Gold & Silver Are Soaring (again)

Gold has topped $1270 this morning as faith in Draghi falters, pushing back to one-month highs but once again it is silver that is grabbing the headlines, soaring above $17.50 and pushing to 11-month highs (now up 9 of the last 11 days). The buying started in China once again as hording continues but other catalysts include solar demand, central bank fragility, and gold-silver technicals.

Gold tops $1270 – one month highs…

 

But Silver is soaring…

 

Pushing silver to 11-month highs…

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Mario Draghi Explains Why QE ‘Will’ Work This Time – ECB Press Conference Live Feed

As expected today’s ECB statements were a snoozer, and likely Mario Draghi’s official statement will be too – “more of the same.” However, the real fun and games will come as he combats questions on 1) the lack of effectiveness of QE so far (just wait, any day now it will work), and 2) helicopter money (“whatever it takes”). He better offer some hope for moar as EUR is surging into the meeting…

We’re gonna need a bigger jawbone…

 

Live Feed…

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Silver Has So Much More to Give 5 Must See Charts

Silver “Has So Much More to Give” – 5 Must See Charts

Silver has so much more to give according to Bloomberg in an interesting article replete with 5 must see silver charts.

silver coins bars

From Bloomberg:

Silver’s bull run looks like it has legs.


The metal with the best return this year of any in the Bloomberg Commodity Index is poised for more gains, investors, traders and market data suggest.


“Silver has the best-looking chart among all the commodities,” said Andy Pfaff, who as chief investment officer for commodities at MitonOptimal Group in Cape Town increased his allocation to the metal over the past two weeks. “When silver moves, it really, really moves, and everyone wants to be on the right side of that trade.”

The metal is up more than 11 percent in the last two weeks after underperforming gold in the first quarter on concerns slow Chinese growth would curb demand in the biggest consumer of commodities. While both are precious metals, silver has more uses in manufacturing. Silver traded at $16.909 an ounce on Wednesday.


silver bullion_April2016

 

Following are charts that suggest the possibility of further gains. 

 The ratio of gold to silver prices fell to the lowest level since October on Wednesday after peaking in February at the highest since 2008. It will likely fall further, according to dealers such as brokerage GoldCore Ltd. in Dublin as reported by Bloomberg.

 

Read full Bloomberg article and see 5 charts here


Gold Prices (LBMA)
21 April: USD 1,257.65, EUR 1,113.21 and GBP 877.01 per ounce
20 April: USD 1,247.75, EUR 1,098.09 and GBP 867.45 per ounce
19 April: USD 1,241.70, EUR 1,095.18 and GBP 867.01 per ounce
18 April: USD 1,237.70, EUR 1,095.02 and GBP 872.45 per ounce
15 April: USD 1,229.75, EUR 1,092.16 and GBP 867.46 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)
21 April: USD 17.32, EUR 15.31 and GBP 12.05 per ounce
20 April: USD 16.97, EUR 14.93 and GBP 11.81 per ounce
19 April: USD 16.62, EUR 14.67 and GBP 11.57 per ounce
18 April: USD 16.20, EUR 14.33 and GBP 11.41 per ounce
15 April: USD 16.17, EUR 14.33 and GBP 11.40 per ounce

 

Gold News and Commentary

Silver ends at highest level since May; gold barely budges (Marketwatch)
Gold steadies as dollar firms; silver hits 11-month high (Reuters)
Silver Climbs to Highest Since May After Entering Bull Market (Bloomberg)
Chinese Gold Mining Giant Targets Overseas Buys as Demand Gains (Bloomberg)
Trader: Gold is about to break out—here’s why (CNBC)

Silver Prices May Be Ready to Shine (US News)
Silver is finally catching up to gold (Business Insider)
Why Are The Chinese Stockpiling Silver? Big Price Move Coming? (Gold Seek)
War on Savings: The Panama Papers, Bail-Ins, and the Push to Go Cashless (Ellen Brown)
Why One Analyst Believes Gold Could Hit $3,000 (Gold Seek)

Read More Here

 

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Additional Evidence Of Mind-Boggling Fraud Emerges from The New York Primary

Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

For the past week or so, I’ve been warning readers that the supposedly “liberal” state of New York has some of the most repressive voting laws in the country. Before reading the rest of this post, I suggest refreshing your memory on just how undemocratic New York is by checking out the following:

Published April 13th: Hillary Clinton Will Win New York, Because New York is Running a Banana Republic Primary

Published yesterday: As Expected, New York’s Primary is Already a Pathetic Mess

As such, two things were obvious going into the New York primary: 1) Hillary Clinton would win. 2) There would be an enormous amount of voter suppression and fraud.

Well the results are in, and the state of the state in New York is very, very bad.

The Daily Beast reports:

Alba Guerrero was dumbfounded. She’d arrived at her polling place in Ozone Park, Queens only to be told that she had been registered as a Republican since 2004.

 

That was news to her. She remembers registering to vote for the first time as a Democrat so she could vote for Barack Obama in the general election in 2008. When she recently moved from Manhattan to Ozone Park, in Queens, she re-registered at the DMV, she says, and even checked online on March 9th to be sure she was registered at her new address.

 

But when she showed up to vote for Bernie Sanders at PS63 on Tuesday, she says she was told she couldn’t. New York is a closed primary, where only registered Democrats can vote in the Democratic Primary—and voters had to be registered by last October. She was told—very politely, she wants to make clear—by poll workers to take it up with a judge. She was given a court order in nearby Forest Hills.

 

Guerrero drove to the Queens County Board of Elections and pled her case, but Judge Ira Margulis initially turned her away.

 

“The judge tells me, ‘No, that’s it—2004.’ He shows me, I’m registered as a Republican. He says there’s nothing we can do,” she said.

 

But on her way out she saw a Board of Elections worker holding something with her name on it. It was her 2004 voter registration, replete, she remembers, with her name, her social security number, her birthday—and someone else’s signature.

 

“I said, ‘Excuse me, that’s not my signature,’” she said. “It’s not my handwriting. It showed completely different signatures.”

Sure enough, the signatures are strikingly different. Next to a box checked “Republican,” her 2004 signature is written in clear, deliberate, legible cursive and includes her middle name. Her more recent signature is a loopy, illegible scrawl. She insists she’s never changed it in her life, and says she can produce old tax forms to prove it.

 

So Guerrero went back to to Judge Margulis and showed him the discrepancy.

 

“He allowed me to change for that day,“ she said.

 

Mayor Bill de Blasio, who tweeted at 11:50 a.m., “There’s nothing more punk rock than voting. #GetOutAndVote”, had to change his tune by the end of the day. WNYC reported this morning that 126,000 Brooklyn Democrats had been removed from the voting rolls since last fall.

What a fake liberal clown.

“It has been reported to us from voters and voting rights monitors that the voting lists in Brooklyn contain numerous errors, including the purging of entire buildings and blocks of voters from the voting lists,” he said in a statement released after 5 p.m. on Election Day. “I am calling on the Board of Election to reverse that purge and update the lists again using Central, not Brooklyn borough, Board of Election staff.”

 

A spokesperson for New York Attorney Eric Schneiderman told the New York Daily News that his office received “by far the largest volume of complaints we have received for an election since Attorney General Schneiderman took office in 2011.”

 

Some polling sites did not open on time, citing too few election workers. Others had faulty voting machines, or were delivered half the number of promised voting machines.

 

“I spent three hours this morning trying to vote,” he said. “I’m at a loss for words. I don’t understand that in the 21st century you have to stand in front of a judge to get to vote. It was laughable.”

 

Gershman was peeved by what happened to him, but he wonders what would’ve happened if he didn’t have a car, or the ability to miss a morning of work to fight for his ballot. And he’s also confounded by what happened to Guerrero’s voter registration form, which he shared on YouTube and calls “pretty clear fraud.”

 

Guerrero calls the whole incident “creepy.” She has “no idea” who might want to forge her signature on a voter registration form.

 

“It’s just disheartening. We’re supposed to be the number one country in the world, but things like this you’d imagine would happen in a second or third-world country,” she said. “What happened to me, basically, was fraud.”

Welcome to the real America, Alba Guerrero.

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Silver Has So Much More to Give 5 Charts Show

Silver “Has So Much More to Give” – 5 Charts Show

Silver has so much more to give according to Bloomberg in an interesting article replete with 5 must see silver charts.

 

silver coins bars

 

From Bloomberg:

Silver’s bull run looks like it has legs.


The metal with the best return this year of any in the Bloomberg Commodity Index is poised for more gains, investors, traders and market data suggest.


“Silver has the best-looking chart among all the commodities,” said Andy Pfaff, who as chief investment officer for commodities at MitonOptimal Group in Cape Town increased his allocation to the metal over the past two weeks. “When silver moves, it really, really moves, and everyone wants to be on the right side of that trade.”

The metal is up more than 11 percent in the last two weeks after underperforming gold in the first quarter on concerns slow Chinese growth would curb demand in the biggest consumer of commodities. While both are precious metals, silver has more uses in manufacturing. Silver traded at $16.909 an ounce on Wednesday.


silver bullion_April2016

 

 

Following are charts that suggest the possibility of further gains. 

The ratio of gold to silver prices fell to the lowest level since October on Wednesday after peaking in February at the highest since 2008. It will likely fall further, according to dealers such as brokerage GoldCore Ltd. in Dublin as reported by Bloomberg.

Read full Bloomberg article and see 5 charts here


Gold Prices (LBMA)
21 April: USD 1,257.65, EUR 1,113.21 and GBP 877.01 per ounce
20 April: USD 1,247.75, EUR 1,098.09 and GBP 867.45 per ounce
19 April: USD 1,241.70, EUR 1,095.18 and GBP 867.01 per ounce
18 April: USD 1,237.70, EUR 1,095.02 and GBP 872.45 per ounce
15 April: USD 1,229.75, EUR 1,092.16 and GBP 867.46 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)
21 April: USD 17.32, EUR 15.31 and GBP 12.05 per ounce
20 April: USD 16.97, EUR 14.93 and GBP 11.81 per ounce
19 April: USD 16.62, EUR 14.67 and GBP 11.57 per ounce
18 April: USD 16.20, EUR 14.33 and GBP 11.41 per ounce
15 April: USD 16.17, EUR 14.33 and GBP 11.40 per ounce

 

Gold News and Commentary

Silver ends at highest level since May; gold barely budges (Marketwatch)
Gold steadies as dollar firms; silver hits 11-month high (Reuters)
Silver Climbs to Highest Since May After Entering Bull Market (Bloomberg)
Chinese Gold Mining Giant Targets Overseas Buys as Demand Gains (Bloomberg)
Trader: Gold is about to break out—here’s why (CNBC)

Silver Prices May Be Ready to Shine (US News)
Silver is finally catching up to gold (Business Insider)
Why Are The Chinese Stockpiling Silver? Big Price Move Coming? (Gold Seek)
War on Savings: The Panama Papers, Bail-Ins, and the Push to Go Cashless (Ellen Brown)
Why One Analyst Believes Gold Could Hit $3,000 (Gold Seek)

Read More Here

 

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Don’t ‘Buy American!’: New at Reason

Mike Lindell, president of My Pillow Inc., seems like a nice guy. But he says something in his commercial that bothers Sheldon Richman: “Every part of my product is made in the USA.”

What could be wrong with that? Lots of things, writes Richman. First, his statement implies that buying only American-made parts is good not just for the particular Americans who make and sell those parts, but for all Americans—indeed for America as a whole. But that can’t be true.

Second, when Lindell touts his Buy-American policy, he seems to be suggesting that Americans are more worthy than non-Americans, writes Richman. But is human worth really determined by which side of an arbitrary national boundary one was born on?

View this article.

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ECB Keeps Rates Unchanged Says Corporate Bond Buying Has Begun

As was widely expected, moments ago the “sleepy” ECB announced that all its three key rates remain unchanged: “the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively.” There was one notably addition: the ECB announced it has “started to expand our monthly purchases under the asset purchase programme to €80 billion” as was also expected considering the tremendous rip in European corporate bonds.

Full statement:

At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively.

 

Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, we have started to expand our monthly purchases under the asset purchase programme to €80 billion. The focus is now on the implementation of the additional non-standard measures decided on 10 March 2016. Further information on the implementation aspects of the corporate sector purchase programme will be released after the press conference on the ECB’s website.

 

The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 14:30 CET today.

For Draghi’s presser, check back in 45 minutes.

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Frontrunning: April 21

  • World stocks gain along with oil, clock ticks down to ECB (Reuters)
  • Draghi Expected to Defend ECB in Face of German Criticism (WSJ)
  • Trump, Cruz, Kasich seek to win over Republican leaders at party meeting (Reuters)
  • Donald Trump Plans to Adopt More-Traditional Campaign Tactics (WSJ)
  • Japan, Not Germany, Leads World in Negative-Yield Bonds (BBG)
  • Obama starts talks with Gulf leaders aimed at easing strains (Reuters)
  • Soros: China Looks Like the US Before the Crisis (BBG)
  • OPEC Secretary-General Says Cartel May Discuss Oil Freeze at June Meeting (WSJ)
  • Obama’s Brexit Intervention Makes Waves in U.K., Ripples in U.S. (BBG)
  • Public Support For TTIP Plunges in US and Germany (Reuters)
  • Uber Overtakes Rental Cars Among Business Travelers (BBG)
  • VW To Offer To Buy Back Nearly 500,000 US Diesel Cars  (Reuters)
  • Mitsubishi Motors shares slump to record low on mileage cheating scandal (Reuters)
  • China’s ‘Zombie’ Steel Mills Fire Up Furnaces, Worsen Global Glut (Reuters)
  • EU States Grow Wary As Turkey Presses For Action On Visas Pledge (FT)
  • Novartis Profit Falls as Blockbuster Cancer Drug Sales Drop (BBG)
  • Greece ‘Could Leave Eurozone’ On Brexit Vote (Telegraph)
  • Marissa Mayer has only one last job to do at Yahoo (Reuters)
  • China Wants Ships To Use Faster Arctic Route Opened By Global Warming (Reuters)
  • Hungary Threatens Rebellion Against Brussels Over Forced Migration  (Express)
  • The Secret Shame of Middle-Class Americans (Atlantic)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

– Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump, after notching a big win in New York, is planning to roll out significant changes in his campaign, including giving a policy speech on foreign affairs, using teleprompters and a speech writer, and doing more outreach to Washington Republican leaders. (http://on.wsj.com/1QoFUpJ)

– U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew said he would put abolitionist Harriet Tubman on the $20 bill, bowing to public pressure after his initial proposal to put a woman on the $10 bill appeared to misfire. (http://on.wsj.com/1QoFRtX)

– European Union competition authorities unveiled a second set of charges against Google, this time over its Android operating system, contrasting with U.S. regulators who have so far found that Google’s conduct raises no antitrust concerns. (http://on.wsj.com/1QoFOhE)

– Wal Mart Stores Inc is bringing in the next generation of Walton family members to its board, nominating Steuart Walton, grandson of founder Sam Walton. (http://on.wsj.com/1QoFM9w)

 

FT

– A Deutsche Bank AG shareholder has requested a special audit of whether members of the bank’s supervisory board or management board breached obligations in dealing with a few of the bank’s legal entanglements. (http://bit.ly/1U6Sj8l)

– GP practices will be given an additional 2.4 billion pounds ($3.44 billion) a year to cope with older population and to decrease pressure on hospitals. Chief Executive of NHS England Simon Stevens is to announce the extra funding on Thursday. (http://bit.ly/1U6SikW)

– Worldpay Plc is launching a pay-as-you-go service for smaller businesses taking card payments, which is a part of the payment group’s plans to expand in the UK. (http://bit.ly/1U6Shxj)

– Conforama, a Steinhoff International Holdings subsidiary, acquired 19.5 percent of Darty Plc and sweetened its offer for the remaining shares to 138 pence per share. (http://bit.ly/1U6ShgT)

 

NYT

– Google Inc long stressed that Android, its popular mobile software, is open for anyone to use, including its rivals. But the company’s claims are now under threat after Europe’s antitrust authorities on Wednesday charged the company with unfairly using Android to promote its own services – like mobile search – over those of its rivals. (http://nyti.ms/1T0I5Sh)

– In a major victory for the Russian government, a Dutch court on Wednesday overturned an award of more than $50 billion to former shareholders of the defunct oil company Yukos that Moscow was ordered to pay in 2014. (http://nyti.ms/1QoNqRe)

– In the latest scandal to hit the automobile industry, Mitsubishi Motors Corp said on Wednesday that it had cheated on fuel-economy tests for an ultrasmall car it produces in Japan. The company acknowledged that its engineers had intentionally manipulated evaluations. (http://nyti.ms/1SuUccT)

– Credit Suisse Group AG has hired Henrik Aslaksen, a former top banker at Deutsche Bank AG, as the Swiss bank continues to reshape its investment banking business. (http://nyti.ms/1T0Hpw3)

– Barclays Plc announced on Wednesday that a veteran of its Barclaycard business would be the permanent head of its credit card and payment operations. Amer Sajed, who joined Barclays from Citigroup in 2006, becomes chief executive of the Barclaycard business immediately, the British bank said. (http://nyti.ms/20Zjjrr)

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** The trickle of complaints about Netflix Inc’s renewed effort to stop Canadians from circumventing its geographic content restrictions has turned into a steady stream of outrage as the Californian company’s technological crackdown begins to bite more users globally. (http://bit.ly/1NCPCVD)

** Multilateral talks are ongoing between the British Columbia and Alberta governments centering on a deal that would see one help facilitate the construction of an oil pipeline to the West Coast in exchange for a long-term contract to buy electricity. (http://bit.ly/1NCQgCx)

** The Canadian government abandoned an appeal of a controversial court ruling that let the Catholic Church out of its responsibility to raise millions of dollars for aboriginal healing programs, court documents show. (http://bit.ly/1NCQrOb)

NATIONAL POST

** Health Canada is studying the possibility of forcing companies to make their cigarettes less addictive, a controversial anti-smoking strategy that no other country has implemented. (http://bit.ly/1NCQFF3)

** Some of the Canadian military’s top equipment programs already underway – including projects to buy maritime helicopters and Arctic patrol vessels – will have their funding delayed as the defense department tries to deal with the Liberal government’s first budget. (http://bit.ly/1NCRQnR)

 

Britain

The Times

* Millions of patients will be seen by pharmacists, therapists and medical assistants instead of GPs in an effort to save the NHS from collapse. Simon Stevens, head of NHS England, warns that the health service will fail without a 2.4 billion pounds rescue package for the “fraying” GP system. (http://bit.ly/1VGkfRB)

* The owners of offshore companies holding 170 billion pounds in British property are set to be unmasked in a crackdown on money laundering and tax evasion. David Cameron is expected to announce plans to lift the veil on anonymous shell companies that buy huge swathes of British real estate. http://bit.ly/1T0lVQ6)

The Guardian

* Sir Terry Matthews, the first Welsh billionaire, is backing a proposed management buyout of Tata Steel UK, boosting hopes of a rescue deal for the Port Talbot steelworks and thousands of employees. Matthews is helping to put together a consortium of public and private sector figures from south Wales who can support the buyout. (http://bit.ly/1QnpvBV)

* British Gas is to axe almost 700 jobs and close its West Midlands office in Oldbury, just two months after its residential supply arm reported a 31 percent increase in profits to over 570 million pounds. The 684 staff are employed by British Gas services in call centre and back room office work supporting the company’s engineers who attend call-outs and mend boilers. (http://bit.ly/1pgvEJX)

The Telegraph

* Google has been formally charged with monopoly abuse over an alleged effort to crush rivals to its mobile search service and Android smartphone operating system, in a major escalation of its battle with Brussels. (http://bit.ly/1XIkeL4)

* Greece could crash out of the eurozone as early as this summer if Britons vote to leave the European Union in the upcoming referendum, economists have predicted. The uncertainty following a “yes” vote to Britain leaving the EU would put unsustainable pressure on Greece’s cash-strapped economy at a time when it is also struggling to cope with an influx of migrants escaping turmoil in the Middle East and Africa, according to a report from the Economist Intelligence Unit. (http://bit.ly/20YPNC5)

Sky News

* A group of top city executives has slammed boardroom pay practices as “broken” and “not fit for purpose”, demanding an urgent overhaul to restore public confidence in British business. Sky News has learnt that a panel set up to explore ways of simplifying executive remuneration will publish on Thursday a series of proposals aimed at increasing transparency and directors’ accountability. (http://bit.ly/1STYVBJ)

* Japanese carmaker Mitsubishi Motors Corp has admitted manipulating fuel economy tests on some of its own brand and Nissan cars to make the results more favourable. (http://bit.ly/1WGor3i)

The Independent

* Barack Obama has been urged to use his visit to Saudi Arabia to rule out selling controversial cluster bombs to the kingdom amid mounting evidence they have been used against civilians in Yemen. (http://ind.pn/20YR6kF)

* Shareholders in the collapsed Yukos oil company established by jailed Russian oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky have lost a key court battle in their demand for $50 billion compensation from the Russian government. (http://ind.pn/26fP6Z8)

 

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Sweden’s Riksbank Unexpectedly Boosts QE To Weaken Currency; Krona Jumps

In a surprise move, earlier today Sweden’s Riksbank announced that it would expand the country’s QE program by another 45 billion kroner – consensus was for no increase – while keeping its rate at the already record negative -0.50%. “With continued expansionary monetary policy abroad, there is a risk that the krona will appreciate earlier and faster than in the forecast,” the Riksbank said. 

Even more surprising was the currency reaction: instead of weakening the SEK, the currency strengthened and initially traded as much as 0.8 percent higher against the euro, but gains were pared to 0.3 percent as of 11:26 a.m. in Stockholm. The move was another indication of just how inverted cause and effect relationships have become in a world in which traders try to front and in this case back-run central bank announcements.

The extra purchases will add to an existing 200 billion-krona QE program targeting about one-third of Sweden’s nominal government bonds by the end of June. Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves has resorted to unprecedented stimulus as the bank has failed to reach its 2 percent inflation target for about half a decade. But policy makers are torn over how best to deploy their toolbox as the property market overheats.

This is what the Riksbank said:

The Riksbank’s monetary policy has contributed to stronger economic activity and rising inflation. But although inflation is rising, the upturn is fitful. At the same time, there is still uncertainty over global developments and monetary policy abroad is very expansionary. To safeguard the rising trend in inflation, monetary policy in Sweden needs to continue to be expansionary. The Executive Board has decided to purchase government bonds for a further SEK 45 billion during the second half of 2016. This will reduce the risk of the krona appreciating faster than in the forecast and of a break in the upturn in inflation. The purchases cover both nominal and real government bonds, corresponding to SEK 30 and SEK 15 billion, respectively. The repo rate is at the same time held unchanged at -0.50 per cent. There is still a high level of preparedness to make monetary policy even more expansionary if this is needed to safeguard the inflation target.

Apparently the market did not agree with the Riksbank’s assessment, and as a result of the surprising strengthening in the SEK, The krona remains the strongest performer, besides the yen, of the 10 currencies tracked in Bloomberg Correlation Weighted Indexes over the past year.

As Bloomberg noted, “Sweden’s Riksbank just put its monetary policy cards on the table in the hope that the European Central Bank won’t blow its best intentions to smithereens.

Swedish policy makers delivered a little more stimulus and made a few predictions about the future. But ultimately, all they can do now is hope ECB President Mario Draghi doesn’t upend everything for those outside the euro zone struggling to protect their currencies.

 

What the Riksbank does next “depends to a large extent on the ECB,” said Knut Hallberg, an analyst at Swedbank. “If they breathe a word of being prepared to do more, then the pressure on the Riksbank will rise again.”

Andreas Wallstroem, an economist at Nordea Bank AB, said his “main scenario is that we will see no additional easing measures from the Riksbank in this cycle.” Nordea forecasts the first rate increase will come in the second quarter of next year. “However, as we don’t see that inflation will rise to the 2 percent target within the forecast horizon, further easing measures cannot be ruled out.”

“The pressure could mount already this afternoon should the krona strengthen on the back of the ECB decision,” he said. The Frankfurt-based bank is due to publish its rate decision later today, with economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicting no change.

As Bloomberg adds, Sweden is enjoying an economic boom with growth rates in excess of 4 percent. A number of analysts have questioned what impact more easing will have on an economy steaming ahead at such a pace.

The Riksbank is “caught between a domestic economy that is booming while uncertainty in the rest of the world and the financial markets will continue to exert pressure on the Swedish krona and inflation,” said Joergen Kennemar, an economist at Swedbank. “In particular, the more expansive stance of the ECB, but also the Fed, could force the Riksbank to reverse its course of a scale-back monetary policy. Thus, if the ECB and the Fed prevail, the pressure will again arise late this year or early next year.”

Then again, perhaps there is a reason for the stronger SEK response: as Danske Bank notes, perhaps the Riksbank has introduced a mini taper:

Finally, here was Goldman’s take:

  • Contrary to our expectations, the Riksbank has extended the QE program by a further SEK45bn during the second half of 2016 (SEK30bn of nominal government bonds and SEK15bn of real government bonds).
  • Given the economic and inflation outlook, we had expected the Riksbank to tolerate a weaker currency (up to EUR/SEK 9.10-9.05) and to refrain from taking any action at this stage. However, the Riksbank’s announcement today shows that the threshold for a faster appreciation of the currency is lower.
  • The initial market reaction has seen the SEK appreciate, contrary to what the Riksbank had hoped to achieve.
  • The only possible explanation for this, beyond positioning, is that the market thinks the central bank is now running out of bullets in its attempt to control the pace of SEK appreciation.
  • The Riksbank has shown that it continues to be worried about the pace of appreciation. As we have written elsewhere, we do not rule out that the central bank could cut rates further or even engage in opportunistic interventions in the currency market. So, at these levels, tactically we do not see much value in going long the currency. That said, the trend is for the SEK to appreciate, and we would therefore see any depreciation as a window of opportunity to take the other side.

The move may be accentuated depending on what the ECB announces in just over half an hour.

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Dont Scrap the Iran Deal: New at Reason

DiplomacyTo most Republicans, the three scariest words in the English language, after “Ruth Bader Ginsburg,” are “Iran nuclear deal.” The GOP presidential candidates are so intent on putting distance between them and it that you’d think the document was printed on radioactive paper. 

“My No. 1 priority is to dismantle the disastrous deal with Iran,” Donald Trump says. Ted Cruz promises, “On my first day in office, I will rip this catastrophic Iranian nuclear deal to shreds.” Even John Kasich vows to “suspend” the agreement and bring back the sanctions that were dropped. Steve Chapman explains why these are bad ideas.

View this article.

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