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Today’s AM fix was USD 1,231.75, EUR 911.60 and GBP 760.57 per ounce.
Friday’s AM fix was USD 1,241.75, EUR 918.59 and GBP 766.75 per ounce

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Gold remained unchanged Friday, closing at $1,243.20/oz. Silver slipped $0.12 or 0.6% closing at $19.87/oz. Platinum fell $5.50 or 0.4% to $1,437.74/oz, while palladium dropped $6.50 or 0.9% to $729.72/oz. Gold and silver both fell on the week at 3.46% and 4.24% respectively.

Gold in U.S. Dollars, 1 Day – (Bloomberg)

Gold initially ticked slightly higher in Asia overnight after the U.S., China, Russia, the UK, France and Germany reached an agreement with Iran yesterday to limit Iran’s nuclear programme. The agreement allows for the easing of sanctions on trading gold with Iran. This has prevented Iran from diversifying into gold in recent months.

Two hours into trading and gold was slightly higher at $1,244.50/oz. However, gold prices then came under pressure, with more concentrated, significant sell orders commencing at exactly 0600 GMT. Sharp, concentrated selling took place which pushed gold prices from $1,238/oz to $1,225 or $13 in less than two minutes. Interestingly, a volume buyer then stepped in and gold then bounced higher to $1,233/oz.

The detente with Iran is not as bearish for gold as is thought. While the threat of any imminent conflict with Iran has eased in the short term, the move allows Iran to begin accumulating gold again – another source of significant sovereign demand.

There is also still risks of a military confrontation in the region. Israel and Saudi Arabia were extremely opposed to the deal and significant tensions remain in the powder keg that is the Middle East.

On Friday, gold managed to close with a slight gain, but that didn’t stop prices from suffering their biggest weekly loss in 10 weeks – down 3.4%. Gold’s falls came amid peculiar trading on the COMEX last week which saw COMEX suspend trading twice on Wednesday. The incessant speculative chatter over possible, but unlikely, tapering of the Federal Reserve’s debt monetisation programme continues.

DEMAND IN CHINA remains robust as seen in Shanghai gold premiums. Closing wholesale premiums continue to strengthen, gold closed at a $33 premium at $1,265.69 (see table below) today, up from a $11.25 premium at $1,265.69/oz on Friday.

Gold Prices / Fixes / Rates / Vols – (Bloomberg)

The Shanghai Gold Exchange saw ‘recorded deliveries’ of 17.950 tonnes bringing November totals to 216.018 tonnes. Gold deliveries on the SGE are headed for another extremely large delivery month once settled as Chinese jewellers and bullion dealers stock up for Chinese New Year.

LATEST CFTC DATA from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed hedge funds got increasingly bearish on gold, with speculators scaling back exposure after the most aggressive pullback in positioning since March 2012 the week prior. Net longs on gold dropped to the lowest level in four months.

COMEX warehouse activity was interesting Friday as physical silver bullion saw very significant movement in COMEX warehouses. 2,554,353 troy ounces were received and 18,335 troy ounces shipped out.  HSBC USA was the large recipient of 1.954 million ounces of silver.

JOHN PAULSON, hedge fund billionaire recently told his clients that he won’t invest any more of his own money in his gold fund, owing to an uncertainty over when inflation will accelerate. Paulson’s PFR Gold Fund is reportedly down 63% year-to-date.

It is important to note that Paulson is not selling his gold and is maintaining his very large position in gold which is a vote of confidence by one of the largest investors in the world.

Gold in U.S. Dollars, 5 Days – (Bloomberg)

GOLDCORE’S MARK O’BYRNE was interviewed by the SGT Report over the weekend and the video has just been released and can be viewed here .

“We have these huge fundamental factors that should be contributing to higher gold (and silver) prices, and that’s why many people are scratching their heads and asking ‘why isn’t this happening?’”

“We’re down about 25% year to date despite these strong fundamentals.”

Mark explains how for 53 years the Chinese people were banned from owning gold. But that all changed in 2003, and now the enormous demand by 1.3 billion Chinese over the last ten years is causing a paradigm shift, as gold and silver moves from the West to the East.

He says how silver remains very undervalued and will likely reach its inflation adjusted high of $140/oz in the coming years.

Silver remains a tiny market with all above ground refined silver in the world at roughly 1 billion ounces for a total valuation of less than $20 billion at today’s prices.

Therefore, all the silver in the world is worth less than the total market capitalisation of one tech darling, Twitter. It is worth less than the  total market capitalisation of Tesla.

All the investment grade silver in the world, is worth roughly what the Federal Reserve prints in one week – $19.6 billion. Incredibly, at $85 billion per month, the Federal Reserve is printing money and buying its own debt to the tune of $19.6 billion a week – “mind boggling”.

As for the race to debase and the manipulation of precious metal prices, Mark says, “They can mess around with the price all they want, ultimately the price of everything in the long term will be dictated by supply and demand, particularly for a physical commodity like gold.”

VIDEO: “China’s Insatiable Demand For GOLD Causing PARADIGM SHIFT”

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via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/ISpuQigfz-U/story01.htm GoldCore

Submitted by John Rubino via Dollar Collapse blog,

Most people – certainly most governments and economists – define inflation as a general rise in prices. But this is wrong. Inflation is an increase in the money supply, of which a rising general price level is just one possible result – and not the most common one.

More often, excessive money creation shows up as asset bubbles, where the new money, instead of flowing equally to all the products that are for sale at a given time, flow disproportionately into the ‘hottest’ asset classes. Readers who were paying attention in the 1990s might recall that the consumer price index was well-behaved while huge amounts of money flowed into financial assets, producing the dot-com bubble.

The same thing happened in the 2000s, when excess currency flowed into housing and equities. In each case, mainstream economists and government officials pointed to modest consumer price inflation as a sign that things were fine. And in each case they were simply looking in the wrong place and completely missing the destabilizing effects of an inflating money supply.

Now we’re at it again, with economists, legislators and central bankers using low consumer price inflation as a rationale for even easier money, while ignoring epic bubbles in sovereign bonds, equities, high-end real estate and collectibles around the world. These bubbles are the true evidence of inflation, and since they’re growing progressively larger, it’s accurate to say that inflation is high and accelerating. Let’s take some exotic examples, first from the art world:

Art prices painting a disturbing picture of inflation

The Francis Bacon painting “Three Studies of Lucian Freud” was sold for a whopping $142.4 million as part of a $691.6 million Christie’s sale on Tuesday night, making it the most expensive work of art ever sold at auction.

 

Some argue that the sale is giving us a message about inflation that investors aren’t getting from the action in gold, the Dollar Index, or the government’s official consumer price index data.

 

“Asset inflation took another leg higher last night,” wrote Peter Boockvar in a Wednesday morning note. “Thank you Federal Reserve, and thank you Bureau of Labor Statistics for not including art in the consumer price index.”

And this from…would you call it the jewelry world?:

Most expensive diamond ever sold goes for $83.2M

Sotheby’s just dropped the hammer on the most expensive diamond ever sold. The stone, a 59.6-carat flawless pink diamond called the “Pink Star,” was auctioned for $83.2 million, according to Sotheby’s. That made it the most expensive jewel or diamond ever sold at auction.

The previous record for a diamond sold at auction was $46 million, for a 24.68-carat pink diamond bought by Laurence Graff in 2010. The auction follows yesterday’s Christie’s sale of the largest fancy-vivid orange diamond known to exist, a 14.82-carat stone that sold for $36 million—the highest price-per-carat ever paid at auction.

Now, if the super-rich are going to covert their paper currency into tangible things – at a time when governments around the world are contemplating wealth taxes – they need safe, confidential storage. And the market is responding:

Über-warehouses for the ultra-rich

PASSENGERS at Findel airport in Luxembourg may have noticed a cluster of cranes a few hundred yards from the runway. The structure being erected looks fairly unremarkable (though it will eventually be topped with striking hexagonal skylights). Along its side is a line of loading bays, suggesting it could be intended as a spillover site for the brimming cargo terminal nearby. This new addition to one of Europe’s busiest air-freight hubs will not hold any old goods, however. It will soon be home to billions of dollars’ worth of fine art and other treasures, much of which will have been whisked straight from collectors’ private jets along a dedicated road linking the runway to the warehouse.

The world’s rich are increasingly investing in expensive stuff, and “freeports” such as Luxembourg’s are becoming their repositories of choice. Their attractions are similar to those offered by offshore financial centres: security and confidentiality, not much scrutiny, the ability for owners to hide behind nominees, and an array of tax advantages. This special treatment is possible because goods in freeports are technically in transit, even if in reality the ports are used more and more as permanent homes for accumulated wealth. If anyone knows how to game the rules, it is the super-rich and their advisers.

Because of the confidentiality, the value of goods stashed in freeports is unknowable. It is thought to be in the hundreds of billions of dollars, and rising. Though much of what lies within is perfectly legitimate, the protection offered from prying eyes ensures that they appeal to kleptocrats and tax-dodgers as well as plutocrats. Freeports have been among the beneficiaries as undeclared money has fled offshore bank accounts as a result of tax-evasion crackdowns in America and Europe.

Parallel fiscal universe

Freeports are something of a fiscal no-man’s-land. The “free” refers to the suspension of customs duties and taxes. This benefit may have been originally intended as temporary, while goods were in transit, but for much of the stored wealth it is, in effect, permanent, as there is no time limit: a painting can be flown in from another country and stored for decades without attracting a levy. Better still, sales of goods in freeports generally incur no value-added or capital-gains taxes. These are (technically) payable in the destination country when an item leaves this parallel fiscal universe, but by then it may have changed hands several times.

Some thoughts
Clearly, inflation is raging. But because so much of society’s wealth is flowing to the top 1% — who after all can only drive one car at a time and tend to eat no more than the rest of us – inflation isn’t showing up in food, suburban houses or other mass-market products. Instead, trillions of disposable dollars are pouring into real assets that are then hoarded in mansions and high-end storage facilities. This is a truly startling asset grab when you think about it.

The one unique thing about this episode is that past migrations of capital from fi
nancial to tangible assets have included precious metals, which tend to be in demand when paper currencies are being mismanaged. That gold and silver aren’t participating is the strongest proof yet that they’re being manipulated to hide the impact of rising debt and excessive currency creation. After all, if you’re going to spend $100 million on art, your financial adviser will almost certainly tell you to diversify into farmland, oil wells and gold bars.

That this hasn’t happened doesn’t mean it won’t. Picture a chart tracking the tangible asset classes of the super-rich: art, jewelry, high-end London and Manhattan apartments, beachfront property, gold bullion, etc., the things that are exist in limited supply and continue to exist no matter what the S&P 500 or 10-year Treasuries are doing. Virtually all the lines on that chart would would be looking parabolic right about now – except precious metals. A billionaire, trying to figure out where to move his next hundred mil would look at this chart and see one outlier, one thing that hasn’t yet gone through the roof, and make the obvious choice. That day is coming.

But looked at another way – in terms of the amount of paper currency being used to buy them – you could say that gold and silver are by far the most popular tangible assets in the world. China, India, and Russia between them have snapped up about 4,000 tons of gold this year, worth about $153 billion at the current price. That’s a lot more than was spent on art. It’s just that these purchases, massive though they are, aren’t moving the price.

But they are moving something: the gold reserves of the western central banks that are sending their gold eastward. They’re moving those down, at an unsustainable rate. So Western central banks face a tough choice: keep sending their gold to Asia until it’s gone, or let the super-rich bid it into the stratosphere in line with art and diamonds. Sooner or later, they’ll have to choose door number two.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/ayzQS6tHCbs/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Yet another case of rodents departing a sinking ship as the pent up discrepancy between reality and future expectations means imminent scapegoating of executives for poor performance:

• WAL-MART STORES NAMES DOUG MCMILLON CEO, SUCCEEDING MIKE DUKE 
• BLACKBERRY SAYS ROGER MARTIN RESIGNS FROM BOARD
• BLACKBERRY SAYS COO, MARKETING CHIEF TO LEAVE; REPLACES CFO

You decide… The press releases are mind-blowingly full of fluff.

 

BlackBerry Announces Management and Board Changes

BlackBerry, a world leader in mobile communications, today announced that as part of the on-going reorganization of BlackBerry, Kristian Tear, the Company’s Chief Operating Officer, and Frank Boulben, the Company’s Chief Marketing Officer, will leave the Company. BlackBerry also announced that James Yersh will replace Brian Bidulka as its Chief Financial Officer. Yersh, who has worked at BlackBerry since 2008, previously served as Senior Vice President, Controller and as the Company’s head of Compliance. Bidulka will stay  on as a special advisor to the CEO for the remainder of the fiscal year to assist with the transition.
 
“I thank Kristian and Frank for their efforts on behalf of BlackBerry. I look forward to working more directly with the talented teams of engineers, and the sales and marketing teams around the world to facilitate the BlackBerry turn-around and to drive innovation,” said John Chen, Executive Chair and CEO of BlackBerry. “I also thank Brian for his eight years of dedicated service to BlackBerry. I look forward to working with James and his Finance team as we move forward, execute on our plans and deliver long-term value for our shareholders.”
 
Chen added, “BlackBerry has a strong cash position and continues, by a significant margin, to be the top provider of trusted and secure mobile device management solutions to enterprise customers around the world. Building on this core strength, and in conjunction with these management changes, I will continue to align my senior management team and organizational structure, and refine the Company’s strategy to ensure we deliver the best devices, mobile security and device management through BES 10, provide multi-platform messaging solutions with BBM, and expand adoption of QNX embedded systems.”
 
BlackBerry also announced today that Roger Martin, a Board member since 2007, has resigned. “Our Board has benefitted from Roger’s expertise and insights over the past six years and we wish him the best,” said Barbara Stymiest, Board Member and Former Chair of the Board.
 
James Yersh has more than 15 years of experience in the technology and telecommunications industries. Yersh previously served as the Senior Vice President, Controller and head of Compliance for BlackBerry. Prior to joining BlackBerry in 2008, he held various senior positions at Cognos Incorporated and Deloitte.

 

 

Doug McMillon Elected New Chief Executive Officer of Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.

Mike Duke retires as CEO after delivering strong financial performance and developing building blocks that position the company for continued success

Wal-Mart Stores today announced that its board of directors elected company veteran Doug McMillon, 47, to succeed Mike Duke, 63, as president and chief executive officer, effective February 1, 2014. McMillon was also elected to the company’s board of directors, effective immediately.

“This leadership change comes at a time of strength and growth at Walmart,” said Rob Walton, chairman of Walmart’s board of directors. “The company has the right strategy to serve the changing customer around the world, and Doug has been actively involved in this process. The company has a strong management team to execute that strategy.”

Walton continued, “Doug is uniquely positioned to lead our growing global company and to serve the changing customer, while remaining true to our culture and values. He has broad experience – with successful senior leadership roles in all of Walmart’s business segments – and a deep understanding of the economic, social and technological trends shaping our world. A merchant at heart, Doug has both a long history with our company and a keen sense of where our customers globally are heading next. He has also shown strong leadership on environmental sustainability and a commitment to using Walmart’s size and scale to make a difference in the lives of people, wherever they might be.”

“The opportunity to lead Walmart is a great privilege,” McMillon said. “Our company has a rich history of delivering value to customers across the globe and, as their needs grow and change, we will be there to serve them. Our management team is talented and experienced, and our strategy gives me confidence that our future is bright. By keeping our promise to customers, we will drive shareholder value, create opportunity for our associates and grow our business.”   

“Mike put in place the building blocks for the next generation Walmart and today the company is stronger, more global and more unified across all our stores, mobile and online,” said Walton.  “He also reinvigorated the productivity loop and delivered strong financial performance. During his tenure the company made critical investments in talent and technology to expand Walmart to even more customers globally and stepped up its progress on social and environmental issues.  Mike also has a strong commitment to diversity, and has been especially engaged in advancing women throughout organization. He set a tone at the top to never be satisfied, to always accelerate and do better, while remaining true to the culture that has been core to the company’s success.”

“This is a great company and it has been an honor to help advance Sam Walton’s vision of giving people around the world a better life,” said Duke. “Our associates make it all possible and I’ve learned so much from them. No matter where I traveled, our associates continued to inspire me with their commitment to living our values, serving our customers and taking care of each other.“

Duke will continue serving as chairman of the executive committee of the board and, in the tradition of his predecessors, stay on as an advisor to McMillon for one year. The company plans to make an announcement on McMillon’s successor as CEO of Walmart International by the end of the fiscal year.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/qH-7cyejhCs/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Shortly after 1amET this morning, someone with no apparent fiduciary duty to their client's for best execution or any apparent trade allocation expertise decided it was time to dump 1500 contracts into an entirely illiquid gold futures market. The 150,000 ounce notional sell order ($184.5 million), captured graphically by Nanex, sent the price down $10 instaneously, tripped the exchange's circuit breakers and halted the market's trading for 20 seconds (once again). This is now the 4th market halt in the past 3 months (and this time on no news whatsoever), as the manipulative monkey-hammerings from who knows whom (BIS?) is becoming increasingly obvious.

 

Via Nanex,

This sort of thing is happening far too often: see also the drops on April 12, 2013,  September 12, 2013, October 11, 2013 and November 20, 2013 which also resulted in trading halts.

1. December 2013 Gold (GC) Futures Trades.

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2. December 2013 Gold (GC) Futures Trades – Zoom 1.

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3. December 2013 Gold (GC) Futures Trades – Zoom 2.
The 20 second halt shows up clearly. 

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4. December 2013 Gold (GC) Futures Depth of Book (how to read).

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via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/RhTTkZG2hrA/story01.htm Tyler Durden

The recent collapse in the forward guidance from Cisco and various other tech and telecom companies has been widely attributed to the world’s – and mostly China’s – anger at the NSA in the aftermath of the Snowden revelations, resulting in a dramatic collapse in both future visibility and orderbooks. This was admitted in a recent WSJ interview with the CEO of Qualcomm, Paul Jacobs, acknowledged U.S. restrictions on Chinese companies and revelations about surveillance by the National Security Agency are impacting its business in the fast-growing country.

“We are definitely seeing increased pressure,” said Mr. Jacobs in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. “All U.S. tech companies are seeing pressure.”

 

Mr. Jacobs stopped short of saying the pressure hurt its sales, but he did say it affected the way the company operated in China.

 

“[You] have to be very cautious,” he said. “We are always very careful with whatever steps we take. How we sell. How we interact.”

 

Qualcomm tries to be a good partner with some local Chinese manufacturers and build some of its computer chipsets in mainland China, he said. The company doesn’t build cutting edge technology there, but it does build some older trailing technologies in China.

 

Mr. Jacobs said it is “very delicate balancing act that goes on. There’s no question there is an impact.” In the fiscal year ended Sept. 29, Qualcomm generated $1 billion in revenue from China.

 

Mr. Jacobs’ remarks come as some big U.S. computer and software companies are reporting a sudden chill in China sales. On Nov. 14, Cisco Systems Inc. reported orders from China fell 18% and said its world-wide revenue would decline 8% to 10% in the current quarter, in part because of continued weakness in China.

 

Cisco executives were the most explicit so far in suggesting that Chinese customers, particularly those with government ties, may be cutting purchases of U.S. tech gear in response to fallout from the NSA revelations and the U.S. government’s de facto ban on telecom gear from China’s Huawei Technologies Co.

Blockback against US companies took a turn for the worse moments ago, when Qualcomm said China’s price regulator, National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), has started an investigation of the mobile chipmaker under the Chinese Anti-Monopoly Law. According to Reuters, NDRC has advised that the substance of the investigation was confidential, the company said in a statement.

Qualcomm said it was not aware of any violation. Well, maybe not any violation of its own, but it certainly is aware of the NSA exposed violations, which are now impacting US corporations across the globe.

The NDRC is China’s top economic planning body and regulates prices. It has launched nearly 20 pricing-related probes into domestic and foreign firms in the last three years, according to official media reports and research published by law firms.

Qualcomm said it was not aware of any violation. Well, maybe not any violation of its own, but it certainly is aware of the NSA exposed violations, which are now impacting US corporations across the globe. For now, at least, the response has focused on telecom and internet companies, although should domestic pressure increase to punish more US corporations, it is likely that any company doing business in China (coughbloombergcough) will see increasingly more difficulty with staying in compliance, and in generating the kinds of sales and profits they have been used to. Hardly the thing America’s revenue-constrained companies need at this moment, especially with consensus expecting an unprecedented surge in profitability over the next two years to offset the collapse in actual top-line growth.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/mQeAw2x5nz0/story01.htm Tyler Durden

The recent collapse in the forward guidance from Cisco and various other tech and telecom companies has been widely attributed to the world’s – and mostly China’s – anger at the NSA in the aftermath of the Snowden revelations, resulting in a dramatic collapse in both future visibility and orderbooks. This was admitted in a recent WSJ interview with the CEO of Qualcomm, Paul Jacobs, acknowledged U.S. restrictions on Chinese companies and revelations about surveillance by the National Security Agency are impacting its business in the fast-growing country.

“We are definitely seeing increased pressure,” said Mr. Jacobs in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. “All U.S. tech companies are seeing pressure.”

 

Mr. Jacobs stopped short of saying the pressure hurt its sales, but he did say it affected the way the company operated in China.

 

“[You] have to be very cautious,” he said. “We are always very careful with whatever steps we take. How we sell. How we interact.”

 

Qualcomm tries to be a good partner with some local Chinese manufacturers and build some of its computer chipsets in mainland China, he said. The company doesn’t build cutting edge technology there, but it does build some older trailing technologies in China.

 

Mr. Jacobs said it is “very delicate balancing act that goes on. There’s no question there is an impact.” In the fiscal year ended Sept. 29, Qualcomm generated $1 billion in revenue from China.

 

Mr. Jacobs’ remarks come as some big U.S. computer and software companies are reporting a sudden chill in China sales. On Nov. 14, Cisco Systems Inc. reported orders from China fell 18% and said its world-wide revenue would decline 8% to 10% in the current quarter, in part because of continued weakness in China.

 

Cisco executives were the most explicit so far in suggesting that Chinese customers, particularly those with government ties, may be cutting purchases of U.S. tech gear in response to fallout from the NSA revelations and the U.S. government’s de facto ban on telecom gear from China’s Huawei Technologies Co.

Blockback against US companies took a turn for the worse moments ago, when Qualcomm said China’s price regulator, National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), has started an investigation of the mobile chipmaker under the Chinese Anti-Monopoly Law. According to Reuters, NDRC has advised that the substance of the investigation was confidential, the company said in a statement.

Qualcomm said it was not aware of any violation. Well, maybe not any violation of its own, but it certainly is aware of the NSA exposed violations, which are now impacting US corporations across the globe.

The NDRC is China’s top economic planning body and regulates prices. It has launched nearly 20 pricing-related probes into domestic and foreign firms in the last three years, according to official media reports and research published by law firms.

Qualcomm said it was not aware of any violation. Well, maybe not any violation of its own, but it certainly is aware of the NSA exposed violations, which are now impacting US corporations across the globe. For now, at least, the response has focused on telecom and internet companies, although should domestic pressure increase to punish more US corporations, it is likely that any company doing business in China (coughbloombergcough) will see increasingly more difficulty with staying in compliance, and in generating the kinds of sales and profits they have been used to. Hardly the thing America’s revenue-constrained companies need at this moment, especially with consensus expecting an unprecedented surge in profitability over the next two years to offset the collapse in actual top-line growth.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/mQeAw2x5nz0/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Looking ahead at the week ahead, data watchers will be kept fairly occupied before Thanksgiving. Starting with today, we will see US pending home sales with the Treasury also conducting the first of 3 bond auctions this week starting with a $32 billion 2yr note sale later. We will get more housing data tomorrow with the release of housing starts, home prices as well as US consumer confidence. Durable goods, Chicago PMI, initial jobless claims and the final UofM Consumer Sentiment print for November are Wednesday’s highlights although we will also get the UK GDP report for Q3. US Equity and fixed income markets are closed on Thursday but US aside we will get the BoE financial stability report, German inflation, Spanish GDP and Chinese industrial profit stats. Expect market activity to remain subdued into Friday as it will be a half-day for US stocks and bond markets. As ever Black Friday sales will be carefully monitored for consumer spending trends. So a reasonably busy, holiday-shortened week for markets ahead of what will be another crucial payrolls number the following week.

Monday, Nov 25

• Israel MPC: Consensus has policy rate unchanged at 1.00%.
• Germany Bundesbank’s Weidmann speaks at Harvard University
• US Pending Home Sales (Oct): consensus +2.0%, previous -5.6%
• Mexico CA Balance (Q3): GS USD-2.3bn, previous USD-6.0bn
• Taiwan IP (Oct): previous +1.1%yoy
• Also interesting: France Business Confidence (Nov)

Tuesday, Nov 26

• Hungary MPC: Consensus expects a cut of 20bps in policy rate to 3.20%
• US Consumer Confidence (Nov): Consensus 72.4, previous 71.2
• US Housing Starts (Oct): Consensus 920K, previous 891K
• US Richmond Fed Survey (Nov): consensus 3, previous 1
• South Africa GDP (Q3): Consensus +2.0%yoy, previous +2.0%yoy
• Hong Kong Trade Balance (Oct): consensus HKD-35.6bn yoy, previous HKD-42.0bn yoy
• Also interesting: US FHFA and S&P Case Shiller House Price Indexes (Sep)

Wednesday, Nov 27

• Brazil MPC: Consensus expect a hike of 50bps in policy rate to 10.00%yoy. The market will likely be looking for changes in the usually terse post-meeting policy statement for hints the Copom is getting ready to start to taper the pace of rate hikes to a more moderate 25bp at the January meeting. The odds are better than even that the central bank will keep the post meeting statement unchanged in order to maximize the market and credibility impact of the expected 50bp hike.
• Thailand MPC: Consensus has policy rate unchanged at 2.50%yoy
• US U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov, final): Consensus 73.0, previous 72.0
• US Chicago PMI (Oct): Consensus 60.0, previous 65.9
• US Durable Goods Orders (Oct): Consensus -1.9%, previous +3.8%
• US Initial Jobless Claims: consensus 330K, previous 323K
• Japan Retail Sales (Oct): Consensus +2.1%yoy, previous +3.0%yoy
• UK GDP (Q3, rev.): Consensus +1.5%yoy, previous +1.5%yoy
• Mexico Trade Balance (Oct): previous USD+0.66bn
• New Zealand Trade Balance (Oct): Consensus NZD-350mn, previous NZD-1,234mn
• South Korea CA Balance (Oct): previous USD+5.7bn yoy
• Also interesting: Germany GFK Consumer Confidence (Dec)

Thursday, Nov 28

• UK CB issues Financial Stability Report followed by BoE governor Carney speech
• Sweden CB issues Financial Stability Report
• Germany Harmonized CPI (Nov, flash): consensus +1.2%yoy, previous +1.2%yoy
• Spain Harmonized CPI (Nov, flash): consensus +0.1%yoy, previous 0.0%yoy
• Euro Area Consumer Confidence (Nov, final): consensus -15.4, previous -15.4
• Japan Household Survey (Oct)
• Japan Core CPI (Oct): Exp. +0.9%yoy
• Japan IP (Oct): consensus +6.3%yoy, previous +5.1%yoy
• Brazil IGP-M Inflation (Nov): Previous 5.27% yoy
• Canada CA Balance (Q3): consensus USD-14.4bn, previous USD-14.6bn
• Switzerland GDP (Q3): Consensus +1.8%yoy, previous +2.5%yoy
• Philippines GDP (Q3): Consensus +7.1%yoy, previous +7.5%yoy
• Also interesting: Spain GDP (Q3, rev.), Italy Business Confidence (Nov), South Korea IP (Oct)

Friday, Nov 29

• Euro Area Harmonized CPI (Nov, flash): Consensus +0.8%yoy, previous +0.7%yoy
• France Consumer Confidence (Oct)
• UK GFK Consumer Confidence (Nov): consensus -10, previous -11
• Japan Housing Starts (Oct): consensus +5.0%yoy, previous +19.4%yoy
• South Korea IP (Oct): Previous -3.6% yoy
• Turkey Trade Balance (Oct): consensus USD-7.2bn, previous USD-7.5bn
• South Africa Trade Balance (Oct): consensus ZAR-13.5bn, previous ZAR-12.0bn
• Thailand Current Account Balance (Oct): previous USD-534mn
• Canada GDP (Sep): consensus +0.2%mom, previous +0.3%mom
• Sweden GDP (Q3): Consensus +0.4%yoy, previous +0.1%yoy
• Also interesting: India GDP (Q3), Taiwan GDP (Q3, final), UK Mortgage Approvals and Consumer Credit (Oct)

 

Visually, from SocGen:

TOP ISSUES FOR THE WEEK AHEAD

FINALISING A GRAND COALITION DEAL

Chancellor Merkel Friday expressed hope that agreement on the Grand Coalition would be reach over the coming week. As we detailed last week, the  agreement is set to include a minimum wage. Although the sum of proposals under discussion amount to just under 2% of GDP, the Chancellor has already warned that measures must be funded. Once agreed, the 470,000 members of the SPD will then voted on the proposal. Media reports suggest that the result will only be known on 14 December. Our expectation is that the Grand Coalition will receive support from the SPD members, but it is not a foregone conclusion. Moreover, as we have highlighted on several occasions, there is a real risk that a Grand Coalition will not survive the full electoral term.

UK AUTUMN STATEMENT

As we detail inside this edition of the Week Ahead, the OBR is due to provide the next update of its UK public finance projections on 5 December, alongside  the government’s Autumn Statement. Special factors have helped flatter the number and the OBR should confirm its March judgement that while the deficit path is still met, the debt path is not. Gilt issuance should be revised down by £2bn to £153.7bn for the current 2013-14 fiscal year. 2014-15 issuance should be £152.7bn, far lower than the DMO’s previous illustrative projection of £178bn given at the March Budget.

US DURABLE GOODS TO CONTRACT

We look for a decline of 3.2% in October durable goods, erasing the bulk of the 3.8% gain in the previous month. Moreover, this decline will in our opinion not just be limited to the more volatile transportation component. US markets will thus head off for Thanksgiving in the expectation that there is little risk of tapering at the 17-18 December FOMC. The key report will be the employment report due the following week, but we believe the Fed will want more evidence than that provided by just one report to change policy and maintain our call for taper in March.

A FINAL 50BP RATE HIKE FROM BRAZIL

The COPOM is expected to deliver a final 50bp rate hike this week taking the Selic target rate to 10%. We then expect the BCB to pause. Once the Fed
starts to taper, the BCB could again be facing the dilemma of stemming currency depreciation and its inflationary impact and not further dampen an already below trend economy.

Sources: Deutsche, Goldman, SocGen

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• Washington turns bond market upside (FT)
• China Air-Zone Move Expands Field of Islands Spat With Japan (BBG); Japan rejects China claim on airspace over disputed islands (FT)
• ‘Great Satan’ meets ‘Axis of Evil’ and strikes a deal (Reuters)
• Iran Pact Faces Stiff Opposition (WSJ)
• Allies Fear a US Pullback in Mideast (WSJ)
• India to resume paying Iran in Euros (Economic Times)
• At ‘Business Insider,’ it’s time to sell (USA Today)
• Auto and Shipping Firms Among Potential Iran Deal Winners (BBG)
• More ECB currency war jawboning: ECB’s Hansson Says Rate Cut Options Not Fully Exhausted (BBG)
• Spy World Links Plus Obama Ties Stoke Concern About NSA Review (BBG)
• A disunited Europe will struggle even to disintegrate (FT)
• Europe needs new dream to revive fortunes (Reuters)
• Microsoft Says Initial Xbox One Sales Exceed 1 Million (BBG)
• Europe Twin Woes Fester in Draghi Job-to-Inflation Fight (BBG)
• Norway poised to relax rules to fight house price deflation (BBG)
• Bank of America Intern’s 5 A.M. E-Mail Before Death Worried Mom (BBG)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

* A bitterly divided Senate voted Thursday to eliminate filibusters for most presidential nominees, a momentous and politically risky step that limits the ability of Republicans to block President Obama’s choices for executive-branch and most judicial posts.

* Sales of convertible bonds are booming, as investors seeking to benefit from the roaring U.S. stock rally rush to purchase debt that can convert into shares.

* Charter Communications is nearing an agreement with banks to borrow money for a bid for Time Warner Cable , according to people familiar with the situation.

* The Dow industrials vaulted past another milestone as stocks closed above 16,000 for the first time, extending a record run fueled by optimism for a recovering global economy and continuing low interest rates.

* The U.S. plans to sell its remaining shares in General Motors by year-end, completing the final piece of the government’s controversial bailout of the nation’s largest auto maker.

* The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority is highlighting a fast-track program it began earlier this year to go after what it calls “high-risk brokers.”

* Janet Yellen’s confirmation as the next Federal Reserve chief became a virtual lock Thursday when a Senate committee approved her nomination and Senate Democrats eased the confirmation process for most presidential nominees.

* After 15 months of appeals and an eight-day retrial, a dispute between Apple Inc and Samsung Electronics Ltd over smartphone patents has come nearly full circle.

* UBS AG has reached an immunity deal with European Union antitrust authorities that will spare the giant Swiss bank from further fines for manipulation of benchmark interest rates, according to people familiar with the matter.

 

NYT

* A software engineer from Springfield, Missouri, Lawrence Blankenship is putting his money on PeerCoin, one of the biggest of the virtual currencies that are being promoted as alternatives to bitcoin.

* Carlson, the global hospitality and travel company, said on Friday that it had authorized a review of strategic alternatives including a possible sale of TGI Friday’s restaurants.

* A former top executive at the Credit Suisse Group was sentenced to two and a half years in prison on Friday for inflating the value of mortgage bonds as the housing market collapsed.

* The regulator of accounting firms in the United States said on Friday that Deloitte & Touche, for the second consecutive year, had failed to correct deficiencies in its audit procedures to its satisfaction.

* Skip Hop agreed Friday to sell a majority stake in itself to Fireman Capital Partners, a consumer-focused investment firm. Financial details of the transaction weren’t disclosed, but people briefed on the matter said that the deal was valued at nearly $60 million.

* Activist investor William Ackman said on Friday that he intended to take his high-stakes bet against Herbalife, the nutritional supplements company, “to the end of the earth.”

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

* Canada’s Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is once again asking opposition parties for their best ideas on the upcoming federal budget, but only if they cost the government little or no money, or don’t involve raising taxes.

* Canada’s commitment to NATO is being questioned by the military alliance, says its deputy secretary-general Alexander Vershbow, who suggests Canada is backing away.

* Protesters in Thailand’s capital entered the Finance Ministry compound on Monday in an escalating campaign to topple the government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra.

Reports in the business section:

* A report on gross domestic product out on Friday is expected to show third-quarter economic activity in Canada quickened to an annual 2.5 percent pace after growth of 1.7 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively, in the previous two quarters.

* The drumbeat of plant closings by manufacturers in Canada continued on Friday as CCL Industries Inc said it will close its aerosol manufacturing plant by the middle of 2015. The plant will begin winding down operations early next year, eliminating 170 jobs in Penetanguishene, Ontario, northwest of Toronto. ()

NATIONAL POST

* A senior Somali government official wants Canadians to pay closer attention to youths to make sure they are not being influenced by radical preachers trying to lure them into taking up arms in his country.

* The long-standing quest to bring an NFL team to Toronto has a new and unexpected ally in the form of New Jersey-b
orn rocker Jon Bon Jovi, who is part of a small group planning to bid for the Buffalo Bills and move them north when the team’s aging owner dies.

FINANCIAL POST

* Investors are going to have to work far harder in 2014 to replicate this year’s bumper gains by turning over more trades or pushing out into riskier investments.

 

China

PEOPLE’S DAILY

– China will focus on its recent campaign against price manipulation in six industries — aviation, daily chemicals, automobiles, telecommunications, medicals and home appliances, officials at the National Development and Reform Commission, the country’s top economic planners, said.

– A commentary by this mouthpiece of the ruling Communist Party of China (CPC) said Japan’s distortion of history to cover its war crimes means it will not be able to keep harmonious relationship with the international society.

CHINA SECURITIES JOURNAL

– Participants at the annual China Fortune Forum over the weekend forecast that 2014 will be the starting point of a new round of sweeping reforms in the country after a crucial CPC central committee plenum mapped out reform plans earlier this month.

– Economists forecast that China’s economy is likely to grow 7.7 percent in 2014, slightly slower than an estimated 7.8 percent for 2013, with the consumer price index (CPI) dropping to 2.7 percent next year from a forecast of 3.2 percent for this year.

SHANGHAI SECURITIES NEWS

– The China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) has submitted new proposals relating to relaxing curbs on the country’s private banks to the State Council, the cabinet, for approval, Chen Sheng, a CBRC official, told a forum in Shanghai.

– The Dalian Commodity Exchange may launch fibreboard and veneer board futures on Dec. 6 after the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced on Friday that it had allowed the exchange to launch the futures.

CHINA DAILY

– Mercedes-Benz marked another step in the rapid expansion of its network of dealerships in China when it opened its latest retail in Shanghai.

 

Fly On The Wall 7:00 AM Market Snapshot

ANALYST RESEARCH

Upgrades

Alcoa (AA) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman
Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James
CDW Corporation (CDW) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays
Caterpillar (CAT) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
Finish Line (FINL) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Sterne Agee
Green Dot (GDOT) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies
R.R. Donnelley (RRD) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Benchmark Co.

Downgrades

Brocade (BRCD) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at ISI Group
Campbell Soup (CPB) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman
Clorox (CLX) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman
Deere (DE) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital
JetBlue (JBLU) downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Raymond James
PAA Natural Gas Storage (PNG) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS
Schnitzer Steel (SCHN) downgraded to Underperform from Hold at Jefferies

Initiations

8×8, Inc. (EGHT) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank
8×8, Inc. (EGHT) initiated with an Overweight at Barclays
AmSurg (AMSG) initiated with an Equal Weight at Barclays
Burger King (BKW) initiated with a Buy at Goldman
Church & Dwight (CHD) initiated with a Buy at Goldman
Criteo (CRTO) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank
Criteo (CRTO) initiated with an Outperform at William Blair
Criteo (CRTO) initiated with an Overweight at JPMorgan
Energizer (ENR) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman
Essent Group (ESNT) initiated with an Outperform at Keefe Bruyette
Flowserve (FLS) initiated with a Buy at SunTrust
Navigator Holdings (NVGS) initiated with an Outperform at Imperial Capital
ONEOK (OKE) initiated with an Outperform at RW Baird
Plains All American (PAA) reinstated with a Buy at Goldman
Plains GP Holdings (PAGP) initiated with a Buy at UBS
Plains GP Holdings (PAGP) initiated with a Conviction Buy at Goldman
Plains GP Holdings (PAGP) initiated with a Market Perform at Wells Fargo
Praxair (PX) initiated with a Neutral at UBS
Springleaf (LEAF) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup
Springleaf (LEAF) initiated with an Outperform at Keefe Bruyette
Springleaf (LEAF) initiated with an Overweight at Barclays
Surgical Care Affiliates (SCAI) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup
Surgical Care Affiliates (SCAI) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman
UMB Financial (UMBF) initiated with a Market Perform at Wells Fargo
Zoetis (ZTS) initiated with a Market Perform at William Blair

HOT STOCKS

Microsoft (MSFT) said sold over 1M Xbox One consoles in less than 24 hours
The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services to lower 2014 home health care payments less than proposed (AMED, GTIV, LHCG, AFAM)
Pfizer India (PFE), Wyeth India to merge
Giant Interactive (GA) received proposal to be acquired for $11.75 per share
Wi-LAN (WILN), InfoSonics (IFON) signed wireless license, terms confidential

EARNINGS

Companies that beat consensus earnings expectations last night and today include:
Qihoo 360 (QIHU), Tower Group (TWGP)

Companies that missed consensus earnings expectations include:
Seadrill (SDRL)

NEWSPAPERS/WEBSITES

• Top JPMorgan Chase (JPM) attorney Stephen Cutler was confrontational with regulators Daniel Stipano of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and Deb Morris of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau at a conference. “At what point does this stop?” he said, referring to record-setting fines for JPMorgan and other large banks. “We should all be concerned,” he added, “because at a certain point people become immune to the numbers,” the Wall Street Journal reports
• Services union Ver.di called for strikes today, over wages and benefits, at two of Amazon.com’s (AMZN) German locations, and threatened further action as the year’s busiest shopping season sets in, the Wall Street Journal reports
• PSA Peugeot Citroen (PEUGY) is interviewing candidates to replace CEO Philippe Varin, after Chinese partner Dongfeng said a deeper alliance under negotiation should be accompanied by management change, sources say, Reuters reports
• Lloyds Banking Group (LYG) will probably sell 30% to 50% of its stake in the 631 bank branches being rebranded as TSB when the new entity floats on the stock market in 2014, according to the Sunday Telegraph reports, Reuters reports
• Dish Network (DISH) shareholders are asking a Nevada judge to exclude the company’s chairman and controlling shareholder, Charlie Ergen, from the bankruptcy court auction of LightSquared, Bloomberg reports
• A breakup of Time Warner Cable (TWC), which Comcast (CMCSA) and Charter Communications (CHTR) are said to be considering as part of a joint bid, would let the industry consolidate while potentially sidestepping regulatory hurdles, Bloomberg reports

BARRON’S

Sirius XM (SIRI) could rise 50%
Home Depot (HD), Coach (COH), others (KSS, BBBY, M, CHS, URBN, DG, DDS) could benefit this holiday season
An acquisition could drive Berkshire Hills Bancorp (BHLB) higher
Qualcomm (QCOM) shares could rise 20%
Investors should wait on Intel (INTC)

SYNDICATE
DHT Holdings (DHT) announces sale of $110M of equity in private placement
Del Frisco’s (DFRG) files to sell 6.2M shares of common stock for holders
HealthSouth (HLS) files to sell 1.12M shares of stock, 5.4M warrants for holders
Taminco (TAM) files to sell $242.7M shares for Apollo Group affiliates

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