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We earlier showed the close-up-and-personal images from the bombing raids between Hamas/ISIS/Al-Qaeda and Israel; but the following clip (which we still have not heard the final conclusion of) shows just how much of a ‘surprise’ these shellings can be… as a reporter is hit by a shell live on air.

The correspondent, wearing a “Press” jacket, is allegedly reporting from Gaza.

 

After being hit, he falls down out of view of the camera, and is heard screaming.

 

 

Source: Al Arabiya

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One has to give it to Goldman Sachs: the bank which until a few years ago just couldn't lose a penny, is about to report earnings which will, even if they beat Wall Street's estimate, be an embarrassment to the bank that openly used to run the world until very recently. The reason, aside from the moribund economy, is that trading volumes have plummeted at an unprecedented pace as i) nobody trusts the centrally-planned capital markets any more and ii) valuations are, despite what permbulls can say on TV stations with record low viewership, so ridiculous few if any would actually go long here.

But the one area what Goldman has retained its swagger is its muppet-crushing talents. Because while Tom Stolper may have left the bank, much to the sorrow of FX traders everywhere, the bank is still second to none when it comes up to fabricating ridiculous narratives that are simply meant to baffle with bullshit what few clients Goldman has remaining, and hopefully, Corzine their money in the process.

Case in point: while Jan Hatzius once again declared the arrival of the above-trend growth for the US economy just as everyone else slashed their GDP forecasts for the year (it won't be the first time – he did the same just after Tim Geithner's idiotic "Welcome to the Recovery" oped, which lasted all of 3 months before Goldman recanted), Goldman lowered its year-end yield forecast by 25 bps to 3.0%. So…. a stronger economy that is getting weaker on a terminal basis? Brilliant.

But that's nothing. One has to read today's piece from Goldman's David Kostin to realize just how ridiculous Goldman's attempts to spin what has become a total farcial fraud of a market (just one word here: CYNK), and a completely broken economy (remember the business cycle and recessions in the day before ZIRP and QE? good times…) to realize just how far beyond the pale everything is.

Recall that it was David Kostin who in January admitted that "The S&P500 Is Now Overvalued By Almost Any Measure." It was then when the Goldman chief strategist admitted there was only 3% upside to the bank's year end target of 1900.  Well, that hasn't changed. In his latest note Kostin says that "S&P 500 now trades at 16.1x forward 12-month consensus EPS and 16.5x our top-down forecast… the only time S&P 500 traded at a higher multiple than today was during the 1997-2000 Tech bubble when margins were 25% (250 bp) lower than today. S&P 500 also trades at high EV/sales and EV/EBITDA multiples relative to history. The cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio suggests S&P 500 is now 30%-45% overvalued compared with the average since 1928."

In other words, rarely has the market been more overvalued. So at least that much of the Goldman plotline is still valid.

Furthermore, as Kostin says, "Goldman Sachs fixed-income strategists recently lowered their year-end 2014 bond yield forecast by 25 bp to 3.0%." One doesn't have to be a rocket scientist to know that yield forecasts don't go down when the economic forecast is improving. Quite the contrary. And here is where the first break in logic appears: "The improving macro data prompted our US economists to pull forward their projection for the first hike in the federal funds rate to 3Q 2015 from 1Q 2016." Yes, apparently it also prompted them to cut their 10 Year yield forecasts.

But where everything just goes full retard is here: "we lift our year-end 2014 S&P 500 price target to 2050 (from 1900) and 12-month target to 2075, reflecting prospective returns of 4% and 6%, respectively."

Wait, what???

So Goldman admits the market is up to 45% overvalued and that the economy is slowing down, thus cutting its yield expectations, and this leads to a… 150 boost in the firm's S&P500 year end target?

Clearly, this is idiocy. What's worse, is that this is merely goalseeked idiocy as Goldman realizes none of its valuation metrivs matter in a broken, centrally-planned market and all that matters is the endless liquidity infusion from the central bank cartel. But what is worst, is that Goldman is fully aware this kind of "forecast" will merely lead to riotous laughter with any of the "smart money." Thus the fact that Goldman Sachs no longer cares about that reaction, and thus, its reputation, is the most troubling of all…

Here is the weekend humor from David Kostin. First, the summary:

US equities soared 42% during the past 18 months but the stellar return borrowed heavily from the future. History shows S&P 500 rallies and the P/E multiple expands during the year prior to the start of a tightening cycle. But after tightening begins, the multiple contracts and the index typically delivers only modest returns. Incorporating our lower 10-year US Treasury yield forecast with other valuation approaches, we lift our year-end 2014 S&P 500 price target to 2050 (from 1900) and 12-month target to 2075, reflecting prospective returns of 4% and 6%, respectively. Our year-end 2015 and 2016 targets remain unchanged at 2100 and 2200.

And the full breakdown in which one can almost feel Kostin's humiliation at having to pen such moronic drivel.

The bulk of the 7% S&P 500 YTD return stems from earnings growth. Multiple expansion has contributed only a small share of the 2014 return. In contrast, P/E expansion powered nearly three-quarters of the full-year 2013 return of 32% while EPS growth generated a small share of the price gain.

 

Looking ahead, our top-down EPS estimates of $116 in 2014 and $125 in 2015 represent annual growth of 8%. Bottom-up consensus EPS growth is exactly in-line with our 2014 forecast. However, analysts expect 12% growth in 2015, which is 400 bp above our expectation.

 

S&P 500 now trades at 16.1x forward 12-month consensus EPS and 16.5x our top-down forecast. Note the current high P/E multiple coincides with record high profit margins that have remained static near 8.9% since 2011. In fact, the only time S&P 500 traded at a higher multiple than today was during the 1997-2000 Tech bubble when margins were 25% (250 bp) lower than today. S&P 500 also trades at high EV/sales and EV/EBITDA multiples relative to history. The cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio suggests S&P 500 is now 30%-45% overvalued compared with the average since 1928.

 

However, viewed in relation to bond yields, the US equity market still  appears attractively valued. The classic interpretation of the Fed model closes the gap between the forward earnings yield and bond yield to the long-term average spread. Goldman Sachs fixed-income strategists recently lowered their year-end 2014 bond yield forecast by 25 bp to 3.0%. If the yield gap converges from the current 370 bp to 300 bp by year-end 2014 (midpoint between the trailing 10- and 20-year averages) the Fed Model would imply a year-end 2014 S&P 500 fair-value of 2080, roughly 5% above the current level. It also implies a stable P/E multiple of 16.0x (see Exhibit 1).

 

Oh, the Fed model… Right. The same "model" which says that if there is a deflationary collapse, and 10 Years trade negative, then S&P should hit +infinity. No really. Look at the bottom left square: apparently all it takes for the S&P500 to hit 3,560 is for the 10 Year to trade at 2.0%. One can't make this up!

Incorporating our lower 10-year US Treasury yield forecast with other valuation approaches, we lift our year-end 2014 S&P 500 price target to 2050 (from 1900) and 12-month target to 2075 reflecting prospective price returns of 4% and 6%, respectively. Our year-end 2015 and 2016 targets remain unchanged at 2100 and 2200, respectively.

 

US equities soared 42% during the past 18 months but the stellar return borrowed heavily from the future. We expect the equity rally will continue, but the trajectory will be shallow. Domestic economic growth is accelerating, and earnings will continue to rise, but further P/E multiple expansion is unlikely given our and the market’s expectation for a Fed hike within 12 months. The improving macro data prompted our US economists to pull forward their projection for the first hike in the federal funds rate to 3Q 2015 from 1Q 2016 (see US Views: An Earlier Hike, July 6, 2014).

 

History shows the S&P 500 rallies and the P/E expands during the year prior to the start of a tightening cycle. But after tightening begins, the P/E multiple contracts and the index typically delivers only modest returns.

 

Our forecast S&P 500 next-12-month return of 6% is similar to the historical example leading up to previous “first hikes.” S&P 500 posted an average return of 17% during the 12 months prior to the three previous Fed hikes in 1994, 1999, and 2004. Excluding Tech, the average return was 12% and the median S&P 500 stock rose by 13% (see Exhibits 2 and 3).

 

Historical experience supports cyclical sector positioning. Information Technology is the only sector that outperformed the S&P 500 in advance of each of the three recent tightening cycles, although its historical average return is inflated because the second episode coincided with the Tech bubble. Materials and Industrials outperformed preceding two of the three examined hikes, while defensive Health Care, Consumer Staples and Utilities sectors underperformed in all three episodes. Consumer Discretionary historically has not posted strong returns prior to hikes but we expect the sector will outperform this time as the labor market continues to improve.

It wouldn't be Goldman, of course, if the firm's clients didn't lose money. So putting all of Kostin's brilliance to the P&L, led to this:

We close our recommendation to buy Russell 1000 Growth vs. Value.  The trade returned 300 bp from initiation in November 2013 through February 2014, but suffered as investors fled high growth and momentum stocks in late 1Q. In total the trade returned -50 bp (11.6% vs. 12.1%). Growth stocks typically outperform when economic growth slows, which is contrary to our expectation in 2H 2014. Our Growth factor has also posted unremarkable returns prior to the start of previous rate hiking cycles.

So a loss. But don't Goldman has another reco. Buy crap. Seriously.

We expect “low valuation” stocks will outperform ahead of next year’s tightening. Exhibit 5 lists the 50 S&P 500 firms across all ten sectors with the lowest valuation. “Low quality” stocks should also outperform as the economy improves. Our Micro Equity Factors indicate stocks with weak balance sheets, low returns on capital, low margins, and high volatility have outpaced their “high quality” peers since early 2013. In 2H 2014, we recommend investors buy a portfolio of S&P 500 stocks with weak balance sheets (Bloomberg: GSTHWBAL Index) vs. strong balance sheet peers (GSTHSBAL). The long/short strategy generated a 50% return during the past 24 months. We recently rebalanced both of these sector-neutral 50-stock baskets (see US Weekly Kickstart, May 16, 2014).

Which is ironic, because that is precisely the trade we said to put on…  about 24 months ago when we said the only way to make money in this farce of a market was to go long the most worthless names. Thanks Goldman for finally catching up to us.

And to think people accuse us of being permabearish.

In sum, after reading such garbage, it is impossible not to feel bad for Wall Street's best paid "strategists" (and certainly those working for the bank that formerly controlled the world): if they have to resort to writing such bullshit, then the end must truly be nigh.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1zwTL8J Tyler Durden

Submitted by Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics,

Part of our job is monitoring everything everywhere. We are gathering data om whatever moves on a global basis. I have stated numerous times, it is IMPOSSIBLE to forecast a single market in isolation because the wildcard comes from contagions set in motion elsewhere. It is like sunning on the beach and there is a tidal wave coming because of an earthquake you didn’t know happened. Unless you monitor the world, you cannot even forecast the weather for tomorrow. It would all be just dumb-luck and chance.

I have been warning that about 50% of the municipal governments in Germany are on the verge of bankruptcy.

I have warned that about 50% of the German municipalities are on the verge of bankruptcy. The pensions have been unfunded and are absorbing everything. As we saw in Detroit with more than 50% of current revenue going to pensions, taxes either rise, the borrow more, or they are out of business. We are in a giant bull market for taxes increases on every level. This is the real downside of Marxism – they theory that just keeps taking.

 

The German municipalities currently need more than 100 billion euros to renovate their dilapidated infrastructure. Government has been mismanaged on a grand scale and all politicians can do is think it is the public’s fault for not paying more taxes. They refuse to ever look at how they are running government on every level. It would be nice if there really were smart elite people in charge for only someone without any common-sense would have designed a political system that currently rules the world.

 

God never promised honest politicians nor did He promise qualified ones. Society votes for people who smile nice and we think that there is an honest politicians in the every corner of the world. The problem is, God made the world round and he has been laughing ever since.

 

German municipalities face rising debt levels that mimic Greece. They cannot afford the investment to even maintain schools and roads any more. We are headed into an economic abyss beyond contemplation.

This is part of the reason they are looking for bail-ins and even Merkel has determined they cannot allow any referendums fearing the people will vote against the EU.

The Bremen state government has now imposed a spending freeze today. The reason has been the unexpected expenditure and revenue shortfalls in the total amount of 60 million euros. The Hanseatic city must therefore finance until further notice only mandatory tasks.

Politicians cannot see that this system is doomed. They keep looking for everything possible to raise more and more taxes. They only see what they need, not what they are doing in the total destruction of the economy. Around 350 German companies have to pay back discounts on green electricity. Corresponding changes in the German Renewable Energies Act, the European Commission has confirmed. Compared to the rebates granted by a total of 10 billion euros but the repayment of 30 million euros are required.

Meanwhile, German highest Constitutional Court criticized the applicable tax privileges for corporate inheritances. So far heirs get the tax completely canceled if they continue the inherited company. Heirs of private assets, however, have to give a large part of the state. Moving in this direction wiped out small farmers in the USA forcing them to sell land to pay the taxes. When applied to productive business, applying inheritance taxes forces companies to close and reduce employment. It is not the same as just inheriting money or assets. An ongoing business is the economic engine of the economy.

It is just amazing who disconnected government are from the reality of the economy. Everything is geared to move toward the confiscation of wealth not reforming the system. These people are just brain-dead. Unemployment among the youth if over 60%. In American over 60% of students have been defrauded by telling them they need a college education, saddle them with huge debts that are NOT dischargeable even in bankruptcy, and they cannot find employment based upon the education they just paid for. That is fraud. If I sold you a trading program and it didn’t work, isn’t that consumer fraud? Not if you are a school.

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Having dictated to the citizenry – “Do not get cynical. Hope is the better choice,” this week, we thought the following cartoon was particularly appropriate… 

 

 

Source: Cagle

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Excerpted from John Hussman’s Weekly Market Comment,

Occam’s razor is a principle that states that among various hypotheses that might be used to explain a set of observations, the hypothesis – consistent with the evidence – that relies on the smallest number of assumptions is generally preferred. Essentially, the razor shaves away what is unnecessary and retains the most compact explanation that is consistent with the data.

…

When we observe the increasingly tortured arguments that “this time is different,” we see investors discarding straightforward explanations that are fully consistent with the evidence and opting instead for the aliens-from-Xenon theory.

As much as investors seem to want to believe that aliens from Xenon have brought some brave new world, our valuation approach is consistent with a century of market history and has not missed a beat even in recent market cycles. We continue to view long-term prospects for the stock market as dismal at present valuations.

…

We increasingly see investors believing that history is no longer informative, and that the Federal Reserve has finally discovered how to produce perpetually rising markets and can intervene without consequence to support the markets and the economy indefinitely. Maybe it’s no longer true that valuations are related to subsequent returns. Maybe, contrary to all historical experience, reliable measures of valuation that have had a 90% correlation with actual subsequent market returns can now remain at double their historical norms forever, thereby allowing capital gains to be unhindered by any future retreat in valuation multiples as fundamentals grow over time. It’s just that one must also rely on valuations never retreating, because even if earnings grow at 6% annually indefinitely, and the CAPE simply touches a historically-normal level of 16 even 20 years from today, the total return on stocks, including dividends, would still be expected to average only 5% annually over that horizon. That’s just arithmetic.

…

Meanwhile, nothing even in recent market cycles provides any support to the assumption of permanently elevated valuations. The only support for it is the desire of investors to avoid contemplating outcomes the same as the market suffered the last two times around. “This time is different” requires a lot of counterfactual assumptions. Occam’s razor would suggest a nice shave.

Read full report here

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1r6BaOc Tyler Durden

With EURUSD hardly budging, constantly disappointing economic data (from periphery to the core now), and central bank transmission mechanisms that are entirely clogged and useless for anything but stuffing the pockets of bloated bank balance-sheets with domestic sovereign debt, it is no wonder Germany’s Bundesbank has said ‘enough’. “If we pursued our own monetary policy… it would look different,” explained Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann. As Reuters reports, Weidmann noted that many savers in Germany were irritated by low interest rates and property prices were overvalued in some big city areas in Germany; implicitly threatening the ECB’s chatter-box that “this phase of low interest rates, this phase of expansive monetary policy, should not last longer than is absolutely necessary.”

 

As Reuters reports,

The European Central Bank’s interest rates are too low for Germany, Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann said on Saturday, adding that ECB monetary policy should remain expansive for no longer than absolutely necessary.

 

Speaking at a Bundesbank open day for the public, Weidmann noted that many savers in Germany were irritated by low interest rates but said these were aimed at supporting investment and consumption.

 

…

 

“It is clear that monetary policy, when seen from a German viewpoint, is too expansive for Germany, too loose,” Weidmann told a crowd at the start of the open day. “If we pursued our own monetary policy, which we don’t, it would look different.”

Problems are coming…

Bundesbank Vice President Claudia Buch said property prices were overvalued in some big city areas in Germany by up to 20-25 percent, but that there was no acute risk of a price bubble forming.

 

Repeating a warning he has made previously about the risks of leaving policy loose for too long, Weidmann added: “This phase of low interest rates, this phase of expansive monetary policy, should not last longer than is absolutely necessary.”

But – for now – we take our lumps for the greater good of the United States of Europe…

The ECB cut interest rates to record lows last month as part of a package of measures to breathe life into a sluggish euro zone economy, where inflation is running far below the central bank’s target and there is a dearth of credit to smaller firms.

 

The German economy, Europe’s largest, has been outperforming other countries in the bloc, however.

 

“But we are in a currency union,” he said. “That means that in our monetary policy decisions, we must orientate ourselves to the whole currency union.”

*  *  *
But, but, but everyone said Europe was fixed… It seems as we draw closer to that day of judgment (when AQR proves nothing and Draghi is froced to admit that TLTROs were useless), the “euro” will once again be in doubt as politicians seek an ‘out’ by blaming someone else. Given the recent election – it’s clear the people are not amused.

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Submitted by Mike Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg,

Blythe Masters is perhaps the most maligned human being on earth by silver investors due to suspicions of JP Morgan’s manipulation in the silver market. Well she’s back in the news, but it has nothing to do with silver. Rather, the news relates to the fact that her ex-husband and commodities traders, Daniel Masters, has just launched a Bitcoin hedge fund from the island of Jersey, a British Crown dependency.

We learn from Newsweek that:

Daniel Masters, a 50-year-old veteran commodities trader, started working for some of the largest companies in the world right out of university, trading in London, New York and Zug, Switzerland, for JPMorgan Chase and Phibro before moving on to the New York Mercantile Exchange, a short walk from Wall Street. By all appearances, it was your standard Wall Street career.

 

Then, in 2008, he moved to a tiny island off the coast of France called Jersey, which this week opened its doors to the island’s first fully regulated Bitcoin hedge fund—run by none other than Masters himself—as part of a push to create a nascent Silicon Valley in the heart of the English Channel, replete with government-funded entrepreneurial hubs and startup accelerators.

 

No sooner did word of the offshore Bitcoin fund get out than Reddit spluttered to life, devoting two pages, here and here, to debating whether the virtual currency’s baby steps into the institutional investing realm is really good news or bad news for Bitcoin, whose meteoric rise has thus far been mostly successful in eschewing traditional finance.

 

Masters, co-principal of Global Advisors Jersey Ltd.—which trades up to $2 billion of energy and equities—is the latest of a handful of fund managers trotting out new Bitcoin investment funds in recent months, as investors clamor for innovative ways to skim the froth off the digital currency’s impressive, if often unpredictable, price pops and drops and, occasionally, collapses.

 

He believes Bitcoin’s prices will stabilize as the currency and technology mature—similar to what has happened over the past decade with oil—but in the meantime, he estimates the value of Bitcoin could rise to $2,000 or more. “Right now, Bitcoin has about 1,000 percent annualized volatility,” he says. “Compare that to oil at 15 to 20 percent and stocks at 10 to 15 percent.” In other words, the potential upside, in the eyes of an experienced trader, are too appealing to resist.

 

Speaking from CoinSummit in London, Simon Hamblin, CEO of Netagio, a year-old U.K. company that specializes in secure Bitcoin storage and is a custodian for the Bitcoin fund being launched by Masters, says any fund must take numerous precautions to guard against the loss of Bitcoins. “We keep our Bitcoin in cold storage, in different forms both physical and media, and always keep it offline, heavily encrypted and in multiple locations,” he told Newsweek.

 

This week, Netagio, based in the Isle of Man—a Crown dependency, like Jersey—announced the debut of a London-based Bitcoin exchange that will allow individuals to trade Bitcoin against the British pound and gold. Netagio spun off this spring from Jersey’s GoldMoney Network Ltd., which stores $1.4 billion of metals in five undisclosed locations for clients across Europe.

I covered GoldMoney’s move into Bitcoin earlier this year in the post: GoldMoney Adds Bitcoin to its Suite of Services.

Hamblin, who says he stumbled into finance from a more technical field, sees Bitcoin as the “perfect merger between technology and finance.”

 

Masters, the former spouse of another commodities kingpin—JPMorgan Chase’s recently departed global head of commodities, Blythe Masters—says the Jersey Bitcoin fund will target up to $200 million in Bitcoin investments in the first six months to a year and ramp up from there. The fund went through a yearlong approval process via the island’s regulator, the Jersey Financial Services Commission, which offers a more streamlined process than New York and London do, Masters says. He adds, “In Jersey, you have one person playing sheriff instead of a dozen.”

 

“Imagine being able to walk into a car dealership, scan your phone over the price tag of the vehicle you want, and, in an instant, you’ve paid, you’ve updated your car’s ownership information, insurance, vehicle registration,” Masters says. “You jump in the car, you drive off, you never have to speak to a single person.” Because a Bitcoin wallet can be attached to inanimate objects, as well as carried on phones, the possibilities are endless, he says.

 

“Finance is one of the few industries that is still in need of a disruption,” he told Newsweek.

He’s exactly right. All year, I have maintained that Bitcoin was unlikely to make a major move higher until the summer. Well summer is here, and whether you like it or not, Wall Street is moving in.

Full article here.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1jmKY41 Tyler Durden

Israel’s bombing campaign of Gaza shows no signs of abating: as WaPo reports “Israel widened its air assault against the Gaza Strip’s Hamas rulers on Saturday, hitting a mosque it said was hiding rockets” as well as a school which it said was used by Hamas as a cover, “as Palestinians said their death toll from the five-day offensive rose to over 125.”

The military said it has struck more than 1,100 targets, including Hamas rocket launchers, command centers and weapon manufacturing and storage facilities, in a bid to stop relentless rocket fire coming Gaza. Officials in the territory said that besides the mosque, the strikes also hit Hamas-affiliated charities and banks, as well as a home for the disabled, killing two women.

On the other of the border, there have so far been no reported fatalities in Israel from the continued rocket fire. This compares to a death toll in Gaza of over 125, according to its Health Ministry spokesman Ashraf al-Kidra, with more than 920 wounded. In order to validate the seriousness of the Gaza strikes, Israel continues to sound air raid sirens every few hours which then serve merely to justify even further Gaza bombing, and so on, in a closed loop.

Of course, in this millennia long conflict, “who started” is about the stupidest thing one can ask. Here are the photos of the destruction.

On the Israeli side:

And from Gaza:

In short, Hamas militants have been hit hard. Though the exact breakdown of casualties remains unclear, dozens of the dead also have been civilians. The offensive showed no signs of slowing down Saturday as Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon said his country should ready itself for several more days of fighting.

Hamas said it hoped the mosque attack would galvanize support for it in the Muslim world.

“(It) shows how barbaric this enemy is and how much it is hostile to Islam,” said Husam Badran, a Hamas spokesman in Doha, Qatar. “This terrorism gives us the right to broaden our response to deter this occupier.”

The Israeli military released an aerial photo of the mosque it hit, saying Hamas hid rockets in it right next to another religious site and civilian homes. It said Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other Gaza militant groups use this tactic of abusing religious sites to conceal weapons and establish underground tunnel networks, deliberately endangering civilians.

Perhaps. However it does not explain the soaring numbers of civilian casualties. And what makes it worse is that with surprising regularity the Israel defense forces release videos showing the pinpoint accuracy of Gaza bombing runs: in other words, if Israel wanted not to kill civilians it certainly could. As much is proven in the following IDF video released earlier, which allegedly shows an Israeli pilot calling off an airstrike after children were spotted near a target.

More proof of just how much precision Israel has when crushing Hamas, which increasingly appears to be a campaign merely designed to demoralize and inflict as much “collateral damage” as possible

Here the IDF targets an alleged rocket-launching site located near a school. It was unclear if any school children were present during the attack.

IDF bombing a car allegedly carrying three “terrorists”:

More IDF strikes, this time on what are allegedly concealed weapons:

And more of the same:

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