Sgt. 1st Class Jamie Morris, a Special Forces soldier, applied for a concealed carry permit, his local sheriff’s office contacted him about several arrests on his record. Morris was confused: He’s never been arrested. But his record showed he’d been arrested on several charges, most seriously aggravated sexual contact and negligent homicide and murder. His issues began in 2017, when he was stationed in Mali with several other members of various U.S. special operations forces. Four special operations forces members killed a fifth during that deployment. They were all convicted or pleaded guilty. Two of them claimed Morris authorized the hazing of the man who was killed. But their stories contradicted each other, and the others denied Morris had any involvement. That didn’t stop the Army Criminal Investigation Division from “titling” Morris. That’s a process where a soldier’s record is flagged even if he is never charged. It shows up on criminal background checks as an arrest and usually ends a soldier’s chances for promotion. A soldier is never even aware of it unless he applies for a concealed carry permit or job that requires a background check.

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The Eurozone: An Example Of Failed Keynesianism

The Eurozone: An Example Of Failed Keynesianism

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

The eurozone economic figures show the risk of stagflation, and the short-term impact is clear in Germany and France, but it extends to the rest of the countries.

Why has the eurozone lagged the United States and other developed economies in recent years? The enormous stimulus packages, including the 2009 Growth and Job Plan, the Juncker Plan, the New Green Deal, and the Europe Next Generation, are proving that central planning only delivers poor growth, elevated debt, and now high inflation.

The ECB’s latest figures show that monetary aggregates are starting to moderate, but inflation remains high and, in the latest print, is rising.

Consensus estimates of GDP growth in 2023 stand at 0.6% with inflation above 5%, according to Bloomberg, and it is important to remember that core inflation continues to be three times higher than the target of price stability.

Lagarde’s inflation messages seem clear, but the ECB’s target must be met. and interest rate increases are here to stay, although the market estimates that the ECB will start lowering interest rates by 2024. The problem is that the eurozone is only betting on rate hikes to moderate inflation, while governments continue to spend billions of euros on so-called Next Generation Funds and deficits that mean more inflation or taxes in the future.

We should not be surprised that credit in the eurozone is falling along with monetary aggregates. The entire burden of monetary normalization is falling on the productive sector, families, and businesses, while many governments continue to increase deficit spending.

The figures for growth in the eurozone are very poor, but they are even worse when we take into account that Ireland’s progress, as shown by Eurostat, almost entirely explains the most recent upward revision. What does the eurozone do? Instead of incentivizing the economic freedom model, it subsidizes the intervened ones.

The economy is expected to grow slightly in 2023, plagued by high inflation, rising interest rates, and lower exports. The Next Generation funds have no discernible marginal or multiplier effect.

The weak state of manufacturing and service indices confirms this fear. PMIs show a widespread negative trend in new orders and investment.

Hiking rates is not enough when the ECB’s balance sheet is 52% of GDP. Harmonized inflation fell to 5.3% in July from 5.5% in June, due to the base effect and the decline in commodities. However, commodities have been bouncing since May, when the market started discounting the end of rate hikes.

We cannot ignore the fact that the data on eurozone inflation expectations is rising and is at its peak in 2018.

The ECB raised its benchmark interest rate to 4.25% from 4.00%, a cumulative increase since July 2022 of 425 basis points. I believe it will end in 2023 at 4.43% and in 2024 at 3.68%, but without finishing the inflation battle.

Despite trillions in deficit and growth central plans, the eurozone faces an environment of poor growth and high inflation with strong headwinds, led by an increase in energy costs and the lagging effect that rising rates can generate, as interest rate increases do not show their full effect on the economy until 12–18 months after they are completed, according to the ECB’s estimates.

We would also remember the EU’s technological problems. While the US and China are leading global technological advances, it seems that the European Union has lagged in growth and investment, but above all in patents and technology companies. The EU does not have technology giants that can challenge the global leaders, and one of the factors that worries us most is the very high level of taxation. It works against the opportunities for creating world-class tech giants.

According to the European Commission itself, taxation in Europe remains at a very high level for capital (27.8%) and labor (21%), two key factors for the development of technology companies. Such high taxation jeopardizes innovation, the attraction of investment, and the improvement of human capital.

If there is a lesson for the United States and the rest of the world, it is that massive central planning does not deliver growth and that governments do not lead economic development and innovation. The eurozone would benefit from a supply-side, bottom-up approach to the economy. Unfortunately, it is doubling down on central planning.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 09/05/2023 – 03:30

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These Are The World’s Largest Stadiums

These Are The World’s Largest Stadiums

From football games to live concerts, stadiums serve as a gathering place for some of life’s most exciting moments.

While some stadiums are famous for their history, others are truly massive in size, capable of seating over 100,000 people at once.

In this graphic, Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu and Sabrina Lam have ranked the 10 largest stadiums in the world by seating capacity, with Madison Square Garden included as a reference point.

Data and Highlights

As shown in the graphic above, the world’s largest stadium belongs to India. Named after the country’s Prime Minister, the Narendra Modi Stadium was designed to host cricket games.

See below for the full list in tabular format.

The number two spot is held by Rungrado 1st of May Stadium, which is surprisingly located in North Korea. It was completed in 1989 with the purpose of hosting the 13th World Festival of Youth and Students, and is now used to host various government events.

It’s interesting to note that this arena initially had a higher capacity of 150,000 people, but was reduced to 114,000 after renovations in 2014.

Looking further down the list, the third to tenth largest stadiums belong to the United States. All of these arenas are primarily used for college football, serving as the home field for their respective university team.

A shocking fact is that these arenas are significantly larger than NFL stadiums. For example, the largest NFL stadium is MetLife Stadium, which has a seating capacity of 82,500.

The Runner-Ups

While just three countries are represented in the top 10 list, there is plenty of geographical diversity once we look a little further down. Shown below are the 11th to 14th largest stadiums in the world.

Camp Nou and FNB Stadium are two historic soccer stadiums which have both hosted a FIFA World Cup tournament. Camp Nou is owned by FC Barcelona, the world’s third most valuable soccer club.

New Administrative Capital Stadium is expected to replace the Cairo International Stadium as Egypt’s new national arena, and could be used to host the Olympics or a FIFA World Cup in the future if called upon.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 09/05/2023 – 02:45

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Who’s Afraid Of An Alternative For Germany?

Who’s Afraid Of An Alternative For Germany?

Authored by Conor Gallagher via NakedCapitalism.com,

The media describes them as far-right, anti-European Union, anti-immigrant, fascist, etc. But what exactly are the positions of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party? Why is it steadily gaining in public opinion polls, and why is the German establishment so afraid of them?

Various AfD party members have made comments in recent years that, depending on your point of view, are offensive or were blown out of proportion by the media. I’m not going to review all those here but instead wanted to look at what policies are contained in the AfD platform. The party’s “Manifesto for Germany” is a 93-page document that covers just about everything, but I want to focus here on areas that the media most frequently focus on  – immigration, the EU, and nationalism, as well as the set of positions that I would argue is the real reason for hyperventilating over AfD’s rise: foreign policy.

On the EU:

We oppose the idea to transform the European Union into a centralised federal state. We are in favour of returning the European Union to an economic union based on shared interests, and consisting of sovereign, but loosely connected nation states.…

We believe in a sovereign Germany, which guarantees the freedom and security of its citizens, promotes economic welfare, and contributes to a peaceful and prosperous Europe.

Should we not succeed with our ideas of a fundamental reform within the present framework of the European Union, we shall seek Germany‘s exit, or a democratic disso- lution of the EU, followed by the founding of a new Euro- pean economic union.…

European politics are characterised by a creeping loss of democracy. The EU has become an undemocratic entity, whose policies are determined by bureaucrats who have no democratic accountability.

On the Euro currency:

We call for an end to the Euro experiment and its orderly dissolution. Should the German Federal Parliament not agree to this demand, Germany’s continued membership of the single currency area should be put to a popular vote.…

The Euro actually jeopardises the peaceful co-existence of those European nations who are forced into sharing a common destiny by the Eurocracy. The introduction of this currency has led to resentment and confrontation amongst countries in Europe. Countries incurring economic difficulties within the single currency area are forced to restore their competitiveness by such measures as internal devaluation and associated budgetary constraints (austerity policies), rather than exploiting the tool of currency adjustments. Tensions amongst European nation states can inherently be ascribed to the Euro.

AfD doesn’t just oppose the Euro for altruistic reasons. The party also objects to any form of financial equalization between the richer and poorer euro countries and claims Germany shoulders an unfair burden in propping up the weaker members of the eurozone.

The political programme provides very little on labor policy, but AfD does want to provide financial incentives for Germans to reproduce. Here is the party on low birth rates and immigration:

In order to fight the effects of this negative demographic development, political parties currently in government support mass immigration, mainly from Islamic states, without due consideration of the needs and qualifications of the German labour market. During the past few years it has become evident that Muslim immigrants to Germany,in particular, only attain below-average levels of education, training and employment. As the birth rate is more than 1.8 children amongst immigrants, which is much higher than that of Germans, it will hasten the ethnic-cultural changes in society.

The attempt to counteract these developments by increasing the rate of immigration will inevitably lead to the estab lishment of more parallel communities, particularly inlarge cities, where integration with the native population is already a problem. The spread of conflict-laden and multiple minority communities erodes social solidarity, mutual trust, and public safety, which all are elements of a stable commu- nity. The average level of education will continue to drop.

Greater political support for parental work, as well as education and family policies which are focused on the needs of families and young couples wanting to start a family, will once again lead to birth rates at a self-sustaining rate in the medium to long-term. We regard the closing of the gap between the actual number of children being born, and the desire of 90% of young Germans to have children, as a central element of our political platform.

The document goes on for many pages about protecting the nation’s culture and how Islam is not a good fit for Germany. What exactly  is that culture?

The AfD is committed to German as the predominant culture. This culture is derived from three sources: firstly, the religious traditions of Christianity; secondly, the scientific and humanistic heritage, whose ancient roots were renewed during the period of Renaissance and the Age of Enlightenment; and thirdly, Roman law, upon which our constitutional state is founded.

Islam does not belong to Germany. Its expansion and the ever-increasing number of Muslims in the country are viewed by the AfD as a danger to our state, our society, and our values. An Islam which neither respects nor refrains from being in conflict with our legal system, or that even lays claim to power as the only true religion, is incompatible with our legal system and our culture. Many Muslims live as law-abiding and well-integrated citizens amongst us, and are accepted and valued members of our society. However, the AfD demands that an end is put to the formation and increased segregation by parallel Islamic societies relying
on courts with shari’a laws.

Here is the AfD immigration policy in a nutshell:

Current German and European asylum and refugee policies cannot be continued as in the past. The ill-fitting term “refugee” used for all the people who enter Germany irregularly with the aim to stay here forever, is characteristic of this misguided policy. It is necessary to make a distinction between political refugees and people fleeing from war on the one hand, and irregular migrants on the other. It is the AfD’s view that true refugees should be granted shelter as long as there is war in the countries of origin. Irregular migrants, who are not persecuted, have no right to claim protection, contrary to refugees. Once the reasons for fleeing, such as an end to wars, or political and religious persecution, no longer applies, shall residence permits of refugees be terminated. These refugees need to leave Germany. Germany and its EU partner countries should provide incentives for those who have to leave. It is in the interest of domestic and foreign peace if refugees return to their home countries and contribute to the political, economic and social reconstruction of these countries.

We advocate moderate legal immigration based on qualitative criteria where there is irrefutable demand, which can neither be satisfied from domestic resources, nor by EU immigration. The interests of Germany as a social, economic and cultural nation are paramount.

On militarization,  foreign policy and the US:

Currently, the operational readiness of the German Armed Forces is severely compromised. Due to poor political decisions and mismanagement, our armed forces have been severely neglected for over three decades. The operational readiness has to be fully restored so that the armed forces will be able to perform all their responsibilities. This is an essential prerequisite for the acceptance of Germany as an equal partner by NATO, the EU and the international community.

Membership of NATO corresponds to Germany‘s interests with regard to foreign and security policy, as long as NATO’s role remains that of a defensive alliance. The AfD believes that predictability in meeting commitments towards NATO allies is an important goal of German foreign and security policy, so that Germany can develop more political weight to shape policies, and gain influence. We advocate that any engagement of NATO must be aligned to German interests, and has to correspond to a clearly defined strategy.

Wherever German Armed Forces, as part of NATO operations, are involved beyond the borders of its Alliance partners’ territory, shall, in principle, only be carried out under a UN mandate, and only if German security interests are taken into account.

On Germany’s occupation by allied troops (i.e., the US):

…70 years after the end of World War II, and 25 years after the end of a divided Europe, the renegotiation of the status of Allied troops in Germany should be put up for discussion. The status of Allied troops needs to be adapted to Germany’s regained sovereignty. The AfD is committed to the withdrawal of all Allied troops stationed on German soil, and in particular of their nuclear weapons.

And on Russia:

The relationship with Russia is of prime importance, because European security cannot be attained without Russia’s involvement. Therefore, we strive for a peaceful solution of conflicts in Europe, whilst respecting the interests of all parties.

Why Is AfD Surging in Popularity?

AfD is a relatively new party – it was founded in 2013. It first began to gain a foothold among disenchanted voters in East Germany during the refugee crisis in 2017, but with the onset of the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis in Germany, their support has been growing and spreading. What originally made AfD so attractive in East Germany?

According to Manès Weisskircher who researches social movements, political parties, democracy, and the far right at the Institute of Political Science, TU Dresden, AfD’s support in the East can be primarily traced to three factors:

  1. The neoliberal ‘great transformation,’ which has massively changed the eastern German economy and continues to lead to emigration and anxiety over personal economic prospects.

  2. An ongoing sense of marginalization among East Germans who feel they have never been fully integrated since reunification and resent liberal immigration policies in this context.

  3. Deep dissatisfaction with the functioning of the political system and doubt in political participation.

Recent polling contains interesting findings with regards to the AfD. It shows that 44 percent of Germans supporting the party do not have far-right views, but they are more concerned with inflation (90 percent) and immigration (87 percent) than the general public (78 and 56 percent, respectively). A whopping 78 percent of those who said they would vote for AfD said they would do so to show they were unhappy with current policies.

The rise of the AfD is rooted in the crisis of German neoliberalism, and the current war in Ukraine that accompanies it. The idea that the West would cause Russia to collapse, divide it into pieces and plunder its natural resources has spectacularly backfired.

The German economy is instead the one in a freefall. In response, Berlin continues to liberalize immigration laws to attract more foreigners with the hope it will help the economy – this despite the fact that half of German citizens would like the country to take in fewer refugees than it currently does.

A record high of 71 percent of the German public are not satisfied with the work of the federal government, according to a recent Deutschlandtrend survey. The current government is unresponsive to the concerns of working class voters. Foreign minister Annalena Baerbock famously summed up that reality last year:

The AfD is the only party in Germany making the connection between Berlin’s bellicose policy towards Moscow (and increasingly Beijing as well) and the worsening economic conditions for Germans.

The Greens, rather than examine their own failings, are blaming voters for not fully understanding their policies. They’ve launched a “charm” offensive to better explain their wisdom while simultaneously escalating their charges against the AfD. Tobias Riegel writes at NachDenkSeiten [machine translation]:

The [Green] chairman of the Europe Committee in the Bundestag, [Anton] Hofreiter, is currently warning against the AfD and has accused it of treason. He also did not rule out a ban on the party, as reported by the media . Two sentences by Hofreiter are particularly striking. On the one hand:

“You have to be aware of the incredible danger that the AfD poses to democracy and the rule of law, as well as to the prosperity of many people; that has not yet arrived in all parts of society.”

And on the other hand:

“There is also insufficient awareness of the danger that the AfD poses to our country’s external security in this difficult situation with increasingly aggressive dictatorships such as Russia and China. The AfD is predominantly a group of traitors who act not in the interests of our country but in the interests of opposing powers.”

If you swap “AfD” for “Greens” and if you swap “Russia” for “USA”, you could almost think Hofreiter is talking about himself and his leading party friends in these quotes.

Meanwhile, the country’s Left Party, which is considered a direct descendant of the Socialist Unity Party that ruled East Germany until reunification, has completely collapsed after abandoning nearly all of its platform in an attempt to appear “ready to govern.” Much like the bourgeoisie Greens, the Left increasingly stands for neoliberal, pro-war and anti-Russia policies. Former Left voters have increasingly switched to the AfD in response.

As long as the AfD is the only party in Germany willing to connect the dots between US control over German foreign policy and the increasing toll that is taking on the citizens’ standard of living, it will likely continue to attract voters.

Why Is There Such an Outcry Over AfD?

For years now, the German establishment has been throwing the kitchen sink at the AfD. There are of course allegations of Russia connections. They hate the disabled. They are extremist and must be monitored.  A former AfD representative was also  allegedly part of a coup plan involving 25 geriatrics that were inspired by QAnon and were somehow going to take over the government. Stories on the coup plot almost always focus on the AfD link and warnings that they are getting “more extreme.”

Most of these scare stories about the AfD originate from Germany’s domestic intelligence agency, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), which last year won the right to surveil AfD members after judges allowed the party to be branded a “suspicious entity.”

German authorities are now able to monitor and intercept mail correspondence, phone calls and online conversations. It can also limit members’ ability to get employment in the public sector and make it more difficult to obtain licenses for weapons.

(In the past, the BfV investigated members of the Left Party suspecting them of intending to replace the existing economic, political and social order with a socialist or communist system.)

Much of this seems ripped straight out of the US playbook for dealing with Trump and unruly voters in general: ignore the voters, blame the voters, and then release spooks.

The media hysteria over the AfD is reminiscent over the constant ringing of alarm bells over the election of the Italian Prime Minister and her Brothers of Italy party last year. Fascism was on the march, they declared. Well, Meloni has turned out to be a pretty run-of-the-mill corporate stooge who toes the line on the EU and NATO. Even her anti-immigrant rhetoric gave way to ensuring the arrival of a certain number in order to maintain the supply of cheap labor for Italian businesses. And the freak out over Meloni died down as soon as she proved her devotion to the EU and NATO.

Let’s not pretend that any of the concern over the AfD is due to its proposed policies regarding German culture and immigrants. It is because the party is advocating for positions that are a direct threat to Brussels and Washington. If it went forward with efforts to get Germany off the euro or boot US troops out of the country, it would collapse the whole EU-NATO system.

Despite the media and intelligence agency pressure, the AfD only seems emboldened. Beyond the party platform, AfD members have since gone further in their criticisms of the US.

Here’s Member of the European Parliament Maximilian Krah:

“It is certain that the German government was informed of the sabotage beforehand by the Americans. This is the only explanation for Scholz’s awkward silence. With the addition of a woke and irresponsible warmonger like [Foreign Minister Annalena] Baerbock, who declares that Germany is at war with Russia, nothing surprises me.

The problem is that this is tearing the German economy to pieces and significantly impoverishes Germany. Moreover, the billions spent by Germany on this gas project, which ensured us cheap energy, are lost, but the coalition which governs Germany does not care. Officially, Scholz knows nothing. Apparently, we live in a democracy.”

The AfD is also increasingly critical of Berlin’s stance towards China, which it believes is being driven by US interests and Germany’s detriment. From  Deutsche Welle:

The AfD has positioned itself in opposition to the German government’s critical policy toward ChinaBerlin’s China Strategy, published in mid-July, for example, was denounced by Bystron, the AfD’s foreign policy spokesperson, as the “attempt to implement green-woke ideology and US geopolitical interests under the guise of a strategy for German foreign policy.”

The description of China in the strategy as a rival — as well as a partner and competitor — was for Bystron “the consequence of the US’ confrontational course toward China. This confrontation and division are not in the interests of Germany as an export nation,” he said.

For political scientist Wolfgang Schroeder from the University of Kassel, the AfD’s foreign policy positions demonstrate an attempt to set itself apart from the other German political parties. Geopolitically, said Schroeder, the AfD sees the traditional Western ties with the United States, which it regards as hegemonic, as having past their use-by date.

“The AfD considers Washington to be more part of the problem than part of the solution to the challenges facing Germany,” he told DW. “That’s because the AfD considers the US an imperial actor whose vested interests cannot be reconciled with those of Germany.”

The AfD is essentially calling for a return to the Angela Merkel foreign policy based on Wandel durch Handel (“transformation through trade”). It relied on cheap Russian gas imports and exports to its largest trading partner, China.

There is now a central disconnect to Germany’s foreign policy and domestic policy. As Berlin follows the wishes of the US, lives for the citizens of Germany will  continue to worsen. How can Germany reconcile this?

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Zeitenwende was essentially a promise to the US that Germany will from now on take up its sword in defense of US hegemony and morally superior purposes (such as Baerbock’s feminist foreign policy that aligns neatly with Washington’s enemy list) against Russia, China, Iran, and whoever else threatens the “rules-based order.”

The AfD, whether you agree or disagree with its other positions, is for now the sole German party standing against such an arrangement.

The German state’s harassment of the Left Party appears to have worked in getting it to abandon its previously “radical” goals of empowering workers, dissolving NATO and getting US troops out of Germany. We’ll have to wait and see what path the AfD takes.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 09/05/2023 – 02:00

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Prof. Alan Dershowitz (Harvard) vs. Prof. Tom Ginsburg (Chicago) on Whether Trump Is Disqualified Under § 3 of the 14th Amendment

Very glad to see substantive debates like this, this one moderated and organized by David Steele.

The post Prof. Alan Dershowitz (Harvard) vs. Prof. Tom Ginsburg (Chicago) on Whether Trump Is Disqualified Under § 3 of the 14th Amendment appeared first on Reason.com.

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Kishida’s Unpopularity Increases Risk Of BOJ Shift And Yen Intervention

Kishida’s Unpopularity Increases Risk Of BOJ Shift And Yen Intervention

By Masaki Kondo, Bloomberg markets live reporter and strategist.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s falling popularity adds to the risk that the Bank of Japan may surprise investors again with a policy shift that will make voters happier.

Political distress has emerged as a potential leading indicator for action in monetary and currency affairs since late 2022
When Japan intervened to prop up the yen in October, it wasn’t just the currency that was falling — Kishida’s administration’s approval rating was also plumbing new lows.

The government was drawing fire in opinion polls again in December, when the central bank unexpectedly raised the ceiling for yield-curve control. And when the BOJ caught investors off guard once more in July with a further adjustment to YCC, the PM’s popularity was yet again on the slide.

This isn’t to deny that underlying economic and market pressures are the fundamental drivers of monetary and currency policy. Nobody is suggesting that the government directs the central bank, which has its independence enshrined in law.

Yet there is a clear line that connects the weak yen to inflation, and inflation to unhappy voters. When it comes to the timing of actions that can take some of the sting out of inflation, recent history indicates opinion polls are at least worth watching.

It may also pay to keep an eye on the periodic meetings between Kishida and the BOJ governor. Many traders can probably recount that the then-Governor Haruhiko Kuroda raised concern over the yen when he met the prime minister about a month before raising the YCC ceiling in December.

Kazuo Ueda, who was chosen by Kishida to succeed Kuroda earlier this year, has also shown himself to be highly attuned to the plight of the yen. Ueda surprised BOJ watchers in July when he acknowledged that foreign-exchange volatility had been a factor in raising the YCC cap again.

The most recent public record of a meeting between the pair is Aug. 22, when they discussed financial conditions ahead of the gathering of global central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

That said, Kishida’s problems with voters go way beyond areas the BOJ can influence, even if he could bend the central bank to his will. The sources of dissatisfaction with the government range from a national ID card, to the country’s low birth rate, to the handling of waste water from the Fukushima nuclear plant.

But maybe all these caveats are immaterial. The link between the yen and inflation, and what this means to the government and the BOJ, is clear to see. Keeping tabs on opinion polls may be prudent until someone can show that they don’t matter.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/04/2023 – 23:00

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A Manufactured Hate

A Manufactured Hate

Authored by Paul Gottfried via American Greatness,

Thomas Klingenstein recently delivered a speech at the Claremont Institute that notes what should be obvious to most Americans. 

According to Klingenstein, racism in the US is now a “manufactured” problem,” and this tawdry invention allows the Democrats and the Left to increase their power by addressing a problem that they themselves have stirred up. Although Klingenstein does not deny that isolated cases of discrimination against blacks may occur, he regards these situations as sporadic but also gleefully played up by Democratic politicians and their media handservants.

When Joe Biden complains that white Americans are practicing “systemic racism” against blacks and that the US is being convulsed by white supremacist terrorists, he is clearly lying. But he and his handlers are acting as they do for a reason, which is not that they believe what they’re saying. They know that what they are loudly deploring will help shore up their party’s base consisting of the perpetually aggrieved. Black politicians who loyally serve the Democratic Party, like Sheila Jackson Lee, Cori Bush, Hakeem Jeffries, and Maxine Waters tell us breathlessly that white America is racist. Hearing this accusation may make their voters feel better about their social failures and even result in getting further government social programs targeted at inner cities.

Far more astonishingly, the never-ending invectives against “racist” white Americans doesn’t seem to upset most white voters. White Democrats in particular don’t mind being stigmatized as racists. Most white Americans may object to high gas prices and rising housing costs, but being attacked as racists for most of them (and here we have to exclude most Trump voters) may be like rain off a duck’s back.  According to a Harris Poll taken last year, 53% of white Americans believe for sure their race is systemically racist.

For me, this defamation of whites is a shameless lie. Not only are white Americans overwhelmingly not racist bigots, but they lick the feet of those who are making false charges against them. The question is why so many white Americans seem content in their role as penitent “systemic racists.” They show no displeasure when TV stations feature predominantly black actors, even in advertisements, sometimes to the near exclusion of whites, and when more and more of their “entertainment” focuses on black victimhood. Although most American whites do not yet obsess over their inherited racist sins, some of them fund blatantly antiwhite organizations like BLM and Antifa. Further, some particularly troubled whites even join those antiwhite riots sponsored by richer adherents of their bizarre creed.

An obvious reason why some whites behave so masochistically or weirdly is that they are conforming to what they think is expected of them. Those who run corporations, educational institutions, the media, wokeified churches and the deep state all push antiwhite racism; and this poisonous product determines social behavior, and even pseudo-religious conviction. Although this toxin may do incalculable damage to race relations, education, and even our entertainment, it does not usually affect the lives of those who mouth the required gibberish, at least not too directly.

Parents may grouse that their offspring are kept out of a prestigious school because of a racial quota. But they try not to make too much noise lest they hurt themselves socially or professionally. In any case their kids have access to other overpriced citadels of “higher education” if a particular university keeps them out to fill a quota. Obviously white house owners don’t want BLM or other violent “social justice” organizations rioting in their neighborhood. But as long as the residents keep garish BLM signs on their front lawns, they should be ok. The signs function in a way similar to the garlic sack or crucifix that was supposed to ward off vampires, according to Romanian legend.

Another reason that antiwhite racism is such a hot item is that it comes fused with other leftist targets.

Opponents of manufactured white racism are usually enemies of Christianity, “patriarchy,” and homophobia. Leftist bugaboos come in clusters. If you buy into one of the items, you are expected to take home the rest. I often receive letters from correspondents who insist that woke leftists really hate one of the stated targets on their list of villains but not really the other ones. It seems to me that the Left has made war on all their targets simultaneously.  

And if you want to hang with the powerful and influential, you’re going to have to pay lip service to all their madness. Otherwise, you might be mistaken for a Trumpite. Lately I’ve been impressed by how my former colleagues and younger relatives who belong to our state church belabor the now-ritualized observation: “Of course there’s systematic racism in this country.”

Although their message sounds like lunacy, I’m sure there are others with more influence than I have who will be pleased with this credal recitation.

The larger question is how such a loathsome, masochistic state religion got established in the first place.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/04/2023 – 22:30

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“Unprecedented Levels” Of Theft In Nation’s Capital Forces Supermarket Chain To Remove Name-Brand Items From Shelves

“Unprecedented Levels” Of Theft In Nation’s Capital Forces Supermarket Chain To Remove Name-Brand Items From Shelves

Walmart, Target, Kohl’s, Foot Locker, Dick’s Sporting Goods, and Dollar Tree, to name a few, have all raised concerns about out-of-control thefts in their stores nationwide. The latest is supermarket chain Giant Food, which warned about “unprecedented levels” of “shrink” – the loss of inventory due to circumstances such as retail theft – at one of its stores in Washington, DC. 

NBC Washington said the Giant Food, located at 1535 Alabama Ave SE, has already warned if rampant shoplifting continues, the supermarket will have to close its doors. 

The Giant on Alabama Avenue SE is the only full-service supermarket in the area, and if it closes, it will create a food desert in Southeast DC. Instead of closing, it seems the grocery chain has come up with a solution:

In a statement, Giant said it plans to remove national brand health and beauty care items and replace them with private label brands where possible. The new policy aims to reduce “unprecedented levels” of theft and make the store safer for shoppers and employees. 

“None of the tactics we deploy is the ultimate solution to the problem we face, but we continue to invest in efforts that will improve safety for our associates and customers and reduce theft,” part of the statement read. –NBC Washington

Replacing brand name items, such as Tide, Colgate, or Advil, with only private label products is a last-ditch effort to prevent the store from closing. 

DC’s failed progressive social justice reform policies have only emboldened criminals, as AP News warned in July: “Violent crime is rising sharply, fueled by more homicides and carjackings.” 

Major corporations who funded the ‘defund the police’ movement during the Covid era are getting what they deserve: A surge in thefts as soft on crime Democrats in control of many of the nation’s cities have only sparked a theft and violent crime wave. 

Retailers sounded the alarm on the theft wave this past earnings season. The number of times CEOs mentioned “shrink” on earnings calls soared to a record high.  

A new report last week drew a Mexican cartel connection in America’s retail theft epidemic that cost companies like Walmart, Target, Kohl’s, Home Depot, and Foot Locker, among others, tens of billions of dollars last year. Yet another failed Democrat policy to leave borders open. 

 Open borders are not so great after all… It’s time to reinforce law and order in the nation or face out-of-control theft waves now making it to suburbia. 

 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/04/2023 – 22:00

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Beijing Is Ceding The Economic Race As Growth Slows

Beijing Is Ceding The Economic Race As Growth Slows

By George Lei, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist

Forecasts for China’s 2023 and 2024 economic growth have been slashed on Wall Street over the past few weeks. The world’s second-largest economy now risks missing Beijing’s own growth target for a second straight year and could expand at a sub-5% pace for three years in a row — something unheard of since the death of Mao Zedong in 1976.

Stalling growth will surely have longer-term geopolitical implications. Odds are stacked against President Xi, who pledged last year to make China a “medium-developed country” by 2035. That’s also the time when China could dethrone the US to become the world’s No. 1 economy, if the stars are aligned. Such a prospect, however, looks increasingly out of reach given the current trajectories.

China’s strong growth and subsequent currency appreciation meant the country’s output, measured in dollars, has grown much faster than the US for over two decades. The nation’s GDP was around $1.2 trillion at the turn of the century, less than one-eighth of the US. Its share of US GDP climbed toward 70% in 2020 and topped 72% in 2021. That was comparable with Japan, whose dollar-denominated output reached almost 73% of US levels in 1995, before embarking on a downtrend ever since.

Last year was a watershed moment as China’s relative economic might versus the US declined after the second quarter, when a two-month lockdown of Shanghai wreaked havoc on sentiment and dented growth momentum. The nation’s GDP rose $1.3 trillion in 2022, compared with a $2.1 trillion gain in the US, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In the first half of 2023, Chinese GDP in dollar terms shrank — as the yuan lost almost 5% versus the greenback — while the US economy powered on, “opening a bigger gap in the global economic race” as my colleague Gerard DiPippo wrote. Chinese output as a share of the US now stands near 68%, on course for a second straight year of decline.

At the October party congress, President Xi set the goal for China to become a “medium-developed country” by 2035, which implies doubling the size of its economy and per-capita GDP from 2020 levels, and requires an average annual growth rate of around 4.7%. The latest Bloomberg survey of economists saw Chinese output expanding 5.1% this year, before moderating to 4.5% in 2024 and 2025. Given last year’s 3% expansion, the four-year average between 2022 and 2025 will amount to less than 4.3%. That number is sure to fall if policymakers refrain from major stimulus and growth momentum keeps deteriorating.

Two years ago, my colleagues Eric Zhu and Tom Orlik at Bloomberg Economics analyzed several scenarios and concluded that China will need 5%-plus growth as well as least a steady pace of reforms, and it also will need to avoid a full decoupling in order to economically dethrone the US in the next decade. Events since then have made their base case look optimistic, and the downside scenario more akin to reality. Beijing may choose to muddle through its present growth impasse and refrain from any “big bang” measures at the expense of never ascending to the pinnacle of the global economic competition.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/04/2023 – 21:30

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