Russian Fleet Gives Ukrainian Crimea Forces Ultimatum To Surrender Or “Face Storm”, Ukraine Defense Minister Quoted

Just out from Reuters:

  • INTERFAX UKRAINIAN DEFENCE MINISTRY AS SAYING  RUSSIAN FLEET HAS GIVEN UKRAINIAN FORCES IN CRIMEA UNTIL 0300  GMT TOSURRENDER OR FACE STORM

It appears Putin is still unaware of the “costs” he is facing.

Meanwhile:

Interpreter notes that Ukraine’s first president, Leonid Kravchuk, who served between 1991 and 1994, wrote in the Russian publication Snob.ru today that this crisis could spark World War III:

“I call on the Russian authorities to stop. Between our peoples should not be war. Does Russia not understand that this is the beginning of World War III?” he warned.

 

He vowed to defend the land of his forefathers despite his age.

 

“My great-grandfather and grandfather fought in World War I, along with Russia. I am 80 years old, but I’ll take a gun and I will defend their land. Every citizen will defend their territory as their home.

 

“We knelt and Russia sat us down. Czechoslovakia, Poland, Afghanistan, Hungary. Now Ukraine is on the line?” he continued.

If the Russian troops try to take these bases, and the soldiers inside resist, is it possible that Kravchuk’s warning could come true?


    



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GM Channel Stuffing Rises To All Time High

Moments ago GM reported that February total sales in February dropped 1% Y/Y to 222,2014, beating expectations of a 7.7% drop (if the same beat was not matched by GM’s key competitor Ford, whose February sales dropped 6.1%, below the 5.3% expected, and Volkswagen whose US sales tumbled 13.8%). The bounce was largely thanks to Buick sales which posted an 18.8% increase in February. However, the actual sales were largely irrelevant. What was notable is the following number: 805,769. This is the number of units in dealer inventory at month end. This was an increase from the 780,140 in January and is the largest ever channel stuffing print yet recorded by the post-bankruptcy GM in history.

Good luck liquidating all that pent up inventory without major incentives and margin crushing price reductions for the everyone in the distribution chain.

Source: GM


    



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Russia Defends Its “Absolutely Lawful” Invasion Of Crimea

Having earlier blasted John Kerry for his “lack of analysis” of the Ukraine situation and noted that China “understands” the Russian perspective, the Russian foreign ministry has issued a further statement defending its actions in Crimea: “…through the fault of the Bandera-type groups and other ultra-nationalistic forces, the measures we are taking are adequate and absolutely lawful.”

 

Via Interfax,

The measures Russia is taking to defend the population of the Crimea are adequate and lawful, the Russian Foreign Ministry said.

 

It said a legitimate government should be formed in Ukraine.

 

“We want the situation in Ukraine to get back to normal as soon as possible on the basis of the February 21 agreement, and a legitimate national unity government to be formed that would take the interests of all political forces and regions into account,” it said in a statement on Monday.

 

“In the current extraordinary situation, which has taken shape through no fault of our own, when the lives and security of residents of the Crimea and the southeastern regions have come under threat through the fault of the Bandera-type groups and other ultra-nationalistic forces, the measures we are taking are adequate and absolutely lawful,” the Foreign Ministry said.


    



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Unicredit “Temporarily” Limits ATM Withdrawals In Ukraine

It appears the bank runs – or desparate dash for cash – in Ukraine have escalated. We noted that Russian banks had already limited access but now Unicredit has issued a statement “temporarily limiting operations on cash withdrawal in ATMs, in order to provide all the clients with an access to cash money.” The decision, they stress, is a temporary one (like Cyprus capital controls?) and will be cancelled with the “normalization of the situation.”

 

Via Unicredit,

UniCredit Bank has temporarily limited operations on cash withdrawal in ATMs, in order to provide all the clients with an access to cash money. According to the decision of the Management Board, the sum for cash withdrawal for one card is limited at the level of UAH 1500 per 24 hours.

We are stressing that these measures are taken exclusively to provide all the bank’s clients with ATM service. For the same purposes, cash withdrawals at UniCredit Bank’s ATMs using cards of other banks is limited 500 UAH per day.

This decision – is a temporary one and it will be cancelled in the nearest time with the normalization of situation. Besides, it does not involve operations in the trade networks.

We bring our apologies for temporary inconveniences and hope for understanding


    



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Blame It On The Weather? Personal Spending On Services Highest Ever In January

Moments ago the BEA released the January personal income and spending data, which surprised to the upside on both sides: Personal Income rose 0.3% in January, on expectations of a 0.2% increase, while spending roared up by 0.4% well above the 0.1% expected. Great news right? Well, not exactly.

First the December spending data was revised from 0.4% to 0.1%, just as expected, following the big miss in last week’s Q4 GDP revision. Second, of the $43.9 bilion increase in Peronal Income, some $29.8 billion, or over two thirds, was thanks to personal current transfer receipts, i.e., the government. But it was the personal spending breakdown that was truly surprising. One would think that based on a “bullish” take of the data, consumers opened up their wallets and purchased durable goods, such as TVs, gizmos, and what not, boost retailers top and bottom lines? Alas, that is not the case. The chart below shows the monthly increase in spending on durable and non-durable goods. Both declined.

 

So what happened in January to account for this spending spree? The chart below of spending on Services should explain it. Not the outlier spending in January, when “harsh weather” was said to have ground spending to a halt.

 

And there you have it: all services, in fact, in January US consumers spent a record amount of $72 billion on services. So, the Service Recovery, if not so much Goods. It appears the weather was so harsh and horrible it led to… the largest spending on services in history! Of course, nobody will mention this as it is a favorable benefit from the weather: remember the propaganda only identifies the negative data and scapegoats it with snow in the winter.

As for where US consumer got the funding, simple: personal savings declined once again, down to $540.1 billion from $544.5 billion, the fourth consecutive monthly drop, even if the savings rate of 4.3%, the lowest since March 2013, was more or less unchanged from the prior month.


    



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Stocks Tumble, Supply Concerns See Food, Energy and Precious Metals Rise

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,344.25, EUR 975.58 and GBP 803.50 per ounce.                            

Friday’s AM fix was USD 1,327.75, EUR 961.65 and GBP 793.21 per ounce.          


Gold fell $5.90 or 0.44% Friday to $1,324.60/oz. Silver dropped $0.11 or 0.52% at $21.17/oz. Gold was up 0.8% and silver finished down 2.93% last week.


Cross Currency Rates – (Bloomberg)

Gold gained more than 1.4% today on escalating geopolitical tensions. Ukraine mobilized for war after Russia bloodlessly seized Crimea, in what some are seeing as the most serious geopolitical crisis since the end of the Cold War.

The dollar was mixed and saw losses against the yen and Australian dollar but gains against the euro and the pound both of which came under pressure.

Stocks in Europe and Asia tumbled with U.S. equity-index futures and emerging currencies while gold, silver and Treasuries gained. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures fell the most in a month and the FTSE, CAC and DAX were all down by between 1.2% and 2.3%.

The G7 industrialized nations condemned Russia’s intrusion into Ukraine and cancelled preparations for the G8 summit, that includes Russia, scheduled for Sochi in June, the White House said.

Gold rose to an intraday high around $1,345 an ounce. The United States is threatening to isolate Russia economically in what is the biggest confrontation between Russia and the West since the Cold War.

Premiums for gold bars in Singapore were unchanged from last week at 80 cents an ounce over the spot London prices.

Russia is the world’s largest energy exporter and economic and military friction between the superpowers could lead to a surge in key commodity prices. Crude oil hit multi-month highs.  Brent crude rose as much as 2% to $111.23 and NYMEX by 1.2% to $104.32.

U.K. natural gas jumped the most in more than 16 months and was 2.3% higher to $4.72 on supply concerns. Wheat and corn surged 4.3% and 3.3% respectively, also on supply concerns.

Russia’s central bank unexpectedly boosted its key interest rate 150 basis points as shares in Moscow plunged the most in five years. Russia’s Micex index plummeted over 8% and the ruble slipped to a record low versus the dollar.


Industrial metals retreated after Chinese manufacturing gauges for February signaled slower growth as officials prepare to meet this week on policy targets. A purchasing managers’ index of euro zone factory output is due today before U.S. reports on consumer spending and factory activity.

 

The negative data out of China and the heightened geopolitical risk in the Crimea is leading to a renewed bout of risk aversion which is supporting gold. This risk does not look like it will abate in the short or medium term. Indeed, should relations between Russia and Western nations deteriorate further, it will have consequences for already vulnerable economies and lead to increased safe haven demand.   

Find out why Singapore is now one of the safest places in the world to store gold in our latest gold guide –
The Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Singapore


    



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Former central banker: “[Bankers] are making it up as they go along.”

March 3, 2014
London, England

[Editors note: Tim Price, Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management and frequent Sovereign Man contributor is filling in for Simon today.]

A few weeks ago, William White (former economist at the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada, and Bank of International Settlements) made a frank admission.

And while we search for assets whose prices are less obviously distorted by malign government intervention, it’s refreshing to hear a mea culpa from a member of the economics “profession”.

White said:

“The analytical underpinnings of what we [mainstream economists] do are actually pretty shaky. A reflection of that fact, is that virtually every aspect you can think of with respect to monetary policy, about best practice, has changed and changed repetitively over the course of the last 50 years. So, this stuff ain’t science.

“Think about what’s happened recently. One, its completely unprecedented. People are making it up as they go along. This is hardly science – building on the pillars of the past.

“Secondly, what they’ve been making up as they go along actually differs across central banks [The Bundesbank, for example, is fighting the threat of high inflation, whereas the Fed is more concerned about the prospect of deflation]. They can’t even agree amongst themselves about what’s the best way to do things.

“I’m becoming more and more convinced that all of the models we use are basically useless.

“It’s surprising that we’ve had this huge crisis that the mainstream didn’t predict. It’s gone on for years, which the mainstream absolutely didn’t predict. I would have thought this was a basis for a fundamental rethink about what we used to think we believed. But that hasn’t happened.

“The policies that we’ve followed – on the monetary side at least – since 2007 are just more of the same demand-stimulating policies that we’ve been following, I think, erroneously, for the last 30 years.

“We’ve got the potential to do so much harm by not getting the creation of fiat credit and money right. We’ve got the capacity to do so much harm that we should be focusing much more on making sure that doesn’t happen.”

[End quote]

Doctors at least have the Hippocratic Oath: first, do no harm. If only economists and central bankers had a similar ethic.

But they don’t. So they continue ‘making it up as they go along’, as Mr. White suggests, applying failed ideas with impunity and continued authority to an unquestioning public.

Warren Buffett famously compared financial markets to the card table, observing that if you’ve been playing poker for half an hour and you still don’t know who the patsy is, then you’re the patsy. It seems we are all patsies now.

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Russia Warns Kerry’s “Threats Are Unacceptable” As Europe Weighs Sanctions

Russia has lashed out following comments from US Secretary of State John Kerry:

  • *RUSSIA SAYS KERRY THREATS ARE `UNACCEPTABLE’
  • *RUSSIA SAYS KERRY ISN’T ANALYSING SITUATION IN UKRAINE
  • *KERRY IS USING COLD WAR SLOGANS, RUSSIA FOREIGN MINISTRY SAYS

In comments on the Russian foreign ministry website, Lavrov added:

  • *RUSSIAN MEASURES IN UKRAINE ARE `REASONABLE,’ `LEGAL’: FOR.MIN.
  • *U.S., ALLIES IGNORED VIOLENCE, RUSSOPHOBIA IN UKRAINE PROTESTS
  • *G-8 HALT OF PREPARATIONS FOR SUMMIT IS UNCONSTRUCTIVE: RUSSIA

 

In addition, EU ministers debate freezing the assets of Ukrainians responsible for corruption and “targeted measures” against Russia if no change of course is undertaken.

  • *EU Ministers Debate Freezing Assets of Ukrainians Responsible for Corruption – Draft Text
  • *EU Debates Calling Russian Crimea Actions “Invasion” – Draft Text
  • *EU Commends Ukraine’s Response to Russia Actions – Draft
  • *EU Will Suspend Visa Negotiations with Russia – Draft Text
  • *EU Debating Placing Arms Embargo on Russia If No Change of Course
  • *EU Could Prepare Future “Targeted Measures” vs Russia If No Change in Course – Draft

Perhaps most notable though this morning was the following headline:

  • *RUSSIA DEP FORMIN KARASIN SPOKE ON UKRAINE W/ CHINA COUNTERPART
  • *RUSSIA: CHINA EXPRESSED UNDERSTANDING OF ITS UKRAINE ANALYSIS
  • *RUSSIA, CHINA DISCUSSED UKRAINE’S INTERNAL POLITICAL CRISIS

In other words, China was well aware of the plan and appears comfortable taking sides.


    



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Russian Stocks Crash As Central Bank Scrambles, Hikes Rates Most Since 1998 Default

Following a 150bps rate hike by the central bank – the largest since the 1998 default –desperate to halt capital outflows and a collapsing currency, Russian stocks have crashed 11% led by some of the country’s largest banks. USDRUB rose to just shy of 37 – the weakest RUB rate on record – but rallied back a little on the rate hike but the MICEX stock index tumbled 11% to almost 2-year lows with Sberbank (Russia’s largest bank) down 17% and VTB (2nd largest bank) down 20%. Between the threat of economic sanctions from the West and simple risk-aversion-based capital flight, as one analyst noted, “uncertainty risks a further escalation in domestic capital outflow.” 

 

MICEX is down 11% today alone…

 

Ruble at record lows against the USD…

 

It was the biggest increase in a Russian benchmark rate since June 1998, less than two months before Russia defaulted on domestic sovereign bonds and devalued the currency. The refinancing rate used to be the central bank’s main reference.

 

The Banks have been battered…

 

  • Sberbank, Russia’s biggest bank, drops 17%, loses most since 2008
  • VTB, Russia’s second-bigest lender, tumbles 20%
  • Bank St. Petersburg falls 16%
  • Bank Vozrozhdenie declines 10%
  • Nomos Bank slides 12%

 

European and U.S. leaders have threatened sanctions against Russia, creating risks that economic growth will stall, demand for the country’s assets will dry up and a selloff in the currency will deepen. “There is a risk of international backlash against Russia at a time when the economy faces an increasing need for foreign capital inflows… This uncertainty risks a further escalation in domestic capital outflow.”


    



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