Silver & Small Caps Slump As Bonds & Dollar Jump

What a difference two days make. After the exuberance of The Fed-day's "dovishness" which was "hawkishness", Small Cap stocks and Transports have given back all their FOMC gains and Treasuries have regained all their losses. Russell 2000 closes near 6-week lows, down 1.0% year-to-date (as Trannies end the week +17.4% YTD) with the S&P and Dow making new record highs. Despite a 1-2% gain for big caps, Treasury yields ended the week lower (30Y -6bps, 10Y -4bps) tumbling 7-10bps from high-to-low today. The USD ended the week +0.75% (10th week in a row) at new multi-year highs led by JPY, AUD, and EUR weakness. Oil was the only commodity holding gains by the close of the week as copper and gold were clubbed in line with the USD gain as Silver was monkey-hammered -4% on the week. BABA closed just above its opening level around $93.

 

Year-to-Date, Trannies on top; Small Caps on bottom…

 

Since The FOMC, Russell is down and Trannies unch…

 

And Homebuilders worst, Healthcare and financials best post-FOMC…

 

On the week, Russell is the biggest loser…

 

But while stocks are broadly higher on the week, bonds also rallied to their low yields of the week…

 

FX markets saw more USD strength as JPY and EUR weakness dominated (and then GBP selling today)

 

And so commodities tumbled (oil modestly higher) with Silver getting smashed to 4-year lows…

 

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: BABA closed just above its opening level

 




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Silver & Small Caps Slump As Bonds & Dollar Jump

What a difference two days make. After the exuberance of The Fed-day's "dovishness" which was "hawkishness", Small Cap stocks and Transports have given back all their FOMC gains and Treasuries have regained all their losses. Russell 2000 closes near 6-week lows, down 1.0% year-to-date (as Trannies end the week +17.4% YTD) with the S&P and Dow making new record highs. Despite a 1-2% gain for big caps, Treasury yields ended the week lower (30Y -6bps, 10Y -4bps) tumbling 7-10bps from high-to-low today. The USD ended the week +0.75% (10th week in a row) at new multi-year highs led by JPY, AUD, and EUR weakness. Oil was the only commodity holding gains by the close of the week as copper and gold were clubbed in line with the USD gain as Silver was monkey-hammered -4% on the week. BABA closed just above its opening level around $93.

 

Year-to-Date, Trannies on top; Small Caps on bottom…

 

Since The FOMC, Russell is down and Trannies unch…

 

And Homebuilders worst, Healthcare and financials best post-FOMC…

 

On the week, Russell is the biggest loser…

 

But while stocks are broadly higher on the week, bonds also rallied to their low yields of the week…

 

FX markets saw more USD strength as JPY and EUR weakness dominated (and then GBP selling today)

 

And so commodities tumbled (oil modestly higher) with Silver getting smashed to 4-year lows…

 

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: BABA closed just above its opening level

 




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Citi Asks “Who Is Levering Up?”, Answers “Everyone” And Finds Median Leverage Has Never Been Higher

Hopefully this will end the debate about US corporate “deleveraging”, which is really leveraging whose proceeds are used to fund pervasive stock buybacks and raise the S&P 500 in what is nothing short of a massive, creeping MBO of the entire market, once and for all.

From Citi’s Stephen Antczak

Who is Levering Up?

“Pretty much everybody. We calculate leverage for the IG universe today and three years ago (leverage ratio on the Y axis, names on the X axis and ordered from most to least levered). In gross and net terms there has basically been a parallel shift upward.”

“Sneaky” Leverage on the Rise as Well

“One way to lever up is buyback shares, an activity that has been on the rise. Another way is grow assets faster than equity, and activity that has also ticked up recently.”

What does that mean about overall leverage?

“We calculated leverage for two baskets of names — the overall IG universe updated quarterly since ’06, and for a basket comprised of credits that held an IG rating at any time since ‘06 (to capture falling angels). Either way, it doesn’t look good.”

And by “it doesn’t look good”, Citi of course, means “doesn’t look bad”




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Citi Asks "Who Is Levering Up?", Answers "Everyone" And Finds Median Leverage Has Never Been Higher

Hopefully this will end the debate about US corporate “deleveraging”, which is really leveraging whose proceeds are used to fund pervasive stock buybacks and raise the S&P 500 in what is nothing short of a massive, creeping MBO of the entire market, once and for all.

From Citi’s Stephen Antczak

Who is Levering Up?

“Pretty much everybody. We calculate leverage for the IG universe today and three years ago (leverage ratio on the Y axis, names on the X axis and ordered from most to least levered). In gross and net terms there has basically been a parallel shift upward.”

“Sneaky” Leverage on the Rise as Well

“One way to lever up is buyback shares, an activity that has been on the rise. Another way is grow assets faster than equity, and activity that has also ticked up recently.”

What does that mean about overall leverage?

“We calculated leverage for two baskets of names — the overall IG universe updated quarterly since ’06, and for a basket comprised of credits that held an IG rating at any time since ‘06 (to capture falling angels). Either way, it doesn’t look good.”

And by “it doesn’t look good”, Citi of course, means “doesn’t look bad”




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Exponential: Ebola Cases Now Double Every 3 Weeks; CDC Warns Over Half A Million May Be Infected Soon

Since the start of the outbreak, the Ebola virus has infected 5,357 people, killing 2,630, according to the WHO; and as The UN explains, the outbreak is the largest the world has ever seen with the number of cases is doubling every three weeks. As Sierra Leone instigates a 3-day nationwide shutdown to contain the deadly virus, the UN Secretary-General explains "Ebola matters to us all," as we noted previously the odds of the infection coming to America is around 18% by year-end. The CDC, however, hot on the heels of the UN's proclamation that "the gravity and scale of the situation now require an unprecedented level of international action," has warned that unless government intervention is increased significantly, 550,000 people could be infected by the end of January. "Contained?"

 

As The Secretary General of The UN stated

The Ebola crisis has evolved into a complex emergency, with significant political, social, economic, humanitarian and security dimensions.  The suffering and spillover effects in the region and beyond demand the attention of the entire world.  Ebola matters to us all.

 

The outbreak is the largest the world has ever seen.  The number of cases is doubling every three weeks.  There will soon be more cases in Liberia alone than in the four-decade history of the disease.

 

In the three most affected countries – Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone – the disease is destroying health systems.  More people are now dying in Liberia from treatable ailments and common medical conditions than from Ebola.

 

The virus is also taking an economic toll.  Inflation and food prices are rising. Transport and social services are being disrupted.  The situation is especially tragic given the remarkable strides that Liberia and Sierra Leone have made in putting conflict behind them.

 

National governments are doing everything they can.  I applaud the courageous actions of the governments, communities and individuals on the frontlines, including local health workers, Médecins Sans Frontières, the International Federation for the Red Cross and Red Crescent and UN entities.

 

The gravity and scale of the situation now require a level of international action unprecedented for a health emergency.

Sierra Leone has instigated a 3-day nationwide shutdown to try and contain the spread of the virus…

 

And now the CDC warns, things are about to World War Z…

The Ebola outbreak in West Africacould spread to hundreds of thousands more people by the end ofJanuary, according to an estimate under development by the U.S.Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that puts one worst-case scenario at 550,000 or more infections.

 

The report, scheduled to be released next week, was described by two people familiar with its contents, who asked to remain anonymous because it isn’t yet public.

 

The projection, which vastly outstrips previous estimates, is under review by researchers and may change. It assumes no additional aid or intervention by governments and relief agencies, which are mobilizing to contain the Ebola outbreak before it spirals further out of control in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea.

 

“CDC is working on a dynamic modeling tool that allows for recalculations of projected Ebola cases over time,” said Barbara Reynolds, a spokeswoman for the agency, in an e-mail. “CDC expects to release this interactive tool and a description of its use soon.”

 

A separate worst-case scenario modeled last month by researchers at the University of Tokyo and Arizona State University predicted there would be as many as 277,124 new cases by the year’s end.

 

That was the high end of their estimate, though the researchers warned that “uncontrolled cross-border transmission could fuel a major epidemic to take off in new geographical areas.”

And as Bloomberg notes, they are going to need more money…

Curbing the outbreak will require investments of $988 million over the next six months, according to an overview of needs and requirements published by the UN.

 

About 30 percent of what’s needed has come in so far, Nabarro said earlier this week at a briefing in Geneva.

*  *  *

It appears "Moore's Law" has come to Ebola… and $1 billion seems like nothing… half a day's POMO?




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Asset Forfeiture Laws “Evil” and “Unreformable”, Say Former Justice Department Officials

Last week The Washington Post ran a
series of in-depth articles
on the problems with civil asset forfeiture
. Today, two

former justice department officials weighed in
on the issue,
calling for the abolition of the program they helped create.

John Yoder and Brad Cates were directors of the Justice
Department’s Asset Forfeiture Office, with a combined tenure
running from 1983 to 1989. As they explain, the program started off
with good intentions, but has turned to be a cure worse than the
disease:

Asset forfeiture was conceived as a way to cut into the profit
motive that fuelled rampant drug trafficking by cartels and other
criminal enterprises, in order to fight the social evils of drug
dealing and abuse. Over time, however, the tactic has turned into
an evil itself, with the corruption it engendered among government
and law enforcement coming to clearly outweigh any benefits.

 Can asset forfeiture be reformed? Yoder and Cates don’t
think so:

The Asset Forfeiture Reform Act was enacted
in 2000 to rein in abuses, but virtually nothing has changed. This
is because civil forfeiture is fundamentally at odds with our
judicial system and notions of fairness. It is unreformable.

Despite its popularity amongst law enforcement, civil asset
forfeiture clearly violates key principles of the U.S. legal
system. It reverses the burden of proof, and violates the principle
that people are innocent until proven guilty.

This opposition from former government officials who helped
implement it is a testament to the harm it causes. It’s just a
shame that their opposition  comes 20 years after their role
in its implementation.


For more about civil asset forfeiture, see “How
Cops Became Robbers”
by Reason’s Jacob
Sullum. 

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Was Scottish Vote Rigging Caught On Tape?

Given the pre-vote polls and 300 years of historical resentment, many were somewhat surprised at the overwhelming "No" vote in last night's Scottish Independence referendum. While we now know that the vote broke very cleanly between old ("no") and young ("yes") Scots, the following clip suggests the possibility that more was afoot than that. As the commentator blasts, "Busted! Absolutely busted!" You decide…

 

 

As Martin Armstrong rages, Is anything real anymore…

I have communicated directly with some Scots. I spoke to an 18 year segment to get a perspective of the youth. They used the word that they wanted a “REVOLUTION” and feel very betrayed by what they called the over “65″ crowd. This is what our model has been warning about and why this is important. Unfunded liabilities are around the global as populations enter the retirement age of the baby-boomers worldwide – post-World War II surge in births. The birth rate and marriage rate has been declining, efforts are building around the globe to encourage women to have children. In Britain, the NHS is funding a sperm bank for lesbians.Just for starters, Germany, Japan, Russia, and Taiwan are paying women to have children and the list keeps going. Why? What happened to over population? The older generation is dying off and the social programs are gauging the younger generation causing taxation to rise and the youth cannot find work.

Camerob-9-19-2014

David Cameron basically said reading between the lines – the younger generation lost and their fate is now settled “for a generation.” This degree of arrogance is not going to be helpful. Governments will not reform and that brings us only to the bring of our right civil unrest that will rip the systems apart. No one in charge will address the long-term. They are only concerned about one vote at a time.

Now the recriminations. There is a rising tide among the YES camp that view the Scottish vote was rigged. There are videos and photographs emerging calling the votes rigged. There is special focus on Dundee where photos are circulating on Twitter and Facebook demonstrating the rigging of the election. The polling stations also accused were directly in Edinburgh. This will be like Bush stealing the election in the USA and it will linger causing tremendous resentment in Britain. The whole of Europe needed the Scottish NO vote. Since Brussels rigged the Italian elections, we cannot rule out their involvement behind the scenes yet in Scotland. This has led to so many in Scotland feeling they have been cheated and reduced to second class slaves of London and Brussels.

Crisis-Democracy

International Business Times is reporting the uproar. We all have to be deeply concern given the fact that in Europe, the Commission is a dictatorship. The people can vote for a minister to be in Brussels, but the Commission does not have to abide by whatever the people want anyway. What must be understood is this is now about maintaining Brussels.They are paying themselves outrageous amounts of money for absolutely nothing. Just one EU Commissioner will get €400,000 for not working as reported by the Telegraph.

European-Parliament

The EU Commission was threatened by Scotland because if they won their independence, the contagion would have engulfed all of Europe and that would cost jobs in Brussels. This is not about what is good for Europe, it is what is now good for the politicians to keep their huge salaries.

Europe-Separatist Movement

The most interesting evidence of DISTRUST is the capital movement. One would expect the Euro and the pound to rally with the threat of separatism dead. Instead, The pound rallied moderately but not the Euro. Capital is clearly aware that the game is still afoot.




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This Pension Fund Is Daytrading Your Retirement Funds, With Up To 500% Leverage

While we have already noted the backlash against hedge funds as a result of their chronic underperformance of the market over the past 5 years, resulting in first Calpers and now Texas Pensions to pull money out of the asset class, the reality is that in a micro-managed world in which the Fed itself is the Chief Risk Officer of the S&P 500, there is no need to actively manage assets – after all the money printer itself is doing so on behalf of everyone. However, it is not just highly paid hedge funds – paid highly to hedge risk which simply does not exist until such time as central banks lose control – but pension, mutual and virtually every other class of actively managed money will underperform the S&P as long as the central banks are actively pushing asset values higher (and when they stop watch out below because no amount of shorts or puts will offset the carnage that will result).

And yet some, such as Pension funds, have a specific bogey they have to hit every single year, in order to maintain a mandated increase in their assets or else suffer the wrath of disgruntled pensioners and overseers.

Which probably explains why as Pension360 reports, the Chief Investment Officer of one such pension fund decided to do the unthinkable: daytrade, i.e. gamble, its assets, which happen to be the lifetime savings of hard workers who just happen to be naive enough to believe their retirement money is entrusted into safe hands. Little did they know that instead they have handed the fruit of their lives’ labor over to the E-trade baby.

And if that was not bad enough, the CIO intends to use as much as 500% leverage. While daytrading.

Here is Pension360.org‘s account

There are few, if any, pension board meetings as drama-filled as the ones that have taken place this month at the San Diego County Employees Retirement Association (SDCERA).

The fund’s trustees have been debating a strategy allowing extensive use of leverage in the fund’s investments. Such a strategy was proposed to increase the fund’s below-average investment returns. But if it backfires, it could evaporate the fund’s assets.

The man behind the plan is outsourced chief investment officer Lee Partridge, to whom the fund has given near total control over investment decisions.

Partridge has the authority to leverage certain investments up to 500 percent – without the permission of the fund CEO or anyone else.

Now, some board members are asking whether Partridge is participating in day trading with pension assets. The exchange, as reported by the San Diego Union-Tribune:

At the Sept. 4 board meeting, new board member Samantha Begovich asked Partridge if he was day-trading, the speculative investment practice that can result in heavy profits or losses by the hour.

 

“Tell me how it is prudent to take our $10 billion and risk it to $20 billion,” she asked, using dollar bills to illustrate her point about the potential to lose the entire fund and billions more. “We as trustees have to comply with a prudent investor standard.”

Partridge’s response:

Partridge said he invests and trades on a daily basis, but said it is done to balance risk, not to seize on minute-by-minute market changes. The strategy is extremely unlikely to drain the county portfolio, he said.

 

“We’re not trying to time the market,” said Partridge, whose one-man consultancy merged with Salient Partners in 2010. “We’re trying to maintain the intended level of exposure at all times so we’re not running too hot or too cold.”

More on the authority given to Partridge to leverage investments, From the San Diego U-T:

Under authority already granted to Partridge, the consultant can risk five times the value of “risk-parity” assets — capped at 20 percent of the portfolio — without notifying pension system CEO Brian White.

 

White also recommends Partridge be given leeway to invest 5 percent of the fund in “managed futures” that could be leveraged fourfold without independent approval.

 

There is also a real-estate component that Partridge can leverage to 200 percent without advance permission.

Because the investments are secured by the overall portfolio, a worst-case scenario could see the fund evaporate and leave the county owing billions more.

The board is also debating whether to retain Partridge’s services. The CEO of the fund, Brian White, has recommended a contract extension through 2021. The board also gave Partridge a 25 percent raise back in June.

SDCERA returned 13.4 percent in the fiscal year 2013-14, according to its annual report.

Meawhile, CalSTRS and CalPERS both returned over 18 percent.




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Barney Frank Explains How America’s Libertarian Nature Is Helping Legalize Gay Marriage, Marijuana

Former Congressman Barney Frank sat down with the folks at the
absurdly named Big Think (these are the same folks who gave Bill
Nye a platform to assume opponents of
Common Core
are creationists) about the future of marijuana
legalization. Though probably better known to the public for his
advocacy on gay rights and financial regulation, he’s been a
constant fighter to end the war on
drugs
, long before the current push.

This short segment combines (marries, if you will) analysis of
how people’s attitudes are changing on marijuana legalization with
changes in opinion on recognizing marriages of gay couples. I’m
bringing up the video because he makes some interesting
libertarian-friendly statements (including actually referencing
libertarianism):

Some bullet points of interest:

  • He describes the dilemma of those in favor of the bans as
    struggling to come up with reasons why it should be a legal or
    government issue. He notes that America’s “basic libertarianism”
    makes it difficult to convince people to ban something just because
    you think it’s morally wrong. They have to show it has real
    negative consequences that affect other people. Because
    prohibitions had been hammered through earlier, though, it was
    impossible to disprove claims that gay marriage and marijuana use
    caused actual harms.
  • Thus, the awesomeness of federalism! He doesn’t actually use
    the word, but he talks about how a few places broke through years
    ago: Massachusetts and Vermont on marriage, and the many states
    that began legalizing marijuana for medical use. Thus we are able
    to get the evidence that gay marriage and marijuana don’t cause the
    sorts of social harms that banners insisted on: “None of the
    negative effects people predicted have occurred. Reality beat the
    prejudice.”
  • Frank explains that when he first began pushing to legalize
    marijuana, he faced opposition from black political leaders who
    worried about the impact of drug use on their communities. But
    their attitudes changed when they saw the “absolutely undeniable
    discriminatory nature of the law enforcement” of drug laws against
    minorities.

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“Dewars Defeats Truman” or 110 Percent of Scotsmen Can’t Be Wrong


Britain’s Daily Mail
has had a lot of fun at CNN’s
expense over this graphic from yesterday’s failed vote for Scottish
independence. Not only are the percentages wrong, they add up to
110 percent.

And we all know that only happens in Chicago.

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