Fed Holds, Hints December Hike With Warning Of Higher Inflation; No Mention Of Election; 2 Dissent

While the dollar is up, every other asset class is lower since the September FOMC statement ahead of the least-anticipated Fed meeting of the year. Fed funds implied a 14% chance of a rate hike today but sentiment was for a 0% chance with expectations of a hawkish-biased statement (67% prob of Dec hike). From Bloomberg:

  • *FED DECIDED TO WAIT FOR TIME BEING FOR SOME FURTHER EVIDENCE
  • *FED SAYS CASE FOR A RATE HIKE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN
  • *FED SAYS GEORGE AND MESTER DISSENT IN FAVOR OF RATE HIKE

With no press conference to explain the latest phrasing, we can only assume the jawboning and newspeak will be heavy to covince the world December will be a "dovish hike."

Notably, while in the September meeting there were 3 disenters, George, Mester and Rosengren, this time Rosengren decided to join the majority, leaving just two dissenters.

While the statement itself contained 7 fewer words than in September, there were virtually no changes. Perhaps the most notable change in the wording of the statement is that the following phrase was struck out:

"Inflation is expected to remain low for the near term"

and replaced with

"Inflation is expected to rise to 2 percent over the medium term"

The Fed also changed the language to the phrase that "Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low" and replaced it with "…have moved up but remain low."

The one negative is that the degree of spending was downgraded as "Household spending has been growing strongly" has been changed to "rising moderately."

The FOMC also said that "The Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to strengthen" strongly hinting that a December hike is now almost inevitable absent a market crash.

Also of note, as Bloomberg reminds us, remember when June was a good deal about Brexit? There is no mention of uncertainty related to the U.S. election, as expected. The FOMC message is the committee makes its decisions with no notice of politics.

* * *

As Bloomberg noted perfectly, the big challenge for The Fed "is to reinforce expectations for December without appearing to tilt toward a more hawkish approach next year." In other words, convince the world this will be a dovish hike.

*  *  *

Today's tumble in crude pushed everything red post-FOMC (with a notably uniform 1.7%-ish drop in assets oddly mirroring a 1.7%-sh rise in the US dollar)

 

As The Dollar and rate hike odds have moved almost perfectly in sync…

 

*  *  *

Additional headlines:

  • *FED DROPS REFERENCE TO SEEING INFLATION STAYING LOW NEAR TERM
  • *FED REPEATS RISKS TO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK `APPEAR ROUGHLY BALANCED'
  • *FED: HOUSEHOLD SPENDING `RISING MODERATELY,' INVESTMENT SOFT
  • *FED: JOB GAINS HAVE BEEN SOLID, GROWTH PICKED UP SINCE MID-YR

Which is not true… The Fed's own labor market indicator is now in contraction YoY:

*  *  *

Full redline below:

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Could the Markets Crash Right Here and Now?

The market is flashing MAJOR red flags.

The S&P 500 has taken out critical support (red line). It has also taken out its bull market trendline from the February lows.

The same is true for high yield bonds (HYG)

As well as the beloved FANG stocks, most notably AMZN which has lead the market to the upside.

And as earnings have shown… it’s a LONG ways down.

Another Crisis is brewing… the time to prepare is now.

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Hillary Camp In “Full Panic Mode” As Early Black Voter Turnout Plunges In Key Swing States

A few weeks ago we pointed out that Obama enjoyed massive, unprecedented spikes in black voter turnout in both the 2008 and 2012 elections.  After hovering around 50-55% for decades, black voter participation soared to over 60% in 2008 and 2012.  That said, in the past we’ve raised serious doubts over whether Hillary should expect the same level of enthusiasm from black voters in this election cycle or whether overall turnout of black voters would revert back to pre-Obama levels.

Unprecedented black voter turnout was a huge component of Obama’s victories in 2008 and 2012.  Per the chart below from the New York Times, after running in the low-to-mid 50% range for decades, black voter participation surged to over 60% for Obama in 2008 and 2012, the highest ever recorded.

 

So, the question is, should Hillary expect the same level of unprecedented black voter turnout that Obama was able to garner?  Apparently, her campaign is not convinced and that’s why, according to Leslie Wimes, President of the Democratic African-American Women Caucus, they’re in “full panic mode.”

Black Voter Turnout

 

Well, early voting data out of some key swing states seems to reveal that, in fact, black voter turnout is reverting back to pre-Obama levels, which is a terrible sign for team Hillary.  According to Old North State Politics, early voting data out of North Carolina suggests that black voter turnout is down roughly 7 points, as a percent of the overall electorate versus 2012, implying that cumulative black votes are down around 16%. 

North Carolina Black Voters

 

As a reminder, Mitt Romney won North Carolina in 2012 by slightly over 2 points.  Given that black voters usually favor democrats by 80-90%, simple math implies that a 7-point reduction in blacks as a percentage of the overall electorate would hurt Hillary by roughly 6 points versus the 2012 results….not encouraging to say the least.

North Carolina Black Voters

 

Meanwhile, the outlook is even more troubling in Florida as black composition of early votes is down 9.5 points versus 2012. 

Black Voters Florida

According to a recent article by Politico, in 2008 and 2012, Obama received 95% of the 1.7mm votes cast by black voters in Florida.  Given that, simple math would imply that a 9.5-point reduction in blacks as a percentage of the overall electorate would hurt Hillary by roughly 9 points, versus the 2012 results, which is disastrous news for a state that Obama narrowly won by less than 1 point. 

Unfortunately for Hillary, a recent poll from Florida Atlantic University provides even more bad news.  While Obama received 95% of the black vote in Florida in 2012, Hillary is only polling at 68% among black voters while Trump is polling at 20%.  And, at least according to the president of the Democratic African-American Women Caucus, this math has the Clinton campaign in “full panic mode.”  Per Politico:

Hillary Clinton’s campaign is in panic mode. Full panic mode,” said Leslie Wimes, a South Florida-based president of the Democratic African-American Women Caucus.

 

“They have a big problem because they thought Obama and Michelle saying, ‘Hey, go vote for Hillary’ would do it. But it’s not enough,” Wimes said, explaining that too much of the black vote in Florida is anti-Trump, rather than pro-Clinton. “In the end, we don’t vote against somebody. We vote for somebody.”

But, we won’t hold our breath until the various polls around the country adjust their “ethnic oversamples” accordingly.

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91% Of All Paddy Power Bets In Past Two Days Have Been For Trump

Recall that in the days leading to the Brexit vote, one of the most closely followed indicators of public sentiment was online bookmaker betting, where in a curious split, the majority of smaller wages was for Brexit, however the total amount better was skewed by a handful of far bigger bets on “remain.” However, when it comes to Trump, there appears to be confusion – or interference – at least in the last several days. According to a recent Paddy Power tweet, on Monday and Tuesday the Republican candidate outshone his rival in terms of both the number and the volume of wagers, as just shy of 100,000 euros ($111,000) in bets came in, with 91 percent of that for Trump.

Cited by Bloomberg, Féilim Mac An Iomaire, a spokesman for the company, confirmed the report saying that “this election’s been a serious betting anomaly. Even before October 28, when FBI Director Jack Comey announced the discovery of new e-mails potentially related to a probe that has troubled the Clinton campaign, money placed on a Trump victory amounted to almost the same as that bet on his rival, despite her lead in opinion polls.

“You don’t normally see so much placed on the outside candidate but I think the shock of Brexit is fresh in people’s minds,” Mac An Iomaire said.

In an attempt to talk down the potential significance of the recent surge in online betting for Trump, Bloomberg notes that “U.K.’s June referendum bruised professional pollsters by dealing an unexpected blow to the status quo. Yet another lesson of that vote is that betting flows are not a foolproof indicator, with bookies reporting a surge in bets that the U.K. electorate would choose to remain in the European Union on the morning of the vote. The next day, the “Leave” camp emerged triumphant.” What it ignores, and what we pointed out repeatedly over the summer, is that the vast majority of bets pre-Brexit were for Brexit, however in what some have said was a deliberate attempt to skew the result, a few prominent, large betters were shifting the odds in Remain’s favor. They were wrong.

Indeed, the recent Trump wave is confirmed by various market indicators with the Mexican peso, Credit Suisse AG’s “ultimate market indicator,” weakening more than 3 percent since Comey’s letter, as Trump’s improving prospects jolt the currency.

Still, the probability of a Trump victory implied by offshore bookmakers’ odds are now at 28.5%, according to Convergex market strategist Nicholas Colas. That’s roughly the same as flipping a coin and getting heads twice in a row, and matches estimates by professional polling analysts. 

For Paddy Power, which reports third-quarter earnings on Friday, the stakes are higher than most. As we reported previously, on October 18 Paddy Power announced it would start paying out on a Clinton victory, having initially offered a Donald Trump presidency at 100/1. Should Trump win, the outcome may be yet another bankruptcy, only this time it won’t involve a Trump casino.

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The BBC Asks – What Really Happened With the Clintons in Haiti?

screen-shot-2016-11-02-at-11-11-16-am

When it comes to the Clintons, where there’s smoke, there’s usually a structure fire. I doubt Haiti is any different.

With that in mind, I wanted to flag an article published earlier today at the BBCWhat really happened with the Clintons in Haiti?

Here are some excerpts:

Donald Trump has said the work of Bill and Hillary Clinton in Haiti was a “disgrace”. What really happened?

“The Clinton family, they are crooks, they are thieves, they are liars,” says Haitian activist Dahoud Andre.

continue reading

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Philippines’ Duterte Rails Against “Son Of A Bitch” American “Monkeys” After Arms Shipment Halted

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, who promised last week to stop cursing after a personal chat with god, once again slammed the United States on Wednesday for halting the planned sale of 26,000 rifles to his country, calling those behind the decision “fools” and “monkeys” and indicating he might turn to Russia and China instead. Duterte’s tirades against the US have become a virtiually daily event, and on Wednesday he said that he once believed in Washington, but had since lost respect for what is the Philippines’ biggest ally, Reuters reported.

Which is why the US decision to halt an arms shipment to Duterte should probably not come as a major shock: the State Department halted the sale of the assault rifles to the Philippine police after U.S. Senator Ben Cardin said he would oppose it, Senate aides told Reuters on Monday. Aides said Cardin, the top Democrat on the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, was reluctant for the United States to provide the weapons given concern about human rights violations in the Philippines during Duterte’s bloody, four-month-old war on drugs.

The news prompted the following outburst: “Look at these monkeys, the 26,000 firearms we wanted to buy, they don’t want to sell,” Duterte said during a televised speech. “Son of a bitch, we have many home-made guns here. These American fools.”

Why the renewed anger? “That’s why I was rude at them, because they were rude at me,” he said.

According to procedures in Washington, the State Department informs Congress when international weapons sales are in the works. Aides said the State Department had been informed Cardin would oppose the deal during the prenotification process, thus halting the sale. U.S. State Department officials did not comment.

Meanwhile, the local authorities appeared displeased with their leaders’ relentless verbal diarrhea: the Philippine police chief, Ronald dela Rosa, on Tuesday expressed disappointment that police would not get the M4 rifles, which he said were reliable.

Duterte reiterated that Russia and China had shown willingness to sell arms to the Philippines, but he would wait to see if his military wanted to continue using U.S. weapons.

Alternatively, it is possible that all the State Department has avhieved, is to hand over a brand new client to China and/or Russia: “Russia, they are inviting us. China also. China is open, anything you want, they sent me brochure saying we select there, we’ll give you. “But I am holding off because I was asking the military if they have any problem. Because if you have, if you want to stick to America, fine.

“But, look closely and balance the situation, they are rude to us.”

Of course, the real question is whether Duterte wants to “stick to America”, because for all his talk, the new president still appears uncertain he will succeed in cutting off all ties with Washington. Which means that the ultimate decision to sever ties may have to come from the US, which may just snap as a result of the relntless mockery.

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With Only Six Days Remaining, Trump Surges in the Polls as Hillary Supporters Abandon Ship

 

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With Only Six Days Remaining, Trump Surges in the Polls as Hillary Supporters Abandon Ship


 

 

This is simply not good for Hillary. With only six days remaining in this critical election, possibly the most important in modern times, Hillary is witnessing a complete and utter collapse in her support.

 

 

She was witnessed this historic collapse due to the FBI bombshell that has rocked the world, making her the first ever Presidential candidate to be under active investigation by the FBI, WHILE running for the highest seat of power in the country.

 

 

 

 

As the above LA Times poll shows, Trump now has a monstrous 5.4% lead. His supporters are growing on a daily basis, as he continues to attract African-American supporters and Democrats in record-breaking numbers for a Republican candidate.

 

 

In addition to this, the polls may be horribly off, as Trump has what many are calling the “monster vote” waiting in the wings. This is in reference to the stunning amount of previously unregistered voters who have never voted in their life but plan on showing up to the polls to support Donald Trump, as internal polling is showing.

 

 

Further supporting how strong his momentum is across all categories is the fact that Donald Trump now has the majority of support across ALL age categories. A huge development, considering that he has been struggling with young voters throughout much of his campaign.

 

 

I am sure that Hillary, who has in the past few days been seen screaming at protesters angrily, will be scrambling to drop another “bombshell” on Trump with only a few days remaining. Whether or not the story is true or not doesn’t matter to her.

 

 

Luckily, people are waking up in numbers I’ve never before seen. The dishonest media have egg on their faces and they have destroyed their credibility in supporting Hillary throughout her many scandals that have surfaced throughout this election cycle. People aren’t stupid and are furious over this, cancelling their cable subscriptions and turning off the boob tube.

 

 

The time for change is here – the time for real change is now. First, there was Brexit, then there was Trump. What next will the liberty movement bring? We truly do live in exciting times.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Please email with any questions about this article or precious metals HERE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

With Only Six Days Remaining, Trump Surges in the Polls as Hillary Supporters Abandon Ship

Written by Nathan McDonald 

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Large Democratic Donor At NYC Fundraiser: Blacks Are “Seriously F***ed in The Head”

In the latest bombshell Project Veritas video, a large Democratic donor, Benjamin Barber, is caught on film at a fundraiser comparing black republican voters to Nazis and saying they’re “fucked in the head.”  The disparaging comments came at a New York City fundraiser for Deborah Ross who is running for the U.S. Senate for the state of North Carolina.

“Have you heard of the Sonderkommandos? Jewish guards who helped murder Jews in the camps. So there were even Jews that were helping the Nazis murder Jews! So blacks who are helping the other side are seriously fucked in the head. They’re only helping the enemy who will destroy them. Maybe they think ‘if I help them we’ll get along okay; somehow I’ll save my race by working with the murderers.’”

 

Deborah Ross, the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate from North Carolina, is running against Republican incumbent Richard Burr.  Ross also makes a cameo in the latest Project Veritas video citing the recurring Democratic narrative that all Republicans are racists who try to use voter ID laws to suppress minority votes.

“Republicans know that young people, African Americans and women are less likely to have the ID, so they won’t vote.  It’s Jim Crow.  Just put the road block in…”

Ross

 

And now the Russians are reprogramming the minds of large Democratic donors…will they stop at nothing?

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San Diego Police Seize Family’s Bank Accounts Because the Dad Ran a Medical Marijuana Business

James Slatic, a California medical marijuana business owner, found out all his family’s bank accounts had been seized by the government one day in January when his 19-year-old daughter tried to buy lunch at the San Jose State University cafeteria and her card was declined.

Slatic’s wife tried to transfer money to their daughter, figuring she had simply overdrawn her account, as teenagers are wont to do, but her account wouldn’t work, either. What the Slatics soon learned was the San Diego police had frozen all of their bank accounts: $55,258 from Slatic’s personal checking and savings account; $34,175 from his wife Annette’s account; and a combined $11,260 from the savings accounts of their two teenage daughters, Penny and Lily.

“Just imagine what it’s like when you’re a 57-year-old business man with three kids and a house, and supporting elderly parents, and all the sudden all your money is gone,” Slatic says in an interview with Reason. “It’s disappeared. Your car payment bounces, your insurance doesn’t go through.”

The Slatics’ crimes? None. Or at least, the San Diego District Attorney’s Office hasn’t charged them with any in the nine months since it seized their accounts.

On Tuesday the Institute for Justice, a libertarian-leaning public interest law firm, filed a motion in California district court seeking the return of roughly $100,000 of the Slatic family’s money. The Institute for Justice argues the seizure was a brazen and illegal use of civil asset forfeiture, a practice that allows police to seize property they suspect is connected to a crime. The owner often does not have to be convicted or even charged with a crime.

“I’ve not come across an abusive civil forfeiture this shocking,” says Wesley Hottot, an attorney for the Institute for Justice. “We decided to become involved because his family’s plight illustrates the power of civil forfeiture. Even when you’ve got rules in place, like in California, to protect property owners, police can still seize virtually everything you own based on one officer’s suspicion.”

Law enforcement groups say asset forfeiture is a vital tool to disrupt drug traffickers by cutting off their ill-gotten proceeds, but civil liberties groups argue the perverse profit incentives lead police to target everyday citizens, who then must prove their innocence to get their own property back.

The trouble for James Slatic began five days before his family’s accounts were frozen, when around 30 San Diego police officers and DEA agents raided Slatic’s medical marijuana business, Med-West Distribution, and seized nearly $325,000 in cash from a safe.

Slatic says he worked with the city to obtain all the necessary permits for his business, which refined marijuana oils for use in vaporizers and topical ointments. He is also politically involved in California’s marijuana regulations and served on the boards of the Marijuana Policy Project and the California Cannabis Industry Association

“I had heard of [asset forfeiture] before but naively thought it was for people who don’t pay their taxes or some other tawdry thing, not people who create jobs and pay taxes and are involved in the political process,” Slatic says. “I didn’t consider myself to be a potential target, but I was wrong.”

Surveillance video shows the heavily armed law enforcement officers breaching the door and detaining Med-West employees at gunpoint.

The raid was a crushing blow to Slatic—not to mention his 35 employees, who lost their jobs and benefits without notice—but he never thought the police would go after his family’s money as well. Slatic says they’ve been relying on help from family and friends, credit cards, as well as an online fundraising campaign, although that hasn’t made much a dent in the roughly $70,000 in legal fees he’s accrued so far.

The Institute for Justice argues there was no probable cause to raid Med-West. According to the warrant, law enforcement suspected Med-West was illegally producing hash oil and violating a California statute that bans the chemical extraction of controlled substances. The problem, Slatic and the Institute for Justice argue, is that Med-West only refined THC oil, not extracted it, using laboratory equipment—a far cry from a clandestine, combustible drug lab.

Likewise, the Institute for Justice says there is no traceable line between the alleged criminal activity and the personal bank accounts of Slatic’s wife and daughter.

“You have to directly tie every dollar to a particularized allegation, and they’ve done none of that,” Hottot said. “It’s as if they think they have a blank check to take everything from a legal medical marijuana business owner’s family. Even if we were to accept that the District Attorney has a legitimate investigation, they still don’t have reason to take everything from this family and leave them nothing.”

In a statement, a spokesperson for the San Diego District Attorney’s Office says “the investigation related to this DEA task force raid is ongoing and the case remains under review for potential criminal charges.”

“In addition, the primary mission of the asset forfeiture program is to enhance public safety by removing the proceeds of crime and other assets relied upon by criminals to perpetuate their criminal activity,” the spokesperson continues. “When it comes to spending the funds, we’re obligated to follow nationwide policies, procedures and guidelines set up by the Department of Justice.”

San Diego District Attorney Bonnie Dumanis and the city have been particularly aggressive in policing medical marijuana businesses.

Although the police were working as part of a Drug Enforcement Administration task force, federal prosecutors were blocked from going after Slatic by legislation, authored by California GOP Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, that restricts Justice Department funds from being used to prosecuting people who are in compliance with state medical marijuana laws.

“Asset forfeiture is and of itself theft and is a crime against ordinary people by their own government,” Rohrabacher says in an interview with Reason.

“My bill wouldn’t cover what happened in San Diego unless it’s dealing with a federal agency,” Rohrabacher continued. “But the fact is in California people voted to make medical marijuana legal a long time ago. On the face of it, this seems to be contrary to the wishes of the people, and it’s time that law enforcement wakes up and realizes they can’t get away with this anymore.”

Earlier this year, the California legislature also passed an asset forfeiture reform bill that requires a criminal conviction for prosecutors to seize under $40,000 from someone, which would have protected Slatic’s wife and daughters from having their bank accounts frozen. The law goes into effect in January.

As it so happens, Slatic worked to get that legislation passed. He says the $40,000 cap was added to the bill at the last minute at the insistence of law enforcement groups, who said it was needed to preserve their abilities to go after cartels and large criminal organizations.

Now, even if the law applies retroactively, it won’t protect Slatic.

“We either capped it or weren’t going to get passage, so we took it,” Slatic says. “It was better than nothing, but once again [law enforcement] kept their hand in the cookie jar. It has nothing to do with cartels, it just gave them the ability to go after bigger companies like mine.”

California vote on a ballot initiative next week that would make recreational marijuana legal in the state.

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