iftttwall – Page 26413

Malaysian PM Spent $130,000 In Embezzled Money At Hawaii Chanel Store … Then Met Obama For 18 Holes

Earlier today, we brought you the latest from 1MDB, the development bank-turned slush fund at the center of multiple international investigations.

For those who might still be unfamiliar with the story, Malaysian prime minister Najib Razak set up the fund more than five years ago with the help of Goldman and one of the firm’s rising stars named Tim Leissner.

Kuala Lumpur paid an exorbitant amount in underwriting fees to Goldman and as the years went by, it became readily apparent that 1MDB was nothing more than a checking account on which Najib came to depend when he needed money for a campaign – or for some Chanel bags Rosmah Mansour decided she just had to have (probably because Leissner’s wife Kimora Lee told her they were this season’s must haves).

Recall that back in December of 2014 we highlighted Najib’s “golf diplomacy” wherein the premier spent several days golfing with President Obama in Hawaii while back in Asia, more than 100,000 Malaysians were forced from their homes during a horrific flood. “How can you smile and happily play golf with Obama while the people at home are terrified and confused about what will happen to them and their property,” an opposition politician asked at the time.

That’s a good question and now we know that Najib wasn’t just golfing in Hawaii, he was also spending obscene amounts of money at Italian boutiques. As WSJ reports, Najib spent more than $130,000 at a Chanel store in Honolulu less than 48 hours before hitting the links with Obama. All told, Najib looks to have blown at least $15 million during the time period in question on “clothes, jewelry, and cars”

“Let me be very clear: I have never taken funds for personal gain as alleged by my political opponents—whether from 1MDB, SRC International or other entities, as these companies have confirmed,” Najib said last year.

Right. So the $56,000 he dropped at Signature Exotic Cars in 2011 and the €750,000 he spent at Swiss jeweler De Grisogono were just standard Prime Minister-type purchases.

Of course any US taxpayers reading this shouldn’t get too angry with Najib. After all, Obama spent more than $8 million on the very same Hawaii trip mentioned above. At least he had the decency to sink a 40 foot chip shot a year later in the same locale. Where’s your highlight Mr. Najib?

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1RQOHBK Tyler Durden

“We Are Prepared To Fight” – In Dramatic Shift NATO Changes East European Doctrine From “Assurance” To “Deterrence”

We are one step closer to another full-blown return of the cold war.

Yesterday, during a briefing in Latvia’s capital Riga, NATO Gen. Philip Breedlove said that NATO and the United States are switching their defense doctrine from assurance to deterrence in Eastern Europe in response to a “resurgent and aggressive Russia.”

The comments by Breedlove come a day after the Pentagon said it would begin continuous rotations of an additional armored brigade of about 4,200 troops in Eastern Europe beginning in early 2017.

“We are prepared to fight and win if we have to … our focus will expand from assurance to deterrence, including measures that vastly improve our overall readiness,” Breedlove said following talks with Baltic region NATO commanders.

“To the east and north we face a resurgent and aggressive Russia, and as we have continued to witness these last two years, Russia continues to seek to extend its influence on its periphery and beyond.”

As Defensenews reports, Eastern NATO members including the formerly Soviet-ruled Baltic states and Poland have been lobbying the alliance to increase its presence in the region. And now NATO is obliging, and in the process assuring that Russia will once again escalate in kind.

We also know the timing of the next major geopolitical tension between NATO and Russia: “In the spring of 2017 what we will bring to Europe, and then again put into the three Baltic nations, is an armored brigade fully enabled with command and control and all of the supporting equipment required,” Breedlove said.

Asked by AFP whether he expected other NATO members to match the upped US troop commitment, Breedlove said: “We would hope (so).”

“What we have seen is that when we led by coming here with company-sized formations after (Russia’s actions in) Crimea and Donbas, other nations have shown up now with company-sized formations.”

Russia has repeatedly warned against the permanent positioning of substantial forces from NATO along its border. Recall the last time Russia reacted to what it deemed was a NATO provocation, it stationed tactical, nuclear-capable missiles along the Polish border.

Meanwhile, this is a map that roughly lays out the regional balance of power between Russia and NATO:

Some more rational NATO members, like Germany, have been skeptical about any substantial permanent deployment, saying it could breach a 1997 agreement between the military alliance and Russia.

But the new US deployment avoids the issue because it is not technically permanently stationed in Eastern Europe, with brigades rotating in and out, US officials say.

We doubt such verbal loopholes will hold much sway with Vladimir Putin, but we are certain that when Russia retaliates to this latest escalation by NATO, all accusatory media hell will break loose.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1RQOFtq Tyler Durden

Baker Hughes Rig Count Analysis – Story of the Year in Oil Markets (Video)

By EconMatters

Today`s Baker Hughes Rig Count data spells real trouble for U.S. Oil Production for the remainder of 2016. At this pace, we are going to start having massive declines in U.S. Domestic Oil Production.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1Y4mV9o EconMatters

“Godfather” Of Technical Analysis ‘Nails’ The Correction

In Q1 2007, the so-called “godfather” of technical analysis Ralph Acampora told a ‘Goldilocks’-prone Larry Kudlow on CNBC that “I’m bullish, but I don’t think I am bullish enough…there’s new leadership.” That call turned out to be very close to top-ticking the market before it’s collapse. Fast-forward nine years and Ralph is back, proclaiming that Yellen has “lit a fire under the stock market… and the correction is over.”

“Bear market” confirmed on the day of the lows… then 14.5% later “the correction is over” and “The trend is up.”

h/t @NorthmanTrader

Two words – “nailed it!”

Of course, Mr. Acampora is not alone. Jim Cramer recently “nailed it” too…

Trade accordingly…

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1UYWYKv Tyler Durden

Hillary Clinton So Sick and Tired of Bernie Sanders Campaign Lies

The “fundamentally honest and trustworthy” Hillary Clinton said on the campaign trail she was “so sick” of the “lies” told about her by the Sanders campaign. Clinton was responding to a Greenpeace activist who challenged her about accepting money from fossil fuel companies.

“I do not have that kind of money from people who work for fossil-fuel companies,” she claimed, while Bernie Sanders came out later and pointed out Clinton had “lobbyists working for the oil, gas, and coal industry” raising money from her. The Clinton campaign insists it doesn’t receive money from energy companies themselves or political action committees associated with them.

Clinton’s complaint is rich not just because she is a serial liar and prevaricator, but because it is about a tactic she and her Democratic cohorts (and Donald Trump!) have used for decades—maligning an opposing side based on who might be supporting them with their money rather than actually engaging opposing political positions.

In 2012 Barack Obama openly worried about being “outspent” even though he had broken political spending records in 2008. The failure to launch of candidates like Jeb Bush with tens of millions of dollars backing their campaign has done little to dispel the myth that money spent on speech is some kind of boogeyman in politics. Democrats who insist they are “pro-science” have also ignored the science that suggests campaign donations have little effect on elections.

But Sanders, too, is a hypocrite about money in politics. He has claimed throughout the campaign that he “doesn’t’ have a Super PAC,” yet even the anti-Super PAC New York Times has reported that Sanders, in fact, has had more outside money backing him than any other Democratic candidate, including powerful labor union super PACs.

“Money in politics” is a smokescreen for suppressing speech and a distraction from the how the powers government has granted itself to regulate so much human activity has itself encouraged and sustained cronyism in government. In other words, the rhetoric is a potent tool in protecting cronyism. It allows those in power to limit the ability of their opponents to criticize them while blaming those opponents for corrupting the political system instead of the corrupting influence of centralizing that much power in the first place.

Clinton’s increasing frustration with the Sanders campaign may reflect the troubles ahead in April. Sanders is leading in Wisconsin (voting April 5) and has pulled to within 12 points in New York (voting April 19) where Clinton, the former New York senator, previously led by double digits. Sanders was born in Brooklyn and started the New York leg of his campaign in the south Bronx last night. This is the first time on either the Democratic or Republican side since primaries started being a significant thing in the 70s. On the Republican side, Donald Trump, a life-long New Yorker, has a chance to extend his lead in the delegate count.

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The Best And Worst Performing Assets Of March And Q1

It has been a crazy year so far.

After what was the worst January for the stock market in recent memory, and a volatile but still difficult month for risk in February, the month of March saw a the biggest rebound from its lows in Dow Jones history, and a substantial bounce for the vast majority of risk assets with positive momentum a feature right up until month end.

So what were the best, and worst, performers in the month of March, and the first quarter? Here is the summary from Deutsche Bank:

A notable standout during March was the big surge for Oil which saw WTI rally nearly +14% during the month from the low $30s to closer to $38/bbl, helped by those rising supply cut expectations. That’s helped both EM equities (+13%) and EM bonds (+8%) deliver strong gains during the month, however in local currency terms it’s the Brazilian Bovespa (+17%) which comes out on top with the domestic political situation there clearly playing a large part also. DM equity markets have also seen a marked rebound as a dovish Fed and also the easing measures announced by the ECB having proved supportive. The S&P 500 returned +7% on a total return basis last month while there was a recovery for the Stoxx 600 (+2%) and DAX (+5%).

At the other end of the scale it’s European Banks (-1%) which prop up the bottom of the league in local currency terms, not helped by a poor last day of the month. Gold (-1%) was also down modestly but as you’ll see below the performance YTD is still impressive. Away from that the only other negative total return performers last month came in the rates space with Bunds and Gilts down between 0% and 1% in local currency terms, the relative performance for Gilts seemingly showing that Brexit concerns aren’t having too much of an impact on that asset class. Treasuries, meanwhile, were little changed on the month. Returns for credit markets were generally in the low single digit range with the lower end of the quality spectrum relatively outperforming. It’s worth highlighting the relative weakness in the Dollar last month has resulted in USD-based gains generally being greater for most assets. The Bovespa still tops the list but with a notable +31% gain, while Greek (+17%), Portuguese (+12%) and Russian (+13%) equities all edge higher up the leader board. Gains for European credit markets also look greatly improved with EUR HY (+9%), EUR IG Non-Fin’s (+6%) and EUR Fin Sub (+7%) all rebounding strongly.

With regards to the quarter, despite being flat through the first two months of the year, the massive rally in March for the Bovespa sees it rank second on a local currency (+16%) basis, and top on a USD hedged (+27%) basis. Gold (+16%) tops the former the list still with Silver (+11%) not far behind. In USD terms its Bunds (+9%) and EU sovereign bonds (+8%) which also move steadily higher up the table and into the top seven on our list. US and EUR credit markets rank close to the middle with mid-single digit returns for the quarter. At the bottom end its DM equity markets which generally dominate. European Banks (-20% local and -16% in USD terms) have failed to recover from that huge selloff in January, while the Shanghai Comp (-15% and -15%), FTSE MIB (-15% and -11%), Nikkei (-11% and -5%) and DAX (-7% and -3%) also get honourable mentions. Last month’s gain has seen the S&P 500 (+1%) nudge back into positive territory YTD.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1Y4hqYi Tyler Durden

Virtual Reality Will Upend the Way We Think About Borders and Immigration Policy

The Oculus Rift, the first of a new generation of consumer virtual reality systems, launched earlier this week to mixed reviews, some of which suggest that it’s promising but has a long way to go, others of which say things like “the first time you put it on is the closest thing to real magic you’re likely to experience anytime soon.”

Either way, though, there seems to be a general, though not universal, sense that the Oculus Rift, and the other VR sets coming in the next few months and years, might—maybe!—herald a kind of technological revolution, albeit one that hasn’t arrived quite yet.

Right now, the emphasis in VR development, especially for the rift, seems to be on video games, and I wouldn’t be surprised if, over the next decade or so, we’ll see video games transition from flat-screen PC and TV experiences to virtual experiences. Video games have increasingly prioritized immersion and visual spectacle over the years (which, of course, sparked a counter-trend of clever smaller-scale games), and it’s hard to imagine a better format for the delivery of those sorts of experiences than virtual reality systems that literally block out the sights and sounds of the world around you.

Games are how a lot of us will interact with VR at first, but I think in the longer run, if it’s successful, it’s going to do a lot more than just make future editions of Fallout more engaging. It’s going to change work and human interaction and social organization in all sorts of ways. For example, it has the potential to make a lot of business travel unnecessary: Virtual conferencing rooms could conceivably simulate in-person meetings well enough to eliminate a lot meetings, at least those that don’t require hands-on work.

The ability to easily work with people anywhere in the world as if they are in the same room as you will, in turn, challenge a lot of the current thinking about immigration and foreign workers. Over at Slate, Reihan Salam works through some of the potential implications of this, focusing on Microsoft’s idea for “holoportation” technology—which allows a virtual image of a person in another location to be projected on top of your current physical environment—using the company’s forthcoming augmented-reality device, the Hololens. Here’s a snippet from Salam’s piece:

VR technology isn’t just going to shape the lives of the global jetset. In the years to come, it may well transform our immigration debate. Advocates of large-scale immigration argue that U.S. workers and consumers benefit from it in a number of ways, and they’re right. Less-skilled migrant workers often fill jobs that native-born workers would only take on for relatively high wages, thus making a wide array of services more available to working- and middle-class consumers. Skilled immigrant workers, meanwhile, can collaborate with skilled native workers in ways that bring substantial benefits to both.

You can see this changing the immigration policy debate in any number of ways: On the one hand, it could make physical borders seem less relevant than ever. On the other hand, it might provide fuel to restrictionists who argue that physical borders and border controls should be strengthened even as virtual borders disappear. At the same time, it’s likely to complicate workplace rules and regulations in all sorts of ways, as previously unknown jurisdictional issues arise.

I don’t want to focus too much on this particular branded technology. Microsoft’s “holoportation” idea might not work out, or might prove cumbersome and not very useful. All of this technology is still in early stages, of course, and it’s always difficult to figure out what widespread adoption will actually look like until it happens. Maybe a hundred years from now, knowledge work will still consist primarily of sitting in front of flat screens, tapping on keyboards and guiding pointers with mice, while scrolling through text on handheld touchscreens.

But I doubt it. and if VR does take off, then it’s going to raise these sorts of possibilities and questions about work and borders and immigration and what it means to be a nation, defined in physical, geographic terms, when digital technology has all but erased the concept of distance.

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Ronald Bailey Reviews Half Life: Our Planet’s Fight for Life by Edward O. Wilson: New at Reason

Biodiversity In his new book, Half Earth, the world’s greatest living naturalist, Edward O. Wilson, argues that humanity needs to set aside half of the our planet’s lands and oceans as biosphere reserves in order to prevent a massive extinction of other species in this century. The good news is that he believes that economic, technological, and demographic trends point to a brighter future both for humanity and for the rest of nature. He sometimes comes off as practically a visionary transhumanist, predicting vast improvements by means of nanotechnology, biotechnology, and robotics. Wilson even thinks that scientists will succeed at whole brain emulation—that is, the installation of human minds on digital devices—by the end of this century. This progress will be achieved by means of free markets and will enable humanity to increasingy withdraw from the natural world.

View this article.

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Auto Sales Disappoint Despite Surging Incentives, “Worrisome Trends Are Taking Hold”

Just as we predicted, it seems – despite the "everything is awesome" jobs data – that auto sales exuberance has hit the wall of credit saturation. Despite a surge in incentives in Q1, GM US auto sales rose just 0.6% (drastically lower than 6.0% rise expectations) and Ford rose 7.8% (missing expectations of a 9.4% surge). As J.D.Power notes "there are worrisome trends below the surface" of auto sales and with inventories at levels only seen once in the last 24 years (and tumbling used car prices), the automakers have a major problem if this is anything but 'transitory'.

It wasn't just GM and Ford though:

*FIAT CHRYSLER MARCH U.S. AUTO SALES RISE 8.1%, EST. UP 14%
*FIAT CHRYSLER HALTED IN MILAN, LIMIT DOWN AFTER FALLING 4.9%
*HONDA MARCH U.S. AUTO SALES UP 9.4%, EST. UP 16%
*VOLKSWAGEN OF AMERICA MARCH AUTO SALES DOWN 10.4%
*TOYOTA MARCH U.S. AUTO SALES DOWN 2.7%, EST. UP 5.6%

U.S. light-vehicle deliveries, aided by low gasoline prices, rising discounts and favorable financing terms, have climbed 3.4 percent this year through February after rising 5.7 percent to a record 17.47 million in 2015. But on a selling-day-adjusted basis, new-vehicle retail sales in March are expected to fall 2 percent from a year ago, according to a joint sales forecast by J.D. Power and LMC Automotive. It would be the first time there has been a year-over-year decline in sales on an adjusted basis since August 2010, Power and LMC say.

What is most troubling however is, as JD Power notes, the worrisome trends below the surface…

Following an exceptional performance in 2015 with strong sales and record average price per vehicle sold, the U.S. automobile market must adopt a more disciplined approach to maintain long term health for the industry, according to a briefing given by J.D. Power here today at the 2016 J.D. Power Automotive Summit.

J.D. Power warns that incentive spending on new vehicles has risen rapidly in the past year and is trending toward recession-era levels for the industry as a whole and has already exceeded recession-era levels on cars.

The analysis, presented as part of the J.D. Power Automotive Summit, which kicks off the National Automobile Dealers Association Convention & Expo, finds that while overall industry retail sales are expected to grow by 300,000 to 14.5 million units in 2016, the growth is being delivered through actions that pose meaningful risks to the long-term health of the industry. Those actions include elevated incentive spending, increased use of extended loan terms, rising loan-to-value ratios and record levels of leasing.

"Overall, auto sales figures continue to post strong results, but when you peel back just one layer beneath the surface, some worrisome trends are taking hold," said Thomas King, vice president of Power Information Network at J.D. Power. "Chief among the trends is the fact that first quarter sales incentives averaged 9.6% of MSRP, a 70 basis-point increase from last year and are trending toward levels observed at the height of the recession.

"The increased spending, which is due primarily to manufacturers trying to offset a shift in demand from cars to trucks and SUVs, has the potential to reduce future resale value. Significant declines in the value of used cars would disrupt consumers' ability to buy new vehicles (due to lower trade-in values), while vehicle manufacturers and lenders would have to deal with exposure on their lease portfolios (if off-lease vehicles fail to achieve their expected resale value)."

And this sales weakness is occurring amid a mal-investment-driven excess inventory-to-sales at levels only seen once before in 24 years…

And worse still, used car prices starting to fade rapidly (biggest Feb drop since 2008)…

Falling used car prices means pressure on new car prices as well, which would be a shock to America's booming auto market.

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US Rig Count Tumbles To Fresh Record 41-Year Lows

With US crude production starting to drop, the lagged plunge in oil rig counts appears to be having some effect. Baker Hughes reports that the number of US oil rigs dropped 10 to 362 (14th weekly drop of last 15), the lowest since Nov 2009. The total rig count tumbled 14 to 450, fresh record 41-year lows. Crude was leaking lower into the data and rose modestly after.

BHI: Baker Hughes reports U.S. rig count down 14 to 450 rigs
*U.S. OIL RIG COUNT FALLS 10 TO 362, BAKER HUGHES SAYS