Why Glenn Greenwald Believes Ted Cruz Is More Dangerous Than Donald Trump

Some very good, if politically incorrect, points from Glenn Greenwald on cause and effect in the aftermath of the Brussels terrorism in this DemocracyNow interview.

The key section is below:

What we’ve seen in Brussels is the same exact pattern as we’ve seen, essentially, for the last 15 years each time there is one of these attacks. There is never any sense at all that there’s some balance needed between security, on the one hand, and civil liberties and privacy and a constrained budget for our military and intelligence, on the other. Every single time there’s a terrorist attack—every single time—politicians like Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz come forward and say we need more of everything we’ve been doing. We need more money for intelligence, more surveillance authorities, more military presence, more security. You know, imagine if every single time there were a fatal car accident, every single time, in response, someone said not, “Well, we accept the fact that in exchange for having roads, we know there’s going to be some fatalities,” but instead, every time, said, “We need more safety regulations for cars. We need to lower the speed limit even further.” The reality is, in an open society, especially if you have a government that is constantly bombing people around the world, there are going to be people who want to bring back violence to you and who are going to succeed in doing it. You can’t stop people in every case. And it’s not necessarily the case that each time there’s a terrorist attack it means that you need more security measures, more intelligence gathering, and more security and military adventures in the way that politicians just almost reflexively call for.

 

I think it’s really important to note a couple things about Brussels. Number one is, the Brussels attack is now the fourth straight attack, after Boston, the Charlie Hebdo massacre and then the Paris attacks, where siblings, brothers, were at the heart of the planning. And just like in those three previous attacks that I just referenced, the attacks were carried out by people who live in the same communities, who live very close to one another, and who almost certainly met in person in order to plan them. And yet, the exploitive mindset of Western politicians is to say, every time there’s a successful attack carried out, it means we need to wage war on encryption, we need greater surveillance, we need more police in these communities. But the reality is, if people are meeting in person, if you’re talking about siblings and cousins and family members and people who go to the same mosques, who are meeting in person to plan the attacks, none of that will actually help detect the attack.

 

What’s amazing is that if you listen to the media narrative about how these attacks get discussed—and I had the misfortune of listening to hours of CNN coverage and MSNBC coverage, because I’m traveling, about these attacks—the one question that’s never asked is “What is the motive of the attackers? Why are people who are in their twenties and thirties willing to sacrifice their lives to kill innocent people in this really horrific way?” And ultimately, it’s not hard to figure out. They say what it is, and it’s really not that difficult, which is the countries that they’re targeting—France and Belgium and the United States and others—are in Iraq and Syria bombing ISIS. And so, of course, it’s just natural to expect—doesn’t mean it’s justified; it’s never justified to target civilians, but it’s natural to expect—that countries that go and bomb ISIS, ISIS is going to want to bomb and attack back, just as the United States, for 15 years, has been declaring itself at war and bombing multiple countries and then acts surprised when people want to come and attack us back.

 

And so I think, more than saying we need more intelligence and more surveillance and wage war on encryption and more bombing campaigns, we need to be asking whether there are things that we can be doing that reduce the incentive for people to want to kill us—and in the process, kill themselves—and especially the support infrastructure that they get because of the anti-American and anti-European sentiment that gets generated when we engage in all of this violence in the world.

And here, in the context of US foreign policy, is Greenwald’s curious take on the distinction between Cruz and Trump:

I do get a little bit disturbed by this widespread notion on the part of a lot of well-intentioned people that Donald Trump is somehow so far outside of what we regard as what had been previously acceptable within American political discourse. I mean, if you look at what Ted Cruz has actually been saying and what he’s been doing, you could certainly make the case—and I would be someone who agrees with this—that Ted Cruz is, in many respects, maybe most respects, more dangerous than Trump. I mean, Ted Cruz is this true evangelical believer who seems to be really eager to promote this extremist religious agenda. You have him constantly expressing animosity toward Islam and toward Muslims in a way that’s sort of redolent of almost a religious-type war. He holds himself out as this constitutional scholar and small-government conservative and yet advocates some of the most extremely unconstitutional measures you could possibly imagine, like targeting American communities filled with Muslims with additional police patrolling and monitoring and surveillance and scrutinizing.

 

And as far as Donald Trump is concerned, you know, when he comes out and says, “I want to do waterboarding and worse,” and we all act so shocked, I mean, as you just said, you know, he almost deserves credit for what he’s saying, in the sense that he’s being more honest. The United States for 10 years did engage in torture. We did use not only waterboarding, but techniques far worse. And the reason why that’s still part of the debate is because the current administration, under President Obama, made the choice not to prosecute any of the people who implemented those techniques and who used to them, despite the fact that we’re parties to treaties requiring their criminal prosecution. And when he did that, he turned torture into nothing more than just a standard partisan political debate.

 

And that’s why people like Donald Trump are able to stand up without much repercussion and advocate that we use those techniques. But we shouldn’t act all that shocked. The U.S. government did exactly what Donald Trump is advocating as recently as seven or eight years ago.

Greenwald’s punchline on Trump:

I think if you look at the reaction to Donald Trump and this kind of horror that even Republican elites and conservatives are expressing when reacting toward him, to call it hypocritical is really to be generous. It is true that he doesn’t use the language of political diplomacy. He doesn’t really use euphemisms. He speaks like ordinary people speak when talking about politics at their dining room table, which is one of the reasons for his appeal. And in that sense, he actually provides an important value, which is he’s stripping away the pretense of what the American political system and American political culture have become and describing it in a much more honest way. And that’s the reason that so many Republican elites and other media figures, who have no problem with Republican politicians or even Democratic politicians who advocate similar policies, why they’re so offended by Donald Trump, because he sort of renders the entire system nakedly candid about what it actually is.

Full interview


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Australian Dollar versus United States Dollar Currency Cross Analysis 3 27 2016 (Video)

By EconMatters

We look at the AUD/USD Currency Cross in this video. Will the AUD get back to parity with the USD? The AUD is off the 2016 lows, will it strengthen or weaken from here for the remainder of the year? This is the big question for currency traders after the rally off the January lows in the AUD.

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Easter Weekend At Bernie’s

While we suspect there will be few, if any, easter eggs adorning Bernie's house this weekend, the following artist's impression accurately explains the micro-aggression of egg-hoarding and the fairness of redistribution that an increasing number of Millennials seem to prefer…

 

Source: Townhall.com

 

"I kinda like the old system better…" indeed.


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“Worse Than 2008” World Trade Collapses To 10 Year Lows

Submitted by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com,

This wasn’t part of the rosy scenario.

The Merchandise World Trade Monitor by the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, a division of the Ministry of Economic Affairs, tracks global imports and exports in two measures: by volume and by unit price in US dollars. And the just released data for January was a doozie beneath the lackluster surface.

The World Trade Monitor for January, as measured in seasonally adjusted volume, declined 0.4% from December and was up a measly 1.1% from January a year ago. While the sub-index for import volumes rose 3% from a year ago, export volumes fell 0.7%. This sort of “growth,” languishing between slightly negative and slightly positive has been the rule last year.

The report added this about trade momentum:

Regional outcomes were mixed. Both import and export momentum became more negative in the United States. Both became more positive in the Euro Area. Import momentum in emerging Asia rose further, whereas export momentum in emerging Asia has been negative for four consecutive months.

This is also what the world’s largest container carrier, Maersk Lines, and others forecast for 2016: a growth rate of about zero to 1% in terms of volume. So not exactly an endorsement of a booming global economy.

But here’s the doozie: In terms of prices per unit expressed in US dollars, world trade dropped 3.8% in January from December and is down 12.1% from January a year ago, continuing a rout that started in June 2014. Not that the index was all that strong at the time, after having cascaded lower from its peak in May 2011.

If June 2014 sounds familiar as a recent high point, it’s because a lot of indices started heading south after that, including the price of oil, revenues of S&P 500 companies, total business revenues in the US…. That’s when the Fed was in the middle of tapering QE out of existence and folks realized that it would be gone soon. That’s when the dollar began to strengthen against other key currencies. Shortly after that, inventories of all kinds in the US began to bloat.

Starting from that propitious month, the unit price index of world trade has plunged 23%. It’s now lower than it had been at the trough of the Financial Crisis. It hit the lowest level since March 2006:

World-Trade-Monitor-2006_2016-01-prices-unit-usd

This chart puts in perspective what Nils Andersen, the CEO of Danish conglomerate AP Møller-Maersk, which owns Maersk Lines, had said last month in an interview following the company’s dreary earnings report and guidance: “It is worse than in 2008.” [Read… “Worse than 2008”: World’s Largest Container Carrier on the Slowdown in Global Trade.]

But why the difference between the stagnation scenario in world trade in terms of volume and the total collapse of the index that measures world trade in unit prices in US dollars?

The volume measure is a reflection of a languishing global economy. It says that global trade may be sick, but it’s not collapsing. It’s worse than it was in 2011. This sort of thing was never part of the rosy scenario. But now it’s here.

The unit price measure in US dollars is a reflection of two forces, occurring simultaneously: the collapsed prices of the commodities complex, ranging from oil to corn; and the strength of the US dollar, or rather the weakness of certain other currencies, particularly the euro. It didn’t help that since last summer, the Chinese yuan has swooned against the dollar as well. So exports and imports from and to China, measured in dollars, have crashed further than when measured in yuan.

And these forces coagulated at a time of lackluster global demand despite, or because of, seven years of QE, zero-interest-rate policies, and now negative-interest-rate policies. It forms another indictment of central bank policies that have failed to stimulate demand though they have succeeded wonderfully in stimulating asset prices, malinvestment, and overcapacity.

World trade in goods is just one factor in the global economy. Now the global financial sector is getting hit too as the artful QE bonanza is bumping into real-world limits. And for global investment banking revenues, a key income source for “systemically important” banks, it has been one heck of a terrible first quarter. Read… The Big Unwind Hits Investment Banking


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Suicide Bomber Kills At Least 55, Injures 150 In Pakistan Public Park

While the Western media is busy reporting each and every development (no matter how insignificant) in the ongoing effort to uncover more information about the ISIS cell responsible for the Paris attacks and Tuesday’s bombings at the Brussels airport and metro, the Arab world continues to suffer from daily violence the scope of which is often far greater than what unfolded in Belgium this week. 

Just yesterday for instance, a suicide bomber struck a soccer field in Iraq, killing more than two dozen and on Sunday, a blast at a crowded park in Lahore, Pakistan killed more than 50 and injured at least 100. Some reports suggest the majority of the casualties were women and children.

“It is like we’re in a state of war,” senior police officer Haider Ashraf said. “This was a soft target, innocent people, women and children were hit.”

“Local television footage showed distraught parents running with their injured children into a hospital, while many others were brought by ambulance,” WSJ writes, adding that “police said the blast was in an area of the park where children were playing on swings, taken by their parents for an outing on a Sunday evening.” Here’s more from Reuters

Eyewitnesses said they saw body parts strewn across the parking lot once the dust had settled after the blast.

 

The park had been particularly busy on Sunday evening due to the Easter holiday weekend.

Salman Rafique, a health adviser for the Punjab provincial government, put the death toll at least 52 people.

 

“Most of the dead and injured are women and children,” said Mustansar Feroz, police superintendent for the area in which the park is located.

 

Media footage showed children and women crying and screaming and rescue officials, police and bystanders carrying injured people to ambulances and private cars.

Here are the visuals from the scene:

Paklstan has seen some of the most gruesome and heinous violence witnessed throughout the Mid-East in recent years.

In January, Taliban linked militants killed dozens at a university in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and in December of 2014, 144 people were murdered at the Army Public School in Peshawar, where the Taliban walked desk to desk executing children ages 12-16.


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Who To Blame For the Rise of ISIS?

Earlier this week, ISIS claimed responsibility for the deadly bombings in Brussels, which took the lives of 34 people. 

Anthony Fisher sat down with Michael Weiss, co-author of the New York Times bestseller ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror in October to discuss ISIS and how it was created.

Originally published on Oct 15, 2015

“I’m out of solutions here,” says Michael Weiss, a senior editor at The Daily Beast and co-author of the New York Times bestseller, ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror, widely viewed as the most comprehensive study of the brutal Islamist entity that controls a wide swath of land between Iraq and Syria.

Speaking with Reason TV about U.S. involvement in the disastrous Syrian civil war, Weiss laments, “I can speak glibly about no-fly zones, but at this point I just understand this administration is never going to do anything to rescue the Syrian people or prevent Assad, Iran, and Russia from killing everybody they want to.”

Weiss, a foreign affairs reporter with extensive experience covering the Middle East and Russia, believes that the U.S. had options besides war that could have prevented the refugee crisis becoming the global fiasco it is today. But, charges Weiss, President Obama’s determination to achieve a nuclear deal with Iran meant he refused to pursue policies that might disrupt Assad’s Syria. 

With Russian jets bombing non-ISIS rebel groups in Syria and Obama leaving office in early 2017, Weiss “guarantees the following: Assad will still be in Damascus. ISIS will still be in Syria [and] eventually Russia will bomb ISIS, but they haven’t really been doing it yet.”

Produced by Anthony L. Fisher. Camera by Jim Epstein with help from Dan Rogenstein.

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ISIS Suffers Major Blow As Assad, Russia, Hezbollah Drive Terrorists From Ancient Syrian City

“You know I mean look… broadly speaking …. you know… it’s not a great choice… an either/or… but… you know…”

That was the response from State Department spokesman Mark Toner when two reporters asked him whether the US was pleased that the Syrian army, backed by Hezbollah ground forces and Russian airstrikes was set to retake the ancient city of Palmyra from Islamic State.

The lack of enthusiasm for the Russian-backed effort made for an amusing soundbite and might have come as a surprise to the uninitiated. But for those who follow the conflict in Syria it was par for the course in Washington. As recently as last August The Pentagon and CIA were still holding out some hope that rebel forces might manage to oust Assad and that somehow, ISIS and al-Nusra would subsequently be subdued. The worst case scenario would have seen ISIS itself march into Damascus and take control of the country, but that would have been fine too because then the Marines would simply march in and promptly eliminate the group paving the way for Washington and Riyadh to step in and install a puppet government.

Then the entire calculus changed when Russia entered the fray on September 30. From October on, Washington struggled with how to respond to gains made by Hezbollah and Russia. On the one hand, Moscow was hitting ISIS and al-Nusra hard from the air and the US couldn’t very well condemn that without admitting that “the terrorists” serve a purpose in Syria. On the other hand, relentless bombing runs by Russian warplanes paved the way for Hezbollah and other Iran-backed militias to lay waste to the “moderate” rebels that stood between Assad and Aleppo and that, the US said, was “no fair.” Once Aleppo proper (i.e. the city itself) was surrounded, the rebels basically surrendered (that’s not what they’ll say, nor is it the line you’ll get from Washington and Riyadh, but it’s no coincidence that the ceasefire was agreed at the exact same time that the city was surrounded).

And so, with that bit of messy business out of the way, and with the rebels having agreed to lay down their weapons in exchange for Russia’s promise that the air force wouldn’t seek to wipe them out entirely, Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah did exactly what we said they would do: turned their sights east towards Palmyra, Deir el-Zour, and Raqqa. Here’s what we said in October:

“Hezbollah and Iranian troops are advancing on Aleppo and Moscow is backing the offensive from the sky which means that the hodgepodge of anti-regime forces that control Syria’s largest city will almost (and we say “almost” because there are no sure things in war) certainly be routed, which would effectively serve to restore the Assad regime in Syria.

 

After that, the Russian bear and Qasem Soleimani will turn their eyes to the East of the country and at that point, it is game over for ISIS.

Well, we hate to say “we told you so,” but that assessment has proven to be 100% accurate and after a weeks long siege, Bashar al-Assad announced on Sunday that with the help of Russia and Hezbollah, the Syrian army has driven ISIS from Palmyra.

Syrian government forces backed by Russian airstrikes drove Islamic State fighters from Palmyra on Sunday, ending the group’s 10-month reign of terror over a town whose famed 2,000-year-old ruins once drew tens of thousands of visitors each year,” AFP reports. “In comments reported on state TV, President Bashar Assad described the Palmyra operation as a ‘significant achievement’ offering ‘new evidence of the effectiveness of the strategy espoused by the Syrian army and its allies in the war against terrorism.’” Here’s more:

Gen. Ali Mayhoub announced on the station that that the fall of Palmyra “directs a fatal blow to Daesh, undermines the morale of its mercenaries, and ushers in the start of its defeat and retreat,” referring to IS by its Arabic acronym. He said it lays the ground for further advances toward Raqqa, the IS group’s de facto capital, and Deir el-Zour, an eastern city it largely controls.

 

Troops in Palmyra are now dismantling explosive booby traps planted by IS, the station reported. State TV and a Britain-based monitoring group later reported that troops captured a military airport to the east.


 

The advance marks a strategic and symbolic victory for the government, which has sought to portray itself as a bulwark against terrorism. The town was an important juncture on an IS supply line connecting its territory in central and northern Syria to the Anbar province in Iraq, where the group also holds territory.

Unfortunately, ISIS did manage to destroy quite a bit of the city’s cultural heritage, including the Triumphal Archs.

Here’s a rundown of the damage, again from AFP:

  • State TV showed the rubble left over from the destruction of the Temple of Bel as well as the damaged archway, the supports of which were still standing. It said a statue of Zenobia, the 3rd century queen who ruled an independent state from Palmyra and figures strongly in Syrian lore, was missing.
  • Artefacts inside the city’s museum also appeared heavily damaged on state TV.
  • A sculpture of the Greek goddess Athena was shown decapitated.
  • The museum’s basement appeared to have been dynamited, the hall littered with broken statues.

Of course ISIS also desecrated a The Roman Theatre where last year, city residents were forced to watch as two dozen teenage ISIS trainees carried out a mass execution of captured SAA soldiers.

As Syrian and Iran-backed Shiite forces cleared the city, Vladimir Putin called Bashar al-Assad to congratulate him on the victory. Russia, Putin said, would continue to support the government in its efforts to drive ISIS, al-Nusra, and other jihadist elements from the country.

At last check, Assad hadn’t received a congratulatory call from Obama…


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China Tries To “Suddenly” Pop Latest Housing Bubble While Reflating Stock, Car Bubbles

One week ago we demonstrated just how massive the second Chinese housing bubble when we showed the ridiculous move at the epicenter of China’s latest scramble to reflate “animal spirits” in Shenzhen – one which has put even the recent Chinese stock market bubble to shame – as follows:

 

It appears that the Chinese Politburo has also noticed that it finds itself straddled with yet another unsustainable housing bubble, not only in Shenzhen, but also Shanghai, and all other Tier 1 cities…

 

… and has taken aggressive steps to slow down this exponential surge in prices before it gets even more out of control. As a result, on Friday the local government took the following “sudden” steps to halt the exponential rise in home prices and tighten the local housing market dramatically. From Deutsche Bank:

In the evening of 25 Mar, Shenzhen issued a notice regarding the improvement of the system in the property market:

  1. To implement differential mortgage policies: i) for those who are not owning any properties and do not have mortgage records in the past 2 years, minimum downpayment remains changed at 30%; ii) for those who are not owning any properties and have mortgage records in the past 2 years, but have fully repaid the outstanding mortgage loan, 40% minimum downpayment will be applied
  2. To improve the house purchasing policies: Families with local hukou are allowed to purchase two house units at most, for non-local families, if they can provide 3 years of income tax or social security payments (vs 1 year currently), they are allowed to purchase one house unit. House purchasing rules on overseas individual and company will be strictly implemented
  3. To increase housing supply by different channels
  4. To improve the social housing system: target for new construction starts of social housing during the thirteen-fifth year period is 400k units; 350k of social housing units will be supplied to talents and eligible citizens.
  5. To standardize and manage market order
  6. To enhance the financial risk controls: “Loans for downpayments” will be proper managed. “Loans for downpayment”, crowd-funding house purchasing, bridge financing & other activities with financial leverage provided by internet financing & micro-financing companies are strictly prohibited.

Deutsche Bank’s summary:

The above rules are effective immediately on 25 Mar, 2016. Also, the government said it will also increase land supply and increase development of social housing and shanty town redevelopment. During the Thirteenth Five Year period, Shenzhen government is planning to develop 400,000 units of social housing. Overall, the above tightening measures have been talked about in the market for about 2 months, but have not been introduced; hence some market participants believe that the government is unlikely to take action. Hence, the sudden introduction of the tightening measures (or the timing) is out of market expectations.

Whether these measures will be sufficient to curb further price gains remains to be seen. However, while the government is popping one bubble, it is already doing its best to reflate not just one but two more.

The first, as we reported earlier this week, is the PBOC’s attempt to reflate the stock bubble once again, when earlier this week China once again loosened margin debt curbs hoping to once again get China’s speculative gamblers to load up on stocks.

The second bubble reflation attempt goes back to what we reported last Sunday when we showed that Chinese car sales suffered their biggest two-month drop on record after China tried its own version of “Cash for Clunkers” in late 2015 when the government scrambled to boost car sales with its latest policy stimulus. Instead, all it did was merely pull demand forward as the chart below shows.

 

Did it learn its lesson? No. As Bloomberg reports, China will “appropriately” cut down payment requirement of loans for used-car purchases to promote transactions, State Council said in guidelines. Among the latest stimulus, whose full text can be found here, China proposes the following:

  • China to simplify procedures for used-car transactions
  • Use-car market has huge potential to develop; can also help consumption of new cars
  • Auto industry is a key sector to help stabilize economic growth and boost consumption

To summarize: China is trying to gently let the air out of its second in three years housing bubble; and just in case the local population gets restless, it is providing it with not one but two alternatives: either back into stocks (where it hopes everyone has forgotten what happened just last summer), or into used autos; because China most certainly does not have a smog and pollution problem.


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Time For Another Leg Down? UBS Calls A Top As Corporate Profits Sink

Jobs Cull In The City As Financial Crisis Worsens

Big banks usually promise their clients all sorts of good things and always continue to issue recommendations to continue to invest in stocks and bonds (obviously to rake in their fees), UBS chartists and technicians Muller and Riesner have now publicly stated we might have seen another top of the S&P 500 index.

And when Muller and Riesner speak up, the investment community listens, as these two technical analysts have correctly predicted the two previous corrections (and the recent increase in the gold price), so they do enjoy some respect in the market. They were already correct in seeing the S&P hitting their target at 2050 points earlier this week, but this target was reached much faster than originally anticipated, and we think it’s now fair to say we have seen two V-shaped corrections on the stock market and these corrections might have been wiped out too fast, too soon. Indeed, apparently to the UBS-analysts, the S&P index has now reached its most overbought situation since 2009, and that’s quite a statement to make!

Buyback 3

Source: Stockcharts.com

Of course, at Secular Investor we don’t just act on what just one source claims, but another interesting fact has hit the wires on Friday (and it’s probably not a coincidence this news was released on a day the stock markets were closed). The American economy did grow in the final quarter of last year, but according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, this did not coincide with an increase in the corporate profits. And that’s not something we should easily ignore, as the BEA said the adjusted pre-tax profit of the companies fell by 7.8% in the fourth quarter.

That could and should be seen as a huge disappointment, and this might indeed rattle the markets and ruin the over-excitement. This also emphasizes the point we have made almost eighteen months ago, in October 2014 (!).

‘Our message is that this can’t continue forever. The stock markets will have to face a reality check somed day as we are on a completely different point in the cycle compared to March 2009.[…] The proportion of the cash flow which is being used to buy back shares has almost doubled in the past decade whilst the capital expenditures have decreased. That’s a very dangerous situation as companies don’t only have to spoil their shareholders, they also need to think about the future and investing in new assets is an absolute necessity. ‘

And indeed. The next chart shows you the share buyback level has reached an alarmingly high level.

Buyback 1

Source: FactSet Research

But it gets worse. In excess of 30% of the companies is spending MORE on buybacks than they generated in free cash flow. This means that if you would try to pull up the numbers of companies whose share repurchases + dividend payments are higher than the amount of free cash flow.

Buyback 2

Source: ibidem

When the music stops, the impact might be enormous. A substantial part of these buybacks are funded by increasing the total amount of debt on the balance sheet, fueled by the low interest rate environment. Once the interest rates start to increase again, the cost of debt will become more expensive, and companies will have to focus on reducing the net debt again, rather than reducing the share count.

All signs are pointing towards an overbought general market, so be prepared for a correction.

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Could There Be A Coup In Turkey?

Submitted by Michael Rubin, orignially published at American Enterprise Institute

The situation in Turkey is bad and getting worse. It’s not just the deterioration in security amidst a wave of terrorism. Public debt might be stable, but private debt is out-of-control, the tourism sector is in free-fall, and the decline in the currency has impacted every citizen’s buying power. There is a broad sense, election results notwithstanding, that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is out-of-control. He is imprisoning opponents, seizing newspapers left and right, and building palaces at the rate of a mad sultan or aspiring caliph. In recent weeks, he has once again threatened to dissolve the constitutional court. Corruption is rife. His son Bilal reportedly fled Italy on a forged Saudi diplomatic passport as the Italian police closed in on him in an alleged money laundering scandal. His outbursts are raising eyebrows both in Turkey and abroad. Even members of his ruling party whisper about his increasing paranoia which, according to some Turkish officials, has gotten so bad that he seeks to install anti-aircraft missiles at his palace to prevent airborne men-in-black from targeting him in a snatch-and-grab operation.

Turks — and the Turkish military — increasingly recognize that Erdogan is taking Turkey to the precipice. By first bestowing legitimacy upon imprisoned Kurdish leader Abdullah Öcalan with renewed negotiations and then precipitating renewed conflict, he has taken Turkey down a path in which there is no chance of victory and a high chance of de facto partition. After all, if civil war renews as in the 1980s and early 1990s, Turkey’s Kurds will be hard-pressed to settle for anything less, all the more so given the precedent now established by their brethren in Iraq and Syria.

Erdogan long ago sought to kneecap the Turkish military. For the first decade of his rule, both the US government and European Union cheered him on. But that was before even Erdogan’s most ardent foreign apologists recognized the depth of his descent into madness and autocracy. So if the Turkish military moves to oust Erdogan and place his inner circle behind bars, could they get away with it?

In the realm of analysis rather than advocacy, the answer is yes. At this point in election season, it is doubtful that the Obama administration would do more than castigate any coup leaders, especially if they immediately laid out a clear path to the restoration of democracy. Nor would Erdo?an engender the type of sympathy that Egyptian President Muhammad Morsi did. When Morsi was ousted, his commitment to democracy was still subject to debate; that debate is now moot when it comes to the Turkish strongman. Neither the Republican nor Democratic frontrunners would put US prestige on the line to seek a return to the status quo ante; they might offer lip service against a coup, but they would work with the new regime.

Coup leaders might moot European and American human rights and civil society criticism and that of journalists by immediately freeing all detained journalists and academics and by returning seized newspapers and television stations to their rightful owners. Turkey’s NATO membership is no deterrent to action: Neither Turkey nor Greece lost their NATO membership after previous coups. Should a new leadership engage sincerely with Turkey’s Kurds, Kurds might come onboard. Neither European nor American public opinion would likely be sympathetic to the execution of Erdo?an, his son and son-in-law, or key aides like Egemen Ba??? and Cüneyd Zapsu, although they would accept a trial for corruption and long incarceration. Erdo?an might hope friends would rally to his side, but most of his friends — both internationally and inside Turkey — are attracted to his power. Once out of his palace, he may find himself very much alone, a shriveled and confused figure like Saddam Hussein at his own trial.

I make no predictions, but given rising discord in Turkey as well as the likelihood that the Turkish military would suffer no significant consequence should it imitate Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s game plan in Egypt, no one should be surprised if Turkey’s rocky politics soon get rockier.


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