Andrés Sepúlveda Comes Clean From a Colombian Jail – This is How You Hack a Presidential Election

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In July 2015, Sepúlveda sat in the small courtyard of the Bunker, poured himself a cup of coffee from a thermos, and took out a pack of Marlboro cigarettes. He says he wants to tell his story because the public doesn’t grasp the power hackers exert over modern elections or the specialized skills needed to stop them. “I worked with presidents, public figures with great power, and did many things with absolutely no regrets because I did it with full conviction and under a clear objective, to end dictatorship and socialist governments in Latin America,” he says. “I have always said that there are two types of politics—what people see and what really makes things happen. I worked in politics that are not seen.”

Rendón, says Sepúlveda, saw that hackers could be completely integrated into a modern political operation, running attack ads, researching the opposition, and finding ways to suppress a foe’s turnout. As for Sepúlveda, his insight was to understand that voters trusted what they thought were spontaneous expressions of real people on social media more than they did experts on television and in newspapers. He knew that accounts could be faked and social media trends fabricated, all relatively cheaply. He wrote a software program, now called Social Media Predator, to manage and direct a virtual army of fake Twitter accounts. The software let him quickly change names, profile pictures, and biographies to fit any need. Eventually, he discovered, he could manipulate the public debate as easily as moving pieces on a chessboard—or, as he puts it, “When I realized that people believe what the Internet says more than reality, I discovered that I had the power to make people believe almost anything.”

Sepúlveda says he was offered several political jobs in Spain, which he says he turned down because he was too busy. On the question of whether the U.S. presidential campaign is being tampered with, he is unequivocal. “I’m 100 percent sure it is,” he says.

– From the excellent Bloomberg article: How to Hack an Election

Yesterday, Bloomberg published one of the most fascinating articles I’ve read all year. Below are some choice excerpts from the piece, which I encourage you to read in full.

It was just before midnight when Enrique Peña Nieto declared victory as the newly elected president of Mexico. Peña Nieto was a lawyer and a millionaire, from a family of mayors and governors. His wife was a telenovela star. He beamed as he was showered with red, green, and white confetti at the Mexico City headquarters of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, which had ruled for more than 70 years before being forced out in 2000. Returning the party to power on that night in July 2012, Peña Nieto vowed to tame drug violence, fight corruption, and open a more transparent era in Mexican politics.

Two thousand miles away, in an apartment in Bogotá’s upscale Chicó Navarra neighborhood, Andrés Sepúlveda sat before six computer screens. Sepúlveda is Colombian, bricklike, with a shaved head, goatee, and a tattoo of a QR code containing an encryption key on the back of his head. On his nape are the words “</head>” and “<body>” stacked atop each other, dark riffs on coding. He was watching a live feed of Peña Nieto’s victory party, waiting for an official declaration of the results.

When Peña Nieto won, Sepúlveda began destroying evidence. He drilled holes in flash drives, hard drives, and cell phones, fried their circuits in a microwave, then broke them to shards with a hammer. He shredded documents and flushed them down the toilet and erased servers in Russia and Ukraine rented anonymously with Bitcoins. He was dismantling what he says was a secret history of one of the dirtiest Latin American campaigns in recent memory.

continue reading

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State Department Suspends Probe Of “Top Secret” Clinton Emails

While the media goes into a frenzy every time someone is punched or maced at a Trump rally, or frankly any time Trump says anything out of place (and lately he has has had more than his fair share of supply), what according to many is the real scandal, is quietly being doused with the media obligingly looking the other way.

Moments ago, AP reported that the State Department has suspended its internal review into whether former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton or her top aides mishandled emails containing information now deemed “top secret.”

Spokeswoman Elizabeth Trudeau said Friday the department had paused the review to avoid complicating or impeding an ongoing FBI investigation into Clinton’s use of a private server while she was America’s top diplomat. She said the review would remain “on hold” pending completion of the FBI probe. The review could result in counseling, warnings or other action if findings show information was mishandled.

It will most likely result in absolutely nothing, and with the DOJ stonewalling the FBI probe which supposedly has 147 agents on the case, “nothing” is also what the ultimate outcome of any and all probes involving the future president of the US will be, something the broader betting market has also figured out.

An FBI spokesman did not immediately respond to request for comment in a phone call from the AP.


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Liberty Links 4/1/16

13 links today. Enjoy!

Feds Left ‘Explosives’ Material Aboard School Bus After Training Exercises, Parents Told (Speechless, Fox News)

Reddit Deletes Surveillance ‘Warrant Canary’ in Transparency Report (Reuters)

FBI Is Pushing Back Against Judge’s Order to Reveal Tor Browser Exploit (Oh the irony, Motherboard)

EU Sanctions 3 Top Libyans for Blocking UN-Backed Government (Notice all the missing information in this article as you read it, AP)

Draghi Begins ECB Monthly Bond Spend Exceeding Gates’s Fortune (These people are insane, Bloomberg)

How Bribe Factory Unaoil Tried to Stop Us Telling Their Secrets (The Age)

See More Links »

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Weekend Reading: Bulls vs Bears – Who Will Win?

Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

As March marked the beginning of spring, the bulls were stampeded by a “perfect storm” of Central Bank actions. From the ECB dropping rates into negative territory and launching a bigger “quantitative easing” program, to the Federal Reserve backing off its plans to hike interest rates this year, the “accommodative support” gave the bulls the clearance they needed to pile back into equities.

With a short-term improvement in the technical underpinnings of the markets and an improvement in overall sentiment, the short-covering fueled rally pushed the S&P 500 back into positive territory for the year. That is where the bulls find their victory. 

Yet, despite all of the “whooping and hollering” by the bulls, there has actually been little progress made. Yes, the rally from the lows has been very inspiring, but it is the same rally as seen from the previous two lows.

SP500-MarketUpdate-040116

With volume declining on the rally as short-covering fades, the thrust of Central Bank actions now behind us, the focus will once again turn to the economic and fundamental data. From that standpoint, the “bears” remain firm in the commitments. With profit margins and earnings on the decline, economic data weak and interest rates hovering near lows, there is little support for an ongoing bull rally. 

Fundamentals-Technicals-Bull-Bear

But then again, the current rally has defied expected logic up to this point. Will it continue, or will it die a quick death? With traditional summer weakness fast approaching, that is the question that must be answered and the subject of this weekend’s reading. It’s the bulls versus the bears – who will win?


CENTRAL BANKING


MARKETS & EARNINGS


ECONOMY & OIL 


OTHER GOOD READS


“There is nothing so disastrous as a rational investment policy in an irrational world” – John Maynard Keynes


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Jackie’s Lawyers Say Testifying Would Re-Traumatize Her, Censorship at Wesleyan, Contested Convention: P.M. Links

  • Milo YiannopoulosLawyers for “Jackie,” the woman at the center of the Rolling Stone / UVA gang rape hoax, say their client can’t testify at Nicole Eramo’s libel trial because it would “re-traumatize” her.
  • Wesleyan University’s student-government is trying to censor the newspaper again.
  • BuzzFeed News claims Breitbart tech editor Milo Yiannopoulos employs dozens of interns who write most of his articles for him.
  • Contested convention looking more likely, which spells trouble for Donald Trump.
  • Congratulations, people on the internet: you have survived April Fools’ Day.

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Reminder: Watch 3 Libertarian Presidential Candidates Debate Each Other at 9 pm ET on FBN’s #StosselForum

Also, he really didn't kill that man. He says. ||| Fox Business NetworkAs previewed in this space yesterday, tonight on Fox Business Network’s Stossel program you can watch a refreshing change of pace from the statist, Hillary vs. Bernie, Trump-Cruz-Kasich slog we’ve endured lo these past eight months. Three top candidates from the Libertarian Partythe third party in American politics at the moment—will be talking for a change about what the government can stop doing to you.

Who will you prefer between former 2012 LP presidential nominee Gary Johnson, software entrepreneur/man of action John McAfee, and cherubic liberty-movement vet Austin Petersen? Consider this an open thread to hash it out live; you can also follow along on Twitter using the hashtag #StosselForum. At the tail end of the discussion (the first of two parts; the second airs April 8), Kennedy and I will provide spot commentary. Gentlemen, start your freedoms!

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Stocks Spike On “Good Jobs” As Crude Crashes

"Off the lows"…

 

So this just happened…

 

But it doesn't really matter when all it takes is a phone call…

 

Post-Payrolls, stocks faded until the US open, and then took off…

 

Thanks to Dennis Gartman, The Dow surged 250 points off the lows…

 

On the day, good jobs was bad news but good ISM was good news…

 

On the week, Small Caps soared but Trannies were unable to get out green…

 

Year-to-date, Russell 2000 and Nasdaq remain the red as Trannies outperform…

 

VIX was battered almost every day…trading to 13.00!

 

With VIX in control, stocks decoupled from bonds and FX carry….

 

Despite the equity strength, bonds also surged with yields down 6bps (30Y) to 15bps (5Y) on the week…

 

The USD Index tumbled most in 2 months to its lowest close since Oct 2015…(driven by a surge in JPY)

 

Gold managed to close the in the green (best week in a month) as crude was clobbered…

 

This was Crude's first losing week in 7 weeks – pushing crude to one-month lows…

 

So on the week – Stocks Up, Bonds Up, Gold Up, Dollar Down, Oil Down…

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: Reminder – You Are Here


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The Trade Wars Begin: China Retaliates To Steel Tariffs With Global Anti-Dumping Duties

When looking back in history, December 23, 2015 may be the date the global trade wars officially began. On that day, as we reported at the time, the U.S. imposed a 256% tariff on Chinese steel imports.

It did so perhaps with good reason: with its local end markets mothballed, China was desperate to dump as much excess capacity as possible offshore with shipments of steel, oil products and aluminum all reaching new highs according to trade data from the General Administration of Customs, and the result was a dramatic drop in US prices.

On the other hand, with Chinese mills, smelters and refiners all producing far more than can be purchased domestically amid slowing domestic demand, as well as the government’s anti-pollution crackdown, China’s decision to ship the excess overseas was also understandable.

As Bloomberg wrote at the time, “the flood of Chinese supplies is roiling manufacturers around the world and exacerbating trade frictions. The steel market is being overwhelmed with metal from China’s government-owned and state-supported producers, a collection of industry associations have said. The nine groups, including Eurofer and the American Iron and Steel Institute, said there is almost 700 million tons of excess capacity around the world, with the Asian nation contributing as much as 425 million tons.”

2016 was expected to get even worse: Colin Hamilton, head of commodities research, said the the price of hot-rolled coil, used in everything from fridges to freight containers, may decline about 13 percent next year. China’s steel exports, which have ballooned to more than 100 million metric tons this year, may stay at those levels for the rest of the decade as infrastructure and construction demand continues to falter.

To be sure, it was India who launched the first shot, when it announced that it plans to step up its protection for debt-laden domestic steelmakers by imposing a minimum price on steel imports among other measures, Steel Secretary Aruna Sundararajan said in December. The import curbs are necessary to ensure a “level-playing field” for Indian companies after restrictions imposed in September failed to stop a decline in prices, she said.

And then it was the US’ turn, when shortly after India unleashed protectionist measures, the US Department Of Commerce announced that  corrosion-resistant steel imports from China were sold at unfairly low prices and will be taxed at 256 percent. The move was clearly aimed at China: imports from India, South Korea and Italy would be taxed at lower rates, while imports from Taiwan and Italy’s Marcegaglia SpA would not face anti-dumping tariffs.

We left it off by saying that “now that the US has fired the first trade war shot, it will be up to China to retaliate. It will do so either by further devaluing its currency or by reciprocating with its own protectionist measures against the US, or perhaps by accelerating the selling of US Treasurys. To be sure, it has several choices, clearly none of which are optimal from a game theory perspective, but now that the US has openly “defected” from the “prisoner’s dilemma” game, all bets are off.”

To be sure, just a few weeks later China proceeded with another dramatic devaluation of the Yuan, which may or may not have been accompanied by an aggressive selling of Treasury.

However the missing link was China unveiling its own protectionist response: a necessary and sufficient condition for fully symmetric trade wars.

It did so earlier today when, accused of flooding world markets with cheap steel, it imposed its own anti-dumping duties as high as 46.3% on electric steel products imported from Japan, South Korea and the European Union, the Ministry of Commerce said on Friday.

According to Reuters, the overseas suppliers include JFE Steel Corp, Nippon Steel and Sumitomo Metal Corp and POSCO, the ministry said in a notice posted on its website (www.mofcom.gov.cn). The ministry did not identify any EU supplier.

What is curious is that China, by far the world’s biggest steel producer, imports relatively small quantities of high-end steel products, including electric steel used in power transformers and generators. In other words the move was mostly symbolic, and a confirmation that China now believes it is being treated unfairly enough to where it can demand in-kind protectionism which will only escalate as the end demand to the global supply glut is simply not there.

The tariffs come at a time when the UK is up in arms over the decision by Tata Steel, the owner of much of UK’s steel industry, to sell its local plants in the process liquidating about 15,000 jobs. Tata blamed a flood of cheap Chinese supplies which means now that China has re-escalaed, thousands of newly laid off ironworkers in the UK (and elsewhere) will have a new global target which to blame for their troubles.

We doubt it will end there, because one trade wars begin, the logical consequences of currency wars, they rarely end amicably or on short notice, and on numerous occasions devolve into outright, conventional wars.


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“Whoever Wins In Cleveland, The Establishment Must Lose”

Submitted by Patrick Buchanan via Buchanan.org,

The Wisconsin primary could be an axle-breaking speed bump on Donald Trump’s road to the nomination.

Ted Cruz, now the last hope to derail Trump of a desperate Beltway elite that lately loathed him, has taken the lead in the Badger State.

Millions in attack ads are being dumped on the Donald’s head by super PACs of GOP candidates, past and present. Gov. Scott Walker has endorsed Cruz. Conservative talk radio is piling on Trump.

And the Donald just had the worst two weeks of his campaign.

There was that unseemly exchange with Cruz about their wives. Then came the pulling of the woman reporter’s arm by campaign chief Corey Lewandowski, an atrocity being likened by the media to the burning of Joan of Arc.

Then there was Trump’s suggestion, instantly withdrawn, that if abortion is outlawed, then women who undergo abortions may face some punishment.

This gaffe told us nothing we did not know. New to elective politics, Trump is less familiar with the ideological and issues terrain than those who live there. But the outrage of the elites is all fakery.

Democrats do not care a hoot about the right to life of unborn babies, even unto the ninth month of pregnancy. And the Republican establishment is grabbing any stick to beat Trump, not because he threatens the rights of women, but because he threatens them.

The establishment’s problem is that Trump refuses to take the saddle. Again and again, he has defied the dictates of political correctness that they designed to stifle debate and demonize dissent.

Trump has gotten away with his insubordination and shown, with his crowds, votes, and victories, that millions of alienated Americans detest the Washington establishment and relish his defiance.

Trump has denounced the trade treaties, from NAFTA to GATT to the WTO and MFN for China, that have de-industrialized America, imperil our sovereignty and independence, and cost millions of good jobs.

And who is responsible for the trade deals that sold out Middle America? “Free-trade” Republicans who signed on to “fast-track,” surrendered Congress’ rights to amend trade treaties, and buckled to every demand of the Business Roundtable.

The unstated premise of the Trump campaign is that some among the Fortune 500 companies are engaged in economic treason against America.

No wonder they hate him.

As for Trump’s call for an “America First” foreign policy, it threatens the rice bowls of those for whom imperial interventions are the reason for their existence.

If the primary goals of U.S. foreign policy become the avoidance of confrontations with great nuclear powers and staying out of unnecessary wars, who needs neocons?

Should Trump lose Wisconsin, he can recoup in New York on April 19, and the following week in Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware and Maryland.

Yet, a loss in Wisconsin would make Trump’s climb to a first-ballot nomination steeper.

Still, if Trump goes to Cleveland, having won the most votes, the most states and the most delegates, stealing the nomination from him would split the party worse than in 1964.

The GOP could be looking at a 1912, when ex-President Theodore Roosevelt, who won the most contested primaries, was rejected in favor of President Taft. Teddy walked out, ran on the “Bull Moose” ticket, beat Taft in the popular vote, and Woodrow Wilson was elected.

Cruz says the nomination of Trump would mean an “absolute trainwreck” in November. But, Cruz, 45, with a future in the party, would be foolish to walk out as a sore loser, as Nelson Rockefeller and George Romney did in 1964.

A Cruz rejection of a nominee Trump would mean the end of Cruz. The elites would hypocritically applaud Ted’s heroism, publicly bewail his passing, then happily bury and be rid of him.

Cruz, no fool, has to know this.

If the nomination is taken from Trump, who will be 70 in June, he has nothing to lose. And as “Julius Caesar” reminds us, “such men are dangerous.”

Trump and Cruz, though bitter enemies, are both despised by the establishment. Yet both have a mutual interest: insuring that one of them, and only one of them, wins the nomination. No one else.

And if they set aside grievances, and act together, they can block any establishment favorite from being imposed on the party, as was one-worlder Wendell Willkie, “the barefoot boy of Wall Street,” in 1940.

All Trump and Cruz need do is instruct their delegates to vote to retain Rule 40 from the 2012 convention. Rule 40 declares that no candidate can be placed in nomination who has failed to win a majority of the delegates in eight states.

Trump has already hit that mark. Cruz almost surely will. But no establishment favorite has a chance of reaching it.

With Cruz and Trump delegates voting to retain Rule 40, they can guarantee no Beltway favorite walks out of Cleveland as the nominee — and that Ted Cruz or Donald Trump does.

No matter who wins in Cleveland, the establishment must lose.


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