California Raises Minimum Wage For Fast-Food Workers

California Raises Minimum Wage For Fast-Food Workers

Authored by Mimi Nguyen Ly via The Epoch Times,

California’s fast-food workers will see a wage boost to $20 per hour due to a legislation signed into law by Gov. Gavin Newsom on Thursday.

The wage increase will be effective from April 1, 2024. It will apply to all employees who work at restaurants that have at least 60 locations across the country. However, restaurants that make and sell their own bread don’t have to abide by the new minimum wage.

Assemblymember Chris R. Holden (D-Pasadena) sponsored the bill, AB 1228. It allows the Fast Food Council to establish the minimum wage for fast-food restaurants, and suggest guidelines for other aspects like health and safety standards, and training.

The wage increase makes California the state with the highest guaranteed base salary in the fast-food industry.

The average hourly wage for fast-food workers in California in 2022 was $16.21. Currently, they earn an average of $16.60 per hour, or just over $34,000 per year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This figure is below the California Poverty Measure for a family of four—a statistic calculated by the Public Policy Institute of California and the Stanford Center on Poverty and Equality that accounts for housing costs and publicly-funded benefits.

California’s minimum wage for all other non-fast food workers already earn one of the country’s highest minimum wages at $15.50 per hour.

“California is home to more than 500,000 fast-food workers who—for decades—have been fighting for higher wages and better working conditions,” Mr. Newsom, a Democrat, said in a statement Thursday.

“Today, we take one step closer to fairer wages, safer and healthier working conditions, and better training by giving hardworking fast-food workers a stronger voice and seat at the table.”

At an event in Los Angeles, Mr. Newsom dismissed the popular view that fast-food jobs are meant for teenagers to have their first experience in the workforce.

“That’s a romanticized version of a world that doesn’t exist,” he said.

“We have the opportunity to reward that contribution, reward that sacrifice and stabilize an industry.”

A “Now hiring” sign is displayed on the window of an IN-N-OUT fast-food restaurant in Encinitas, Calif., U.S., May 9, 2022. (Mike Blake/Reuters)

The law sets up a council to review and consider annual wage hikes until 2029, based on either a 3.5 percent increase or the U.S. Consumer Price Index’s average change for urban and clerical workers, whichever is less.

Mr. Newsom’s signature highlights the influence of labor unions in California, which have been trying to get fast food workers higher pay.

The move also settles a conflict between labor unions and fast food businesses about how to regulate the industry. The deal they reached means that in return for better wages, labor unions won’t try to blame fast food brands for any wrongdoings by their independent franchise operators in California. In turn, fast food businesses agreed not to bring the worker wage issue up for a referendum in 2024.

“That was a tectonic plate that had to be moved,” Mr. Newsom said, referring to what he said were the more than 100 hours of negotiations it took to reach an agreement on the bills in the final weeks of the state legislative session.

Mary Kay Henry, the head of the Service Employees International Union International, said the new law reflects a decade of efforts, including some 450 strikes across the state over the past two years.

California politicians are now focusing on other sectors and have recently passed a bill to progressively raise the minimum wage for healthcare workers to $25 per hour.

The federal minimum wage in other sectors has been unchanged at $7.25 an hour since 2009, which is equivalent to $15,080 a year for a person who works 40 hours a week.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/29/2023 – 13:05

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Putin Crowns New Wagner Chief, Tasked With Sending Fighters Back To Ukraine

Putin Crowns New Wagner Chief, Tasked With Sending Fighters Back To Ukraine

The future fate and leadership of PMC Wagner has become clearer on Friday, following the Aug. 23 death of Yevgeny Prigozhin and much of his senior leadership when their private plane went down outside Moscow while en route to St. Petersburg. It is believed that either a bomb was detonated, or it was shot down by an anti-aircraft missile.

The lingering question since then has centered on who will take command of Wagner, and whether it will remain a private entity, or possibly be broken apart. Those questions appear to have been at least partially answered with Putin’s Friday Kremlin meeting with Andrei Troshev, among the most senior ex-commanders of the Wagner mercenary group and former aide to Prigozhin.

Andrey Troshev, a senior Wagner commander, in 2016. Via Kremlin.ru/Reuters

“President Putin asked Mr Troshev to oversee volunteer fighter units in Ukraine,” the Kremlin said, in the clearest indicator to date that Wagner fighters will be returning to the Ukraine battlefield in large numbers.

Importantly, the Kremlin also confirmed that Troshev now works for the defense ministry, according to spokesman Dmitry Peskov, and will coordinate reintegration of Wagner fighters with Russia’s armed forces on a voluntary basis.

Putin has additionally told Troshev he could “volunteer units that can perform various combat tasks, above all, of course, in the zone of a special military operation” – referring to Ukraine.

“You know about the issues that need to be resolved in advance so that the combat work goes in the best and most successful way,” Putin added. 

There were indicators even before Prigozhin’s death, but following the June mutiny, that Troshev would be given control of Wagner under defense ministry oversight. At the time, the following backgrounder was released by US media

Sedoy is the call sign of Andrey Troshev, a retired Russian colonel and a founding member and Executive Director of the Wagner Group, according to sanctions documents published by the European Union and France.

European Union sanctions concerning the situation in Syria detail Troshev’s position as the chief of staff of the Wagner Group operations in Syria, which supported the Syrian regime.

Troshev was born in April 1953 in Leningrad, in the former Soviet Union, according to the EU sanctions from December 2021.

“Andrey Troshev is directly involved in the military operations of the Wagner Group in Syria. He was particularly involved in the area of Deir ez-Zor,” it added. “As such, he provides a crucial contribution to Bashar al-Assad’s war effort and therefore supports and benefits from the Syrian regime.”

Earlier this week, CNN had cited Ukrainian military sources to say that Wagner fighters have been redeployed to the battlefield in Ukraine, but this time under the regular Russian military command. 

Hundreds of Wagner fighters have reportedly already appeared in the east, according to the Ukrainian sources. The last time the Ukrainians had seen them in significant numbers was after Wagner units had handed control of Bakhmut in the east over to the Russian regular armed forces. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/29/2023 – 12:45

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Life In America Has Never Been More Unaffordable Than It Is Right Now

Life In America Has Never Been More Unaffordable Than It Is Right Now

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

Our standard of living is being systematically destroyed, but for a lot of years many Americans didn’t fully understand what was taking place because it was happening so slowly.  But now we have reached a stage where the purchasing power of our money is collapsing and the cost of living has become exceedingly painful.  Thanks to our rapidly rising cost of living, the middle class is becoming “the impoverished class”, and the poor are increasingly being pushed out into the streets.  If we do not find a way to turn these trends around, it won’t be too long before we have tremendous societal turmoil on our hands.

Earlier today, I came across an article about a woman that found a receipt from Burger King that was dated August 10, 1986.

At that time you could buy a Whopper for just $1.54.

Today, that same Whopper will cost you $6.79

A woman has been left stunned after discovering a retro Burger King receipt from the 1980s which reveals the staggering price increases that the fast food chain has implemented over the past four decades.

US-based Liza took to social media to share the receipt after her mother found it in a box in the garage while remodeling her home.

The faded paper from the fast food chain dates back to August 10, 1986, and lists three Whopper burgers purchased for $4.62 – which works out at $1.54 each.

A single Whopper burger currently costs $6.79 in today’s money – over four times the price listed on the vintage receipt.

In other words, if you had $6.79 back then, you could buy four whoppers and you would still have money left over.

This is what inflation does.

It destroys our purchasing power.

Another woman named Melanie that makes 34 dollars an hour is so stressed financially that she literally tries to make one loaf of rye bread last her for the entire week

“What I’ve started doing is I buy a loaf of rye bread, and I work really hard to keep that one loaf of rye bread lasting me the whole week. And I eat peanut butter, so I’ll eat peanut butter toast whenever I’m hungry.”

In the old days, if you were making 34 dollars an hour you were living the high life.

But now most people making 34 dollars an hour are just barely scraping by from month to month.

Of course it isn’t just food that has become absurdly expensive.

At this point, homes in the U.S. have never been more unaffordable than they are right now.

The following was recently posted on Twitter by The Kobeissi Letter

Inflation adjusted home prices are now 85% above their average dating back to 1900.

Even after accounting for inflation, home prices have never been more expensive than they are now.

In fact, inflation adjusted home prices are now 20% above their 2008 peak, the previous all time high.

The median home now sells for an alarming 530% of the median annual income.

Meanwhile, the median house payment is now a record 49% of median PRE-TAX income.

Affordability has never been worse.

We have never seen anything like this in the entire history of our country.

Since the beginning of 2019, the median price of a home in the U.S. has risen by more than a hundred thousand dollars

In fact, comparing present prices to levels before the virus panic, St. Louis Fed numbers show a median priced U.S. home rose from $313,000 in the beginning of 2019 to $416,000 today.

Rental prices have gone completely nuts as well.

As I discussed last week, the median asking rent in the United States is now over $2,000 a month.

Over the past couple of years we have seen unprecedented rent hikes, and vast numbers of renters have been getting the boot.

In fact, we are seeing a tsunami of evictions in the Los Angeles area right now…

With COVID-era protections gone, the number of renters facing eviction in Los Angeles continues to climb by the thousands each month.

From February through the end of August, approximately 50,000 eviction notices were filed by landlords in the city, according to figures released on Monday by the L.A. Controller’s Office.

A spokesperson said 96% of them involve non-payment of rent, and landlords were owed $186.5 million collectively.

So where will all these people go?

If they are young enough, perhaps they can live with their parents.

But many will not have that option.

Up to this point in 2023, homelessness in the United States has been rising at the fastest pace ever recorded, and a lot more Americans will find themselves without a home between now and the end of the year.

Meanwhile, those that are still scraping by will find it harder and harder to make ends meet.

The average rate of interest on our credit card balances has risen from about 16 percent in February 2022 to more than 22 percent today.

As a result, an increasing number of Americans find themselves unable to keep up with their payments, and it is being reported that credit card losses are rising at the quickest rate since the last financial crisis

Credit card companies are racking up losses at the fastest pace in almost 30 years, outside of the Great Financial Crisis, according to Goldman Sachs.

Credit card losses bottomed in September 2021, and while initial increases were likely reversals from stimulus, they have been rapidly rising since the first quarter of 2022. Since that time, it’s an increasing rate of losses only seen in recent history during the recession of 2008.

It is far from over, the firm predicts.

More Americans are going bankrupt as well.

In fact, the number of bankruptcy cases in August 2023 was 18 percent higher than it was in August 2022.

Millions upon millions of Americans have been turning to debt in order to keep up with the cost of living, but as economic conditions deteriorate financial institutions are starting to get much tighter with their money.

So we are moving into a time when U.S. consumers will find it much more difficult to take on new debt…

Nearly 60% of the respondents in a New York Fed consumer expectations survey said it’s harder to get credit cards, mortgages and other loans than it was a year ago. It was the highest level since the New York Fed started the data series back in 2013.

Another Fed survey of loan officers reveals their fears aren’t unfounded. Banks reported that lending standards tightened across all consumer loan categories and all categories of residential real estate (RRE) loans. Meanwhile, the number of banks reporting tighter standards for credit cards rose by 36%.

Banks have also significantly tightened standards for business loans.

This is a recipe for disaster.

That is definitely true.

Without a doubt, this is certainly a recipe for disaster.

But there is no going back now.

In fact, the rising price of oil is going to cause enormous inflationary pressures throughout our entire economic system in the months ahead.

On Tuesday, a senior market analyst at OANDA warned that it appears that “nothing is going to get in the way of this oil price rally”

“It looks like nothing is going to get in the way of this oil price rally,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, in emailed comments on Tuesday. “Energy traders know a bullish trend when they see one and it will take a lot more than a strong dollar, softer Russian ban, and weakening demand, to disrupt this rally.”

When the price of oil reaches 100 dollars a barrel, that will be painful, but we can handle that.

But the chief executive of Continental Resources is projecting that the price of oil could eventually reach 150 dollars a barrel

That’s Doug Lawler, chief executive of Continental Resources, the shale-drilling giant controlled by billionaire Harold Hamm, telling Bloomberg News on Monday that crude prices are set to remain elevated and could press to the $120- to $150-a-barrel range without new production.

More price pressure is coming, he said, unless policies are put in place to encourage more output.

If the price of oil reaches 150 dollars a barrel and stays there, it will be an unmitigated disaster for our economy, and the cost of just about everything will jump substantially.

That is because just about everything that we buy and sell has to be transported.

We need cheap energy in order to have a high standard of living, but unfortunately the era of cheap energy is coming to an abrupt ending, and that means that none of our lives will ever be the same again.

I kept warning my readers that a lot of the long-term trends that I have been writing about would catch up with us eventually, and now that time has arrived.

So enjoy the current economic conditions while you still can, because they will soon go from bad to worse.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/29/2023 – 12:20

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Malaysia Aims To Become A Semiconductor Powerhouse

Malaysia Aims To Become A Semiconductor Powerhouse

Locals are telling Nikkei that Kuala Lumpur’s semiconductor industry is bustling in a way it hasn’t in 34 years.

Speaking to Ng Kok Tiong, a senior vice president at Infineon, it’s becoming clear that the semiconductor industry in Malaysia is attempting to ramp up. As one example, Ng told Nikkei he is experiencing daily traffic jams that he’s never seen before

Ng would have his finger on the pulse of the industry in the country. He is also chairman of the Semiconductor Fabrication Association of Malaysia, the report notes. His company, Infineon, is in the process of building a $7 billion facility that’ll be used as a production site for silicon carbide chips. 

He told Nikkei this week: “Malaysia benefited quite a bit from this diversification of the supply chain. Traffic increased a lot because of so many factories coming. The government is now widening the road, and that will likely be complete by next year.”. 

Once a forerunner in Asian semiconductor production, Malaysia garnered the epithet “the Silicon Valley of the East” in the 1970s. However, it ceded its leadership position to South Korea and Taiwan due to the meteoric rise of native firms like Samsung Electronics and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. during the 1990s. Amid escalating U.S.-China tensions, Malaysia now eyes resurgence as the sector seeks to broaden its production base.

Boosting this aspiration are significant foreign investments: U.S.-based Intel intends to invest $7 billion in Malaysia, making it the focal point of the company’s Asian operations. Furthermore, in the Bayan Lepas industrial park, southeast of Penang Island, Intel is constructing its most extensive facility focused on state-of-the-art 3D chip packaging—a critical frontier in the race for more potent chips.

Intel’s vice president of manufacturing and supply chain, AK Chong, commented: “There is a saying that goes, ‘A rising tide lifts all boats’. You’re bringing in a lot of ecosystem suppliers. Like our advanced packaging — you need a new chemical solution and new equipment. So you expect a lot of these investments coming in. It’s like a chain effect.”

Nikkei writes that Foreign direct investment in Malaysia soared to an all-time high in Q1 2023, reaching $15.25 billion, more than doubling the entire amount for 2019.

Primarily driven by global tech and semiconductor firms, Malaysia holds a 13% share in the global market for chip packaging, assembly, and testing. However, the country’s chip industry is overwhelmingly reliant on foreign giants like Intel and NXP, with domestic firms playing a minor role. Additionally, the sector faced a bottleneck in 2020 due to COVID-19 restrictions.

Post-pandemic, Malaysia is promoting its stable geopolitics and low natural disaster risk to attract foreign investment. Companies like Jabil, Micron, and Bosch are expanding their operations in the Penang region, while DHL Express is adding logistics centers. Lam’s CEO identified Malaysia as one of Asia’s three key chip production hubs, alongside Taiwan and South Korea. Intel’s local head emphasized Malaysia’s strategic location and the English proficiency of its workforce.

“We are now finalizing a project to build new production sites soon in either Malaysia or Vietnam because of demands from clients. No matter whether the cost is higher, that’s a trend we have to follow,” concluded Scott Lin, president of Marketech International Corp., a leading chipmaking facility builder and equipment supplier to TSMC, ASML and Applied Materials. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/29/2023 – 12:00

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“Do You Understand What We Are Saying?”

“Do You Understand What We Are Saying?”

By Teeuwe Mevissen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

The Federal Reserve’s ability to influence the economy depends on whether “people understand what we are saying,” according to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. So did market participants not understand what the Fed was saying for quite some time? Or, more likely, did markets simply not believe the Fed’s narrative for a long time? Looking at yesterday’s sharp movements that seems to be pointing more in that direction. Indeed, yesterday saw markets being confronted with nothing less than a bond sell off. This all despite data that showed that inflation in Europe decreased further and even came out lower than expected. Many reasons for yesterday’s moves were given.

Some pointed towards the oil market where dwindling stockpiles and fears of falling crude supplies globally fanned inflation fears. Others mentioned the looming government shutdown in the US, which our US and Fed strategist Philip Marey has covered for you in his latest special and which can be found here. For those who want the very brief summary. It looks like the government is going into a government shutdown on Sunday. The main reason for that being divisions within the GOP between the House Freedom Caucus and the rest of the Republicans. Then some ‘blamed’ hawkish central bankers like Kashkari and Nagel who clearly left open the possibility for more rate hikes. Yet others claim that the market has finally woken up to the idea that rates are likely to stay higher for longer. In other words they might finally understand what the Fed has been saying. While all of the above likely had some influence on yesterday’s movements, considering the fact that the fed funds future for December 2024 declined last month, the recent moves can also point to a rise in the term premium, which -unfortunately- is a technical construct and could reflect anything, from liquidity premiums to inflation risk premiums AND uncertainty about future policy rates (which, again, may also include a ‘higher for longer’ acknowledgement by market participants, albeit at a longer projection horizon).

Japan has also been hit  by a selloff of its government bonds and those bonds are set for the worst quarterly selloff in two decades. But while these securities have lost about 3% during the third quarter, non-Japanese government bonds have slumped no less than 4.6%. Still, the yield on a 10-year Japanese government bond reached the highest level in 10-years at 0.755%. An important reason is that the Bank of Japan did not raise interest rates yet but this also means that, should the BoJ start raising rates next year, Japanese bonds will be under more pressure.

But whatever the reason or reasons, bond holders took a big hit yesterday with long term European and US yields rising 10 basis points or more. Moreover, the spread between 10 year Bunds and 10-year BTP’s also rose to 200 basis points. Today we see a slight reversal in bond yields bringing down both the 10-years EUR swap and the German 10-year bund with 5 basis points at the moment of writing. This brings the yields to 3.40% and 2.87% respectively. Some dovish leaning comments and news about a possible encounter between Biden and Xi seem to have done the trick. Also stocks are recovering a bit today, which is the last trading day of a disappointing third quarter for stock markets.

Today also saw a slew of data coming from Japan. Today’s inflation data showed that inflation was slightly higher in YoY terms than expected (2.8% vs 2.7% expected) while core inflation came out slightly lower than expected. Ex-food inflation stood at 2.5% YoY but ex-food and -energy prices rose 3.8%, meaning that the underlying rate of inflation is still well above 2%.  August retail sales also went up 7% YoY although compared to the previous month of July, retail sales only rose with 0.1%. Industrial production remained unchanged compared to the previous month but on an annual base it still reported a decline of 3.8%.

This morning also saw a lot of data coming in from the United Kingdom. Second estimates regarding economic growth over the second quarter of this year showed some interesting revisions. While QoQ GDP growth was still estimated to be 0.2%, the annual growth figure was revised upwards from 0.40% to 0.60%. And while consumption and government spending where lower than initially reported, business investments showed a surprising acceleration rising 4.1% compared to the first quarter of this year. Finally, Germany saw some disappointing retail sales figures showing that consumers spent 1.2% less compared to last month and 1.09% less compared to a year ago. This all reflecting the difficult economic position that Germany finds itself in, the result of a long era of erroneous policies regarding trade, energy and security.  

Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/29/2023 – 11:40

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The Creator Is a Pro-A.I., Pro-Freedom, Anti-Imperialist Sci-Fi War Movie


Screenshot from 'The Creator' | 20th Century Studios

For most of this year, the Writer’s Guild of America (WGA), which represents Hollywood screenwriters, was locked in a grinding labor battle with the studios that make Tinseltown’s biggest productions. Among the most contested provisions of the dispute, which led to the drawn-out strike that ended this week, was the use of artificial intelligence—programs like ChatGPT—in the writing and re-writing of scripts. 

Could Hollywood producers use AI to write screenplays, or to rework material written by a guild member? In the end, the Writer’s Guild won a number of restrictions on how studios can use artificial intelligence. The WGA’s viewpoint was clear: AI represents a threat to their livelihoods and work products. 

It’s hardly surprising that the writers would subscribe to this notion: For years, Hollywood has enthralled viewers with visions of killer AI, all of which offer some variation on the story of Frankenstein’s monster, in which man uses science to create new life—and that life turns on its creator. 

So it’s at least a little bit ironic, then, that The Creator, the first big production to hit theaters after the end of the standoff between writers and studios stands defiantly in opposition to this technophobic outlook. The movie is pro-AI, pro-freedom, and anti-imperialist. Also, it looks amazing. The movie’s big ideas are simplistic at best and often underdeveloped, but The Creator is nonetheless a gorgeous, immersive bit of blockbuster filmmaking, with some of the most impressive original sci-fi visuals in years. 

Directed by Gareth Edwards, who previously helmed both Godzilla and Star Wars: Rogue One, The Creator sometimes often plays like an extension of ideas that first appeared in both of those films, particularly Rogue One. Rogue One, by far the best of the modern Star Wars features, was most successful as a sort of gritty war movie, positioning the Star Wars franchise’s rebels as ad hoc freedom fighters, with different goals and different ideas about what sort of violence was justifiable, warring against an invading empire. 

In Rogue One, the Vietnam parallels were lightly applied and somewhat vague in intention: The movie wasn’t using real-world political reference points to make a clear, coherent point; rather it was using real-world political reference points to add heft and texture to the Star Wars franchise’s fantasy universe. 

In The Creator, the Vietnam parallels are still fairly vague, but much more heavily applied. The film draws heavily from classic Vietnam movies, especially Apocalypse Now: It follows Joshua Taylor (John David Washington), an undercover agent trying to track down a mysterious AI leader—what amounts to Col. Kurtz—who, after a failed raid, is reassigned to a mission to obtain a new AI superweapon. That weapon turns out to be an AI simulant, a sort of robot/human hybrid, who takes the form of a little girl, and who has some unique abilities. Taylor decides to protect her rather than take her in, and the movie then becomes an extended chase, with a ruthless American military officer (Allison Janey) attempting to hunt down Taylor and his charge. 

The future war it depicts is not so much between humans and AI as between the America-led West and the AI-allied East; the American military is depicted as an overbearing, imperialist force that destroys free, peaceful communities that, unlike the West, have learned to coexist with sentient machines. 

There are half-baked class, labor, and immigration parallels, too: Humans created AI to be helpers and servants—to do, in other words, the jobs that Americans wouldn’t do. But that ended after a nuclear strike on downtown Los Angeles, which served as the inciting incident for the American war on intelligent robots. 

All of this is packaged with such visual verve that it’s easy to overlook the movie’s simplistic thinking. Edwards produces a number of first-rate action sequences and memorable visuals, and his sprawling, lived-in, AI world seems to have a rich life of its own beyond the confines of the story. 

Ultimately, the movie’s tenebrous political metaphors don’t add up to much more than a non-specific sense that freedom is good, that sentient AI has moral worth, and that American military adventurism tends to have disastrous downstream consequences. Sure it’s all rather vague… but it’s also not wrong. Writer’s Guild, take note. 

The post <i>The Creator</i> Is a Pro-A.I., Pro-Freedom, Anti-Imperialist Sci-Fi War Movie appeared first on Reason.com.

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Sales Data Indicate That Restrictions on Flavored Vaping Products Encourage Smoking


A cigarette in one hand and a vape in the other | Vaping360

Legal restrictions on the flavors of nicotine vaping products are associated with increased cigarette purchases, according to a new paper that analyzes retail sales data from 44 states. For each fewer 0.7-milliliter nicotine pod sold in jurisdictions with such policies, the analysis found, consumers bought 15 more cigarettes. “That tradeoff,” the authors note, “equates to over a pack more cigarettes per pod for the size of current leading products” such as the Vuse Alto, which uses 1.8-milliliter pods.

The substitution effect identified by this study underlines the folly of trying to protect public health by deterring the use of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), which are far less hazardous than combustible cigarettes. “We find that ENDS flavor policies reduce flavored ENDS sales as intended, but also increase cigarette sales across age groups,” Yale public health researcher Abigail Friedman and her collaborators report. “As cigarettes are much more lethal than ENDS, the high rate of substitution estimated here suggests that, on net, any population health benefits of ENDS flavor policies are likely small or even negative.”

Friedman et al. identified 15 state and 279 local flavor restrictions that took effect during the study period—January 7, 2018, through March 26, 2023. Those policies included both outright bans on ENDS flavors other than tobacco and laws that limited sales of such products to specialty stores such as vape shops and tobacconists. The study’s sales data came from Information Resources Incorporated, which collects checkout numbers from convenience stores, supermarkets, drug stores, discount stores, and gas stations.

“ENDS sales fall and cigarette sales rise as a greater percentage of state residents is subject to policies restricting flavored ENDS sales,” Friedman et al. report. “Effects are in the same direction for policies prohibiting all ENDS sales (i.e., flavored and unflavored), consistent with substitution.” These effects are “larger in the long-run; that is, for policies in effect a year or longer,” the researchers note. They add that “separating ENDS flavor prohibitions from less restrictive policies limiting flavored ENDS sales to particular types of retailers reveals that both policies yield reductions in ENDS sales and increases in cigarette sales once in effect for at least a year.”

The relationship between reduced ENDS sales and increased cigarette sales, the study found, “holds across cigarette product age profiles, including for brands disproportionately used by underage youth.” Menthol brands accounted for 29 percent of the increase in cigarette sales, while standard cigarettes accounted for 71 percent, which “indicates that the observed substitution response to ENDS flavor policies cannot be attributed to menthol cigarettes’ availability” or “fully counteracted by menthol cigarette sales prohibitions.”

These findings, Friedman et al. note, are consistent with “results from 16 of 18 other studies assessing cigarette use following adoptions of minimum legal sales age laws for ENDS, ENDS tax rate increases, and advertising restrictions.” They are also consistent with prior studies suggesting that ENDS flavor restrictions boost smoking rates. “In other words,” the authors say, “policies making ENDS more expensive, less accessible, or less appealing appear to incentivize substitution towards cigarettes.”

Who could have predicted that? Lots of people, starting with all the ex-smokers who have switched to vaping and overwhelmingly prefer the flavors that politicians portray as an intolerable threat to the youth of America. Savvy tobacco control experts likewise have been warning legislators and regulators for years that policies aimed at discouraging underage vaping could inadvertently lead to more smoking-related diseases and deaths.

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA), which provided some of the funding for this very study, concedes the harm-reducing potential of ENDS. Yet it has systematically undermined that potential by refusing to approve vaping products in flavors other than tobacco. As Friedman et al. note, the FDA “has only approved 23 ENDS products for
marketing to date, none of which are flavored.” Although “flavored ENDS products remain widely available in states that do not prohibit their sales,” they add, the FDA seems to be “paving a path towards a de facto national ENDS flavor prohibition.”

The FDA is doing that in the name of public health. Yet its calculus of the impact from prohibiting ENDS flavors that former smokers demonstrably want does not take into account the sort of substitution described in this study. In its zeal to combat adolescent nicotine addiction, the FDA is willing to sacrifice the interests, and perhaps the lives, of adults who have already switched to vaping or might be interested in doing so.

There is an economic rationale for addressing the “internalities” of underage vaping through flavor restrictions, Friedman et al. concede, “particularly if youth do not anticipate nicotine addiction’s impact on future cessation attempts.” But that approach, they say, involves an “inequitable tradeoff,” since it “prioritizes youth over the 11.2% of US adults [who] smoke.” They note “evidence that ENDS use is more effective for smoking cessation than nicotine replacement therapy” and research indicating “high rates of ‘accidental quitting’ among smokers [who] try ENDS without intending to quit cigarettes.”

They might have added that, whatever the long-term impact of underage vaping, it is bound to pale next to the smoking-related morbidity and mortality that could be avoided through wider use of ENDS. And that potential benefit applies even to people who start vaping as teenagers, to the extent that they would otherwise be smoking—another substitution effect that the FDA refuses to consider in deciding which nicotine products are “appropriate for the protection of public health.”

The post Sales Data Indicate That Restrictions on Flavored Vaping Products Encourage Smoking appeared first on Reason.com.

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Future Headline: Kamala eliminated from “America’s Next Top Leader” Episode 1

In a world full of unimaginable absurdity, we spend a lot of time thinking about the future… and to where all of this insanity leads.

“Future Headline Friday” is our satirical take of where the world is going if it remains on its current path. While our satire may be humorous and exaggerated, rest assured that everything we write is based on actual events, news stories, personalities, and pending legislation.

September 29, 2027: Kamala eliminated from “America’s Next Top Leader” Episode 1

Late last year, the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD)— the non-profit group that has governed televised debates among US Presidential candidates since 1987— announced groundbreaking changes to its traditional debate format.

The Commission’s Executive Director stated back in December 2026 that it was time for presidential debates to “keep up with America’s rapidly evolving culture and values, and the way we engage in political discourse.”

And that’s why, the CPD’s Executive Director said, “starting with the 2028 election cycle, the Commission will replace the traditional debate format with a new reality show called America’s Next Top Leader.

The decision was immediately controversial; many prominent politicians and media personalities were outraged, claiming that the switch to reality TV was an “insult” and “threat to democracy” that trivializes the electoral process and distracts from the serious issues facing the nation.

Others supported the new reality-TV format, given that Americans tend to respond better to drama and entertainment rather than frank policy discussions.

And many proponents believe that a reality TV format is the natural progression given the trend of poor decorum at traditional debates.

“Let’s be honest, debates have been more about insults over substance for a long time now,” said pop culture analyst Taylor Trend. “‘America’s Next Top Leader simply makes it official and packages it in a way that’s engaging for the modern audience.”

Over the past several months, newly appointed co-Producers of America’s Next Top Leader— Simon Cowell and RuPaul— released details on the show’s format.

They said that every episode of America’s Next Top Leader will feature Presidential candidates participating in various challenges designed to test their leadership skills, charisma, and ability to generate viral moments.

Challenges include crafting the most retweetable slogan, delivering canned talking points within a 15-second time limit, shouting over the debate moderator, and participating in “roast battles” where candidates unleash personal attacks on each other.

As candidates are eliminated, the few remaining will have to participate in increasingly more difficult challenges. For example, later this season in Episode 7, candidates will compete to see who can most subtly grope an intern in a theater full of cameras.

Episode 5 will feature the “most degrading photo-op” challenge, and Episode 3 will showcase the “flip flop challenge” to see which candidate can reverse his/her position the most times within 60 seconds.

Last night’s inaugural episode was watched by a record 94 million people, smashing the previous record of 84 million set by the first 2016 Trump-Clinton debate, and coming in right behind the 1994 LAPD police chase of OJ Simpson which was watched by 95 million people.

Perhaps one of the most entertaining parts of last night’s episode was the “Crisis Lightening Round” where candidates had to give a 5 second response to some of America’s biggest looming problems.

Moderator: “Stacy Abrams— Social Security runs out of money. Go!”

Abrams: “I’ve instructed the Federal Reserve to print the money and send every retiree a Social Security check that can be harvested and cashed by local election volunteers.”

Moderator: “Gavin Newsom, the US just defaulted on its debt. Go!”

Newsom: “We only owe the debt to ourselves. Fighting climate change and supporting childhood gender identity is all that matters.”

Former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg drew laughter for his response when the moderator said, “Pete Buttigieg, the US dollar just lost global reserve status. Go!”

Buttigieg stammered for a moment before admitting, “I don’t know what that is.”

Later in the show, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez shined when it came time to design the most viral Tweet with, “Billionaires have been STEALING from you for their whole lives! No more ‘tax the rich’. Now it’s time to LOOT the rich. #HungryforJustice.”

The studio audience cheered in approval.

During the GOP’s roast section, Glenn Youngkin scored big when he told Chris Christie, “Spending restraint? Looks like you’ve never restrained yourself in your life. The only thing growing faster than the federal budget is your waist. I don’t need your policy advice, but the one thing I’ll trust you on is your pick for the best pizzeria in New Jersey.”

Chris Christie, however, redeemed himself when he was able to successfully shout over all the other candidates in the “screaming match” segment.

Republicans stumbled during the ‘victimhood’ challenge in which they had to show how they identify as an oppressed class.

Former Vice President Mike Pence, for example, claimed that, as a Christian, he is “among the most oppressed people in history.” Ron DeSantis couldn’t get the hang of it, and ended up complaining about the lack of Italian food at Yale’s dining hall.

At the end of the show, the judges— which included Cowell and RuPaul, plus Kim Kardashian, David Hasselhoff, and 15-year old YouTuber Ryan Kaji from Ryan’s World— announced their decision of the first candidate to be eliminated: Kamala Harris.

Cowell savaged the Vice President before eliminating her from the competition; he quoted the Adam Sandler movie Billy Madison, saying,

“What you just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response, were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it.”

Clips from the show have already racked up hundreds of millions of views on TikTok and YouTube, and political pundits have spent hours dissecting the candidates’ performances and predicting who would advance to the next round.

“I think this is a much better way to choose politicians,” said one commenter, “because it’s more relevant. We need a leader who knows how to go viral and capture attention. Nothing’s more important in today’s world.”

Source

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Eurozone Inflation Tumbles To Two-Year Low

Eurozone Inflation Tumbles To Two-Year Low

There was good news on the crusade against inflation front on both side of the Atlantic.

As we reported earlier, core PCE – the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator – came in mostly in line and was still “sticky high”, even as sequential prints actually came below expectations, with core PCE up just 0.1% MoM, the lowest sequential increase since Nov 2020. Even the Fed’s mouthpiece, WSJ’s Nikileaks, had nothing but superlatives for today’s US PCE print, and pointing to the 3-month annualized numbers (Core goods: -2.6%; Housing: +5.4%; Core services ex-housing: +3.4%) said that “core services ex-housing rose 0.14% in August from July, the mildest MoM increase in three years.”

Of course, all that will change very fast, once the soaring oil and gas prices flow through to other industries – for context, gas prices have never been higher at this time of year…

… and headline inflation spikes sharply higher in the coming months. But until them, sentiment has clearly “doved out”, and the latest inflation data out of Europe only helped.

According to Eurostat, Eurozone inflation fell to its lowest level for almost two years, bolstering hopes that the biggest surge in consumer prices for a generation is fading fast and paving the way for the European Central Bank to halt interest rate rises, and even maybe cut rates once Europe’s recession get worse.

Headline CPI in the Euro area rose 4.3% in the year to September, down from 5.2% in August, and below the 4.5% consensus estimate. The last time inflation was lower was in October 2021. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food and is closely watched by the ECB as a gauge of underlying price pressures, also fell more than expected to 4.5%, down sharply from 5.3% in August.

Commenting on the latest inflation data, Goldman wrote that “core HICP inflation fell 74bp to 4.55%yoy, notably below consensus expectations. Euro area headline HICP inflation fell 90bp to 4.34%yoy, also below expectations. We estimate that seasonally adjusted sequential core inflation was 0.15%mom, 13bp below the ECB’s estimate of the August pace. Within core inflation, we estimate that seasonally adjusted sequential core goods inflation was 0.16%mom (vs 0.30%mom in August), while sequential services inflation was 0.14%mom (vs 0.23%mom in August).”  The bank updated its inflation forecast and now expects core and headline inflation to be 3.7%yoy (vs 3.9%yoy previously) and 3.8%yoy (vs 4.0%yoy previously) respectively in December 2023.

Some more details:

  • 1. Euro area core HICP inflation fell 74bp (on rounding) to 4.55%yoy, notably below consensus expectations, while headline HICP inflation fell 90bp to 4.34%yoy, also below expectations.
  • 2. The breakdown by main expenditure categories showed services inflation fell eight-tenths of a percentage point to 4.7%yoy, and non-energy industrial goods’ inflation fell five-tenths of a percentage point to 4.2%yoy. Of the non-core components, energy inflation fell 1.4pp to -4.7%yoy, while food, alcohol and tobacco inflation fell nine-tenths of a percentage point to 8.8%yoy (Exhibit 1).
  • 3. Seasonally adjusted sequential core inflation was 0.15%mom on a bottom-up approach (0.06%mom top-down), compared with the ECB’s estimate of the August pace at 0.28%mom. Within core inflation, sequential core goods inflation was 0.16%mom, below the Q1 and Q2 averages of 0.43%mom and 0.23%mom, respectively. Sequential services inflation was 0.14%mom, below both the Q1 and Q2 averages of 0.46%mom and 0.43%mom respectively (Exhibit 2).

Price growth slowed in 15 of the 20 eurozone members and came in below the ECB’s 2 per cent target in two of them. Prices fell in the Netherlands by 0.3% from a year ago. The bloc’s highest inflation rate was 8.9% in Slovakia. The removal of last year’s cheap German public transport tickets and fuel prices from the annual comparison pushed inflation down, while France’s recent cut in its electricity subsidy lifted energy prices.

The sharp slowdown in inflation added to investors’ hopes that the ECB will end its unprecedented string of 10 consecutive interest rate increases when its governing council meets on October 26.

“This reinforces our view that the ECB has finished raising interest rates,” said Jack Allen-Reynolds, an economist at research group Capital Economics, according to the FT. “Nevertheless, we continue to think that the bank won’t start cutting rates until late 2024.”

Inflation in the eurozone has fallen from a peak of 10.6% last year. Price pressures in the bloc have receded more slowly than in the US, which reported inflation of 3.7% in August, but faster than in the UK, where inflation was 6.7% last month.

European government bonds rallied after the better than expected figures for eurozone and French inflation were published, while equity markets strengthened.

Following turmoil in European bond markets on Thursday, Italian 10-year government bond yields fell 0.15 percentage points to 4.76 per cent on Friday, down from their highest level in a decade. At the same time, German 10-year bond yields slipped 0.1 percentage points to 2.85 per cent, having also hit a 10-year high during the previous trading session.

The euro strengthened 0.4 per cent against the dollar to $1.0603. In equity markets, Europe’s region-wide Stoxx 600 added 1 per cent and Germany’s Dax rose 0.6 per cent. London’s FTSE 100 rose 0.6 per, while France’s Cac 40 index gained 0.7 per cent.

And while the drop in inflation is good, the question is how bad will the coming stagflation be. The eurozone economy is widely expected to shrink in the third quarter and separate data published on Friday added to these fears after German retail sales fell for the third consecutive month in August, dropping 1.2 per cent from July. French household spending fell 0.5 per cent in the same period.

Despite the recent jump in oil prices, the cost of energy in the eurozone fell 4.7 per cent in the year to September, a faster decline than the previous month. There were also falls in food, alcohol and tobacco inflation to 8.8 per cent and in goods inflation to 4.2 per cent. Services inflation slowed to 4.7 per cent, dragged down by a sharp monthly fall in airfares.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/29/2023 – 11:25

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UAW Unleashes “Wave Of Reinforcements” As Strikes Intensify At Ford & GM Amid Strained Talks; Progress Seen With Stellantis

UAW Unleashes “Wave Of Reinforcements” As Strikes Intensify At Ford & GM Amid Strained Talks; Progress Seen With Stellantis

United Auto Workers boss Shawn Fain announced Friday morning in a live-stream event that strikes against two of Detroit’s automakers – General Motors and Ford – will be hit by another wave of strikes. The union boss said Chrysler-parent Stellantis had made meaningful progress on a new four-year labor contract and will skirt around additional strikes this week.  

Fain said he’s calling on an additional 7,000 workers across Ford and GM to strike at noon. He asked workers at Ford’s Chicago assembly and GM’s Lansing Delta Township to “stand up” and go on strike at 1200 ET. 

Fain said expanded strikes would add 7,000 striking workers. At the moment, 12% of the union’s 146,000 workers at the Detroit automakers. 

“Our courageous members at these two plants are the next wave of reinforcements in our fight for record contracts,” the union boss said. He added, “We are not calling on additional members at Stellantis to go on strike because moments before this broadcast, the automaker made significant progress on the contract.” 

Fain said, “We are excited about this momentum at Stellantis and hope it continues … until then, we will keep building our arsenal of democracy and will win – our strategy is working.” 

Watch the broadcast here:

On Tuesday, Biden joined the picket line in an unprecedented move by a president. 

Then a report by Bloomberg disclosed on Thursday that UAW has reduced its pay hike demands from 40% to 30% with automakers over a new four-year labor contract.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/29/2023 – 11:00

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