Month: September 2018

One week after President Trump tweeted his latest demand for OPEC to cut oil prices (presumably by boosting production), Saudi Arabia is reportedly considering doing just that.

We protect the countries of the Middle East, they would not be safe for very long without us, and yet they continue to push for higher and higher oil prices! We will remember. The OPEC monopoly must get prices down now!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 20, 2018

CNBC reported early Monday that Saudi Arabia would be willing to pump as many as 550,000 additional barrels of oil per day if demand merits it. Of those, 250k would come from the Kurais field and 300,000 from resumed capacity from its pipeline at Manifa.

Sources confirm to CNBC that Saudi Arabia is able & willing to add as many as 550,000 new barrels of #oil onto the market *if* demand merits it.

250k barrels from Kurais field and 300,000 from resumed capacity from pipeline issues at Manifa.

— Brian Sullivan (@SullyCNBC) September 27, 2018

SAUDI’S MAY ADD UP TO 550K BBLS/DAY TO MARKET @CNBC

— Brynne Kelly (@BrynneKKelly) September 27, 2018

Meanwhile, Reuters reports that Saudi Arabia is planning to “quietly” pump more oil to offset an expected drop in Iranian production, even as it worries that it might need to restrict supply next year as US shale producers expand their output. Saudi is still weighing whether to go ahead with the production hike, with officials saying the Kingdom is worried about maintaining unity in the OPEC+ production block (which includes non-OPEC producers like Russia). The anonymous officials were reportedly familiar with private discussions at the OPEC meeting in Algiers earlier this month.

Two sources familiar with OPEC policy said Saudi Arabia and other producers discussed a possible production increase of about 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC allies.

But Riyadh decided against pressing for an official increase now as it realized it would not secure agreement from all producers present at the talks, some of which lack spare production capacity and would be unable to boost output quickly.

Such a move would have unsettled relations among producers, the sources said, with the Saudis keen to maintain unity among the so-called OPEC+ alliance in case Riyadh wants to change course in future and seek their collaboration on an output cut.

“There are only two months left until the end of the year, so why create tensions now between Saudi Arabia, Iran and Russia?” one source familiar with the Algiers discussions said.

The report comes after Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said over the weekend that he’s concerned an oil production ramp in the US could push prices lower again as supply outstrips demand.

Brent crude dropped from session highs on the news:

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Submitted by Tuomas Malinen of GnS Economics

The Eurozone is a fragile financial mammoth. While its GDP lacks the US by around $3 trillion, assets of the banking sector are some 240 percent of GDP vs. around 90 percent in the US. It has been kept on standing only through the large-scale asset purchase program (quantitative easing or QE) of the ECB. However, the ECB is about to phase-out its bond buying program, which will affect the debt dynamics and the likelihood of euro survival in a dramatic way.

The tragedy of the Eurozone in three acts

The Eurozone has been built on quicksand. The examples of more than 200 former currency unions suggests rather vividly that a currency union needs to be either backed by a political union or it needs to have an exit option. The eurozone, markedly, has neither.

It was erroneously assumed that when countries join the European Monetary Union (EMU), their economies would start to converge.  This means that it was thought that the poorer countries would start to catch-up to the richer ones in well-being and, e.g., productivity. That never materialized. The convergence that was observable during the first years of the euro halted after the financial crisis hit (see the Figure below).

After the crisis of 2008, capital started to flee from the weaker member countries of the EZ (see Figure 2 below). When the run on the capital account of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain started to accelerate in 2011, it pushed them on the verge of an default. Their sovereign defaults threatened to bring down major banks, especially in France and Germany.  There was also a risk that defaulting countries would be forced to return to their own currency to support their banking system.

Thus, the 2008 crisis was a classical ‘asymmetric shock’ in the EMU, and the European debt crisis that followed, was in essence a banking crisis.  To save face, the European banking system, and, apparently, to stop the EZ from falling apart, leaders of the Eurozone issued bailout loans to the crisis countries so that they could pay back the money they had borrowed from European banks.

Alas, only miniscule fractions of these bailout loans went to help the people of crisis-hit countries. The rescue measures applied during the debt crises was probably the most duplicitous and inefficient bank re-capitalization in history.

Scenarios of a breakup

The process that leads to the collapse of the Eurozone is likely to consist of six phases:

1. ECB tapering
2. Economic/political shock
3. Economic crisis
4. Political crisis
5. Legal crisis
6. Breakup

We are thus closing in the first phase, because the ECB is expected to taper (stop increasing its net purchases of sovereign debt) in December. This creates an existential threat for the EZ, because it is all but obvious that the current prices of sovereign debt in the EZ do not truly reflect the actual market estimate of sovereign risk, but only the extent of bond-buying by the ECB.  We have been warning about this “risk-hiding” strategy of the ECB for several years (see, e.g., Q-review:s 2/2014, 1/2015, 1/2018).

However, the ECB will continue to roll over its existing sovereign debt pile. Because its balance sheet is very large (close to 42% of GDP of the EZ), even only reinvesting principal produces pressure on sovereign yields. Still, any increase in the net issuance of sovereign debt needs to find another buyer. Everyone should ask themselves, “would I lend to, say, Italy for 10 years at three percent?” to find whether potential buyers will be plentifully available.

Thus, when the blanket of ECB support recedes from the sovereign bond markets, the market pricing of risk will return, implying that sovereign yields are likely to become very volatile. It is also uncertain whether the ECB can restart QE, which crucially depends on the decision of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) of QE. If restarting the program becomes impossible, and if “Eurobonds”, some new common financial structure, or foreign central banks do not take the ECB’s place in the bond markets to buy the increased net issuance of sovereign debt before the next banking crisis or recession hits, the debt crisis will make an epic comeback.

In any case,  the over-indebted countries of the EZ face a stark choice, when the recession strikes. Many of them are now even more indebted than in 2010 (see Figure 3). They need to either subject themselves to the bailout programs of the ESM, or default and exit. It is highly uncertain whether countries will be willing to accept the conditions of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) programs, especially when they know how Greece was treated.

Articles 123 and 125 of the Treaty of the Function of the EU (TFEU) also prohibit countries from assuming the financial responsibilities of other member states and forbid any financing of member countries or institutions by the ECB. They seriously limit the ability of the EZ leaders and the ECB to ”do whatever it takes” to save the euro. Markets are about to call the bluff of Mario Draghi.

In a breakup, we come to a completely uncharted water, because no country has ever exited from the euro. The uncontrolled breakup of the Eurozone would constitute a cataclysmic shock to the global financial system. Countries, banks and corporations would be likely to default en masse. The ECB would declare bankruptcy due to heavy losses from defaulted sovereign bonds. The European financial sector would crumble taking the global financial system with it. A global financial calamity would follow. Other options do exist, however.

Eurozone: a dangerous political construct

The EZ was a bold, but fundamentally-flawed experiment. The fact is that politicians are the ones who got us into this predicament by creating a flawed and inherently-unstable currency union despite the warnings of many economists and the overwhelming historical evidence against the success of such initiatives.

There can be no other than a political solution to its problems. We’ll know soon enough whether politicians can find one.

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French President Emmanuel Macron has insisted that countries avoid signing trade deals with any other country which refuses to abide by the Paris Climate Accord – of which the US is not a signatory, according to The Independent.

Speaking at the UN General Assembly in New York, Macron said that France will no longer accept “commercial agreements” with countries that do not “respect” the global warming accord. 

The French president called for the upholding of trade rules that “guarantee fair competition on equal footing” during his Tuesday speech, following a Monday afternoon meeting with Donald Trump and the US president’s speech on Monday morning. Mr Macron appeared defiant towards Mr Trump, suggesting he’d no longer negotiate trade deals with the US after its withdrawal from the climate agreement last year. 

“We will no longer sign commercial agreements with powers that do not respect the Paris accord,” Mr Macron said without directly referencing Mr Trump or the US. –Independent

The Independent notes that the US is reportedly the only nation in the world which remains opposed to the Paris agreement, following Trump’s decision to pull out of it last year. 

Macron also took a shot at Trump’s “America First” policies, suggesting that international superpowers should pursue peaceful resolutions to global issues, from Iran’s nuclear program to the Syrian conflict. 

“As I was saying a year ago, today we should not aggravate regional tensions but rather through dialogue and multilateralism pursue a broader agenda that allows us to address all the concerns caused by Iranian policies,” Macron said Monday, adding “nuclear, ballistic, regional.”

He also criticised the president’s decision to pull out of the Iran Nuclear deal, touting its success in preventing the country’s “nuclear military path”. 

“What will bring a real solution to the situation in Iran and what has already stabilised it? The law of the strongest? Pressure from only one side? No!“ he said. “We know that Iran was on a nuclear military path but what stopped it? The 2015 Vienna accord.” 

The speech deeply contrasted that of Mr Trump, who spoke on Monday about “America’s policy of principled realism,” while criticising components of the United Nations. –Independent

“We will not return to the Human Rights Council until real reform is enacted. We will also not provide any support to the International Criminal Court,” said Trump, adding that “the ICC has no authority. It violates all principles of justice and due process.”

“We will never surrender America’s sovereignty,” Trump said. “We reject the ideology of globalism. America is governed by Americans.”

TRUMP: “Moving forward, we are only going to give foreign aid to those who respect us and, frankly, are our friends… I have told our negotiators that the United States will not pay more than 25% of the UN Peacekeeping budget.” pic.twitter.com/Gchq8EuNSw

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) September 25, 2018

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Data from the Independent Authority for Public Revenue show tax arrears totaled 182.5 billion euros ($214 billion) on Aug. 10, according to a note sent from the agency to parliament last week and seen by The Associated Press Wednesday.

“The Greek government is owed so much in tax arrears from households and companies that it could pay off more than half its massive public debts if it collected it all,” writes AP, adding “unfortunately for the government, that’s unlikely to ever happen.”

However, as KeepTalkingGreece.com reports, more than 80 billion euros of that represents interest and fines on delayed payments from debtors that include companies that have been out of business for decades.

The arrears come close to Greece’s total economic output, estimated at 184.7 billion euros ($217 billion) this year, and Greece’s total public debt is worth about 180% of these arrears.

Eurozone-member Greece repeatedly raised taxes during its international bailouts between 2010 and August 2018.

Some 3.7 million Greeks – about 60 percent of the total – are behind on tax payments, and while the EU governments have attempted to crack down on the so-called shadow economy, black market activity still thrives in Greece.

As Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes, examples of black market activity are pretty common, whether it’s a warehouse worker driving an unlicensed taxi between shifts, an electrician accepting cash payments without declaring his earnings or a simple drug deal in a shady alleyway.

However, the level of black market activity, also defined as the shadow economy, depends highly on your country of residence. Generally defined as businesses and individuals engaging in inappropriate practices without complying with certain legal obligations such as paying tax or maintaining acceptable standards of employment, the shadow economy costs governments around the world trillions of dollars every year.

According to the IMF, heavily regulated economies with weaker administration tend to have well-established shadow economies. It’s far smaller in natons with strong, well-regulated and efficient government institutions. Back in the late 1990s, this was readily apparent in former Soviet states like Georgia where the shadow economy was estimated at 64 percent of GDP.

Today, the shadow economy is booming across southern Europe, though the scale of underground activity can only be measured indirectly.

You will find more infographics at Statista

According to a new study published by the Institute for Applied Economic Research at the University of Tübingen in Germany (IAW), Greece’s shadow economy is estimated to average 21.5 percent of GDP. In the United States, undeclared cash transactions seem to be rarer with IAW’s study placing U.S. shadow economic activity at 5.4 percent of the country’s GDP.

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A new report in Middle East Eye says Pastor Andrew Brunson could very soon be released from Turkish detention after months of immense US pressure on Ankara has sent the Turkish lira into a nosedive.

In the past weeks the issue has been out of the public eye compared to the heated and seemingly constant back and forth between US and Turkish leaders concerning the detained American citizen over the summer. 

The new report, citing Turkish and US government sources, suggests the relative cooling down in public statements surrounding Brunson’s fate is due to behind the scenes progress being made in the case. Notably, President Trump did not once mention Turkey or the Brunson issue during his major speech before the UN General Assembly on Tuesday, after being very vocal in prior months. 

According to Middle East Eye:

But the shrill tone and tit-for-tat tariff slapping has lulled lately.

The calm, according to a Turkish diplomat, comes after Ankara, under pressure to stem the country’s economic freefall, told Washington that the conflict could only be resolved if the public squabbling stopped.

The Turkish diplomat said further, “We knew we had to solve the problem and normalize our relations with the US for the sake of Turkey’s economy, but it was not possible to do that amid challenging statements.” He continued, “So we both decided to prevent any more escalation and solve the problem quietly.”

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan mentioned in statements this week that Pastor Brunson’s fate is a judicial matter, distancing himself from the contentious issue which effectively led to a summer long diplomatic war with Washington, resulting in the Turkish lira losing more than 45 percent of its value this year.

There was a moment of hope this week, however, when on Monday US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told reporters at the UN General Assembly that Brunson could be released this month, immediately after which the lira value jumped to a one-week high.

“As the president, I don’t have the right to order his release. Our judiciary is independent. Let’s wait and see what the court will decide,” Erdogan told Reuters on Wednesday. Erdogan also claimed the severely ailing economy had nothing to do with the diplomatic feud with the US: “The Brunson case is not even closely related to Turkey’s economy. The current economic challenges have been exaggerated more than necessary and Turkey will overcome these challenges with its own resources,” he said.

Meanwhile a US diplomat confirmed that the Brunson case is being discussed at “the highest levels” between Washington and Ankara. 

“There is a will on both sides to solve this problem,” the American diplomat told Middle East Eye. “We both want to leave this problem behind and focus on other areas to further our cooperation; especially Manbij, trade relations, and so on.”

Pastor Brunson, a 50-year-old evangelical pastor from Black Mountain, North Carolina was detained starting in 2016, and is undergoing trial in Turkey while under “house arrest” and is facing charges of espionage and aiding terrorist groups after being accused of cooperating with “Kurdish terrorists” and colluding with the Gulenist Islamic movement to mount a failed coup against Erdogan in 2016. He faces up to 35 years in prison if found guilty, and has now been in Turkish custody for two years. 

Trump has made it a personal mission to free Brunson, previously issuing statements via Twitter condemning his detention. For example last July, Trump stated, while addressing the Turkish president directly: “A total disgrace that Turkey will not release a respected U.S. Pastor, Andrew Brunson, from prison. He has been held hostage far too long. Erdogan should do something to free this wonderful Christian husband & father. He has done nothing wrong, and his family needs him.”

Congress has also held up transfer of F-35 fighters which were set to be delivered to Turkey, citing its horrible human rights record and the detention of Brunson. 

It appears that Turkey has now been brought to breaking point as it seeks to revive the nosediving lira, but will seek to keep its acquiescence to the White House as quiet as possible. 

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Authored by Daisy Luther via The Organic Prepper blog,

An Ebola outbreak that has been going on in the Democratic Republic of Congo since August is already one of the worst in history – the 7th worst to be precise – and it looks like it may spiral out of control. Peter Salama, WHO Deputy Director-General for Emergency Preparedness and Response, called the situation “a perfect storm.”

Unrest and war in the region combined with community resistance and mistrust of medical personnel are making it difficult for the World Health Organization to get a handle on the outbreak. Dr. Salama said:

“We are now extremely concerned, that several factors may be coming together over the next weeks to months to create a potential perfect storm. A perfect storm of active conflict, limiting our ability to access civilians, distress by segments of the community, already traumatized by decades of conflict and of murder…

…We’ve seen attacks now on August 24, September 3, 9, 11, 16, 21 and most recently and most dramatically September 22 in the city itself of Beni,” he said. He said that Beni was the base for the agency’s base for the “entire operation.” (source)

The outbreak is based in North Kivu, which is on the border of Uganda and Rwanda. Violence has displaced more than a million people in the area, and there have been a number of brutal machete attacks against civilians. Things got so bad that the WHO was forced to cease their operations for an entire week while the Ebola virus spread.

One of the armed groups in DRC which pose a threat to civilians and the international response to Ebola, the ADF – Allied Democratic Forces – has sufficient military capacity to ambush blue helmets from the UN’a Stabilization Mission in DRC (MONUSCO) and government forces – the FARDC.

“The ADF in particular has enormous capabilities,” Dr Salama said. “They’ve been able to overrun entire FARDC-bases in and around Beni, they’ve been able to ambush (UN) forces.” (source)

ADF is an Islamist group that is a serious threat to the Congolese government as well as relief workers.

If WHO and its partners had to leave North Kivu … we would have grave concerns that this outbreak would not be able to be well controlled in the coming weeks or months.” (source)

But it isn’t only violence and war that are factors in this “perfect storm.”

Local traditions are making it the Ebola outbreak more likely to spread.

The local traditions in the Congo are making relief efforts more difficult.

…“We’ve heard this morning, that that ‘ville morte’, which was yesterday, has now been extended right through to Friday of this week,” he said, “which basically means for the UN family, including WHO, a lockdown in Beni. Our operations are in effect suspended.”

…Butembo could also declare a “ville morte” in coming days in sympathy with the people of Beni, he said, potentially increasing the chances of the situation deteriorating rapidly.

“If we do see unsafe burials that can’t be responded to and symptomatic people that can’t be accessed, we can see this situation deteriorating very quickly,” Dr. Salama said.

A “ville morte” is a period of mourning.

Local politicians are manipulating the public so they’re afraid to be treated.

Meanwhile, it’s an election year in the area and local politicians are taking full advantage of this crisis.

In addition to many people’s fear of Ebola, the WHO senior official explained that the situation was being further complicated by local politicians who “exploited and manipulated” them prior to upcoming elections.

Social media reaction to the outbreak was also adding to a “range of conspiracy theories”, Dr Salama said, adding that people have been “actively fleeing” health-workers, including in places where there have been a large number of cases in recent weeks. (source)

“Pockets of resistance” against treatment, fueled by the politicians, are making it difficult to get a handle on new cases. Terrified people are running away from workers into areas that are inaccessible due to security concerns.

We also see a very concerning trend. That resistance, driven by quite natural fear of this terrifying disease, is starting to be exploited by local politicians, and we’re very concerned in the run up to elections, projected for December, that exploitation… will gather momentum and make it very difficult to root out the last cases of Ebola.”

Some people were fleeing into the forest to escape Ebola follow-up treatment and checks, sometimes moving hundreds of kilometers, he said…

…social media posts were conflating Ebola with criticism of the DRC government and the United Nations and “a range of conspiracy theories”, which could put health workers at risk. (source)

This fear of treatment is something we’ve seen numerous times. During the last outbreak, families literally broke into treatment facilities and took their ailing family members who were diagnosed with active Ebola to prayer meetings, where they died in the most contagious stages of the disease.

The disease is now threatening Uganda

Thus far, there are no cases of Ebola in Uganda, but worry has spiked as a case was confirmed near the border at a popular destination for Ugandans.

Tchomia landing site is the closest Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) landing site to Ugandan districts in the Bunyoro sub-region On Friday, Ituri province vice governor Keta Upar said in a statement that the latest Ebola case had been reported in Tchomia.

Tchomia is one of the busiest fish markets in eastern DRC and attracts several Ugandan businessmen from the landing sites of Butiaba, Walukoba, Kijangi, Kaiso,Sebigoro, Nkondo, Ndaiga, Ntoroko, Kyehoro and Fofo from the districts of Hoima, Buliisa, Kikuube, Ntoroko and Kagadi.

Usually, Ugandan businessmen cross to Tchomia market on a weekly basis – posing a big threat that the Ebola outbreak can easily be brought into the country. Tchoima fish market operates every Thursday. (source)

Ugandan officials have stepped up screening at the border.

Screening of people crossing from DRC for signs and symptoms of Ebola is being conducted at official and unofficial points of entry. Communities have been sensitised about Ebola and are vigilant and reporting any suspicious cases for investigation. (source)

Here’s a map that shows the area and where the case was diagnosed.

It’s encouraging to see that Uganda is not allowing political correctness to sway them from doing the right thing for their people. We can only hope that the United States will do the same in a time where deadly diseases can spread so easily. Physical check-ups of people from areas where epidemics are out of control should be the norm, not a unique thing that is protested loudly.

At least 100 people have died.

The current outbreak is the 7th largest in history.

In the past two months, 150 cases have been confirmed or “probable” and as of Sept. 23, 100 people had died.

The worst-case scenario is that the Ebola virus continues to spread in North Kivu and moves across the border to other countries. If that happens, we could be facing a nightmare like the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic, during which more than 11,000 people died. The only good news: This time we have an effective vaccine. (source)

As of Monday, 80% of Ebola contacts and three suspected cases could not be reached for disease monitoring.

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) warned on Wednesday that growth prospects for Asia next year could slow substantially as the US-China trade war disrupts multinational corporations’ supply chains, inflicting damage on the region’s export-reliant economies.

Peak quantitative easing policies have been realized; central bank asset purchases $1.6tn in 2016, $2.3tn in 2017, $0.3tn in 2018, and will decline $0.2tn in 2019. It is late-cycle, and the Federal Reserve is tightening, which explains why global stocks are down YTD ex. US tech. Meanwhile, global liquidity is rapidly shrinking, and that has become a significant concern for Asian business activity by pushing up borrowing costs, while capital outflows are also a risk.

Reuters said the Manila-based institution kept its 2018 economic growth forecast for the region unchanged at 6.0% in an update of its Asian Development Outlook. But slashed next year’s projection to 5.8% from 5.9%.

“Downside risks to the outlook are intensifying”, said ADB Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada, pointing to the potential impact of US-China trade tensions on regional supply chains and the risk of sudden capital outflows if the Federal Reserve continues hiking interest rates.

The ADB’s growth cut to 5.8%  estimate for 2019 would be the slowest for the region since the Dotcom bust (2001) when it expanded 4.9%. The report covers a total of 45 countries in the Asia-Pacific region.

Additionally, Reuters said ADB’s revised outlook for 2019 had not factored in President Trump’s recently implemented tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods imposed on Monday. 

The domestic economy in China “seems to be quite robust and supporting 6.6% growth this year”, Sawada told the press. “But admittedly we don’t know (how) the further escalation of the trade dispute may directly affect consumer sentiment.”

Beijing fixed its 2018 growth target to 6.5%, similar to 2017, which it beat by expanding at 6.9%. Despite the trade war, Chinese authorities have stayed the course for 2018 growth target, as new easing measures have been introduced to prevent an already cooling economy.

In a recent BofA report titled “The Thundering World,” the profit outlook has become more negative for world risk assets. Global EPS has peaked; was 22% in February, now 16%. One leading indicator of global profits is Korean exports, which predicts an imminent global slowdown.

ADB said weakness in Southeast Asia is expected: beware moderating export growth, quickening inflation, net capital outflows and a worsening balance of payments, with growth this year projected to slow to 5.1% from the July forecast of 5.2%.

“Policymakers have at their disposal an array of policy tools with which to manage pockets of vulnerability and maintain stability, but they must be applied carefully,” Sawada said.

Sawada said Asian governments have “enough policy space to handle” shocks and pressure from currency depreciation.

A perfect storm of trade wars and quantitative tightening is brewing in the world, and it could soon lead to a sudden growth shock in the Eastern hemisphere, in 2019. 

So what happens next? A possible 2019 slowdown in Asia could trigger a repricing event in the US, as the gap between US equities and global stocks is wide. 

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The Senate Judiciary Committee on Wednesday night released a time of their efforts to responded to various accusations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh – including two men who say they they were the basis for the “groping” allegation. 

The claims also include a new allegation from a San Diego woman who alleges that Kavanaugh and others raped her in the backseat of a car, though it does not specify the place, date or identities of the alleged accomplices. 

Whoa. Senate Judiciary Committee Republicans say they have spoken to two men who think they, not Kavanaugh, had the 1982 encounter that formed the basis for her sexual abuse claim. (These tables are from a timeline the committee majority published 15 minutes ago.) pic.twitter.com/tjz3CSQUUL

— David Martosko (@dmartosko) September 27, 2018

Wow. To follow this timeline by judiciary committee is eye opening. Jud Comm lawyers interview 2 men who claim they maybe been assailant against Ford in 82. Investigate claims of assault by Kavanaugh’s in RI in 85.Kavanaugh denies being in RI in 85.Anonymous letter from CA. Crazy https://t.co/kCixo38w8t

— Matt Hall (@cmhall277) September 27, 2018

Last week, former Scalia clerk Ed Whelan floated a theory over Twitter in a series of now-deleted tweets, suggesting that Blasey Ford had confused Kavanaugh with another high school student who looked almost identical to him. Ford claims “there is zero chance that I would confuse him.” 

Earlier Wednesday, another Kavanaugh accuser – Julie Swetnick, had an ominous cloud of doubt cast over her allegation that the Supreme Court nominee and a friend were operating a date-rape “gang bang” operation at 10 high school parties she attended as a legal adult three years older than Kavanaugh (yet didn’t report once).

Politico reported that Swetnick’s ex-boyfriend, Richard Vinneccy – a registered Democrat, took out a restraining order against her, and says he has evidence that she’s lying. 

“Right after I broke up with her, she was threatening my family, threatening my wife and threatening to do harm to my baby at that time,” Vinneccy said in a telephone interview with POLITICO. “I know a lot about her.” –Politico

“I have a lot of facts, evidence, that what she’s saying is not true at all,” he said. “I would rather speak to my attorney first before saying more.”

BREAKING: Julie Swetnick’s ex-boyfriend filed a restraining order against her: “She was threatening my family, threatening my wife, and threatening to harm my baby,” said Richard Vinneccy, “I know a lot about her. She’s not credible at all. Not at all.” —Politico

— Alana Mastrangelo (@ARmastrangelo) September 27, 2018

Avenatti called the claims “outrageous” and hilariously accused the press of “digging into the past” of a woman levying a claim against Kavanaugh from over 35 years ago. 

Meanwhile, Swetnick has now been linked to Blasey Ford – as she utilized the law firm run by Ford to sue her previous employer, New York Life Insurance Co. for sexual harassment. 

New: A decade ago, Julie Swetnick made a sexual harassment complaint against her former employer, New York Life Insurance. Representing her was the firm run by Debra Katz, who now reps Christine Blasey Ford. She was ultimately paid a financial settlement. https://t.co/goobX4fivL pic.twitter.com/UJ1LFRRc6M

— Rebecca Ballhaus (@rebeccaballhaus) September 26, 2018

Ford and Kavanaugh are scheduled to testify before the Judiciary Committee on Thursday. If it even happens at this point, will one – or both of the “mystery gropers” make an appearance?

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Authored by Patrick Lawrence via ConsortiumNews.com,

There are battlefields in Syria, Ukraine, Yemen, and elsewhere, but given the state of corporate media, perhaps the most consequential battle now being fought is for our minds…

After reading The New York Times piece “The Plot to Subvert an Election” I put the paper down with a single question.

Why, after two years of allegations, indictments, and claims to proof of this, that, and the other did the newspaper of record—well, once the newspaper of record—see any need to publish such a piece? My answer is simple: The orthodox account of Russia-gate has not taken hold: It has failed in its effort to establish a consensus of certainty among Americans. My conclusion matches this observation: The orthodox narrative is never going to achieve this objective. There are too many holes in it.

“The information age is actually a media age,” John Pilger, the noted British–Australian journalist, remarked during a symposium four years ago, when the Ukraine crisis was at its peak.

“We have war by media; censorship by media; demonology by media; retribution by media; diversion by media—a surreal assembly line of obedient clichés and false assumptions.”

Pilger revisited the theme in a piece last week on Consortium News, arguing that once-tolerated, dissenting opinion has in recent years “regressed into a metaphoric underground.”

There are battlefields in Syria, Ukraine, Yemen, and elsewhere, but perhaps the most consequential battle now being fought is for our minds.

Those who dispense with honest intellectual inquiry, healthy skepticism of all media, and an insistence that assertions require supporting evidence should not win this war. The Times piece by Scott Shane and Mark Mazzetti—two of the paper’s top-tier reporters—is a case in point: If the Russia-gate narrative were so widely accepted as their report purports, there would have been no need to publish such a piece at this late date.

Many orthodox narratives are widely accepted however among a public that is not always paying attention. The public too often participates in the manufactured consent. Usually it take years for the truth to be widely understood. Sometimes it comes when the U.S. admits it decades later, such as the role of the CIA in the coups in Iran and Chile. Other times it comes through admissions by former U.S. officials, such as former Defense Secretary Robert McNamara about the Vietnam War.

Even Recent Narratives are Fraying

There are more recent examples of official narratives quickly fraying if not starting to fall apart, though Establishment media continues to push them.

For instance, there are serious doubts about who was responsible for alleged chemical weapons attacks in Syria. The most significant was in Eastern Ghouta in August 2013 followed by attacks in Khan Sheikhoun (April 2017) and Douma (April 2018).

The corporate media accounts of each of these attacks have been countered with persuasive evidence against the prevailing view that the government of Bashar al–Assad was to blame. It has been provided journalists (Seymour Hersh ), a scientist (Theodore Postol ), and on-the-ground correspondents and local witnesses. These reports are subject to further verification. But by no means do official narratives stand without challenge.

There is also the case of Malaysian Flight MH–17, shot down over Ukrainian territory in June 2014. The official report, issued a year later, concluded that the plane was downed by Ukrainian rebels using a Russian-supplied missile. The report was faulty from the first: Investigators never visited the site , some evidence was based on a report produced by Bellingcat , an open-source web site affiliated with the vigorously anti–Russian Atlantic Council, and Ukraine was given the right to approve the report before it was issued.

Last week the Russian military disclosed evidence that serial numbers found in the debris at the MH–17 crash site indicate the missile that downed the plane was produced at a Soviet military-production plant in 1986 owned by Ukraine. Let us see further verification of this evidence (although I seriously doubt any Western correspondent will seek any). The official report of 2015 noted the serial numbers, so we know they are authentic, but it did not use them to trace the missile’s provenance.

There is also the seriously muddled case of the poisoning of the Skripals in Britain.  Why hasn’t the Western media dug into this story rather than accept at face value the pronouncements of the British government?

A month ago I lamented the damage Russia-gate has done to many of our most important institutions, the press not least among them. What is the corporate media thinking? That once President Trump is dumped, all will return to normal and professional standards will be restored? One can also argue the reverse: that adversarial journalism has returned to the White House beat largely out of personal animus towards Trump and that it will disappear again once a more “normal” president is in office.

As Pilger put it, “This is a seismic shift, with journalists policing the new ‘groupthink,’ as [Robert] Parry called it, dispensing myths and distractions, pursuing its enemies.”

In other words, Establishment journalism has shifted far afield from its traditional ideals of non-partisan, objective reporting and is instead vying for your mind to enlist it in its agenda to promote American interests abroad or one party or the other at home.

 

We can’t let them get away with it. Our minds are our own.

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