iftttwall

Gold prices are up around 1.5% from last night’s close.

 

Market participants have various reasons for the jump from Obama’s unilateral airstrikes on Syria-bases ISIS (and blowback concerns) to Europe’s dismal data (more QE?) but we suspect what really drove the move was what one world-renowned newsletter writer orated last night.

 

 

Practically bottom-ticking the recent swing in precious metals, none other than Dennis Gartman told CNBC viewers, “There’s no reason to own gold in U.S. dollar terms,” adding that, “owning gold has been just a treacherous, boring, nasty trade that just keeps losing money for anybody who buys it.”

*  *  *

$29.95 well spent…

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1sldtU1 Tyler Durden

Whether as a result of recent icy to quite icy diplomatic relations between the two nations, or just because it has other motives, Israel had clearly abstained from joining the US effort to contain the CIA-created ISIS terrorist juggernaut. However, overnight, with the US finally doing what Israel has hoped it would do for so long, namely being engaged in a bombing campaign of Syria (recall that it was Israel which was one of the biggest supporters of a US-led military intervention in Syria in the summer of 2013), it decided “hell, why not” and joined the fray, when shortly before 3 am Eastern time, this hit:

• ISRAELI SAYS IT DOWNED SYRIAN AIRCRAFT IN ISRAELI AIRSPACE
• ISRAELI ARMY SAYS DOWNED SYRIAN AIRCRAFT WAS FIGHTER JET

Quite notable because it was the first time in three decades that Israel had downed a Syrian warplane, so Israel needed a strong pretext for such aggression. An aggression, incidentally, not against ISIS, but Assad’s regime itself, which clearly is what Obama’s latest operation is all about – to take down a sovereign while doing the bidding of Qatar and Saudi Arabia, just like in 2013.

And then Israel, oddly, revised the story:

• ISRAEL SHOOTS DOWN SYRIAN WARPLANE NEAR BORDER: ISRAEL ARMY

So… it may not have been in Israel airspace. But then, why? Oh, here’s why:

• ISRAEL’S YA’ALON SAYS SYRIAN JET ACTED IN ‘THREATENING MANNER’

Just how does a jet act in a “threatening manner” – isn‘t a fighter jet’s very premise to exist in a threatening manner?

In any event, Israel is now part of the onslaught, which means that the carve up of Syria’s territory, with Assad’s ouster now firmly priced in, has begun. Something tells us that whatever Qatar does not take, and it will mostly need a corridor of land so its nat gas pipeline can traverse the country and enter Europe with Brussel’s blessing since this would crush Putin’s leverage over Europe, will be handed over to “US allies” in the region.

Here is Reuters’ take on the event:

Israel shot down a Syrian warplane on Tuesday, saying the aircraft crossed the battle lines of Syria’s civil war and flew over the Israeli-held Golan Heights, perhaps by accident. The incident coincided with but did not appear to be directly related to air strikes the United States and Gulf Arab allies mounted on Islamic State strongholds in Syria.

 

But it presented another challenge to Israel’s oft-stated desire to stay on the sidelines of a conflict on its northern doorstep, in which al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front rebels took over a border crossing on the Golan last month.

 

The Israeli military said its U.S.-made Patriot missile air defence system shot down a Syrian Russian-built Sukhoi fighter plane that had “infiltrated Israeli airspace” over the territory, captured by Israel in the 1967 Middle East war.

Of course, Syria’s version of events is quite different, namely that the warplane was not over Israel territory, meaning following the US act of aggression against a sovereign, Israel was merely piggybacking and also declaring war on the Assad regime:

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which tracks violence in the civil war, said the warplane had been bombing areas outside Quneitra, a Syrian town near the Israeli-held side of the frontier, at the time it was shot down. It said the pilot had bailed out. Syria described the downing of the aircraft as an act of aggression.

 

Israeli Defence Minister Moshe Yaalon, commenting on the incident, said Israel “will not allow any element – neither a state nor a terrorist group – to threaten our security and violate our sovereignty”.

 

Israeli military sources said the plane apparently crossed by accident into Israeli-controlled airspace.

 

In his statement, Yaalon also seemed to raise that possibility, saying Israel would respond strongly to perceived threats “whether they stemmed from a mistake or were deliberate”.

Or weren’t a mistake at all, and the attack was just another provocation seeking to escalate what is already a war of interenational aggression headed by a US-led coalition.

So while the West, and Arab nations have tipped their hand, it now remains to be seen just how, and on whose side, Russia and China will join this conflict which is a nothing but a rerun of the Syrian near-war of summer 2013, instigated by the grand puppet masters, Qatar and Saudi Arabia’s Bandar bin Sultan.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1uD2uBX Tyler Durden

Whether as a result of recent icy to quite icy diplomatic relations between the two nations, or just because it has other motives, Israel had clearly abstained from joining the US effort to contain the CIA-created ISIS terrorist juggernaut. However, overnight, with the US finally doing what Israel has hoped it would do for so long, namely being engaged in a bombing campaign of Syria (recall that it was Israel which was one of the biggest supporters of a US-led military intervention in Syria in the summer of 2013), it decided “hell, why not” and joined the fray, when shortly before 3 am Eastern time, this hit:

• ISRAELI SAYS IT DOWNED SYRIAN AIRCRAFT IN ISRAELI AIRSPACE
• ISRAELI ARMY SAYS DOWNED SYRIAN AIRCRAFT WAS FIGHTER JET

Quite notable because it was the first time in three decades that Israel had downed a Syrian warplane, so Israel needed a strong pretext for such aggression. An aggression, incidentally, not against ISIS, but Assad’s regime itself, which clearly is what Obama’s latest operation is all about – to take down a sovereign while doing the bidding of Qatar and Saudi Arabia, just like in 2013.

And then Israel, oddly, revised the story:

• ISRAEL SHOOTS DOWN SYRIAN WARPLANE NEAR BORDER: ISRAEL ARMY

So… it may not have been in Israel airspace. But then, why? Oh, here’s why:

• ISRAEL’S YA’ALON SAYS SYRIAN JET ACTED IN ‘THREATENING MANNER’

Just how does a jet act in a “threatening manner” – isn‘t a fighter jet’s very premise to exist in a threatening manner?

In any event, Israel is now part of the onslaught, which means that the carve up of Syria’s territory, with Assad’s ouster now firmly priced in, has begun. Something tells us that whatever Qatar does not take, and it will mostly need a corridor of land so its nat gas pipeline can traverse the country and enter Europe with Brussel’s blessing since this would crush Putin’s leverage over Europe, will be handed over to “US allies” in the region.

Here is Reuters’ take on the event:

Israel shot down a Syrian warplane on Tuesday, saying the aircraft crossed the battle lines of Syria’s civil war and flew over the Israeli-held Golan Heights, perhaps by accident. The incident coincided with but did not appear to be directly related to air strikes the United States and Gulf Arab allies mounted on Islamic State strongholds in Syria.

 

But it presented another challenge to Israel’s oft-stated desire to stay on the sidelines of a conflict on its northern doorstep, in which al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front rebels took over a border crossing on the Golan last month.

 

The Israeli military said its U.S.-made Patriot missile air defence system shot down a Syrian Russian-built Sukhoi fighter plane that had “infiltrated Israeli airspace” over the territory, captured by Israel in the 1967 Middle East war.

Of course, Syria’s version of events is quite different, namely that the warplane was not over Israel territory, meaning following the US act of aggression against a sovereign, Israel was merely piggybacking and also declaring war on the Assad regime:

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which tracks violence in the civil war, said the warplane had been bombing areas outside Quneitra, a Syrian town near the Israeli-held side of the frontier, at the time it was shot down. It said the pilot had bailed out. Syria described the downing of the aircraft as an act of aggression.

 

Israeli Defence Minister Moshe Yaalon, commenting on the incident, said Israel “will not allow any element – neither a state nor a terrorist group – to threaten our security and violate our sovereignty”.

 

Israeli military sources said the plane apparently crossed by accident into Israeli-controlled airspace.

 

In his statement, Yaalon also seemed to raise that possibility, saying Israel would respond strongly to perceived threats “whether they stemmed from a mistake or were deliberate”.

Or weren’t a mistake at all, and the attack was just another provocation seeking to escalate what is already a war of interenational aggression headed by a US-led coalition.

So while the West, and Arab nations have tipped their hand, it now remains to be seen just how, and on whose side, Russia and China will join this conflict which is a nothing but a rerun of the Syrian near-war of summer 2013, instigated by the grand puppet masters, Qatar and Saudi Arabia’s Bandar bin Sultan.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1uD2uBX Tyler Durden

• U.S., backed by Arabs, launches first strikes on fighters in Syria (Reuters, BBG)
• But not all all back: Turkey Bars Kurds From Entering Syria to Fight Islamic State (BBG)
• Dollar Weakens on Airstrikes; Europe Stocks Drop (BBG)
• Ready for Rate Riot? Emerging Markets Set to Follow Fed (BBG)
• El-Erian “would have done things differently” (Reuters)
• White House fence jumper had ammunition, machete in car, prosecutors say (WaPo)
• Eurozone business growth slows in September, PMI survey finds (BBC)
• Shrinking Bond Desks Taken by Journeymen as Masters Fade (BBG)
• Manufacturing Rebound Relieves Growth Concerns in China (BBG)
• Former Trader Quits Playboy Club to Open Own Restaurant (BBG)
• Allergan Rejected Offer From Actavis (WSJ)
• Norway’s Yara, CF in talks to create $27 billion global fertilizer producer (Reuters)
• FTC Considers Challenge to Food Merger (WSJ)
• Bandits Steal Berlin IPhone Cash, Showing Payment Hurdle (BBG)
• Argentina’s Fernandez to meet billionaire investor Soros in New York (Reuters)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

* The U.S. and several Middle Eastern allies struck Islamic State militants in Syria, the Pentagon said on Monday night, expanding a U.S.-led campaign into a country that has been a haven for the extremist group. Four or more Arab countries, including Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, signed up to take part in strikes in Syria, with some flying alongside the U.S. warplanes, according to an allied official. (http://on.wsj.com/1qoFNxf)

* The Treasury Department tightened tax rules on Monday to deter U.S. companies from moving their legal headquarters to lower-tax countries, part of a White House effort to slow a wave of so-called corporate inversions that effectively reduce federal revenues. (http://on.wsj.com/1C7RZep)

* Pharmaceutical company Actavis PLC recently made a bid for Allergan Inc but the Botox-maker rejected the proposal and is closing in on its own takeover. Allergan is now in advanced talks to buy Salix Pharmaceuticals Ltd, said people familiar with the matter. (http://on.wsj.com/1pbdxyT)

* A court ruling in the Lehman Brothers Holding claims case hurt a swath of managers, including some of the biggest firms in the industry, that have in recent years enjoyed a steady stream of profits from the claims. The losses are among the first for hedge funds due to Lehman claims, managers and investors in hedge funds say. (http://on.wsj.com/XZoMn5)

* The Federal Trade Commission is considering a possible antitrust lawsuit to block the planned merger of Sysco Corp and US Foods Inc, concerned that combining the nation’s two biggest food suppliers to restaurants, schools and other institutions could threaten competition, according to people familiar with the matter. (http://on.wsj.com/1B2FD4U)

* Arab Bank PLC, the largest financial institution in Jordan, was found liable for providing assistance to Hamas in the first U.S. jury verdict against a bank in a civil terrorism-finance case. The verdict in U.S. District Court in Brooklyn potentially opens the door to more litigation under the Antiterrorism Act of 1990, which gives U.S. victims of international terrorism recourse in federal court. (http://on.wsj.com/1qoF4w7)

* As the housing recovery continues in fits and starts, black and Hispanic borrowers are receiving a smaller share of mortgage loans, according to Federal Reserve data. The report, released on Monday, comes as some lenders face lawsuits alleging they aren’t making enough loans to minority borrowers. (http://on.wsj.com/1wI6DWO)

 

FT

German drugs and chemicals maker Merck KGaA agreed to buy U.S.-based Sigma-Aldrich Corp for $17 billion, hoping to better focus on specialty chemicals and laboratory supplies and depend less on its pharmaceuticals business.

Apple Inc sold a record 10 million of its latest phones, iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 plus, in their weekend debut. Barclays Plc will be fined close to 38 million pounds ($62.19 million) for failing to safeguard clients’ funds. Britain’s Financial Conduct Authority could announce the fine as early as Tuesday. Britain’s biggest grocer Tesco Plc said its first-half profits were overstated by about 250 million pounds, calling on Deloitte to conduct a “comprehensive review” of its accounts. Four senior directors have been suspended while the investigation is completed.

British challenger bank Aldermore <IPO-ALDE.L>, owned by private equity group AnaCap, said it planned to float on the London Stock Exchange next month. The move follows that of OneSavings Bank, which in June became the first bank to list in London in more than a decade. (1 US dollar = 0.7786 euro) (1 US dollar = 0.6111 British pound)

 

NYT

* U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew announced rules on Monday that are aimed at making it more difficult for American companies to lower their tax bills by relocating overseas and that would wipe out the benefits for those that do. The changes will only affect deals that were completed starting Monday.(http://nyti.ms/1mFQUqP)

* Two Federal Reserve officials who have warned loudly and persistently that the Fed is overreaching in its economic stimulus campaign plan to retire next year after completing terms on the Fed’s policy-making committee. The two men, and a handful of like-minded officials, have been marginalized in recent years as their warnings that inflation would accelerate have failed to materialize. (http://nyti.ms/1wHYHVB)

* An online report on Monday by the technology news site TechCrunch claimed that Apple Inc would “shut down” Beats’ streaming service, Beats Music, citing anonymous sources. That report quickly ricocheted around the Internet, but in a rare public statement, an Apple spokesman flatly denied it. But the company’s plans for the Beats Music brand are unclear. (http://nyti.ms/1mFSUj0)

* Tesco Plc, the large British grocery retailer, disclosed on Monday that it had overstated its expected half-year profit by about $400 million and that it had suspended four senior executives. (http://nyti.ms/Zbzecn)

* As hotels in the United States continue on a surge in spending on renovations, an ever-more-important factor driving this investment is the growing clout of review sites like TripAdvisor Inc and Yelp Inc, and booking sites like Hotels.com. Hotel brands are reading what trav
elers say about them – and their competitors – and planning their investments accordingly. (http://nyti.ms/1x4c4SP)

* The Securities and Exchange Commission announced on Monday that it had approved a payment of between $30 million and $35 million, to an unnamed individual who lives in a foreign country, for providing information that helped federal authorities “detect an ongoing fraud”. This is the largest ever reward given by the SEC under the whistle-blower law. (http://nyti.ms/1mGfd86)

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** John Tory has opened up a 22-point lead in the race to be Toronto mayor, with last-minute addition Doug Ford in second and Olivia Chow in third, new polling numbers show. (http://bit.ly/1rkuOKu)

** Netflix Inc is refusing to provide the national broadcast regulator, Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission (CRTC), with a range of sensitive data about its online streaming operations in Canada, citing concerns the data might not be kept confidential. (http://bit.ly/1C8K1BQ)

** U.S.-based Target Corp may finally be making some headway in Canada. After launching in Canada last year with prices that consumers found too high, it is now starting to offer prices that beat those at discount archrival Wal-Mart Canada Corp, a new study finds. (http://bit.ly/ZbGwN0)

NATIONAL POST

** The Liberals have won a majority government in New Brunswick on a promise to rebuild the province’s roads and bridges to create jobs, turfing the Progressive Conservatives from power after one term in office. At 32, Brian Gallant is slated to become the country’s youngest premier and leads the Liberals to their fourth straight election victory in the past year in Eastern Canada after wins by the party in Ontario, Quebec and Nova Scotia. (http://bit.ly/1qpdVsZ)

** Three Afghanistan National Army officers who disappeared during a break from military training at a U.S. military base in Massachusetts are now in custody at the Canadian border, authorities confirmed on Monday. (http://bit.ly/1qppEYq)

** Competing groups of creditors at the Nortel Networks Corp bankruptcy trial are focusing on the legal interpretation of a 10-year-old agreement to determine how to divide billions of dollars in proceeds from the sale of Nortel’s patents and intellectual property. (http://bit.ly/1wIWTeO)

 

China

CHINA DAILY

– Beijing will adhere to its Hong Kong policy and will continue its support for advancing democracy in the special administrative region.

CHINA SECURITIES JOURNAL

– China Vanke Co Ltd is seeking shareholder authorisation to raise up to 15 billion yuan ($2.44 billion) through debt financing.

SHANGHAI SECURITIES NEWS

– The China Securities Regulatory Commission, the country’s stock market regulator, will normalise its inspection of the underwriting process in initial public offerings.

– The Dalian Commodity Exchange said it is preparing for the launch of corn starch futures.

People’s Daily

– The anti-corruption campaign is a war China must win in a bid to purify the political eco-system, the paper said in a commentary.

 

Britain

The Guardian

PHONES 4U: 2,400 STAFF SET TO LOSE JOBS AS MOBILE PHONE RETAILER SHUTS UP SHOP

More than 2,400 Phones 4u staff are to lose their jobs after plans to wind up the stricken mobile phone retailer were announced on Monday. (http://bit.ly/1pp1ZqW)

HINKLEY NUCLEAR REACTOR PROJECT GAINS EU APPROVAL, LEAK REVEALS British plans for a nuclear renaissance centred on a nuclear reactor in Somerset, England achieved a breakthrough when a nine-month European Union state aid investigation ended with a call for Brussels to approve the project. (http://bit.ly/1rs0mOU)

The Telegraph TESCO CHAIRMAN RICHARD BROADBENT UNDER PRESSURE TO RESIGN OVER ACCOUNTING CHAOS Tesco Plc Chairman Richard Broadbent is under pressure to resign after it emerged that the company’s board dismissed warnings from its own auditor about how it was accounting for commercial deals with suppliers, months before a dramatic profit warning. (http://bit.ly/1DtXANQ)

Sky News

BARCLAYS HIT BY 38 MLN STG FINE OVER CLIENT ASSETS

Barclays Plc will be hit by the latest in a string of financial penalties this week when the financial regulator hands out a 38 million pound ($62.19 million) fine for failing to ensure adequate protection for clients’ funds. (http://bit.ly/1x1BNvc)

CARPHONE PRESSES ON WITH PHONES 4u REPAIR JOB Dixons Carphone Plc plans to make a statement on Tuesday that it is still interested in acquiring between 50 and 100 shops from Phones 4u’s, according to sources close to the matter. (http://bit.ly/1tVVYbE)

The Independent

ALDERMORE BANK HEADS FOR LONDON FLOAT British challenger bank Aldermore <IPO-ALDE.L> has announced plans to float on the London Stock Exchange, which could see the bank valued at up to 900 million pounds. (http://ind.pn/1uTxwaX) (1 US dollar = 0.6110 British pounds)

 

 

Fly on the Wall Pre-Market Buzz

ECONOMIC REPORTS

Domestic economic reports scheduled for today include:

FHFA house price index for July at 9:00–consensus up 0.5%
Markit manufacturing PMI for September at 9:45–consensus 58.0
Richmond Fed manufacturing index for September at 10:00–consensus 10

ANALYST RESEARCH

Upgrades

Apogee Enterprises (APOG) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Northland
Ferro (FOE) upgraded to Buy from Hold at KeyBanc
Garrison Capital (GARS) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at RW Baird
SVB Financial (SIVB) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays
ShoreTel (SHOR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at SunTrust
Teck Resources (TCK) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Bernstein

Downgrades

Analog Devices (ADI) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair
Cameco (CCJ) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill
City National (CYN) resumed with a Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo
Clorox (CLX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
Clorox (CLX) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at B. Riley
Dick’s Sporting (DKS) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair
Equinix (EQIX) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo
Fluor (FLR) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo
Gordmans Stores (GMAN) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord
Nanometrics (NANO) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord
ON Semiconductor (ONNN) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan
Siemens (SIEGY) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays

Initiations

BankUnited (BKU) resumed with an Outperform at Wells Fargo
Cenovu
s Energy (CVE) initiated with an Overweight at JPMorgan
Chevron (CVX) initiated with a Neutral at JPMorgan
Continental Resources (CLR) initiated with a Buy at Canaccord
EverBank Financial (EVER) initiated with an Outperform at Wells Fargo
Exxon Mobil (XOM) initiated with a Neutral at JPMorgan
First Interstate (FIBK) initiated with an Outperform at Wells Fargo
First Niagara (FNFG) initiated with a Market Perform at Wells Fargo
First Republic Bank (FRC) resumed with an Outperform at Wells Fargo
HollyFrontier (HFC) initiated with a Neutral at JPMorgan
Immunomedics (IMMU) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) initiated with a Sector Perform at RBC Capital
Investors Bancorp (ISBC) initiated with an Outperform at Wells Fargo
Laredo Petroleum (LPI) initiated with an Outperform at Raymond James
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) initiated with an Overweight at JPMorgan
Phillips 66 (PSX) initiated with an Overweight at JPMorgan
Progenics (PGNX) initiated with a Hold at Jefferies
Rexnord (RXN) initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer
SVB Financial (SIVB) resumed with an Outperform at Wells Fargo
Sangamo (SGMO) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies
Signature Bank (SBNY) resumed with a Market Perform at Wells Fargo
Tesoro (TSO) initiated with a Neutral at JPMorgan
Ultragenyx (RARE) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies
Valero (VLO) initiated with a Neutral at JPMorgan
Webster Financial (WBS) initiated with an Outperform at Wells Fargo

COMPANY NEWS

Treasury, IRS announced plans to reduce inversion tax benefits (MYL, ABT, MDT, COV, VRX, AGN)
Philips (PHG) said it will separate Lighting, HealthTech into two companies
FCA fined Barclays (BCS) GBP 37.75M for putting assets at risk
Wells Fargo Advisers (WFC) fined $5M by SEC for failing to maintain controls
Adobe (ADBE) acquired privately held Aviary, a developer of mobile Software Development Kits for the delivery of creative apps
Tekmira (TKMR) to collaborate with international consortium researching Ebola
Supernus (SUPN) reaffirmed that it is on track to become cash flow breakeven by year-end and that the company will explore a broad range of strategic opportunities
McGraw Hill Financial (MHFI) to sell McGraw Hill Construction to Symphony Tech Group for $320M in cash

EARNINGS

Companies that missed consensus earnings expectations include:
Ascena Retail (ASNA)

WABCO (WBC) sees FY14 EPS $5.45-$5.75, consensus $5.62

Papa John’s (PZZA) backs FY14 EPS view, including FOCUS, $1.64-$1.72, consensus $1.72
Ascena Retail (ASNA) sees FY15 adjusted EPS 90c-$1.00, consensus $1.25

NEWSPAPERS/WEBSITES

Allergan (AGN) rejected buyout bid from Actavis (ACT), in advanced talks for Salix (SLXP), WSJ reports (VRX)
Apple (AAPL) denies shutdown of Beats Music, Re/code reports
HP (HPQ) was primarily interested in EMC’s (EMC) VMware (VMW) stake, Re/code reports
Almunia: Google (GOOG) must improve EU settlement or will face charges, WSJ says
Sysco (SYY), US Foods merger could be blocked by FTC, WSJ reports
Barclays (BCS) CEO defends bank against dark pool allegations, CNBC reports
Icahn has not sold any of Herbalife (HLF) position, FBN’s Gasparino says

SYNDICATE

Alimera Sciences (ALIM) enters $35M at-the-market agreement with Cowen
Genesis Energy (GEL) files to sell 4M common units representing limited partners
Grupo Aval (AVAL) 73.529M share IPO priced at $13.50
Parkway Properties (PKY) 10M share Secondary priced at $18.60
SB Financial (SBFG) files to sell 1.5M depositary shares
W.P. Carey (WPC) files to sell 4M shares of common stock

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1rl9ZhZ Tyler Durden

Oh where to start.

First it was the Treasury department announcing its first major escalation in the crackdown against tax inversions, which has sent European healthcare stocks lower over concerns there will be nobody left to “merge” with them. Then it was the US announcing that the coalition of nations favorably inclined toward a Qatar gas pipeline crossing Syria had commenced bombing the sovereign nation without Assad’s approval, a violation of sovereignty which we are positive the UN will get right on top of, then it was the HSBC China PMI number confirming it is a complete joke, after it beat expectations just in time for Rubber prices to join iron at fresh record lows (some rebound there). A somewhat more realistic number came out of Europe’s PMI which not only missed across the board, with the manufacturing PMI sliding to 50.5 (from 50.7) the lowest since August 2014, but the German number dropping again from 51.4 to 50.3, (below the Estimate 51.2) leading to more triple-dip concerns. It wasn’t just Europe’s manufacturing: while there was no Tesco openly fabricating data, today’s session has also seen negative sentiment stemming from further profit warnings, this time from Raiffeisen Bank (-10.9%) and Tate & Lyle (-16.3%) which have both crashed as two themes, Russia and the tapped out consumer, once again rear their ugly head. Finally, Israel decided to do its own thing and took down a Syrian fighter jet which it said was acting “in a threatening manner” whatever that means. Clearly Israel wants a piece of the Syrian action, now that the US itself is leading the bombing campaign.

In short, a bevy of bad to worse news that any other day would have sent the futures soaring on hopes of even more stimulus, although with the US talking of hiking rates, China pouring cold water over expectations of more easing and Europe unsure what it is doing, today’s plethora of negative news is actually, gasp, bad news!

Most north Asian equity markets are trading lower overnight. Bourses in Korea and Taiwan are down -0.4% and -0.3% respectively. Asian credit markets are also feeling slightly softer this morning, perhaps taking the weaker lead from the US session yesterday. Indeed the S&P 500 (-0.80%) saw its fourth sub-2000 crossing since it first reached the milestone about a month ago. The disappointing US existing home sales (5.05M v 5.20M expected) and Chicago Fed Nat Activity (-0.21 v +0.33 expected) probably didn’t help but in reality the market weakness was fairly broad based largely driven by Consumer Discretionary (-1.45%), Energy (-1.36%) and Industrials (-1.10%). Asian stocks trade mixed with Shenzhen Composite, ASX 200 outperforming and Sensex, Nikkei underperforming. MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.2% to 143.6. Nikkei 225 down 0.7%, Hang Seng down 0.5%, Kospi down 0.5%, Shanghai Composite up 0.9%, ASX up 1%, Sensex down 1.6%. 6 out of 10 sectors rise with telecom, health care outperforming and information technology, energy underperforming.

European stocks, U.S. equity index futures fall after Euro area PMI for Aug. missed ests., while bond yields for German, Spanish, U.K. debt fall. Copper rises with positive Chinese PMI data, while oil gains as OPEC discusses output cut. European health care stocks among largest underperformers as U.S. plans tighter rules on tax inversion M&A. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, FHFA House Price Index due later in U.S. 0 out of 19 Stoxx 600 sectors rise; basic resources, chemicals outperform, autos, retail underperform. 6.3% of Stoxx 600 members gain, 93.7% decline. Eurostoxx 50 -1.1%, FTSE 100 -1.2%, CAC 40 -1.5%, DAX -0.9%, IBEX -1%, FTSEMIB -0.8%, SMI -0.4%.

Aside from the Chinese PMI data, which is so fabricated it is hardly even worth talking about, here is what Goldman had to say about Europe’s PMIs:

The Euro area Composite PMI fell from 52.5 to 52.3 in September, slightly below Consensus expectations but marginally above our forecast (Cons: 52.5, GS: 52.2). The Composite PMI declined on the back of a loss in momentum recorded both in the manufacturing and the service sectors. Germany registered a small increase in the Composite PMI while the French PMI posted a small decline.

 

1. The Manufacturing PMI fell marginally from 50.7 to 50.5 in September, its lowest reading since August 2013. The Service PMI registered a 0.3pt decline and now it stands at 52.8 (Chart 1). The Consensus expectations were for a smaller decline in both the Service and the Manufacturing surveys

 

2. The breakdown of the aggregate indexes is almost unchanged since the last month. Forward looking indicators in the Services PMI showed some improvements, with the largest increase in ‘Business Expectations’ (up by 1pt). On the other hand, indicators that try to gauge sentiment about future activity in the manufacturing sector were weaker than the previous month.

 

3. In addition to Euro area aggregate, Flash PMIs were released for Germany and France. The German Composite PMI edged up from 53.7 to 54.0, while the French Composite PMI printed 49.1 in September, 0.4pt below the previous month’s reading. The gap between the surveys in the two countries thus widened by 0.5pt in September, but remains below 6, the average gap recorded since January 2013 (Chart 2). In contrast with the aggregate figure, the Manufacturing PMI eased in Germany, but it was stronger in France.

 

4. September is the last month of the third quarter of the year, but Eurostat will publish its preliminary estimate of Euro area Q3 GDP growth only on 14 November. We can, nevertheless, extract some information about growth in activity in the current quarter from the release of September Flash PMIs. Based on historical correlations, a reading of 52.3 is associated with +0.2%qoq GDP growth. Our CAI points to similar growth in September (+0.9% annl.). For Q3 as whole, the average Composite PMI is 52.8, indicative of growth of around +0.3%qoq.

In the US we look forward to the release of the Richmond Fed manufacturing index for September and the FHFA house price index for July.

European equities fall for second day, their largest drop since Aug. 8, as Euro-area manufacturing, services PMIs both fall to lowest levels of 2014.
Euro rises vs. USD. Asian stocks trade mixed after China PMI beat estimates. Oil, gold rise with copper and cotton. U.S.
equity index futures down, as are yields on U.S., German 10-year sovereign debt. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, FHFA House Price Index  due later in U.S.

Market Wrap

• S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 1981
• Stoxx 600 down 1% to 343.1
• US 10Yr yield down 1bps to 2.55%
• German 10Yr yield down 0bps to 1.01%
• MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.2% to 143.6
• Gold spot up 0.8% to $1225.5/oz

Bulletin Headline Summary from Bloomberg and RanSquawk

• Plans by the US treasury to limit US Co.’s ability to carry out beneficial tax inversion deals and further European profit warnings send European equities lower.
• Softer equities have provided fixed income products with a boost as the German 10yr yield breaks back below 1.00%, while JPY and spot gold benefit from the safe-haven bid.
• Looking ahead, attention turns towards any comments from Fed’s Kocherlakota and ECB’s Costa and the USD 29bln 2yr Note auction from the US Treasury at 1800BST/1200CDT.
• Treasuries gain amid weak euro- area data, U.S. airstrikes in Syria before week’s auctions commence with $29b 2Y notes.
• 2Ys to be sold today yield 0.595% in WI trading; stopout at that level would be highest since April 2011
• Markit’s gauges of euro-area manufacturing and services slowe
  d in September to their weakest pace this year, adding to signs the economy is faltering
• German manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3 in September from  51.4 in August as new orders fell
• HSBC/Markit’s preliminary China PMI increased to 50.5 in September, marching the highest reading in a Bloomberg survey and up from August’s 50.2
• Prime Minister Cameron intends to press ahead with plans to give more powers rapidly to the Scottish Parliament and will tell voters the opposition Labour Party is to blame if it fails to agree to constitutional changes for England at the same time
• As bond-trading volumes have shrunk, so have the number of jobs, leaving even some of the most senior traders and salesmen moving from firm to firm
• The structure of the U.S. bond market is “broken,” BlackRock said, “and the extent of the breakage is masked by the current environment of low interest rates and low volatility”
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew’s crackdown on inversions heightened the tension between the administration and companies considering obtaining a foreign  address to lower their tax bills
• Lew and Obama made clear that they were prepared to use rule-making authority to try stop some deals, even at the risk of a backlash from the companies and from Republicans
• The U.S. and its Arab allies launched a barrage of airstrikes against Islamic State positions in Syria in an operation the Pentagon said was “ongoing”
• Israel shot down a Syrian fighter jet after it infiltrated Israeli air space, the Israeli army said today
• Sovereign yields lower. Asian stocks mixed, European stocks fall, U.S. equity-index futures decline. WTI crude, gold and copper fall

US Data Docket

• 9:00am: FHFA House Price Index, July, est. 0.5% (prior 0.4%)
• 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, Sept., est. 58 (prior 57.9)
• 10:00am: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Sept., est. 10 (prior 12)

Central Banks

• 9:00am: Fed’s Bullard speaks in St. Louis
• 9:20am: Fed’s Powell speaks in St. Louis
• 9:30am: Fed’s George speaks in St. Louis
• 2:00pm: Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks in Marquette, Mich.
• 9:15pm: Fed’s George speaks in Cheyenne, Wyo.
• POMO: 11:00am: Fed to purchase $1.6b-$1.9b notes in 2019-2020

ASIA

Asian equity markets traded mixed as today’s HSBC Chinese Manufacturing PMI (50.5 vs. Exp. 50.0 (Prev. 50.2) beat expectations and avoided contraction territory although some key components continued to decline. The headline reading allayed fears of a full-blown slowdown of growth in China however the employment sub index fell to its lowest level since Feb’09, while the HSBC Chinese Chief Economist added they continue to expect more monetary easing from the PBoC in order to steady the recovery. The Shanghai Comp held onto its gains (+0.87%). However, source comments after the Asian close said there are no plans to add dramatic stimulus as the Chinese economy slows. Japanese markets were closed due to the Equinox holiday.

FIXED INCOME

Bund futures benefited from the initial equity weakness, pushing the German 10yr yield below 1% for the first time since early September, with the squeeze higher in Bunds exacerbated by plans to limit Germany’s bond issuance in the coming quarter by EUR 4bln and lacklustre Eurozone PMIs. As such, both T-notes are taking their cue from Bunds, as Gold also benefits from its safe haven status. Furthermore, the GR/GE spread is wider by around 18bps after yesterday’s source reports that Greece has asked EU authorities to postpone their Sept. visit from Troika. Finally, caution has also been spurred following reports the US military and partner nations have carried out striking ISIS in Syria and news that the Israeli army have shot down a Syrian warplane near its border.

Pan Euro Agg month-end extensions +0.08yrs (Prev. +0.03yrs), 12-month average +0.07yrs (IFR)

EQUITIES

European and US index futures fell from cash open with the likes of Shire (-5.9%), Smith & Nephew (-3.1%) and AstraZeneca (-5.2%) all succumbing to reports that the US Treasury unveiled plans to limit US companies’ ability to benefit from tax inversion purchases of foreign companies. Today’s session has also seen negative sentiment stemming from further profit warnings, this time from Raiffeisen Bank (-10.9%) and Tate & Lyle (-16.3%) who are both trading sharply lower.

FX

Mixed German and French advanced PMI numbers failed to dent the EUR, as sharp demand for EUR/GBP buoys the currency after the US Treasury’s plans to limit international tax inversion purchases, limit future M&A flow and weaken GBP. The JPY has been the primary beneficiary, with weak US yields sending the USD lower leading USD/JPY to pull away from the six-year high printed on Friday at 109.46 and weakening the USD-index. Elsewhere, AUD was initially the main beneficiary from the Chinese data, breaching 0.8900 to the upside where there is a large option expiry (844mln) rolling off at today’s 10am (1500BST) NY cut.

COMMODITIES

The move lower in global equities has provided spot gold with a safe-haven bid, with the precious complex firmly in the green after failing to find any sustained reaction following the Chinese manufacturing PMI number. Palladium outperforms the precious metals complex after failing to make a sustained break below its 200DMA with analysts at UBS also noting the banks’ US clients prefer palladium over platinum. In the energy complex, both Brent and WTI crude futures trade with modest gains heading into the North American open following the overnight Chinese-inspired gains, while failing to see any further upside during the European session ahead of today’s API report.

* * *

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight recap

Today is Markit flash PMI day with the September readings for China, Europe and the US the highlights. With Chinese and European data weak of late and with the US relatively strong, today’s numbers are going to further influence the market’s expectations for monetary policy changes over the coming months especially with central banks seemingly on the turn across the globe, even if they may be turning in different directions. It seems we’re leaving behind the blanket liquidity world which has given us low volatility over the past two years. As we discuss in a new credit strategy note published earlier this morning, even if markets continue to be positive over the coming months we think volatility is bound to pick up post Fed QE and possibly pre-ECB QE. Before we touch on this in more detail the Chinese data is already out which is slightly better than expected at the headline level.

Indeed the HSBC China Manufacturing PMI flash reading for September came in at 50.5. This was ahead of consensus of 50.0 and the August reading of 50.2. The underlying details of the report were a bit more mixed though. Both new orders (+1ppts to 52.3) and output (unchanged at 51.8) stayed in expansionary territory but the shine was somewhat offset by declines in input prices (-2.7ppts to 46.2), output prices (-2.5ppts to 46.4) and employment (-0.5ppt to 46.9). In terms of market the AUD is rallying strongly overnight with the currency now at a intraday high of 0.891. Chinese equities are also trading firmer after yesterday’s sell-off though with the HSCEI and Shanghai Composite up +0.3% and +0.6%, respectively. Appetite for Chinese risk assets were also supported by news that major Chinese banks may ease mortgage lending in order to support the housing market. Local media 21st Century Business reported that the criteria for first home buyers’ loans may be eased and existing home owners who have paid outstanding mortgages may be considered available for first home status. Chinese interbank money market condition continues to
east. The 7-day interbank repo rate fell 13bps overnight to 3.09%, which is over 200bps off the recent highs in July.

Away from China, most north Asian equity markets are trading lower overnight. Bourses in Korea and Taiwan are down -0.4% and -0.3% respectively. Asian credit markets are also feeling slightly softer this morning, perhaps taking the weaker lead from the US session yesterday. Indeed the S&P 500 (-0.80%) saw its fourth sub-2000 crossing since it first reached the milestone about a month ago. The disappointing US existing home sales (5.05M v 5.20M expected) and Chicago Fed Nat Activity (-0.21 v +0.33 expected) probably didn’t help but in reality the market weakness was fairly broad based largely driven by Consumer Discretionary (-1.45%), Energy (-1.36%) and Industrials (-1.10%).

It was a relatively quiet day for headlines so some attention was paid to the Fed’s Dudley when he spoke to Bloomberg. The NY Fed President was fairly balanced on his views on policy. On one hand noting that being at the zero lower bound interest rate is ‚not a particularly comfortable place to be? and that he’d like to raise interest rates at some time during his tenure. However on the other hand he also said that the move depends on the progress of economic recovery against Fed’s goals and that the Fed should be patient on rate hikes and said that he is not going to ‚raise interest rates for the sake of raising them?. Those comments along with generally a risk-off day in markets provided some support for Treasuries with the 10yr about 1bps lower at 2.56%.

On the increased volatility topic which we touched on in the opening para, this morning we published a credit strategy outlook update entitled ” A 2-Steps Forward, 1-Step Back Market”. Overall we remain constructive on credit but feel that we are entering a new phase of this cycle and one that will be considerably more volatile than the relatively smooth experience of the past two years. While fundamental factors continue to be supportive of default rates staying at historically low levels, the technical backdrop for credit and risk assets in general is arguably less supportive than it has been. With the Fed about to end asset purchases the plug will be somewhat pulled on the extreme liquidity to which markets have become accustomed and even with the ECB about to embark on private QE it is far from the scale of the Fed’s QE. Full European QE might be the big theme of 2015 but it may not be immediate or have as powerful an impact on markets as that seen from the Fed. This coupled with lower investor cash balances and continued high issuance will likely mean periods of higher volatility even if tighter spreads win out in the end while the cycle is ongoing. So we’re moving towards what might be described as a 2-step forward, 1-step back market. The document will be on your email around an hour before this one. Give us a shout if you didn’t receive it.

Elsewhere, geopolitics could regain some market focus now that Scotland’s referendum is behind us. In the middle east, the US is said to have began its bombing on Islamic militants in Syria on Monday night which is seen to be a sharp escalation of the US military role in the region. According to the FT, the Pentagon said that the US and ‘partner nation forces’ (unnamed) were undertaking military action against members of the Isis. The attacks used a mix of fighter, bomber and Tomahawk Land attack missiles.

On the other side of the globe, the sharp sell-off in Brazil was a notable mover for EM yesterday. The BOVESPA fell 1.7%, local 10yr rates rose 28bps to 11.9%, whilst the 5yr CDS for Brazil sovereign also widened by 17bp to 159bp all on talks that the latest opinion polls could show a further increase in support for President Dilma Rousseff’s bid for re-election. We have more polls scheduled to be released over the week so let’s see if things take a different direction but in reality recent weakness in commodities is also not helping Brazil’s fundamentals.

Finally let’s look at the day ahead. In Europe we have the important flash PMI September readings for the Euroarea, France and Germany. Market expectation is for general stability in the French reads with the manufacturing PMI expected to rise marginally to 47 (from 46.9), the services PMI to fall slightly to 50.1 (from 50.3) and the composite also expected to drop slightly to 49.4 (from 49.5). The German numbers are expected to marginally drop across the board with the manufacturing, services and composite forecast to come in at 51.2 (vs 51.4 previously), 54.6 (vs 54.9 previously) and 53.5 (vs 53.7 previously). The broader eurozone numbers are also expected to come in broadly in line with where they were a month ago with the manufacturing number expected in at 50.6 (vs 50.7 previously), the services number at 53 (vs 53.1 previously) and the composite at 52.5 (vs 52.5 previously). Across the Atlantic the US September PMI is expected to be relatively steady at 58 (vs 57.9 previously) but clearly at a completely different level to Europe.

Flash PMIs aside we can also look forward to the release of the Richmond Fed manufacturing index for September and the FHFA house price index for July (US). In the UK, we will get the latest public finance stats while Carney is also scheduled to deliver a speech at an Actuarial conference in Wales at 1.40pm UKT today.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1vbKGhK Tyler Durden

As the broad coalition crumbled, it appears Washington decided there was no time to waste:

• *U.S., PARTNER NATIONS STRIKING ISIS IN SYRIA: PENTAGON
• *U.S. USING FIGHTERS, BOMBERS, TOMAHAWKS TO ATTACK ISIS

 

NBC News reports the attack includes drones and is expecting to hit up to 20 targets. FOX is reporting Qatar is among the arab nation coalition (along with UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Bahrain), according to Lt. Col. Oliver North, which is rather surprising given their rather well-known support for Al-Nusra.

 

The bombing of isis was always the easy part. Who takes over was never made clear. And the devil is in the details, always

— Richard Engel (@RichardEngel) September 23, 2014

 

Clever to do strikes during un gen assembly. World leaders have to accept to deny. Isis strikes.

— Richard Engel (@RichardEngel) September 23, 2014

 

Told Isis had time to move into civilian areas. Hide weapons. Now theyre on move. Expect followup from all sides

— Richard Engel (@RichardEngel) September 23, 2014

 

Live Feed…

 

Fox reports…

 

As NBC News reports,

The United States launched airstrikes in Syria against ISIS targets, sources tell NBC News.  

 

 

The U.S. military plans to strike up to 20 targets — logistics, fuel and weapons depots; training sites; troop encampments; command and control sites; and headquarters for the Sunni fighters.

 

The U.S. military will deploy manned and unmanned air assets, including F-22s, B-1 bombers, F-16s, F-15s and F/A-18s.

 

The aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush is at the ready in the Persian Gulf, and the USS Arleigh Burke, a guided missile destroyer that fires Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles (TLAMs), is in the Red Sea.

*  *  *

Statement from Pentagon Press Secretary Rear Admiral John Kirby

TAMPA, Fla. – The Department of Defense released the following statement from Pentagon Press Secretary Rear Adm. John Kirby today:

 

“I can confirm that U.S. military and partner nation forces are undertaking military action against ISIL terrorists in Syria using a mix of fighter, bomber and Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles.”

 

“Given that these operations are ongoing, we are not in a position to provide additional details at this time.

 

The decision to conduct theses strikes was made earlier today by the U.S. Central Command commander under authorization granted him by the commander in chief.

 

We will provide more details later as operationally appropriate.”

*  *  *

And here is President Obama disagreeing with John McCain's call for airstrikes in Syria in 2012…

Sen. John McCain today called for the United States to begin air strikes against the government of Syria, but the Obama administration indicated it did not agree with his strategy.

 

“Foreign capitals across the world are looking to the United States to lead, especially now that the situation in Syria has become an armed conflict,” the Republican from Arizona said on the Senate floor. “But what they see is an administration still hedging its bets — on the one hand, insisting that Assad’s fall is inevitable, but on the other, unwilling even to threaten more assertive actions that could make it so.”

 

But a senior Obama administration official indicated to ABC News that the president and his advisers did not agree with the Republican senator.

 

“We share his concern and outrage about what’s taking place,” the official said. “We’re also concerned that further military intervention will accelerate the conflict on the ground and worsen the humanitarian situation without stopping the violence the Syrian regime is committing against its own people.”

 

The official said the U.S. “wants to keep putting pressure on the Assad regime.”

 

The official noted that the Syrian situation is very different from Libya in many key technical ways, that make them question how effective airstrikes against the Syrian regime would be.

*  *  *

Summarizing in under 140 characters…

U.S., PARTNER NATIONS STRIKING ISIS IN SYRIA: PENTAGON. Translation: Qatar bombing the Assad regime to clear way for its natgas pipeline

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 23, 2014

*  *  *

The damage has begun…

Ar-Raqqah #Syria under attack earlier http://ift.tt/1uBzSJe

— Zaid Benjamin (@zaidbenjamin) September 23, 2014

 

"The US has launched nearly 200 strikes against ISIS targets in Iraq." New strikes in Syria: http://t.co/EsaOSU1m1d http://ift.tt/1mGPhcv

— CBS News (@CBSNews) September 23, 2014

 

#Breaking: #IS instructs its fighters to leave its #HQs in ar-Raqqah to the rural areas – Activists #Syria

— Zaid Benjamin (@zaidbenjamin) September 23, 2014

 

#Breaking: 4 US missiles fall on Kafrdayan near Sarmada #Idlib – Activists http://ift.tt/1mGPhcC

— Zaid Benjamin (@zaidbenjamin) September 23, 2014

 

#Breaking: The palace of ar-Raqqah governor in destroyed in airstrikes – Activists http://ift.tt/1uTMQ7p

— Zaid Benjamin (@zaidbenjamin) September 23, 2014

*  *  *

As we have noted previously, Russia is entirely against a U.S. intervention in Syria which targets essentially the Assad regime for the simple reason that all such an action would do is fast track Qatar's pipeline to Europe and leave Gazprom, pardon the pun, in the cold… (via Maria Dubovikova of Al-Arabiya)

U.S. President Barak Obama addressed the nation on Wednesday, saying that the U.S. is going to expand the air campaign against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). He said he would not hesitate to authorize direct strikes against the militant group and its fighters in Syrian territory.

 

This decision, despite the demonstrated enthusiasm and assertiveness of the U.S. president, is very unlikely to be effective and could even worsen the crisis, pushing the situation to the point of no-return.

 

First of all, the Syrian government sustainably strikes the positions of the rebels, including ISIS, with relative success. Thus it is quite evident that airstrikes are not effective in fighting ISIS. According to the fighters’ revelations, they know where to hide in the case of airstrikes as they have gained experience in the years they have been fighting against Assad’s forces. This is common for both moderate Syrian opposition fighters and ISIS. Despite the will not to put boots on the ground, the U.S. has no other option if they intend to lead the international coalition. Moreover, it’s impossible to create an effective coalition and battlefront if Iran and Syria are not to be included.

 

No clear strategy

 

Obama has no clear strategy to fight ISIS and the terrorist group does not consider him a threat. It took a long time for Obama to admit that ISIS is a terrorist organization and a true threat. It took the beheading of American citizens to make Obama publically realize this. 

 

There are deep concerns that the U.S. will bomb not only ISIS positions in Syria, but also the Syrian government forces

 

It appeared to be a strong enough argument to start thinking about what should be done to stop the threat. For a rather long time, ISIS fighters were opportune terrorists as they were fighting against Damascus. The policy of dividing the terrorists into good terrorists and bad terrorists seems like a bad joke by the White House.

 

The decision announced by the U.S. president cannot be taken out context of America’s intense tensions with Russia. Russia was the third country to criticize the U.S. decision to bomb ISIS terrorists on Syrian territory, after the Syrian and Iranian governments. It’s not the best company to keep when opposing Obama’s decision in terms of international prestige and perception, however, it was to be expected.

 

The criticism came both from Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin and from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Alexander Lukashevich.

 

The criticism is based on one key point: without the Syrian government’s agreement and a UNSC mandate, the U.S. strikes in Syria would be a gross violation of international law and should be considered an act of aggression. Moreover, Moscow didn’t pass over in silence the double standard approach of Washington, as while helping Iraq to fight the terrorists on its territory, the U.S. president called for approval for more funding of the so-called armed opposition in Syria. Also, recent revelations by fighters in the pages of the Western press purport that the moderates in Syria are absolutely demoralized, weak and their ranks thinned out as the fighters join ISIS. In light of such reports, it is not clear which party Obama is going assist in this case and how his calls correspond to the real situation on the ground.

 

Heightened U.S. awareness

 

In general, Russia welcomes heightened U.S. awareness of the crisis – it is better late than never. Minister of Foreign Affairs Serguei Lavrov even criticized the U.S. on September 10 over its supposed double standard approach, saying that “the Americans are bombing them (ISIS) on Iraqi territory, but they do nothing with them in Syria.” Russia would even approve the U.S. strikes against ISIS fighters in case of Washington’s cooperation with Damascus on the matter.

 

But now there are deep concerns that the U.S. will bomb not only ISIS positions in Syria, but also the Syrian government forces. These concerns can be explained by the fact that evidently the strikes against ISIS could play into hands of Damascus and this doesn’t correspond with the U.S. interests. Taking into account that during all these years of the Syrian war the U.S. could have been trying to realize its plans to bomb Syria, they could take advantage of this situation.

 

If the U.S. bombs the positions of government forces, by mistake or with malicious intent, this would have doubly unpredictable consequences, both at the international and regional levels.

 

For sure, this will trigger a new crisis with Russia. The crisis of credibility in bilateral relations will reach the highest point. Russia will ultimately respond to the possible aggression. But how? It’s a big question with a difficult to predict answer. Moreover, possible strikes against Damascus’ forces will blow up the remains of credibility of international law, international systems and institutions. After the meeting over Iraq in Paris on Monday, Russia’s foreign minister stressed that the international community should build common action “on a solid foundation of the United Nations Charter and U.N. counter-terrorist instrument and mechanisms.”  The call to respect the U.N. Charter is clear and logical, however its solidness, as well as that of the U.N. system in general, is already in doubt. Any further violations of international law and U.N. principles will definitely be the last straw, leading to international chaos.

 

Regional level

 

On the regional level, the U.S.’s possible bombing of Damascus’ forces could strengthen ISIS. Relations with Iran could become more exacerbated, that could worsen the cooperation with it on other vital issues such as its nuclear program. The Iranian rejection of cooperating with the U.S. against ISIS is already an unpleasant turn,  mostly conditioned by already an committed mistake – Iran was not invited to the international conference on Iraq in Paris.

 

If the U.S. only strikes ISIS positions on Syrian territory and refrains from bombing Syrian government forces – this would be better for stability and be more predictable in terms of consequences, however it would never resolve the ISIS problem. Airstrikes are inefficient. A full-scale intense ground operation is needed. A true strategy is required, not a strategy of clichés, useless declarations and beautiful words for the ears of American citizens.

 

Moreover, it should be remembered that ISIS is primarily an idea, an idea making even Europeans and Americans leave their homes and join the group. Ideas cannot be defeated by bombs, actually, bombs make them stronger.

 

U.S. involvement in the anti- ISIS drive is indispensable, both in Syria and Iraq, especially taking into account its military capabilities. However, it is only positive as part of a sophisticated strategy approved by the international community. It is time the international community elaborate on the strategy to deal with ISIS.

*  *  *

…In other words, expect a Russian response shortly…

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1rkePfv Tyler Durden

As the broad coalition crumbled, it appears Washington decided there was no time to waste:

• *U.S., PARTNER NATIONS STRIKING ISIS IN SYRIA: PENTAGON
• *U.S. USING FIGHTERS, BOMBERS, TOMAHAWKS TO ATTACK ISIS

 

NBC News reports the attack includes drones and is expecting to hit up to 20 targets. FOX is reporting Qatar is among the arab nation coalition (along with UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Bahrain), according to Lt. Col. Oliver North, which is rather surprising given their rather well-known support for Al-Nusra.

 

The bombing of isis was always the easy part. Who takes over was never made clear. And the devil is in the details, always

— Richard Engel (@RichardEngel) September 23, 2014

 

Clever to do strikes during un gen assembly. World leaders have to accept to deny. Isis strikes.

— Richard Engel (@RichardEngel) September 23, 2014

 

Told Isis had time to move into civilian areas. Hide weapons. Now theyre on move. Expect followup from all sides

— Richard Engel (@RichardEngel) September 23, 2014

 

Live Feed…

 

Fox reports…

 

As NBC News reports,

The United States launched airstrikes in Syria against ISIS targets, sources tell NBC News.  

 

 

The U.S. military plans to strike up to 20 targets — logistics, fuel and weapons depots; training sites; troop encampments; command and control sites; and headquarters for the Sunni fighters.

 

The U.S. military will deploy manned and unmanned air assets, including F-22s, B-1 bombers, F-16s, F-15s and F/A-18s.

 

The aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush is at the ready in the Persian Gulf, and the USS Arleigh Burke, a guided missile destroyer that fires Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles (TLAMs), is in the Red Sea.

*  *  *

Statement from Pentagon Press Secretary Rear Admiral John Kirby

TAMPA, Fla. – The Department of Defense released the following statement from Pentagon Press Secretary Rear Adm. John Kirby today:

 

“I can confirm that U.S. military and partner nation forces are undertaking military action against ISIL terrorists in Syria using a mix of fighter, bomber and Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles.”

 

“Given that these operations are ongoing, we are not in a position to provide additional details at this time.

 

The decision to conduct theses strikes was made earlier today by the U.S. Central Command commander under authorization granted him by the commander in chief.

 

We will provide more details later as operationally appropriate.”

*  *  *

And here is President Obama disagreeing with John McCain's call for airstrikes in Syria in 2012…

Sen. John McCain today called for the United States to begin air strikes against the government of Syria, but the Obama administration indicated it did not agree with his strategy.

 

“Foreign capitals across the world are looking to the United States to lead, especially now that the situation in Syria has become an armed conflict,” the Republican from Arizona said on the Senate floor. “But what they see is an administration still hedging its bets — on the one hand, insisting that Assad’s fall is inevitable, but on the other, unwilling even to threaten more assertive actions that could make it so.”

 

But a senior Obama administration official indicated to ABC News that the president and his advisers did not agree with the Republican senator.

 

“We share his concern and outrage about what’s taking place,” the official said. “We’re also concerned that further military intervention will accelerate the conflict on the ground and worsen the humanitarian situation without stopping the violence the Syrian regime is committing against its own people.”

 

The official said the U.S. “wants to keep putting pressure on the Assad regime.”

 

The official noted that the Syrian situation is very different from Libya in many key technical ways, that make them question how effective airstrikes against the Syrian regime would be.

*  *  *

Summarizing in under 140 characters…

U.S., PARTNER NATIONS STRIKING ISIS IN SYRIA: PENTAGON. Translation: Qatar bombing the Assad regime to clear way for its natgas pipeline

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 23, 2014

*  *  *

The damage has begun…

Ar-Raqqah #Syria under attack earlier http://ift.tt/1uBzSJe

— Zaid Benjamin (@zaidbenjamin) September 23, 2014

 

"The US has launched nearly 200 strikes against ISIS targets in Iraq." New strikes in Syria: http://t.co/EsaOSU1m1d http://ift.tt/1mGPhcv

— CBS News (@CBSNews) September 23, 2014

 

#Breaking: #IS instructs its fighters to leave its #HQs in ar-Raqqah to the rural areas – Activists #Syria

— Zaid Benjamin (@zaidbenjamin) September 23, 2014

 

#Breaking: 4 US missiles fall on Kafrdayan near Sarmada #Idlib – Activists http://ift.tt/1mGPhcC

— Zaid Benjamin (@zaidbenjamin) September 23, 2014

 

#Breaking: The palace of ar-Raqqah governor in destroyed in airstrikes – Activists http://ift.tt/1uTMQ7p

— Zaid Benjamin (@zaidbenjamin) September 23, 2014

*  *  *

As we have noted previously, Russia is entirely against a U.S. intervention in Syria which targets essentially the Assad regime for the simple reason that all such an action would do is fast track Qatar's pipeline to Europe and leave Gazprom, pardon the pun, in the cold… (via Maria Dubovikova of Al-Arabiya)

U.S. President Barak Obama addressed the nation on Wednesday, saying that the U.S. is going to expand the air campaign against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). He said he would not hesitate to authorize direct strikes against the militant group and its fighters in Syrian territory.

 

This decision, despite the demonstrated enthusiasm and assertiveness of the U.S. president, is very unlikely to be effective and could even worsen the crisis, pushing the situation to the point of no-return.

 

First of all, the Syrian government sustainably strikes the positions of the rebels, including ISIS, with relative success. Thus it is quite evident that airstrikes are not effective in fighting ISIS. According to the fighters’ revelations, they know where to hide in the case of airstrikes as they have gained experience in the years they have been fighting against Assad’s forces. This is common for both moderate Syrian opposition fighters and ISIS. Despite the will not to put boots on the ground, the U.S. has no other option if they intend to lead the international coalition. Moreover, it’s impossible to create an effective coalition and battlefront if Iran and Syria are not to be included.

 

No clear strategy

 

Obama has no clear strategy to fight ISIS and the terrorist group does not consider him a threat. It took a long time for Obama to admit that ISIS is a terrorist organization and a true threat. It took the beheading of American citizens to make Obama publically realize this. 

 

There are deep concerns that the U.S. will bomb not only ISIS positions in Syria, but also the Syrian government forces

 

It appeared to be a strong enough argument to start thinking about what should be done to stop the threat. For a rather long time, ISIS fighters were opportune terrorists as they were fighting against Damascus. The policy of dividing the terrorists into good terrorists and bad terrorists seems like a bad joke by the White House.

 

The decision announced by the U.S. president cannot be taken out context of America’s intense tensions with Russia. Russia was the third country to criticize the U.S. decision to bomb ISIS terrorists on Syrian territory, after the Syrian and Iranian governments. It’s not the best company to keep when opposing Obama’s decision in terms of international prestige and perception, however, it was to be expected.

 

The criticism came both from Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin and from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Alexander Lukashevich.

 

The criticism is based on one key point: without the Syrian government’s agreement and a UNSC mandate, the U.S. strikes in Syria would be a gross violation of international law and should be considered an act of aggression. Moreover, Moscow didn’t pass over in silence the double standard approach of Washington, as while helping Iraq to fight the terrorists on its territory, the U.S. president called for approval for more funding of the so-called armed opposition in Syria. Also, recent revelations by fighters in the pages of the Western press purport that the moderates in Syria are absolutely demoralized, weak and their ranks thinned out as the fighters join ISIS. In light of such reports, it is not clear which party Obama is going assist in this case and how his calls correspond to the real situation on the ground.

 

Heightened U.S. awareness

 

In general, Russia welcomes heightened U.S. awareness of the crisis – it is better late than never. Minister of Foreign Affairs Serguei Lavrov even criticized the U.S. on September 10 over its supposed double standard approach, saying that “the Americans are bombing them (ISIS) on Iraqi territory, but they do nothing with them in Syria.” Russia would even approve the U.S. strikes against ISIS fighters in case of Washington’s cooperation with Damascus on the matter.

 

But now there are deep concerns that the U.S. will bomb not only ISIS positions in Syria, but also the Syrian government forces. These concerns can be explained by the fact that evidently the strikes against ISIS could play into hands of Damascus and this doesn’t correspond with the U.S. interests. Taking into account that during all these years of the Syrian war the U.S. could have been trying to realize its plans to bomb Syria, they could take advantage of this situation.

 

If the U.S. bombs the positions of government forces, by mistake or with malicious intent, this would have doubly unpredictable consequences, both at the international and regional levels.

 

For sure, this will trigger a new crisis with Russia. The crisis of credibility in bilateral relations will reach the highest point. Russia will ultimately respond to the possible aggression. But how? It’s a big question with a difficult to predict answer. Moreover, possible strikes against Damascus’ forces will blow up the remains of credibility of international law, international systems and institutions. After the meeting over Iraq in Paris on Monday, Russia’s foreign minister stressed that the international community should build common action “on a solid foundation of the United Nations Charter and U.N. counter-terrorist instrument and mechanisms.”  The call to respect the U.N. Charter is clear and logical, however its solidness, as well as that of the U.N. system in general, is already in doubt. Any further violations of international law and U.N. principles will definitely be the last straw, leading to international chaos.

 

Regional level

 

On the regional level, the U.S.’s possible bombing of Damascus’ forces could strengthen ISIS. Relations with Iran could become more exacerbated, that could worsen the cooperation with it on other vital issues such as its nuclear program. The Iranian rejection of cooperat
ing with the U.S. against ISIS is already an unpleasant turn,  mostly conditioned by already an committed mistake – Iran was not invited to the international conference on Iraq in Paris.

 

If the U.S. only strikes ISIS positions on Syrian territory and refrains from bombing Syrian government forces – this would be better for stability and be more predictable in terms of consequences, however it would never resolve the ISIS problem. Airstrikes are inefficient. A full-scale intense ground operation is needed. A true strategy is required, not a strategy of clichés, useless declarations and beautiful words for the ears of American citizens.

 

Moreover, it should be remembered that ISIS is primarily an idea, an idea making even Europeans and Americans leave their homes and join the group. Ideas cannot be defeated by bombs, actually, bombs make them stronger.

 

U.S. involvement in the anti- ISIS drive is indispensable, both in Syria and Iraq, especially taking into account its military capabilities. However, it is only positive as part of a sophisticated strategy approved by the international community. It is time the international community elaborate on the strategy to deal with ISIS.

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…In other words, expect a Russian response shortly…

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1rkePfv Tyler Durden