Month: April 2016

As the battle heats up between the presumptive nominees for President, the word-wars have begun. Following Hillary's "love Trump's hate" breaking-barriers speech last night, a seemingly calmer, friendlier Trump went after Hillary exclaiming that "the only thing she's got going is the woman's card…and the beautiful thing is that women don't like her." Trump added that he'll "do far more for women than Hillary Clinton will do," and that "if Hillary Clinton were a man, I don't think she'd get 5 percent of the vote."

 

As The Hill reports, Trump quickly pivoted from the primary to the general election and went after Clinton aggressively in his remarks.

"Hillary does not have the strength or stamina to deal with China or other things," Trump added.

 

Trump knocked the former secretary of State on women's issues and blasted her 2002 vote for the Iraq War.

 

"I’ll do far more for women than Hillary Clinton will do," he said.

 

"She will not be good with a military. She had her shot, and she raised her hand when it came to Iraq," he added.

 

"She's a flawed candidate," Trump said. "I think she's going to be much easier to beat than most of the 16 people I competed with."

But, as Liberty Blitzkrieg's Mike Krieger asks (and answers) – Can Trump Beat Clinton In New York (Spoiler Alert – Yes!).

One thing Clinton supporters remain in complete denial about (other than the fact most Americans who don’t identify as Democrats find her to be somewhere in between untrustworthy and criminal), is that a significant number of Sanders supporters will never vote for Hillary. Forget the fact that I know a few personally, I’ve noticed several interviews with voters who proclaim Sanders to be their first choice but Trump their second. Are they just saying this or do they mean it? I think a lot of them mean it.

 

– From the post: Why Hillary Clinton Cannot Beat Donald Trump

I continue to see Hillary Clinton as one of the most overrated political figures in American history, and Donald Trump as one of the most underrated. This is why I think “the experts” are wrong about the outcome of a potential Clinton vs. Trump showdown in the general election.

Hillary’s weaknesses are obvious. I’ve highlighted new shameless transgressions or scandals on these pages virtually every day for several months now. Furthermore, the fact that the grassroots campaign juggernaut known as the Sanders movement seemingly came out of nowhere, proves there’s a huge ideological vacuum on left just asking to be filled in light of Clinton’s neoconservative candidacy.

As far as Trump’s concerned, I’m of the view that his real genius is marketing and his tremendous force of personality. He’s not so much a brilliant businessman, as he is virtually peerless when it comes to selling himself to whomever he targets. While I don’t condone or respect such behavior, I do think a lot of what he said during the primary was carefully crafted rhetoric designed to appeal to a certain demographic in order to win the nomination. It worked. The fact that he knew exactly what to say, while most pundits kept expecting his frequent outbursts to bury him proves that he knew what he was doing, and exposed the pundits’ cluelessness.

If he ends up as the Republican nominee in the general election, he’ll analyze the American public as a whole, as opposed to merely registered Republicans, and he’ll campaign accordingly. Can he pull this off? If anyone can, he can. He’s a billionaire primarily because he is a genius at knowing exactly what people want and then selling himself to them.

With that out of the way, let’s get to the crux of this article. The question posed is; can Trump beat Clinton in New York? For this, I want to highlight a couple of paragraphs from The Week article, The Clinton Doomsday Scenario:

On first glance, everything seemed to go swimmingly for Hillary Clinton in New York last week, and foreshadowed a big Empire State victory for her in the general election. In the primary, she earned more than 1 million votes — nearly double the 525,000 of Donald Trump. Plus, she’s a Democrat. She’s a New Yorker. She’ll crush him there in the fall, right? And then sweep to victory in a massive electoral landslide unlike anything we’ve seen since 1984?

 

Well, possibly. Maybe even probably. But don’t bank on it.

 

Lots of pundits have posited that Trump could actually beat Clinton in New York. Most of them make a variant of two arguments: One, his appeal to white working class voters is strong; two: he’s more of a rough-and-tumble, born-and-bred New Yorker than she is, and has a stronger claim to the state. Both of these arguments are trivially true.

 

Furthermore, the New York primary was closed — no independents allowed — and because Democrats outnumber Republicans in New York state by a two-to-one margin, Hillary’s big vote total was exactly what one would expect her to get if she had the same level of organic support among Democrats as Trump did among Republicans.

 

There’s another caveat: Trump ran against two other candidates; Clinton ran against only one. That further dilutes the strength of her victory.

 

And another: Polls show that the independent voters who couldn’t vote because of New York’s primary rules would have supported either Trump or Bernie Sanders; very few would have chosen Clinton.

 

A final nugget from the exit polls: 20 percent of Sanders supporters say they’d support Trump in the fall over Clinton.

I believe the key to 2016 will be independents, which we learned earlier this year make up a massive 43% if the American public. Yes, it’s true that many of these “independents” lean toward one party or the other, but I’d argue Democratic-leaning independents are probably not big Hillary Rodham Clinton fans.

Never forget this chart when thinking about the general:

Most pundits will say the 2016 election is Hillary’s to lose. I see it the other way. Given the justified angst amongst the populace, and Donald Trump’s uncanny ability to read an audience and sell himself to it, I actually think this election is the Donald’s to lose.

Stay tuned.

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Submitted by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

The government has criminalized so many mundane activities that the average American unknowingly commits three felonies a day. That’s according to a study by Harry Silverglate, a civil liberties lawyer.

This happens, in part, because there are plenty of awful laws most Americans have never even heard of. One of the worst of these little-known laws is the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA).

FATCA is a U.S. law that forces every financial institution in the world to give the IRS information about its American clients.

Complying with FATCA is a huge financial and administrative burden, measured in hundreds of billions of dollars. It’s a paper shufflers dream come true.

This is why the vast majority of banks, brokerages, and other financial institutions outside of the U.S. shun American clients. This, in turn, makes it much more difficult to move capital outside of the U.S.

Combined with other costly, extraterritorial U.S. regulations, FATCA amounts to de facto capital controls.

FATCA also highlights something important. As history has shown, a government’s destructive measures usually follow a certain progression. The steps it takes as it becomes increasingly desperate are detailed in the graphic below.

FATCA helps reveal how far along the U.S. is at the moment.

This is the general pattern nations follow as their fiscal situations deteriorate. Understanding it can help you take practical steps to protect yourself.

1. Fiscal health of the country is in trouble. This is apparent when, even by the government's own phony official statistics, the country is in serious trouble. However, the government will still distract the masses with "bread and circuses," reassuring them that everything is fine.

 

2. Increasing regulations, inflation, taxes, and police state measures. The sheer amount of current and future U.S. government spending, coupled with disinterest in making any meaningful cuts, means that higher taxes and inflation are a mathematical certainty.

 

Thanks to a veritable mountain of rules, laws, regulations, and the ramping up of the War on Cash, the government can already essentially track and control every penny you earn, save, and spend.

 

Last, and most terrifying, are the near daily stories and YouTube videos illustrating a metastasizing police state.

 

3. Capital controls. Think of the government as a thief trying to steal your wallet as you (understandably) try to run away. With capital controls, the thief is trying to block all the exits so you can’t reach safe ground.

 

A government only uses capital controls when it’s desperate… when it can no longer borrow, inflate the currency, tax, or steal money in one of the “normal” ways.

 

In most cases, governments use capital controls in severe crises. Think financial and banking collapses, wars, or chronic economic problems. In other cases, they’re just a way to control people. It’s much more difficult to leave a country when you can’t take your money with you.

 

Regardless of the initial catalyst, capital controls help a government trap money within its borders. This way, it has more money to confiscate.

 

4. Broad wealth confiscation measures. After capital controls, governments often use a wide range of tactics to confiscate wealth. No matter the method, or what they call it, the net effect is always the same: The government grabs as much capital as it can.

 

These tactics might include official currency devaluation, an attack on precious metals (windfall profits tax, confiscation, nationalization), and government sanctioned theft of electronically held money, including bank and brokerage accounts (like the bail-in that happened in Cyprus a few years ago).

 

5. Nationalization of retirement savings. It's no secret that retirement accounts are a juicy target for any desperate government. The most common way to nationalize these accounts is to convert their assets into so-called "safer" government bonds. As with most government measures, this is sold as "for your own good."

 

We are already hearing whispers from the U.S. government about helping to "manage" retirement savings. This is code for converting retirement investments into U.S. treasuries.

 

6. Price and wage controls. It doesn't take a genius to see that price controls cause shortages—usually in food, energy, and basic necessities.

 

7. People controls. Restricting the movement of citizens is another tool in the desperate government's toolkit. Wealthy citizens are particularly worth trapping.

 

8. Wars to distract the populace. When all else fails, desperate governments tend to start conflicts to bolster blind nationalism and distract the populace from their failings. All governments treat their citizens like milk cows to varying degrees, but they start treating them like beef cows when they need soldiers for contrived wars.

 

9. Game over. Failed wars usually provide fertile soil for severe civil unrest, revolution, and the potential emergence of a strongman at the helm.

The good news for Americans is that there’s still time.

The U.S. has definitively reached stage 2. It hasn’t quite reached stage 3, full-blown capital controls… yet. But it’s not far off, since FATCA and other regulations essentially amount to de facto capital controls.

While you can still avoid getting boxed in, no one knows exactly how much time you have. Once a government implements official capital controls, your money is trapped, and things tend to unravel pretty quickly.

Developing a game plan now does not mean you have to immediately leave your home country. By opening a foreign bank or brokerage account remotely, it’s possible to achieve a certain level of political diversification without even leaving your living room.

This is the first step to immunizing yourself against the destructive measures a desperate government will eventually take. And it’s absolutely crucial.

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With millennials now the largest generation in the United States, a look into their economic standing is warranted. Using New York City as a proxy, we learn that millennials are now making 20% less than the generation before them, and have incurred tens of billions in student loan debt. Faced with these facts, they are searching for ways to cut down on expenses in order to make ends meet, and one common sense way to do that is to move back in with mom and dad.

The Chicago Tribune helps us understand how all of that is working out. To start, more than 20 percent of millennials are living with their parents, even after obtaining a college degree. Even if some are fortunate to move out, often times they boomerang back to their parents' home by age 27.

As such, stories such as the one from 34 year old Meghan Kennihan are becoming the norm, even in today's economic "recovery".

"I had an apartment in Chicago," said Meghan Kennihan, 34, a running coach and personal trainer who lives in her folks' finished basement in La Grange. "It was tiny and expensive. I was miserable. I moved back. Now, I have a bedroom plus an area for my scrapbooking hobby and another for my exercise equipment. It's like having my own apartment except I have more space than I can afford to have in an apartment."

In order to move out on her own, Meghan cites the need for an employer who can help cover her health insurance, something all of these newly created waiter and bartender jobs aren't able to do.

"To be able to buy my own place, I would need to work for an employer that would cover insurance for me"

 

Not only is there more space, but the price is right. Millennials have been able to save on rent, and are just trying to chip in other ways around the house where possible, as 24 year old Dean Pearce explains.

"My parents have done so much for me, and now they're letting me live here rent-free, so I try to help out. I pick up my sister from school, do the dishes or whatever chore needs to be done. My mom makes dinner. We all work as a team."

As a matter of fact, the trend of kids living at home with their parents has gotten so strong that home builders are now designing homes with just that in mind. "One out of six buyers have or plan to have a grown child at home" said Richard Bridges, Chicago division sales manager at David Weekly Homes. For a mere $35,000-plus, Richard says the plan can include a bedroom/bathroom suite in a finished basement to accommodate the kids who inevitably will be returning home to live.

Chicago area builder PulteGroup says in their new models, kids can enjoy a bedroom/bathroom suite with a kitchenette and separate living space. "Our NexGen option is the greatest in housing since indoor plumbing." said Jeff Roos, western regional president at Lennar Corp.

In summary, it looks like things are going well for kids who are moving back home, all things considered. Rent is affordable, and now parents are even taking it upon themselves to buy houses that have the look and feel of one's own personal apartment for their children to return home to someday. It is safe to say that this is quickly becoming the new American Dream for current and future generations.

The likelihood of this trend reversing course any time soon? Not likely. As Lennar Corp's Jeff Roos points out:

"It could be a while before the millennial makes enough money to leave"

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According to the Washington Post, Donald Trump is poised to receive more votes than anyone in Republican primary history.

With a number of states remaining including California, Trump is set to surpass current record holder George W. Bush, who received 10.8 million votes in 2000.

 

Part of the reason for this is that more voters are turning out to vote.

Here is how The Donald has fared in each state thus far

 

If you're a Trump supporter, you'll explain this by saying he is motivating people to get involved, and if you're not, you'd say it's simply due to the population growth. The Post goes on to also point out that while Trump will likely set the record for most total votes, he'll probably end up with the lowest percentage of the overall total vote since 1968.

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If yesterday it was doom and gloom for tech stocks, then today it’s Facebook’s turn for soom upside down frown turning boom. Moments ago the social network reported another round of blowout results, as follows:

• FACEBOOK 1Q REV. $5.38B, EST. $5.27B
• FACEBOOK 1Q ADJ. EPS 77C, EST. 63C
• FACEBOOK 1Q DAUS 1.09B, EST. 1.06B (2 EST.)
• FACEBOOK 1Q MAUS 1.65B , EST. 1.62B

Some more details on the user growth:

• Daily active users (DAUs) – DAUs were 1.09 billion on average for March 2016, an increase of 16% year-over-year.
• Mobile DAUs – Mobile DAUs were 989 million on average for March 2016, an increase of 24% year-over-year.
• Monthly active users (MAUs) – MAUs were 1.65 billion as of March 31, 2016, an increase of 15% year-over-year.
• Mobile MAUs – Mobile MAUs were 1.51 billion as of March 31, 2016, an increase of 21% year-over-year.

And the financials:

• Mobile advertising revenue – Mobile advertising revenue represented approximately 82% of advertising revenue for the first quarter of 2016, up from 73% of advertising revenue in the first quarter of 2015.
• Capital expenditures – Capital expenditures for the first quarter of 2016 were $1.13 billion.
• Cash and cash equivalents and marketable securities – Cash and cash equivalents and marketable securities were $20.62 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2016.
• Free cash flow – Free cash flow for the first quarter of 2016 was $1.85 billion.

Additionally, the company also announced that its board has approved a proposal to amend and restate our existing certificate of incorporation to create a new class of non-voting capital stock, known as the Class C capital stock.

As the company explains, “If the proposal is approved, we intend to issue two shares of Class C capital stock as a one-time stock dividend in respect of each outstanding share of our Class A and Class B common stock. This proposal is designed to create a capital structure that will, among other things, allow us to remain focused on Mr. Zuckerberg’s long-term vision for our company and encourage Mr. Zuckerberg to remain in an active leadership role at Facebook. The adoption of the proposal is subject to the approval of our stockholders at our 2016 Annual Meeting of Stockholders to be held on June 20, 2016, and the record date for the payment of the Class C stock dividend would be set by the board of directors at a later date. More information will be available on our Investor Relations site and in our forthcoming proxy statement to be filed today.”

Marc Zuckerberg added the following note to the earnings release:

Everything we do at Facebook is focused on our mission to make the world more open and connected.

 

To maintain our focus on this mission, we have always been a founder-led company. This structure has helped us resist the short term pressures that often hurt companies. It has helped us grow our community, build our business and create shareholder value. It has given us the freedom to prioritize your product experience and invest in new apps like Instagram — decisions that don’t always pay off right away, but that we believe help us serve our community and our shareholders.

 

When I look out at the future, I see more bold moves ahead of us than behind us. We’re focused not on what Facebook is today, but on what it can be, and what it needs to be for our community. That means investing in areas like spreading connectivity, building artificial intelligence and developing virtual and augmented reality. I am committed to our mission and to leading Facebook there over the long term.

 

While helping to connect the world will always be the most important thing I do, there are more global challenges that I feel a responsibility to help solve — like helping to cure all diseases by the end of this century, upgrading our education system so it’s personalized for each student, and protecting our environment from climate change. That’s why Priscilla and I created the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative and committed to give 99 percent of our Facebook shares during our lives to advance human potential and promote equality.

 

Today, Facebook’s board of directors is announcing a proposal to create a new class of stock that will allow us to achieve both goals. I’ll be able to keep founder control of Facebook so we can continue to build for the long term, and Priscilla and I will be able to give our money to fund important work sooner. Right now, there are amazing scientists, educators and doctors around the world doing incredible work. We want to help them make a bigger difference today, not 30 or 40 years down the road.

 

If this proposal goes into effect, we’ll get to keep improving your Facebook experience the way we do today. And over the long term, I think you’ll have better services and be part of a stronger community as a result. I believe in our community and the good we can do in the world, and I’m looking forward to continuing this journey with you.

The kneejerk reaction in the afterhours has been to send the stock just shy of all time highs and was trading up nearly 7%.

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As we predicted during our preview of Ted Cruz’s “big announcement” earlier today, the republican presidential candidate, in hopes of kickstarting his mathematically impossible to win campaign, is set to announce that Carly Fiorina will be his vice presidential nominee if he’s the Republican Party’s pick for president according to Politico.

Fiorina, a former Hewlett-Packard CEO, has been among Cruz’s most loyal and active surrogates since she ended her own 2016 GOP presidential bid after a poor finish in New Hampshire in February. The Cruz campaign deliberated over whether to pick Fiorina for the last two weeks, according to one person familiar with the move. It has polled the potential ticket, examining it for its prospective strengths and weaknesses.

The announcement, which was teased early Wednesday morning and will be made official Wednesday afternoon in Indianapolis, comes the day after Cruz suffered a drubbing at the hands of Donald Trump in five northeastern primaries — losses that mathematically eliminated Cruz from getting the 1,237 delegates he’d need to clinch the GOP nomination.

Cruz’s hopes now rest in a contested convention this summer in Cleveland, where the Texas senator would hope to stop Trump on the first ballot and then win in subsequent rounds of voting thanks to support from the loyal delegates his campaign has assiduously courted.

The hope within the campaign is that Fiorina will help Cruz in California, which will award 172 delegates on June 7. Fiorina is scheduled to give the keynote address at this weekend’s California Republican Party convention, speaking hours after Cruz takes the stage.

Judging by online betting markets such as PredicIt, which has Trump with now record high odds of securing the nomination at 81%, the gamble is doomed to fail.

Watch his announcement live below.

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Are you not entertained??

 

Commodity Carnage continues in China…

 

Nothing happened before The Fed (apart from a chaotic dip and rip in crude oil and bid for bonds all morning)…and then it hit…

 

Getting the S&P 500 to 2,100 was all that mattered after The Fed – becase that tells the world that everything is awesome!!

 

Tough day for Nasdaq (as AAPL and TWTR were twatted) but the crushing of VIX lifting all boats saved the day… AAPL knocked 48 points of The Dow today

 

On the week, Small Caps were squeezed once again to the highs as Nasdaq remains the laggard

 

FANG stocks had a tough day even with the post-Fed pump and panic buying effort to lift Nasdaq into the close…

 

The USD Index continued to drift lower while AUD's collapse overnight (after record low inflation) stands out among the majors…

 

 

Treasuries broke the longest losing streak since Sept 2014 today with 10Y Yields dropping 6bps after rising for 7 days straight.

 

This was the biggest drop in 3 weeks… as bonds rallied back from where they were at the March FOMC…

 

As 2s10s flattened dramatically…

 

Commodities were generally higher today as the dollar los more ground. Copper continued to slide as chinese commodity bubble bursts, PMs were flat tp sligfhtly higher but crude was total chaos…

 

F##k The Fundamentals…at least the ramp stopped at NYMEX close…for now

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg

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