Obama to Open for SXSW, Carson Kinda Dropping Out, Bob Dylan Archives Head to Tulsa: A.M. Links

  • President Obama will be giving a keynote speech at the opening of SXSW.
  • Ben Carson admits his campaign has no “political path forward” and won’t attend tomorrow night’s presidential debate.
  • Police in Connecticut want to be able to use armed drones.
  • Russia and Syria are deliberately targeting civilians to encourage mass migration to Europe, a NATO commander told a Senate committee hearing today.
  • Gen. John Nicholson will be the new commander of U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan.
  • The United Nations imposed new sanctions on North Korea.
  • Bob Dylan’s archives will be housed in Tulsa.

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/24C5IJO
via IFTTT

US Stocks Are The Most Overbought In 12 Years

With GAAP valuations topping 22x, macro data weakening everywhere, and US equities at their most overbought since 2004, what could possibly go wrong?

The McClellan Oscillator has reached over 90 which represents a highly overbought level. However, more amazingly, if you look at it through the lens of a monthly chart there is no evidence of any correction ever having taken place in 2016. No red whatsoever

Source: NorthmanTrader.com

 

And further, an over 10% rally off the lows and still Nasdaq has not managed to have a single day with more new highs than new lows in 2016…

Source: NorthmanTrader.com


We are sure this is nothing to worry about, just buy stocks.


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1WVq3E7 Tyler Durden

Sheep Line Up For Slaughter: Investors Buy Most Junk Bonds Ever

HYG – the high yield bond ETF – is trading at its richest to NAV in over 4 years after 7 straight days of inflows. This flowgasm seemed to crescendo yesterday where Credit Suisse estimated a very sizeable HY retail fund inflows (total amount hitting ~$1.9bn) which they note beat 5-Nov-2014 as being the largest inflow day ever.

 

With the ETF at such an extreme in valuation and given the historical performance of the fund after 7 straight days of inflows…

(green shaded regions show 7 straight days of inflows.. and the red arrow the subsequent performance)

It appears the sheep are heading for slaughter once more…


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/21I2guM Tyler Durden

Oil Options Traders Ain’t Buying It – Bearish Bets Biggest In A Year

Despite Andy Hall's wish hope forecast guess statement that "the bottom is in," for crude (and oil analysts unicorn-like forecast of $47 by year-end), it seems oil options traders disagree significantly.

The cost of protect against downside risk is the highest it has been in a year, despite underlying oil prices being at 8-week highs

(chart shows implied vol spread between Dec 2016 Crude Puts vs Calls +/-1.5 Sigma)

Today has seen Put vols jump from 51.33 to  56..2 as Call vols fell from 49.63 to 47.6, leaving options traders paying the most since Feb 2015 to protect against lower prices by the end of the year, compared with the cost of hedging the risk of more expensive crude.

As Bloomberg notes, as U.S. production shows continued resilience to low prices, Iran returns to global markets and Saudi Arabia keeps pumping, options markets show the threat of "lower for longer" prices hasn’t disappeared.


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1OQPelk Tyler Durden

Chesapeake Founder Aubrey McClendon Dies In Car Crash One Day After Federal Indictment

Just one day after the DOJ unveiled its had indicted Chesapeake Founder and former CEO Aubrey McClendon on federal charges of conspiring to rig bids for oil and natural gas leases, moments ago the Oklahoma Police announced that he was found dead in a car accident, when while traveling in a 2013 Chevy Tahoe at a high rate of speed he crashed while driving on a two-lane highway and was engulfed in flames.

  • FORMER CHESAPEAKE CEO MCCLENDON DEAD AFTER CAR ACCIDENT: CNBC
  • OKLAHOMA CITY POLICE SAY AUBREY MCCLENDON DEAD
  • MCCLENDON WAS GOING FASTER THAN SPEED LIMIT: POLICE
  • MCCLENDON WAS ALONE IN 2013 CHEVY TAHOE WHEN HE CRASHED
  • MCCLENDON’S VEHICLE ENGULFED IN FLAMES AFTER CRASH

The police adds that it responded at 9:12 am to a fatality accident involving McClendon, and that he was traveling south on Midwest Blvd., between Memorial and 122nd St.. The scene of the crash:

Oklahoma Police reveals more details on the crash in the CNBC clip below:

 

Earlier today, McClendon released the following statement regarding the DOJ indictment:

“The charge that has been filed against me today is wrong and unprecedented. I have been singled out as the only person in the oil and gas industry in over 110 years since the Sherman Act became law to have been accused of this crime in relation to joint bidding on leasehold.  Anyone who knows me, my business record and the industry in which I have worked for 35 years, knows that I could not be guilty of violating any antitrust laws.  All my life I have worked to create jobs in Oklahoma, grow its economy, and to provide abundant and affordable energy to all Americans. I am proud of my track record in this industry, and I will fight to prove my innocence and to clear my name.” – Aubrey McClendon

And now let the speculation begin whether this was a suicide.

More details to come.


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1OQPgd3 Tyler Durden

“How To Move To Canada” Searches Spike 1,000% After Trump Super Tuesday Rout

Super Tuesday sure was “super” for Donald Trump.

The billionaire – who has gone from “joke” to “frontrunner” in the span of just 9 months – is now the presumed pick for the GOP nomination.

That’s rattled the Republican establishment and sent shockwaves through Washington where no one – and we mean on one – can figure out how this happened.

And while citizens clearly believe Trump is preferable to America’s entrenched political aristocracy, there are quite a few people who have very real reservations about the prospects of a Trump presidency. As we noted earlier this week, readers will likely disagree with a number of Larry Summers’ points, but the bottom line is that some Americans are concerned about the direction the coutnry will take under a Trump presidency.

As The Telegraph notes, searches by Americans for “how can I move to Canada” were up more than 1,000% at their peak after Trump’s Super Tuesday victory.

And so, while this would seem to indicate a bit of national disaffection for the Trump bid, it’s worth noting that the billionaire’s supoort base is unwavering. In fact, the GOP frontrunner’s dominating performance on Tuesday evening indicates that for every American who wants to move to Canada should in the event he wins the presidency, there are just as many (or many more) Americans who think Trump is just what the country needs. 

“While analysts were already aware of Trump’s popularity among less-educated workers, his landslide win in Massachusetts with 49 per cent of the vote was particularly surprising, since the state has the most educated population in the U.S,” The Telegraph goes on to note. 

At his victory speech in Florida, he said: “I’m going to get along very well with the world. You’re going to be very proud of me as president.”

Well, unless you move to Canada. In which case you’ll have to be “very proud” of Justin Trudeau.


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1OQPdxS Tyler Durden

How to Beat the DMV Bureaucracy

ProPublica‘s tagline declares the site’s mission You're just a number to us.as “Journalism in the Public Interest,” and what could be more in the public interest than helping the citizenry beat the unnecessary roadblocks imposed by public employees?

In a recently published article, web producer Hannah Birch describes her quest to secure a New York state driver’s license despite being medically unable to complete the Department of Motor Vehicle’s (DMV) vision exam.

Birch suffers from oculocutaneous albinism, an eye condition which allows her to see well enough to drive safely but which prevents her from making out the small-printed text of an eye exam. She writes, “even though I can’t read those tiny little letters on the sheet of paper they hold up, doctors in three states now have concluded my vision is good enough for me to safely drive.”

The NY DMV provides a form which allows a person to submit a doctor’s evaluation of their ability to drive. Even though Birch had that form, as well as a doctor’s thumb’s up, she knew she was in for a long hard slog at the most loathed of state bueraucracies because as she notes, “government workers can still make it difficult for you to get what you’re qualified for under the law.”

She provides helpful tips for success in a place where you are literally just a number to the people who work there:

  • Know As Much As You Can in Advance
  • Figure Out As Much As You Can Quickly
  • Use Keywords
  • Speak Directly and Stand Your Ground
  • Follow Up With the People Who Helped You Out

Her mantra for slaying the beast can be summarized as “Be nice, know your shit, but don’t take any shit.” But Birch puts it much more politely here:

Bottom line: Don’t get pushed around. As much as you can, know what you are and aren’t obligated to do in a given situation. Be open to talking something through, but don’t get bullied into unnecessary hassles.

Read the whole thing here

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/1RHSJyZ
via IFTTT

Ayn Rand Warned Us About the Dangers of a President Like Trump

Tyler Cowen, George Mason University economist and chief of the Mercatus Center, warns us at his blog Marginal Revolution that:

if you own a large company, it is virtually impossible to be in accordance with all of the regulations all of the time.  If there were a President who wished to pursue vendettas, the regulatory state would be the most direct and simplest way for him or her to do so.  The usual presumption of “innocent until proven guilty” does not hold in many regulatory matters, nor are there always the usual protections of due process….

Philip Hamburger’s book Is Administrative Law Unlawful? occasioned some critical reviews [and] by no means do I agree with everything he said. But these days, the notion that the regulatory state could prove dangerous to individual liberties, and not just to economic growth, needs to be taken more seriously, and he has written the “go to” book on that topic. 

Cowen goes on to point out the special dangers Donald Trump running the executive branch might pose in such a world.

Lots of libertarians, and normal humans as well, learned the overarching basics of that lesson many years ago from Ayn Rand in her novel Atlas Shrugged. (Yes, the same Rand who most anti-Trump crusaders consider a terribly dangerous and ignorant menace.)

In the context of her terrifying tale of a nation and an economy brought to practical and moral ruin by an overpowerful government driven by a veneer of phony altruism, her character Dr. Floyd Ferris tells metal magnate Henry Rearden:

The only power any government has is the power to crack down on criminals. Well, when there aren’t enough criminals, one makes them. One declares so many things to be a crime that it becomes impossible for men to live without breaking laws….just pass the kind of laws that can neither be observed nor enforced nor objectively interpreted – and you create a nation of law-breakers…”

And a nation of law-breakers’ freedom depends entirely on when or whether the government decides to crack down. No decent person wants a system like that at all. But one might think someone with Trump’s demonstrated sense of raw id would be especially alarming. It’s an important argument against Trump, and alas we’ll have plenty of need to bring it up over and over again as this election year crawls toward it’s terrifying climax.

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/1Lypdwn
via IFTTT

Welcome to the Dark Net: New at Reason

The most paranoid fantasy about what happens in the darkest corners when humanity is unsupervised online might look something like the assassination markets described in Jamie Bartlett’s new book The Dark Net: Inside the Digital Underworld. The idea, hatched by the anarchist Jim Bell, is to allow anonymous digital cash donations toward the slaying of public figures. Correctly predicting the death date wins the bettor a payoff, based on the sly presumption that the reason you got it right was that you caused the death. The idea, Bartlett explains, was to exert “a populist pressure on elected representatives to be good.” This grim technofantasy for angry dissidents has not, as far as we know, ever paid off.

Bartlett directs the Centre for the Analysis of Social Media at the British think tank Demos (not to be confused with the liberal American think tank of the same name). He began his breezy and humane book expecting to find more clear-cut cases of people and behaviors to condemn and proscribe. But what he ended up finding, reports Senior Editor Brian Doherty, was just human beings: dedicated, troubled, incendiary, funny, craving to be heard and understood. Welcome to the Dark Net. Welcome to the human race.

View this article.

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/1LypdfO
via IFTTT

How The U.S. Government And HSBC Teamed Up To Hide The Truth From A Pennsylvania Couple

Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

The reason both the Democratic and Republican establishments are in full on panic mode about the rise of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders is a deep seated fear that the plebs have finally woken up.

Democrats rail against big corporations, while Republicans rail against big government. This scheme has been used to successfully divide and conquer the public for decades while big government and big business successfully schemed to divert all wealth and power to an ever smaller minuscule segment of the population — themselves.

It took awhile, but the people are finally starting getting it and they are royally pissed off. One of the primary mechanisms for this historic elite theft has been the creation of a two-tiered justice system in which the rich, powerful and connected are never prosecuted for their criminality. Instead, the government actively protects them by pretending corporate entities commit crimes as opposed to individuals. Of course, this is impossible, but yet it’s how the government handles white collar crime. The Orwellian named “Justice Department” casually utilizes deferred prosecution agreements (DPAs), in which companies pay a little fine and the criminals themselves walk away with not just their freedom, but ill gotten monetary gains as well.

Nowhere is this most apparent than when it comes to the big banks. The individuals who work at these criminal cartels can literally do anything they want with total impunity. One of the most egregious examples of this was the $1.9 billion settlement arranged with HSBC for laundering Mexican drug cartel money and dealing with sanctioned countries. If you or I did this we’d be sitting in a concrete box eating porridge through a straw for the rest of our lives, but when “masters of the world” at big banks do it, the parent company just pays a slap on the wrist fine and life goes on. That’s how oligarch justice works.

Although the Department of Justice and HSBC thought the money laundering case was settled ancient history, a determined chemist from Pennsylvania is throwing a wrench into their plans and it could have major implications.

The Wall Street Journal reports:

WEST CHESTER, Pa.—When Dean Moore ran into roadblocks with a request for mortgage relief, he did what many people do: He sat down at his kitchen table to bang out an angry letter.

 

The letter has thrust Mr. Moore, a chemist, and his wife, Ann Marie Fletcher-Moore, a part-time bookstore manager, into a high-stakes battle over whether HSBC Holdings PLC must release a secret report on its compliance with a $1.9 billion money-laundering settlement.

A “secret” report. You’ve got to be kidding me.

The disclosure would be the first ever for this type of case and would shine a light on an increasingly common practice for banks accused of breaking the law. Instead of being prosecuted, banks typically enter into settlements under which they often agree to be overseen by monitors whose detailed judgments are kept secret. Judge Gleeson’s order has the potential to dial back that confidentiality, opening a new channel of information that prosecutors say could threaten the viability of such settlements in future cases.

If you don’t get by now that America is a banana republic, there’s little hope for you.

HSBC and Justice Department prosecutors have opposed the release, saying it wouldn’t do much to help Mr. Moore with his mortgage predicament. Judge Gleeson, in his order to unseal the report, said that was irrelevant.

Big banks and the U.S. government are simply 100% in bed together. Constantly scheming to prevent citizens from learning the truth.

The bank is appealing the ruling, but already it may be having an impact. HSBC disclosed last week that the January report by independent monitor Michael Cherkasky found instances of potential financial crime and had “significant concerns” about the bank’s pace of progress in complying with the money-laundering settlement.

A legitimate government that cared about the people would want the public to know this, but not the U.S. government.

The Moores say the experience has been surreal. The couple lives in this Philadelphia suburb with their four children, two dogs and a 15-year-old rabbit and had never spent much time in court other than for jury duty. They have nevertheless held their own against a phalanx of lawyers from the British bank and the Justice Department. A recent hearing in a Brooklyn federal court “was like ‘Law and Order,’” said Mrs. Fletcher-Moore, who is 50 years old.

HSBC admitted in its 2012 settlement that it failed to catch at least $881 million in drug-trafficking proceeds laundered through its U.S. bank and that its staff stripped data from transactions with Iran, Libya and Sudan to evade U.S. sanctions.

 

The mortgage was administered by HSBC, and the Moores say they wrote to the bank starting in 2008 asking it to temporarily lower the 7% interest rate. They said the lender appeared receptive, only for its representatives to misplace documents needed to complete their application for a loan modification several times.

 

Frustrated, the Moores researched the bank online last year and stumbled upon news of the money-laundering settlement and the monitor’s secret report. The Moores say they believe the report details faulty internal controls like those they encountered when trying to modify their loan.

 

If his ruling stands, it would be “the first time we get to see what happens after a bank settles a prosecution,” said Brandon Garrett, a professor at University of Virginia’s law school who has studied the monitor system.

Which is exactly what the U.S. government doesn’t want people to see.

HSBC and the Justice Department are still fighting to keep the report private and have appealed Judge Gleeson’s ruling to the Second Circuit Court of Appeals. An appeals court ruling could be months away. “I feel like a very small boat in a very large ocean,” Mr. Moore wrote at one point, in a letter responding to some of their arguments.

For more on the corrupt U.S. justice system, see:

How the Department of Justice is Actively Trying to Prevent Civil Asset Forfeiture Reform

Is the Justice Department Finally Ready to Jail Corporate Criminals?

Florida Man Sentenced to 2.5 Years in Jail for Having Sex on the Beach

Some Leaks Are More Equal Than Others – Hypocritical D.C. Insiders Line up to Defend General Petraeus from Prosecution

Some Money Launderers are “More Equal” than Others

Some Money Launderers are More Equal than Others Part 2 – CEO of BitInstant is Arrested

Just another day in the…

Screen Shot 2015-09-24 at 5.05.26 PM


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1oZnMNU Tyler Durden