Wall Street’s Shills Are Starting to Feel Trump’s Chinese Cold War Chills

Jim Cramer looked a little worried this evening, during his Maddening Money programme. All throughout the elections, the establishment elite, globalist shills, underestimated Trump’s desires to make America great again. With today’s electoral college win and Trump’s persistent lack of subservience to China, the shills on Wall Street are starting to wonder if it’s really happening.

It really is this time, happening that is.

In the brief clip below, Cramer summarizes what he believes to be Trump’s position on China, which plainly states we’re already in a trade war with China and Trump isn’t gonna take it anymore, God damn it. According to Goldman Sachs, these companies have the most exposure to China. china

 

Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

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Caution: Protection Required

Via NorthmanTrader.com,

Negativity has been replaced by positivity, any sense of caution has been thrown to the wind, bullishness is pervasive and bears look like idiots. In short: All the conditions one wants to see if one is interested in a market fade or at least in getting some protection.

On December 4 I suggested new highs on markets were a fading opportunity, especially in context of low volatility. I outlined technical upside risk into 2235-2275 on the $SPX. Subsequently $SPX exceeded my risk range by 2 points before retreating a bit.

Now that the risk range has been approached I would like to share a few updated charts that support my technical basis for major risk coming to these markets.

Firstly, a long term monthly chart on the $SPX reveals the entire 2016 rally to be a lot weaker than advertised as it comes with pronounced negative divergences in relative strength and a weak MACD in context of a very much narrowing bearish wedge pattern:

spxm

Granted negative divergences seem not to have mattered much in 2016, but they never do until they do. And, in my view, they remain a major red flag on any new highs. The pattern could extend into 2017 as I’ve discussed before, but either way you look at it the air is getting thin with plenty of corrective risk to the downside.

In this context last week’s weekly rejection candle has a rare, but familiar ring to it:

spxw

Here of note is that investors have been piling into stocks not only at all time highs, but also at the highest GAAP P/E valuation in many years.

Most notably in this context are the transports which also show a familiar pattern:

tran

Note new highs coming on not only a negative divergence, but also following a rounding bottom pattern and pushing above the monthly Bollinger bands. Precisely the same conditions we can observe in 2000 and 2007.

That said all indices look strong for the moment and remain far above their key longer term moving averages. A look under the hood however suggests engine trouble in the works:

Stocks above their 200 day moving average continue to lag and are not confirming the recent advance:

spx200ar

And volatility remains the undiscovered country. The longer term chart continues to suggest a rounding bottom which opens the door for significant volatility to come as relative strength continues to show a positive divergence:

vxom

In light of recent market strength I stand firm in my analytical view that risk is highly underpriced and markets continue to set up for major pain as recent highs have come in context of larger bearish structures that have produced a new found bullishness in markets, perhaps a key ingredient that was lacking over the past couple of years.

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Twice As Many “Faithless” Electors Dump Clinton As Trump

While there was a lot of buzz about faithless Republican electors dumping Trump, it turns out that more Democratic electors dumped Clinton.

Specifically, two Republican Texas electors voted for candidates other than Trump:  one voted for John Kasich and one voted for Ron Paul.

But four Democratic electors voted for candidates other than Hillary Clinton:

Only eight of 12 Democratic electors in Washington cast their votes for Democrat Hillary Clinton, who won the state in November.

 

In an act of symbolic protest, three electors voted for former Secretary of State Colin Powell, and one cast a vote for Faith Spotted Eagle, a Native American elder from South Dakota.

 

It’s the first time in four decades that any Washington electors have broken from the state’s popular vote for president.

 

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CalPERS Announces Plans To Sell $15BN In Equities Over Next Two Years

The California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) has just announced that they will be net sellers of $15 billion worth of equities over the next two years.  While the board didn’t offer specific market commentary in support of the decision, according to Reuters, Chief Investment Officer Ted Eliopoulos cited market volatility, a 68% funded status and negative cash flow as the key reasons for the shift…we’re sure that record high equity valuations on basically every metric ever measured had little to do with the decision. 

The Board’s overall asset reallocation plan calls for 46% of the fund’s $300 billion in total assets to be invested in global equities, down from the previous target of 51%.  The private equity allocation was also expected to be cut from 10% down to 8%.  Meanwhile, those reductions are planned to be replaced with larger allocations to real estate and infrastructure, inflation and liquidity assets.

CalPERS Chief Investment Officer Ted Eliopoulos said the board considered the recent volatility of the market, along with the fund’s 68 percent funding status and negative cash flow, when it made the decision. The changes will take place over the next two years.

 

The global equity asset class will see the largest change of a 5 percentage point reduction from 51 percent to 46 percent of the overall portfolio. Private equity will be reduced from 10 percent to 8 percent in order to reduce some of the risks in the fund, said Eliopoulos.

 

Real assets, such as real estate and infrastructure, will be increased by 1 percentage point from 12 percent to 13 percent of the overall portfolio. The inflation and liquidity assets classes will increase by 3 percentage points from 6 percent to 9 percent and 1 percent to 4 percent, respectively.

Of course, as the Board meets over the next couple of days, they’ll also be faced with the decision whether their long-term assumed rate of return on assets should be lowered from the current 7.5% down to a more reasonable 6%.  While that decision may seem obvious to most of us, the CalPERS Board has to carefully weigh whether they’ll rely on sound financial judgement and math to set their rate of return expectations going forward or whether they’ll cave to political pressure to maintain artificially high return hurdles that they’ll never meet but help to maintain their ponzi scheme a little longer.  

As recently pointed out by Pensions & Investments, the decision has far-reaching consequences.  First, a lower rate of return will equate to higher contribution levels for municipalities throughout California, many of which are on the verge of bankruptcy already.  Second, given that CALPERS is the largest pension fund in the United States, a move to lower return hurdles could set a precedent that would have to be followed by other funds around the country in even worse shape (yes, we’re looking at you Illinois).

The stakes are high as the CalPERS board debates whether to significantly decrease the nation’s largest public pension fund’s assumed rate of return, a move that could hamstring the budgets of contributing municipalities as well as prompt other public funds across the country to follow suit.

 

But if the retirement system doesn’t act, pushing to achieve an unrealistically high return could threaten the viability of the $299.5 billion fund itself, its top investment officer and consultants say.

 

“Being aggressive, having a reasonable amount of volatility and (being) wrong could lead to an unrecoverable loss,” Andrew Junkin, president of Wilshire Consulting, the system’s general investment consultant, told the board at a November meeting. CalPERS’ current portfolio is pegged to a 7.5% return and a 13% volatility rate.

 

The chief investment officer of the California Public Employees’ Retirement System and its investment consultants now say that assumed annualized rate of return is unlikely to be achieved over the next decade, given updated capital market assumptions that show a slow-growing economy and continued low interest rates.

 

Still, cities, towns and school districts that are part of the Sacramento-based system say they can’t afford increased contributions they would be forced to pay to provide pension benefits if the return rate is lowered.

Of course, the math would seem to imply that a lower return assumption is warranted given low global interest rates and equity markets that are drastically overvalued by almost any historical measure.  Moreover, for 3 out of the past 5 calendar years, CALPERS has missed their 7.5% return threshold and their 10-year cumulative returns are 6.2%, a far cry from their 7.5% projection.

Only a year earlier, CalPERS investment staff and consultants had agreed that CalPERS was on the right track with its 7.5% figure. So confident were they that they urged the board to approve a risk mitigation plan that did lower the rate of return, but over a 20-year period, and only when returns were in excess of the 7.5% assumption.

 

Two years of subpar results — a 0.6% return for the fiscal year ended June 30 and a 2.4% return in fiscal 2015 — reduced views of what CalPERS can earn over the next decade. Mr. Junkin said at the November meeting that Wilshire was predicting an annual return of 6.21% for the next decade, down from its estimates of 7.1% a year earlier.

 

Indeed, Mr. Junkin and Mr. Eliopoulos said the system’s very survival could be at stake if board members don’t lower the rate of return. “Being conservative leads to higher contributions, but you still have a sustainable benefit to CalPERS members,” Mr. Junkin said.

Calpers

Calpers

 

Of course, mathematical realities have to be weighed against the risk of disrupting the ponzi scheme and forcing several California cities to the brink of bankruptcy.

But a CalPERS return reduction would just move the burden to other government units. Groups representing municipal governments in California warn that some cities could be forced to make layoffs and major cuts in city services as well as face the risk of bankruptcy if they have to absorb the decline through higher contributions to CalPERS.

 

“This is big for us,” Dane Hutchings, a lobbyist with the League of California Cities, said in an interview. “We’ve got cities out there with half their general fund obligated to pension liabilities. How do you run a city with half a budget?”

 

CalPERS documents show that some governmental units could see their contributions more than double if the rate of return was lowered to 6%. Mr. Hutchings said bankruptcies might occur if cities had a major hike without it being phased in over a period of years. CalPERS’ annual report in September on funding levels and risks also warned of potential bankruptcies by governmental units if the rate of return was decreased.

We’ve seen this battle between math/logic and politicians played out numerous times in states all across the country.  Somehow we suspect that “math/logic” will continue to lose…better to bury your head in the sand for a couple of more years and pretend there is no problem.

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Financialism, Not Capitalism

Submitted by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

Thirty-nine delegates signed the United States Constitution in September 1787, but three refused to. George Mason, Edmund Randolph, and Elbridge Gerry were against the final draft of the document, Gerry included even though he had chaired the committee that had produced the Great Compromise. Campaigning in his native Massachusetts, the former Revolutionary who had previously served in the Continental Congress among the Boston delegation of John Adams, John Hancock, and Samuel Adams arguing stridently for Independence, Gerry denounced the un-amended governing principles as “full of vices.”

He was not alone in is opposition, as throughout the country there was a great debate more so about what was missing from it. Several of the states ratified it anyway, but on the explicit condition that it be amended with what became the Bill of Rights. James Madison, who drafted most of the text, wrote out 19, drawing from the Virginia Declaration of Rights largely written by George Mason. Madison proposed them to Congress on June 8, 1789; the House affirming 17, the Senate 12.

The final ten were ratified on December 15, 1791, two and a quarter centuries ago last week. One of the final 12 that was rejected by the states, the original unratified Second Amendment (Congress could not change their pay until an election took place), was actually added as the 27th in 1992 over two hundred years later. Though that proposed item is an obscure political, historical reference, we know very well what became the actual Second, as the First, but also perhaps the Fifth.

The Fifth Amendment decrees, “No person shall be…deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation.” Private property is central in this amendment because private property was understood then as a central check not just on government but as the primary tangible instrument of freedom. There was and is everything a man might think up and dream, but what he could do with such endeavors is as important in the plying of a just and stable social arrangement.

John Adams once wrote, “The moment the idea is admitted into society, that property is not as sacred as the law of God, and that there is not a force of law and public justice to protect it, anarchy and tyranny commence.” George Mason himself had declared, “Frequent interference with private property and contracts, retrospective laws destructive of all public faith, as well as confidence between man and man, and flagrant violations of the Constitution must disgust the best and wisest part of the community, occasion a general depravity of manners, bring the legislature into contempt, and finally produce anarchy and public convulsion.”

It wasn’t just the Founding Fathers who called private property the “bedrock of capitalism”, though of course they never used those terms invented later, as it had been very well understood especially as an outgrowth of the Enlightenment. Winston Churchill, the greatest of English statesmen, said in the 20th century that:

Personally I think that private property has a right to be defended. Our civilisation is built up on property, and can only be defended by private property.

As private property defines capitalism and freedom, it offends collectivism and socialism. Friedrich Engels wrote, “the slave frees himself when, of all the relations of private property, he abolishes only the relation of slavery and thereby becomes a proletarian; the proletarian can free himself only by abolishing private property in general.” Hippy folksinger and little “c” communist Pete Seeger suggested, “In a world of private property, if something isn’t owned by somebody, it’s going to be misused by somebody else.”

To all sides, banking has been a subject of so much consternation because it is a basic offense to all these perhaps intrinsic ideals. To the socialists and collectivists, banks are a primary source of inequality and oppression; to the original principles of the Bill of Rights, they can be too much wiggle room. For many today, banks should be abolished; to the founding generation they were to be severely constrained. One of the ways in which the latter could be accomplished was private property under the Constitution and Bill of Rights, and the inclusion of money into that realm.

The argument for modern banking, however, is that the needs of modern economy cannot be so restrained. The most extreme example, for those that take this line of argument, was the Great Depression. Banking had become a vital, central instrument of trade and general commerce, and therefore pure emotions of the people who had by their rights as property owners deprived banks of necessary funds with which to maintain trade and the nation’s economic welfare. Banks were increasingly removed from property law and placed more and more unto financial law that imposes this socialist view (the “greater” good).

I use the term “repo” exclusively not because it is shorthand but because it is altogether different from what the full term suggests. A repo is not a repurchase agreement; it is a collateralized loan. The way in which the latter became the former demonstrates a great deal about the overlaying of financialism in banking and modern money. For a very long time as repo became more popular, there was no actual agreement as to what a repurchase agreement actually was. It was not only unstandardized, it was treated very differently under the law.

When the US Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit ruled on American National Bank of Austin vs. United States of America in January 1970, they overturned the District Court’s ruling siding with the Bank of Austin against the IRS. The government had charged the bank with a tax assessment based on its own ruling that the Bank did not own the municipal bonds which it had claimed as generating untaxable interest. The District Court found that repurchase agreements as they related to collateralized loans did not transfer title of ownership; the Appeals Court found instead:

Since sale-versus-loan cases turn upon their own particular facts, United States v. Ivey, 5 Cir., 1969, 414 F.2d 199, the decided cases which have considered the precise question presented here offer little directional guidance toward a proper resolution of this case. We therefore take the route of ad hoc exploration through an expanse of essentially undisputed facts, see United States v. Winthrop, 5 Cir., 1969, 417 F.2d 905, to find that taxpayer was not entitled to the section 103(a)(1) income exclusion. [emphasis added]

In citing United States v. Ivey, the Appeals Court was reaching back to a similar case of ownership question vis a vis taxation (it’s always taxation, i.e., the legitimate boundaries of government) in the collateralized arrangement of physical commodities. James L. Ivey was a cotton farmer in the El Paso Valley of Texas who throughout the 1950’s engaged financial relationships with RT Hoover Company, a brokerage firm. Ivey appointed Hoover as his agent in the sale of his cotton for each planting season, and through that arrangement Hoover would warehouse the commodities until sales could be realized. Hoover would, at times, obtain loans collateralized by the warehouse cotton receipts and from time to time advance cash to Mr. Ivey from those loan proceeds for expenses related to the engagement of cotton farming.

Ivey had declared the advances from Hoover as income in the years in which they were still outstanding; the IRS determined that they were instead loans, collateralized by cotton, and that only the sale proceeds could be declared income. Ivey contended that it was his understanding that the transactions were ownership changes upon delivery, proceeds or not. Further, since he paid no interest on the advances it was his understanding that upon delivery the cotton was Hoover’s. The Court concluded that, “to treat what are in fact loans as sales would distort the taxpayer’s income.”

The facts of United States v. Ivey do seem to confirm the Fifth Appeals Court’s ruling in Bank of Austin v. US; that cases involving repurchase agreements had to be determined on their own merits rather than treated in standardized fashion. The reason for that seemed more obvious at the time, but has become, I think, lost as the connection of money to property and then to economy was systematically erased during this era.

I wrote earlier this year about a preceding case that had also recognized the obscured boundaries of repos and the clear establishment of title. In Union Planters National Bank of Memphis, TN v United States of America, there wasn’t even uniformity among the repo counterparties as to what was going on in these several trades; some were booked as repurchase agreements and all the legal niceties that should be derived from it, including a transfer of ownership; others were accounted as repos, collateralized loans where the understanding of each counterparty is on those terms. The District Court in the Union Planters case wrote in what surely seems obvious frustration, “one dealer advertised for sale to its customers those bonds which had been transferred to the Bank.” Thus, what does “sale”, “transferred”, even “bonds” mean under these arrangements?

My preface to all this in May was,

If the bedrock proposition of capitalism is private property and clear title to it, then repos have done little except make a mockery of it. First of all, the term “repurchase agreement” sounds abundantly clear and concise: one party sells something to another with an attached agreement to buy it back at some later date at some predetermined price. Legal title to the “something” should easily follow accordingly. But as with so many financial practices, the intrusion of “financial” changes everything.

Repos would become standardized such that they were entirely understood as repos rather than repurchases. While that eliminated the individual concerns of case-by-case review of the facts, it also moved this form of money to become exclusively “money.” With standardization came proliferation, of course, to which is always assigned a positive outcome for the “great good.” It is only in these “later” years where these distinctions have been revealed as sticky and difficult for a great many good reasons.

Repo fails, in particular, are an insult to the capitalist tradition. One of the primary imbalances that led to directly to panic in 2008 was the near total failure of the repo market, itself brought to that state by among several things the Lehman failure. In a world of fluid “fails” and rehypothecation, what did bankruptcy mean for these collateral chains where ownership was just this kind of fuzzy financial relationship? It was the ultimate form of unstable money, and the results of such monetary instability became very shortly thereafter obvious to everyone.

It wasn’t just that one instance, however, as the whole of the wholesale monetary system had been unstable all along; it just had remained unchallenged prior to August 2007. A repo as distinct from a repurchase agreement is not reducible to defined terms. It is a peculiar instance of a system that works because it works. “Everyone” tolerates a certain amount of repo fails because that is just the cost of the “greater good” of fungible wholesale money.

Another way of writing that is to suggest that repo system participants tolerate a certain amount of embedded and often visible instability. No monetary system will ever be perfectly stable, of course, because money is a social construct subject to the ever-changing human condition. That was one reason why it was once given the protection as property, so as to better align our own individual interests with understanding these variable parameters.

Monetary policy is supposed to reduce instability through its various methods of currency elasticity, which is itself another form of socialism in money; to use more if intended instability to counter instability. The results have been predictable in just that way; central bankers for the most part satisfied that they had alleviated monetary issues in the banking system at least, while at the very same time the banking system became more and more unstable to the point of a global monetary shortage. We can see this very plainly through the conditions of the repo market:

abook-dec-2016-repo-stability-fails

abook-dec-2016-repo-stability-fails-8w

It is perfectly obvious that repo fails had been rising almost steadily since 2011, marked by short but intense bursts of illiquidity in the middle of 2013 and again in the middle of 2014. That all changed the week of August 12, 2015, a week we should all know very well by what happened with the Chinese yuan; not because it happened with CNY and the global importance of China, rather due to how the Chinese relate their system to the “dollar” system. Since repo fails are a highly observable form of unstable money becoming more unstable, the financial and economic results of the past year and a half are wholly unsurprising.

Since the last week in August 2016, repo fails have not been less than $200 billion (both “to receive” and “to deliver”) in any week. Of those fifteen weeks (thru the week of December 7), they have been greater than $300 billion eight times, including each of the past four weeks going back to the week after the election (which does not propose the election as the cause). Fails have been above the $500 billion level three times, and each of those weeks corresponding with a whole lot of Chinese money market instability (which does propose more than the contours of causation within a global monetary system).

In the 31 weeks of 2015 prior to that week in August, repo fails were more than $200 billion only three times; the highest level of fails was a spike to $285 billion the first week last March just before the Chinese starting pegging CNY for as long as they could. You could say that the repo market has become “used to” a higher degree of instability for operation over the past two years, but it is much harder to make the same claim for money markets and general economic function globally. To economists, the two are unrelated; understanding both eurodollar operations as well as how they got that way reveals that not only are the two related, one does follow closely the other.

abook-dec-2016-payrolls-participation-problem-cncf

 

Repo fails are only one possible form of monetary instability, but they are emblematic both of the immediate problem as well as the disease of the whole system. This is not capitalism, full stop. You can add whatever other term you like in its place, I use financialism not just because of the preference it gives to financial considerations above all else, especially economy, but also because the word embodies the balance of transformation from property law to finance law and all that has gone with it. The largest such drawback has to be not just the depression since 2007, but more so the derived inability of those who are supposed to know better, who claim they know better, but clearly don’t know any better about what has actually happened all this time.

In short, we’ve wasted just about ten years calling a depression a recovery, and all because money is so unstable that it has become, for the mainstream as well as mainstream authorities, unrecognizable. If you don’t know what money is, you aren’t going to know when money is a problem. 

When money was property, we all had to know better because it was our own that was at stake.  In the “modern” version, it is left centralized to the cabal of ignorance and ego, a concern that motivated exactly the writing, ratification, and righteous enshrinement of the Bill of Rights.

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Saddam Hussein’s CIA Interrogator Admits Being Convinced He Should Have Been Left In Power

In a new book due to hit shelves later this month, John Nixon, a former CIA officer who was responsible for interrogating Saddam Hussein after he was captured in 2003, admits being convinced by the fallen dictator that he was best suited to rule Iraq.  Per an excerpt published in Time Magazine, Nixon recalls an encounter with Hussein in which he warned that America would fail in Iraq because “you do not know the language, the history, and you do not understand the Arab mind.”

When I interrogated Saddam, he told me: “You are going to fail. You are going to find that it is not so easy to govern Iraq.” When I told him I was curious why he felt that way, he replied: “You are going to fail in Iraq because you do not know the language, the history, and you do not understand the Arab mind.”

Saddam Hussein

 

While Nixon found Hussein “thoroughly unlikeable,” he admits to walking away with a “grudging respect” for the fallen dictator’s ability maintain the Iraqi nation through forced consensus. 

Although I found Saddam to be thoroughly unlikeable, I came away with a grudging respect for how he was able to maintain the Iraqi nation as a whole for as long as he did. He told me once, “Before me, there was only bickering and arguing. I ended all that and made people agree!”

 

Saddam used every tool in his repertoire to maintain Iraq’s multi-ethnic state. Such tools included murder, blackmail, imprisonment, threats, and these were to be used to cow his enemies. For his friends, Saddam would dole out patronage to tribal leaders and supporters in the form of cash, elaborate gifts, land, and other largesse that was the lifeblood of an oil rich state. Today’s Iraq has been riven by deepening sectarianism that always seems to be only a step away from igniting again, as it did after Saddam’s overthrow.

 

Saddam also would have inevitably maintained a hostile stance toward Iran; he was very proud of his opposition to the Islamic Republic and reserved special contempt for the Shia in Iraq who would follow Iran’s guidance over his. Iraq is now very much the junior partner to a much emboldened Iranian regime that has expanded its military and security influence in the chaotic aftermath of Saddam’s overthrow and the aborted Arab Spring.

Of course, Trump has made similar comments about Hussein, comments that have drawn a lot of heat from the mainstream media.

“Saddam Hussein was a bad guy, right?  He was a bad guy.  Really bad guy.  But, you know what he did well?  He killed terrorists.  He did that so good.  They didn’t read them the rights. They didn’t talk.  They were a terrorist it was over.”

 

“Today, Iraq is Harvard for terrorism.  You want to be a terrorist, you go to Iraq.”

 

Finally, Nixon concludes that Trump has the opportunity to help shape a new regional order in the Middle East, though it will “require making tough decisions and, ultimately, recognizing that we may have to deal with people and leaders that we abhor if we want to help bring stability back to the region and limit the scope of terrorism’s reach.”

Our incoming president has the opportunity to play a very large role in shaping a new regional order in the Middle East. This will require making tough decisions and, ultimately, recognizing that we may have to deal with people and leaders that we abhor if we want to help bring stability back to the region and limit the scope of terrorism’s reach. Most of all, it will require placing diplomacy back into our foreign policy. President-elect Trump has shown with his election victory that he is a believer in “the art of the deal.” Maybe his administration can use this negotiating skill and end our involvement in the forever war.

Without opining on the merits of the strategy, certainly if there’s one thing we know for sure about Trump, it’s that he’s never shy to make the difficult decisions that will draw endless criticism from the mainstream media. 

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Trump Urges “Civilized World Must Change” After Today’s Terror Attacks

After a violent trifecta of a day, in which terrorist attacks left at least 9 dead and 50 injured in Germany after a truck plowed through a crowded Christmas market (see “Truck Ploughs Into Berlin Market Killing Nine, Over 50 Injured; US Condemns ‘What Appears To Be A Terrorist Attack’“); three more people hurt in a shooting at an Islamic Center in Zurich, Switzerland; and the Russian Ambassador to Turkey murdered on live television (see “Russian Ambassador In Turkey Murdered In Terrorist Attack By Shooter Screaming “Allahu Akbar” – Live Feed“), president-elect Trump dares to suggest that something has to change… 

 

Of course, this kind of insensitivity will merely inflame those left-leaning, more-immigration-is-better, everything-is-awesome members of society who will just keep ignoring this trend until it randomly strikes their own family (especially after a record number of Democratic electors migrated to the dark side).

Ironic really that “hope” is at near record highs across sentiment measures (markets and economics) and now Trump is calling for “change.”

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Campaign 2016 Comes to a Suitably Strange End As Ron Paul, Faith Spotted Eagle, Bernie Sanders, John Kasich, and Colin Powell Pick Up Votes in the Electoral College

The Electoral College voted today, bringing the weirdest election in generations to a suitably strange end. The final tally: 304 votes for Donald Trump, 227 for Hillary Clinton, three for Colin Powell, one for Ron Paul, one for Bernie Sanders, one for John Kasich, and one for anti-DAPL activist Faith Spotted Eagle. Trump was “supposed” to get 306, but two Republican electors in Texas broke with the pack, one voting for Kasich and one for Paul. Clinton was “supposed” to get 232, but four Democrats in Washington state and one in Hawaii decided to go rogue too. (The Sanders voter was the Hawaiian.)

The last time this many people showed up in the Electoral College results was 1796, and that was back when presidential and vice-presidential candidates were selected from the same vote.

Clinton would have had an even lower total if three states hadn’t reeled in their rebels. A Democratic elector in Maine initially voted for Sanders, but his ballot was ruled improper so he changed his choice. An elector in Minnesota tried to back Sanders too, but the authorities replaced him with a pro-Clinton alternate. And a Colorado elector tried to vote for Kasich, but he was bumped by an alternate as well. In Texas, meanwhile, one elector resigned rather than vote for Trump. There too, a substitute was found.

A seven-vote switch might seem anticlimactic after all the hype around the “Hamilton electors,” a group with big plans to organize a mass insurgency, throw the election into the House, and deny Donald Trump the presidency. But that scenario was always extremely unlikely, and you shouldn’t let it distract you from how unusual these results are. While it’s not exactly uncommon to see an elector vote for someone other than the presidential candidate to whom he is pledged, this is the first time since the 19th century that more than one elector has done that in the same election. And the first time since the 18th century that this many people got electoral votes.

It was a fitting end for a campaign where the two-party façade couldn’t conceal the thirst for more choices. In a year where both major parties picked their least popular nominees in recent memory, third-party and independent candidates had their strongest showing in 20 years. Even the write-ins did better than usual: Sanders, who wasn’t running, picked up nearly 6 percent of the popular vote in Vermont. And now the Electoral College has allowed Sanders, Ron Paul, John Kasich, Colin Powell, and Faith Spotted Eagle onto the scoreboard. Call it the long-tail election: Again and again this year, Americans looked at the choices before them and said I’d prefer something else.

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Trump’s Oil Price Dilemma

Submitted by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

President-elect Donald Trump has started naming his picks for key administration offices, and it looks like he is beginning to assemble a team to deliver on at least part of his campaign promises of An America First Energy Plan.

Trump’s agenda includes lifting restrictions and opening onshore and offshore leasing on federal lands, eliminating the moratorium on coal leasing, and opening shale energy deposits. The President-elect’s key arguments for these policies are creating high-paying jobs, lessening and even eliminating America’s energy dependence, increasing tax revenues, and adding billions of dollars in economic activity.

Even if Trump were to deliver on all his pledges – as far as federal law and federal regulations are concerned – the U.S. oil production would be driven by the market—the economics of the supply and demand that determine the prices of oil.

At the time of Trump’s inauguration on January 20, OPEC and a dozen non-OPEC nations are set to begin to reduce crude oil supply with the purpose of killing the global glut and lifting oil prices. Ideally, OPEC/NOPEC taking 1.8 million bpd off the market would speed up the drawdown in global stockpiles and prop up prices.

In reality, few expect OPEC to stick to its commitments and cut as much as promised.

Still, oil prices are now north of US$50, and OPEC (even if some members cheat) may be able to talk prices up a month or so more. American production has been suffering the consequences of the two-year oil price rout, but if oil stays over US$50 for longer, it would entice more U.S. producers to return to work. Oil prices at US$60 or more would lead to even more confidence among U.S. producers—producers who are now ‘leaner and meaner’ and carefully choosing how to invest.

Essentially, Trump’s vision that the oil and natural gas industry could lead to the creation of “another 400,000 new jobs per year” depends on a resurgence in U.S. production, based on higher oil prices. And oil and gas companies in a recovering market may really need to add more jobs after having cut thousands of jobs over the past two years.

In the short term, it will be oil prices that would swing American production, not Trump’s pledge to lift restrictions on federal land. According to the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), the average approval timeframe for an application for permit to drill (APD) between 2005 and 2015 was somewhere around 200 days. The average number of days in which operators resolve any deficiencies has been higher than the number of days the BLM needs to process and complete an APD in every year since 2005 except in 2006 and 2008.

Trump’s promised rise of oil and gas production over the years could have several consequences: kill the oil price increase due to more supply available, lessen America’s dependence on foreign oil (especially OPEC oil as pledged by the President-elect), and increase U.S. exports of LNG and oil.

Increased U.S. production would be good for the oil and gas industry, and would create jobs not only in the sector but also in other industries and in all economic activity in areas close to energy producing sites.

Following the nomination of former Texas Governor Rick Perry as Secretary of Energy, American Petroleum Institute (API) president and CEO Jack Gerard “called on the nominee to make LNG exports a top priority at the Department of Energy,” the API said in a statement on Wednesday.

As for exports, Trump’s Administration may need to strike a delicate balance between increasing LNG exports and keeping enough cheap gas at home to avert price shocks for consumers.

What’s certain is that the oil and gas industry would curry more favor with the new Administration as opposed to the existing one, but any U.S. shale rebound is largely dependent on how oil prices fare, and how companies respond to those price increases.

via http://ift.tt/2hBJlmN Tyler Durden

Obama Vows To Use Retirement To Become “Recruiting Scout” For Young Democratic Talent

Much time and effort have been spent speculating over what Barack and Michelle will do in retirement.  A few weeks ago, we noted one theory that Obama was plotting the launch of his very own “fake news” media empire (see “Obama TV: Is Obama Planning A “Fake News” Outlet Of His Own?“).  Despite ruling it out several times, many have also wondered whether Michelle will follow in Hillary’s footsteps and run for public office.  Or, perhaps they will just take the easy way out and start a “charity” that they use as front to personally enrich themselves with massive donations from Wall Street and controversial foreign dictators.

While you can never rule any of the options above out, President Obama told NPR that he’ll spend his time in retirement trying to “rehabilitate” the Democratic Party by becoming a “recruiting scout” for young talent. 

President Obama sees a role for himself in rebuilding the Democratic Party after he leaves office — coach.

 

“What I am interested in is just developing a whole new generation of talent,” Obama told NPR’s Steve Inskeep in an interview on Morning Edition.

 

“There are such incredible young people who not only worked on my campaign, but I’ve seen in advocacy groups,” Obama said. “I’ve seen passionate about issues like climate change, or conservation, criminal justice reform. You know, campaigns to — for a livable wage, or health insurance. And making sure that whatever resources, credibility, spotlight that I can bring to help them rise up. That’s something that I think I can do well, I think Michelle can do well.”

 

Of course, as NPR points out, Democrats will have their work cut out for them after two cycles of devastating defeats that have left Republicans with majorities in the House and Senate, 33 out of 50 governor seats and complete control of governors’ offices and state legislatures in 25 states compared to only 6 states for democrats. 

They’ll have their work cut out for them. Republicans will control the House, Senate and White House when President-elect Donald Trump is sworn in Jan. 20. That’s a reversal of the situation Obama found himself in when he took office eight years ago — the peak of massive Democratic electoral gains at the end of the Bush administration.

 

And on the state level, Republicans head into 2017 with 33 out of 50 governors — more than in nearly 100 years. The GOP will have complete control of the governors’ offices and state legislatures in 25 states, while Democrats will hold complete control in just six states. Republicans solidified gains that started in 2010 by drawing favorable congressional and statehouse districts in many states during the redistricting process.

 

Democrats find themselves in a deep hole after an election that most party officials expected to win.

Meanwhile, echoing comments he’s made before, Obama noted that the 2016 election wasn’t a rejection of failed Democratic policies…

Obama told NPR that he disagreed with suggestions the party should change its policy platforms, instead attributing losses to messaging and strategy.

 

“I don’t think there’s something wrong with the core argument that the Democratic Party has made for years,” the president said. “And the reason we know that is because on the individual issues that Democrats talk about there’s strong support. For example, the minimum wage. In every survey across the country, people support a higher minimum wage. There are clearly, though, failures on our part to give people in rural areas or in ex-urban areas, a sense day-to-day that we’re fighting for them or connected to them.”

 

The president said his party has “ceded too much territory” to Republicans in local races. “I am a proud Democrat,” he said, “but I do think that we have a bias towards national issues and international issues.”

…but rather, a failure of Hillary to visit a sufficient number of “VFW halls and at fish fries” in the Midwest.

As he’s done before, though, Obama also faulted Democrats for failing to compete — or even show up, at times — in rural areas. He talked about campaigning in rural Illinois while running for Senate and making repeated visits to Republican-friendly corners of Iowa during the 2008 campaign, “and just sitting down in people’s living rooms and VFW halls and at fish fries and listening to people.”

 

“Which meant that in 2012,” the president continued, “I might still lose the overall vote and some of these counties or some of these voting districts but I might lose 55-45 or 60-40, rather than 80-20.”

We wish Mr. Obama the very best in finding new Democratic “talent” willing to peddle all the same policies adopted by he and Hillary over the past 8 years but roundly rejected by voters just over a month ago…we hope his efforts serve the democratic party well.

via http://ift.tt/2hknWMc Tyler Durden