Iceland PM Refuses To Resign, Faces No Confidence Vote Following “Panama Papers” Scandal

As reported last night, one of the first politicians to suffer a career casualty will probably be Iceland’s prime minister Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson, who was exposed by the Panama Papers as secretly owning a company called Wintris set up in 2007 on the Caribbean island of Tortola in the British Virgin Islands, to hold investments with his wealthy partner, later wife, Anna Sigurlaug Pálsdóttir.

The moment when he realized the data had been made public was revealed in this striking interview, during which the PM walked out, saying “What are you trying to make up here? This is totally inappropriate.”

 

The Iceland public appears to agree with at least the second part of his assessment, if only as pertains to his secret financial dealings and as Bloomberg reports, the PM now faces a no confidence vote. “The opposition has called for a vote against the government as parliament begins its session at 3 p.m. local time, though it’s still unclear whether the vote can be held on Monday. Protests in Reykjavik organized by a Facebook group calling for “Elections Now!” are due to start two hours after the opening of the assembly.”

The outcome of the vote appears almost certain: “I hope that Sigmundur David realizes the seriousness of this matter and has the decency to resign before parliament convenes today,” Birgitta Jonsdottir, a lawmaker for the Pirate Party, said on her Facebook page on Monday.
A March MMR poll showed that Jonsdottir’s political group is now Iceland’s biggest with 37 percent of voters backing it, compared with 36.2 percent for the ruling coalition of the Independence and Gunnlaugsson’s Progressive Party. Still, the premier’s coalition holds 40 of the seats 63 in parliament.

He has so far not resigned, and to the contrary the premier has tried to defend himself, writing on his website that “It’s been clear since before I began participating in politics that my wife had a considerable amount of money. Some people find that in itself very negative. I can’t do much about that because I’m neither going to divorce my wife nor demand that she relinquish her family inheritance.”

Bloomberg adds that his wife’s holdings also included bonds in the three failed banks, whose collapse in 2008 brought the country to its knees and triggered the imposition of capital controls. Gunnlaugsson’s judgment is now being questioned since he had been in charge of negotiations with the creditors as part of an effort to exit capital controls.

What is curious is that in this particular case there may be no actual wrongdoing: according to the ICIJ report, Palsdottir says she has always paid all her taxes owed on the Wintris account, which was confirmed by her tax firm, KPMG. That, of course, assumes the auditing firm is telling the truth.

“As has been explained publicly, in establishing this company, the Prime Minister and his wife have adhered to Icelandic law, including declaring all assets, securities and income in Icelandic tax returns since 2008,” a Gunnlaugsson spokesman said in a statement to the ICIJ.

Which goes to the fundamental question behind tax havens: is one guilty until proven innocent simply for having an offshore shell, whether disclosed or not.  As Bloomberg notes, “offshore holdings can be legal, though documents show some banks and law firms failed to follow requirements to check their clients are not involved in crimes.”

A breakdown of all uses, from the legitimate to the illegal is shown below (courtesy of Fusion).

 

In the case of Iceland’s prime minister, we may get the answer as soon as this afternoon.


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Talkin’ Paranoia on Public Radio

The eyes ARE a triangle.The public radio show To the Best of Our Knowledge dedicated this past weekend’s episode to the topic of conspiracy theories, and one of the people they spoke with was me. My segment is here; the whole show, which also includes interviews with psychologist Rob Brotherton, religion scholar David G. Robertson, and reporter Patricia Goldstone, is here.

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The Future of Money

Submitted by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds

The cartels and state organs are frantically trying to co-op, outlaw, corral or control this disruptive technology.

To say that the future of money is blockchain-based crypto-currencies and payment platforms is to state the obvious nowadays. If this wasn’t the case, then why are Goldman Sachs et al. (i.e. the global too big to fail banks) rushing to patent their own proprietary versions of blockchain technologies? Why are banks investing heavily in companies that are trying to establish a global blockchain platform for banks?

The reason is that banks understand their core reason to exist is threatened by peer-to-peer, decentralized payment platforms and currencies. If payments no longer need to be routed through a centralized trusted institution, then one core function of banks disappears.

If peer-to-peer lending and securitization becomes easier and cheaper due to the blockchain, then banks’ function of allocating capital also vanishes.

Gordon White and I discuss The Future of Money (and its connection to meaningful work) (1:11 hrs; be forewarned we cover a wealth of topics, from philosophy to higher education to gardening to creating value in an economy that is being disrupted.)

Since money–currency that serves as a medium of exchange–no longer needs to be issued by central banks/states, central banks/states are also in danger of being mooted/bypassed as enterprises and people realize they can escape the relentless destruction of their purchasing power by inflation-seeking central banks/states.

If you aren’t familiar with blockchain technologies and crypto-currencies, and how these innovations are disrupting centralized banking and state-issued currencies, here are a few articles to start with:

Why Wall Street Is Embracing the Blockchain—Its Biggest Threat

“The premise of the Bitcoin platform—a decentralized, trustless, replicated ledger of transactions—is the virtual opposite of the centralized, trusted, guarded, model of modern securities processing, which has long relied upon DTCC, among others, as a central authority,” reads a treatise the organization released alongside that canned quote from its CEO. In other words, the DTCC realizes that it’s embracing an existential threat.

Forget How Blockchain Works, Talk About What It Does

Block chain (database)

Blockchain: The next big thing (or is it?) (5/9/15)

All that is needed, blockchain boosters argue, is a “killer app” to find a use for the breakthrough, in the same way that web browsers made the internet useful. Some still think that a currency is the most promising application, but plenty of engineers are throwing other ideas against the wall to see what sticks.

Bitcoin Blockchain Technology In Financial Services: How The Disruption Will Play Out

“For an entire industry to be focused on a new technology within three years [of it being known beyond the initial core of enthusiasts] without it actually even disrupting them even 1% yet is an interesting reality,” says Chain.com CEO Adam Ludwin. For instance, he notes that in 2000 the recording companies’ reaction to Napster was not to invest in digital models but instead to sink money into lawsuits.

Nobody can predict precisely how blockchain technologies will disrupt centralized banking and currencies, but we can predict the blockchain will disrupt the current cartel-state arrangement that benefits the few at the expense of the many.

The cartels and state organs are frantically trying to co-op, outlaw, corral or control this disruptive technology. Here’s an analogy: North Korea has managed to co-op, outlaw, corral or control the Internet, and how prosperous and productive is North Korea?

We cannot let the banks and central banks/states co-op, outlaw, corral or control blockchain technologies. If they “win,” our economy will stagnate and the slide to complete implosion will be unstoppable.

The Future of Money (podcast, 1:11 hrs, with host Gordon White)


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Vietnam Seizes Chinese Ship In Gulf Of Tonkin

The territorial scramble for various resource rich areas in the East/South China Sea and specifically the Spratly islands has been a major point of contention involving China and most of its regional neighbors, recently expanding to the US which is determined not to let China have the upper hand, for nearly two years now, with occasional episodes of escalation that threaten the regional peace. One such episode took place on Thursday of last week when the Vietnamese coast guard seized a Chinese vessel for intruding into its territorial waters, according to a local report Saturday.

As the Nikkei reports, in a rare move for Vietnamese authorities against a Chinese vessel, the coast guard in the northern port city of Haiphong seized the ship carrying diesel fuel in the infamous Gulf of Tonkin on Thursday.

The WSJ adds that Border Defense Force of Haiphong City found the vessel carrying 100,000 liters of diesel oil Thursday near Vietnam’s Bach Long Vi Island in the Gulf of Tonkin, reported the An Ninh Thu Do newspaper, which is run by Hanoi Police Department. After seizing it, the force towed the ship to the city.

The paper said Vietnamese authorities are investigating the case.

The captain of the Chinese ship admitted to the intrusion, telling Vietnamese officials the ship was carrying fuel for Chinese fishing boats operating in Vietnamese waters, according to the report.

This is the biggest territorial escalation between the two countries since 2014 when China towed an oil rig to disputed waters in the South China Sea in 2014, triggering dangerous boat ramming and anti-China riots in Vietnam.

Officials from Vietnam and China haven’t yet commented on the seizure.


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Frontrunning: April 4

  • Ties between Germany and Russia enter new chill (Reuters)
  • Tax authorities begin probes into some people named in Panama Papers leak (Reuters)
  • SEC investigates ex-JPMorgan debt traders (FT)
  • Who Will Win Wisconsin? Here Are Six Credible Predictions (BBG)
  • Victim in Wall St. Scheme Was a Classmate of Its Accused Architect (NYT)
  • Makers took big price increases on widely used U.S. drugs (Reuters)
  • Fed’s New Bank Critic Keeps Heat On (WSJ)
  • Biggest Ever Saudi Overhaul Targets $100 Billion of Revenue (BBG)
  • Behind Anbang’s Curious Starwood Courtship (WSJ)
  • Migrants sent back from Greece arrive in Turkey under EU deal (Reuters)
  • Tesla Model 3 orders point to potential $10bn sales (FT)
  • Euro-Area Unemployment Declines to Lowest Since 2011 (BBG)
  • Saudi Arabia Enters Homebuilding Business to Tackle Shortage (BBG)
  • Bernie Sanders’ ghost tweeter keeps his Brooklyn accent (Reuters)
  • Alaska Air to buy Virgin America for $2.6 billion (Reuters)
  • ECB to Keep Up Forceful Action on Price Risks, Praet Says (BBG)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

– Alaska Air Group Inc is expected to announce on Monday that it won the auction for Virgin America Inc, beating rival JetBlue Airways Corp in a frenzied bidding process that culminated in a cash price of about $2.5 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. (http://on.wsj.com/239acWy)

– Reservations for Tesla Motors Inc’s Model 3 electric car have now topped 276,000 since the company began taking deposits on March 31. Tesla CEO Elon Musk gave an update on reservations through Twitter late Saturday evening, after updating the figure several times since Thursday evening’s unveiling of the prototype Model 3, due to be out in late 2017. (http://on.wsj.com/224gRin)

– Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Sunday that the Federal Bureau of Investigation hasn’t yet contacted her about her use of a private email server and some of her most sensitive emails. (http://on.wsj.com/239Qf1J)

– Hain Celestial Group, maker of natural shampoos and soaps, said it was reformulating dozens of products and dropping claims that they don’t contain sodium lauryl sulfate, a cleaning agent often used in mainstream products. (http://on.wsj.com/1SLTTdq)

 

FT

Five former traders from Barclays are set to stand trial this week on charges of fraud related to Libor. (http://on.ft.com/1N4pK4u)

The U.S. Securities Exchange Commission has launched an investigation into government debt trades made by two former JPMorgan Chase and Co employees. (http://on.ft.com/1N4pRgC)

A catalogue of failings led to the collapse of an NHS contract seven months after it began, an official report concluded. (http://on.ft.com/1N4q0Rf)

Pre-orders for Tesla Model 3 continued over the weekend, raising questions about the carmaker’s ability to meet demand. (http://on.ft.com/1N4q1Vk)

 

NYT

– One of Wall Street’s top deal makers Scott Barshay is moving to Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison after a 25-year career at the white-shoe law firm Cravath, Swaine and Moore. (nyti.ms/239Q3Qd)

– In an article, the International Consortium of investigative Journalists said leaked documents from a Panama law firm Mossack Fonseca revealed the offshore accounts of 140 politicians and public officials, including a dozen current and former world leaders and several individuals with close ties to President Vladimir Putin of Russia.(nyti.ms/1RyTU5p)

– When Andrew Caspersen sought money for an investment that federal authorities said duped investors out of tens of millions of dollars, one of the people he turned to was a college classmate at Princeton University, James McIntyre. McIntyre managing director at the hedge fund Moore Capital Management, is the previously unidentified individual who federal prosecutors said last week invested – and lost – $400,000 in Caspersen’s scheme. (nyti.ms/1ZY7p0A)

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** Prime Minister Justin Trudeau wants to transform the Liberal Party from a members-only club into a more inclusive – and free – political movement. A proposal, adopted at a meeting of the party’s national board over the weekend, would do away with the long-standing policy that only dues-paying, card-carrying Liberals can get involved in party activities. (http://bit.ly/1W4XxSo)

** A massive leak of millions of confidential documents from a Panamanian law firm has drawn back the curtain on the world of offshore tax evasion and money laundering, and allegedly includes a $2-billion money trail linked to associates of Russian President Vladimir Putin. (http://bit.ly/1RIdHfm)

NATIONAL POST

** Starbucks Canada to start selling wine, craft beer and cider in Toronto as it hones in on customer base (http://bit.ly/1V3GOPW)

 

Britain

The Times

Tens of thousands of steelworkers in the UK could have their pensions cut under plans by Tata Steel to wash its hands of the 15 billion pounds British Steel retirement scheme.(http://bit.ly/1RW1SYv)

In order to give its staff in the UK “a balanced view”, JP Morgan has drafted in former EU commissioner Peter Mandelson and two pro-Brussels business leaders to warn staff against Brexit.(http://bit.ly/1Y98NMk)

The Guardian

Police have warned people in Lancashire and Wilmslow, Cheshire, not to use Santander cash machines, following reports of suspicious devices being found on the bank’s machines across Lancashire last week. (http://bit.ly/1RGv00f)

Though Beijing is optimistic about its plans to help build new reactors at Hinkley in Somerset and Bradwell in Essex, an agreement between Chinese nuclear firm CGN and its partner EDF of France to develop the first new reactors in Britain for 20 years has still not been signed.(http://bit.ly/25EjhJ0)

The Telegraph

Britain’s exit from the European Union would lead to the “implosion” of the continental bloc and force the United States to intervene to put “Humpty Dumpty back together again”, Xavier Rolet, head of the London Stock Exchange said. (http://bit.ly/1RW39P6)

Britain’s steel industry is set to be saved from collapse by two little-known financiers who hope to revive the “British Steel” name. (http://bit.ly/1qhju51)

Sky News

Millions of documents leaked to a number of media organisations across Europe apparently show the ways the rich and famous leaders, politicians including three former Tory MPs and six peers, can exploit secretive offshore tax regimes. (http://bit.ly/1RVOvYe)

Billionaire Investor Wilbur Ross is among a pack of possible buyers who are likely to be contacted in the coming days, to rescue Tata Steel’s UK operations.(http://bit.ly/1W3x0Vy)

The Independent

A multibillion pound move to save Britain’s steel industry from collapse by underwriting some of its pension liabilities, cutting its energy bills and modernising its largest plant is being prepared by the British Government.(http://ind.pn/1RZKV98)


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Bernie Sanders Says Scott Walker’s Ideology ‘Kills People’

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt.), who has expressed support for murderous communist regimes like those in Nicaragua and honeymooned in Moscow in the 1980s, after the Soviet Union had already been responsible for the deaths of tens of millions of people in Russia as well as around the developing world, accused Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) of being responsible for people’s death because of his “right-wing ideology,” his decision to decline Medicaid expansion in his state and his support for some entitlement and spending reforms.

Sanders’ father emigrated from Poland in 1921, at the tail end of the Polish-Soviet war, which was lost by the Soviets, who would invade Poland again in 1939 and impose murderous regimes there and across Central and Eastern Europe that lasted more than half a century.

Sanders is the “good guy” to the Donald Trump “bad guy” (who, like Sanders, is anti-trade, believes immigration laws are a plot by wealthy people to endanger American workers, and peddles myths about money in politics) in the mainstream liberal narrative. Clinton, who pushed U.S. intervention and military actions in Libya and elsewhere in the Muslim world, has so far escaped any serious discussion of her responsibility for people killed by the U.S. government when she was a member of the Obama cabinet.

This election is beyond parody.

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Germany To Greece: No Debt Relief For You

Whether or not the IMF intended to use a Greek credit event to destabilize Europe as the Greek government first alleged, or whether this was “nonsense” as Lagarde responded to Tsipras letter, is irrelevant – ultimately the underlying premise was whether or not Greece gets debt relief, something the IMF has been insisting on since the third bailout package. And as is well-known, it was Germany – not Greece – that stood in the IMF’s way.

So after a terse weekend in which relations between Greece and the IMF devolved once again to frigidly sub-zero levels, moments ago Germany chimed in with its position, which can be summed up in another familiar word: “nein“.

As Bloomberg reports, citing finmin Martin Jaeger, “Greek debt relief isn’t on the agenda right now”, adding that the “priority is to put Greek budget on sustainable footing.” He also said that Greece already has historically low repayment costs on bailout loans, and that “we remain confident that we can achieve progress, though there’s still quite a bit of work to do.”

Finally, he said that we “don’t see why we can’t complete review before Orthodox Easter.”

Additionally, the German chief govt spokesman Steffen Seibert said in response to reporter’s question whether they discussed IMF-Greece relations Merkel, that Tsipras spoke by phone on Sunday to discuss “a variety of issues.” He made it clear that Merkel government position on IMF participation in Greek aid program and debt relief hasn’t changed.

Elsewhere, as we first noted in our summary of the Greek reaction to the leaked IMF letter, Bloomberg writes that “Greece could again face the threat of being pushed into default and out of the euro area if its current bailout review drags on into June and July, according to European officials monitoring the slow progress of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s negotiations with creditors.”

Greece still hasn’t cut a deal on pensions, tax administration or its fiscal gap, and other issues like non-performing loans and a proposed privatization fund continue to slow the talks, said the European officials, who asked not to be named because discussions are ongoing. The International Monetary Fund presents another obstacle, they said.

 

The IMF, for its part, disagrees with the euro area on how Greece needs to cut its budget. With Germany insisting that the fund will eventually have to get on board for the bailout to proceed, officials from the IMF are trying to find ways to pressure Chancellor Angela Merkel to give Greece debt relief, according to a transcript of a purported conversation published by WikiLeaks April 2.

At the end of the day, it will be up to the Greek people, and how they react to this latest scandal although with their assets held under the protective “capital controls” buffer which needs the ECB’s continued blessing, we doubt the fireworks of last summer will repeat.


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Global Stocks Rise, Europe Rebounds As Oil Halts Decline

In a quiet start to the week following last week’s surprisingly strong rebound which followed a stronger than expected jobs report (perhaps to demonstrate that good news is once again good news), Japan stocks continued to sink as the USDJPY dropped to fresh lows, while commodities declined for a fifth day as the supply glut from crude to copper weighed on prices, dragging down commodity currencies. European equities rose, rebounding from a one-month low.

Crude fell in early trading after Saudi Arabia’s deputy crown prince said last week the kingdom will only arrest production if Iran does, although it has since posted a modest rebound, while copper dropped to a one-month low. European stocks advanced after trading at their lowest valuations in more than a year relative to U.S. equities, even as France’s phone companies tumbled after a deal to consolidate the nation’s telecommunications industry fell apart.

“Three of the major commodities oil, gold and copper have all retraced in recent days,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S told Bloomberg. “Saudi Arabia caused a major upset on Friday by saying that a freeze deal was conditional of Iran joining which will not happen at this stage.” Copper and industrial metals have been hurt on concern China’s investment-led economic boom won’t be enough to avoid more cutbacks, he said.

In key macro news, Euro-area unemployment dropped to 10.3% in February down from an upwardly revised 10.4%, and the lowest level since 2011, in line with estimates. “I see this number as a movement sideways,” said Aline Schuiling, senior economist at ABN Amro Bank NV in Amsterdam. “This is a reflection of what is happening in the economy. Growth has clearly weakened in the second half of last year and the first quarter of this year will also probably be a bit weaker.”

Youth unemployment remained disturbingly high, with 21.6% of Europeans under 25 unemployed, just modestly lower than the 22.7% a year ago.

In other news, Eurozone producer price inflation also dropped, this time by -0.7%, and down -4.2%, to the most negative annual increase since the financial crisis.

 

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.8%, after being in the red earlier, while futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.2% despite the GAAP PE multiple on the S&P hitting approaching 24, the highest level since the dot com era. While U.S. stocks erased annual losses and closed at their highest level of the year on Friday, the rebound in European shares has stalled for more than two weeks. With a valuation of about 14.7 times estimated earnings, the Stoxx 600 traded at its lowest level since January 2015 relative to the S&P 500 on Friday.

This is where markets stood as of this moment:

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2068
  • Stoxx 600 up 0.8% to 336
  • FTSE 100 up 0.3% to 6165
  • DAX up 0.3% to 9829
  • German 10Yr yield down less than 1bp to 0.13%
  • Italian 10Yr yield up less than 1bp to 1.23%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield up 1bp to 1.45%
  • S&P GSCI Index down 0.3% to 315.5
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.3% to 126
  • Nikkei 225 down 0.3% to 16123
  • S&P/ASX 200 down less than 0.1% to 4995
  • US 10-yr yield down 1bp to 1.76%
  • Dollar Index up 0.13% to 94.74
  • WTI Crude futures down 0.7% to $36.53
  • Brent Futures down 0.3% to $38.55
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,217
  • Silver spot down 0.6% to $14.96

Top News:

  • Orange-Bouygues Deal Collapse Ends Months of Tense Diplomacy: Deal to consolidate French telecom industry proved too complex; government demands on price, governance were late obstacle
  • Alaska Air Said Near Accord to Buy Branson’s Virgin America: Negotiations are advanced, deal could face regulatory scrutiny after wave of combinations; JetBlue Airways was said to be other competitor in bidding; Alaska Air Seen Winning Virgin America for ~$2.5b Cash: WSJ
  • World Leaders Hid Wealth Via Shell Companies, Report Alleges: Leaked files from Panama law firm show web of hidden wealth, International Consortium of Investigative Journalists says
  • Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Mulls U.S. Regional Banks in Growth Bid: U.S. banking market remains aa focus because of size and steady growth as lender wants to be among top 10 U.S. banks by deposits
  • Biggest Ever Saudi Overhaul Targets $100 Billion of New Revenue: Levies on expats, energy, luxury goods, sugary drinks seen; plan is to boost non-oil revenue to balance budget by 2020
  • Amtrak Resumes Service After Fatal Crash Slows Northeast Trains: To restore regular train service today in Northeast after crash that killed 2 railroad workers near Philadelphia
  • Blackstone to Buy HPE’s Stake in Mphasis for $825m: To buy at least 84% of HPE’s stake for 430 rupees/share, remaining 16% will be bought through mandatory tender offer
  • SoftBank’s Arora Said in ‘Active’ Talks With Yahoo: N.Y. Post: SoftBank President Arora said to be in talks with Yahoo’s board, including CEO Marissa Mayer
  • Trump Back on Attack Demanding Kasich Exit, Predicting Recession: Trump demanded competitor John Kasich drop out of the Republican presidential race and asserted U.S. is headed for a “very massive recession”
  • Top JPMorgan Treasuries Trader’s Exit Said to Draw SEC Inquiry: Regulators examining alleged policy breaches that prompted JPMorgan’s U.S. head of government-bond trading and another employee to leave firm this year, according to person briefed on the matter
  • ‘Batman v Superman’ Rules Box Office for Second Weekend: movie registered hefty sales amid light competition from new releases

Looking at regional markets, we find that Asian stocks trade mostly positive following last Friday’s gains on Wall St. where stronger than expected NFP and Average Hourly Earnings data lifted sentiment, despite weakness across the commodities complex. This saw the ASX 200 (+0.05%) underpinned from the open with participants also short-covering following last week’s declines. Nikkei 225 (-0.25%) saw indecisive price action as a firmer JPY weighed on sentiment, while trade in the region was also thin with China, Hong Kong and Taiwan markets closed for Ching Ming festival. 10 year JGBs traded higher amid indecisiveness in riskier assets while the BoJ also entered the market to purchase about JPY 1.2trl of government debt.

Top Asian News

  • Goldman Says Sell Asia Currencies After Best Rally Since ’08: Predicts yen plunge to 130/dollar, yuan at 7 in 12 mos.
  • BOJ Negative Rates Risk Destroying Loan Market as Freeze Deepens: Call market activity at record low 2 mos. after shift
  • Japan Inc. Inflation Expectations Decline as Confidence Wanes: Cos. cut forecasts for inflation for next 5 yrs from now
  • Honda Fit Fires, Collisions Prompt at Least Sixth Major Recall: Co. recalls more than 283,000 Fits, Vezels in Japan
  • SunEdison Said to Seek Buyers for 1GW of India Solar Projects: Developer has 1,060MW of unbuilt solar projects in India, BNEF says

European equities have seen a downbeat start to the week in terms of newsflow, despite modest upside in Euro Stoxx (+0.2%), with significant underperformance seen in French telecom names after collapse of the potential deal between Orange (-5.5%) and Bouygues (-14.6%), with the likes of Iliad (-14.3%) and Numericable (-14.1%) also suffering as a consequence.

The German curve has reversed some of the initial flattening bias, with Bunds consequently moving off the best levels to trade near unchanged levels even as peripheral bond yield spreads remained broadly wider. GR/GE lOy spread widened by over 10bps even as the head of the IMF dismissed reports that the body is trying to push Greece towards default as “simply nonsense”. At the same time, market participants had to contend with a large slate of EUR denominated corporate supply, with the likes of Fedex and Credit Suisse due to price.

Dovish rhetoric from ECB’s Praet who said that the central bank will act forcefully to low inflation if conditions warrant did little to drive Bunds, with GE/UK spread widening amid the release of better than expected UK construction PMI data

Top European News

  • Praet Says ECB Will React ‘Forcefully’ to Low Inflation If Needed: Says “prolonged period of low inflation we are in today has increased the risks that inflation misses might become persistent”
  • SocGen Plans to Cut About 125 Jobs in France, Mostly in Trading: Plans cuts in France, mostly at trading operations as harsher capital rules put profitability under pressure
  • Melrose Said to Drop Out of Race for Philips Lighting Unit: Likelihood of IPO increases even as sale process continues
  • Greece’s Euro Future May Be Back in Play If Rescue Talks Drag On: Creditors resume talks in Athens on bailout program; pensions, tax policy remain obstacles, EU officials say
  • Lagarde Says IMF Greek Deal Far Off as Talks Roiled by Leaks: Rebuffed Greek calls to replace top officials overseeing country’s bailout, said IMF is “a good distance away” from agreement that would allow for additional loans
  • Banks, Investors Push EU to Fix Flaws in ABS Market Revival Plan: 32 Banks, asset managers and groups issue joint note on plan; signatories to letter include HSBC, BlackRock, UniCredit, BBVA

In currencies, the USD has seen modest gains today, notably against the commodity currencies and the JPY.  The Aussie weakened 0.8 percent to 76.17 U.S. cents, after climbing 2.3 percent last week. Retail sales were little changed in February from a month earlier, a report showed, missing economists’ forecast for a 0.4 percent gain. The nation’s central bank reviews monetary policy on Tuesday, when it’s expected to hold borrowing costs at a record low.

The yen added 0.1 percent to 111.54 per dollar after jumping 0.8 percent on Friday amid the greenback’s retreat. The won strengthened  0.7 percent. The ruble sank 1.5 percent, falling for a second day and South Africa’s rand slid 0.5 percent, leading declines in developing-nation currencies. India’s rupee climbed to the highest this year before foreign investors bid for quotas on the country’s bonds.

In commodities, WTI and Brent have both seen positive trade in mid European trade with WTI finding support at USD 38.20/bbl with the next level in focus on the upside being USD 37.00/bbl. Gold has also seen an uptick in prices after falling earlier in the session and gapping down at the open. Silver also has recovered slightly after falling in the Asian and Early Eu session but there is a key resistance level higher a USD 15.2020/oz. Meanwhile Copper prices were subdued and remained near a monthly low with a lack buyers due to holidays in the Asia including largest consumer China on a technical note there is a key support level for Copper at around the 214.90 level which also coincides with an upward trendline on the daily chart where prices first made its lower highs. In base metals Zinc, Tin and Lead are all following in the same direction with prices edging lower.

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk and Bloomberg

  • French telecom names lead the way lower for European equities, while Bunds fail to gain from risk off sentiment.
  • Commodity linked currencies experiencing modest weakness amid downside in the energy and metals complexes, with AUD continuing to underperform after the downbeat data from overnight.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US Factory Orders and Durables Goods with speakers including Fed’s Rosengren (Voter, Dove) and Kashkari (Non-Voter, N/A)
  • Treasuries little changed, European equity markets rise and Asian markets fall (China closed), oil higher in overnight trading. Today’s economic data includes factory orders, Labor Market Conditions Index.
  • Societe Generale SA said it plans to cut about 125 jobs in France, mostly at its trading operations, as stricter market regulations squeeze profitability
  • Euro-area unemployment retreated in February to 10.3%, the lowest since 2011, continuing its slow decline as the economy grows at a modest pace
  • EU efforts to revive the asset-backed securities market and boost financing for small businesses could falter if repairs aren’t made to its plan for a new class of “simple, transparent and standardized” products, some of the biggest financial firms in the 28-nation bloc said
  • Copper is heading for its longest losing streak in two years amid concern a glut will persist as miners press on with cost cuts and banks such as Barclays Plc see more losses
  • Gold’s biggest quarterly surge since 1986 has all but erased losses the Bank of Russia suffered by mounting a rescue of the ruble more than a year ago.
  • The freeze in Tokyo’s market for overnight loans looks set to extend into a third month as the Bank of Japan’s negative rate policy makes it harder for brokers to price and process transactions
  • Leaked files from a Panama law firm that creates shell companies show that politicians, criminals and celebrities worldwide have used banks and shadow companies to hide their finances
  • Iceland PM Gunnlaugsson faces a no confidence vote in parliament amid revelations he had an investment account in the British Virgin Islands created with the aid of the Panama-based law firm at the center of a global tax evasion leak.
  • Sovereign 10Y bond yields mostly steady; European and Asian equity markets mixed (China, Hong Kong, Taiwan closed); U.S. equity-index futures rise. WTI crude oil rises; gold and copper move lower

US Event Calendar

  • 9:45am: ISM New York, March, est. 54.1(prior 53.6)
  • 10:00am: Labor Market Conditions Index Change, March (prior -2.4)
  • 10:00am: Factory Orders, Feb., est. -1.8% (prior 1.6%)
    • Factory Orders Ex Trans, Feb., est. -0.5% (prior -0.2%)
    • Durable Goods Orders, Feb. F, est. -2.8% (prior -2.8%)
    • Durables Ex Transportation, Feb. F, est. -1.0% (prior -1%)
    • Cap Goods Orders Non-def Ex Air, Feb F (prior -1.8%)
    • Cap Goods Ship Non-def Ex Air, Feb F (prior -1.1%)

Central Banks

  • 9:30am: Fed’s Rosengren speaks in Boston
  • 7:00pm: Fed’s Kashkari speaks

DB’s Jim Reid completes the overnight wrap

This week we’ve got the usual post-payrolls lull in the data but there are still a couple of events which will have some bearing on the near-term direction for markets. The first is on Wednesday evening where we’ll get the March FOMC minutes to comb through. Given the range of dovish (mainly Yellen) and hawkish (Bullard, Lacker, Lockhart, Williams) Fedspeak of late it’ll be interesting to see what clues the minutes throw up. Also potentially interesting this week is a panel interview on Thursday evening which will see current Fed Chair Yellen participate along with former Chairs Bernanke, Volcker and Greenspan.

With that to look forward to, this morning in Asia, with China and Hong Kong closed for holidays it’s been a bit of slow start with most of the price action relatively benign. In Japan we’ve seen the Nikkei (-0.18%) and Topix (+0.10%) trade between gains and losses for the most part, while elsewhere the Kospi is +0.14% and the ASX +0.19%. Credit markets are a touch tighter generally. In the FX space the Aussie Dollar is slightly weaker post some softer than expected retail sales numbers in Australia.

Moving on. News flow over the weekend and this morning has been fairly light but one story which has attracted some attention is coming out of the talks between Greece and its Creditors. Greek PM Tsipras is said to have questioned the credibility of the negotiations following the release of a leaked transcript in which negotiations were said to be ‘difficult’. In an FT article this morning IMF Chief Lagarde is said to have responded to claims that the Fund was looking to push Greece towards default as a negotiating tactic as being false. Lagarde did however say that in her view a coherent program for Greece was ‘still a good distance away’ and the weekend’s incident ‘has made me concerned as to whether we can indeed achieve progress in a climate of extreme sensitivity to statements of either side’.

Reversing gear now and quickly recapping that data from Friday. In terms of the March employment report in the US, headline non-farm payrolls printed at a slightly higher than expected 215k (vs. 205k expected). That follows a 245k reading in February which was revised marginally higher on Friday. That takes the Q1 average to 209k which compares to the average monthly reading of 229k in 2015. There was good news also in the average hourly earnings numbers which rose a greater than expected +0.3% mom (vs. +0.2% expected) last month, which has had the effect of lifting the YoY rate one-tenth to +2.3%. Meanwhile, the labour force participation rate edged up one-tenth to 63.0% (highest in two years) which was seen as causing the U-3 unemployment rate to nudge up one-tenth to 5.0%. There was also no change in average weekly hours worked at 34.4hrs after expectations had been for a slight increase.

Away from the employment numbers, the March ISM manufacturing print rose a better than expected 2.3pts last month to 51.8 (vs. 51.0 expected) which is the first reading greater than 50 since August last year. New orders (+6.8pts to 58.3) were a big standout in the data with that index alone at the highest level since November 2014. That said there was a slightly softer employment component in the data which was also evident in the payrolls data for the sector. It’s worth noting that tomorrow will see the confirmation of the March non-manufacturing index reading which is expected to rise to 54.1. Should that be the case, then the spread between the two last month of 2.3pts would be the least since December 2014 (when the spread was 2pts). Meanwhile, also of note on Friday was an upward revision to the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment print last month by 1pt to 91.0. The manufacturing PMI was also nudged up 0.1pts in the final read to 51.5, however there was less good news in the construction spending numbers in February when spending was said to have decreased -0.5% mom (vs. +0.1% expected). Finally, towards to the end of Friday we also saw some disappointment in the latest US vehicle sales numbers where sales were said to have fallen back to 16.5m saar in March from 17.4m in the prior month (expectations had been for little change). While the early Easter holiday period played a part, vehicle sales have now been in a downward trend since the recent high in October last year.

In terms of the price action, risk markets had initially weakened post the flow of economic data on Friday but that was quickly reversed and markets traded firmer right up until the closing the bell. The S&P 500 eventually finished with a +0.63% gain to kick off the new month which means the index gained +1.81% over the past week. Credit markets also had a strong session on Friday with CDX IG closing 3bps tighter. The Dollar was volatile but ultimately ended up flat on Friday which means the Dollar index was down a steep 1.72% last week, the second worst week this year. US Treasuries also chopped around but the end result being little change with the benchmark 10y currently sitting at 1.765% this morning. Comments from the Fed’s Mester added little to the recent debate with the Cleveland Fed President suggesting that she sees the US economy as evolving in a way that would mean rate hikes are appropriate this year, but refusing to comment on her thoughts on potential timing.

Interestingly, the moves for risk assets in the US on Friday came despite the backdrop of a steep leg lower for Oil markets. WTI ended the week with a -4.04% loss on Friday to close at $36.79/bbl (and is down further this morning) which is the lowest closing price since March 3rd. In fact prices are now down close to 15% from their highs of last month and ahead of the upcoming meeting between producers in Doha on the 17th of April, for which expectations of a positive outcome appear to diminishing quickly. Friday’s move seemingly came about on the back of comments from Saudi Arabia’s deputy Crown Prince who said that the nation will only freeze output should Iran follow suit. This of course comes following the remarks from Iran’s oil minister who downplayed the possibility of the nation freezing current production levels.

Those declines for Oil on Friday weighed most heavily on European equity markets where we saw the Stoxx 600 tumble -1.30%, despite a late effort to bounceback into the close. That concluded a third consecutive weekly decline for the index. Prior to that we had seen some supportive manufacturing PMI numbers in the region with the Euro area print in particular revised up 0.2pts at the final read to 51.6.

As usual we’ll also be keeping a close eye on the latest chatter out of Fed officials. Kashkari and Evans are due to speak on Tuesday with Mester on Wednesday. We then hear from Kaplan early on Thursday before Fed Chair Yellen is scheduled to speak in a discussion with Bernanke, Greenspan and Volcker on Thursday evening. The Fed’s George will speak on Friday. Over at the ECB we’ll hear from Praet and Constancio during the week, as well as ECB President Draghi on Thursday at a presentation in Lisbon.


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Pot Smokers at White House Protest Obama’s Disinterest in Reclassifying Marijuana

More than 100 people smoked pot outside the White House on Saturday to protest marijuana’s status as a Schedule I substance, the most restrictive category under the Controlled Substances Act (CSA). The protest was organized by the D.C. Cannabis Campaign, which sponsored the 2014 ballot initiative that legalized possession, home cultivation, and sharing of marijuana in the nation’s capital. The group is frustrated by President Obama’s failure to pursue administrative rescheduling of marijuana, despite his youthful cannabis consumption, his concession that marijuana is less dangerous than alcohol, and his mostly hands-off approach to state legalization. 

Schedule I is supposedly reserved for drugs with a high abuse potential that have no accepted medical use and cannot be taken safely, even under a doctor’s supervision. Although it is doubtful that marijuana meets any of those criteria, let alone all three of them, Obama has shown no interest in reclassifying it, insisting that such a decision requires action by Congress. 

That’s clearly not true. The CSA gives rescheduling authority to the attorney general, who has delegated that power to the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA). The DEA insists that marijuana must remain in Schedule I because it has no “currently accepted medical use,” which it says can be established only by the sort of large, expensive clinical trials that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) requires before approving a new medicine. While federal courts have deferred to the DEA’s interpretation of the CSA, the agency has discretion to change its mind.

Moving marijuana to a lower schedule—a step supported by the sponsors of the CARERS Act and the Democratic Party’s presumptive presidential nominee—would facilitate medical research and could resolve a big income tax headache for state-licensed marijuana merchants, who are currently barred from deducting business expenses. It would also send a signal that could affect the prospects for state medical marijuana legislation and medical defenses in criminal cases. But rescheduling would not automatically make marijuana legally available as a medicine, since any preparation that doctors could prescribe would first have to be approved by the FDA.

By contrast, descheduling marijuana—removing it entirely from the list of controlled substances—would effectively repeal national pot prohibition, allowing people to use the drug for medical or recreational purposes without violating federal law. That seems to be the goal that the D.C. Cannabis Campaign has in mind, since it called Saturday’s protest the “Emergency National Mobilization to Deschedule Cannabis.” Yet removing marijuana from the CSA’s schedules, as opposed to changing its classification, probably would require new legislation.

That’s because the CSA says “if control is required by United States obligations under international treaties, conventions, or protocols in effect on October 27, 1970, the Attorney General shall issue an order controlling such drug under the schedule he deems most appropriate.” Under the 1961 Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs, nonmedical production, distribution, and possession of cannabis are supposed to be criminalized.

That agreement, however, does not mean states are required to ban marijuana. The treaty says the obligations of signatories are subject to “constitutional limitations,” and the U.S. Constitution gives states the leeway to make their own decisions about whether to criminalize marijuana-related conduct. Even if the Single Convention did not include that exception, a treaty cannot trump the Constitution.

The issue of marijuana policy in the District of Columbia, a jurisdiction subject to direct control by Congress, is somewhat different. But despite grumbling from hardcore drug warriors, Congress has allowed legalization to take effect in its own backyard, even while blocking plans to license and regulate commercial production and distribution.

That forbearance helps explain why the mass show of civil disobedience at the White House on Saturday did not result in any arrests. Although public cannabis consumption remains illegal in D.C., it is a civil offense punishable by a $25 fine. ABC News reports that local police cited two protesters. Federal law allows arrests for possession and prescribes more severe penalties, but “a Park Police spokeswoman told ABC News that they had no jurisdiction over the demonstrators since they remained on Pennsylvania Avenue and did not enter the park area.” 

Reason TV covered the protest:

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Hiding from Opportunity

 

 

 

 

Hiding from Opportunity

Posted with permission and written by Jeff Thomas (CLICK FOR ORIGINAL)

 

 

Hiding from Opportunity - Jeff Thomas

 

 

 

“Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness.” – Alejandro Jodorowsky 

 

As a consultant on internationalisation, I regularly have occasion to advise people on the finer points of safeguarding their wealth and themselves from becoming casualties of declining governments.

It’s no secret that such governments have a decided inclination to legislate rapacious controls over their citizens, in the form of taxation, capital controls, confiscation and limitation over expatriation to less Orwellian jurisdictions.

In most cases, those seeking consultation have either already begun expatriating their wealth and/or themselves, or have made the decision to do so and are in the process of identifying those jurisdictions that may benefit them most. As such, they’re taking positive action to avail themselves of opportunitiesoutside their home jurisdictions.

However far along in the process one of them might be when they come to me, they’ve already gotten over the greatest obstacle – their own reluctance to decide to take action. Having done so, they’re already on the road to an improved life. Some will make better choices than others; some will succeed better than others; however, all will fare better than they would have, had they simply ignored the need to internationalise.

But, then we have the fellow in the photo above. He represents those who (often vehemently) claim that internationalisation is a useless pursuit, for one reason or another. I regret to comment that he and others like him far outnumber those who choose to take internationalisation action.


Introducing Homo Struthio

The Latin name for humans is Homo sapiens, which means, “man intelligent.” Since this may not be an appropriate appellation for the fellow above, we might instead call him, “Homo struthio”, the Latin for “man ostrich”.

And, in fact, I encounter Homo struthio often, but not as people who are already internationalising themselves. Usually their contact is in the form of emails, after having read my writings. Almost invariably, they take strong exception to any possibility that internationalisation effort might be beneficial. In reading their comments, I’ve gleaned some common attributes in them.

Homo struthio rarely ventures far from home. If he goes abroad at all, it’s likely that he does so as a tourist. You may have seen him at one time or another – staying at the American Marriott in Hong Kong, or ordering a viertel pfunder mit Käse (quarter pounder with cheese) in a McDonalds in Munich.

Homo struthio does his best to remain within the confines of the familiar. This may be out of habit, or fear that he’ll have a negative experience, but, in many cases, he’ll actually believe that his home country is the best one and that deviation from his home-country standard is almost certain to be a mistake.

 

We may see him as an English cruise-shipper in Majorca, complaining that there’s no Fullers London Pride on tap at the local cantina. Or he might be an American in Jamaica, receiving a bill for JMD $600 for a rum punch and asking, “How much is that in real money?” (This choice of phrasing not only occurs, but is common.)

 

But the point here is not to pick on either the UK or the US, or their people. The point is that, there are those countries where people have commonly become more insulated than in others – more likely to assume that anything outside of their home country is likely to be suspect, if not downright undesirable.

 

Returning to those responses mentioned above, here are a few of the most common reasons given by those who have either not travelled, or whose travels have been limited and they’ve concluded that internationalisation is folly:

 

“Yes, our economy is teetering on the edge of collapse, but what can you do? It’s the same all over.”

 

This is definitively incorrect. Many countries operate almost entirely independently from the EU, US, etc. and will be unaffected if crashes occur in those jurisdictions, just as they’re unaffected by present developments.

 

Further, there are other countries that do better each time the EU or US worsens. The reason is that, every time more money, industry or brainpower leaves those jurisdictions, it goes elsewhere, enriching the target country. (Historically, whenever some countries decline, others invariably rise.)

 

“My country is the most powerful one on earth. There’s no point in escaping to another country, since our military could squash that country like a bug.”

 

This is a common comment from people in the US, and Americans are indeed taught by their government and media that the US is all-powerful. But, the US has shown that it cannot seem to win in any of the countries it has invaded in recent decades, let alone take on more warfare successfully. (In Afghanistan, America’s longest war ever, the US has achieved virtually no progress against rag-tag groups of poorly-armed, poorly-trained sheepherders after some fifteen years and nearly one trillion dollars spent.)

 

Further, many of the countries that are doing well are allies of the US and the US is unlikely to invade them for the crime of being freer and more prosperous than the US.

 

“We’re very worried about the loss of rights we’re experiencing, but what if we try to leave and we’re not allowed to go?”

 

This question is becoming increasingly common. It’s also quite disturbing, as it suggests that the home country is increasingly threatening the freedom of movement of its people in an effort to trap them in. Whenever a country does this, it’s a sure sign that it would be better to exit sooner, rather than to attempt it later and possibly fail to escape.

 

“I’d never leave here. This is still the best country in the world.”

 

This observation, of course, is subjective. If someone perceives his home county to be the best one in the world, he most certainly should remain there. However, this comment is most often received from those who have not travelled much and therefore have no real understanding of the many opportunities that exist outside their home countries. In most cases, it’s a blind assumption, rather than an informed appraisal.

 

All the above arguments (and many more), which ensure a greater risk of loss of wealth and freedom at the hands of your home country, are flimsy at best, yet countless people throughout the EU, US, Canada and other declining countries stand firmly behind them, when the alternative of internationalisation is offered.

 

Not long ago, a friend of mind died of cancer. For years, whenever mutual friends would mention that they’d had a recent check-up, he would say, “I never go to doctors. Whatever they say is going to be bad news and I don’t want to hear it.” That position cost him his life. It could be said that this is another example of Homo Struthio logic, since he, too, avoided the pursuit of a solution to a problem until it became insurmountable.

 

Whenever we find ourselves taking a stubborn stand against the pursuit of opportunity, it’s likely to be because we simply don’t want to face the fact that we may well be facing a significant problem in the future. We don’t wish to say to ourselves, “I know I’m wrong, but I’m just going to shove my head in the sand.” We don’t want to have to admit that we may be being extremely foolish and short-sighted, so we justify our decision to ourselves by off-handedly discrediting the solution, and then, try not to think of it any further.

 

Whether it’s a question of saving our lives from a dreaded disease, or saving our wealth and freedom, the outcome will likely be better if we behave as Homo sapiens, rather than Homo Struthio.

 

 

Please email with any questions about this article or precious metals HERE

 

 

Hiding from Opportunity

Posted with permission and written by Jeff Thomas (CLICK FOR ORIGINAL)

 

 

Jeff Thomas is British and resides in the Caribbean. The son of an economist and historian, he learned early to be distrustful of governments as a general principle. Although he spent his career creating and developing businesses, for eight years, he penned a weekly newspaper column on the theme of limiting government. He began his study of economics around 1990, learning initially from Sir John Templeton, then Harry Schulz and Doug Casey and later others of an Austrian persuasion. He is now a regular feature writer for Casey Research’s International Man and Strategic Wealth Preservation in the Cayman Islands.

 

 


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