Month: September 2018

“This Is War”: Michael Moore Compares Trump To Hitler In New Documentary

Filmmaker Michael Moore has compared President Trump to Adolf Hitler in his new documentary, “Farenheit 11/9” which premiered Thursday at the Toronto International Film Festival to a sold-out audience. 

“Fahrenheit 11/9” takes its title from the early hours of Nov. 9, 2016, when Republican candidate Trump was officially declared the victor over Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton. –Bloomberg

Moore, whose last documentary accidentally helped Trump win the 2016 election by delivering an unintentionally inspiring speech, superimposed Trump’s words over video of Hitler speaking at rallies, as the liberal activist narrates about the rise of strong men to positions of power. 

“We explore the question of how the hell we got in this mess and how do we get out of it,” Moore told reporters before the film’s screening. 

“He’s (Trump) been around for a long time and we’ve behaved in a certain way for a long time and when you look back now you can see how the road was paved for him.”

Indeed: 

Moore says his new film is a call to action for Americans.

“We are in a war to get our country back,” he said. “Anyone who doesn’t understand that is going to be sorely disappointed in the results of what’s about to happen in the next few years with Donald Trump.”

Moore suggests that Trump’s 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton was due to widespread overconfidence that she would win, “vested interests,” and a US media which showcased Trump’s big audiences (when in fact Trump spent virtually the entire election chiding CNN and other networks for not showing the size of his crowds). 

Moore spent most of last year doing a one-man Broadway show in which he ranted about Trump while encouraging liberals to turn their anger and hatred of Trump into resistance. 

In June, he told the Late Show‘s Stephen Colbert that “wimpy and weak” Democrats need to “rise up” and resist Trump by putting their “bodies on the line.” 

Moore, who says he “cries every single day when he watches the news,” initially stressed “We don’t have to be violent, we have to remain non-violent,” only to later ask “When are people going to get off the couch and rise up?” – adding:

“Sadly, Trump is not going to leave … He plans to be re-elected, he loves the term ‘president for life.’ The only way that we’re going to stop this is eventually we’re all going to have to put our bodies on the line. You’re going to have to be willing to do this.”

After Moore’s Toronto premiere, the filmmaker appeared on stage with several Florida school students who have participated in nationwide protests advocating for stricter gun laws. 

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Iowa Eye Surgeon Wants to Open His Own Clinic. For 14 Years, His Competitors Have Stopped Him.

It’s been 14 years since Lee Birchansky first sought to open a cataract surgery center in Iowa. Today a federal court will finally hear the doctor’s challenge to the law that let his competitors keep him out of business all that time.

Birchansky is one of four plaintiffs—the others are a second doctor and two patients—challenging the constitutionality of Iowa’s Certificate of Need (CON) laws, which require that the state approve the opening of new medical facilities. These laws are supposed to protect patients by preventing medical providers from clustering services in certain areas while leaving others underserved, but in practice they limit the supply and raise the price of health care. Powerful special interests, such as hospitals, often use them to limit competition.

That’s what happened to Birchansky, who’s been unable to get the state’s permission to do cataract surgery in his fully equipped Cedar Rapids office. Hundreds of thousands of dollars of medical equipment sits unused because nearby hospitals objected to his clinic.

The kicker is that Birchansky worked for six years in the exact same facility and the state had no problem with that. Before setting off on his own in 2004, Birchansky operated on patients as part of an agreement with a local hospital. Under a weird loophole in Iowa’s CON laws, existing CON-holders are allowed to expand and open new facilities without seeking new permission from the government.

The existence of that loophole—which blatantly favors existing medical providers over new competitors, without any benefits for patients when it comes to the safety or availability of medical care—is at the center of Birchansky’s lawsuit. The plaintiffs are represented by the Institute for Justice, a libertarian law firm (where, full disclosure, my significant other is employed).

“Through its loophole for existing health care facilities, Iowa’s certificate of need scheme unconstitutionally favors existing businesses at the expense of our clients and other medical providers while also limiting the rights of Iowans to access safe, convenient, and cost-effective medical care,” says Darpana Sheth, the attorney who will argue the plaintiffs’ case.

While Iowa’s laws are particularly onerous, 35 states have CON statutes of some sort on the books. Though primarily focused on health care, some state-level CON laws require permission to start moving companies or taxi businesses.

The consequences are always the same: These laws benefit special interests and limit competition. Patients end up losing. In a 2016 paper published by the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, Thomas Stratmann and Davild Wille show that hospitals in states with CON laws have higher mortality rates than hospitals in non-CON states. The average 30-day mortality rate for patients with pneumonia, heart failure, and heart attacks in states with CON laws is between 2.5 percent and 5 percent higher even after demographic factors are taken out of the equation.

Sometimes, those costs are acute. A Reason investigation last year showed how Carilion Clinic, a major hospital in Roanoke, Virginia, used the state’s CON licensing process to stop a nearby hospital from building a neo-natal intensive care unit. Even after a premature infant died at the second hospital, the Virginia Department of Health (at the urging of Carilion’s executives) refused to grant permission.

In Iowa, two local hospitals have worked together to block Birchansky’s applications—four of them—to open his own surgery center. In a statement to the Cedar Rapids Gazette, Birchansky said it was “ridiculous” that the state would prevent him from seeing patients in a surgery center “that is already built, already equipped and all ready to go.”

The hospitals have also blocked reforms to the state’s CON system. As Reason has previously reported, Iowa hospitals successfully killed a proposal backed by Gov. Terry Branstad that would have exempted several medical services—including surgical centers and medical imaging clinics—from the CON process.

Perhaps Friday’s court case will accomplish what Iowa’s governor and legislature have failed to do. Maybe, after 14 years of trying, Birchansky is a little bit closer to being able to use his surgical skills to improve a patient’s life.

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Stocks Cycle Downward Right On Schedule

Submitted by Dana Lyons’ Tumblr

Since working off its early year correction, the U.S. stock market has been on one of those inexorable runs that we’ve seen on so many occasions in recent years. Such runs have seen the market essentially steamroll any and all potential pitfalls that may arise. This recent run has been no exception as the stock rally has basically remained bulletproof to any exogenous hazards (real or fake). But just when the market is on this roll, even breaking out to new highs and apparently incapable of going down, a bout of selling strikes, seemingly out of nowhere. However, if we look a little deeper, perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised by the recent weakness.

The Presidential Cycle refers to the pattern of behavior in stock prices throughout the four years of a presidential term. Specifically, stocks tend to be strong during certain periods of a president’s term and weaker during others. And while there are many factors influencing stock prices during a particular period of a particular presidential term, the cycle has been one of the more historically consistent seasonal patterns.

This may be relevant to the current weakness because, on average, the worst performing month of the cycle, historically, has been September of year 2, i.e., the current month.

As the chart shows, since 1900, September of year 2 of the Presidential cycle has returned an average of -1.43%, slightly worse than September of year 3, February and September of year 1 and May of year 4.

Again, there are many factors that determine the market’s return in a particular month. And returns for a particular month in a particular year will not always match its historical average. That’s what makes an “average”. But to the extent that any month of the cycle can be relied upon to be weak, it is this September of the 2nd year of the Presidential cycle.

But just how reliable is it? And does the market’s recent level of conformity to the historical cycle enhance the pattern’s reliability? And to the extent that it does, what does it imply about the market’s potential path going forward?

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Dallas Cop Walks Into Wrong Apartment, Kills Man Inside

A Dallas man was killed in his own home last night by a police officer who mistakenly entered his apartment thinking it was her own.

The officer, who has not been named, had just returned to her apartment complex after working a full shift, according to statement from Dallas Police. She told officers who responded to the shooting “that she entered the victim’s apartment believing that it was her own,” the statement says.

It’s not clear how the situation escalated, but at some point the officer fired her weapon and hit the man. The victim, identified as 26-year-old Botham Shem Jean, was taken to Baylor University Medical Center and later pronounced dead. The officer was not injured.

Dallas Police are conducting a joint investigation into the shooting with the Dallas District Attorney’s Office.

The officer has been placed on administrative leave, police say. Her short-term fate isn’t particularly surprising, given that getting paid not to work is a pretty common “consequence” for officers involved in controversial shootings.

According to The Washington Post, nearly 700 people have been fatally shot by police in 2018. Bowling Green State University professor Phil Stinson said last month that just 90 cops involved in fatal shootings have faced criminal charges since 2005.

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“Even Diapers Are Scarce”: Iran’s Rial Plummets To Record Low Amid Economic Carnage

An on the ground report by the Associated Press details the disastrous effects of the Iranian rial’s continuing slide as it hit a record low starting Wednesday: residents in Tehran are frantically lining up outside money changing offices, diapers and many basic staples have disappeared from store shelves, and hard currency only is being demanded even to book an airline ticket. 

The rial has this week plummeted 140 percent since the United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal a mere four months ago in May.

Local and international reports indicate that on Wednesday the national currency began trading at over 150,000 rials to $1USD in the currency exchange shops of Tehran.

Image source: TIMA via Al Monitor

As the AP reports, “Those who went to work at the start of the Iranian week on Saturday saw their money shed a quarter of its value by the time they left the office on Wednesday.” There’s a sense of nervousness and panic in the air according to the report, with a rush to find black market money changers on the streets, even though state media has yet to acknowledge just how low the true value of the rial has fallen. 

Meanwhile Iran’s top leadership continues to lash out at Washington for stripping common citizens of their daily needs. In a speech over the past weekend Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, condemned the US sanctions as economic “sabotage” while making specific mention of diaper shortage.

Via the WSJ

“Imagine that in Tehran or other major cities, baby diapers suddenly become scarce. This is happening, this is real, this is not make-believe. Baby diapers!” Khamenei said, according to the official state transcript. “This makes people angry. On the other side, the enemy wants people to be angry with the government and system. This is one of their ways.”

Domestic diaper companies rely on some 70% imported raw material to produce their diapers. Purchasing the material from abroad while the rial simultaneously crashes has left over ten diaper producers on the verge of bankruptcy. 

Currency exchange office, Tehran, via AFP

Middle East news and analysis site Al-Monitor details the crisis, which is being echoed across multiple other major industries which in the past could be relied on to supply lower and middle class families with cheap products: 

Iran’s diaper needs are met by both imports and domestic manufacturers.

The recent increase in prices has been blamed on the devaluation of the national currency as well as hoarding by some distributors of imported brands. Union leaders also say a lack of raw materials has led to a production halt at several diaper factories in the country. “At least 10 Iranian diaper producers are on the verge of bankruptcy,” Seyyed Hossein Dokmehchi told Iran Labor News Agency.

Adding to manufacturer’s woes is the fact that when the bulk of such raw materials get stuck in customs offices, companies must deal in official rates of the Central Bank of Iran. 

As Al-Monitor explains, Iranian manufacturing companies now lose the moment they import the goods: 

They had registered their orders based on the official exchange rate of 42,000 rials per dollar, per recent directives issued by the Central Bank of Iran for essential goods. Now the importers are required to pay a margin calculated on a secondary rate for the importation of non-essential goods. That rate stands at around 90,000 rials per dollar, far higher than the rate extended to prioritized imports, but lower than the open market of around 14,000 rials per greenback.

Meanwhile on the streets of Tehran money-change office began shuttering their shops once the rial began reaching upward of 150,000 to the dollar. 

Those that have remained open are requiring citizens to show airline tickets for travel abroad as proof the foreign currency is for travel. 

Parliament has reportedly been considering a plan to distribute subsidized goods to meet Iranians’ basic needs, with lawmakers announcing they’ve allocated $13 billion for commodities and medicine and a further $6 billion to help the poor.

As quoted by the AP, budget head Mohammad Bagher Nobakht lamented of what’s to come, describing a future of “long queues in front of the shops, like money exchange houses, that can create an ugly scene in the city alleys and streets.” But it appears Tehran is already deep in the midst of this, and such scenes will only get worse. 

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Tiny Pods For Poor People Sparks Outrage In Spain

A Barcelona company announced that it is constructing an apartment complex that will house tiny pods spread over a small space, but city officials have said the builder will not be issued a license for the project — calling the tiny accommodation unfit for humans.

Haibu 4.0, the architecture firm behind the project, wants to build tiny pods where low-income workers would live side-by-side like bees in a hive for about 200 euros ($232) a month. The inspiration for the project stems from hotels in Japan, where tourist sleep in pods that contain only a bed and television (jail cells were probably also a muse for the project).

The company stands behind the project, indicating it is a solution to the affordable housing crisis in the Mediterranean city. Barcelona city hall officials have already declined to issue a license for the project, citing that the project’s surface area is too small and says overcrowding is illegal.

“Fortunately piling up people is prohibited. The law does not allow this type of dwelling,” Barcelona mayor Ada Colau, a former housing and anti-eviction activist, told reporters on Thursday.

Without a license, the company has defied city officials and started building the first eight pods which it expects to complete in late September. Each pod measures about 2.4 square meters (21.5 square feet) and will be furnished with a bed, flat screen television, storage space and power plugs, similar to the capsules geared for tourists in Japan.

The small housing complex will host a communal area with a kitchen, lounge and bathrooms, and the monthly rent will cover all utilities. The company’s website says that housing is restricted to those aged 25-45 who have a minimum salary of 450 euros a month. Already, 500 people have shown interest in renting pods, according to the company.

“We are not thinking about this as the housing of the future, but if we look around, we see people who are struggling financially,” said Edi Wattenwil, one of the partners at Haibu 4.0. “My partners and I thought it would be a good idea to create this kind of apartment so that people can stay here for a while until their own financial situation improves.”

Victoria Cerdan, one of the entrepreneurs behind Haibu 4.0, told AFP that “obviously it is not adequate housing, no one would want it for themselves. But no one wants a monthly salary of 500 euros and unfortunately, they exist. Instead of living on the street, we offer this.”

But not everyone is too happy about the project. Housing counselor Josep Maria Montaner said there is no room for such a project in Barcelona. “The rules say that any housing unit must have a surface area of at least 40 square meters, which means that this company will never obtain the necessary operating licenses,” he warned.

Janet Sanz, one of the deputy mayors, said the city has not received any application for the tiny pods, and that even if it did, it would be rejected. “Overcrowding is illegal; an activity like this has no place in our city, either now or in the future.”

The project was even blasted on social media, with Inigo Errejon, a prominent lawmaker with Spain’s anti-austerity Podemos party tweeting: “There are similar houses in cemeteries, they are called coffins.”

With unfair income distribution, a housing affordability crisis and widespread poverty in Spain, young Spaniards in a post-Global Financial Crisis environment could soon be experiencing an entirely new housing accommodation that is the same size as a jail cell: tiny pods; come to think of it, why not just commit a crime and live in prison for free?

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Trump Escalates in Syria, After Promising to ‘Get Out’: Reason Roundup

There are plenty of legitimate lines of criticism against President Donald Trump’s policy preferences, antics, and decorum. But all too often, establishment takedowns of Trump—from centrist conservatives and liberals who consider themselves “the grownups” in this improbable era—dwell on course-correcting one of the few things the Trump administration has done moderately right: not getting us further entangled in foreign civil wars, nation-building boondoggles, and other imperial adventures of the sort that Bush-Clinton-Bush-Obama adored.

This respite was bound to be short-lived, given that Trump doesn’t seem to be guided by principles so much as by a series of impulses, alliances, and petty grievances. Hence, five months after he said he wanted America “to get out” of Syria, Trump has now agreed to a major escalation of U.S. action there.

What will happen to U.S. troops in Syria?

The 2,200 or so troops currently stationed in Syria will stay, even though their stated primary goal of ousting ISIS “has nearly been completed,” notes The Washington Post. Now the goal is getting Iranian forces to go, even if that sets us up for direct conflict with not just Iran but Russia.

James Jeffrey, who was named “representative for Syria engagement” by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, said American troops will now be tasked with ensuring the exit of all Iranian military personnel and helping to build (as the Post puts it) “a stable, nonthreatnening government acceptable to all Syrians and the international community.”

Never mind that this hasn’t gone so well when we’ve done it before—this time, we’ll do it longer! “We are not in a hurry,” Jeffrey said, adding that he is “confident that the president is on board with this.” Previously, Trump “resisted significant involvement” in the Syrian civil war “even as both Iran and Russia increased their influence,” notes the Post.

What will happen to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad?

“Assad has no future, but it’s not our job to get rid of him,” said Jeffrey.

It won’t be that easy.

Just today, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani met in Tehran, where Rouhani said the next step in Syria strategy was “to force the United States to leave.”

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Dispatches from day three of the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation hearings.

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The pension crisis is bigger than the world’s 20 largest economies

If your retirement plans consist entirely of that pension you’ve been promised, it’s time to start looking elsewhere.

It seems like every week we have some new pension catastrophe to report. Seems like there’s a trend, no?

As you probably know, pensions are giant pools of capital responsible for paying out retirement benefits to workers.

And right now many pension funds around the world simply don’t have enough assets to cover the retirement obligations they owe to millions of workers.

In the US alone, federal, state, and local governments, pensions are about $7 TRILLION short of the funding they need to pay out all the benefits they’ve promised.

(** And that doesn’t include another $49 trillion in unfunded Social Security obligations…)

America’s private pensions are in bad shape too — a total of around 1400 corporate pensions are a combined $553 billion in the hole. Plus, 25% of those funds are expected to go broke in the next decade. But the pension problem is much bigger than just what’s happening (though the US problems are SEVERE).

In 2015, the total worldwide gap in pension funding was $70 TRILLION according to the World Economic Forum. That is larger than the twenty largest economies in the world combined.

And it’s only gotten worse since then…

The WEC said that the worldwide pension shortfall is on track to reach $400 trillion by 2050.

And what solutions did they suggest?

“Provide a ‘safety net’ pension for all.” You know, sort of like Social Security… which as we mentioned is $49 trillion in the hole. Not exactly a sound solution.

Another solution the WEC offered was to increase contribution rates– in other words, forcing current workers pay more to support retired workers.

Only one problem with that… global demographics are awful. There just aren’t enough young people being born to pay out benefits for retirees.

And that problem is coming to a head in South Korea, where about 13% of the population is currently of retirement age: 65 or older.

By 2060, 40% of the population will be over 65.

And, you guessed it, there aren’t close to enough people being born to burden that load.

This is a nightmare scenario for pensions (in addition to fact that low interest rates have made the returns pensions need to break even basically unachievable).

But worry not, South Korea has an answer for the problem…

The government spent $113 billion over the past 12 years trying to get people to have more kids (I’m curious what this money was spent on… removing condom dispensers from bathrooms?).

But more importantly, this should give you a hint of how the government views you… Much like a dairy cow. Not enough milk? Breed more cows!)

But for all the money and effort, South Koreans are actually having FEWER babies– a decline of 1.12 babies per woman in 2006, to just 0.96 this year.

So when you look a few decades out, South Korea clearly isn’t going to have enough workers paying into the pension system to support all the retired beneficiaries.

Even the government acknowledges this. And they’ve already started managing expectations…

One of the government’s proposals is to slash retirement payments by 10%.

At the same time, the government wants to increase current contributions (i.e. payroll TAX) by almost 50%.

These people have been planning their futures based on promises the government has been making for decades. Unfortunately, those promises have no basis in reality.

And if you think higher pension contributions and lower payouts are contained to South Korea, you’re nuts.

Earlier this year, the US Office of Personnel Management proposed $143.5 billion worth of pension cuts for current AND already retired federal workers.

Remember, US government pensions are $7 TRILLION in the hole. And the demographics are just as bad (the US currently has the lowest fertility rate on record).

Look, I’m not trying to be alarmist. These are just the cold hard facts that everyone needs to understand.

We’re talking about long-term challenges to retirement. But it’s retirement… ergo we’re SUPPOSED to think long-term about retirement: years, decades out. Retirement requires having a plan.

Or, in this case, a Plan B… as anyone depending on a pension or social security for retirement is out of luck.

Governments have lulled hundred of millions of people into a false sense of security based on financial promises they are not going to be able to keep.

It’s not a political problem. It’s an arithmetic problem. And one they’re unable to solve.

But you can.

While you might not be able to fix the pension gap in your home country, you can definitely secure your own retirement.

There’s no need to rely on empty promises and broken pension funds. With some basic planning, education, and a bit of early action, you can safely sidestep the consequences of this looming financial crisis that is larger than the world’s 20 largest economies combined.

Here’s a great, free resource to get you started.

Source

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Despite Indictment, Rep. Duncan Hunter Remains Favorite to Win Another Term in Congress: New at Reason

It’s hard to be too surprised about the recent indictment of Rep. Duncan Hunter, the San Diego-area Republican accused (along with his wife) of using $250,000 in campaign funds for personal expenses including a trip to Italy, massive bar tabs and video games. OK, it’s startling whenever any congressman faces charges, but the federal indictment probably won’t shock those who have followed past news reports about a man sometimes mocked as a member of the GOP “Bros Caucus” because of his apparent frat-boy lifestyle.

The 47-page indictment also accuses the couple of filing false campaign-finance records. There’s the allegation that his wife, Margaret, spent $152 on cosmetics and told the campaign they were gift-basket items for a charity. Even tackier, the Justice Department alleges that when Rep. Hunter wanted to buy “Hawaii shorts,” his wife allegedly told him to buy them at a golf pro shop so they could attribute the expense to balls for wounded warriors. We’ve long known about the $600 to fly their pet rabbit on a trip—something the campaign attributes to an innocent billing mistake. But there’s little mistaking the lifestyle enjoyed by this servant of the people.

The Hunters pleaded not guilty and deny the allegations. Rep. Hunter’s statement accuses the Justice Department of waging a political witch hunt designed to harm his re-election chances. He said the campaign made mistakes but they repaid those things.

But probably the most interesting news is that despite this terrible publicity, Duncan Hunter remains the odds-on favorite to retain his congressional seat in November, writes Steven Greenhut.

View this article.

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Dollar, Yield Surge After Scorching Earnings Surprise

Wage inflation is back with a bang, and so is speculation that the Fed will be forced to hike far longer than the market expects, which of course means much more pain for emerging markets.

Because just as EM currencies breathed a sigh of relief that the dollar may have finally peaked after 4 weeks of declines, the greenback surged following today’s average hourly earnings number, which as a reminder, was the strongest in 9 years…

… leading to a sharp spike in the dollar.

The stronger dollar has translated to immediate yield strength as well, with 10Y yields jumping 5bps as high as 2.93%…

… while 2Y notes rose to 2.686%, the highest since July 2008.

As for stocks, they are down, but nothing too dramatic just yet, with S&P futures down about 9 points and the Dow -90. 

As a reminder, it was the “hot” January hourly earnings print that according to many prompted the sharp selloff that Friday that cascaded into the VIXtermination event the following week. Is the market about to have another similar ugly reaction now that wage inflation, and the Phillips curve, appears to finally be making a comeback?

 

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