US Stock-Bond Ratio Poised To Keep Downward Bias

US Stock-Bond Ratio Poised To Keep Downward Bias

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

The growth in the US stock-bond ratio is poised to keep falling, but yields on nominal and inflation bonds both bouncing from very oversold levels are likely to be choppy.

It’s generally a frustrating time after big moves as markets take time to settle down, and a new clear, tradeable trend becomes apparent. We are in one of those periods now, but yields should have an overall downwards bias, enough to keep pressure on the stock-bond ratio.

I highlighted a couple of weeks ago that stocks were on the overbought side versus bonds, and we may see a reversal. Since then the annual change of the stock-bond ratio has fallen from its one standard-deviation level.

Equities have run into some resistance around the 4500 level on the S&P. Countervailing forces from rising recession risks and a Fed still drumming the “higher for longer” mantra will conspire to keep equities in a range until the logjam is broken.

Bonds, though, may have a slight edge as they bounce from very oversold levels.

Real yields’ rise at the beginning of 2023 was close to the sharpest they had experienced in over 50 years. Their annual rate of change subsequently fell, but then has bounced again over the last few weeks.

Historically when moves have been very extreme it can lead to periods of choppiness in the breaks of the overall normalization trend. And even though real yields are less overbought, they are still stretched to the upside, meaning in the medium term they should have a downwards bias.

It’s similar for nominal yields. They are less overbought than they were, and face choppiness, but they should have an overall downwards bias in the longer term.

Moreover, as volatility settles down, +4% yields will look increasingly attractive to many buyers – leveraged and unleveraged – especially if recession risks are perceived to be rising (even though investors should not assume the usual investment rules apply in inflationary recessions).

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/04/2023 – 09:30

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/iqpJsMP Tyler Durden

Futures, Global Stocks Rise As China Property Rescue Kicks In; US Markets Closed For Labor Day

Futures, Global Stocks Rise As China Property Rescue Kicks In; US Markets Closed For Labor Day

US index futures and global equity markets rose on Monday in razor-thin holiday trading with sentiment boosted by the latest Chinese property stimulus measures coupled by wagers that global interest rates are approaching a peak. As of 8:30am, futures contracts for both S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 gained about 0.2% as stock markets in Asia and Europe rallied. US cash markets are today closed for the Labor day weekend. Cash bonds are also closed for trading with Treasury futures slightly lower on the session, while the dollar index dipped offsetting a gain in the Chinese yuan. Oil traded at 2023 highs of $85.50.

Stocks rose on Friday after the August jobs report showed a rapidly cooling labor market, offering the Fed room to pause rate increases this month. Markets built on those gains after news of a weekend surge in home sales in two of China’s biggest cities, an early sign that government efforts to cushion a record housing slowdown is helping. 

Shanghai and Beijing are seen benefiting the most from authorities’ announcement on Thursday that lowered down-payment thresholds across the nation. The Hang Seng index jumped more than 3% Monday before paring gains, while a Bloomberg gauge of Chinese developers jumped as much as 8.7%.

China’s National Development and Reform Commission will set up a new bureau to oversee the development of the private economy in the latest boost to the sector.

“The incoming data supports our view of a ‘softish’ landing for the US economy, i.e., inflation moving closer to the Federal Reserve’s target without a recession this year,” said UBS Global Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele. “But remaining uncertainties are likely to keep investors guessing the Fed’s next move and keep market price action choppy.” According to the latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey, this year’s rally is strong enough to withstand another leg higher for bond yields. Central banks in Australia and Canada are expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week.

Commenting on China, Haefele said that “we have been looking for more significant property rescue measures for some time to shore up sentiment and consumer confidence. This now appears to be materializing in a more convincing way.”

European stocks rose  after a broadly positive session in Asia where the latest support measures from the Chinese government underpinned sentiment. Risk assets are also benefiting from a growing expectation that the Fed is done raising rates. The Stoxx 600 is up 0.8%, led by gains in the mining, technology and travel sectors. Here are the most notable European movers:

  • CD Projekt shares jump as much as 7.2% after Qontigo index provider added the Polish computer and video game maker to the Stoxx Europe 600 benchmark from Sept. 18
  • Novo Nordisk rises as much as 2.3% to another record high on the back of the immense success of its weight-loss drugs, increasing its valuation gap over LVMH as Europe’s most valuable listed firm
  • Almirall shares gain as much as 4.8%, the most since February, after the Spanish pharmaceutical company said it has executed acquisition rights for an Alzheimer’s disease product in Spain
  • Handelsbanken gains as much as 3%, the most since June, after Swedish business daily Dagens Industri named the Swedish lender its stock of the week, recommending its readers to buy the stock
  • Zealand Pharma rises as much 6.5% after Nordea boosted its price target for the pharmaceutical firm, seeing it as a good alternative to benefit from the booming obesity treatment market
  • Ashtead Technology gains as much as 6.1% after the subsea equipment rental, advanced technologies and solutions provider delivered what Liberum calls “a typically strong set of results”
  • Thales shares gain as much as 2.6% after Jefferies raised to buy from hold, saying the French defense company’s acquisitions will provide momentum for the stock
  • Vestas shares dip after BofA cut the wind turbine maker’s PT to reflect lower 2025 offshore expectations, projecting this will put some pressure on margin recovery in the coming years
  • Monte dei Paschi declines 3% as Italy’s governing coalition is fighting over plans to sell state-owned assets, including a stake in the lender; Equita sees an overhang risk if the government sells a stake
  • Advanced Medical Solutions falls as much as 34%, the most on record, after removing expectations of royalty income from a licensee partner and said de-stocking processes are taking longer than expected
  • SynAct Pharma falls as much as 82% after the Swedish biotechnology firm’s rheumatoid arthritis drug resomelagon failed to meet the main goal of a mid-stage clinical trial

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks headed for their best day in a week, boosted by a rally in Hong Kong-listed Chinese shares after authorities rolled out more stimulus measures to revive the property sector. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.1%, advancing for a sixth session, aided by gains in Tencent and Alibaba. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index was the best performing gauge in early trade, lifted by property shares. In Japan, equities already at the highest level since 1990 continued to gain, boosted by Toyota after Mizuho raised its price target of the world’s No. 1 carmaker.

  • The Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were the biggest gainers amid optimism in the property sector after recent reports of measures to support the industry and with shares in developer Country Garden Holdings surging by a double-digit percentage after it made a payment on a ringgit-denominated bond and won approval to extend its onshore private bond maturity by three years, while President Xi had also pledged to widen market access for the service industry and promote cross-border service trade. Lowered mortgage requirements and data over the weekend showed sales jumped, following Friday’s typhoon induced market closure. The CSI 300 Index gained as much as 1.7%.
  • Australia’s ASX 200 was positive with the resources sector underpinned after Albemarle sweetened its offer for Liontown Resources although further advances in the index were limited by soft data and ahead of tomorrow’s RBA meeting.
  • Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained as automakers were boosted by higher US sales updates and with Japan’s government to set aside around JPY 20bln to support fishery businesses following China’s import ban on Japanese marine products.
  • Indian stocks gained for the second straight session, in-line with regional peers, as technology and metal companies rallied.
  • The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.4% to 65,628.14 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 0.5% to 19,528.80. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.1% for the day. Metal stocks climbed on optimism that China’s measures to aide its property sector will boost outlook for commodity prices. A sub-gauge of metal stocks on the BSE closed at its highest level since April 2022, rising 2.7%.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as much as 0.18% after rising for seven straight weeks, its longest such streak since 2018.

In rates, Treasury futures edged lower with no cash trading today due to the Labor Day holiday. Interest-rate swap traders see slightly less than a 50% chance of another hike by November; after that, they’ve fully priced in a quarter-point cut by June. In Europe, bond yields inched higher with rate-setters seemingly divided on whether policy needs to be tightened further this month, given above-forecast inflation and sluggish growth. Investors will also be watching speeches from a raft of Federal Reserve officials including Raphael Bostic and Susan Collins this week, after weaker payroll data prompted traders to price out a final Fed rate hike for this cycle.

In commodities, oil prices steadied at 2023 highs, with WTI crude flat around $85.6 per barrel, after climbing last week on Russia’s announcement that it will extend export curbs. Saudi Arabia is widely expected to follow suit by pushing its voluntary curbs into October.

 

We will preview the week’s main events in more detail shortly, but here is a summary of the top events on deck:

Monday

  • ECB President Christine Lagarde makes speech at seminar organized by the European Economics & Financial Center,

Tuesday

  • Australia current account, rate decision
  • Japan household spending
  • China Caixin services PMI
  • Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI, PPI
  • US factory orders
  • ECB President Christine Lagarde chairs panel focused on central banks and international sanctions at ECB Legal Conference,

Wednesday

  • Australia GDP
  • Eurozone retail sales
  • Germany factory orders
  • US trade
  • Canada rate decision, Wednesday
  • Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey testifies to the UK parliament’s Treasury Select Committee
  • Federal Reserve issues Beige Book economic survey
  • Boston Fed President Susan Collins speaks on the economy at New England Council

Thursday

  • China trade, forex reserves
  • Eurozone GDP
  • US initial jobless claims
  • Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem to speak on the Economic Progress Report
  • New York Fed President John Williams participates in moderated discussion at the Bloomberg Market Forum
  • Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks on economic outlook at Broward College

Friday

  • Japan GDP
  • France industrial production
  • Germany CPI

Today’s calendar, is empty, with Labor Day holiday in both ths US and Canada.

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • European stocks climbed, bolstered by signs China’s stimulus measures are seeping through into the economy and wagers that global interest rates are approaching a peak.
  • Turkish inflation accelerated to the fastest this year, underscoring the central bank’s challenge as it raises interest rates to try to end a cost-of-living crisis.
  • Chinese stocks jumped after the nation rolled out further property support measures, the latest in an intensifying campaign to rescue the beleaguered sector that’s been dragging down the economy.
  • Oil steadied near the highest level since November on expectations that supply cuts by OPEC+ leaders will keep tightening the market.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mostly higher led by strength in China’s property sector although the upside was capped for some of the regional bourses amid a thinned start to the week for global markets owing to the US Labor Day holiday. ASX 200 was positive with the resources sector underpinned after Albemarle sweetened its offer for Liontown Resources although further advances in the index were limited by soft data and ahead of tomorrow’s RBA meeting. Nikkei 225 gained as automakers were boosted by higher US sales updates and with Japan’s government to set aside around JPY 20bln to support fishery businesses following China’s import ban on Japanese marine products. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were the biggest gainers amid optimism in the property sector after recent reports of measures to support the industry and with shares in developer Country Garden Holdings surging by a double-digit percentage after it made a payment on a ringgit-denominated bond and won approval to extend its onshore private bond maturity by three years, while President Xi had also pledged to widen market access for the service industry and promote cross-border service trade. US equity futures were uneventful and lacked direction after the post-NFP whipsawing. European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures +0.3% after the cash market closed down 0.3% on Friday.

Asian News

  • Chinese President Xi said China will widen market access for the service industry and promote cross-border service trade. Xi also stated that they will promote the integrated development of high-end manufacturing and modern service industries, as well as focus on expanding the domestic market and proactively expanding the import of high-quality services, according to Reuters.
  • China state planner vice chairman said the central government approved setting up a special bureau within the NDRC for the development of the private economy, while it was separately reported that China’s MIIT is to conduct inspections on reducing business burdens.
  • US President Biden said he is disappointed that Chinese President Xi is not attending the G20, according to Reuters.
  • Italy’s Foreign Minister said the Belt and Road Initiative deal with China did not bring the results that they had expected, according to Reuters.
  • Japan’s government is to set aside around JPY 20bln to support fishery businesses following China’s import ban on Japanese marine products, according to Kyodo.

European stocks rise after a broadly positive session in Asia where the latest support measures from the Chinese government underpinned sentiment.  Risk assets are also benefiting from a growing expectation that the Fed is done raising rates. The Stoxx 600 is up 0.8%, led by gains in the mining, technology and travel sectors

European news

  • UK Chancellor Hunt said inflation is on track to halve by year-end and pressure on household budgets will ease as inflation cools, according to Reuters.
  • EU’s Gentiloni said he was confident an agreement over re-implementing EU budget rules would be reached by year-end and the suspension of the EU Stability and Growth Pact won’t be extended into 2024, according to Reuters.
  • German Finance Minister Lindner said in an interview with broadcaster ARD that there won’t be another special budget in Germany during the current legislative term.
  • Italy’s Economy Minister Giorgetti confirmed the 2024 GDP growth target of 1% and said the government supports debt reduction policy, while he added that the windfall tax on banks can be improved, according to Reuters.

FX

  • DXY was rangebound after last Friday’s momentum waned and with US participants away for Labor Day.
  • EUR/USD found some slight respite after the recent slump beneath the 1.0800 handle.
  • GBP/USD attempted to nurse some of its losses but struggled with resistance at the 1.2600 level, while there were recent comments from UK Chancellor Hunt that inflation is on track to halve by year-end.
  • USD/JPY traded sideways and held onto the 146.00 status in the absence of any tier-1 data releases
  • Antipodeans mildly benefitted from the positive risk tone, China developer optimism and firmer CNY fixing.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1786 vs exp. 7.2795 (prev. 7.1788)

Fixed Income

  • 10yr UST futures languished at post-NFP lows after bear steepening on Friday in the wake of hotter-than-expected ISM manufacturing and mixed jobs data, with demand also not helped by the closure of US markets on Monday.
  • Bund futures marginally extended on recent declines further beneath the 132.00 level.
  • 10yr JGB futures were subdued amid spillover selling from global peers and despite the BoJ’s presence in the market for nearly JPY 1.2tln of JGBs on top of its fixed-rate operations.

Commodities

  • Crude futures were uneventful but held on to recent spoils after climbing to the highest in seven months.
  • UAE’s Adnoc set October Murban crude OSP at USD 87.28/bbl which is an increase from the September OSP of USD 80.78/bbl, according to Reuters.
  • Australia’s Offshore Alliance and Legeneering reached an agreement on decommissioning rates for Thevenard offshore decommissioning work scopes which will see members lock in a 20 dollars per hour uplift in the rates previously offered, while Legeneering agreed to align all offshore maintenance rates and conditions with the union-negotiated EBA for Woodside (WDS AT) FPSO’s.
  • Spot gold eked marginal gains as the greenback took a breather following last Friday’s advances.
  • Copper futures were kept afloat amid the property sector optimism in its largest purchaser China.

Geopolitics

  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said he will propose to dismiss Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov this week and replace him with Rustem Umerov who is the chief of Ukraine’s main privatisation fund. Furthermore, Zelensky said he held talks with French President Macron and struck a deal on training Ukrainian pilots in France, according to Reuters.
  • Russia launched drone strikes on Ukraine’s Odesa port region on Sunday ahead of talks on Monday between Turkish President Erdogan and Russian President Putin on restarting grain exports through the Black Sea, according to FT.
  • Russian Defence Ministry said it shot down Ukrainian drones over Russia’s Kursk region and destroyed four high-speed boats with Ukrainian forces in the Black Sea, according to Reuters.
  • Traffic on the Crimean Bridge connecting Russia with the Crimean Peninsula was temporarily suspended on Sunday but has since resumed, while the reason for the suspension was not disclosed, according to Reuters.
  • US is to send its first depleted uranium rounds to Ukraine, according to sources cited by Reuters pm Friday.
  • South African President Ramaphosa said an inquiry found no evidence to support US claims that a Russian cargo ship transported weapons from South Africa destined for Russia, while he added that no permit was issued for the export of arms and no arms were exported, according to Reuters and FT.
  • Chinese gate-crashers at US bases reportedly spark espionage concerns and Washington has tracked about 100 incidents involving Chinese nationals trying to access American military and other installations, according to WSJ.

US Event Calendar

  • Labor Day Weekend

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I thought the most difficult thing over the weekend was going to be hosting a Laser Quest party for 40 screaming kids but that was relatively easy going versus watching “Everything Everywhere All At Once”. My wife and I thought it was such utter nonsense that we went to bed halfway through. 7 Oscars including best film perhaps suggest it’s us and not the film but unless the second half suddenly comes to life I think an extra hour in bed was more productive. Feel free to tell me I’m wrong about it!

So due to a bad film I’m more rested than expected as we start a new week. Normally on a Monday we preview the week ahead first but it’s not really a top tier week for releases (starting with a US holiday today) and last week was a fascinating one, especially on Friday with the payrolls release painting a relatively confusing picture. So we’ll review that first.

The headline number came in at +187k (vs +170k expected), a slight upside surprise but with -110k of downward revisions to the prior two months. Indeed payrolls have been downgraded from their initial print for the last 7 months now (every month in 2023 and totalling 355k) and June’s print which when released was +209k has been revised down twice to ‘only’ +105k now. So who knows what August will actually look like in a couple of months’ time? Indeed, remember that payrolls went on a run of 13 successive beats until early this summer. So maybe economists weren’t as wrong as they continuously appeared in real time. The big surprise in the report was a meaningful increase in the unemployment rate for August, which rose to 3.8% (vs 3.5% expected) as the household survey showed a +514k increase in the number of unemployed alongside a +222k gain in employment, which did though have a positive effect of helping to lift the labour force participation rate 0.2pp to 62.8% – the highest since just before the pandemic (63.3%). There was more confusion as although average hourly earnings growth (+0.2% vs. +0.4%) fell, hours worked ticked up a tenth to 34.4hrs, resulting in our economists’ payroll proxy for nominal compensation growth actually increasing to 6.2% annualised for the current quarter and 6.1% compared to a year ago.

We’ve said this a lot recently but there was something for everyone in the release. The soft landing crowd will be pleased that the labour market is softening without much stress at the moment. However the hard landing argument must be buoyed by the huge downward momentum in recent months and revisions in payrolls. Any path to a hard landing, outside of a shock, has to go via signs of a soft landing first.

Adding to the conflicting data, following payrolls the ISM manufacturing print came in slightly stronger than anticipated at 47.6 (vs 47 expected). However, prices paid came in firmly above expectations at 48.4 (vs 44.0 expected), suggesting that goods disinflation is moderating.

Overall, the mixed data releases on Friday reduced expectations of another hike by the Fed, with markets now seeing the chances of a 25bps rate hike across the next two meetings at 38%, from 48% on Thursday and 63% a week earlier. Meanwhile, the chances of a September hike by the ECB are now priced at 23%, their lowest since early May and down from 55% last Wednesday. The decline mostly came after encouraging details of the euro area inflation print and less hawkish ECB commentary on Thursday.

US Treasuries initially rallied hard (10yr -5bps) off the back of the payrolls release. However, the gains were quickly erased before yields increased a bit more following the ISM print as well as after comments by Cleveland Fed President Mester emphasising that US inflation remains too high despite its recent improvements. There was a lot of chatter about the upcoming Treasury and corporate supply as well.

Oil rising would have contributed following reports of falling Saudi Arabia exports and a suggestion by Russia’s Novak that OPEC+ may announce new oil export limits over the next week. WTI oil futures reached $85.55/bl, after rising +2.30% on Friday, and +7.17% week-on-week. This marked its strongest weekly advance since March, and highest level since November last year. Brent largely followed suit, rising +4.82% week-on-week (and +1.95% on Friday) to $88.55/bbl.

The 10yr Treasury yield finished Friday up +7.1bps (+12bps from the post payroll lows) but closed the week down -5.7bps after softer data releases earlier in the week. 2yr yields rose by a modest +1.6bps on Friday but was down -19.9bps in weekly terms, its largest weekly decline since March. As a result, the 2s10s curve rose by +14.1bps week-on-week in a bull steepening move (and +5.5bps on Friday). European fixed income followed the US on Friday, with 10yr German bunds rising +8.4bps on Friday (and -1.3bps week-on-week).

The S&P 500 managed to eke out a small gain on Friday (+0.18%). This left the index up +2.50% over the week, its strongest weekly performance since mid-June. Megacap stocks underperformed on Friday as the FANG+ index slipped -0.16%, primarily driven by Tesla (-5.06%) after it cut prices in China for a second time in two weeks. In weekly terms, the FANG+ index gained +4.34%, the best weekly performance since May. Similarly, the NASDAQ was -0.02% on Friday but gained +3.25% week-on-week. Turning to Europe, the STOXX 600 climbed +1.49% week-on-week (-0.01% on Friday).

Asian equity markets are higher at the start of the week on prospects of no more interest rate hikes from the Fed coupled with expectations that the latest stimulus measures by Beijing will shore up economic growth. As I check my screens, Chinese markets are outperforming with the Hang Seng (+2.61%) leading gains after being closed on Friday due to a typhoon. They are buoyed by a big rally in Chinese property stocks (c.+8%) while the CSI (+1.48%) and the Shanghai Composite (+1.11%) are also trading sharply higher. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.58%) and the KOSPI (+0.35%) are also trading in positive territory. US stock futures are flat. Meanwhile, there is no trading of USTs due to today’s US holiday.

The next round of US releases this week include factory orders (tomorrow) and more interestingly the ISM services and trade balance on Wednesday. Our US economists expect the ISM gauge to rebound to 53.9 from 52.7 in July. Consumer credit data on Friday will round out the week.

This week will be an interesting one for central banks. The RBA are expected to stay on hold tomorrow following recent softer data (Lowe’s final meeting) and then the BoC will now more likely stay on hold on Wednesday following a surprising -0.2% fall in Q2 GDP on Friday against expectations of +1.2%. Later on Wednesday the Fed’s Beige Book will show whether the strong start to Q3 US data is corroborated. Over in Europe, highlights include ECB’s consumer expectations survey and inflation expectations tomorrow. In addition, we will see the BoE’s Decision Maker Panel survey on Thursday as well as a long list of ECB speakers throughout the week, as there are with the Fed. In Asia, two appearances from BoJ officials will also be of interest. Our Chief Japan economist expects markets to be surprised if either emphasises the need for policy normalisation soon.

Back to economic data. Important releases for Germany include the trade balance on Monday and factory orders on Wednesday, followed by industrial production on Thursday. In France, similar indicators will be released, including the trade balance on Thursday and industrial production on Friday. Zooming out to the Eurozone-level data, the July PPI report tomorrow and retail sales on Wednesday will be among the highlights.

Trade data will be among the highlights in China this week, with the release due on Thursday. The Caixin services PMI release tomorrow will round out other PMI reports released last week that showed an improvement in manufacturing but a miss in the official non-manufacturing gauge.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/04/2023 – 09:01

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/PBO7eU0 Tyler Durden

Watch: Fauci Squirms As CNN Anchor Confronts Him With Data Showing Masks Don’t Work

Watch: Fauci Squirms As CNN Anchor Confronts Him With Data Showing Masks Don’t Work

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Anthony Fauci refused to back away from the recommendation of face masks Saturday as CNN (of all networks) confronted him with a study showing that they have no effect on preventing the spread of COVID.

After Fauci claimed “there have been many studies indicate the benefit of wearing masks,” Anchor Michael Smerconish brought up the Cochrane review of masks, one of umpteen studies that have all found that the face coverings do little to nothing against COVID transmission.

“When you’re talking about the effect on the epidemic or the pandemic as a whole, the data are less strong,” Fauci squirmingly admitted, but then went on to suggest people should still wear them anyway.

“There are other studies, Michael, that show at an individual level, for individuals they might be protective,” Fauci claimed.

Senator Rand Paul blasted Fauci for spreading “more subterfuge”:

Others chimed in:

Elsewhere during the interview Fauci said he hopes people will comply with wearing masks again, while stating “we’re not talking there’s forcing anybody to do anything.”

He continued, “We’re not talking about mandates or forcing anybody but when you have a situation where the volume of cases in society gets to a reasonably high level, particularly the vulnerable, those who are elderly, and those with underlying conditions are going to be more susceptible and vulnerable if they do get infected to get severe disease leading to hospitalization.”

“I would hope that if in fact we get to the point where the volume of cases is such an organization’s like the CDC recommend, CDC doesn’t mandate anything, I mean, recommends that people wear masks, I would hope that they abide by the recommendation and take into account the risk to themselves and to their families,” Fauci further stated.

He continued, “People keep thinking that the federal government is going to mandate that you wear a mask, that’s not going to happen,” he said. “But there may be individual institutions, organizations that are going to say, if you want to come to work, you’ve got to wear a mask.”

Here is the full interview:

As we have highlighted, there is a creeping attempt to bring back masking and COVID restrictions despite no large bounce in cases and the fact that they just don’t work.

Related:

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Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/04/2023 – 08:30

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/afW5Gst Tyler Durden

Zelensky Sacks Defense Minister In Biggest Shake-Up Since War’s Start

Zelensky Sacks Defense Minister In Biggest Shake-Up Since War’s Start

After days of rumors and speculation, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has confirmed that he is replacing Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov, which comes at a moment of the faltering counteroffensive, and amid a corruption probe into defense ministry purchases and potential diversion of state funds.

“Reznikov has gone through more than 550 days of full-scale war. I believe that the ministry needs new approaches and other formats of interaction with both the military and society at large,” Zelensky announced Sunday evening. 

He said that he’s tapping the head of Ukraine’s State Property Fund Rustem Umerov as a replacement to the top defense post. Reznikov had been at the helm through a year-and-a-half since the Russian invasion.

Without doubt, it constitutes the most significant shake-up in Ukraine’s government and military since the war’s start. Reznikov confirmed Monday that he has formally submitted his resignation, and he’s expected to be appointed to a prime diplomatic post, such as the ambassador to the UK.

Reznikov said back in January 2023, “We are carrying out NATO’s mission today. They aren’t shedding their blood. We’re shedding ours. That’s why they’re required to supply us with weapons.” His face and words have been frequently featured in international reports on how the war effort is going, often standing beside Zelensky.

Another controversial statement of his came in July 2022, when he said, “We are interested in testing modern systems in the fight against the enemy, and we are inviting arms manufacturers to test the new products here.” He’s been seen as instrumental in getting Western governments, especially the US and UK, to fork over tens of billions of dollars in defense aid, including M1 Abrams and other tanks. He has said this is vital for the defense of Ukraine as a “de facto” NATO member.

But he’s also long angrily complained that Ukraine’s arsenal is ‘almost exhausted’ and has been constant in demanding more quantities of advanced weapons from Western partners, but especially artillery shells to face down Russia’s superior firepower on the front lines.

Days prior to his stepping down Monday, Bloomberg wrote that Reznikov has been front and center in an anti-graft probe, citing local Ukrainian media:

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s anti-graft crackdown is fueling speculation that he may dismiss Ukraine’s defense minister following accusations of corruption linked to procuring military supplies.

The Ukrayinska Pravda newspaper, citing sources it didn’t name, said on Thursday Minister Oleksii Reznikov may be replaced as early as next week. The report followed accusations from anti-corruption activists and media that under his leadership the ministry has purchased food and uniforms at inflated prices. It also coincides with comments from a lawmaker that Reznikov may be shifted to the post of Kyiv’s ambassador to the UK.

High-ranking military officers and Kiev officials have for months come under scrutiny for driving expensive luxury cars and acquiring expensive villas. Separately, the Ministry of Agriculture has also recently been under for inflated pasta purchases, which caused a reported loss for state coffers of at least $1.7 million, and triggering suspicions that corrupt officials lined their pockets. This seems to be a theme in what has for years been ranked as Europe’s most corrupt country.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/04/2023 – 08:05

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/LtFyanT Tyler Durden

Prof. Richard Re (Virginia) on “Does the Discourse on 303 Creative Portend a Standing Realignment?”

I saw this new article by Prof. Richard Re, a leading scholar of federal courts law and my former UCLA colleague, and asked him if he would guest-blog about it; I’m delighted to say that he kindly agreed. Here’s the abstract:

Perhaps the most surprising feature of the last Supreme Court term was the extraordinary public discourse on 303 Creative LLC v. Elenis. According to many commentators, the Court decided what was really a “fake” or “made up” case brought by someone who asserted standing merely because “she worries.”

As a doctrinal matter, these criticisms are unfounded. But what makes this episode interesting is that the criticisms came from the legal left, which has long been associated with expansive principles of standing.

Doubts about standing in 303 Creative may therefore portend a broader standing realignment, in which liberal justices become jurisdictionally hawkish. In the past, justices who found themselves out of power have often tried to tighten justiciability principles. So, now that the Court has shifted decidedly rightward, it makes some sense for there to be an ideological reversal on federal court jurisdiction.

 

The post Prof. Richard Re (Virginia) on "Does the Discourse on <i>303 Creative</i> Portend a Standing Realignment?" appeared first on Reason.com.

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If You Need Pain Pills, Politicians Want To Monitor Your Body Chemistry


A woman holds a bottle of pills while speaking to a doctor on a tablet over telemedicine. | Dragonimages | Dreamstime.com

What if your medical conditions could be monitored from a distance to assess your health and adjust treatment plans based on real-time information? What if the same technology could be used to track your use of medications, such as opioids, to make sure you’re not using them in frequencies and dosages frowned upon by bureaucrats who’ve never met you? You might already have guessed that it’s that second implementation of the technology that interests politicians, who want to remotely monitor our body chemistry to stop us from getting high.

Big Brother Will See You Now

“Not later than 18 months after the date of enactment of this Act, the Comptroller General of the United States shall conduct a study and submit to the Committee on Energy and Commerce of the House of Representatives and the Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions and the Committee on Finance of the Senate a report on the use of remote monitoring with respect to individuals who are prescribed opioids,” reads a small section inserted into the Support for Patients and Communities Reauthorization Act, which has 63 cosponsors in the House of Representatives. The program includes “identification of cohorts of individuals who stand to benefit the most from remote monitoring when prescribed opioids.”

What a future our political leaders envision, in which high-tech snitches tell unblinking overlords about our use of painkillers—or any other health data they desire.

“A government‐​sanctioned study like the proposed one by GAO will no doubt show that, given current or projected technologies, it is possible to remotely monitor how patients use opioids through their physiological responses,” warn the Cato Institute’s Jeffrey A. Singer, a senior fellow and general surgeon, and Patrick G. Eddington, a senior fellow in homeland security and civil liberties. “With such data in hand, misinformed anti‐​opioid crusaders in Congress will then take the next ‘logical’ step — legislation requiring all patients prescribed opioids for any reason to be remotely monitored (another example of ‘cops practicing medicine.’)”

“This will intimidate health care practitioners into further curtailing opioid prescribing to their patients in pain,” they add. “This simply exacerbates the misery that state and federal opioid prescribing policies have already inflicted on them that is driving many to suicide and some to homicide.”

That pain is undertreated is beyond question. Last year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) acknowledged that opioid guidelines have been inflexibly interpreted. The CDC emphasized that “some policies purportedly drawn from the 2016 CDC Opioid Prescribing Guideline have been notably inconsistent with it and have gone well beyond its clinical recommendations” resulting in “untreated and undertreated pain.”

Physicians are leery of prescribing opioids for fear the DEA will target them and deprive them of their livelihoods and their freedom. Patients fear being labeled as drug-seekers and cut off from medication that lets them function. Remote real-time monitoring of body chemistry won’t calm anybody’s concerns about being second-guessed by bureaucrats. Resentment of and resistance to such intrusive surveillance is guaranteed given that diabetics have already told researchers that such monitoring is unwelcome.

Diabetics Don’t Like Big Brother Either

“For people who equate remote digital monitoring with loss of autonomy over their diabetes management, digital health represents a step away from patient-centered care,” Theodora Oikonomidi of the University of Paris and the Doctoral Network of the French School of Public Health wrote in 2021 about the results of a large international survey regarding diabetes monitoring. The more than 1,000 people surveyed didn’t object to every sort of remote monitoring, but 40 percent of the monitoring scenarios that were presented were rated as “very or extremely intrusive.” Respondents especially objected to food monitoring, real-time feedback from a physician, and private-sector data handling.

“Participants worried that giving their physician access to fine-grain data about their diabetes could lead to judgment and criticism by their physician if the captured data revealed ‘poor’ diabetes ‘control’ and nutrition habits,” Oikonomidi wrote. “Participants wanted more control over monitoring settings, such as limiting which data they share with their physician.”

If diabetes patients don’t like feeling judged about meal choices and blood chemistry, imagine how pain patients will feel about constant surveillance of their fentanyl intake. Nobody likes being put under a microscope over the decisions they make for their own lives, and with pain patients the unseen officials peering through the microscope could impose coercive consequences affecting their health and liberty.

To their credit, the authors of the survey conclude that “shared decision-making could help patients identify the [remote digital monitoring] that best aligns with their values and lifestyle.” They recognize that the potential benefits of such monitoring can be best realized if patients aren’t pushed beyond their comfort levels. And there is real potential here. As Cato’s Singer and Eddington point out, “technologies to remotely monitor blood pressure, EKGs, oxygenation, and more are either already available or soon will be. Private technology companies, funded by venture capital, continue to develop these devices, responding to the growing market for telehealth services.”

Cops Practicing Medicine Taint Both Cops and Medicine

But that’s not what politicians have in mind when they contemplate remote government monitoring of patients prescribed opioids to treat their pain. “The wording of the study language is too broad,” point out Singer and Eddington. “It doesn’t talk about remote monitoring for treating opioid use disorder or dependency, but just remote monitoring of patients on opioids.” The implication is that every pain prescription will come with a requirement akin to the world’s nosiest ankle bracelet, tracking not just location but medication use, with every popped pill second-guessed by a drug warrior at the other end of a telemetry chain.

Drug warriors threaten not just privacy, bodily autonomy, and doctor-patient relationships with such intrusive schemes; they also threaten the further development of promising medical technology. With diabetics already skittish about remote data monitoring and drug warriors potentially turning such monitoring into explicit surveillance of the most private areas of our lives, the whole field may become tainted as a manifestation of Big Brother in a lab coat. Cops practicing medicine can fuel resentment of not just cops, but also of medicine.

People need pain medication. And if some people use the same or similar medications for recreational purposes, or flat-out abuse such drugs to the detriment of their health, that’s just part of life and probably unavoidable. As the CDC acknowledges, we have a problem with the undertreatment of pain. It’s not worth exacerbating that problem, or turning the country into a medical surveillance state, in the vain hope that somehow the government will stop people from getting high.

The post If You Need Pain Pills, Politicians Want To Monitor Your Body Chemistry appeared first on Reason.com.

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Pfizer Asks Court To Revoke Moderna’s COVID-19 Vaccine Patents

Pfizer Asks Court To Revoke Moderna’s COVID-19 Vaccine Patents

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Pfizer and its partner BioNTech have asked a U.S. court to revoke Moderna’s patents for COVID-19 vaccine technology.

A pedestrian passes Pfizer’s New York City headquarters. (Jeenah Moon/Getty Images)

Pfizer and BioNTech said in new filings to the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office’s Patent Trial and Appeal Board that Moderna’s patents are so broad that they essentially “coopt the entire field” of messenger RNA technology, which is used in some COVID-19 vaccines.

The patents, obtained during the COVID-19 pandemic, are “unimaginably broad” and cover technology that was known long before 2015, when Moderna says it developed the technology, one filing stated.

Moderna didn’t respond to a request for comment.

One Moderna patent being challenged covers messenger RNA vaccines with the spike protein or spike protein subunit of any betacoronavirus, such as COVID-19, delivered into the human body through a lipid delivery system. Another covers similar technology.

Pfizer and BioNTech are seeking an inter partes review of a trial at the board that would go over whether the technology Moderna patented was already described.

Scientists found in 1990 that messenger RNA could be used in ways that would improve vaccines, and in 1993, scientists found that vaccines with the technology produced an immune response, Pfizer and BioNTech told the court.

They pointed to experiments that Dr. Robert Malone and others reported in 1990 in Science magazine and tests described in a 1993 paper in the European Journal of Immunology.

Federal law governing patents says that a person shall be entitled to a patent unless the claimed invention was “patented, described in a printed publication, or in public use, on sale, or otherwise available to the public before the effective filing date of the claimed invention.”

Inter partes reviews adjudicate challenges on that basis, an area of patent law known as “prior art.”

Subsequent improvements to the technology, such as using lipid nanoparticles to deliver the messenger RNA, were also described in public materials before Moderna requested patents, the filings say.

That includes a patent filed in 2013 that outlined the delivery system.

The patent “is prior art” under the law, Pfizer and BioNTech said.

The patent court hasn’t yet ruled on the filings.

Pfizer and BioNTech also used messenger RNA in their COVID-19 vaccine, one of the most widely used around the world, but say that the shot was based on proprietary technology.

“We remain confident in our intellectual property supporting the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and will vigorously defend against the allegations of the lawsuit,” they said in 2022, after being sued by Moderna over alleged patent infringement.

Moderna COVID-19 vaccines are unpacked in Boston on Dec. 24, 2020. (Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images)

Earlier Suits

While the companies produced the first COVID-19 vaccines in the world, they have been feuding since, filing suits against each other.

Moderna sued Pfizer and BioNTech in August 2022, saying the Pfizer-BioNTech shot used features that were developed by Moderna scientists.

“Despite recognizing the importance of patents to innovators such as Moderna, Pfizer, and BioNTech have copied Moderna’s intellectual property and have continued to use Moderna’s inventions without permission. Moderna therefore brings this lawsuit to protect the mRNA technology platform it innovated, invested in, and patented, and to ensure that intellectual property is respected,” stated the litigation, filed in U.S. court in Massachusetts, where Moderna is headquartered.

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said during a conference in 2020 that the company’s mRNA vaccine was using an antigen “which is, I think, the same like the [one] Moderna is using,” the suit noted.

Moderna said it offered to consider selling licenses to its technology, but that neither Pfizer nor BioNTech ever made contact to request a license.

Moderna also filed a patent infringement suit in a court in Germany, where BioNTech is headquartered.

Pfizer and BioNTech countersued later in 2022, introducing the argument that Moderna’s patents weren’t valid.

The patents “far exceed” Moderna’s “actual contributions to the field,” the countersuit states.

Pfizer and BioNTech also said in the filing that they produced their vaccine independent of Moderna’s technology.

Other Litigation

Moderna has also been sued by additional companies, which say that the firm infringed on their patent in its COVID-19 vaccine.

Arbutus Biopharma and Genevant Sciences filed the claim in U.S. court.

Moderna’s attempt to dismiss the case, backed by the U.S. government, was rejected by a federal judge earlier this year.

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, another firm, has accused both Moderna and Pfizer of violating a related patent.

Pfizer and BioNTech have also been sued in the United States by Arbutus and a separate company, CureVac, which alleges the companies infringed on its technology in their vaccine.

“Our scientists have pioneered fundamental break­throughs in mRNA vaccine technology over the last two decades,” CureVac CEO Dr. Alexander Zehnder said in a statement at the time. “These contributions underpin the rapid development of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines such as Comirnaty.”

That case is poised to head to trial in 2024.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/04/2023 – 07:30

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/iMS79L8 Tyler Durden

Why Nick Colas Is Bullish On Gold

Why Nick Colas Is Bullish On Gold

Nick Colas is bullish on gold.

The former Credit Suisse analyst and SAC Capital portfolio manager who founded DataTrek Research in 2017 has started offering his thoughts via YouTube, where he’s opined on topics such as his 3 cardinal rules of investing, how to use the VIX to trade smarter, and the best way to value Tesla.

On Tuesday, Colas discussed where he thinks gold is headed

In 1960, Colas’s family came to America just after the Cuban revolution with $200 in a suitcase. After scrambling to land on their feet, his father began buying gold coins on business trips to Europe when it was $35 to $37 an ounce.

He viewed gold as a long-term store of value,” Colas said of his father. Then, “in 1971 President Nixon took the U.S. dollar off the gold standard and prices began to rise.”

“In the late 70s inflation really took over as a big investment theme and the price of gold was going up even further,” he continues.

In 1974, gold soared from its $35 valuation in the 1960s to $600 an ounce by 1980.

Gold vs. Equities: The Unspoken Truth

While the S&P 500 has grown roughly 13% per year over the last decade, when one looks outside US borders, gold’s 5% annual compounded growth begins to look quite impressive. Colas notes that the MSCI All-Country Ex-U.S. index and Chinese equities have shown a mere 5% and 3% growth, respectively. So if your portfolio isn’t U.S.-centric, gold not just holds its own but shines.

The crux of the argument: Central Banks love it!

According to the World Gold Council, 25% of the demand for gold has come from central banks – primarily China, Russia, Turkey, and India. Why? For strarters, gold is priced in dollars, still the world’s reserve currency.

Owning gold is like owning the Dollar Plus the volatility of the underlying assets,” explains Nicholas.

Gold also offers central banks immunity to sanctions and confiscation during geopolitical upheavals. With increasing tensions involving countries like Russia and China, central banks are moving towards assets that aren’t just backed by the dollar but also impervious to sanctions and confiscations, such as what we saw with Russian assets following the invasion of Ukraine.

In short: “We’re pretty bullish on gold for the next five to ten years you have good underlying demand good incremental demand from central banks.

Watch:

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/04/2023 – 06:55

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Subsidies Won’t Stop Stagnation


topicspolicy | Photo: Intel

President Joe Biden is making a “big bet on place-based industrial policy,” writes Brookings Institution senior fellow Mark Muro. Muro and his colleagues argue that the initiative aims to address the fact that “many of the nation’s towns and regions struggle under the weight of economic stagnation and social decline.”

The size of the bet is around $80 billion in various industrial subsidies. It is unlikely to pay off as advertised.

These direct subsidies contrast with earlier federal place-based economic development programs, which chiefly used tax credits to encourage investment in poor urban neighborhoods and rural regions. Most research on those programs—which include New Markets Tax Credits (created by President Bill Clinton), Empowerment Zones (George W. Bush), and Opportunity Zones (Donald Trump)—indicates that they have had a negligible impact.

In a 2019 Regional Science and Urban Economics study, for example, University of California, Irvine economists David Neumark and Timothy Young found that so-called enterprise zones “have for the most part been ineffective at reducing urban poverty or improving labor market outcomes in the United States.” That conclusion, they said, jibed with “the more widely prevailing view.”

The conclusions of a 2023 working paper by University of Iowa finance professor Jiajie Xu were even less promising. Xu found that the Opportunity Zone program actually “led to a decrease in new business formation” and “negatively affected local employment” while having “little impact on attracting population inflows or reducing income inequality.” Why? Likely because “the policy drove more private investments to existing firms, deterring potential entrepreneurs from entering and competing with the better-financed incumbents.”

Ineffective as they were, the earlier place-based programs were at least directly aimed at locations with few jobs and high levels of poverty. The median annual household income for Opportunity Zones was around $33,000 initially. The subsidies that Biden has championed are less carefully targeted.

“Every American willing to work hard” should be able “to raise their kids on a good paycheck and keep their roots where they grew up,” Biden declared in June. “That’s Bidenomics.” As an example, he cited new semiconductor fabs where workers without college degrees could make six figures.

But those fabs are not being built in the poorest parts of America. Nearly half of the $80 billion in place-based funding is targeted at semiconductor plants as authorized by the CHIPS and Science Act. Many of the companies that will receive the money announced the construction of new plants months before Biden signed that law in August 2022, and they are locating their facilities in places that make sense for their businesses.

In September 2021, for example, Intel said it was building two new fabs in Chandler, Arizona. The following January, the company unveiled plans for another two fabs in New Albany, Ohio. The median household income is $91,000 in Chandler and $206,000 in New Albany. The median household income in the U.S. stands just shy of $71,000, while the poverty threshold is just under $28,000 for a family of four.

Some new fabs are being built in towns with median household incomes below the national average. But the poorest of these is Sherman, Texas, future home of a new Texas Instruments fab, where the median household income is $54,000.

Biden’s place-based programs, in short, are not really designed for helping Americans “keep their roots” in places that still “struggle under the weight of economic stagnation and social decline.”

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