Month: February 2014

Mortgage Applications Plunge Most In 3 Months; “Purchases” Collapse To 19 Year Lows

Despite the surge in “seasonally-adjusted new home sales”, un-seasonally-adjusted mortgage applications tumbled 8.5% this week, the biggest drop in 3 months as the modest January bounce has been almost entirely unwound. This pushes the broad MBA mortgage applications index down to near its lowest in 14 years. However, the home-purchase index continues to collapse. Purchase applications are down 30% from their May highs plunging in the last few weeks to their lowest level since 1995. Must be the weather, eh? Or is it like Bob Shiller warned yesterday, the unwind of “bubble thinking,” especially as “gains are slowing from month-to-month and the strongest part of the recovery in home values may be over.”

 

 

“I think there are pitfalls ahead and this momentum will dissipate.”

 

Charts: Bloomberg


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1cn4Xae Tyler Durden

NATO Responds To Russian Military Drill, Backs “Inviolability” Of Ukraine Frontiers

Shortly after today’s surprising announcement by Russia that it would conduct broad military drills in Central and Western Russia, which would include 150,000 troops, we posted a rhetorical question: How will NATO respond?

Moments ago NATO responded:

  • NATO: INDEPENDENT, STABLE UKRAINE KEY TO EURO-ATLANTIC SECURITY
  • NATO BACKS UKRAINIAN TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY, ALLIANCE SAYS
  • NATO ALLIES CONTINUE TO BACK UKRAINE SOVEREIGNTY, ALLIANCE SAYS
  • NATO BACKS `INVIOLABILITY OF FRONTIERS’ ON UKRAINE: ALLIANCE
  • NATO COMMENDS ARMY FOR STAYING OUT OF UKRAINE POLITICAL CRISIS
  • NATO SAYS IMPERATIVE THAT UKRAINE ARMY DOESN’T INTERVENE

Full NATO statement:

We continue to follow developments in Ukraine very closely. We deplore the tragic loss of life. We welcome the fact that violence has been stopped through negotiations that paved the way for a peaceful outcome. We emphasise the importance of an inclusive political process based on democratic values, respect for human rights, minorities and the rule of law, which fulfils the democratic aspirations of the entire Ukrainian people.

 

NATO and Ukraine have a distinctive partnership, embodied in the NATO-Ukraine Commission. Through that partnership framework, NATO stands ready to continue to engage with Ukraine and assist with the implementation of reforms. Defence reform and military cooperation remain key priorities. We commend the Ukrainian armed forces for not intervening in the political crisis. In a democracy, it is imperative that the armed forces do not intervene in the political process. We underscore the need to strengthen democratic control over the defence and security sector, with effective parliamentary oversight and the robust involvement of civil society. In the context of recent tragic events, transparent democratic and accountable institutions are essential to the future of Ukraine.

 

A sovereign, independent and stable Ukraine, firmly committed to democracy and the rule of law, is key to Euro-Atlantic security. Consistent with the Charter on a Distinctive Partnership between NATO and Ukraine, NATO Allies will continue to support Ukrainian sovereignty and independence, territorial integrity, democratic development, and the principle of inviolability of frontiers, as key factors of stability and security in Central and Eastern Europe and on the continent as a whole.

And as the military escalations – now on both sides – escalate some more, the algos are BTFATH. Let’s sit back and watch which back off first.


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1ptkVrU Tyler Durden

Gold Brightens As Bitcoin Exchange Goes “Dark”

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,340.00, EUR 975.33 and GBP 803.12 per ounce.                        

Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,332.75, EUR 969.48 and GBP 798.53 per ounce.  


Gold rose $2.80 or 0.21% yesterday to $1,340.60/oz. Silver fell $0.15 or 0.68% at $21.86/oz.

Gold has given up early gains and is now lower in all currencies and 0.6% lower in dollars to $1,332.20/oz. Traders may be taking profits today after gold reached 4 month highs. Economic data yesterday raised questions about the strength of the U.S. economy, increasing gold’s safe-haven appeal.



Gold in US Dollars – 1 Year (Bloomberg)

Data yesterday showed that U.S. home price gains slowed in December, underscoring the risk of an end to the recent housing recovery, while consumer confidence also fell this month.

Value investors are finding gold attractive at these levels on worries about economic conditions in the United States and also China, which has seen unprecedented growth in corporate and sovereign debt.

Mt. Gox, once the world’s largest and most popular bitcoin exchange, has gone “dark” or offline.

Mt. Gox went offline early yesterday morning. The site made no announcement to users about its shutting down, they were instead met with an empty page. Moreover, Bitcoin has halted cash withdrawals following the departure of its chief executive.

There are allegations that the company is insolvent and that bitcoin buyers have lost over $375 million dollars due to a multi year hacking effort that went unnoticed by the company.

According to a leaked document, the exchange is insolvent after losing 744,408 bitcoins — worth about $375 million at Monday’s trading prices.

sovereign_Bitcoin.JPG
Gold Sovereign and Bitcoin


Reports that hackers may have pilfered more than $375 million in Bitcoin from Mt. Gox prompted companies from San Francisco to London as well as their industry group, the Bitcoin Foundation, to assure Bitcoin users that their funds won’t disappear due to theft or mismanagement.

“This is certainly not the end of Bitcoin,” the foundation said yesterday in a statement. “As our industry matures, we are seeing a second wave of capable, responsible entrepreneurs and investors who are building reliable services for this ecosystem.”

 

The shutdown of Mt. Gox comes after months in which the currency’s price soared and it attracted increased attention from investors and speculators. We cautioned clients that it should not be seen as a store of value and that its potential value was as a means of exchange.

Virtual currencies remain an innovative and increasingly important means of payment. However, claims that bitcoins are safe haven currencies that would compete with gold bullion look increasingly misguided.

The developments are bullish for gold prices as various bitcoin exchanges had captured capital flows from investors and speculators who are skeptical of the current financial and monetary system and many of whom would have previously have bought gold and silver.  Some of this capital is more likely to flow into gold in the coming months.

Webinar Today: Gerald Celente
Topic: Strategies For Protecting Your Wealth In 2014 And Beyond
Time: 2000 GMT / 1200 PST / 1500 EST / 1400 CST

Register Here


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1k98ctK GoldCore

Russian Lukoil Halts Oil Supplies To Ukraine Odessa Refinery

A few days ago we reported that the Ukraine decided to call Russia’s “trump card” bluff – that would be everyone else’s reliance on Russian gas supplies – when it drastically cut imports of Russian gas by 80% in February, seemingly to demonstrate its energy independence from Puting. Now Russia has decided to take the Ukraine to task, by announcing it has halted oil deliveries to the Ukraine Odessa refinery. Hopefully the Ukraine, whose foreign currency reserves tumbled from $17.9 billion on February 1 to $15 billion currently, has alternative means of supplying itself with energy from benevolent sources, particularly those who are willing to provide the country with oil in exchange for goodwill.

From Itar-Tass:

Russia’s oil company LUKOIL has stopped oil supplies to the Odessa refinery in Ukraine.

 

“The last tanker was sent on December 29,” a company official said on Wednesday, February 26.

 

Ukrainian media reports said earlier in the day that police had sealed oil tanks at the Kherson refinery. Oilnews quoted eye witnesses as saying that police had blocked all exits from the Odessa refinery in the morning of February 25.

 

On February 24, the refinery’s Director Valery Chakheyev tendered resignation; executive Director Sergei Kuznetsov and other top managers also walked out of the enterprise’s offices.

 

Media reports also said that the refinery would soon stop operation as it gets no more oil from the Sintez Oil transshipment centre that has stopped supplies to the enterprise because of its debts.

 

The refinery has also been notified about the coming termination of power supplies from February 27 because of the unpaid debts.

 

Telephones at the Odessa refinery do not answer. Sintez Oil officials told ITAR-TASS they “have no information.”

Ukraine may have gotten its indepdence from Russia. One wonders how much it likes being independent of heating and energy too.


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1hgd4KC Tyler Durden

USD Jumps Most In A Month As Russia Rattles Saber

The Russian Ruble has weakened almost 1% today, pressing above 36 against the USD and nearing all-time record weakness. The Hrynia is collapsing. The Turkish Lira is re-collapsing and the EUR is having its worst day in over a month as safe-haven flows flood back to the USD following various headlines from the Russia-Ukraine border.

Since the headlines started from Russia, the USD has been bid…

 

With its best day in a month..

 

Charts: Bloomberg


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1ewjno4 Tyler Durden

What Weather? New Home Sales Surge 9.6% In Feb As Median Home Price Drops To 5 Month low

Following last month’s biggest miss in 5 months, New Home Sales were revised higher in Jan and rose 9.6% in February to 468k (beating the 400k expectations by the most in 13 months). This is a new five-year high for new home sales. The “catastrophic” storm-battered NorthEast had new home sales of 33k – the highest since June; and the Snow-covered South saw huge sales. Home prices are up year-over-year by 3.4% but dropped to their lowest since August. If this does not entirely dismiss the ‘weather is to blame’ meme for any other macro weakness, then what does?

 


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1fHa1ul Tyler Durden

Don’t Legalize Marijuana Yet, Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper Warns Other States

thumbs down all aroundIn November 2012, Colorado voters
approved a scheme to legalize, regulate, and tax marijuana in their
state, opening up a whole new revenue stream for local and state
governments while instilling fear in the hearts of drug warriors
who profit from the continued criminalization and demonization of
marijuana and other narcotics.

The state’s governor, however, doesn’t think other states should
follow Colorado’s lead. The AP
reports on the recent National Governors Association
meeting:

Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper is warning other
governors against rushing to follow his lead.

He said he’s spoken to “half a dozen” governors with questions
about his state’s experience, including some who “felt this was a
wave” headed to their states.

“When governors have asked me, and several have, I say that we
don’t have the facts. We don’t know what the unintended
consequences are going to be,” Hickenlooper said. “I urge
caution.”

The Democrat continued: “I say, if it was me, I’d wait a couple of
years.”

Thankfully for Colorado residents, it wasn’t up to Hickenlooper,
it was up to them to decide to move Colorado toward a saner
marijuana policy. So far, most places in the United States that
have moved toward legalizing marijuana, be they Colorado or
Washington or any of the
local municipalities that have gone in that direction, have
done so through various ballot initiatives. In Alaska, where the
courts effectively legalized the consumption of marijuana in 1975,
voters
are moving toward putting the actual legalization of marijuana.
Alaska was one of five
states I suggested could be next to legalize marijuana.
 Residents in all of them will likely have to rely on voters
in their state to legalize marijuana, because as Hickenlooper
illustrates, the politicians don’t have the spine, and the drug
war’s a good hustle for politicians and other government
employees.

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/1c8b7QT
via IFTTT

A. Barton Hinkle on Obama’s Bogus Budget

“With the 2015 budget request,” The
Washington Post reported last week, “Obama will call for an
end to the era of austerity that has dogged much of his
presidency.”

Well, it’s about time! The end of austerity cannot come soon
enough, writes A. Barton Hinkle. And a quick look at the historical
budget tables shows why: In 2008, the federal government spent just
a hair under $3 trillion. After six years of President
Slash-and-Burn, spending has shrunk to almost $4 trillion. If we
keep cutting like this, it will be down to $5 trillion before you
know it.

View this article.

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/1frczYZ
via IFTTT

Bottomless Booze Brunch Is Illegal in New York. Boo.

mimosasA scene from our dystopian
future:

It’s an ordinary Sunday morning, when suddenly flak-jacketed
State Liquor Board officials bust down the door of a convivial
brunch spot, pointing guns at the waiters and shouting: “Put down
the pitcher of Bloody Marys and back away slowly, keeping your
hands where I can see them!” Patrons, hovering in that terrible
middle ground between hungover and tipsy, clutch their heads and
hide under wobbly tables laden with undercooked hashbrowns,
weeping. The restaurant owner is hauled away in
cuffs. 

Apparently all-you-can-drink specials at brunch spots in New
York are actually illegal. Luckily for the city’s day drinkers, the
law has actually been on the books for a long time and is generally
not enforced, so the sangria SWAT scenario remains little more a
distant nightmare for now.

But in an effort to be helpful, the NYC Hospitality Alliance
sent out an email to its member restaurants on Monday reminding
them that state law does in fact prohibit the “selling, serving,
delivering or offering to patrons an unlimited number of drinks
during any set period of time for a fixed price.”

The New York Post is
on the case, obviously, grabbing this quote from Robert
Bookman, counsel to the NYC Hospitality Alliance.

“I don’t think it’s a high enforcement priority,” he said. “The
community boards don’t seem to be complaining about it and the
customers definitely aren’t complaining about it.”

Of course, happy customers, happy vendors, and no negative
externalities aren’t good enough reasons for regulators to leave
well enough alone forever. 

But it’s not all doom and gloom on the brunch front in America,
Virginia just
deregulated the advertising of drink specials. So not only are
unlimited mimosas totally legal to serve in the Old Dominion, it’s
even legal for restaurants to tell you about those specials on
Twitter.

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/1hSWR0P
via IFTTT

Gold & Silver Smackdown Resumes As JPY Strength Sends Stocks Sliding

We haven’t seen the once ubiquitous morning drubbing of precious metals for a while but this morning gold (and more so silver) have been hammered. US equities’ overnight quiet meltup has given way as AUDJPY is once again fully in charge. Emerging market FX is tumbling (Turkish Lira as well as Ukraine). Treasuries are rallying once again as the USD soars on the back of EUR weakness. It appears Russia’s actions (Readiness tests) this morning are prompting a flight to USD and bond safety for now (and as the turmoil picked gold has stopped dropping).

 

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1kgFB2q Tyler Durden