Global Trade Collapses: One Of World's Largest Logistics Companies Slashes Forecast; Blames Europe, US Trade

Listening to the iPhone and Alibaba infotainment channel, the name TNT Express has been mentioned exactly zero times today. For those who are unaware, Dutch TNT Express, which UPS tried to acquire in 2012, is one of the world’s largest logistics companies competing with UPS, FDX and DHL. And the reason the name is important this morning, and thus why it is being avoided on this side of the Atlantic, is because earlier today it provided the latest confirmation of Goldman showed previously, namely that the global economy has not only hit a brick wall, but is now in reverse, when it warned that as a result of “weak growth in Europe and the US” it would not meet its overoptimistic full-year targets. The result: its stock plunged by 11%. And since global logistics and trade, or lack thereof, is universal, expect FedEx and UPS to follow shortly with guidance cuts of their own in the coming days and weeks.

From Expatica:

TNT Express shares slumped almost 11 percent on Wednesday after the Dutch courier company warned it is unlikely to meet its full-year targets due to weak growth in Europe and the US.

 

TNT said it was “no longer prudent to maintain our 2015 guidance — which assumed an economic growth rate in Europe of between 2 and 3 percent — of an adjusted operating margin of 8 percent” for Europe and the Americas.

 

The news sent its shares tumbling 10.5 percent to 5.03 euros on the Amsterdam stock exchange.

 

TNT also warned it was making a provision of 50 million euros ($64 million) to pay a fine resulting from a French probe into alleged anti-competitive behaviour.
Concerns have been mounting about weak economic growth in the EU, with a key survey on Tuesday showing business activity in the 18-nation eurozone slowed this month.

 

“Overall trading conditions in Europe have deteriorated further and competitive pressures have increased,” the company said in a statement.

 

TNT said in July it was under investigation by the French Competition Authorities (FCA) and that it had cooperated with the probe involving several French and foreign delivery companies since it began in 2010.

 

“TNT is now entering into a settlement with the FCA with respect to the investigation of alleged anti-competitive behaviour in the French parcels delivery sector,” the courier said.

 

The size of the fine is not expected to be known before the end of 2015 and so TNT “will be making a financial provision of 50 million euros in the third quarter”.

 

TNT Express operates in more than 200 countries and maintains a leading role in the road freight network in Europe. It currently employs some 65,000 people.

Surprised? Don’t be. Remember: in the New Abnormal central banks can print everything except trade, which is why yesterday the WTO cut its global trade forecast once again, saying trade in goods will grow by 3.1% this year, much less than the 4.7% the WTO forecast in April. It cited “weaker-than expected GDP growth and muted import demand in the first half,” according to a statement. The WTO did the usual hockeysticking for 2015, when it said trade was likely to grow 4.0% in 2015 rather than the 5.3% expected previously, still far below the 20-year average of 5.2%. The excuse, aside from snow in the winter of course, “risks abound in the form of geopolitical tensions, regional conflict and health crises (Ebola)”.

Sure enough, Ukraine and Ebola are now the global scapegoats for yet another year of central planning gone wrong: just as we said they would be over 3 months ago.

Finally, keep an eye on Trade, because it really is the most important indicator of what is truly happening with the global economy. It was in April 2013 when we presented “The Most Disturbing Chart From Today’s IMF Outlook Revision“, showing the collapsing sequential revisions of global trade.

Until such time as trade actually does pick up, there can be no reasonable hope of any regional or global economic growth.




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Afghan President Hamid Karzai Slams U.S. Foreign Policy in Farewell Speech

Submitted by Mike Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

You’ve got to hand it to the brain surgeons running America’s foreign policy. They possess an uncanny ability to seamlessly forge alliances, break alliances and turn former allies into existential enemies, while simultaneously demonizing regimes, making amends with demonized regimes, and then quickly forming alliances with the same bitter enemies.

Friends become enemies and enemies become friends in the blink of an eye. This is what happens when a global empire possesses no real foreign policy other than the pursuit of economic opportunities for mega corporations and the military-industrial complex. The result is perpetual war, countless dead and injured young men and women, and billions of riches for a small and ruthless cadre of oligarchs. This is American foreign policy and those are its results.

Of course, I’m not the only one to notice the repercussions of America’s for profit foreign policy. Former U.S. darling and outgoing Afghan President Hamid Karzai slammed American foreign policy in his farewell speech earlier today. Here are excerpts from New York Times’ coverage:

KABUL, Afghanistan — Afghanistan’s departing president, Hamid Karzai, used his final speech to his cabinet and senior staff members to make a bitter swipe at the United States and some of its Western allies on Tuesday, blaming them for many of the country’s ongoing problems.

 

“America did not want peace for Afghanistan, because it had its own agendas and goals here,” he said. “I have always said this: that if America and Pakistan want peace, it is possible to bring peace to Afghanistan.”

 

“I want to thank those countries who genuinely supported us. Western countries had their personal interest, the Western countries and the United States had their own personal goal,” Mr. Karzai said.

 

“I believe the stability of Afghanistan is directly related to United States and Pakistan,” Mr. Karzai said. “If the United States and Pakistan want, peace can be brought to Afghanistan because it is not our war and there is no fight among the Afghans. It is not a combat among the people living in this soil. This war is for the personal interest of foreign policies and this is fight of outsiders in which Afghans are sacrificed.”

Jeremy Scahill summarized U.S. foreign policy perfectly in a Tweet earlier today in reference to the oligarchy finally getting its Syria war after multiple attempts over the past several years:

Indeed. Eisenhower warned Americans more than half a century ago and we didn’t listen. Karzai is warning his countrymen now. Will they heed the call?




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A Copyright Ruling in California Could Spell Trouble for Oldies Radio

I'm not the one you want, Babe.If you live in California and listen to oldies
radio, don’t be surprised if your favorite station suddenly decides
to change its format. Thanks to a court decision that came down
this week, it might become a lot costlier for stations in that
state to play music made before 1972.

The plaintiffs in the case are the Turtles, a
’60s band best known for the song “Happy Together.”
(More precisely, the plaintiffs are Flo & Eddie, a
successor act with a litigious
history
. They own the rights to the Turtles’ name and
recordings.) The defendant is the satellite-radio megalith SiriusXM.
In a nutshell, Flo & Eddie
argue
that the broadcaster violated their rights each time it
transmitted a Turtles record without their consent.

This is where things get complicated. There is a difference
between owning the rights to a song and owning the rights
to a recording. (Bob Dylan owns the song “It Ain’t Me
Babe”; Flo & Eddie own the Turtles’ recording of it.) If you
own a song, you’re entitled to a fee when it is played on the air.
If you own a recording, the situation is more complex. You don’t
get royalties when the record is played on AM or FM radio. You
do get royalties when it’s played on Internet radio, for
reasons
related to fears of piracy
. Because of the way the law defines
“digital transmission,” satellite stations have to pay those
digital fees too.

But federal copyright protection didn’t apply to sound
recordings before February 15, 1972. SiriusXM takes the position
that this means it doesn’t have to pay when it airs music recorded
before then. (That covers pretty much everything by the Turtles.)
But the Copyright Act of 1976 says the states can still
set the rules for those pre-1972 rights. And under California law,
copyright holders have “exclusive ownership” to those recordings
until 2047. Flo & Eddie argued that this gives them
considerable control over what could be done with those old Turtles
records. In this week’s
decision
, U.S. District Judge Philip Gutierrez agreed.

“Exclusive ownership,” Gutierrez reasoned, means “the right to
use and possess the recording to the exclusion of others.”
California’s law, unlike the federal law, puts only one limit on
this control: The rightsholder may not prevent someone from
recording a remake of the record. Since this is the only exception
specified, the judge concluded that no other exemptions were
intended. He therefore issued a summary judgment for Flo &
Eddie on the parts of its suit related to SiriusXM’s broadcasts.
(Some other aspects of the case are still to be decided.) The
ruling did not determine the damages, but SiriusXM may owe millions
now not just to Flo & Eddie but to countless other owners of
pre-’72 copyrights.

SiriusXM is likely to appeal the ruling. In the meantime, Flo
& Eddie have filed similar suits in New York and Florida. Other
copyright holders, including the major record labels, have launched
lawsuits of their own.

Most media coverage of Gutierrez’s decision has stressed
the impact it will have on SiriusXM and on Internet services such
as Pandora. But the case could conceivably threaten any ordinary AM
oldies outlet that operates in California. The decision doesn’t
explicitly say AM and FM stations have to pay these fees, and you
can expect broadcasters’ lawyers to claim that this means they’re
off the hook. But the judge’s whole argument is based on the idea
that there are no exceptions to the copyright holder’s
rights save the single item spelled out in the state’s statute.
That suggests that radio stations—and, for that matter, restaurants
and bars that play recorded music—will have to either start paying
steep fees to play pre-’72 music or just take the easy road and
play something recorded more recently. (I asked Dennis Wharton, a
VP at the National Association of Broadcasters, if his group had
any comment on the decision. He replied that they were still
reviewing it.)

For years, the record industry has been trying
to get
Congress to make analog broadcasters cough up the extra
fees that digital broadcasters have to pay. It may have just gotten
what it wanted through the back door, but only for records that are
more than 42 years old, and only in California. Watch for some
bizarre distortions in the radio marketplace.

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World Proxy War I – Mapping The Foreign Troops Fighting In Syria And Iraq

If only a year ago, someone had suggested that World Proxy War I would break out on the territory of what used to be Iraq and Syria, they would be deemed insane and put away in the Marriner Eccles building or some other insane asylum.

And yet, as AFP’s latest map shows, as of this moment nearly 20 nations from around the globe have deployed boots on the ground to battle a terrorist threat, which at least according to the people of Iraq, was once again created by the CIA. The biggest wildcard, of course, is how many troops the US itself has deployed, whether in “boots on the ground” of CIA “flip-flops” format, to pursue yet another regional destabilization and localized war, one, however which may just spill over in a violent and quite uncontrollable fashion.

And yes, according to the map below, it is Russia of all countries, that has the largest military presence on the most contested region on planet earth right now.

Source




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Whatever You Do, Don’t Look At Goldman’s Latest Swirlogram, But If You Must…

Remember when conventional wisdom was that the world in 2014 was humming on all cylinders? Good times. Then this happened: according to Goldman’s Global Leading Indicator, aka its famous “Swirlogram”, global growth just hit a brick wall in the month of September.

From Goldman:

Despite still robust US growth outturns, and expectations of a Q4 bounce in China’s real GDP numbers, the Advanced GLI reading for September (released last Thursday, September 18) suggests that the global industrial cycle will start to slow. GLI growth, month-on-month, slipped a bit in September, though is still positive. This sequential downturn in growth, modest though it may be, pushed the Advanced GLI into the Slowdown phase of the cycle (see Exhibit 7). This reading is keyed off the September Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey, which is used as a proxy for global September PMI numbers that have yet to be released. During the past year or so, we have found that phase shifts first become visible in the Advanced GLI and are, for several months unwound by the Final GLI before settling in for good. So the September Final GLI – due out on October 1st – may well still be in Expansion, though sequential changes in growth may be barely positive, as was the case in August.

Oh well when all else once again fails, as it will, there is always the, dun dun dun, Untaper.




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Whatever You Do, Don't Look At Goldman's Latest Swirlogram, But If You Must…

Remember when conventional wisdom was that the world in 2014 was humming on all cylinders? Good times. Then this happened: according to Goldman’s Global Leading Indicator, aka its famous “Swirlogram”, global growth just hit a brick wall in the month of September.

From Goldman:

Despite still robust US growth outturns, and expectations of a Q4 bounce in China’s real GDP numbers, the Advanced GLI reading for September (released last Thursday, September 18) suggests that the global industrial cycle will start to slow. GLI growth, month-on-month, slipped a bit in September, though is still positive. This sequential downturn in growth, modest though it may be, pushed the Advanced GLI into the Slowdown phase of the cycle (see Exhibit 7). This reading is keyed off the September Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey, which is used as a proxy for global September PMI numbers that have yet to be released. During the past year or so, we have found that phase shifts first become visible in the Advanced GLI and are, for several months unwound by the Final GLI before settling in for good. So the September Final GLI – due out on October 1st – may well still be in Expansion, though sequential changes in growth may be barely positive, as was the case in August.

Oh well when all else once again fails, as it will, there is always the, dun dun dun, Untaper.




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Conservative Pundit D'Souza, Convicted for Giving Money to Friends For Illegal Motives, To Undergo Court-Ordered "Therapeutic Counseling"

It’s not enough to do the court-ordered time for the crime of
giving money to your friends for motives the state has decided are
felony crimes when that motive is to support a political
candidate–this is the land of the free where political
participation is near-sacred, and one can participate in the
electoral process only with a narrow set of state-approved methods,
and don’t you forget it, and don’t you disagree with it either.

The punishment imposed in the case of conservative pundit and
anti-Obama filmmaker Dinesh D’Souza show you must also agree
that it is good you were convicted, apparently.


From Reuters
:

D’Souza, 53, was ordered by U.S. District Judge Richard Berman
in Manhattan to live in a center, which would allow him to leave
during non-residential hours for employment, for the first eight
months of a five-year probationary period.

Berman also ordered D’Souza to perform one day of community
service a week during probation, undergo weekly therapy and pay a
$30,000 fine.

D’Souza, a frequent critic of U.S. President Barack
Obama
, admitted in May to illegally reimbursing two “straw
donors” who donated $10,000 each to the unsuccessful 2012 U.S.
Senate campaign in New York of Wendy Long, a Republican he had
known since attending Dartmouth College in the early 1980s….

Prosecutors had sought a 10-to 16-month prison sentence,
rejecting defense arguments that D’Souza was “ashamed and contrite”
about his crime and deserved probation with community service.

They cited statements D’Souza made in media interviews after his
guilty plea, where he discussed being “selectively” targeted for
prosecution….

“I’m not sure, Mr. D’Souza, that you get it,” Berman said before
announcing the sentence. “And it is still hard for me to discern
any personal acceptance of responsibility in this case.”

Daily Beast refers to the
legally imposed therapy
in quotes from the court as
“therapeutic counseling.” Forced therapy for enemies of the regime:
it’s not just for our sinister enemies abroad anymore in this
better, more peaceful post-Cold War world.

Have you ever maxed out on your legal contributions to a
political candidate? Have you ever given or loaned money to a
friend? Better make sure that friend hasn’t also given money to
that candidate, or you could be opening yourself to federal
investigations into your motives in the giving or knowledge of
their giving.

This may require a fairly officious level of investigation into
your life and papers, but hey, you might have broken the law and
this is a nation of laws, lots and lots of laws that you might have
broken. And if you broke them, you better understand that you broke
them and accept responsibility. It’s the American way.

I blogged a few months back about how
D’Souza’s admission of “guilt”
didn’t amend my belief that the
charges were a miscarriage of true justice.

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Conservative Pundit D’Souza, Convicted for Giving Money to Friends For Illegal Motives, To Undergo Court-Ordered “Therapeutic Counseling”

It’s not enough to do the court-ordered time for the crime of
giving money to your friends for motives the state has decided are
felony crimes when that motive is to support a political
candidate–this is the land of the free where political
participation is near-sacred, and one can participate in the
electoral process only with a narrow set of state-approved methods,
and don’t you forget it, and don’t you disagree with it either.

The punishment imposed in the case of conservative pundit and
anti-Obama filmmaker Dinesh D’Souza show you must also agree
that it is good you were convicted, apparently.


From Reuters
:

D’Souza, 53, was ordered by U.S. District Judge Richard Berman
in Manhattan to live in a center, which would allow him to leave
during non-residential hours for employment, for the first eight
months of a five-year probationary period.

Berman also ordered D’Souza to perform one day of community
service a week during probation, undergo weekly therapy and pay a
$30,000 fine.

D’Souza, a frequent critic of U.S. President Barack
Obama
, admitted in May to illegally reimbursing two “straw
donors” who donated $10,000 each to the unsuccessful 2012 U.S.
Senate campaign in New York of Wendy Long, a Republican he had
known since attending Dartmouth College in the early 1980s….

Prosecutors had sought a 10-to 16-month prison sentence,
rejecting defense arguments that D’Souza was “ashamed and contrite”
about his crime and deserved probation with community service.

They cited statements D’Souza made in media interviews after his
guilty plea, where he discussed being “selectively” targeted for
prosecution….

“I’m not sure, Mr. D’Souza, that you get it,” Berman said before
announcing the sentence. “And it is still hard for me to discern
any personal acceptance of responsibility in this case.”

Daily Beast refers to the
legally imposed therapy
in quotes from the court as
“therapeutic counseling.” Forced therapy for enemies of the regime:
it’s not just for our sinister enemies abroad anymore in this
better, more peaceful post-Cold War world.

Have you ever maxed out on your legal contributions to a
political candidate? Have you ever given or loaned money to a
friend? Better make sure that friend hasn’t also given money to
that candidate, or you could be opening yourself to federal
investigations into your motives in the giving or knowledge of
their giving.

This may require a fairly officious level of investigation into
your life and papers, but hey, you might have broken the law and
this is a nation of laws, lots and lots of laws that you might have
broken. And if you broke them, you better understand that you broke
them and accept responsibility. It’s the American way.

I blogged a few months back about how
D’Souza’s admission of “guilt”
didn’t amend my belief that the
charges were a miscarriage of true justice.

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A.M. Links: Rebel Groups Claim Civilian Casualties in U.S. Airstrikes in Syria, Obama Criticized for Salute of Marine, Romney Could Run for President Again

  • Obama salutes with coffee cup in handRebel groups claim that U.S.
    airstrikes against ISIS targets in
    Syria
    also hit civilians. The Pentagon, meanwhile, says
    airstrikes didn’t just target ISIS but also the
    Khorasan
    group, reportedly an Al-Qaeda offshoot interested in
    orchestrating the next 9/11.
  • People with nothing better to mess themselves over are upset at
    the way
    President Obama
    held a coffee cop while saluting a Marine.
  • According to his wife,
    Mitt Romney
    could run for president again, especially if Jeb
    Bush doesn’t.
  • The mayor of
    Boston
    will appoint a chief of arts and culture.
  • The U.S. condemned a life sentence imposed by
    China
    on an ethnic Uighur scholar and human rights
    activist.
  • India’s first probe to
    Mars
    , the Mars Orbiter Mission or MOM, is arriving at the red
    planet.

Follow Reason and Reason 24/7 on
Twitter, and like us on Facebook. You
can also get the top stories mailed to you—sign up
here
.

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Why Libertarians (and Everyone Else) Love South Park

In a world of
constant war, endless “economic recoveries,” and only two years
left of Joe Biden gaffes, it’s hard to be upbeat about the
future. I mean, what kind of joyless world are we leaving for our
children?

So thank Xenu—or Richard Dawkins—for South Park,
which starts its 18th incredible season tonight at 10 p.m.
eastern time on Comedy Central. What’s more, original episodes
of the show will continue through at least 2016, meaning the next
presidential election will be covered the way it should be: with
scabrous humor….

South Park is that rarest of birds: an envelope-pushing
commercial success. In a
new Daily Beast column
, I argue that Trey Parker and
Matt Stone’s creation is qualitatively different that past TV
standouts:

Classic TV shows such
as I Love LucyThe Beverly
Hillbillies
Cheers, and even the
path-breaking Seinfeld all provoked laughs that
made the world disappear for a half-hour. South
Park
 is not just funnier than any of those shows—it
refuses to let us escape the god-forsaken world in which we live.
Indeed, episode after episode (glorious,
full list here
) rubs our noses in the ugliness of our world,
whether it be caused by terrorists, legally elected politicians,
insufferable atheists, ultra-pious and delusional businessmen,
idiot celebrities, or our own love of fast food and video
games.

Even better, South Park not only allows us to
laugh at the darkness rising all around us—it also teaches us to
navigate the endless slurry of bullshit firehosed at our faces in
the so-called Information Age. God help us all, but South
Park
 is more educational than all the endless hours
of Sesame Street or Between the
Lions
 that ever aired or will ever air on PBS. It teaches
us all real media literacy, how to identify and spot phony
philosophizing, moral panics, and self-interested crusades a mile
way.


Read the whole thing.

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