iftttwall

We first met “The Dude” in March of 2016: no, not Jeffrey Lebowski, but an unknown HFT algo which would step in during times of Turkish market stress and bid up stocks with reckless abandon. Recall:

“There’s a giant bull in the [Turkey stock market] china shop,” exclaims one trader, but (unsually for Turkey), “nobody knows anything for sure” about who he, she, or it is. As Bloomberg reports, a mystery investor who first appeared a year and a half ago with $450 million of bets on a single day, almost double the market average, is now executing major transactions with increasing frequency, scaring away competitors who can’t figure out when he or she will strike next, traders and bankers said.

At least one European bank’s clients have stopped taking short-term positions in Turkish stocks after concluding the investor is using an algorithmic system in which complex formulas decide trades, while others are avoiding the market until they have more information, a person familiar with the matter said.

“Herif,” or “the dude,” has helped lift the average daily trading volume on the Borsa Istanbul almost 8 percent this year, compared with a 15 percent decline on the main exchange in Warsaw and a 27 percent plunge in Moscow, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

While little was known about the source of these buying sprees, whoever it was had skipped from one local brokerage to the next honing his system and had turned the latest, Yatirim Finansman, into the biggest net buyer on the market by far.

As a result, Yatirim Finansman became well known to Istanbul traders: starting in 2016, it became the talk of the town for its aggressive trades which singlehandedly steered the direction of the stock market, including moves right before last year’s referendum. Traders started referring to the mystery investor or investors, whose identity has never been revealed, as “the Dude.”

Nearly two and a half years later, “The Dude” is back with a vengeance because as Bloomberg reports this morning, a single brokerage in Istanbul – the same one that the mystery trader used during his 2016 rampage – “has been placing outsize bets on Turkish stocks at a time when less adventurous investors are bracing for a crisis.”

Yatirim Finansman was a net buyer of 565 million liras ($105 million) in equities this week, by far the largest bet on the market in either direction and almost tripling the second-most active buyer, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s helped to make the equity gauge a major outlier, up by 3 percent even as the lira plunged by about 6 percent to record lows and bond yields surged to all-time highs.

The mystery algo has returned at a time of economic in Turkey turmoil amid collapsing diplomatic relations between Ankara and Washington over the imprisoned American past Andrew Brunson who has been jailed in Turkey for two years, and whose continued house arrest resulted in sanctions being announced last week against Ankara by the Trump administration.

And while the threat of successively more damaging economic sanctions should Turkey continue to hold him, coupled with soaring inflation as a result of Erdogan’s prohibition for the central bank to raise interest rates, has sent almost every asset class in Turkey tumbling… except stocks. The surprising resilience of the Borsa Istanbul in the context of the crashing Turkish lira and record high interest rates is shown below.

Like in 2016, it remains unclear whether the “Dude’s” orders on Yatirim Finansman’s come from one individual or a group of investors, and it’s also unclear whether the source of the flows now is the same as before. Citing the confidentiality of its clients, Yatirim Finansman predictably declined to comment,

However, what we do know is that it is unlikely that the “trader” is an ordinary human. The former CEO of Yatirim, Seniz Yarcan, provided some details into the trades in 2016, telling Dunya newspaper that the abnormally large trades were “not an investor, but a big, new fund investor profile that trades with algorithms.” This was confirmed at the time by Isik Okte, an investment strategist at TEB Invest/BNP Paribas:

Borsa Istanbul moved its servers to a new data center [in 2015] in the hope of attracting business from automated traders before it restarts its long-delayed initial public offering. HFT firms often place their servers in the same center to get the fastest possible connection to an exchange’s computers. Okte said he’s convinced the unknown investor is doing just that.

“This algo guy just discovered a new market and he’s running his own show because there’s not enough competition, but it will come,” Okte said. “We are in the very early stages, but we know from developed markets that machines always win this game.”

But whoever is behind the HFT algo, they have a clear mandate: keep the market propped up. The bulk of the Dude’s trades this week was directed at the nation’s biggest private bank.

It bought a net 96 million liras worth of shares in Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS. That was followed by investments in petrochemicals producer Petkim, steelmaker Kardemir, defense equipment producer Aselsan and another steelmaker, Erdemir. Its biggest net sales were in Halkbank, a state-run lender facing the prospect of a fine from the U.S., and media conglomerate Dogan Holding.

Another notable divergence: the positive impact of the “Dude” on the local stock market matches that of central banks, and despite being vastly outnumbered, his dominance remains: of 48 Turkish brokerages tracked by Bloomberg, 31 have been net sellers this week.

The biggest net sales came via Is Yatirim, Yapi Kredi and Merrill Lynch. Following Yatirim Finansman on the buying side were Credit Suisse Istanbul and Deutsche Securities.

And just like ordinary investors now praise central banks for propping up markets and making a mockery of price discovery, so the Turks are delighted that “The dude” abides:

The Turkish stock exchange has welcomed the larger trades via Yatirim Finansman and its mystery investors.

“This ‘dude’ is buying from our market, why should we be concerned?” bourse Chairman Himmet Karadag said in an interview with Bloomberg last year. “He is doing good stuff.”

Still, every artificial manipulation can only last so long, and in the case of Turkish stocks, it is only a matter of time before Turkey’s economic collapse overpowers even this remarkable algo. After a 40% plunge this year, Turkish stocks are trading near a nine-year low in dollar terms. But the real risk for Turkey is not whether or not the “Dude” continues soaking up all the selling, but whether that “Other Dude”, executive president Erdogan, remains in charge of the economy, the central bank and ultimately, the market, which has just sent the Turkish lira to a new all time low, plunging more than 30% YTD.

via RSS https://ift.tt/2M9Ejyo Tyler Durden

Bloomberg reports that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is intensifying its scrutiny of Tesla’s public statements in the wake of Elon Musk’s tweet Tuesday about taking the electric-car company private. “funding secured.”

Additionally, SEC enforcement attorneys in the San Francisco office were already gathering general information about Tesla’s public pronouncements on manufacturing goals and sales targets, according to the people who asked not to be named because the review is private.

All the gains from yesterday’s exuberant tweet and headline-fest are gone.

Bloomberg notes that the SEC inquiry is preliminary and won’t necessarily lead to anything more formal.

Tesla still hasn’t disclosed any sources of financing for the deal and no one has stepped forward publicly to say they’re backing the plan.

Once again Tesla bonds were right first…

We notice Musk is a little quieter than normal on Twitter today…

 

via RSS https://ift.tt/2AY5CGU Tyler Durden

Authored by John Stossel via Townhall.com,

Sen. Bernie Sanders is all over the internet!

New York Magazine says he is “quietly building a digital media empire.”

Mic.com calls it “one of the most powerful progressive media outfits in America.”

This matters because bettors rank Sanders one of the top four Democratic presidential contenders.

I resent Sanders’ “empire” because it pushes bad ideas, yet his videos are viewed more often than mine. His videos have been seen almost a billion times.

Some are just recordings of him making noisy speeches, ranting about how Republican policies hurt Americans. For example, “Tens of thousands of them will die” if Obamacare is repealed. (He ignores the fact that more will live if the economy is allowed to grow.)

Other Sanders videos are edited, produced pieces, much like videos that I make.

One powerful one begins with a President Trump speech where the president recites the song “The Snake,” in which a woman nurses a snake back to health — only to have it bite her. “You knew damn well I was a snake before you took me in!” shouts the president. He was arguing against loose immigration controls.

But the video cuts to Trump calling criminals “animals,” and an “expert” says Trump is using “the same kind of language that the Nazis used.”

The video never mentions that when Trump said “animals,” he was talking about MS-13.

A recurring Sanders video theme is that Trump supporters are “faces of greed” who scheme to get even richer by doing things like abolishing the estate tax.

Sanders never mentions that the estate tax taxes money that had already been taxed; it’s double taxation.

He could still argue against repealing it, but he ought to be fair.

Many Sanders videos demand that government make college free.

His staff interview themselves.

May Ayad, a Sanders associate media producer, tells us, “It’s not just one or two people saying, ‘I can’t afford to go to college.’ This is like the majority of college students in the entire nation!”

Winn Decker, research intern for the Senate Budget Committee, whines, “Student loans kept me from doing things like purchase a home.”

Sanders staff assistant Terrel Champion tells viewers, “Somebody has to foot the bill. The government should assume that responsibility!”

There’s no mention of how existing government subsidies already raised the price of tuition, enabling it to grow faster than the rate of inflation. There’s also not a peep about how Sanders’ own wife bankrupted a college in Vermont.

It’s just: Government must pay more!

Government should take responsibility for your health care, too, says a Sanders video that describes MSNBC anchor Ali Velshi as a “Canadian capitalist” who says, “Nowhere on Earth is there a free health insurance market that works.”

The video looks like a debate between Velshi and Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, but it’s edited so that Jordon doesn’t get to say much.

It’s easy to win an argument if you barely let the other guy speak.

There’s also no mention of the fact that the Urban Institute says Sanders’ “Medicare for All” plan would cost the federal government $32 trillion between 2017 and 2026.

Maybe the biggest theme of Sanders’ videos is the wealth gap, which Bernie says “is not only immoral (but) causes suffering for the working families (because) the poor are getting poorer.”

But that’s just wrong. The poor are not getting poorer. The wealth gap doesn’t cause suffering. Yes, rich people got richer, but the poor and middle class got richer, too. Sanders never acknowledges that.

Sanders posts a new economically ignorant video most every day.

He says it would be “easy” to have free health care, free college, a living wage. How will it all be paid for? Simple. Raise taxes.

One Sanders video shows rich people shouting, “Tax me!” and “I should be paying more!”

So pay more! No one’s stopping you! Just don’t demand that everyone else pay more.

Socialists think government is the solution to every problem. They also pretend that what government provides is free.

Sanders’ videos would be just a joke if millions didn’t watch.

via RSS https://ift.tt/2Olcqjw Tyler Durden

The former British spy who used Kremlin sources to assemble a Clinton-funded anti-Trump dossier, which the Obama administration used to spy on the Trump campaign, had extensive contacts with the Department of Justice’s #4 official right before the FBI opened its Trump-Russia probe in the summer of 2016, according to new emails recently turned over to Congressional investigators. 

That official, Bruce Ohr, was demoted twice after the DOJ’s Inspector General discovered that he lied about his involvement with opposition research firm Fusion GPS co-founder Glenn Simpson, who employed Steele. Ohr’s CIA-linked wife, Nellie, was also  employed by Fusion as part of the firm’s anti-Trump efforts, and had ongoing communications with the ex-UK spy, Christopher Steele as well. 

In short, Steele was much closer to the Obama administration than previously disclosed, and his DOJ contact Bruce Ohr reported directly to Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates – who approved at least one of the FISA warrants to surveil Trump campaign aide Carter Page.

Steele and the Ohrs would have breakfast together on July 30 at the Mayflower Hotel in downtown Washington D.C., while Steele turned in installments of his infamous “dossier” on July 19 and 26. The breakfast also occurred one day before the FBI formally launched operation “Crossfire Hurricane,” the agency’s counterintelligence operation into the Trump campaign. 

“Great to see you and Nellie this morning Bruce,” Steele wrote shortly following their breakfast meeting. “Let’s keep in touch on the substantive issues/s (sic). Glenn is happy to speak to you on this if it would help.”

Calendar notations and handwritten notes indicate Ohr followed up on Steele’s offer and met with Simpson on Aug. 22, 2016. Ohr’s notes indicate Simpson identified several “possible intermediaries” between the Trump campaign and Russia.

One was identified as a “longtime associate of Trump” who “put together several real estate deals for Russian investigators to purchase Trump properties.” Another was a Russian apparently tied to Carter Page, Ohr’s note of his Simpson contact indicated.

Steele offered Ohr many other theories over their contacts, including a now widely discredited one that the Russian Alfa Bank had a computer server “as a link” to the Trump campaign, Ohr’s notes show. 

…

In all, Ohr’s notes, emails and texts identify more than 60 contacts with Steele and/or Simpson, some dating to 2002 in London. But the vast majority occurred during the 2016-2017 timeframe that gave birth to one of the most controversial counterintelligence probes in recent American history. –The Hill

Disturbingly, Steele appears to have been lobbying for a Putin-linked Russian oligarch and Paul Manafort associate, Oleg Deripaska, while the former UK spy was also involved in the anti-Trump effort – asking Bruce Ohr to “monitor” Deripaska’s efforts to obtain a Visa to attend an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in the US. 

[Perhaps this explains why the Obama administration granted Russian Trump-hating lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya – a Fusion GPS associate – a special visa under “extraordinary circumstances” to enter the US and participate in the Trump Tower meeting and a DOJ lawsuit against her Russian client, Denis Katsyv.]

Steele asked Ohr, the #4 official at DOJ, to “monitor” any developments in Deripaska’s visa case. Ohr said he would. Was Steele working for Deripaska? His attorney, Adam Waldman, registered under FARA for his work in lobbying for Deripaska’s visa. https://t.co/EgwicnsyHT pic.twitter.com/AkIAxoRltg

— Chuck Ross (@ChuckRossDC) August 9, 2018

Emails in 2016 between former British spy Christopher Steele and Justice Department official Bruce Ohr suggest Steele was deeply concerned about the legal status of a Putin-linked Russian oligarch, and at times seemed to be advocating on the oligarch’s behalf, in the same time period Steele worked on collecting the Russia-related allegations against Donald Trump that came to be known as the Trump dossier. The emails show Steele and Ohr were in frequent contact, that they intermingled talk about Steele’s research and the oligarch’s affairs, and that Glenn Simpson, head of the dirt-digging group Fusion GPS that hired Steele to compile the dossier, was also part of the ongoing conversation. –Washington Examiner

Dossier author Christopher Steele was likely working for Putin-linked Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska at the exact same time he was telling Hillary and the press that Trump’s alleged ties to Russia were treason. https://t.co/jEXY2NM5hg

— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) August 9, 2018

With recent comments by President Trump and his attorney Rudy Giuliani suggesting there’s evidence the American public hasn’t seen, one has to wonder what we need to “stay tuned” for… 

This is an illegally brought Rigged Witch Hunt run by people who are totally corrupt and/or conflicted. It was started and paid for by Crooked Hillary and the Democrats. Phony Dossier, FISA disgrace and so many lying and dishonest people already fired. 17 Angry Dems? Stay tuned!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 9, 2018

via RSS https://ift.tt/2MyjFnQ Tyler Durden

Authored by Justin Raimondo via AntiWar.com,

A free market would defeat the would-be censors…

The theme of today’s column is suppression – of antiwar voices, of news that doesn’t fit into preconceived narratives, and of our very ability to raise our voices in protest.

If you’re paying attention, you’ve probably already heard about the banning from Twitter of anti-interventionist author and former US diplomat Peter van Buren, a whistleblower whose book on the Iraq war exposed the lies at the heart of that devilish enterprise. When van Buren tweeted that his tenure at the State Department required him to lie to reporters, and that the paladins of the Fourth Estate were all too ready to passively record these lies as truth, the Twitter brouhaha took on seismic proportions. Several journalists were involved, attacking van Buren for showing them up, and one – Jonathan M. Katz, supposedly a New York Times writer – reported van Buren to the Twitter Authorities for allegedly threatening “violence.” Van Buren did no such thing: it was a mere pretext to get him banned. And ban him they did – for life. His account was scrubbed: years of informative tweets were erased.

There were two other casualties in this little Twitter war: our very own Scott Horton, who joined the fray and was suspended for using the “b-word,” and Daniel MacAdams, the director of the Ron Paul Institute, whose “crime” was retweeting Scott’s contribution to the discussion.

This occurred in tandem with the purge of Alex Jones from Facebook, YouTube, and Apple platforms – an obviously coordinated effort undertaken to make an example of the infamous performance artist masquerading as a conspiracy theorist.

All this wasn’t good enough for Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Connecticut), who demanded to know if the plan was to only take down “one web site.” No doubt he has a whole list of sites he’d like to take down. Even more ominously, it was revealed that a direct threat had been made to these companies by Sen. Mark Warner (D-Virginia), who sent out a memo listing all the ways the government could crack down on Big Data if they refuse to go along with cleansing the internet of “divisive” material.

So much for the “libertarian” argument that these companies and the platforms they run are “private,” and not connected in any way to the governmental Leviathan. This is the kneejerk response of outlets like Reasonmagazine, but it’s simply not a valid position to take. The Communications Decency Act immunizes these companies against any torts that may arise from activities conducted on their platforms: they can’t be sued or prosecuted for defamation, libel, or indeed for any criminal activity that is generated by these Internet domains. That’s because they claim to be mere “carriers,” like the old phone company, and therefore they can’t be held responsible for conversations, postings, or other online materials that involve illegal or otherwise dubious actors.

On the other hand, content-providers like Fox News, CNN, and Antiwar.com are not so privileged: this site, for example, can be sued or held legally responsible by the authorities for any illegal activities supposedly generated on or by Antiwar.com.

This two-tiered system is responsible for the cartel-like conditions enjoyed by Facebook, Google, Twitter, and the rest of the Silicon Valley crowd. The vast wealth poured into this new technology by investors buoyed by historically low interest rates, plus the special government-granted advantages granted to them by their friends in Washington, has resulted in the enrichment of Big Data beyond the dreams of Croesus.

In short, Silicon Valley is a creature of the State.

In recognition of the government-granted privileges handed out to the Zuckerbergs of this world, the lords of the Internet have agreed to become the regime’s enforcers. That’s why poor Alex Jones is out in the cold, and others will soon follow.

So what’s the solution? Should we turn the Internet over to the government to be run as a public utility? That would only make the problem much worse: censorship by the government would then be direct, rather than masked as it is now.

The answer to this seeming conundrum is simply to abolish the special privileges enjoyed by the Silicon Valley crowd: make them legally liable for the consequences of their actions, just like everyone else. Abolish the Communications “Decency” Act and start all over with a free market bill: no special privileges for anyone, and a level playing field at last.

This would eliminate Big Data’s deal with the devil, and put them on the same level as their would-be competitors. The developing Big Data cartel would be smashed, and new companies would arise to challenge the hegemony of the Zuckerbergs.

Stop suppressing the competition, get the government out of it – and let the market decide.

Speaking of suppression: reports that Iranian President Rouhani has agreed to President’s Trump’s offer to meet “without preconditions” – see here and here – have received little to no attention in the mainstream media. The “alternative” media has been similarly lacking. Indeed, some ostensible “anti-interventionists” have been so busy correctly denouncing the decision by the administration to withdraw from the Iran deal that they have taken up the Iranian hardliners’ cry of “no deal with Trump”!

It is beyond crazy that some supporters of the Iran deal are now so embittered that they sound like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. But that’s where we are.

Given the stakes – the possibility of a horrific war that would make the Iraq conflict look like a picnic – this is absolute lunacy, but hardly unexpected given the political atmosphere. On the one hand, the Republicans have never been supportive of any rapprochement with Iran, and on the other hand the Democrats and their far-left hangers-on don’t want to give any credit to the Trump campaign even if it means war. That leaves Trump – who has declared he’d meet with Rouhani with “no preconditions” – and the Iranian moderates pretty much isolated.

Which is just where the War Party wants them to be.

via RSS https://ift.tt/2AXn6mR Tyler Durden

Over the past three years, an unexpected voice of caution has emerged from one of the most legendary families in finance: Lord Jacob Rothschild. 

Readers may recall that as part of the RIT Capital Partners 2014 annual report commentary, the scion of Rothschild family warned that “the geopolitical situation is most dangerous since WWII.” One year later, Jacob Rothschild again warned about the outcome of “what is surely the greatest experiment in monetary policy in the history of the world“, and then again in August 2017 he cautioned that “share prices have in many cases risen to unprecedented levels at a time when economic growth is by no means assured.”

He also issued another warning, which the market has so far blissfully ignored:

The period of monetary accommodation may well be coming to an end. Geopolitical problems remain widespread and are proving increasingly difficult to resolve.

Fast forward to today when in the latest half-year commentary from RIT Capital Partners, Lord Rothschild issued yet another warning, this time focusing on the global economic system that was established after WWII, and which he believes is now in jeopardy. The billionaire banker pointed to the US-China trade war and the Eurozone crisis as the key problems putting economic order at risk.

“In 9/11 and in the 2008 financial crisis, the powers of the world worked together with a common approach. Co-operation today is proving much more difficult. This puts at risk the post-war economic and security order.”

It wasn’t clear if he was referring to the post-war fiat standard that emerged once FDR devalued the dollar relative to gold, and then fixed a price for the yellow metal, a tenuous link that was subsequently destroyed by Nixon who finally took the US off the gold standard, or the primacy of the dollar which emerged as the world’s reserve currency after the end of WWII, but whenever one of the people who profited handsomely from the “post war world order” warns it may be on its last legs, it may be time to worry.

With global risks growing, how is Rothschild positioned? The Lord writes that “in the circumstances our policy is to maintain our limited exposure to quoted equities and to enter into new commitments with great caution” and indeed, in the first half, RIT had a net quoted equity exposure of only 47%, historically low. The reason: the iconic banking family is concerned that the 10-year bullish cycle and market rally could finally be ending.

The cycle is in its tenth positive year, the longest on record. We are now seeing some areas of weaker growth emerge; indeed the IMF has recently predicted some slowdown.

While Rothschild noted that “many of the world’s economies have enjoyed a broad-based acceleration not seen since the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008, with as many as 120 countries seeing stronger growth last year” he also cautioned that “we continue to believe that this is not an appropriate time to add to risk. Current stock market valuations remain high by historical standards, inflated by years of low interest rates and the policy of quantitative easing which is now coming to an end.“

One potential risk is Europe, where debt levels have reached “potentially destructive levels”:

The problems confronting the Eurozone are of concern – both political and economic – given the potentially destructive levels of debt in a number of countries.

There is also the threat that the global trade war escalates substantially from here, as Chinese stocks have learned the hard way:

The likelihood of trade wars has increased tension and the impact on equities has been marked, for example by early July the Shanghai Composite Index had dropped some 22% from its peak in January.

Rothschild also echoed the recent warning from the head of the Indian Central Bank, warning that the shrinking of global dollar liquidity is hurting emerging markets:

Problems are likely to continue in emerging markets, compounded by rising interest rates and the US Fed’s monetary policy which has drained global dollar liquidity. We have already seen the impact on the Turkish and Argentinian currencies.

Finally, Rothschild remains understandably “concerned about geo-political problems including Brexit, North Korea and the Middle East, at a time when populism is spreading globally.“

via RSS https://ift.tt/2vyagpL Tyler Durden

We are sure it’s just a coincidence, but – amid all the trade tensions between US and China – Shanghai customs authorities have suddenly blocked the importations of all US-manufactured Mercedes Benz SUVs.

Reuters reports that, according to a Chinese customs document circulating on Chinese social media, Mercedes-Benz GLE and GLS models, built in the United States between May 4 and June 12, 2018, have a brake issue which poses a “safety risk.”

The document said authorities in Shanghai had found the rear brakes on these vehicles to be “insufficient.”

Daimler said the company had been made aware of a potential brake issue related to vehicles in China imported from the United States.

“We are working with the relevant authorities to resolve the issue,” a spokeswoman said on Thursday. Daimler could not immediately comment on the number of vehicles affected, and is seeking to resolve what it described as an “entirely technical issue.”

So just another ‘Stealth’ play in the trade war? With offshore yuan relatively stable this last week, amid the looming $16 billion next phase of tariffs, maybe this is a way to hit Europe and US at the same time?

 

 

 

via RSS https://ift.tt/2MaVezQ Tyler Durden