93% Of All Jobs “Created” Since 2008 Were Added Through The Birth/Death Model

According to prevailing narrative, job growth in the US, where GDP over the past decade has been on par with that in the 1930s, is one of the otherwise brighter economic indicators in a time when much of the economic data such as capital spending, productivity and especially wage growth (so critical for the Fed’s future plans) has been a chronic disappointment. Today, for example, headlines blast that the US has enjoyed 80 months of continuous jobs growth with unemployment hitting 4.3% – the lowest since 2001. However, there is more to this “strong” number than meets the untrained eye.

As our freiends at Morningside Hill calculate, a full 93% of the new jobs reported since 2008 – 6.3 million out of 6.7 million – and 40% of the jobs in 2016 alone were added through the business birth and death model – a highly controversial model which is not supported by the data. On the contrary, all data on establishment births and deaths point to an ongoing decrease in entrepreneurship.

Here are the details of how over 90% of the jobs created in the past decade were nothing more than a “statistical” adjustment in some BLS model.

The controversial birth death adjustments

In order to account for jobs created or lost by new business formations or bankruptcies each month, the BLS introduced the birth/death adjustment. It started during the Reagan administration as Reagan was complaining that the bureau was undercounting the jobs he created. The birth-death model used to have a terrible name – the “bias adjustment factor.” This adjustment is computed using a model based on probability-based sampling methodology.

The table below shows the number of jobs that were added through birth/death adjustments over the past 17 years and the percentage of jobs added through the birth/death model

Let’s analyze the data.

  • Before 2003 few jobs were added through the adjustment, despite the fact that net business formations were much stronger back then (see data below).
  • Then, what strikes us as odd, is that according to the BLS in the depths of the 2007-2009 recession, the birth/death adjustment continued to add a lot of jobs – 904,000 jobs were added in 2009 alone. One would assume that in the nadir of the Great Recession when business defaults skyrocketed, the birth and death adjustment would be a net negative and subtract from the overall jobs number instead of adding to it.
  • Lastly, it turns out that a full 30% of jobs created since 2010 or 4.5 million out of 15 million jobs were added via the birth/death adjustment. It is also interesting to note that 40% of the jobs added in 2016 came through the adjustment.

The reason the BLS wanted to include this adjustment was a perception that they were undercounting jobs created through new start-up business formations (that were too young and too small to show up in the Establishment Survey). Those start-ups would eventually appear in their data, but with a few months’ lag. Therefore, if there was a steady supply of new start-up businesses and no sudden shifts in the trend, no adjustment would be necessary. Logically, it would only make sense to apply the adjustment if there is a significant increase in the rate of start-up formations, which has not materialized. On the contrary, multiple studies track a consistent decline in new business creation. Literally every study we have found documents the consistently deteriorating entrepreneurial environment in the US.

The following charts trace a clear downward trend in both employment gained from private sector births and the number of business births per year. Notice the suppressed level of births after 2008.

Furthermore, self-employed persons as a percentage of the working age population and the number of jobs created by establishments less than one year old are also declining.

A study by Harvard Business School entitled “Problems unsolved and a nation divided” summarizes the findings of its multi-year long project called “The US competitiveness project.” The study is a “fact-based effort to understand the disappointing performance of the American economy.” We found this project to be well worth the read and have selected the following chart (below to the left) depicting the multi-decade slowdown in new business formation. Further supporting the Harvard study findings, a Brookings Institution paper called “Declining business dynamism in the United States: a look at states and metros” shows that business formations slowed down and business deaths accelerated after the crisis of 2008 (below to the right).

Below to the left we have a chart from the Economic Innovation Group showing the net annual change in the number of US firms. Notice the significant slowdown after 2008, including 3 negative years. This is clearly not captured by the data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Below to the right we have a few charts from the Wall Street Journal summarizing some data points that confirm these trends.

With the data on new business formations and deaths in mind let us now go back to the BLS’s official birth / death adjustments. We have charted the net jobs added through the BLS model and ran a linear trend line to see if it captures the deteriorating entrepreneurial environment. In the chart below, the upward-trending line representing net jobs added through the adjustment is in complete dissonance with all the other data.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) seems to be alone in its belief that the entrepreneurial environment in the US is improving. We believe that the BLS has been artificially inflating the monthly payroll numbers via the birth and death adjustment. This overstatement is not trivial in nature – the adjustment added 30% of all jobs reported since 2010.

via http://ift.tt/2rQvfEh Tyler Durden

Trump Will Not Invoke “Executive Privilege” To Block Comey Testimony

On Friday, media speculation emerged that the Trump administration may seek to block former FBI director James Comey’s testimony scheduled for next Thursday after White House officials said that they did not know yet whether President Donald Trump would seek to block Comey’s testimony, a move that would spark another huge political backlash against the president. Speaking to reporters, Sean Spicer said “I have not spoken to counsel yet. I don’t know how they’re going to respond.”

As a reminder, the former FBI chief who was leading a probe into Russian meddling in last year’s presidential election and was fired by Trump last month, is due to testify on Thursday before the Senate Intelligence Committee as part of its own Russia-related investigation, and his remarks could “cause problems” for the Republican president per Reuters.

While invoking executive privilege can be a politically treacherous move, recalling past scandals like Watergate, in which Nixon asserted the power in efforts to block congressional investigations, it is worth recalling that none other than former President Barack Obama used the legal authority once, during congressional inquiries into the “Fast and Furious” scandal, after weapons ended up in the possession of Mexican gun cartels.

As Reuters further adds, “presidents can assert executive privilege to prevent government employees from sharing information. However, legal experts say it is not clear whether certain conversations between Trump and Comey that the president has talked about publicly would be covered, and any effort to block Comey, who is now a private citizen, from testifying could be challenged in court.” Furthermore,  Trump’s tweets about Mr. Comey would damage any claim of executive privilege.

James Comey better hope that there are no ‘tapes’ of our conversations before he starts leaking to the press!” Trump said in one post, shortly after The New York Times reported the request for the loyalty pledge.

However, the discussion now appears to be largely moot because as the NYT reported overnight, Trump does not plan to invoke executive privilege as a way to block Comey from testifying to Congress next week, the New York Times said on Friday citing two unnamed senior administration officials. 

One of the administration officials said Friday evening that Mr. Trump wanted Mr. Comey to testify because the president had nothing to hide and wanted Mr. Comey’s statements to be publicly aired. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because they did not want to be identified discussing a decision that had not been announced.

That said, the NYT concedes that Trump could still move to block the testimony next week, “given his history of changing his mind at the last minute about major decisions.” But legal experts have said that Mr. Trump has a weak case to invoke executive privilege because he has publicly addressed his conversations with Mr. Comey, and any such move could carry serious political risks.

As discussed previously, Comey is expected to testify about several conversations he had with the president, including one in which Mr. Trump encouraged him to stop investigating his former national security adviser, Michael T. Flynn, according to a memo by Comey. In another conversation during a one-on-one dinner at the White House, Trump asked Mr. Comey to pledge his loyalty, and Comey declined to do so, according to Mr. Comey’s associates. Comey, according to people close to him, recorded his discussions with Mr. Trump in memos he wrote shortly after each interaction. The memo has yet to be seen either in public, or in private.

via http://ift.tt/2sAKOvV Tyler Durden

The New Book Alyssa Milano Thinks Every Congressman Should Read [Reason Podcast]

Congress’s Constitution is a 500-page academic book about legislative authority, written over the course of a decade.

How fortunate for author Josh Chafetz, a professor of law at Cornell University and contributor at The Hill, that his topic has suddenly become rather trendy, as the general public takes a newly keen interest in the question of what leverage the House and Senate have over, say, a newly elected president.

Even America’s (one-time?) TV sweetheart is wondering who’s the boss in Washington?

Tune in to hear Reason magazine Editor in Chief Katherine Mangu-Ward talk with Chafetz about how what you learned in school about the balance of powers isn’t quite right, the story behind why filibusters are so common these days, and why former House Speaker John Boehner (R–S.C.) is underrated.

Produced by Ian Keyser.

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Katherine : Hi, I’m Katherine Mangu-Ward, and I’m here with Josh Chafetz to record the Reason Podcast. Josh is a Professor of Law at Cornell Law School. He received his B.A. from Yale University and his doctorate in politics from Oxford. He has a new book, ‘Congress’s Constitution: Legislative Authority and the Separation of Powers’. Thanks for talking with us, Josh.

Josh Chafetz: Thanks for having me.

Katherine : Everybody hates congress. Should congress feel slighted or does congress deserve it?

Josh Chafetz: I should start by saying everybody has always hated congress. Hating congress is an American national pastime, and I think partly that’s for reasons that we wouldn’t want to change, which is to say that congress is the institution where disagreement, and debate, and the good parts of democracy are most apparent, and it turns out that while Americans like those things in the abstract, they don’t always like seeing them. Right? They say they like compromise but they don’t like fighting and they don’t like unprincipled behavior. The reasons that we don’t like congress when we actually see it working are also the reasons that we say in the abstract that we do like things like democracy. I think it’s just inevitable that Americans dislike congress to be honest.

Katherine : Every school could learn that the separation of powers is one of the great things about the American system. You suggested that maybe we should complicate that idea a little bit. I think people have this idea that there are a list of things government does and it was divvied up among the branches, and the end, but that’s not right, is it?

Josh Chafetz: Yeah. My view is that the list of things that each of the branches does is not particularly static or written in stone, but there’s actually a relatively small number of discreet tools that each branch has granted in the constitution, and then how much power the branch has actually exercised in practice is largely a function of how successful they are at wielding those tools. That is to say how successful they are at engaging with the public. Over the course of American history for instance, the court system has managed to successfully convince Americans to allow it to wield significantly more power than it wielded in the late 18th or early 19th century. Since World War 2, the executive has also increased the amount of power that it wields, and again, this isn’t because it’s either of those branches is necessarily reaching out and doing things that violate discreet prohibitions in the constitution or that aren’t consistent with discreet powers that are granted to them, but rather because as they exercise power, if they exercise it successfully in ways that win over public support, then people tend to trust them with more power.

Katherine : You’re not exactly in a high trust situation in American politics right now. Congress isn’t the only branch that people are currently skeptical, weary, full of rage and hatred toward depending on exactly which platform you’re talking about. Can you talk a little bit about why it is that we focus so much on the accumulation of power in the executive and don’t talk nearly as much about congress and about the legislative generally? Is it just because there’s a guy behind the desk and it’s easy to personify that power and think about it that way or is there something else going on?

Josh Chafetz: I think that’s certainly part of it. I that’s certainly part of it. It’s easier to talk about an institution when you can identify it with a person, but I think it’s also more than that specifically when it comes to congress. We’re taught to think about congress in terms of passing laws, in terms of legislation, and that’s what congress does. It passes laws, and so then when you’re thinking about the power that congress has vis-a-vis the other branches, it actually seems like congress may have a fairly weak hand to play. Right?

If congress wants to check the president and all they can do is pass laws, the president can veto laws, and overriding vetoes is incredibly difficult and therefore incredibly rare. Likewise, if congress wants to check the courts, if all they can do is pass laws, then it turns out the courts can either interpret those laws down to nothing or strike them down, and it still winds up looking like congress doesn’t have all that much of a say in things. I think part of what my book is trying to do is actually expand how we think about congress, talk about all the things that congress does that aren’t just passing laws, and therefore, that do allow it to have a significant amount of power even if that power often operates underneath the surface. This goes back to your first question because sometimes the actual use of this power looks pretty unappealing to the public, so I’m interested for example in things like government shutdowns or refusing to pass appropriations bills or refusing to confirm people either to the executive branch or to the courts. Right?

Those often get talked about in negative derogatory terms as gridlock or dysfunction, but they’re also levers that the House of Congress can pull on to get agreement or to get compromises out of the other branches in collateral areas. Right? You’ve threatened to shut down the government, and in exchange, you get policy concessions from the president. That happened. For example, John Boehner led House of Representatives in 2011 shortly after a major republican gains in the 2010 election.

It came very close to shutting down the government, and in response, the eventual deal that was passed that kept the government open had all kinds of concessions to republican policy objectives, and even in areas that weren’t directly related to the budget, so congress has all of these mechanisms, but we’re not used to thinking of them that way because we’re used to thinking of congress as just an institution that passes laws.

Katherine : When congress threatens to shut down the government, that’s congress working appropriately?

Josh Chafetz: It can be. Again, I don’t want to be understood to say that every time congress uses one of these tools, it’s using it well or appropriately or intelligently. It’s frequently using them badly and stupidly, and of course, partly it’s going to depend on what exactly your view is on the policy goals that particular congressional actor are pursuing at the time. For example, in that 2011 near shut down, there were some things that the republicans were after that a lot of people might not think are good policy goals. Other people would think they are good policy goals, so the extent to which you think that what they were pursuing is a good thing is probably going to affect how you think about their willingness to potentially shut down the government.

Then also of course, frequently, when they use one of these tools, they use it in a way that undermines their own professed objectives, so it’s not just whether you agree with their objectives. It’s how smartly they’re using the tool. If you give someone a hammer, they could use it to hammer the nail, but they could also hit themselves in the head with it. Those are both uses of that tool, but one of them is perhaps slightly a better use of that tool than the other.

Katherine : It depends on which head I suppose. I don’t know.

Josh Chafetz: Exactly.

Katherine : Let’s talk a little bit about the tendency to say that things are worst than they’ve ever been, people are behaving more unethically than they ever have, people are more partisan than they ever have been particularly in congress. I’m generally skeptical of that kind of declinist or catastrophic account of things. I think your book certainly offers a look back across quite a long history of the semi-disastrous human interactions. Are things in fact worse than they’ve ever been from any of those perspectives?

Josh Chafetz: No. I absolutely don’t think so, and I don’t think anyone with a fair look back across U.S. history could possibly think that things are worse than they’ve ever been. If you look at one of the chapters in the book on congressional discipline as the power of the house is to discipline one another, talk about just this huge number of brawls that erupted between members in the 19th century. Right? Most people have heard of the Caning of Charles Sumner on the senate floor, but that’s just one in a long series. I call them ‘Small-scaled dress rehearsals for the Civil War’ because they’re almost all sectional in character.

Katherine : Right.

Josh Chafetz: In 1829, there’s a duel between two members where one member kills another. There was an incident a couple of decades later where a member pulls a pistol on the senate floor on anther member, so to talk about today’s incivility as being somehow extraordinary, and it’s not just in the run up to the Civil War. I mean, in the opening decade of the republic, the conflict between the nascent Jeffersonian faction and the federalist was intense, and the federalist thought that Thomas Jefferson wanted to reenact the French Revolution on American soil, and so there’s nothing uniquely incivil about this particular moment in American history.

Katherine : Was there any congressmen, any character that you came across when you were working on this book that you feel is underrated, somebody that people should know about either because of his prowess with the pistol on the floor or for some other reason?

Josh Chafetz: I think there are a lot of people that I find they’re at least fascinating. I don’t know about underrated. One person who … I think probably maybe isn’t underrated because a lot of people do know about him, but thinking about John Quincy Adams’ congressional career after his presidency and especially his fight against the Gag rule. The Gag rule was this rule that was imposed in congress in the mid-century to try to prevent any member basically from bringing forward any petition about ending slavery. The idea was, “If we just don’t talk about it, it’ll be easier to keep the peace between north and south”, and John Quincy Adams was a staunch opponent of the Gag rule, violated it on several occasions and faced down the house in doing so, and eventually succeeded in having it repealed.

I think more discussion of that is warranted in thinking about the way congress worked in the middle of the 19th century. A little bit later in the century, Speaker Thomas Reed I think is a really important character. We’ve lost sight of the fact that for most of the 19th century, it was actually the House of Representatives, not the senate where obstruction and delay were more common, and finally, in 1890 with which are called the ‘Reed Rules’. Thomas Reed basically did a House of Representatives equivalent to the Nuclear Option and essentially created the majoritarian house that we have today. Then, to make a much more recent example, I actually think John Boehner is underrated. Actually –

Katherine : Tell me more.

Josh Chafetz: He gets a lot of hate from both sides of the aisle. I think actually, given the hand he was dealt, he was remarkably successful at holding his coalition together. Right? I mean, you got a pretty good example in Paul Ryan where it turns out that this particular house coalition is really hard to hold together, and I think for most of his speakership, Boehner actually did a better job than Ryan has done, and I think he fairly successfully negotiated … Again, I talked about this 2011 near shut down. Boehner, despite the fact that his party controlled only the house, not the senate or the presidency, managed to get a fair amount of what House Republicans actually wanted out of that interaction.

Again, I think leaving aside any views of the desirability of the particular policy concessions that he got, I think that Boehner was actually a much more successful speaker and a much more successful leader of the coalition in the house than a lot of people have given credit for, and I think with the hindsight of a decade or two, I think more people will come to see that.

Katherine : Let’s talk about the budget process a little bit in particular because that does seem to be one place where at least in recent memory, there was a more regularized, a more formal approach. The budgets were at least somewhat more predictable in how frequently they arrived and were passed. Do you see that as a sign of congressional … Is it as a shift in the way that congress is using its powers?

Josh Chafetz: Yeah. I think it’s hard not to be … From a congressionalist perspective anyway, it’s hard not to be disappointed in the failure to pass budget resolutions in a number of years recently. Now, that’s not the case right now. We’re currently operating under a budget resolution –

Katherine : The fact that that sentence even has to be said like, “Hey, we’re currently operating under a budget resolution. That’s cool” tells us what the lay of the land is. Right?

Josh Chafetz: Right. What had happened is that a number of years during the Obama Administration, essentially the entire fiscal year had passed operating under a series of continuing resolutions, and the reason that that is disturbing is because budgets … The normal budget process, the process where both houses pass a budget resolution, and then pass out the appropriations bills that are consistent with that resolution, and then those individual appropriations bills go to the president and are signed, that gives congress significantly more of a say over both how federal money is expended because those appropriations bills passed pursuant to the budget resolution are much more detailed than a continuing resolution is, and they also as part of that gives congress the ability to change things that maybe somewhat collateral to the budgetary process, so that most importantly is what reconciliation bills are, the ability to change things that are not exactly about how much money is being spent, but are rather about what kinds of programs the federal government is pursuing. That’s a lot more complicated than that in many ways. The budget reconciliation bills have all kinds of restrictions on what they can actually do, but this general point is that in not passing a budget resolution and going through the normal budgeting process, congress does sacrifice a decent amount of its power that year over how the federal government is going to work.

Katherine : This is also a place where congress seems to be spectacularly bad at binding its future self. I mean, sequestration was an interesting case study in attempting to say, “Listen, we’re going to impose constraints on this process. We’re going to -“

Josh Chafetz: Sequestration, they actually have worked too well because sequestration, the idea behind the sequester was that it wouldn’t go into effect, that it was going to cut programs that were so near and dear to the hearts of so many different members that surely they would come up with some other kind of compromise before it actually went into effect, and then they couldn’t, and it did, so there is a sense in which it bound itself, just not in the way that it hoped it would be binding itself.

Katherine : Right. I guess that’s fair enough to say. The idea of sequestration was supposed to be a deterrent or an encouragement to better behavior, and instead, it just became the consequence of bad behavior. Are mechanisms like sequestration, do they crop up frequently in the history of congress’ attempt to constrain its own behavior or to set limits on what should and shouldn’t be done in the near future?

Josh Chafetz: There are some examples of congress trying to tie itself in that way. I mean, the most famous … The example that everyone points to as the success story is the Base Closing Commission in the ’80s where it was clear to everybody that we had too many military bases, but of course, any attempt to write a piece of legislation that closes down, particular military bases is going to really gore the oxes of certain members because it’ll just devastate their districts. Instead, they basically delegated the whole thing to a commission, and then setup a process where the commission’s report would come back to congress and it would have to either be voted up or down. There was no possibility of amendment. That actually worked.

Obviously, the people who lived in those particular districts, near those bases weren’t happy with the outcome, but they did wind up passing the measure through and it is in retrospect regarded as a success. I think those were in some sense subsets of a larger category of things which is each house in congress has the constitutional authority to create its own rules and procedures, and the ways in which those rules are structured often are intended to both empower and constrain the houses in certain ways, so everything from the way it sets up its committee structure to the Budget Act of 1974 which creates the budget process itself, the one that has been followed with a greater or lesser degree of success in recent years, these are all examples of congress in some sense empowering itself, but also in some sense, constraining itself. Anytime you create procedures for yourself as an institution, they’re going to both empower and constrain you in certain ways, but it’s also the only way that an institution like congress can act is by trying to create the best procedural rules that it can, and then working with them or when they become intolerable changing them.

Katherine : There’s a meme that’s now gone big on both republican and democratic sides of the debate which is those other guys, those other side in congress, they are being awful because they’re doing some variant of, “You got to pass the bill to find out what’s in it”. That’s a phrase that I’ve certainly heard now lobbed in both directions particularly about the healthcare bills that have been out there. Is that a fair criticism? I think congress has always delegated a certain amount of the nitty-gritty, the rule-making to bureaucratic bodies, but this also seems to be about congress having time to vet the actual black letter of what they’re passing as well.

Josh Chafetz: I think you’re absolutely right. There’s a whole bunch of different ways that could be interpreted, and I think we can disaggregate at least three different ways. In the original debate over the Affordable Care Act way back in 2010 when Nancy Pelosi said the thing that has in popular lore come down as you have to pass the bill to see what’s in it, what she was saying in context is the costs and benefits, which of course she was primarily talking about the benefits of this bill won’t become apparent to people until it goes into effect. Right? To really understand its effect, to viscerally understand its effect in the real world, you have to … It’s such a complicated machine.

You have to pass it and wait for it to go into effect, and that’s going to be inevitable with any particular complex piece of legislation. It’s just not going to be immediately apparent to people how it works until they see it in operation. The second way that this might be interpreted is the way that you mentioned, which is that almost all significant legislation delegates at least a significant amount of authority to administrative agencies to create the specific rules that will operate. In some sense, you don’t know exactly what the governing legal regime will be until the law is passed, and then the agencies go through their rule-making process and pass the regulations under the legislation. Then, the third way that it might work I think has been a little bit more apparent in the debates this year over the American Healthcare Act, the Repeal and Replace Bill for the ACA, which is for example passing things before there’s a CBO score so that really, nobody voting on it actually has a reliable estimate of what the costs of this particular piece of legislation will be.

I find the third one of those to be the most disturbing partly because there’s no good reason for it. People can argue about this amount of delegation to administrative agencies and things like that, but there is a least a rational reason why you might want to leave certain kinds of very specific rule-making up to certain kinds of administrative bodies, bodies populated by experts and things like that. It’s hard to think of a good neutral policy rule for passing a bill before your own in-house economist have had a chance to tell you what that bill will cost. I mean, there are obviously political reasons why Ryan wanted and why Trump wanted a win on that bill at that moment, but it’s hard to come up with a good public spirited reason why they couldn’t wait another two weeks to get a CBO score.

Katherine : Is that something that is new or have there been periods where the political hustle overcomes the process in this particular way?

Josh Chafetz: I mean, yes, there always have been periods in which the imperatives that can turn politics.

Katherine : Right. Hey, it doesn’t. Sometimes those politics influence what congress does is not maybe the most useful question but could, and so –

Josh Chafetz: No, no, but it pops up in different ways at different times, and to my mind, if I could get rid of anyone word in talking about American politics generally, it would be unprecedented. Almost nothing is ever unprecedented especially if you think a little bit more broadly about what the governing precedence are. CBO as an institution hasn’t been around all that long, but there have been other bills that have been passed with quickly. There have been other moments in history where the existing procedural rules have been cast aside in one way or another. I talked about the creation of the Reed Rules in 1890 that basically resulted from Speaker Reed who had a very, very, very slim majority at the time essentially saying, “I’m going to disregard this preexisting way we’ve always counted a quorum, and instead, counted differently so as to prevent the democrats and the minority from basically bringing the house to a halt”. Right?

That was changing the procedural rules at a moment’s notice because there was a sense that those procedural rules were being abused. Abuse of course is in the eye of the beholder, so from the democrat’s perspective at that moment, that was just an example of brute force casting aside the way things have always been done. I think there are plenty of examples of situations in which the normal procedural order hasn’t been followed for all kinds of different political reasons at different moments.

Katherine : I was struck because I was looking to the book at how often the word quorum comes up that that seems to play a much larger role in the way that we should think about the workings of congress, certainly the way that the very earliest congresses worked than I had previously understood, and obviously, this example suggests that that’s still going on even today. What is it about … Why is this system built in that way? Why is it that this check on so much of congressional action is how many people are in the room at that moment?

Josh Chafetz: I think partly it’s because you don’t want the legislative body operating on a skeleton crew, and there might be understandable reasons why it would try to operate on a skeleton crew. That is to say it simply can’t assemble all of its, or even a large percentage of its members at any given moment, and this was of course more of an issue with pre-modern transportation technology. Then, you’re also worried about manipulation, so you’re worried that someone might really quickly convene the chamber with only their friends present and try to pass something through, sort of pulling the wool over on the majority of the chamber. There’s significant debates about how many members should be required for a quorum, and the constitution took a pretty aggressive stance. In English Parliament, the quorum has always been a very small number of members at the House of Commons.

The U.S. constitution requires a majority of each house to be present for a quorum. What that means is that there might be again, especially in times of pre-modern transportation technologies, there might be times when it’s hard to assemble a quorum so the opening of the first congress in 1789 was delayed for months before they could get quorums present in both houses. Then, what actually happened in the 1890’s with the Reed Rules were that the democrats started using what’s called a ‘Disappearing Quorum’, which is to say the republican majority was only I think three or four members at that point, so if any republicans were out sick or home in their district or something like that, if all the democrats just refuse to respond to the quorum call, then there’d be fewer than a majority of the house present and the house couldn’t conduct any business. After the democrats had done this enough times, what Reed finally did is he just ordered the clerk to count all the democrats who are present even if they refused to respond to the quorum call. There’s this possibility for manipulation going in either direction.

The possibility of the unscrupulous speaker could convene the house with too few members and try to put something over, and that’s what the quorum requirement is meant to guard against, but on the other side, there’s then this worry that a too high a quorum requirement can be used an unscrupulous minority to try to completely gum up the works and hold up the chamber.

Katherine : You argue in your closing chapter for is you get a little a normative in there and you argue for why we might prefer what you call the ‘Multiplicity-based understanding of the separation of powers’. You say maybe it’s better for deliberation. It’s better for representation pass as it caught my eye though was tyranny prevention. Talk about that a little bit.

Josh Chafetz: Right. In some sense, that’s actually the most classic of this reasons for liking something like the separation of powers, as well as for liking something like federalism, the idea that you disperse power among multiple different institutions in the hopes that those institutions will check one another, and therefore prevent any one of them from growing so powerful that it could plausibly be said to behave autocratically or tyrannically. If you just have a situation where there’s only a president, it’s much more plausible that that president would wind up becoming an autocrat, whereas if you give significant amounts of power as well to congress and to the courts, and for that matter, to the states as well, then the hope is they all check one another through separation of powers and through federalism in ways that will prevent any of them from becoming overweening in that way.

Katherine : That traditional school kid understanding of how separation of powers works obviously, that general idea is what you learn. What do you think what is the texture that that account is missing or what else is going on that maybe is a subtle or fail say fun on the out of control autocrat?

Josh Chafetz: Those are great questions. I think they’re this back and forth, so you get this sort of … As you just commented the school kid version of it, and then you get a response that’s been increasingly prominent and influential in recent years which is people saying, “Yeah, but that doesn’t take into account political parties”. Right? Famously, the generation that drafted the constitution, even though they almost immediately participated in the formation of political parties didn’t at the moment.

They were drafting it, anticipate, or at least provide for political parties in the constitutional document, and so the response is yeah, but political parties swamp the separation of powers. That is to say you’re not going to get the ambition checking ambition because if congress is in the same hands as the presidency, they’re going to behave first and foremost as partisans, not first and foremost as members of congress. Right? Their ambition won’t be tied to their branch, but rather to their party. My response to that as an increasingly prominent argument is to say, “Yeah, but there’s one more step”. Right?

It’s not that I’m denying the partisanship is increasingly important. It’s just that when you diffuse power among all these different institutions, you increase the likelihood that both parties will have at least one institutional foothold. Right? First of all, even in the crude sense in which unified government means just control the presidency of the House of the Senate, it’s actually quite rare in American history. Obviously, it’s something that we have right now.

It’s something that democrats had from 2009 to 2011, but it’s quite rare and it usually ends pretty quickly. Even more than that, I think you think about all the ways in which power is defused. It’s even rarer, so democratic appointees now form the majority on most of the Courts of Appeals in the United States. There are obviously some states, although not that many under unified democratic control right now. There are always going to be institutions within the American governing scheme, but whichever party doesn’t have the presidency or doesn’t have congress, nevertheless has those institutions and can use the tools that those institutions provide to push back and to try to push for not only the policy outcomes that they want, but also to try to push to win over public support so that in the future election cycles, they can try to take over more levers and power, and it’s that kind of competition that incorporates parties.

It doesn’t pretend they don’t exist, but nevertheless says the structural schemes created by the constitution, separation of powers, also federalism and things like that do in fact play an important role in promoting a governing scheme that overall I think can be said to work fairly well in the grand scheme of things. I said at the beginning, we do like … It is a national pastime to complain about American government, but I think looking over this broad swath of American history, it has worked relatively well most of the time.

Katherine : A ringing endorsement of our system. There’s a certain line of libertarian thinking that says gridlock is good, and that line, the justification for that line sounds pretty similar to what you’ve just described, gridlock understood in the broadest sense to just be an elaborate system of interlocking checks and breaks on various entities. Do you think that that way of thinking is historically literate and do you think that it’s true? Do you think that gridlock understood maybe in the broadest sense is good or has been good for America historically?

Josh Chafetz: I don’t buy into that actually, and that’s because I think no matter what your political position is, whether you’re libertarian, whether you’re liberal, whether you’re conservative, there are things about the governing structure that you want to see change. Right? I imagine for example many libertarians are not entirely thrilled with the size and scope of the federal government and its regulatory authority today. If you want that to change, you need legislation. Right?

You need to pass things through congress to change the way things look in whatever direction you want them to change, so I tend not to think that really that any political orientation ought to be in favor of gridlock per se, but I guess the other thing that I do want to say about this is that I’m not sure that gridlock … I’m pretty sure that it doesn’t make sense to talk about gridlock as a phenomenon. Gridlock is, “What happens when the status quo endures?” Gridlock is what people who don’t like the status quo tend to say is going on when the laws they want to see passed aren’t getting passed or the nominees they want to see confirmed aren’t getting confirmed or whatever, but it seems to me that if we actually want to understand the American governing system, we need to think not in terms of gridlock, but instead, in terms of the conditions necessary to motivate government action. That is to say, “What degree of consensus do you need? How does that consensus need to manifest itself in order to pass some particular bill or in order to confirm some particular nominee?”, because do something isn’t a legislative program. Right?

I tend to think that people who are generally satisfied with the status quo generally don’t think that any legislation needs to be passed in a particular area. Then, they’re not going to call it ‘Gridlock’. Right? They’re just going to say, “Okay, that things are working pretty well there”. It’s only where they want to see things change and they don’t see change that they’re going to call it ‘Gridlock’.

That means I think that almost nobody should be in favor of gridlock because gridlock again is the word they used when a change they want to see happening isn’t happening, but instead, people should be thinking about, “What kind of change do I want to see happening? Is there actually public support for that change or am I just deluding myself because I want to see it happen?” Only if you can look around and convince yourself, “Hey, there actually is widespread support for this change” and yet, it’s not getting enacted, then, you might want to start talking about, “What structural features are preventing it from happening?” Right? Does it make sense then to talk in terms of some kind of democratic malfunction or dysfunction?

Until you in good faith convinced yourself that, “This isn’t just change I want to see, but actually change that there is democratic impetus behind”, it doesn’t seem to make sense to jump immediately to talking about gridlock with its implications that something has gone wrong.

Katherine : Another place for that language seems to come up where there’s that kind of divide is the use of the filibuster, and you described how the filibuster becomes routine or more routine in the ’70s and how one of the effects of that was to transfer power away from congress and to the executive. Can you talk about that a little bit, and in particular again whether people who didn’t like the things that were being filibustered on had a very different view of whether it was a sign that congress was function or dysfunctional?

Josh Chafetz: Right. The filibuster as you said becomes increasingly routinized starting in the 1970’s, and there’s a number of reasons for that, but one that’s pretty commonly put forward and that I find persuasive at least as a partial explanation is the creation of what’s called the ‘Two-track system’ which is to say something could be filibustered, but other business could then go ahead on the senate floor while it was being filibustered, so it was no longer this sort of Mr. Smith goes to Washington. You have to stay and keep talking indefinitely kind of thing. Once you do that, of course it lowers the cost of filibustering which then increases its prevalence so that filibustering which throughout most of the mid-20th century had been reserved for issues where there were especially intense feelings, and by the way, that usually not had been reserved for filibustering against Civil Rights bills. Then, in the 1970’s, the cost of filibustering goes down, and so its prevalence begins to increase to the point whereby the mid to late 1990’s and especially in the first decade of the 21st century, it just made sense to say the filibuster wasn’t a rule of debate at all.

It was just a super majority rule for getting things through the senate. One of the effects … It has many effects, but one of the effects of that is I think to transfer power as you said to the executive, and you can see that both in the context of personnel and in the context of policy. In the context of personnel, you see increasing or at least an attempt at increasingly aggressive uses of recess appointments. The Supreme Court came back and to some extent put a stop to that in the old Caning, but you saw unprecedented attempts by the Obama Administration to claim that the senate was in recess when it wasn’t.

You also saw increasing use of acting appointees in otherwise in a confirmed position, so people who are technically temporary, staying in office much longer than they had in the past partly as a result of how hard it is to get someone confirmed permanently to that position. Then, in the policy context, you see it in terms of the administrations of both parties, making increasingly expansive interpretations of existing statutory authority to try to do things through administrative channels when it became clearer that the filibuster was preventing them from doing them through normal channels. The reason I think this is slightly different than just the normal case of gridlock without the filibuster is that it allows presidents a pretty strong rhetorical ploy, one that they’ve used repeatedly and one that seems to resonate which is they wouldn’t even give this an up or down vote. Right? A mere 41 senators is preventing this from happening, and you saw both George W. Bush and Barack Obama make significant use of precisely those rhetorical tropes. Right?

They wouldn’t give them an up or down vote, and it was just 41 senators engaged in mindless obstruction. That I think allows presidents to make a stronger case to the public that, “Hey, you should trust me with this power instead”, and I think we’ve seen presidents doing that, and so I think the filibuster, I think some senators think of it as protecting certain senatorial prerogatives and to some extent, it does, but it also costs their institution something pretty significant and I’m not sure that a lot of members in the senate have fully internalized that.

Katherine : Is there a future in which congress is once again or I guess once again might not be right. Is there a future which congress is liked and admired? What would a popular congress look like? That’s my last question to you.

Josh Chafetz: I guess one thing I would say is I find it highly unlikely that there’s a future in which congress is really widely liked and admired again because it turns out, people just don’t like seeing messy processes, and congress is messy, is inevitably messy. You’ve got two large bodies of people who are going to disagree with each other about certain pretty significant things. It’s never going to look pretty, but I think there are potential futures in which congress is certainly more admired than it is now, and I think part of that just depends on how or it largely depends on how successfully it uses the tools that it has available. The theme of this book is that it has all of these tools. It is often engaged in using those tools, and then the question is just “How well is it engaged in using them?”, so how well does it do its oversight function?

In particular, if you have as we currently do a president who is very unpopular, who has approval ratings that are shockingly low for an early first term president, does congress stand up to that president in various ways? If it chooses to hold hearings, how well does it construct those hearings so as to make a public case for trusting it as opposed to trusting the president? Those are things that are under its control, and if you look at a recent high point of public esteem for congress, it’s in the immediate aftermath of Watergate where you’ve had a very unpopular president and you had a congress who stood up against him, and you’ve had a situation which congress publicly constructed an image of itself that held public hearings. It engaged with the public. It released information to the public in various ways, and that not only resulted in obviously in Nixon’s removal from office or his resignation from office before he was removed, but also resulted in a increased in the public prestige according to congress.

Congress then used that increasing public prestige to pass various statutes over the next few years that limited the executive in various ways going forward, things like the Ethics in Government Act. It started requiring confirmation of various White House officials that hadn’t required senate confirmation up to that point, so there was a way that there’s all kinds of intelligence reform that comes out of that period with the church commission and its report, and then the Intelligence Oversight Act. There are ways in which congress can behave publicly that then increases its trust that then leads it to be able to assert more authority vis-à-vis the other branches, and in some sense, an unpopular president is a gift to a congress that might want to do that, and then the question will be, “How congress uses that gift?”

Katherine : Thank you very much, Josh Chafetz for talking with us about your new book, ‘Congress’s Constitution’.

Josh Chafetz: My pleasure. Thanks for having me.

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“Don’t Panic” Banco Popular Tells Employees After Stock Crashes Most On Record

It is increasingly likely that Italy (which has been busy bailing out various insolvent banks while pretending it isn’t) won’t be the first nation to try out Europe’s new BRRD “bail-in” insolvency directive. Instead, that honor may go to Spain where the sixth-largest bank, Banco Popular plunged the most in 28 years amid investor concerns that the bad debt-laden bank may have to liquidate as neither a buyer nor a new capital raise appear likely.

As discussed yesterday, the underlying problem with Popular, as with most European banks, is familiar: the bank has been unable to sell €37 billion of nonperforming property loans fast enough, and is racing to find a partner after Spain’s Economy Minister Luis de Guindos declined to consider a public bailout, while a capital increase has faced resistance from existing shareholders. The bank has said previously it could extend a June 10 deadline for binding takeover offers. So far none have emerged, which has prompted concerns about a deposit run, and – in circular fashion – sent the bank’s asset prices crashing, which in turn is prompting depositors to pull even more money out of the bank, and so on…

But besides depositors, the plunge appears to have also spooked the bank’s own employees, and today Spain’s Expansion paper reports that Banco Popular Chairman Emilio Saracho sent a letter to staff assuring them the bank remains solvent after Friday’s stock crash. In the letter, Saracho says the bank is facing “difficult circumstances, but we’re making the greatest effort to overcome them.” Furthermore, the Chairman says that Popular has a number of options, citing a possible capital increase or corporate deal. What he didn’t say is that the reason why the stock is where it is, is because the market no longer believes either of these options is credible.

More from the latter, courtesy of Expansion, google translated:

“From the management we are aware that the information that is being published affects the work and the spirit of each one of you, but our obligation as professionals is to focus on the day to day and on the clients, since the activity of the bank must continue as it has so far” begins the statement, whose target is the Professional Association of Directors Banco Popular.

 

The central message of this letter sent yesterday is the following: “Banco Popular remains solvent and has positive net worth”.

 

Our bank is in a difficult situation,” says Saracho. “For this reason and in order to meet the regulatory requirements that the European Central Bank demands for next year and guarantee our strength and future, we are working on different alternatives.

 

“Our customers and our shareholders are the most important thing for us, and for this reason we must send them a message of confidence and confidence that we are making every effort to overcome this situation,” the letter concludes.

In short, Saracho urged the bank’s group of 1,800 managers to continue working hard; saying business activity should go on as normal, and that it was important to instill confidence in clients and shareholders. Unfortunately, one look at the bank’s recent surge in default risk as seen in its senior bond CDS, suggests that “those who panic first”, may be doing the smart thing…

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Seattle the Latest to Propose Terrible Soda Taxes: New at Reason

SodaSeattle lawmakers are expected to vote early next week on a citywide soda tax that would add more than $2.50 to the cost of a twelve-pack of soda. The tax would undoubtedly drive consumers—at least those Seattle residents with cars and Costco memberships—to buy more groceries in the city’s suburbs.

But Seattle’s proposed tax is just one cog in the larger misguided, ongoing campaign against soda by lawmakers in this country.

After years of defeats, supporters of soda taxes have scored several recent victories and are increasingly on the attack. Food policy expert (and Seattle resident) Baylen Linnekin details the many problems of such movements.

View this article.

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The Indestructible Idea of the Basic Income: New at Reason

Dollar signAndy Stern is a former president of the Service Employees International Union. Charles Murray may be America’s most prominent right-wing critic of the welfare state. So when they appeared onstage together in Washington, D.C., last fall to discuss the basic income—the idea of keeping people out of poverty by giving them regular unconditional cash payments—the most striking thing about the event was that they kept agreeing with each other.

It isn’t necessarily surprising that Stern and Murray both back some version of the concept. It has supporters across the political spectrum, from Silicon Valley capitalists to academic communists. But this diverse support leads naturally to diverse versions of the proposal, not all of which are compatible with one another. Some people want to means-test the checks so that only Americans below a certain income threshold receive them; others want a fully universal program, given without exceptions. Some want to replace the existing welfare state; others want to tack a basic income onto it. There have been tons of suggestions for how to fund the payments and for how big they should be. When it comes to the basic income, superficial agreement is common but actual convergence can be fleeting, writes Jesse Walker.

View this article.

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Five Reasons Why America Is About To Become A Very Conservative Country

Authored by Daniel Lang via SHTFplan.com,

For generations, we’ve seen the political landscape in this country teeter back and forth between the Left and the Right. Usually about every 8 years or so, whichever political party is dominating Congress, the Executive Branch, and the state legislatures, is kicked out by voters and replaced with the other political party.

However, there’s something very different going on this time around. Donald Trump’s ascent to the oval office represents a major shift in our society and culture, and I’m not talking about the intermittent shuffle of politicians that we see every few years. Instead, the pendulum is about to swing very hard to the right.

I think that the political landscape in America is going to be drifting towards conservatism for the next 20-40 years. Though it may not be identical to what we view as conservative today, and it certainly won’t be the phony neoconservatism that dominated the past, it will be right-wing nonetheless. Here’s why:

1. The Supreme Court Is About To Change

President Trump has already chosen one Supreme Court justice, and there’s a good chance that he’s going to wind up choosing several more (much to the dismay of the Left). Because of their advanced age, we may see three more Supreme Court justices retire or die over the next four to eight years, two of whom lean to the left.

If Trump lasts two terms, we’re definitely going to see a Supreme Court that is dominated by conservatives for the next 20-30 years. So even when liberals take back Congress and the presidency on occasion, many of their most radical ideas won’t be able to take hold for many years.

2. Immigration Is Going To Decline

The percentage of the population that is foreign born hasn’t been this high since the early 1900’s, and most of those immigrants are liberal. That’s why our loose borders, combined with The Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965, have probably done more to bolster the ranks of the Left than any other law.

But just as our nation’s political landscape tends to swing back and forth between the Left and the Right, so to does number of immigrants in America. In the short term, we can expect people like Trump to restrict the border and maybe pass laws that will decrease immigration to some degree.

But there’s a long term trend to consider as well, because the election of Trump likely represents a turning point for our society. Considering how crucial his immigration stance was to his victory, it’s clear that a growing number of Americans want the border tightened up, and the number of immigrants moving here to decrease. And rest assured that in the near future, there will be more conservatives voting for politicians who will try to lower immigration rates, because…

3. The Next Generation Is Incredibly Conservative

Over the years we’ve seen each generation of Americans become a little more liberal than the last, but that’s about to change. According to a study from last year, Generation Z, which represents kids born after the year 2000, is the most conservative generation since World War Two. To give you an idea of just how right-wing the next generation is, when asked if they are “quite conservative,” 14% of teenagers say they are, compared to just 2% of Millennials. That’s a mind boggling shift, from one generation to the next.

4. Liberal Birth Rates Are Declining

The Left is about to pay a huge price for denigrating the family and traditional gender roles for so many years. Because liberal women tend to be more career minded and wait longer to have children, they often have fewer kids over the course of their lives. That’s why liberal states always have lower birth rates than conservative states.

All of the states with a birth rate of of 60 or less per 1000 people are liberal, and all of the states with a birth rate of 70 or more per 1000 people are conservative. That may not sound drastic, but consider that these states still have a sizeable mix of conservatives and liberals. Even the most liberal states have millions of conservative residents and vice versa, which offsets the results. If ideology is really driving birth rates, then liberals are probably having very very few children. They’re probably not reaching the minimum replacement rate of 2.1 children per mother.

When you consider how many values kids learn from their parents and carry into adulthood, it’s obvious that the Left has a serious demographic problem. The only way they’ve been able to create more liberals, is through immigration and through indoctrination in the school system. Unfortunately for the Left, they’re not going to have a stranglehold on our schools for much longer either.

5. Leftist Academia Is In Serious Trouble

From Kindergarten to college, our schools are breeding grounds for liberal ideas. That’s become abundantly clear in recent years, as we’ve seen the horrifying rise of political correctness and social justice beliefs on college campuses. These institutions are little more than indoctrination centers for the Left.

But this isn’t going to go on for much longer. We have a whole generation of kids who were buried in over a trillion dollars worth of debt, just so they could get worthless liberal arts degrees that won’t ever help them get a job. They paid tens of thousands of dollars to be indoctrinated by liberal professors, before going back home to live with their parents.

That’s why student loans constitute a bubble in our economy, and once it pops, colleges are going to have to cut back on many classes that don’t actually increase the earning power of students. Coincidentally, the fields of study that harbor the most liberal professors, are the ones that don’t help most students get jobs, like the arts, humanities, liberal arts, gender studies, etc. Someday soon, colleges are going to be forced to trim the fat, and many of these Marxist professors and diversity administrators are going to get the axe. Their positions are incredibly superfluous.

As for the leftists public schools, let’s not forget that the number of kids being homeschooled is growing rapidly, and most of their parents are conservatives. They’re raising a new generation that isn’t going to be brainwashed by government run schools.

And let’s not forget that the mainstream media, which has been largely wed to the left, is dying. So basically, every institution that the Left uses to teach its ideas, from the media to academia, is slowly crumbling away.

In summation, everything liberals have relied on to bolster their ranks, propagate their ideas, and pass their laws, are failing. So there shouldn’t be any doubt. Over the next few decades, America is going to become a very conservative place.

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Mapping The U.S. Zip Codes Where “The Rent Is Too Damn High”

As America’s young snowflakes graduate their liberal bastions of higher education and get ready to migrate around the U.S., at least those who were lucky enough to actually find a job after graduation and avoid the embarrassment of moving back home with mom and dad, we thought it would be helpful to take a look at where they might get the most safe space square footage for their money. 

And while it may come as a complete ‘shock’ to our readers, those moving to New York and California will seemingly have the hardest time covering monthly rent payments according to the following map from Rent Cafe:

 

In fact, aside from one zip code in Boston, every single one of the top 20 most expensive zip codes in the country come from a couple of square miles of real estate in Manhattan and San Francisco.

 

Meanwhile, the more affordable areas seem to be concentrated in the ‘Red States’ in the southeast and midwest.

 

Of course, it’s not just high rents that people in NY and CA have to contend with as many of the states with the highest rents also have the highest state income tax rates. 

Taxes by State

 

All of which probably helps explains why folks in New York City, Los Angeles and San Francisco are packing up and moving out by the 1,000s.  Not surprisingly, America’s ‘domestic migrants’ are flocking to areas with a lower cost of living, lower/no state income taxes, less regulations and higher job growth (aka “Red” states). 

Domestic Migration

 

Could it be that while the enlightened citizens of NY and CA love to ‘preach’ their liberal policies they prefer to ‘practice’ their citizenship in states that afford them the economic benefits of conservatism?

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From Debt Peons To Wage Slaves – Are Students A ‘Class’?

Authored by Michael Hudson, via NakedCapitalism.com,

Students usually don’t think of themselves as a class. They seem “pre-class,” because they have not yet entered the labor force. They can only hope to become part of the middle class after they graduate. And that means becoming a wage earner – what impolitely is called the working class.

But as soon as they take out a student debt, they become part of the economy. They are in this sense a debtor class. But to be a debtor, one needs a means to pay – and the student’s means to pay is out of the wages and salaries they may earn after they graduate. And after all, the reason most students get an education is so that they can qualify for a middle-class job.

The middle class in America consists of the widening sector of the working class that qualifies for bank loans – not merely usurious short-term payday loans, but a lifetime of debt. So the middle class today is a debtor class.

Shedding crocodile tears for the slow growth of U.S. employment in the post-2008 doldrums (the “permanent Obama economy” in which only the banks were bailed out, not the economy), the financial class views the role industry and the economy at large as being to pay its employees enough so that they can take on an exponentially rising volume of debt. Interest and fees (late fees and penalties now yield credit card companies more than they receive in interest charges) are soaring, leaving the economy of goods and services languishing.

Although money and banking textbooks say that all interest (and fees) are a compensation for risk, any banker who actually takes a risk is quickly fired. Banks don’t take risks. That’s what the governments are for. (Socializing the risk, privatizing the profits.) Anticipating that the U.S. economy may be unable to recover under the weight of the junk mortgages and other bad debts that the Obama administration left on the books in 2008, banks insisted that the government guarantee all student debt. They also insisted that the government guarantees the financial gold-mine buried in such indebtedness: the late fees that accumulate. So whether students actually succeed in becoming wage-earners or not, the banks will receive payments in today’s emerging fictitious “as if” economy. The government will pay the banks “as if” there is actually a recovery.

And if there were to be a recovery, then it would mean that the banks were taking a risk – a big enough risk to justify the high interest rates charge on student loans.

This is simply a replay of what banks have negotiated for real estate mortgage lending. Students who do succeed in getting a job hope to start a family, or at least joining the middle class. The most typical criterion of middle-class life in today’s world (apart from having a college education) is to own a home. But almost nobody can buy a home without getting a mortgage. And the price of such a mortgage is to pay up to 43 percent of one’s income for thirty years, that is, one’s prospective working life (in today’s as-if world that assumes full employment, not just a gig economy).

Banks know how unlikely it is that workers actually will be able to earn enough to carry the costs of their education and real estate debt. The costs of housing are so high, the price of education is so high, the amount of debt that workers must pay off the top of every paycheck is so high that American labor is priced out of world markets (except for military hardware sold to the Saudis and other U.S. protectorates). So the banks insist that the government pretends that housing as well as education loans not involve any risk for bankers.

The Federal Housing Authority guarantees mortgages that absorb up to the afore-mentioned 43 percent of the applicant’s income. Income is not growing these days, but job-loss is. Formerly middle-class labor is being downsized to minimum-wage labor (MacDonald’s and other fast foods) or “gig” labor (Uber). Here too, the fees mount up rapidly when there are defaults – all covered by the government, as if it is this compensates the banks for risks that the government itself bears.

From Debt Peons to Wage Slaves 

In view of the fact that a college education is a precondition for joining the working class (except for billionaire dropouts), the middle class is a debtor class – so deep in debt that once they manage to get a job, they have no leeway to go on strike, much less to protest against bad working conditions. This is what Alan Greenspan described as the “traumatized worker effect” of debt.

Do students think about their future in these terms? How do they think of their place in the world?

Students are the new NINJAs: No Income, No Jobs, No Assets. But their parents have assets, and these are now being grabbed, even from retirees. Most of all, the government has assets – the power to tax (mainly labor these days), and something even better: the power to simply print money (mainly Quantitative Easing to try and re-inflate housing, stock and bond prices these days). Most students hope to become independent of their parents. But burdened by debt and facing a tough job market, they are left even more dependent. That’s why so many have to keep living at home.

The problem is that as they do get a job and become independent, they remain dependent on the banks. And to pay the banks, they must be even more abjectly dependent on their employers.

It may be enlightening to view matters from the vantage point of bankers. After all, they have $1.3 trillion in student loan claims. In fact, despite the fact that college tuitions are soaring throughout the United States even more than health care (financialized health care, not socialized health care), the banks often end up with more education expense than the colleges. That is because any interest rate is a doubling time, and student loan rates of, say, 7 percent mean that the interest payments double the original loan value in just 10 years. (The Rule of 72 provides an easy way to calculate doubling times of interest-bearing debt. Just divide 72 by the interest rate, and you get the doubling time.)

A fatal symbiosis has emerged between banking and higher education in America. Bankers sit on the boards of the leading universities – not simply by buying their way in as donors, but because they finance the transformation of universities into real estate companies. Columbia and New York University are major real estate holders in New York City. Like the churches, they pay no property or income tax, being considered to play a vital social role. But from the bankers’ vantage point, their role is to provide a market for debt whose magnitude now outstrips even that of credit card debt!

Citibank in New York City made what has been accused of being a sweetheart deal with New York University, which steers incoming students to it to finance their studies with loans. In today’s world a school can charge as much for an education as banks are willing to lend students – and banks are willing to lend as much as governments will guarantee to cover, no questions asked. So the bankers on the school boards endorse bloated costs of education, knowing that however much more universities make, the bankers will receive just as much in interest and penalties.

It is the same thing with housing, of course. However much the owner of a home receives when he sells it, the bank will make an even larger sum of money on the interest charges on the mortgage. That is why all the growth in the U.S. economy is going to the FIRE sector, owned mainly by the One Percent.

Under these terms, a “more educated society” does not mean a more employable labor force. It means a less employable society, because more and more wage and consumer income is used not to buy goods and services, not to eat out in restaurants or buy the products of labor, but to pay the financial sector and its allied rentier class. A more educated society under these rules is simply a more indebted society, an economy succumbing to debt deflation, austerity and unemployment except at minimum-wage levels.

For half a century Americans imagined themselves getting richer and richer by going into debt to buy their own homes and educate their children. Their riches have turned out to be riches for the banks, bondholders and other creditors, not for the debtors. What used to be applauded as “the middle class” turns out to be simply an indebted working class.

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“Sell Economic Ignorance, Buy Gold”

"We live in an age of advanced monetary surrealism…." is how Incrementum's Ronald-Peter Stoeferle and Mark J. Valek begin their latest epic tome on the precious metals market "In Gold We Trust."

 In Q1 2017 alone, the largest central banks created the equivalent of almost USD 1,000 bn. worth of central bank money ex nihilo. Naturally the fresh currency was not used to fund philanthropic projects but to purchase financial securities1. Although this ongoing liquidity supernova has temporarily created an uneasy calm in financial markets, we are strongly convinced that the real costs of this monetary madness will reveal themselves down the line.

We believe that the monetary tsunami created in the past years, consisting of a flood of central bank money and new debt, has created a dangerous illusion: the illusion of a carefree present at the expense of a fragile future. The frivolity displayed by many investors is for example reflected by record-low volatility in equities, which have acquired the nimbus of being without alternative, and is also highlighted by the minimal spreads on corporate and government bonds. Almost a decade of zero and negative interest rates has atomised any form of risk aversion.

In the past years, rate cuts and other monetary stimuli have affected mainly asset price inflation. Last year, we wrote: “Sooner or later, the reflation measures will take hold, and asset price inflation will spill over into consumer prices. Given that consumer price inflation cannot be fine-tuned by the central banks at their discretion, a prolonged cycle of price inflation may now be looming ahead.” 2016 might have been the year when price inflation turned the corner. However, the hopes of an economic upswing due to Trumponomics and the strong US dollar have caused inflation pressure to decrease for the time being. Upcoming recession fears resulting in a U-turn by the Fed, and the consequential depreciation of the US dollar would probably finalise the entry into a new age of inflation. This will be the moment in which gold will begin to shine again.

The following chart shows the similarities between the 1970s and the status quo. The analysis reveals the fact that the bear market since 2011 has been following largely the same structure and depth as the mid-cycle correction from 1974 to 1976. However, we can see that the duration of both corrections diverges significantly.

Not only the absolute, but also the relative development is important for a comprehensive assessment of the status quo of the gold market. Along with gold, silver, and mining shares, industrial metals such as zinc, nickel, copper and energy commodities (especially coal and oil) marked stellar performances last year. All of this happened in an environment where the US dollar climbed to a 14-year high. We regard this as a remarkable development and as a prime example of a bull market, whose starting gun has not been heard yet by the majority of investors.

"Sell economic ignorance; buy gold." – Tim Price

We consider a bullish stock market currently as the most significant opportunity cost for gold. Therefore, a clear break-out of the gold price should only be occurring amid a stagnating or weaker equity market. If we now compare the gold price performance with the development of equity prices, we can see that the relative weakness of gold seems to be slowly coming to an end. Last year we had already noticed that the intensity of the upward trend had declined significantly. After almost five years of underperformance relative to the broad equity market, the tables might slowly be turning now in favour of gold.

In a historical context, the relative valuation of commodities to equities seems extremely low. In relation to the S&P500, the GSCI commodity index is currently trading at the lowest level in 50 years. Also, the ratio sits significantly below the long-term median of 4.1. Following the notion of mean reversion, we should be seeing attractive investment opportunities.

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Key topics and takeaways of the full report include:

  • High expectations of Trump's growth policy dampened the gold price increase in 2016 – Still up 8.5% in 2016 and 10.2% since Jan. 2017
  • The further development of the normalization of monetary policy in the US will be the litmus test for the US economy.
  • Bitcoin: Digital gold or fool's gold?
  • White, Gray and Black Swans and their consequences for the gold price
  • Exclusive Interview with Dr. Judy Shelton (Economic advisor to Donald Trump) about a possible remonetisation of gold
  • 5 Reasons why the gold bull market will continue

Full Incrementum report below (note the complete 170-page version is available here)

via http://ift.tt/2qJOgnt Tyler Durden