iftttwall

By EconMatters

We look at the AUD/USD Currency Cross in this video. Will the AUD get back to parity with the USD? The AUD is off the 2016 lows, will it strengthen or weaken from here for the remainder of the year? This is the big question for currency traders after the rally off the January lows in the AUD.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/21NKQec EconMatters

While we suspect there will be few, if any, easter eggs adorning Bernie's house this weekend, the following artist's impression accurately explains the micro-aggression of egg-hoarding and the fairness of redistribution that an increasing number of Millennials seem to prefer…

 

Source: Townhall.com

 

"I kinda like the old system better…" indeed.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1RuDRC3 Tyler Durden

Submitted by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com,

This wasn’t part of the rosy scenario.

The Merchandise World Trade Monitor by the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, a division of the Ministry of Economic Affairs, tracks global imports and exports in two measures: by volume and by unit price in US dollars. And the just released data for January was a doozie beneath the lackluster surface.

The World Trade Monitor for January, as measured in seasonally adjusted volume, declined 0.4% from December and was up a measly 1.1% from January a year ago. While the sub-index for import volumes rose 3% from a year ago, export volumes fell 0.7%. This sort of “growth,” languishing between slightly negative and slightly positive has been the rule last year.

The report added this about trade momentum:

Regional outcomes were mixed. Both import and export momentum became more negative in the United States. Both became more positive in the Euro Area. Import momentum in emerging Asia rose further, whereas export momentum in emerging Asia has been negative for four consecutive months.

This is also what the world’s largest container carrier, Maersk Lines, and others forecast for 2016: a growth rate of about zero to 1% in terms of volume. So not exactly an endorsement of a booming global economy.

But here’s the doozie: In terms of prices per unit expressed in US dollars, world trade dropped 3.8% in January from December and is down 12.1% from January a year ago, continuing a rout that started in June 2014. Not that the index was all that strong at the time, after having cascaded lower from its peak in May 2011.

If June 2014 sounds familiar as a recent high point, it’s because a lot of indices started heading south after that, including the price of oil, revenues of S&P 500 companies, total business revenues in the US…. That’s when the Fed was in the middle of tapering QE out of existence and folks realized that it would be gone soon. That’s when the dollar began to strengthen against other key currencies. Shortly after that, inventories of all kinds in the US began to bloat.

Starting from that propitious month, the unit price index of world trade has plunged 23%. It’s now lower than it had been at the trough of the Financial Crisis. It hit the lowest level since March 2006:

This chart puts in perspective what Nils Andersen, the CEO of Danish conglomerate AP Møller-Maersk, which owns Maersk Lines, had said last month in an interview following the company’s dreary earnings report and guidance: “It is worse than in 2008.” [Read… “Worse than 2008”: World’s Largest Container Carrier on the Slowdown in Global Trade.]

But why the difference between the stagnation scenario in world trade in terms of volume and the total collapse of the index that measures world trade in unit prices in US dollars?

The volume measure is a reflection of a languishing global economy. It says that global trade may be sick, but it’s not collapsing. It’s worse than it was in 2011. This sort of thing was never part of the rosy scenario. But now it’s here.

The unit price measure in US dollars is a reflection of two forces, occurring simultaneously: the collapsed prices of the commodities complex, ranging from oil to corn; and the strength of the US dollar, or rather the weakness of certain other currencies, particularly the euro. It didn’t help that since last summer, the Chinese yuan has swooned against the dollar as well. So exports and imports from and to China, measured in dollars, have crashed further than when measured in yuan.

And these forces coagulated at a time of lackluster global demand despite, or because of, seven years of QE, zero-interest-rate policies, and now negative-interest-rate policies. It forms another indictment of central bank policies that have failed to stimulate demand though they have succeeded wonderfully in stimulating asset prices, malinvestment, and overcapacity.

World trade in goods is just one factor in the global economy. Now the global financial sector is getting hit too as the artful QE bonanza is bumping into real-world limits. And for global investment banking revenues, a key income source for “systemically important” banks, it has been one heck of a terrible first quarter. Read… The Big Unwind Hits Investment Banking

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1RxLtG9 Tyler Durden

While the Western media is busy reporting each and every development (no matter how insignificant) in the ongoing effort to uncover more information about the ISIS cell responsible for the Paris attacks and Tuesday’s bombings at the Brussels airport and metro, the Arab world continues to suffer from daily violence the scope of which is often far greater than what unfolded in Belgium this week. 

Just yesterday for instance, a suicide bomber struck a soccer field in Iraq, killing more than two dozen and on Sunday, a blast at a crowded park in Lahore, Pakistan killed more than 50 and injured at least 100. Some reports suggest the majority of the casualties were women and children.

“It is like we’re in a state of war,” senior police officer Haider Ashraf said. “This was a soft target, innocent people, women and children were hit.”

“Local television footage showed distraught parents running with their injured children into a hospital, while many others were brought by ambulance,” WSJ writes, adding that “police said the blast was in an area of the park where children were playing on swings, taken by their parents for an outing on a Sunday evening.” Here’s more from Reuters: 

Eyewitnesses said they saw body parts strewn across the parking lot once the dust had settled after the blast.

 

The park had been particularly busy on Sunday evening due to the Easter holiday weekend.

Salman Rafique, a health adviser for the Punjab provincial government, put the death toll at least 52 people.

 

“Most of the dead and injured are women and children,” said Mustansar Feroz, police superintendent for the area in which the park is located.

 

Media footage showed children and women crying and screaming and rescue officials, police and bystanders carrying injured people to ambulances and private cars.

Here are the visuals from the scene:

#LahoreBlast
You need a big heart to watch this video…
Death to Terrorists, they are worst than wild animals
???????????? http://pic.twitter.com/2u4zH7FyZh

— Rubab Kazmi#TeamIK ? (@SRubabKazmi_512) March 27, 2016

Another attack on Kids & women in Pakistan. Nation under attack by terrorists, Government & mullahs. #LahoreBlast http://pic.twitter.com/Jaut5Xxeav

— Abdul Sattar Edhi (@EdhiAbdulSattar) March 27, 2016

Paklstan has seen some of the most gruesome and heinous violence witnessed throughout the Mid-East in recent years.

In January, Taliban linked militants killed dozens at a university in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and in December of 2014, 144 people were murdered at the Army Public School in Peshawar, where the Taliban walked desk to desk executing children ages 12-16.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/22Fgtwu Tyler Durden

“You know I mean look… broadly speaking …. you know… it’s not a great choice… an either/or… but… you know…”

That was the response from State Department spokesman Mark Toner when two reporters asked him whether the US was pleased that the Syrian army, backed by Hezbollah ground forces and Russian airstrikes was set to retake the ancient city of Palmyra from Islamic State.

The lack of enthusiasm for the Russian-backed effort made for an amusing soundbite and might have come as a surprise to the uninitiated. But for those who follow the conflict in Syria it was par for the course in Washington. As recently as last August The Pentagon and CIA were still holding out some hope that rebel forces might manage to oust Assad and that somehow, ISIS and al-Nusra would subsequently be subdued. The worst case scenario would have seen ISIS itself march into Damascus and take control of the country, but that would have been fine too because then the Marines would simply march in and promptly eliminate the group paving the way for Washington and Riyadh to step in and install a puppet government.

Then the entire calculus changed when Russia entered the fray on September 30. From October on, Washington struggled with how to respond to gains made by Hezbollah and Russia. On the one hand, Moscow was hitting ISIS and al-Nusra hard from the air and the US couldn’t very well condemn that without admitting that “the terrorists” serve a purpose in Syria. On the other hand, relentless bombing runs by Russian warplanes paved the way for Hezbollah and other Iran-backed militias to lay waste to the “moderate” rebels that stood between Assad and Aleppo and that, the US said, was “no fair.” Once Aleppo proper (i.e. the city itself) was surrounded, the rebels basically surrendered (that’s not what they’ll say, nor is it the line you’ll get from Washington and Riyadh, but it’s no coincidence that the ceasefire was agreed at the exact same time that the city was surrounded).

And so, with that bit of messy business out of the way, and with the rebels having agreed to lay down their weapons in exchange for Russia’s promise that the air force wouldn’t seek to wipe them out entirely, Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah did exactly what we said they would do: turned their sights east towards Palmyra, Deir el-Zour, and Raqqa. Here’s what we said in October:

“Hezbollah and Iranian troops are advancing on Aleppo and Moscow is backing the offensive from the sky which means that the hodgepodge of anti-regime forces that control Syria’s largest city will almost (and we say “almost” because there are no sure things in war) certainly be routed, which would effectively serve to restore the Assad regime in Syria.

 

After that, the Russian bear and Qasem Soleimani will turn their eyes to the East of the country and at that point, it is game over for ISIS.

Well, we hate to say “we told you so,” but that assessment has proven to be 100% accurate and after a weeks long siege, Bashar al-Assad announced on Sunday that with the help of Russia and Hezbollah, the Syrian army has driven ISIS from Palmyra.

“Syrian government forces backed by Russian airstrikes drove Islamic State fighters from Palmyra on Sunday, ending the group’s 10-month reign of terror over a town whose famed 2,000-year-old ruins once drew tens of thousands of visitors each year,” AFP reports. “In comments reported on state TV, President Bashar Assad described the Palmyra operation as a ‘significant achievement’ offering ‘new evidence of the effectiveness of the strategy espoused by the Syrian army and its allies in the war against terrorism.’” Here’s more:

Gen. Ali Mayhoub announced on the station that that the fall of Palmyra “directs a fatal blow to Daesh, undermines the morale of its mercenaries, and ushers in the start of its defeat and retreat,” referring to IS by its Arabic acronym. He said it lays the ground for further advances toward Raqqa, the IS group’s de facto capital, and Deir el-Zour, an eastern city it largely controls.

 

Troops in Palmyra are now dismantling explosive booby traps planted by IS, the station reported. State TV and a Britain-based monitoring group later reported that troops captured a military airport to the east.

 

The advance marks a strategic and symbolic victory for the government, which has sought to portray itself as a bulwark against terrorism. The town was an important juncture on an IS supply line connecting its territory in central and northern Syria to the Anbar province in Iraq, where the group also holds territory.

Unfortunately, ISIS did manage to destroy quite a bit of the city’s cultural heritage, including the Triumphal Archs.

Here’s a rundown of the damage, again from AFP:

• State TV showed the rubble left over from the destruction of the Temple of Bel as well as the damaged archway, the supports of which were still standing. It said a statue of Zenobia, the 3rd century queen who ruled an independent state from Palmyra and figures strongly in Syrian lore, was missing.
• Artefacts inside the city’s museum also appeared heavily damaged on state TV.
• A sculpture of the Greek goddess Athena was shown decapitated.
• The museum’s basement appeared to have been dynamited, the hall littered with broken statues.

Of course ISIS also desecrated a The Roman Theatre where last year, city residents were forced to watch as two dozen teenage ISIS trainees carried out a mass execution of captured SAA soldiers.

As Syrian and Iran-backed Shiite forces cleared the city, Vladimir Putin called Bashar al-Assad to congratulate him on the victory. Russia, Putin said, would continue to support the government in its efforts to drive ISIS, al-Nusra, and other jihadist elements from the country.

At last check, Assad hadn’t received a congratulatory call from Obama…

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1VOZkLf Tyler Durden

One week ago we demonstrated just how massive the second Chinese housing bubble when we showed the ridiculous move at the epicenter of China’s latest scramble to reflate “animal spirits” in Shenzhen – one which has put even the recent Chinese stock market bubble to shame – as follows:

 

It appears that the Chinese Politburo has also noticed that it finds itself straddled with yet another unsustainable housing bubble, not only in Shenzhen, but also Shanghai, and all other Tier 1 cities…

 

… and has taken aggressive steps to slow down this exponential surge in prices before it gets even more out of control. As a result, on Friday the local government took the following “sudden” steps to halt the exponential rise in home prices and tighten the local housing market dramatically. From Deutsche Bank:

In the evening of 25 Mar, Shenzhen issued a notice regarding the improvement of the system in the property market:

1. To implement differential mortgage policies: i) for those who are not owning any properties and do not have mortgage records in the past 2 years, minimum downpayment remains changed at 30%; ii) for those who are not owning any properties and have mortgage records in the past 2 years, but have fully repaid the outstanding mortgage loan, 40% minimum downpayment will be applied
2. To improve the house purchasing policies: Families with local hukou are allowed to purchase two house units at most, for non-local families, if they can provide 3 years of income tax or social security payments (vs 1 year currently), they are allowed to purchase one house unit. House purchasing rules on overseas individual and company will be strictly implemented
3. To increase housing supply by different channels
4. To improve the social housing system: target for new construction starts of social housing during the thirteen-fifth year period is 400k units; 350k of social housing units will be supplied to talents and eligible citizens.
5. To standardize and manage market order
6. To enhance the financial risk controls: “Loans for downpayments” will be proper managed. “Loans for downpayment”, crowd-funding house purchasing, bridge financing & other activities with financial leverage provided by internet financing & micro-financing companies are strictly prohibited.

Deutsche Bank’s summary:

The above rules are effective immediately on 25 Mar, 2016. Also, the government said it will also increase land supply and increase development of social housing and shanty town redevelopment. During the Thirteenth Five Year period, Shenzhen government is planning to develop 400,000 units of social housing. Overall, the above tightening measures have been talked about in the market for about 2 months, but have not been introduced; hence some market participants believe that the government is unlikely to take action. Hence, the sudden introduction of the tightening measures (or the timing) is out of market expectations.

Whether these measures will be sufficient to curb further price gains remains to be seen. However, while the government is popping one bubble, it is already doing its best to reflate not just one but two more.

The first, as we reported earlier this week, is the PBOC’s attempt to reflate the stock bubble once again, when earlier this week China once again loosened margin debt curbs hoping to once again get China’s speculative gamblers to load up on stocks.

The second bubble reflation attempt goes back to what we reported last Sunday when we showed that Chinese car sales suffered their biggest two-month drop on record after China tried its own version of “Cash for Clunkers” in late 2015 when the government scrambled to boost car sales with its latest policy stimulus. Instead, all it did was merely pull demand forward as the chart below shows.

 

Did it learn its lesson? No. As Bloomberg reports, China will “appropriately” cut down payment requirement of loans for used-car purchases to promote transactions, State Council said in guidelines. Among the latest stimulus, whose full text can be found here, China proposes the following:

• China to simplify procedures for used-car transactions
• Use-car market has huge potential to develop; can also help consumption of new cars
• Auto industry is a key sector to help stabilize economic growth and boost consumption

To summarize: China is trying to gently let the air out of its second in three years housing bubble; and just in case the local population gets restless, it is providing it with not one but two alternatives: either back into stocks (where it hopes everyone has forgotten what happened just last summer), or into used autos; because China most certainly does not have a smog and pollution problem.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1VOXXfO Tyler Durden

Big banks usually promise their clients all sorts of good things and always continue to issue recommendations to continue to invest in stocks and bonds (obviously to rake in their fees), UBS chartists and technicians Muller and Riesner have now publicly stated we might have seen another top of the S&P 500 index.

And when Muller and Riesner speak up, the investment community listens, as these two technical analysts have correctly predicted the two previous corrections (and the recent increase in the gold price), so they do enjoy some respect in the market. They were already correct in seeing the S&P hitting their target at 2050 points earlier this week, but this target was reached much faster than originally anticipated, and we think it’s now fair to say we have seen two V-shaped corrections on the stock market and these corrections might have been wiped out too fast, too soon. Indeed, apparently to the UBS-analysts, the S&P index has now reached its most overbought situation since 2009, and that’s quite a statement to make!

Source: Stockcharts.com

Of course, at Secular Investor we don’t just act on what just one source claims, but another interesting fact has hit the wires on Friday (and it’s probably not a coincidence this news was released on a day the stock markets were closed). The American economy did grow in the final quarter of last year, but according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, this did not coincide with an increase in the corporate profits. And that’s not something we should easily ignore, as the BEA said the adjusted pre-tax profit of the companies fell by 7.8% in the fourth quarter.

That could and should be seen as a huge disappointment, and this might indeed rattle the markets and ruin the over-excitement. This also emphasizes the point we have made almost eighteen months ago, in October 2014 (!).

‘Our message is that this can’t continue forever. The stock markets will have to face a reality check somed day as we are on a completely different point in the cycle compared to March 2009.[…] The proportion of the cash flow which is being used to buy back shares has almost doubled in the past decade whilst the capital expenditures have decreased. That’s a very dangerous situation as companies don’t only have to spoil their shareholders, they also need to think about the future and investing in new assets is an absolute necessity. ‘

And indeed. The next chart shows you the share buyback level has reached an alarmingly high level.

Source: FactSet Research

But it gets worse. In excess of 30% of the companies is spending MORE on buybacks than they generated in free cash flow. This means that if you would try to pull up the numbers of companies whose share repurchases + dividend payments are higher than the amount of free cash flow.

Source: ibidem

When the music stops, the impact might be enormous. A substantial part of these buybacks are funded by increasing the total amount of debt on the balance sheet, fueled by the low interest rate environment. Once the interest rates start to increase again, the cost of debt will become more expensive, and companies will have to focus on reducing the net debt again, rather than reducing the share count.

All signs are pointing towards an overbought general market, so be prepared for a correction.

>>> Download our new FREE Secular Gold Report

Secular Investor offers a fresh look at investing. We analyze long lasting cycles, coupled with a collection of strategic investments and concrete tips for different types of assets. The methods and strategies are transformed into the Gold & Silver Report and the Commodity Report.

Follow us on Facebook @SecularInvestor [NEW] and Twitter @SecularInvest

 

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1RupAWc Secular Investor

Submitted by Michael Rubin, orignially published at American Enterprise Institute

The situation in Turkey is bad and getting worse. It’s not just the deterioration in security amidst a wave of terrorism. Public debt might be stable, but private debt is out-of-control, the tourism sector is in free-fall, and the decline in the currency has impacted every citizen’s buying power. There is a broad sense, election results notwithstanding, that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is out-of-control. He is imprisoning opponents, seizing newspapers left and right, and building palaces at the rate of a mad sultan or aspiring caliph. In recent weeks, he has once again threatened to dissolve the constitutional court. Corruption is rife. His son Bilal reportedly fled Italy on a forged Saudi diplomatic passport as the Italian police closed in on him in an alleged money laundering scandal. His outbursts are raising eyebrows both in Turkey and abroad. Even members of his ruling party whisper about his increasing paranoia which, according to some Turkish officials, has gotten so bad that he seeks to install anti-aircraft missiles at his palace to prevent airborne men-in-black from targeting him in a snatch-and-grab operation.

Turks — and the Turkish military — increasingly recognize that Erdogan is taking Turkey to the precipice. By first bestowing legitimacy upon imprisoned Kurdish leader Abdullah Öcalan with renewed negotiations and then precipitating renewed conflict, he has taken Turkey down a path in which there is no chance of victory and a high chance of de facto partition. After all, if civil war renews as in the 1980s and early 1990s, Turkey’s Kurds will be hard-pressed to settle for anything less, all the more so given the precedent now established by their brethren in Iraq and Syria.

Erdogan long ago sought to kneecap the Turkish military. For the first decade of his rule, both the US government and European Union cheered him on. But that was before even Erdogan’s most ardent foreign apologists recognized the depth of his descent into madness and autocracy. So if the Turkish military moves to oust Erdogan and place his inner circle behind bars, could they get away with it?

In the realm of analysis rather than advocacy, the answer is yes. At this point in election season, it is doubtful that the Obama administration would do more than castigate any coup leaders, especially if they immediately laid out a clear path to the restoration of democracy. Nor would Erdo?an engender the type of sympathy that Egyptian President Muhammad Morsi did. When Morsi was ousted, his commitment to democracy was still subject to debate; that debate is now moot when it comes to the Turkish strongman. Neither the Republican nor Democratic frontrunners would put US prestige on the line to seek a return to the status quo ante; they might offer lip service against a coup, but they would work with the new regime.

Coup leaders might moot European and American human rights and civil society criticism and that of journalists by immediately freeing all detained journalists and academics and by returning seized newspapers and television stations to their rightful owners. Turkey’s NATO membership is no deterrent to action: Neither Turkey nor Greece lost their NATO membership after previous coups. Should a new leadership engage sincerely with Turkey’s Kurds, Kurds might come onboard. Neither European nor American public opinion would likely be sympathetic to the execution of Erdo?an, his son and son-in-law, or key aides like Egemen Ba??? and Cüneyd Zapsu, although they would accept a trial for corruption and long incarceration. Erdo?an might hope friends would rally to his side, but most of his friends — both internationally and inside Turkey — are attracted to his power. Once out of his palace, he may find himself very much alone, a shriveled and confused figure like Saddam Hussein at his own trial.

I make no predictions, but given rising discord in Turkey as well as the likelihood that the Turkish military would suffer no significant consequence should it imitate Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s game plan in Egypt, no one should be surprised if Turkey’s rocky politics soon get rockier.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1UvogIC Tyler Durden

To be sure, there are always going to be financial and geopolitical landmines and every once in awhile we – and by “we” we’re referring to the market, or the country, or humanity, or whatever collective you want to choose – are going to step on one on the way to ushering in a black swan event.

But when we look out across markets and across the political landscape it’s difficult to escape the feeling that there are more black swans waiting in the wings – so to speak – than usual. There’s the threat of a dirty bomb being detonated in a crowded Western European urban center for instance. Or the chance that Turkey ends up “accidentally” killing a Russian or Iranian soldier while shelling the Azaz corridor. And how about the possibility that China tries to save its economy by chancing a 30% devaluation of the yuan and inadvertently plunges the world into a crisis far worse than 2008?

The interesting thing to note about the third crisis event listed above is that an economic implosion in China may spawn a black swan far larger than that which would emanate from a crisis in the country’s banking sector and/or a deeper devaluation of the RMB.

As we’ve discussed on multiple occasions of late, China desperately needs to purge its economy of excess capacity. The industrial sector is weighed down by too much debt and too little demand, but an acute overcapacity problem prevents the market from getting anywhere close to clearing. Either Beijing moves quickly to ameliorate this, or else a wave of defaults will ripple through the industrial complex on the way to crippling the country’s banking sector, where NPLs are probably at least five times greater than the official numbers suggest.

The big question is this: how will China manage to restructure or otherwise wind down insolvent SOEs without triggering a wave of layoffs that will leave millions of Chinese jobless, destitute, and, most importantly, furious? In other words, the biggest black swan of them all – with the possible exception of terrorists detonating an actual nuclear weapon – may be a coup in China stemming from the sweeping layoffs the country must implement to restore the industrial sector to some semblance of solvency.

Indeed we’re already hearing the rumblings of social unrest. Thousands of miners in China’s coal-rich (or poor depending on one’s perspective) north have gone on strike over months of unpaid wages and fears that government calls to restructure their state-owned employer will lead to mass layoffs. Earlier this month, protesters marched through the streets of Shuangyashan city in Heilongjiang province, venting their frustration at Longmay Mining Holding Group, the biggest coal firm in northeast China.

Subsequently, in the country’s southwest, eight construction workers tied to a protest held in Langzhong last August were subjected to a 1950’s-style public sentencing. Their crime: protesting unpaid wages. Their charge: obstructing official business. The verdict: guilty.

“Don’t take the public for fools,” one citizen wrote on Chinese social media. “You think the people don’t understand your purpose in using public sentencing?“

Just to be clear the “purpose” is this: discouraging protests which the politburo rightly views as the precursor to social unrest.

Just this week, “the Communist Party’s Central Committee and the State Council, China’s cabinet, warned party and state officials that they will lose their jobs if they fail to control public unrest,” WSJ writes. And while “that’s not altogether surprising [as it is] on one level,  just a restatement of longstanding practice, [it] marks the first time authorities have come up with a definitive public statement explicitly warning party and state officials ‘at all levels’ that their jobs are on the line.’”

The warning from the politburo is likely tied directly to the abovementioned protests in what The Journal describes as the “gritty” streets of Shuangyashan. “Government officials are likely worried that the Shuangyashan incident and others could inflict a political cost on the leadership by highlighting issues such as the deficit of labor rights in China,” WSJ continues, before delivering the following summary of everything outlined above:

Party chiefs face a difficult task. Over the next five years, they need to shut down millions of tons of industrial capacity that’s making China’s economy inefficient. This means downsizing scores of steel, coal and other large industries that currently employ hundreds of thousands of workers. They have promised to do this without large-scale layoffs. Those displaced, Mr. Li said, would be given new jobs or government assistance.

 

These promises now hang in the balance.

Yes they do, and as we outlined a week ago, reassigning steelworkers and miners to lower paying jobs in sanitation, logging, and other industries may keep the official unemployment rate subdued, but it will do very little to appease workers who are forced to take a 60% pay cut. Strikes, The Journal goes on to note citing China Labour Bulletin, have risen by 200% from July 2015 to January of this year. Click the image below for an interactive map.

Needless to say, we’re highly skeptical that Beijing will be able to avert widespread protests. The question is whether those protests coalesce into an organized, political movement or whether the frustration simply manifests itself in disparate, ad hoc demonstrations against specific SOEs and/or local governments. 

Of course manifestos like that which appeared on March 4 on Wujie News may help to galvanize public opinion and focus frustrations on the central government. On that note we’ll close with what we said earlier this month: “The Party had better figure something out quick. Because while you can make an example out of a handful of construction workers, and while you can “disappear” dissident journalists, the only thing you can do when millions of furious Chinese descend on Zhongnanhai is start shooting.”

*  *  *

Full statement from CPC Central Committee and State Council

Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, March 23 – Recently, the CPC Central Committee and State Council issued the “implementation of a sound social security comprehensive management leadership responsibility rule”, and issued a notice requiring all localities and departments follow.

“Improve the implementation of the comprehensive management of social security provisions of the leadership responsibility,” reads as follows.

General Provisions

The first is to further promote the social security comprehensive management, and improve the implementation of the leadership responsibility, and comprehensively promote the construction of China Ping An, to ensure that people live in peace, social stability and order, stability of the state, enactment of this provision.

These rules shall apply to all levels of the Party organs, the NPC organs, administrative organs, the CPPCC organs, judicial, procuratorial organs and leading bodies and leading cadres.

People’s organizations, institutions, state-owned enterprises and their leadership, cadres, leaders referring to the implementation of this provision.

Article sound implementation of social security comprehensive management leadership responsibility, should adhere to Deng Xiaoping Theory, the important thought of “Three Represents”, the scientific concept of development as guidance, thoroughly implement the General Secretary Xi Jinping series of important speech, focus on building a moderately prosperous social, comprehensively deepen reforms and comprehensive rule of law, comprehensive strategic layout party strictly adhere problem-oriented, rule of law thinking, reform and innovation, seize the “critical few”, served to strengthen the sense of responsibility for the implementation of leadership, the use of scientific assessment, supervision, evaluation, motivation, discipline and other measures, the formation of the correct orientation, at every level, layers of implementation, so that all levels of leadership and leading cadres effectively assume the party to maintain stability and ensure the peace of the great political responsibility to ensure that the party Central Committee, State Council on the implementation of social security comprehensive management decisions and plans.

Chapter II Liability content

Article strict implementation of territorial management and who is in charge who is responsible for the principle of building the party leadership, government-led, comprehensive management coordination and concerted efforts of various departments, social security comprehensive management work pattern of the social forces to actively participate.

Article party committees and governments at all levels should strengthen the leadership of the social security comprehensive management, and included in the agenda, into the overall economic and social development planning, work conscientiously study and solve important problems and ensure social security comprehensive in terms of human and material resources the smooth conduct of governance.

Around the main party responsible comrades is the first responsible person’s social security comprehensive management, responsible comrades in charge of the comprehensive management of social security is directly responsible, other members of the leadership team in charge of responsibility within the scope of the comprehensive management of social security.

Article VI of the various departments and units should be responsible for their own, fully perform their functions, and actively participate in social security comprehensive management, good initiative to take responsibility to prevent and reduce crimes, maintaining public order and social stability, a good grasp of the departments and units the comprehensive management, and operations with planning, with the deployment, with the check, the same implementation.

Article committees for comprehensive management of social security at all levels and their offices should be under the unified leadership of party committees and governments to seriously organize the relevant units to participate in social security comprehensive management, strengthen supervision and inspection and investigation, and timely information, analysis of social law and order situation, coordinate and solve prominent problems encountered in the work of popularizing typical experiences, promote co-ordination of social security comprehensive management work.

Chapter supervision and inspection

Article VIII of the regional units and departments should establish and improve the social security comprehensive management of target management responsibility system, the social security comprehensive management tasks broken down into a number of specific goals, develop easy to implement measures to check and establish a strict supervision and inspection system, quantitative appraisal system, evaluation of rewards and penalties, from top to bottom layers of the signing of the comprehensive management of social security responsibility.

Party committees at all levels should Article IX of the Standing Committee on the implementation of social security comprehensive management leadership responsibility as a party to the same level plenary of the Committee Report of the work of important content.

Party and government leading bodies and leading cadres should be fulfilled as an important part of the annual work report of the social security comprehensive management responsibility for the situation.

Article X social security comprehensive management committee member units shall deploy units of the system and to carry out the comprehensive management of social security, and promote peace-building situation is summarized annually, making arrangements for next year’s work and report to the same level of social security comprehensive management Commission.

Under a social security comprehensive management committee should be up an annual social security comprehensive management committee reporting.

Party committees and governments at all levels shall be included in the social security comprehensive management work supervision and inspection range, timely organization to carry out special supervision and inspection.

Levels of social security comprehensive management committee members and their offices should mobilize and organize the masses to participate in order to promote the comprehensive management of social security policy decisions into effect.

Article XII of Party committees and governments at all levels should establish a sound social security comprehensive management evaluation system of mechanisms, improve the examination system of evaluation criteria and indicators, a clear assessment of the contents of the evaluation, methods, procedures.

Article XIII Party committees and governments should strengthen social security comprehensive management appraisal results of use of the social security comprehensive management work performance as an important part of leading bodies and leading cadres comprehensive appraisal of the performance evaluation, job promotion, reward punishment and other hook.Comprehensive management of social security at all levels should promote the establishment of the Office of the Committee and its sound social security comprehensive management work performance files.

Organization and personnel departments at all levels in the study of party and government leading cadres and leaders in charge of social security comprehensive management Cadres, were promoted the use and Jin Zhi promotion, should understand and grasp the situation related to the leadership cadres arrested social security comprehensive management work.

Article XIV above the county level social security comprehensive management committee and central office should be in accordance with the relevant provisions to strengthen with the same level discipline inspection organs, organization and personnel departments coordination, synergy incentive to do a good job.

Chapter IV recognition awards

Article XV for solid work, social security comprehensive management of outstanding achievements of local party and government leading cadres in charge of departments and units and cadres, should be given recognition and awards in accordance with relevant regulations. Was honored for leading cadres, should the relevant materials stored in personal files.

Article XVI Central Committee for Comprehensive Management of Social Security, the Central Organization Department, Human Resources and Social Security Ministry carried out every four years, a national social security comprehensive management of advanced collectives and advanced workers named in recognition of the work.

Article XVII commended national social security comprehensive management of advanced collective party and government leading cadres and leaders in charge of cadres should be rewarded. Commended for national social security comprehensive management of advanced workers, we should implement the provincial model workers and advanced workers treatment.

Article XVIII of more than three consecutive commended national social security comprehensive management of advanced collective, by the Central Committee for Comprehensive Management of Social Security in an appropriate form to be commended.

Article XIX local social security comprehensive management committee and the organization and personnel departments at all levels should cooperate with the national social security comprehensive management of advanced collectives and advanced workers named in recognition of such work.

Chapter V Supervision responsibility and accountability

Article XX party and government leading bodies and leading cadres in violation of the provisions of or failure to perform duties correctly covered by this provision, one of the following circumstances, it shall be the responsibility of supervision and accountability:

(A) does not attach importance to social security comprehensive management and peace building, poor implementation of measures related to work, in the region of the grassroots work of the unit system is weak, serious disruption of law and order;

(Ii) in the region of the system units in a relatively short period of time in a row major criminal cases, group events, public safety incidents;

(Iii) in the region of the present system of the unit causing especially serious criminal cases, group events, public safety incidents;

(Iv) in the region of the social security comprehensive management unit (peace building) Evaluation unqualified, non-compliance;

(V) the masses have strong social security and highlight key areas of public safety, law and order issues, or did not take effective measures to rebound;

(Vi) Party and the Committee for Comprehensive Management of Social Security and government at all levels need to consider other matters of inquiries.

Twenty-one pairs of party and government leading bodies and leading cadres of accountability and responsibility for supervision methods include: communications, interviews, supervise the handling, the implementation of one-vote veto system, resign, ordered to resign, removal and so on. Shall be liable for disciplinary violations, the party and government discipline; constitutes a crime, be held criminally responsible.

Article 22 Article XX circumstances listed in this region has a predetermined unit, above the county level by the respective social security comprehensive management committee office informed in writing briefing by the social security comprehensive management committee, if necessary, the deadline rectification.

Article 23 After being informed still on schedule to complete the rectification goals, or having the present circumstances as prescribed in Article XX listed and serious harm or affect major regional units from the corresponding higher level of social security comprehensive management committee Office Director of the party and government to conduct interviews of its leading cadres, social security comprehensive management in charge of leading cadres and other leaders responsible team members, if necessary, by the social security comprehensive management committee director, deputy director of the interview, to help analyze the causes and urge deadline for correction.

Article 24 After being interviewed still on schedule to complete the rectification goals, or have these provisions and circumstances set forth in Article XX particularly serious harm or particularly significant influence but not serious enough to implement one-vote veto system areas, units, supervise the handling by the office of integrated governance Committee on an appropriate social order, the deadline for rectification. If necessary, the Working Group stationed in the region to supervise the handling unit inspection supervision.

The Central Committee for Comprehensive Management of Social Security Office annually from public security, law and order problems relative prominence of the city (prefecture, league), it is determined as supervise the handling of a number of focus on remediation units, strengthen supervision and management.

Supervise the handling by the regional unit, within six months to cancel the area selection unit integrated honorary title and qualifications in the area, the unit leading cadres in charge of leading cadres, leading cadres in charge of the first assessment alumni, Jin Zhi promotion eligibility.

Article 25 has not yet been completed on schedule and supervise the handling after the rectification goals, or have the case listed in Article XX of this provision and particularly serious harm or particularly significant impact on the region, units from the corresponding on a comprehensive social security governance Committee in accordance with the relevant provisions of the central and commercial departments jointly decided to implement one-vote veto system.

Article 26 being one-vote veto system processing area, unit, within a year, the abolition of the area, the unit Eligibility comprehensive honorary title by the organization and personnel departments in accordance with relevant authority and procedures; cancel the region unit of leading cadres in charge of leading cadres, leading cadres in charge of the first assessment alumni, Jin Zhi eligible for promotion by the organization and personnel departments handled in accordance with the cadre management authority and procedures, and in conjunction with the office of the Committee for comprehensive management of Social security, in accordance with the provisions of the relevant central to the higher level department report, for the record. The area needs to be investigated, the unit responsible party and government cadres, discipline inspection organs transferred according to discipline according to law.

Article 27 The central unit in place need to implement one-vote veto system by the provincial public security comprehensive management Committee written recommendations to its competent authority and the Central Committee for Comprehensive Management of Social Security.

Article 28 The party and government leaders have the circumstances specified in Article XX, in accordance with the “Interim Provisions on the implementation of party and government leaders accountable” should be taken to resign, ordered to resign, removal and other means of accountability by discipline inspection organs, organization and personnel departments handled in accordance with administrative privileges.

Article 29 Party and government leading bodies and leading cadres have the circumstances specified in Article XX, and one of the following circumstances shall be given a heavier responsibility for supervision and accountability:

(A) interfere with, impede the investigation of and accountability;

(Ii) fraud, to conceal the truth, cheat significant underreporting of cases;

(Iii) prosecutors, complainants and other retaliatory strike;

(Iv) other aggravating circumstances the party regulations and state laws and regulations.

Article 30 Party and government leading bodies and leading cadres of the provisions set forth in Article XX has a case and having one of the following circumstances, may be given responsibility for supervision and accountability:

(A) take the initiative to take measures to avoid losses, to restore the impact;

(B) actively cooperate with the investigation, and take the initiative to assume responsibility;

(Iii) other mitigating circumstances within the party regulations and national laws and regulations.

Chapter VI Supplementary Provisions

Article 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, various departments of the central and state organs may formulate implementation measures in accordance with these provisions.

The provisions of Article 32 by the Central Committee for Comprehensive Management of Social Security is responsible for interpretation.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1Pyx1t7 Tyler Durden