Trump Tells McConnell “Go Nuclear” If You Have To

Donald Trump has made his first comments since nominating Judge Gorsuch for The Supreme Court, stating that “I don’t know how anyone can opposed Gorsuch” warning that if Congress ends up in gridlock, he would tell Majority leader Mitch McConnell to “go nuclear” – referring to a rule change enabling a simple majority to confirm his picks.

“He’s pefect in almost every way”…

As a reminder, the “nuclear option” refers to a move by the majority party in Senate — in this case the Democrats — to change the Senate rules to allow most executive branch and judicial nominations to be approved with a simple majority – 51 votes — rather than the 60 votes now required. Under longstanding rules, the minority party has been able to block a nomination with just 41 votes, commonly called a filibuster.

“I want Gorsuch to go through an elegant process, as opposed to a demeaning process… of course the press can be very demeaning too, so…”

 

Judge Gorsuch met with VP Pence And Leader McConnell earlier in the day…

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Meet the MSNBC Legal Eagle Who Proposes Destroying the Free Press

Ari MelberIt’s the early days of a presidency that has openly declared itself to be hostile to the media (and to be fair—the reverse is also true), and Ari Melber, MSNBC’s legal correspondent and a lawyer, has what he thinks to be a brilliant idea—let’s have the federal government get more involved in evaluating the legitimacy of news.

I’m not a big MSNBC viewer, but I’m fairly sure that they haven’t suddenly become big supporters Donald Trump’s presidency. That’s not what Melber is going on about. Rather, what Melber has suggested is that the federal government, particularly the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), can use its authority to protect consumers from fraudulent advertising claims in order to fight the existence of “fake news.” He suggests that by classifying disprovable media claims as fraudulent, the government has the authority to intervene. “Fraud” is not considered protected speech. He makes the case in a piece for the New Jersey State Bar Association:

To follow First Amendment precedents, the framework could limit the FTC to only regulating posted articles—not seeking prior restraints against future articles—and to only regulate businesses devoted to fraud news.

Legally, a focus on deceptive businesses keeps the FTC in the ballpark of commercial speech, patrolling deceptive practices taken in pursuit of commerce. During the election, the most popular fraud news sites were launched by business people, often abroad, enticed by the market online for political news. They were trying to make money, not express any particular view. …

Since these sites are clearly operating as businesses, it is logical to regulate their commerce and deceptive practices like any other business.

A focus on deceptive businesses would also keep the government away from meddling with actual journalists or citizens exercising their right to lie while engaged in politics.

Where to begin here. First of all most media outlets—whether legitimate or “fake”—are trying to make money, most were launched “by business people,” and many are not trying to express any particular view. But some are. “Making money” and “expressing any particular view” are neither opposing choices, nor or they determinants of the validity of the existence of a media outlet. And that a media outlet might be a venture designed to make money doesn’t mean it suddenly becomes exempt from the First Amendment protections that the government cannot censor the press.

But that’s just semantics (and frustration at people who work in the media who think they aren’t already engaged in acts of commerce). The much bigger, so much more important issue here is what it would actually look like were a government agency to decide that it can use a tool to fight consumer fraud to monitor the legitimacy of news.

We already saw what happened when the whole latest outburst about “fake news” happened during the election. People went looking for resources that separated “real” news from “fake” news and we ended up in a place where media outlets with heavily ideological slants were dumped in with media outlets that were deliberately making up stuff.

You don’t have to go very far to determine what could happen when a politicized apparatus (and every government agency is partly political) can have control over what can be defined as “fraud” when it comes to information. You don’t even have to leave this site! Several attorneys general for states across the country have teamed up to go after ExxonMobil for its participation in the larger debate over climate change. They have decided to attempt to prove that ExxonMobil knew more about what was going on with the burning of fossil fuels and the environment and deliberately attempted to mislead investors and customers. They are attempting to reclassify the debate (free speech) as deliberate consumer fraud (not free speech).

To do so, they’ve attempted to subpoena decades of communications between ExxonMobil and various policy groups in order to fish for information they hope will make that case. One of the policy groups targeted is the Reason Foundation, the nonprofit think tank that publishes Reason.com and Reason magazine. Reason was dragooned into a highly politicized case where government officials deliberately attempted to reclassify public debate as “fraud” in order to target a disliked business. One of the AGs involved, Kamala Harris, is now a United States senator.

Given Trump’s general attitude toward the press and his propensity to declare unflattering coverage to be fake or fraudulent, you don’t have to be either a lawyer or a journalist to recognize the very, very bad potential consequences of Melber’s proposal. Nobody should make the mistake of assuming that the FTC’s behavior would be a value-neutral analysis of truth vs. falsehood. Our government has an extremely lengthy history of applying regulatory pressure in ways that favor whoever is in power and the allies of said people.

Since the left these days is quick to point out the ties between Trump and Russia, let’s remind folks like Melber that Russia passed a law classifying discussions of gay relationships in the media (and the public) as propaganda and criminalized it, meaning that the government sees the concept of same-sex couples and families as a fraudulent proposal. If you give the government the power to decide what news is “fake,” you will create an environment where people will very quickly want to weaponize it for their own ends.

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California Mayor Says There’s ‘No Rational Justification’ For City’s Six-Figure Pensions

A few weeks back, I noted the story of James Mussenden, a retired city manager from El Monte, California.

A quick recap: in a town where more than a quarter of the population is living below the poverty line, and where the median household income is a mere $32,000, Mussenden is pulling down a $216,000 annual pension (along with free healthcare and annual cost of living increases). The Los Angeles Times uncovered Mussenden’s outrageous pension—which, as the paper reported, he feels awkward talking about with his golf buddies.

With retirement promises like that, it’s no surprise that El Monte is dealing with one of the worst pension crises in a state full of municipal pension messes. Last year, more than a quarter of the city’s budget was spent on benefits for retired public workers.

Now, Mayor Andre Quintero tells the Los Angeles Times that there’s “no rational justification” for the extraordinary pensions that are busting his city’s budget and enriching a few hundred former employees. Yet, because those benefits are written into the city’s collective bargaining agreements, he tells the Times that it can be undone only through negotiations with unions.

As the Times put it: “El Monte’s predicament reflects the deep difficulty of reining in public pension costs.”

Yes, but there’s more to it than that. El Monte’s “predicament,” like similar predicaments facing municipalities from coast to coast, is of its own making. City officials signed off on these generous pension benefits when they reached collective bargaining deals with public sector unions. El Monte’s pension problems are particularly acute because of a special loophole opened by the city in 2000 allowing El Monte city employees to qualify for a second pension as county employees too.

Some 200 former city employees, including Mussenden, are legally double-dipping because of that loophole.

The problem is one of incentives. Public sector unions have a strong incentive to get the best possible benefits for their members, of course. City officials are supposed to be negotiating on behalf of taxpayers, but often times they have a stronger incentive to give in to union demands in order to maintain labor peace or to reward valuable political allies who help keep election coffers filled.

The same story plays out in small cities like El Monte and big ones like Chicago.

Adding to El Monte’s predicament is the fact that courts in California (and most other states) have long held that pensions are locked-in and cannot be reduced even if a city is unable to meet the obligations.

That’s one thing that might be changing. The California Supreme Court will take up a case later this year challenging that long-standing legal framework—known as the “California Rule.” If the state Supreme Court upholds a lower court ruling (which upheld a pension reform signed by Gov. Jerry Brown in 2011) saying that says municipalities can cut unearned benefits for future employees, it would give places like El Monte a little bit of flexibility when it comes to paying off their debt.

Even if the Supreme Court upholds the reform, it won’t affect already-retired workers like Mussenden, who will get to keep cashing his six-figure pension checks until he dies.

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Russia Denies Shooting at Ukrainian Military Plane In Black Sea

With the US State Department in a state of protracted hiatus for the time being, tensions are again rising between Russia and Ukraine, and especially in East Ukraine, where over the past few days the number of soldiers killed in an offensive by pro-Russian separatists has reportedly risen to seven, Ukraine’s military said on Monday, in the deadliest outbreak of fighting in the east of the country since mid-December.

The clashes between Ukraine’s military and the pro-Russian separatists coincide with U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for better relations with Moscow that has alarmed Kiev while the conflict in its eastern region remains unresolved. According to Ukraine sources, the rebels began attacking government positions in the eastern frontline town of Avdiyivka on Sunday. Five soldiers were killed and nine wounded on Sunday and two more were killed on Monday, they said.

“The situation in the Avdiyivka industrial zone is challenging. The enemy continues to fire at our positions with heavy artillery and mortars,” Ukrainian military spokesman Oleksandr Motuzyanyk told a regular daily briefing. Naturally, since the media on both sides is clearly biased in its coverage, it came as no surprise that both local separatists news agencies, and Russia, denied escalation had occurred.

In the meantime, it appears that whether real or fabricated, the push to escalate another conflict is building, and on Wednesday, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry said that a Ukrainian An-26 transport plane came under rifle fire from a Russian drilling rig while flying near the Odessa gas field in the Black Sea. The plane was allegedly involved in drill over Black Sea, and was flying in Ukrainian air space.

“A Ukrainian transport plane came under fire today while flying over the Ukrainian maritime economic zone during a training mission. The crew members were not injured,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak reported to President Petro Poroshenko as cited by Poroshenko’s press secretary Svyatoslav Tsegolko.

Moments later, as expected, the Russian Black Sea Fleet categorically denied these claims.

“All Ukrainian claims of the alleged shooting at the An-26 plane are absolute lies,” an official from the Black Sea Fleet’s headquarters said in a statement. According to the statement, the Ukrainian An-26 military plane carried out on Wednesday afternoon two provocative approaches at extremely low altitude to Russia’s Tavrida and Crimea-2 drilling platforms.

“During the plane’s second approach, a security guard at one of the platforms fired four signal flares to prevent a possible collision of the plane with the platform’s mast,” the official stressed.

The news comes amid the joint naval drills of the seven North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member states with the Ukrainian Naval Forces in the Black Sea, which started on Wednesday.

Moreover, the situation near the industrial town of Avdiivka and neighboring Yasynuvata has been tense for several days, with civilians being deprived of running water, central heating and electricity. The Ukrainian forces and Donbass militia are accusing each other of being responsible for escalation of fighting.

With the ongoing political power vacuum in the US, it is a possibility that the dormant conflict between Russia and Ukraine is rekindled in the coming days.

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Trade Setup Lesson – FOMC Day (Video)

By EconMatters


We discuss a common setup used throughout the years to make money in Financial Markets revolving around the FOMC Day in this Trading Video. Thanks (AAPL) for the nice lead-in for this tried and true opening trade setup in markets.

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Trump’s AG Pick Sessions Approved By Senate Committee

Despitre relentless obstructionism by Democrats, a Senate committee voted to confirm Jeff Sessions to be the next US attorney general on Wednesday, two days after the growing controversy surrounding President Trump’s travel ban on seven Muslim nations led to the firing of the acting AG for “betrayal.” Sessions’ nomination now goes to the Senate floor, where he is expected to be confirmed easily given the GOP’s 52-seat majority.

The confirmation vote came as Senate Democrats have sought to block other Trump nominees, including Steve Mnuchin, Tom Price, and Scott Pruitt.

The Alabama senator’s path to confirmation was made more complicated by Trump’s firing of acting Attorney General Sally Yates, who deemed the president’s order illegal and said she would not have Justice attorneys defend it.  Committee Democrats on Tuesday praised Yates for her actions and accused Sessions of helping Trump draft the order, a claim Committee Chair Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) denied.

“I’m not sure if it would be a problem even if he was involved,” he said during his opening marks. “The fact of the matter is he was not involved.”

Democrats have fiercely criticized by Trump’s order and Yates’s firing, and said that any vote for Sessions is a vote to let Trump stifle dissent in his Justice Department. They used a procedural move to stall a planned vote on Sessions on Tuesday. Trump quickly replaced Yates with Dana Boente, the U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia. He rescinded the Yates order and said Justice will defend the executive order.

Democrats have questioned whether Sessions would stand up to Trump the way Yates did Monday when faced with seemingly unconstitutional orders. “What is so tragically apparent here is Trump is unwilling to consider the legal reasons Sally Yates stood her ground and why that position now more than ever deserves someone who will stand for the rule of law and constitutional principle,” said Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.).

The committee vote, which Democrats delayed last week, follows two days of confirmation hearings in which Sessions defended his record on civil rights addressed head-on charges that he’s made racially insensitive remarks about African Americans.

As The Hill notes, civil rights groups have been pushing Democrats to reject the Alabamian who lost a confirmation fight in 1986 for a federal judgeship over those claims, and lawmakers seized the opportunity over two days of hearings to question him about his remarks as well as his record on voting rights. “I do not harbor those kinds of animosities and race-based ideas I was accused of,” Sessions said when questioned by Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.)

Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) even broke Senate tradition and became the first sitting senator to testify against another sitting senator chosen for a Cabinet post. 

 

Booker argued that Sessions has not proven he can uphold the responsibilities of an attorney general, namely ensuring equal rights for all Americans.

That said, Sessions’ confirmation which is now headed to the Senate, is almost assured.  Sessions, who is well liked by his GOP colleagues, is assured to have the 50 votes he needs to get confirmed with Republicans holding a 52-seat majority.

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Gorsuch Defends Illegal Immigrant’s Rights, and Progressives Are Appalled

People for the American Way (PFAW) cites Gutierrez-Brizuela v. Lynch, a 2016 decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 10th Circuit, as evidence that Neil Gorsuch is unfit for the Supreme Court. Meanwhile, in a New York Times op-ed piece, Neal Katyal, a solicitor general in the Obama administration, cites the same case as an illustration of “Why Liberals Should Back Neil Gorsuch.” These diametrically opposed takes show why it is hazardous to view constitutional law as a battle between liberals and conservatives.

PFAW does not like Gorsuch’s questioning of the Chevron doctrine, which says courts should defer to executive agencies’ interpretations of ambiguous statutes, even to the point of reversing prior judicial interpretations. “Eliminating this principle…would tie the hands of precisely those entities that Congress has recognized have the depth and experience to enforce critical laws, safeguard essential protections, and ensure the safety of the American people,” PFAW says. It neglects to mention that Gutierrez-Brizuela involved immigration law, and Gorsuch came down on the side of a longtime resident trying to legalize his presence in the United States. Sounds kinda liberal, no?

The decision dealt with an apparent conflict between two provisions of immigration law. One gives the attorney general “discretion to ‘adjust the status’ of those who have entered the country illegally and afford them lawful residency.” The other “provides that certain persons who have entered this country illegally more than once are categorically prohibited from winning lawful residency…unless they first serve a ten-year waiting period outside our borders.”

In 2005 the 10th Circuit ruled that the first provision supersedes the second, so even residents who have illegally entered the country more than once can still obtain legal status without waiting 10 years outside the United States. Two years later, the Board of Immigration Appeals (BIA), an administrative agency, decided the second provision limits the attorney general’s discretion, meaning the waiting period is unavoidable. In a 2011 case, the 10th Circuit acceded to the BIA’s interpretation, as required by the Chevron doctrine.

Last year’s case involved an unauthorized immigrant, Hugo Rosario Gutierrez-Brizuela, who petitioned for a change of status before the new interpretation was adopted. In the majority opinion, Gorsuch noted that applying the new interpretation retroactively would not only violate the usual rules of statutory construction but raise “due process and equal protection concerns,” since immigrants who had made decisions based on the previous interpretation would suddenly have the rug pulled out from beneath them:

After all, back in 2009 the law expressly gave Mr. Gutierrez-Brizuela two options: he could seek an adjustment of status…or accept a ten-year waiting period outside the country. Relying on binding circuit precedent, he chose the former path. Yet the BIA now seeks to apply a new law to block that path at a time when it’s too late for Mr. Gutierrez-Brizuela to alter his conduct. Meaning that, if we allowed the BIA to apply Briones here, Mr. Gutierrez-Brizuela would lose the seven years he could’ve spent complying with the BIA’s ten year waiting period and instead have to start that waiting period now. The due process concerns are obvious: when Mr. Gutierrez-Brizuela made his choice, he had no notice of the law the BIA now seeks to apply. And the equal protection problems are obvious too: if the agency were free to change the law retroactively based on shifting political winds, it could use that power to punish politically disfavored groups or individuals for conduct they can no longer alter.

Gorsuch also wrote a concurring opinion, and that is where he directly challenged the Chevron doctrine, which PFAW presumably would argue was unnecessary to resolve the issue of retroactivity. But in the concurring opinion Gorsuch emphasized that Chevron deference endangers liberty by weakening the separation of powers, under which Congress passes laws, the executive branch enforces them, and courts decide disputes about their meaning. “The founders considered the separation of powers a vital guard against governmental encroachment on the people’s liberties, including all those later enumerated in the Bill of Rights,” he wrote. “A government of diffused powers, they knew, is a government less capable of invading the liberties of the people.” Giving one agency the power to interpret and rewrite the law as well as enforce it poses a clear threat to people at the agency’s mercy, including highly vulnerable people like Gutierrez-Brizuela.

Here is how Katyal, who notes that he and Gorsuch “come from different sides of the political spectrum,” describes the judge’s position in Gutierrez-Brizuela and an earlier immigration case that addressed a similar issue:

Judge Gorsuch ruled against attempts by the government to retroactively interpret the law to disfavor immigrants. In a separate opinion in Gutierrez-Brizuela, he criticized the legal doctrine that federal courts must often defer to the executive branch’s interpretations of federal law, warning that such deference threatens the separation of powers designed by the framers. When judges defer to the executive about the law’s meaning, he wrote, they “are not fulfilling their duty to interpret the law.” In strong terms, Judge Gorsuch called that a “problem for the judiciary” and “a problem for the people whose liberties may now be impaired” by “an avowedly politicized administrative agent seeking to pursue whatever policy whim may rule the day.” That reflects a deep conviction about the role of the judiciary in preserving the rule of law.

Critics of Gorsuch should not be taken seriously if they can’t recognize (or refuse to acknowledge) the ways that “conservative” convictions can achieve liberal ends.

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Noontime Radio With Justin Amash, Damon Root, Jimmy Failla, and Tony Pierce

From 12-1 ET today, like yesterday, I’ll be guest-hosting The Dean Obeidallah Show on SiriusXM Insight, channel 121. Sitting with me throughout the show will be the very funny cabby-turned-comedian Jimmy Failla, who, along with world-famous busblogger (and Uber/Lyft driver) Tony Pierce, will have a spirited discussion in the back half of the show about the whole #DeleteUber reaction to the ride-sharing company not participating in the New York Taxi drivers’ mini-strike in protest of Donald Trump’s executive order on worldwide refugees and travelers from seven other countries.

But in the first half we’ll have Reason‘s own beloved Supreme Court analyst Damon Root talking about the judicial philosophy of SCOTUS nominee Neil Gorsuch, and then (voting schedule willing!) we’ll talk to Rep. Justin Amash (R-Mich.) about where he stands on the travel ban here on Day 6.

Please call in, especially during the second half, at 1-877-974-7487!

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This ancient city would still be among the wealthiest in the world today

In the year 440 BC, more than two decades into the reign of Pericles, an audit of treasury in Athens showed a massive surplus of more than 9700 “talents”.

A talent was a common unit of measurement in the ancient world, especially for gold and silver.

And, based on today’s precious metals prices and the traditional gold/silver ratio (14:1) used by the ancient Greeks, 9700 talents is equivalent to about $700 million today.

At the time, Athens boasted a population of around 43,000 citizens and 28,500 foreign residents… so on a “per capita” basis, the ancient Athenian surplus amounted to just under $10,000 per person in today’s money.

If you compare this figure to our modern world, it’s pretty extraordinary.

Modern China, despite all of its incredible wealth and savings, has a total surplus that amounts to less than $1,200 per person.

The United States doesn’t even have a surplus.

So ancient Athens was actually far wealthier than just about every country in our modern world.

Today things are obviously quite different for Greece.

With one of the highest debt levels on the planet, Greece is once again on pins and needles waiting for another bailout.

It’s almost comical how this cycle has repeated for nearly a decade. It goes something like this:

Greece’s government almost runs out of money and becomes very close to defaulting on its debt.

Markets panic. Newspapers pump the Greek default story for weeks. Greek citizens spill out into the streets to protest.

Then Germany, the IMF, or the European Central Bank swoops in at the last minute with a tiny bailout that’s just barely enough for Greece to limp along for a little while longer.

And then everyone forgets about it as if the problem is solved… until it resurfaces again in 9-18 months and the entire process repeats.

So we’re right back in familiar territory: Greece is running out of money and the government is desperate for another bailout.

It’s an absurd situation. And even the institutions who provide the bailout money are starting to realize it.

According to a number of internal IMF memos that have been leaked to the press, the Greek debt situation is “unsustainable” and a “disaster”, and they project that there is no chance for Greece to grow its way out of debt.

It’s pretty obvious– even the IMF knows that these bailouts only delay the inevitable.

Like all bankrupt governments, Greece has very few options.

Default is a given; they’ll either have to default on their creditors, i.e. people who were silly enough to loan money to a bankrupt government. . .

… or they’ll have to default on the promises they made to their citizens, like pension payments and even public services.

Once a country defaults, international financial markets adopt a “fool me twice, shame on me” mentality, so Greece will find it very difficult to borrow money.

This means that the government will have to resort to another common tactic in order to make ends meet: printing money.

Of course, Greece doesn’t have control over its printing press right now since it’s officially part of the eurozone.

So Greece will first have to exit the euro… after which they can print as much worthless paper as they want.

Needless to say this currency debasement has the disastrous effect of causing nasty inflation that steals people’s purchasing power.

The final tactic common to bankrupt governments is plundering the wealth of citizens through capital controls.

Given that Greece already took steps to lock down people’s bank accounts in 2015, this is already happening.

Sure, it’s possible that the IMF provides yet another short-term bailout soon, and that this comical cycle repeats itself in a few months.

But whether the inevitable happens this time around or next is irrelevant. Greece’s long-term trajectory is pretty clear.

Naturally this raises an important question: when a country’s future most likely involves default, inflation, capital controls, and financial crises, does it make any sense to keep the majority of your wealth and savings there?

What’s the point of keeping funds in the Greek banking system if they’re just going to freeze you out of your account in the name of economic security?

By the way, this rationale is the same for ANY bankrupt country, not just Greece.

Italy. Portugal. Even the United States. These countries ALL have “net debt” levels in excess of 100% of GDP, and it gets worse every year.

Consider this: last year the US economy grew a tepid 1.6%. Yet at the same time the national debt grew 5.5%– and that was a “good” year.

How sustainable is it that the debt levels keep growing faster than the economy itself?

It’s not unpatriotic to look at objective, publicly available data and question whether that trend is really risk free.

After all, it seems ludicrous to assume that these governments can continue to accumulate debt forever without consequence.

And it’s hard to imagine that you’ll be worse off keeping a small rainy-day fund somewhere with better fundamentals.

Despite most of the world being saddled with excessive debt, there are still a handful of creditor nations like Singapore or Hong Kong with enviable surpluses that surpass even ancient Athens.

If moving funds abroad seems too complex (trust me, it’s not), an even easier option is keeping physical cash in a safe at your home, along with some internationally recognized precious metals like Canadian Maple Leaf gold and silver coins.

There’s very little downside in having a Plan B and ensuring that you have a small emergency fund that’s outside the control of a bankrupt government.

Even if nothing bad happens, you won’t be worse off.

But should more dangerous scenarios inevitably unfold, these simple steps can make a world of difference.

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