Obama Admits He's Dragging Democrats Down

President ObamaConceding that, perhaps, a bit
of the gloss has come off his presidency, President Barack Obama is
telling congressional Democrats to run, run as fast as they can
away from him as they seek to survive his rein of error.

From U.S. News & World Report‘s
Kenneth T. Walsh
:

President Obama has delivered a humbling message to fellow
Democrats: He admits he is unpopular in much of the country and
will understand if legislators don’t want to appear with him on the
campaign trail.

Obama made the remarks in a private session with Senate
Democrats Wednesday.  “He said he knew he is not popular in
some of the states so he would not be offended if he were not
invited to visit them this year,” a senator told the Washington
Post. “But he said he could be helpful in some parts of some
states.” The senator requested anonymity in order to discuss the
private meeting candidly.

Unpopular is right. Gallup says that
50 percent of Americans disapprove
of the president’s
performance in office, while only 41 percent approve (his numbers
were
even worse
a few months ago). CNN/ORC also has
disapproval
at 50 percent
. The RealClearPolitics
average of polls
stands at 51.8 percent disapproval and 43
percent approval—a precipitous fall from the heady days when
President Obama was first elected and Americans were hopeful that
he might not suck at the job. Now, even though most Americans tell
CNN/ORC that they wish the president the best, 56 percent think
that his policies will ultimately fail.

The “will” before “fail” presumably refers to those policies
that haven’t already failed.

As a result, generic congressional preference polls, as little
as they’re worth,
currently give the edge to Republicans
.

Presidents often prove to be deadweight on their parties, once
reality sets in—Barack Obama isn’t unique in this regard. George W.
Bush lost most of his luster by this point in his presidency, too.
Americans (and voters elsewhere, for that matter) have developed a
nasty habit of investing their elected officials with massive
power—but impossible expectations. The combination is a guaranteed
recipe for both disappointment and abuse.

Lots of both, really.

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Gamblernomics

By Chris Andrew and Mustafa Zaidi at Clarmond

Gamblernomics

The concept of continuously doubling down in order to achieve financial and economic goals is now a respectable and established norm. Takahashi’s Wager of 1930s Japan shows that such a policy, while initially successful, can remove all sensible restraints

For a gambler on a losing streak the classic trap is to borrow money, trying to break even. Doubling down, time and time again, becomes routine as all caution is discarded; this does not make for sound financial planning.
 
In ‘Resurrecting Reflation’ (November 2012) we highlighted when this policy was first attempted; in 1931 Finance Minister of Japan, Takahashi Korekiyo, paid for Japan’s invasion of Manchuria whilst countering the collapse of capitalism around Japan with unorthodox measures of massive QE and deficit spending. These twin policies were heralded as a great success 70 years later by Governor Ben Bernanke and a decade after that by Prime Minister Abe.

‘Takahashi’s Wager’ led to a tripling of the Japanese stock market, a 40% currency devaluation and warfare spending that rose from 30% to 70% of the national budget. Having taken the gamble to reflate, the octogenarian established the principle that capital is costless and unlimited; doubling down had become routine.

This band-aid boom ended in a calamitous collapse years later; by then Takahashi was long gone…literally, as he had belatedly tried to slow the handout-hooked warfare train. In 1937 another ‘routine’ incident occurred at the Marco Polo Bridge, which gave Japan the excuse to invade the rest of China. This was, in effect another ‘doubling down’, but by this time Japanese economic statistics had plateaued, war casualties had hit a 100,000 and warfare spending comprised nearly the entire government budget. But the unorthodox ‘policy genie’ was out of the bottle, as Takahashi had demonstrated, one could double down again and again, as the goalposts for success were simply moved and all gambles appeared sane.   

Loaded Dice

Modern day Japan finds itself in a similar predicament, but instead of warfare the Japanese leadership is confronting the dual burdens of welfare spending and interest payments, which, at current interest rates, now account for 60% of the budget.

The Bank of Japan’s unconventional policy of massive QE, which is nearly 18% of GDP, is intended to ignite inflation and break the twenty-year deflationary cycle. This scheme, put in place by the current Prime Minister, has been dubbed ‘Abenomics’. Given zero interest rates for last 15 years, and the occasional bout of QE, ‘Abenomics’ is another ‘doubling down’ but, this time, it has staked everything on this one final throw of the financial dice. Perhaps ‘Gamblernomics’ may be a more reasonable nomenclature.

On the surface ‘Gamblernomics’, like the ‘Takahashi Wager’, appears successful – the equity market has risen substantially, the currency has fallen, and government bond yields remain low. So far, so good.
 
How is the government gauging the success of this dice roll? They are looking for two percent inflation, a positive growth number, and have committed to two years of massive QE to achieve these goals. As time passes and these targets are not met, the policy makers will double down again, by which point interest payments and welfare spending are likely to comprise most of the budget. Emergency shall have become routine and all further gambles shall appear sane.

Lessons

All gamblers are aware of their accumulated losses, in economic parlance this means their ‘sunk costs.’  Today’s adherents of ‘Gamblernomics’ are not only found in Tokyo, but also reign in all major financial capitals, each playing their own version of a similar wager. All believe that doubling down is a sober strategy given the sunk costs of lost growth.  As a new generation of gamblers sit at the table, ghosts of gamblers past whisper – “Place your bets.” 


    



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Damon Root on Lessons from Kelo, the Eminent Domain Case That Wiped Out a Neighborhood

The latest issue of The Weekly Standard
describes the Supreme Court’s 2005 eminent domain ruling in
Kelo v. City of New London as “a tragedy with all the
classical Greek elements: hubris, turn of fortune, cathartic
downfall, and possibly the ‘learning through suffering’ that
Aristotle in his Poetics argued was the point of tragic
drama.” That is certainly a plausible interpretation of the case,
argues Reason Senior Editor Damon Root. But unfortunately,
Root adds, there’s at least one major player in this tragedy who
has yet to show any signs of learning his lesson from the suffering
he caused. That person is Justice John Paul Stevens, whose majority
opinion allowed the forced condemnations to proceed.

View this article.

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“Fuck The EU” – US State Department Blasts Europe; Revealed As Alleged Mastermind Behind Ukraine Unrest

A leaked recording of a telephone conversation allegedly between US assistant secretary of state Victoria Nuland and the US envoy to the Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt discussing who should be in Ukraine's next government has, according to The FT, threatened to fuel east-west tensions over the troubled nation's future. In apparent frustration with the EU – which has failed to join the US in threatening sanctions against Ukraine’s leaders if they violently crush the protests – the voice resembling Ms Nuland at one point exclaims "Fuck the EU". As the two US diplomats decide whether "Klitsch" or "Yats" should be 'in' or 'out', listeners will be reminded (uncomfortably) that the governments of Ukraine and Russia previously alleged that the protests are being funded and orchestrated by the US. The authenticity of the recording has not been confirmed (though comparisons to Nuland's recent media appearances provide some confidence).

 

The controversial alleged Nuland "Fuck The EU" clip… (the discussion of the EU and UN involvement begins around 2:50)

 

And for comparison's sake – Nuland last month delivering a statement on the situation in Ukraine…

Via The FT,

 

In a clip posted on YouTube, voices resembling those of Victoria Nuland, a US assistant secretary of state, and Geoffrey Pyatt, ambassador to Ukraine, are heard talking by telephone about how to resolve the stand-off in Kiev after two months of anti-government protests.

 

In apparent frustration with the EU – which has failed to join the US in threatening sanctions against Ukraine’s leaders if they violently crush the protests – the voice resembling Ms Nuland at one point exclaims “F**k the EU”.

 

 

The two voices suggest Arseny Yatseniuk, the opposition leader and a former foreign minister, should be in a new government in Kiev. But Vitali Klitschko, a former heavyweight boxer and identified as “top dog” among opposition leaders, is also described as inexperienced and needing to “do his political homework”.

 

The voice resembling Ms Nuland refers to the two men as “Yats” and “Klitsch”.

 

 

It could also bolster a propaganda campaign by the governments of Ukraine and Russia alleging that the protests that erupted against Ukraine’s President Viktor Yanukovich last November are being funded and orchestrated by the US.

As we warned previously, after the Olympics, Ukraine becomes a very hot spot indeed

The Western powers represented by the EU and the US have nothing to stand on to protect Ukraine and can only offer lip-service at best. So once again, it appears that Ukraine is doomed and the best one can hope for there, is that Russia will allow the West to leave. The countdown goes forward and the political and economic crisis is indicative of what we see with the first shot across the bow in the rising trend of the Cycle of War.


    



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"Fuck The EU" – US State Department Blasts Europe; Revealed As Alleged Mastermind Behind Ukraine Unrest

A leaked recording of a telephone conversation allegedly between US assistant secretary of state Victoria Nuland and the US envoy to the Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt discussing who should be in Ukraine's next government has, according to The FT, threatened to fuel east-west tensions over the troubled nation's future. In apparent frustration with the EU – which has failed to join the US in threatening sanctions against Ukraine’s leaders if they violently crush the protests – the voice resembling Ms Nuland at one point exclaims "Fuck the EU". As the two US diplomats decide whether "Klitsch" or "Yats" should be 'in' or 'out', listeners will be reminded (uncomfortably) that the governments of Ukraine and Russia previously alleged that the protests are being funded and orchestrated by the US. The authenticity of the recording has not been confirmed (though comparisons to Nuland's recent media appearances provide some confidence).

 

The controversial alleged Nuland "Fuck The EU" clip… (the discussion of the EU and UN involvement begins around 2:50)

 

And for comparison's sake – Nuland last month delivering a statement on the situation in Ukraine…

Via The FT,

 

In a clip posted on YouTube, voices resembling those of Victoria Nuland, a US assistant secretary of state, and Geoffrey Pyatt, ambassador to Ukraine, are heard talking by telephone about how to resolve the stand-off in Kiev after two months of anti-government protests.

 

In apparent frustration with the EU – which has failed to join the US in threatening sanctions against Ukraine’s leaders if they violently crush the protests – the voice resembling Ms Nuland at one point exclaims “F**k the EU”.

 

 

The two voices suggest Arseny Yatseniuk, the opposition leader and a former foreign minister, should be in a new government in Kiev. But Vitali Klitschko, a former heavyweight boxer and identified as “top dog” among opposition leaders, is also described as inexperienced and needing to “do his political homework”.

 

The voice resembling Ms Nuland refers to the two men as “Yats” and “Klitsch”.

 

 

It could also bolster a propaganda campaign by the governments of Ukraine and Russia alleging that the protests that erupted against Ukraine’s President Viktor Yanukovich last November are being funded and orchestrated by the US.

As we warned previously, after the Olympics, Ukraine becomes a very hot spot indeed

The Western powers represented by the EU and the US have nothing to stand on to protect Ukraine and can only offer lip-service at best. So once again, it appears that Ukraine is doomed and the best one can hope for there, is that Russia will allow the West to leave. The countdown goes forward and the political and economic crisis is indicative of what we see with the first shot across the bow in the rising trend of the Cycle of War.


    



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What Wage Inflation? Unit Labor Costs Have Biggest Annual Drop Since 2010

Less than a year ago, David Rosenberg fundamentally shifted his thesis from deflationary to stagflationary at first, and then to outright inflationary, aka from bearish to bullish, based on one simple thesis: labor costs, and thus wage inflation – that all important harbinger of broad economic inflation – have nowhere to go but up. Unfortunately, they also have another direction they can go: down.

As today’s “Productivity and Costs” report from the BLS confirmed what many already know, namely those who collect a regular wage, wages are not going up. In fact, in the fourth quarter, unit labor costs plunged by 1.3%, the most since the second quarter of 2010, and prove that not only is the Fed’s QE not being “trickled down” into wages, but that anyone who bet on a simple reflation thesis (not to be confused with the runaway inflation that would result from unlimited currency debasement which as everyone knows is the Fed’s Plan Z) based on an expectation that wages will revert to the mean, has been proven wrong.

 

And a more amusing correlation – relative to GDP.

As for where the offsetting surge in productivity is coming from in a workforce addicted to social media and other constant distractions: perhaps that is the true $64K “New Normal” question which the central planners should be answering.


    



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Chris Christie Pledges to “Take a Close Look At” Bill Giving Eminent Domain Powers to Universities, Forgetting That He Already Signed It

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie answers the voters’
questions:

Fine. If it crosses my desk AGAIN, I promise to look at it. Happy now?Asked Monday about a measure
giving eminent domain powers to a new Rutgers-Camden and Rowan
University joint board of governors, Gov. Christie said he was
unaware of such a proposal.

“If a bill like that comes to my desk, I’ll have to take a close
look at it,” Christie said, fielding a call from a listener on NJ
101.5’s Ask the Governor radio program. “I haven’t heard
anything at this point about eminent domain being given to a
university—I don’t think that’s the way it works.”

However, Christie signed the bill into law last month.

To read the whole article—including the part where Christie
pledges that the bill he already signed will “get a thorough
vetting by the counsel’s office, and they’ll give me advice about
whether they think it’s appropriate for me to sign or not”—go

here
.

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Chris Christie Pledges to "Take a Close Look At" Bill Giving Eminent Domain Powers to Universities, Forgetting That He Already Signed It

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie answers the voters’
questions:

Fine. If it crosses my desk AGAIN, I promise to look at it. Happy now?Asked Monday about a measure
giving eminent domain powers to a new Rutgers-Camden and Rowan
University joint board of governors, Gov. Christie said he was
unaware of such a proposal.

“If a bill like that comes to my desk, I’ll have to take a close
look at it,” Christie said, fielding a call from a listener on NJ
101.5’s Ask the Governor radio program. “I haven’t heard
anything at this point about eminent domain being given to a
university—I don’t think that’s the way it works.”

However, Christie signed the bill into law last month.

To read the whole article—including the part where Christie
pledges that the bill he already signed will “get a thorough
vetting by the counsel’s office, and they’ll give me advice about
whether they think it’s appropriate for me to sign or not”—go

here
.

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An Open Letter to Sam Zell: Why Your Statements are Delusional and Dangerous

The 1 percent are being pummeled because it’s politically convenient to do so. The problem is that the world and this country should not talk about envy of the 1 percent. It should talk about emulating the 1 percent. The 1 percent work harder. The 1 percent are much bigger factors in all forms of our society.

– Sam Zell yesterday on Bloomberg Television

Mr. Zell,
I’ve seen clips of you on television several times in the past. I can’t say those appearances elicited strong reactions from me. I can recall being offended at things you have said, and I can remember agreeing with you on other occasions. However, yesterday I found your statements on “class warfare,” “envy” and the “1%” delusional and dangerous. I will address these two points separately.

Why Your Statements Are Delusional

Individuals, social classes, even cultures and nation-states develop storylines and so-called “myths” about themselves and how they fit into the bigger picture of current events and human history. We all see ourselves and whatever group(s) with which we identify within a particular social, political and economic context. This is obvious, yet it is much more difficult to look at your owns myths and question them. It is far easier to look at other groups’ myths and heap criticism on them. That is basically all you do.

For the purpose of this letter, I will focus on socio-economic groups that people are now using in these contemporary United States. Ever since Occupy Wall Street popularized the terms, many people have divided themselves into two overly-simplistic groups, the so-called 99% and the 1%. However, this isn’t the real struggle. I was always against the 1% label, because the true cancer, the true problem comes from a much smaller slice of the population. It comes from what I call the “oligarchs,” the 0.01%, and the politicians that do their bidding. This is your class Mr. Zell, so let’s get that straight right off the bat. That doesn’t mean everyone in the 0.01% should be vilified. I am certain there are many well meaning, decent and honestly good people in that bucket. Nevertheless, what the past five years have proven without a shadow of a doubt is that this class collectively represents the most destructive, delusional and counter-productive members of our society.

Your statements on Bloomberg yesterday prove my point exactly. Let’s start with the most offensive and asinine statement. You said:  

The problem is that the world and this country should not talk about envy of the 1 percent. It should talk about emulating the 1 percent. The 1 percent work harder.

First of all you talk of envy. Now without a doubt, there is a significant portion of the so-called 99% that would want nothing more than to have the riches and the power of the 1%, but certainly not all of them, or even necessarily the majority. In my life I have had various experiences and met a lot of people. I lived most of my life in Manhattan and the last three years in Boulder, Colorado. What defines Manhattan more than anything else is that it is a money-chasing place. People who live there are generally obsessed with money as well as materialism, and want as much as they can get in the shortest period of time. People in Colorado are not this way. When I lived in NYC, almost every conversation I overheard would consist of how to make more money or get a bigger bonus. In three years in Colorado, I cannot recall a ever hearing a similar conversation. Of course this is an over-generalization, but there is certainly truth to it.

It’s fine to want to make money, and it’s also fine to just want to be comfortable, content and fulfilled in what you do. I’m not making a judgement call here. What I am saying is that people like you, who are constantly surrounded by people that think just like you, people who obsess 24/7 about how to make more money on money, you think that everyone thinks just like you. Sorry to break it to you, they don’t.

So this is where your delusional begins. You think everyone that has issues with you oligarchs and how the 0.01% is destroying our economy and society is simply envious because you assume they think like you do. Certainly, if you were poor you would be envious of the the rich. You’ve made that clear. However, that is not the primary motivation of the anger and resentment swelling up from the underclasses.

I will use myself as an example. I worked on Wall Street from the moment I graduated Duke University. By the time I was in my mid-20s my career was taking off. I was well into the “1%” by my late-20s and if I had continued along that path, who knows maybe one day I could’ve been an oligarch like you. If you were me, you would have continued to pound the pavement of the world’s financial centers to one day become a “master of the universe.” But I don’t want to be you Sam Zell. I voluntarily took myself off that career path, at the very top of my game because I became so disillusioned by the monetary and financial system after the crisis and the bailout of the crooks (your socio-economic class) that caused it. I’m not trying to portray myself as special or some sort of a hero. I am just making the point that from your point of view my choice was completely irrational, and probably one you could never comprehend. Yet there are plenty of people like me out there and you don’t seem to understand this because your entire worldview revolves around wealth.

Your misdiagnosis of the root cause of the current dissent in America is a result of your obliviousness to the actual concerns of the 99%. A group about with you speak with such certainty, yet certainly know almost nothing about. In fact, my website is dedicated to highlighting all of the destructive trends happening in this nation today. From record high food stamp participation, to declining real wages and the reality that young people need to take on so much debt they become indentured serfs from the moment they enter the workforce. From a loss of 4th Amendment rights due to illegal NSA spying, to the militarization of the police force. From oligarch immunity from serious financial crimes that average citizens would be thrown in jail for life for, to trillion dollar bailouts with zero strings attached for the financial community. From the over-prosecution of some of our bravest citizens such as Aaron Swartz, Barrett Brown and Private Manning to a fraudulent two-party sham political system entirely controlled by your socio-economic class.

While I agree that President Obama talks in simplistic, imbecilic “class warfare” terms, what does he do in reality. He is the most oligarch-coddling President this nation has ever seen. Talk is cheap Zell. I only listed a few of the root problems causing dissents in the country. They are very real, they are not going away and as long as oligarchs like you pretend they don’t exist and this is all the result of “envy” nothing will get better. In fact, it will get much, much worse. I see no envy. I see a populace waking up to a gigantic fucking fraud, full of below average cronies thieving and people getting pissed about it. I see a 0.01% class of oligarchs to which the free market and the rule of law do not apply. So I’m not sure what exactly the 99% is supposed to be emulating. Your unaccountable criminality?

Of course I couldn’t end this section without calling you out on the most absurd thing you said: “The 1 percent work harder.”

Where to begin…First of all, I’d like some hard data to back up this statement. You complain about class warfare and then hypocritically say something like that? How is that not class warfare. You, a billionaire, come on television and tell 320 million people that the reason they feel disillusioned and agitated is because they are lazy. If that’s not class warfare I don’t know what is.

But let’s take this a step further. Let’s assume that the average person in the 1% works harder than the average person in the 99%. This reality still means that there are likely millions, if not tens of millions of above average workers within the 99% that work considerably harder than the average 1% person. Even if you don’t accept my numbers, you can’t deny there would still be hundreds of thousands that fall into that bucket. So what do you have to say to them? Furthermore, where does your expertise on the work ethic on the 99% come from? I highly doubt you spend much time hanging around them.

Why Your Statements Are Destructive
There is genuine dissent in America and it would behoove you to actually try to understand it, rather than assuming it is represented by inane political rhetoric from Barrack Obama. In case you hadn’t noticed, Obama isn’t popular. Neither are Democrats and Republicans. In fact, a recent Gallup Poll showed that 42% of Americans identify as Independent, versus 31% as Democrats and 25% as Republicans. This is the highest “Independent” identification on record. People know something is very wrong, they know the system is broken.

Generally speaking, the dissent from both the “progressive” side and the “libertarian” side overlaps on many issues. Issues that you seems to be oblivious to. These are:

1) Opposition to Wall Street bailouts, the concept of TBTF and the growth of crony capitalism generally.
2) The fact that the “rule of law” is not applied to oligarchs, politicians and government officials.
3) The destruction of civil liberties through the nation and the militarization of police.
4) Endless and pointless wars abroad, as well as the destructive war on drugs at home.

As you yourself admit: “the 1 percent are much bigger factors in all forms of our society.” This is true, and since the 0.01% wields even greater power, you must accept responsibility for these issues. Instead, you just come on television and call everyone envious.

The fact that there is such tremendous overlap on such major issues from activists on the so-called “left” and the “right” is extraordinarily important. These are real grievances that are not going away. Angst on these issues must be dealt with, and no amount of superficial, ignorant statements will change that reality. The only thing that the arrogant oligarch attitude will do is cause more people to despise you. Is that what you want?

I don’t think you’re a bad guy with evil intent. I think you are a money obsessed financier who hasn’t taken the time to actually understand what is really going on within your own country because you have your head so far up your own ass. It’s hard for anyone to actually look at themselves in the mirror and be honest about themselves and the myths they create. However, history shows us that when decadent plutocrats are unable to do so, we end up with disastrous situations. Situations which are often times violent and result in despotism. A situation I desperately hope to avoid, and I truly hope you and others like you recognize your error before it is too late.

In Liberty,
Michael Krieger

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An Open Letter to Sam Zell: Why Your Statements are Delusional and Dangerous originally appeared on A Lightning War for Liberty on February 6, 2014.

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Russia, One of the Assad Regime’s Strongest Allies, Calls For ‘Olympic Truce’

The Winter Olympics in Sochi are already

a bit of a mess
and there remain concerns that the site of the
games, which is relatively close to Chechnya, could be the target
of
terrorist

attacks
.

Carrying on a tradition that goes back to when the Olympics were
held in ancient Greece, the Russian foreign ministry has called for
a
global ceasefire
to be implemented for the duration of the
games.

In a statement released today, the Russian foreign ministry
specifically mentions the civil war in Syria:

First of all, our call is addressed to all sides in the bloody
conflict in Syria, which has significantly destabilized the
situation in the country and in the region as a whole.

The irony is, of course, that Russia has been one of the Assad
regime’s strongest allies and supporters throughout the Syrian
civil war.

From a The
Daily Beast
 article based on an interview with Rep. Mike
Rogers (R-Mich.):

The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW),
the U.N.-affiliated group that has conducted inspections so far in
17 Syrian chemical weapons facilities—efforts that contributed to
its Nobel Peace Prize win this year—said the Syrian government has
“cooperated fully” with inspectors.

But the OPCW and the U.N. have no mandate to stop Russia from
continuing to supply Syria with advanced conventional weapons.
Rogers said Russia’s continued shipments to Syria have included
spare parts and equipment for attack helicopters as well as
artillery and other kinds of air defense and anti-tank rockets. The
U.S. Congressional Research Service estimated that between 2008 and
2011, Russia made conventional arms transfers to Syria worth $1.7
billion. More recently, Human Rights Watch has assessed that
Russian-made thermobaric bombs were used in a government assault on
the Syrian city of Raqqa at the end of September. Other Russian
weapons Syria has used in the conflict include the T-72 tank, the
Grad rocket, and the M240 mortar, according to Human Rights
Watch.

More reporting on Russia’s military aid to Syria
here
, here, and

here

There is no chance that the violence in Syria is going to stop
while the Winter Olympics take place. As the games and the war in
Syria go on, keep in mind today’s statement from the Russian
foreign ministry. A call for a halt to the violence in Syria is
laudable, but it sounds ridiculous coming from a government that
has helped the Assad regime wage a devastating war.

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