Month: September 2018

One day after the US-China trade war entered “phase II”, with another $200BN in US tariffs slapped on Chinese imports  sending global stocks lower, markets found their footing, and stocks in Europe traded higher after a mixed session in Asia as investors put trade war and political jitters on the backburner and turned their attention to tomorrow’s FOMC rate hike and 2019 dot plot.

Europe’s Stoxx Europe 600 rebounded from Monday’s drop, rising 0.3% as most European bourses traded in the green, while U.S. index futures pointed to a mixed open, with S&P 500 futures slightly firmer even as the Nasdaq hugged the flatline after Instagram’s founders said they were leaving Facebook .

After a one-day holiday, China and Japan returned to the market with diverging reactions: Japanese stocks climbed to the highest since February as the Nikkei closed at session highs, some 0.3% higher, a function of the ongoing decline in the yen…

… while Chinese shares headed in the opposite direction after a long weekend. Meanwhile, Hong Kong where stocks dropped on Monday due to escalating trade tensions, and South Korea were shut.

Italian bonds rallied as the country crept closer to a budget compromise. According to La Stampa, Italy would propose a 1.9% budget deficit, which while somewhat wider than previously expected, would include budget cuts and 36 billion-euro investment package. Five Star leader Di Maio suggested Italy should copy France with a 2.8% deficit-to-GDP but later backtracked and said the gap should be narrower than that. Even with a budget deal imminent, Goldman strategist George Cole remained skeptical, warning that the extra premium investors demand to hold Italian debt over its German equivalent is unlikely to shrink to levels seen before May anytime soon. That’s even if Italy’s leaders project a deficit below the bank’s forecast of 2% and the European Union limit of 3% in their 2019 budget targets, which must be published by Thursday.

Specifically, Cole predicted a difficult outlook over the medium term, due to the “upcoming fiscal expansion, coupled with the weakening in higher frequency indicators” in Italy, should result in only a limited and temporary fall in Italian yields. If the deficit comes in as Goldman expects or lower, the spread could tighten to 210 basis points, but will be hard to narrow beyond 200 basis points

However, the main driver behind global sentiment remains the trade showdown between the US and China, as the two nations dig in for what BBG called “could be a long and bruising trade war, after China’s decision to call off planned talks after the latest round of tariffs. China’s Vice Commerce Minister said China was willing to promote US-China trade in a fairer fashion and is hoping US takes more positive steps as well, although he added trade talks with the US are hard to proceed as US has  abandoned mutual understanding and the restart of trade talks depends completely on the US.

Separately, China’s NDRC Vice Chairman said China is able to offset trade risks through expanding domestic demand and that China will give more support for Chinese firms to expand into international markets including EU, Japan and Africa, while he reiterated the domestic economy is resilient.

Political fears also emerged overnight, following conflicting reports that U.S. Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein may be poised to leave his post – although it remains unclear if he will quit or be fired – while the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court continues to be mired in controversy.

With just one day until the Fed’s latest decision, in which the FOMC is expected to hike another 25 bps and feature fresh projections for the next few years, traders are gearing for further strength in the dollar and more bond weakness. According to JPM portfolio manager Iain Stealey, “what will be more interesting will be to find out the number of rate hikes anticipated for next year. Inflation is above target, so they can keep going on this sort of slow normalization. I don’t see them stopping unless we see a pickup in trade rhetoric which actually does impact the overall economy.”

Meanwhile, speaking of the dollar, it swung between gains and losses amid choppy price action in most major currencies.

The euro edged higher against the dollar after earlier reversing gains and bunds trimmed losses after ECB Chief Economist Peter Praet said he didn’t believe President Mario Draghi intended Monday to send a new signal when he said the pickup in underlying euro-area inflation is “relatively vigorous.” Elsewhere in FX, the pound swung between losses and gains as the U.K. opposition Labour Party said it will vote against Prime Minister Theresa May’s exit deal with the European Union, and is keeping all options open on Brexit including a second referendum and the choice to stay in the bloc. The yen fell to a two-month low against the dollar as markets note the BOJ’s reluctance – and impossibility – to tighten financial conditions. Sweden’s krona held steady against the euro even as the country’s parliament voted to oust Prime Minister Stefan Lofven.

Treasuries remained in their recent defensive mode, with the 10-year yield rising close to its year-to-date high, pushing above 3.11%. 

In commodities, Brent continued its ascent after OPEC+ nations defied Trump’s demands for a production boost, and traded above $81 a barrel, the highest in 4 years, while most metals fell.

In the latest Brexit news, UK PM May said it was always clear there would come a critical point in Brexit negotiations and now is the time to hold nerve, while there were separate reports the UK cabinet is said to give PM May’s Brexit plan 2 weeks for progress. May was also said to meet US President Trump on Wednesday to discuss Brexit and a post-Brexit trade deal, according to a British official.

On today’s calendar, expected data includes FHFA House Price Index and Conference Board Consumer Confidence. Aurora Cannabis, IHS Markit, Nike are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 2,929.25
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 383.08
• MXAP up 0.07% to 165.27
• MXAPJ down 0.2% to 523.04
• Nikkei up 0.3% to 23,940.26
• Topix up 1% to 1,822.44
• Hang Seng Index down 1.6% to 27,499.39
• Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 2,781.14
• Sensex down 0.4% to 36,175.40
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.02% to 6,185.88
• Kospi up 0.7% to 2,339.17
• German 10Y yield rose 1.4 bps to 0.524%
• Euro down 0.02% to $1.1746
• Italian 10Y yield rose 11.6 bps to 2.586%
• Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.9 bps to 1.515%
• Brent futures up 1% to $81.99/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,200.24
• U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 94.19

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

• World’s two biggest economies are digging in for what could be a long and bruising trade war, testing the resilience of the strongest global upswing in years
• President Trump didn’t bring up any new areas of contention in his Monday meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, and the two found areas of agreement over Iran and Syria, French officials said
• U.K. opposition Labour Party is preparing to vote down any deal with the EU that Theresa May brings to Parliament, adding to pressure on the beleaguered premier
• German Chancellor Angela Merkel says U.K.-EU exit deal “might already be achievable in October,” ahead of EU summit likely in November
• European Union will establish mechanism to protect European companies’ financial dealings with Iran from the effect of U.S. sanctions in a bid to keep Iranian nuclear agreement alive
• Unwinding central bank quantitative easing shouldn’t have a material impact on the economy, according to Bank of England policy maker Gertjan Vlieghe
• Euro bears are holding tight, setting the common currency up for a potential short squeeze that could turbocharge a burgeoning rally
• The extra premium investors demand to hold Italian debt over German peers shrunk as La Stampa reported that the budget deficit would be 1.9 percent, below the European Union limit of 3 percent. The coalition needs to publish its 2019 budget targets by Thursday
• The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this week and continue its quarterly drumbeat of 25-basis-point increases straight through to June 2019, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg
• Swedish PM Lofven was voted out in a confidence vote in parliament as the center-right opposition and the nationalists joined forces to end four years of Social Democratic rule
• Oil held a gain above $72 a barrel as banks and trading houses became bullish on prices after OPEC and allies rebuffed President Trump’s call to boost production

Asian stocks traded mixed with the region indecisive following a lacklustre lead from Wall St. where both S&P 500 and Dow slipped from all-time highs on trade related concerns. ASX 200 (flat) losses were initially led by weakness in the financial sector but the index recovered later in the session. The Nikkei 225 (+0.3%) was choppy in lock-step with an indecisive currency. The Shanghai Composite (-0.6%) underperformed on the return from the long weekend and took its first opportunity to react to China’s cancellation of trade discussions, while the PBoC conducted a net liquidity drain and China was also reportedly to create a national system to monitor government spending. Elsewhere, Hang Seng and KOSPI are closed due to public holidays. Finally, 10yr JGBs were marginally lower in which prices tested the 150.00 level to the downside coinciding with weakness in T-notes, while the BoJ’s Rinban announcement was for a relatively reserved JPY 475bln.

Top Asian News from BBG

• Amarin’s 475% Rally Boosts Japanese Supplier of Fish-Oil EPA
• Japan Stocks Erase This Year’s Loss on Seven-Day Winning Streak
• Japan Court Clears Reactor Restart in Win for Nuclear Push
• China Stocks Fall as Trade Spat Deepens; Developers Lead Retreat
• Defaulting Shadow Lender Is Said to Face India Insolvency Filing

European equities have started the day higher with the FTSE MIB the marked outperformer as reports suggest the Italian Government are set to announce a deficit/GDP under 2%. Next are leading the gains in the FTSE and the Stoxx 600 after the UK retailer reported inspiring earnings and upwardly revised FY guidance for profits by GBP 10mln. Evonik shares are languishing close to the foot of the Stoxx 600 after RAG-Stiftung reduced its holding in the co. to 64.3%. The energy sector is extending on the gains seen yesterday and is the outperforming sector off the back of rising oil prices.

Top European News

• Praet Says Draghi’s Inflation Comments Didn’t Reveal Any News
• Telecom Italia Board Is Said to Discuss Nextel Bid
• Goldman Sees Choppy Waters for Italy’s Bonds Even After Budget
• Labour Sees Second Referendum as Tool to Avoid No-Deal Brexit

In FX, the dollar index is clinging to recovery gains just above the 94.000 level as the clock begins to tick down to  Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, but largely due to dovish/bearish impulses from the BoJ and resultant JPY weakness vs the Greenback alongside other major counterparts on a cross basis. Indeed, Usd/Jpy looks poised to probe 113.00 as Governor Kuroda effectively endorsed further upside potential given ongoing easy policy in Japan vs more normalisation in the US. Technically, 113.24 forms the 200 WMA, and the 2018 high so far is 113.40, assuming the big figure is surpassed and that  could be down to the Fed via September’s SEP and/or the tone of the accompanying statement given that another 25 bp hike seems baked in. GBP/EUR – The Pound is in pole position among G10s, partly due to the aforementioned lack of yen for the Jpy and perhaps positive sounding Brexit deal vibes from German Chancellor Merkel amidst all the divergence at home. Cable is retesting offers/resistance around 1.3150 and bids/support circa 0.8950 vs the single currency as ECB’s Praet plays down hawkish inflation comments from President Draghi, or at least perceptions and the rather ‘vigorous’ market reaction. Eur/Usd has eased back towards 1.1750 vs 1.1800+ yesterday, and from a chart perspective has retreated through a key Fib again (1.1780). CAD/AUD/CHF – All extending losses vs the Greenback, or perhaps shouldering the weight of the Dollar’s partial revival, with the Loonie slipping further from recent highs to circa 1.2960 and still mainly contingent on NAFTA instead of still  bid/rising crude prices, the Aud capped below 0.7250 and hampered by the lack of US-China trade talks, and the Franc  underperforming around 0.9650 and down through 1.1350 vs the Eur amidst latest Italian fiscal reports suggesting compliance with EU budget rules.

In commodities, the oil market added to gains seen yesterday, with the fossil fuel hitting over 4 year highs, and Brent breaking USD 82.00 to the upside in European trade as the production-shy rhetoric from OPEC remains fresh in traders minds. In the metals scope, gold is uneventful and trading within an exceedingly thin range of USD 3/oz with the yellow metal consolidating around the USD 1200/oz, as traders look ahead to tomorrows anticipated hike from the FOMC. Copper is seeing further weakness, with the construction material down over a percent, as market participants express demand concerns amid continued US-Sino trade tensions.

Looking at the day ahead, the focus in markets may well be on any headlines which come from the General Debate of the UN General Assembly. President Trump is to due address the Assembly (time 10:15 EST/ 15:15 BST) while Japan PM Shinzo Abe is also due to meet Trump on the sidelines to discuss trade while EU Trade Commissioner Malmstrom is due to meet with US Trade Representative Lighthizer as well as Japan’s Economy Minister Seko on the subject of trade and the WTO. Outside of that the data releases are mostly second tier. In Europe we’ll get September confidence indicators in France while in the US we get the July FHFA house price index and S&P CoreLogic house price index, along with September consumer confidence data and the September Richmond Fed manufacturing index.

US Event Calendar

• 9am: FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.25%, prior 0.2%
• 9am: Case Shiller 20-City MoM SA, est. 0.1%, prior 0.11%; YoY NSA, est. 6.2%, prior 6.31%
• 10am: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. 20, prior 24
• 10am: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 132.1, prior 133.4; Present Situation, prior 172.2; Conf. Board Expectations, prior 107.6

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Draghi’s comments yesterday (see below) led to a rates selloff that pushed 10yr yields up 3-6bps across most of Europe yesterday – BTPs +11.9bps due also to politics – with Bunds in particular closing at 0.507% (+4.9bps) and to the highest since 23 May just before Italy’s politics took a turn for the worse. Yields are now up 32.2bps from the intraday May lows and 20.8bps from the August lows. 10yr Treasuries out-performed but still closed 2.6bps higher at 3.090%.

Draghi spoke in the early afternoon to the European Parliament in Brussels and said that “underlying inflation is expected to increase further over the coming months as the tightening labour market is pushing up wage growth” and also that “domestic price pressures are strengthening and broadening”. There was also plenty of excitement when Draghi said that he sees a “relatively vigorous” pickup in underlying inflation however this language was used in reference to ECB staff projections of a pickup in future underlying inflation offsetting slowing non-core components so it was a little misleading that this got all the initial attention. Draghi also endorsed current market pricing with respect to forward guidance and downplayed any conditionality of an end of asset purchases by year end. DB broadly agrees with Draghi’s comment, and we expect core inflation to hit 1.3% by year-end and to average 1.5% next year, enough to justify our call for a September 2019 rate hike.

The euro also rose sharply post the comments, though it subsequently pared back the move into the close to end the session flat versus the dollar. That initial Euro strength seemed to partly weigh on equity markets in the region although to be fair they were already weak going into the headlines. The STOXX 600 eventually ended -0.56% and the DAX and CAC -0.64% and -0.33% respectively. In the US it was much the same with markets also dealing with the news (per Bloomberg) that Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein will meet with President Trump on Thursday to possibly resign – adding to the political volatility around the Russia investigation. The S&P 500 and the DOW closed -0.35% and -0.68% lower, respectively, while the NASDAQ advanced +0.08%. If you were wondering which assets actually had a good day yesterday then the Oil complex ticks that box with Brent (+3.05%) and WTI (+1.84%) both rallying. The key driver was the weekend news that OPEC and its allies seemingly are in no rush to raise output. Talk of $100/bbl Brent is now becoming more frequent. That would certainly flush out inflation.

This morning in Asia sentiment is a lot more mixed. The Nikkei (+0.17%) is slightly higher – albeit for the seventh session in succession – having reopened from a long weekend however bourses in China (Shanghai Comp -0.76%) are much weaker and clearly impacted by the weekend trade news. Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen has also reiterated overnight that trade talks have stalled and that China won’t talk under when the US is “putting a knife on China’s neck”.

The ASX (+0.02%) is more or less flat while markets in Hong Kong and South Korea are both closed. Futures in the US are slightly in the red while the rate selloff has continued across much of the Asia region – with 10y yields in the likes of Australia 4.6bps higher.

Moving on. With just two days until the 2019 budget deadline in Italy, there’s an unsurprising steady stream of daily headlines for markets to digest. After Messaggero reiterated that Finance Minister Tria was aiming to fix the deficit at 1.6%, Repubblica reported that Five Star were pushing for 2.6%. As seen above BTPs were a bit nervous yesterday in light of the week ahead. Headlines from Italian newswires tend to come out just as we go to print so expect more shortly. In other markets yesterday, it was a relatively soft day for EM FX (-0.24%) and EM equities (-0.86%). Argentina’s assets generally sold off, with 10-year bond yields 21bps higher, the Peso -0.22% weaker, and benchmark equities down -3.39% after the news that the country was in talks for an increase to its $50bn credit line with the IMF. Argentina’s President Mauricio Macri actually said yesterday in an interview with Bloomberg TV that there is “zero chance” of Argentina defaulting again. Given that Argentina has defaulted on its sovereign debt a total of 8 times since independence in 1816, history would suggest slightly more prudence here.

On the economic data front, surveys were relatively strong in Germany and the US. The German IFO business confidence survey printed at 103.7 from 103.8. Both the current assessment and the forward-looking expectations sub-indexes beat expectations. In the US, surveys from the Chicago and Dallas Federal Reserve Banks both printed in expansionary territory. Overall yesterday’s data continued to signal growth near the top of its post-recession range.

Looking at the day ahead, the focus in markets may well be on any headlines which come from the General Debate of the UN General Assembly. President Trump is to due address the Assembly (time 10:15 EST/ 15:15 BST) while Japan PM Shinzo Abe is also due to meet Trump on the sidelines to discuss trade while EU Trade Commissioner Malmstrom is due to meet with US Trade Representative Lighthizer as well as Japan’s Economy Minister Seko on the subject of trade and the WTO. Outside of that the data releases are mostly second tier. In Europe we’ll get September confidence indicators in France while in the US we get the July FHFA house price index and S&P CoreLogic house price index, along with September consumer confidence data and the September Richmond Fed manufacturing index. Outside of that, BoJ Governor Kuroda is due to speak just after we go to print, while the ECB’s Praet and Coeure also speak at various stages today. It will be interesting to hear after Draghi yesterday.

Finally look out for the Brexit debate at the U.K. Labour Party conference today. It may start to shape their policy going forward which will be especially important if a general election is the only way out of the current Brexit impasse. Some kind of second referendum may start to gather momentum in the opposition party after today although not necessarily an in/out one which may disappointment many in the party. Bloomberg reported last night that Labour is also planning to vote down PM May’s Brexit deal.

via RSS https://ift.tt/2NDH7Vr Tyler Durden

Facebook shares dropped 2% in premarket trading on Tuesday after the co-founders of Instagram, the company’s fast-growing photo-sharing app, decided to leave Facebook under mysterious circumstances amid alleged clashes with CEO Mark Zuckerberg, deepening an executive exodus that has intensified over the past six months as Facebook struggled with accusations of Russian interference and the rolling fallout of the Cambridge Analytica scandal.

According to the Financial Times, Instagram founders Kevin Systrom and Mike Krieger are leaving the photo-sharing app that they sold to Facebook for $1 billion back in 2012. With the departure of Systrom and Krieger, the founders of Facebook’s biggest acquisitions have now left the company.

Their departure comes less than six months after WhatsApp’s founders Jan Koum and Brian Acton quit the US social media group, after clashing with Facebook chief executive Mark Zuckerberg over privacy and data protection in the wake of the Cambridge Analytica scandal.

Including the departure of Oculus VR co-founder Palmer Luckey 18 months ago, the founders of Facebook’s three biggest acquisitions have now all left the company.

Bloomberg provides some context to the departure, reporting that Systrom and Krieger had been able to keep the brand and product independent while relying on Facebook’s infrastructure and resources to grow. But lately, “they grew frustrated with an uptick in day-to-day involvement by Zuckerberg, who has become more reliant on Instagram in planning for Facebook’s future.”

The departure of Systrom and Krieger follows several high-profile executive departures at Facebook, including that of Chief Security Officer Alex Stamos, who famously suggested that the company was pressured into finding “evidence” pointing to Russia’s purported interference in the 2016 election, and Product Chief Chris Cox, who was put in charge of the “family of apps” that includes Instagram, WhatsApp, Messenger and Facebook.

Systrom said in a blog post that the two men are “grateful for the last eight years” and the opportunity to grow the team from “13 people to more than a thousand”. He added that the two men would be taking some time off before their next venture.

Mike and I are grateful for the last eight years at Instagram and six years with the Facebook team. We’ve grown from 13 people to over a thousand with offices around the world, all while building products used and loved by a community of over one billion. We’re now ready for our next chapter.

We’re planning on taking some time off to explore our curiosity and creativity again. Building new things requires that we step back, understand what inspires us and match that with what the world needs; that’s what we plan to do.

We remain excited for the future of Instagram and Facebook in the coming years as we transition from leaders to two users in a billion. We look forward to watching what these innovative and extraordinary companies do next.

As one VC said, the two founders leaving Instagram is “a real moment”.

Wow. @mikeyk and @kevin leaving Instagram is a real moment. I figured they would leave at some point, but what an impact they’ve had on all of us. Maybe my favorite mobile native app of all time. 👏

— John Lilly (@johnolilly) September 25, 2018

Shortly after Facebook bought the app for roughly $1 billion, its rapid user growth sent its valuation to $100 billion, according to Bloomberg intelligence.

The deal immediately turned Mr. Systrom and Mr. Krieger into millionaires many times over.

The deal immediately turned Mr. Systrom and Mr. Krieger into millionaires many times over. Instagram has since been valued at 100 times that $1 billion acquisition price by Bloomberg Intelligence, a sizable return on investment on paper.

And Zuckerberg followed up his Instagram buy with the $19 billion purchase of Whatsapp, according to the NYT.

Facebook went on to purchase Parse, a service that provided tools for mobile developers, and Oculus, a virtual reality hardware start-up, branching into new areas beyond the original social network. Mr. Zuckerberg also spent $19 billion to buy WhatsApp.

While Instagram was relatively scandal-free when compared with Facebook’s main product and its other apps, their departure raises questions about a possible falling-out with Zuckerberg. To wit, six months earlier, WhatsApp founders Jan Koum and Brian Acton quit after reportedly clashing with Zuckerberg over privacy issues.

What’s more, the departures of Systrom and Krieger followed the departure of Marne Levine, who was previously Instagram’s chief operating officer and left her role at Instagram earlier this month to return to Facebook and lead partnerships. All of this begs the question: Who will lead Instagram during the coming months and years, which are bound to be a crucial time for Facebook and its portfolio of apps.

via RSS https://ift.tt/2xNuxIe Tyler Durden

Authored by Kai Weiss via The Mises Institute,

Elections are just around the corner in Bavaria, Germany’s largest andeconomically strongest state.

On October 14, Bavarians will go the polls to elect a new state government. One thing that is already sure is that the Left Party, Germany’s mainstream socialist party, will not have much success. It is currently polling around three to four percent, far away from the usual ten percent it has countrywide and below the threshold of five percent to have seats in the Bavarian parliament.

Seemingly this has led to some desperation in the ranks of the party. Socialism and Christianity have always had a rough going with one another, to say it mildly. All the more surprised I was when I spotted the following billboard of the Left Party recently in my hometown Regensburg (which is in Bavaria):

It says:

“More sharing.

More peace.

More brotherly love.

Jesus would have voted for us.”

As a practicing Catholic, this left me in slight bewilderment to say the least. Of course, these assertions are mere political opportunism. Bavaria is one of the most conservative and religious states in Germany. It is also a Catholic stronghold – 58.6 percent of Bavarians are Catholic. Bavarians don’t like extremism: in contrast to many other places in Germany, they are as much anti-communist as anti-fascist. The usual reaction of Bavarians when they see a Nazi or socialist would be disgust coupled with thinking that this guy should get off his high horse quickly (this reaction holds true for most other extremes – including libertarianism, as I have been happy to find out. over the years). This is the reason why the Left, generally much disliked in Bavaria, is attempting to suddenly be religious.

But what is the track record of socialists, and more so, the Left Party, on religion? Of course, Karl Marx himself once noted that “religion is the opium of the people” – which is bad, since in their view Communism should be the opium — should be what people believe in — not some mystic Church from the Dark Ages.

Thus, the conflict between socialism and the Church began quickly – a conflict which is continuing to this day when we look to China. It was a dominant factor in Communist regimes of the twentieth century, where the despots tried to subordinate the Church and eliminate religion once and for all. But again and again, Christianity stood tall. Indeed, it spurred the “ revolution of conscience” in Eastern Europe, especially in Poland, where Pope John Paul II played an instrumental part in the fall of the Soviet Union.

Similar things happened in East Germany – or officically the German Democratic Republic (GDR), which was long barred from the virtues of Western liberal values – and barred they literally were with a wall surrounding them.

This is especially interesting considering Germany’s Left Party is the direct successor of the Socialist Unity Party of Germany (SED) which held East Germany in an iron grip for many decades. And yes, strangely enough, religion was suppressed there as well. In 1950, before Communism truly took hold in the country, 95 percent of Eastern Germans were religious. In 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell, it was only 30 percent. Today, what as once East Germany is still considered the “most godless place on the planet,” with more than half of the people saying they don’t believe a God exists.

It was the result of decades of attempts to suppress religion by the SED – again, the direct forerunner of the Left Party. This Communist regime actively propagated a materialist and atheist world view, instituted “Communist rites” as a substitute to mass, and tried in many way to suppress Christianity, especially in the early stages of the GDR.

Starting in the late 1970s, the peaceful rebellion of the Church increasingly gained steam. It organized peace movements, for instance the “Swords into Plowshares.” It welcomed people who wanted to live a different life than the SED chose for them – from punks, who were allowed to do concerts in Church buildings, to helping those who tried to flee the country. It went so far that in 1988, Erich Hoenecker, the General Secretary, i.e. the head of state, called the actions of the Church “counterrevolutionary.” From rounds of prayers in the St. Nikolai Church in Leipzig, the peaceful revolution, with the famous “Monday Revolutions,” sprang forth, which ultimately led to the end of the regime.

There are many arguments to be made that Jesus was neither a socialist nor would have ever voted for them – and they have been made better than I ever could. Of course, socialism doesn’t lead to “more sharing” – it leads to more taking forcefully from one to give it to others. It doesn’t lead to “more peace” – it leads to destruction and death. And it doesn’t lead to “more brotherly love” – it leads to distrust among one another. All the more, not even The Left’s official campaign slogan “more for the majority” holds true – after all, it leads to less for everyone except a tiny elite.

The assertion, however, that Jesus would have voted for all of this, for the party which suppressed Christianity for decades, the party which the Church fought against for decades and ultimately peacefully put out of power, and the party which normally never talks about anything religious approvingly (as long as elections are not in a religious state), is nothing but abominable. In a sense, however, it should leave us feeling good: it shows that Germany’s socialists have to be very desperate right now.

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A spokesman for Turkish President Erdogan said during a Friday press conference that “operations” have been ordered against Turkey’s political enemies, including those on US soil. 

“Our relevant units and institutions will continue their operations in the countries the FETO operates in whether it be the U.S. or some other country,” said spokesman Ibrahim Kalin, describing how Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization, MIT, would target followers of Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen worldwide. 

“Rest assured that they will feel Turkey breathing down their neck,” added Kalin. 

Erdogan has been cracking down on Gulen’s network, which is said to be in the millions, while Gulen himself lives in exile in Pennsylvania following the failed July 15, 2016 coup attempt that resulted in over 250 deaths and the imprisonment of thousands of suspected dissidents. 

In March, MIT officials kidnapped six Turkish nationals in Kosovo to stand trial in Turkey for their support of Gulen. The incident caused international outrage. 

“Operations similar to the one conducted in Kosovo can be carried out in other countries. All should know that Turkey will not allow the FETO to breathe a sigh of relief,” Kalin told reporters Friday, adding that Erdogan “has given very clear instructions on this issue.”

Friday’s announcement marks the most extreme steps taken by Ankara against Erdogan’s enemies. As the Daily Caller‘s Chuck Ross notes: 

Operations in the U.S. have yet to go as far as the Kosovo incident.

Instead, the Turkish government has hired several lobbying firms and lawyers to debilitate a network of charter schools operated by Gulen’s followers. The lobbyists have also pressed officials in both the Obama and Trump administrations to extradite Gulen, who has lived in the U.S. since 1999.

Perhaps the most high-profile lobbyist for Turkey was Michael Flynn, the former national security adviser to President Donald Trump. A Turkish businessman linked to the government hired Flynn to investigate Gulen during the 2016 campaign. Flynn and the businessman, Ekim Alptekin, discussed kidnapping Gulen and returning him to Turkey, according to reports. –Daily Caller

Meanwhile, Turkey has been intimidating enemies of the state living in US exile. As the Caller reported last year, “at least six academics and journalists living in exile in the states were tracked and photographed by Turkish news outlets.”

Since Turkish media is largely under Erdogan’s control, outlets published photos and videos of exiles during routine activities such as shopping, running errands and even picking up their children from a swimming pool. 

A Gulen-aligned nonprofit, the Alliance for Shared Values, told the Daily Caller that “Rather than being ashamed of such operations, they are boasting about them,” adding “Any actual efforts should be met swiftly with the full force of the United States government.”

Emre Uslu, a former editor at Today’s Zaman, a now-defunct newspaper that was controlled by Gulen supporters, has become one of Erdogan’s main U.S.-based targets. He has been included on a list of Erdogan critics sought for return to Turkey and was tracked by Turkish media outlets near his home in Virginia.

Erodgan supporters have also openly discussed on Turkish television the idea of kidnapping Uslu from the U.S. and returning him to Turkey.

“Turkey is no longer a stable country that one would be able to predict what its leaders would do,” Uslu told TheDCNF. “There is a possibility that operatives who wanted to further deteriorate the U.S.-Turkey relations would attempt to carry operations in the U.S.” –Daily Caller

Usulu fears that he will be targeted in any “operations” on American soil, and fears assassination – pointing to the 2013 Paris murder of three Kurdish activists. French authorities believe MIT was responsible. 

Another journalist targeted by Erdogan, Aydogan Vatandas, doesn’t think Erdogan’s threat is that serious – telling the Caller that while MIT is more than capable of running operations in the US, he thinks Kalin’s statements are more likely aimed at tamping down protests against Erdogan’s visit to the UN General Assembly. 

“The Turkish Intelligence is capable of carrying out this kind of activities in the U.S. There is no doubt about this,” Vatandas, a former reporter at Today’s Zaman, told TheDCNF. But he said that he does not believe that the Turkish government would jeopardize its already-frayed relationship in the U.S. by carrying out illegal activities on U.S. soil. –Daily Caller

“Mr. Kalin actually aims to frighten the opponents for potential demonstrations while Erdogan is in NY next week for U.N. Summit,” Vatandas added.

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Authored by Tom Luongo,

Since its first announcement I have been convinced the Nordstream 2 pipeline would be built.  I have followed every twist of this story from my days writing for Newsmax.

And the reason for my confidence can be summed up in one word.  Money.

Nordstream 2 simply makes too much economic sense for any amount of political whining from the U.S. and Poland to stop it. 

Poland has no power within the European Union. Germany does. 

And while I’m no fan of Angela Merkel getting another political weapon to hold over the heads of the Poles, their attempts to derail the project were always going to end in tears for them.

And so now Poland and the U.S. cried a lot of crocodile tears recently when President Trump finally acceded to reality and ended the threat of sanctioning five of the biggest oil majors in the world over doing business with Gazprom over Nordstream 2.

Nordstream 2’s investors are Uniper, OMV, Wintershall, Royal Dutch Shell and Engie.  After all the permits were issued and construction begun the only thing that could stop Nordstream from happening was these five companies folding to U.S. pressure and backing out of the project by calling in their loans to Gazprom.

And when they were unwilling to do that, Trump had to fold because you can’t cut these companies out of the western banking system and starve them of dollars and euros without an extreme dislocation in oil prices and global trade.

Bluff called.  Nordstream 2?  Holding Aces.

Trump?  Holding two-seven offsuit.

Lack of Polish

The big loser here is Poland unless they come down off their Russophobic high horse.

Why is Nordstream 2 so important to Poland?  Because it forces Poland into choosing between two things the current ruling Law and Justice Party doesn’t like.

1. Renegotiating a gas transit deal with Gazprom through Ukrainian pipelines without as much leverage.  Because the current agreement expires at the end of 2019.

2. If they reject this first option then they are at the mercy of buying gas from Nordstream 2 putting them politically in the hands of Germany.

Merkel is angry with Poland for trying to assert its sovereignty having begun Article 7 proceedings over their law putting Supreme Court justices under review from the legislature, which the EU has termed a violation of its pledge to protect ‘human rights.’

And so, expect Poland to now open up talks with Gazprom to negotiate a new deal or be stupid and buy LNG from the U.S. at two to three times the price they can get it from Gazprom.

Keeping Them Distant

From the U.S. side of the equation there are few things in this life that Donald Trump and Barack Obama agree upon, and stopping Nordstream 2 was one of them.  This, of course, tells you that this opposition is coming from somewhere a lot higher than the Presidency.

U.S. and British foreign policy has been obsessed for more than a hundred years with stopping the natural alliance between Germany’s industrial base and Russia’s vast tracts of natural resources as well as Russia’s own science and engineering prowess.

These two countries cannot, in any version of a unipolar world dominated by The Davos Crowd, be allowed to form an economic no less political alliance because the level of coordination and economic prosperity works directly against their goals of lowering everyone’s expectations for what humans can accomplish.

That is their greatest source of power.  The complacency of our accepting low expectations.

So, Donald Trump finally folding on stopping Nordstream 2 is yet another example of the limits of what power the U.S. has and of its threats.  When he denounced the project he said,

“I never thought it was appropriate. I think it’s ridiculous. And I think it’s certainly a very bad thing for the people of Germany. And I’ve said it very loud and clear.”

But notice that he never said why.

Because there is no downside for Germany.  That’s the point.  Russian piped gas is simply cheaper and more reliable than LNG produced more than 3000 miles away.

The downside is for the U.S.

It begins the process of Germany and Russia re-establishing stronger economic ties cut in half by the 2014 sanctions over Crimea.  It keeps Merkel in power a little while longer having stood up to the bully Trump and showing some German independence.

This is something she sorely needs right now coming into regional elections in October.

Most importantly, this gas will be paid for in euros, not dollars.  And this further undermines the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions as Gazprom will have a steady supply of euros to pay back its investors and diversify Russia’s currency reserves.

The Flow of Money

There is no way for U.S. LNG supplies to be competitive in Europe without massive artificial barriers-to-entry for Russian gas.  And even if Nordstream 2 was somehow stopped by the U.S., Russia’s massive Yamal LNG facility on the Baltic Sea would still out compete U.S LNG from Cheniere’s terminal in Louisiana.

Location. Location. Location.

We saw this last winter when vicious cold snaps forced a hostile Britain to buy a few tankers of Yamal LNG from Novatek to keep its citizens from freezing. With the planet cooling rapidly, expect this source of spot demand to Europe to increase.

And this is why Russia also benefits from Poland building an LNG terminal. Because don’t for a second think Poles will suffer extreme cold because Andrej Duda hates Russians.

That’s just funny, right thar!

But, for Germany, and the EU as a whole, more cheap energy is the path to remaining somewhat relevant in the global economy.   With Germany ending the use of nuclear power it needs the type of energy Nordstream 2 supplies.

In fact, Germany will eventually need Nordstream 3.

Each intervention by the U.S. or one of its satraps (and Poland’s leadership certainly fills that bill) to block any further business between Russia and Europe, but especially Germany, keeps the world on edge and inches us closer to a military confrontation while open trade and travel moves us farther from that outcome.

And anyone who argues otherwise is simply talking their book.  They profit from war and tension.  They profit from manipulating markets and, in effect, stealing the wealth someone else created.

So, this is not to say that Nordstream 2 is some kind of messianic gift from the gods or anything.  It is the result of massive interventions into the free market for energy born of necessity in a world governed by nation-states for more powerful than they have any right to be because of control of the issuance of money and the rent-seeking behavior of the people who most benefit from the creation of endless supplies of that money.

But, that said, in the current state of things, rapprochement between Germany and Russia via projects like the Nordstream 2 points us towards a future without such nonsense.

I said points, not achieves.  It’s a beginning not an end.  Lost in all of this discussion of European energy security is the fact that even at the height of the Cold War the U.S.S.R. never once shut off gas supplies to its enemies.  And under Putin that fact remains.

And how’s that for an inconvenient truth.

*  *  *

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According to GEFIRA’s source, these migrants left Algeria.

Morocco, Algeria, Libya and Turkey are functioning now as transit countries while neither Frontex nor the European Union are showing any signs to solve the problems.

A total of 152 immigrants aboard 13 pateras have been rescued while they were adrift in Cartagena waters.

The navigators have been assisted by Red Cross personnel.

Once identified, they have been taken into the custody of the National Police, which processes the documents.

 Source Telecartagena

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Authored by Heni Nsaibia via The National Interest,

The first documented U.S. direct military engagement in Tunisia since World War II has largely passed unnoticed…

Last month, a U.S. Africa Command spokesperson confirmed in a Task & Purpose report that Marine Corps Raiders were involved in a fierce battle in 2017 in an unnamed North African country, where they fought beside partner forces against militants of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). AFRICOM acknowledged that two Marines received citations for valor but withheld certain details, such as the location – undisclosed due to “classification considerations, force protection, and diplomatic sensitivities.” The command also said the Marine Special Operations unit was engaged while on a three-day train, advise and assist operation. However, subsequent research and analysis strongly suggest U.S. involvement runs much deeper. In fact, the dramatic events described in the award citations obtained by Task & Purpose align with those that took place in Tunisia, which has been combatting a low-level insurgency in its western borderlands for the past seven years. Evidence indicates the battle occurred at Mount Semmama, a mountain range in the Kasserine governorate, near the Algerian border. There, the United States sustained its first casualty in action in Tunisia since World War II.

While not of the same magnitude, the events that AFRICOM confirmed took place on Feb. 28, 2017, echo a disastrous ambush less than seven months later in the village of Tongo Tongo, Niger. In that battle, members of the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara killed four Army Special Forces soldiers and four Nigerien partners. U.S. partner forces engaged militants of AQIM’s Tunisian branch, the Uqba ibn Nafaa Battalion (KUBN) in a firefight, which resulted in the killing of one militant. The engagement also necessitated a request for air support to rout the militants. The jihadis then attempted to flank the joint U.S.-Tunisian force from the rear, forcing the Marines to return fire. While engaged on the ground, U.S. forces were also part of the air-support component. When a Tunisian soldier manning an M60 machine gun aboard a helicopter sustained wounds after being shot twice by militants returning accurate fire, a U.S. Marine Raider took control of the machine gun to maintain suppressive fire against the militants and simultaneously treated the wounded Tunisian soldier. The Marine Raider unit and their Tunisian partner force each sustained one casualty in the battle, both of whom recovered from their wounds. At the time, local media reported the incident without alluding to any U.S. participation.

Eventually, Tunisian forces secured the site of the battle and seized an Austrian Steyr AUG rifle, ammunition, and other supplies. Two jihadis were killed in action: a Tunisian and an Algerian. The latter was a veteran insurgent who was wounded a decade earlier by a U.S. airstrike while fighting under the banner of Al Qaeda in Iraq, according to a biographical note published by Al Qaeda’s North African affiliate. However, any U.S. involvement in connection to his death was never mentioned.

The United States has maintained a military presence in Tunisia for at least four-and-a-half years, rendering it unlikely that the events of Mount Semmama were an isolated incident limited to a mere advisory role, as the AFRICOM spokesperson claimed. The battle involving U.S. troops occurred amid an intense campaign aimed at dislodging militants from their mountain stronghold. Eleven days before the jointly conducted U.S.-Tunisia operation, another operation had taken place at a nearby location at Mount Semmama, also resulting in the killing of two militants. It is presently unknown whether U.S. troops participated in the preceding operation. It remains an open question as to whether the knowledge of the U.S. encounter in Kasserine would have eventually surfaced had Task & Purpose not filed a Freedom of Information Act request. It was that request which prompted AFRICOM’s release of the partially redacted commendations for valor awarded to two Marine Raiders for their actions at Mount Semmama.

Since its 2010 revolution, Tunisia has carried a burden of expectations as a regional model for democracy, challenged with building political consensus, a staggering economy, a population yearning for progress, and rising security challenges. In this context, the United States has sought to sustain Tunisia’s shaky democratic transition primarily by shoring up its military, which received steadily increasing security assistance from 2014 to 2017. Tunisia now receives more U.S. defense aid than any other country in North Africa and the Sahel region, except for Egypt.

The U.S. military presence has been continuous since February 2014, when the Pentagon deployed a team of several dozen special operations troops to a remote base in western Tunisia. Tunisian soldiers accompanied by U.S. military advisors have on at least one occasion discovered and observed a populated militant camp in Kasserine. In the years since, the Air Force component of AFRICOM has frequently flown intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance missions across Tunisia from bases in Sigonella and Pantelleria, Italy. In the wake of the March 2015 terrorist attack at the Bardo Museum in Tunis, U.S. forces provided operational assistance to a counterterrorism operation targeting core members of KUBN in the town of Sidi Aich, Gafsa. U.S. staff and drones have also operated out of the Sidi Ahmed Air Base in Bizerte.

The U.S.-Tunisia partnership in the military and security domain is multifaceted. It is composed of defense capacity-building, strengthening border security, and as is so often emphasized, training partner forces in counterterrorism strategies and tactics. However, the questions of U.S. troops and drones operated out of Tunisia have been a source of polemic and its sensitivity should not be underestimated. American foreign policy is generally unpopular and unfavorable attitudes toward the United States are widespread in Tunisian society. For instance, in 2012 protesters outraged by an anti-Islamic short film ransacked the U.S. embassy and set fire to a nearby American school in the capital of Tunis. More recently, the U.S. decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital triggered a wave of protests across Tunisia. The issue of U.S. military presence has also sparked controversy, being the subject of heated debates at the Assembly of the Representatives of the People, Tunisia’s parliament. On numerous occasions, there has been pressure on President Béji Caid Essebsi and Prime Minister Youssef Chahed on the matter of national sovereignty. Furthermore, the revelation of the clash in Kasserine eighteen months ago testifies to a deeper level U.S. involvement on the ground than AFRICOM is willing to admit. The details of the 2017 battle at Mount Semmama contribute to a slowly growing public understanding of the expansion of covert and overt military action on the African continent, where the United States is secretly at war.

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For years, the migration crisis has divided Europe, empowering a populist tidal wave across the continent. According to Eurostat, the number of first time asylum applications in 2017 was 650,000 – substantially lower than in 2016 (1.2 million) and 2015 (1.26 million). However, as Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes, while tensions are still high despite that decline, a new Pew Research survey has found taking in refugees is not the key issue. In fact, most countries have a major problem with how the EU is handling the crisis.

Pew found that sizeable majorities in Spain, Germany, France and Sweden all support taking in people fleeing violence and war. Even in the UK where Brexit has caused enormous uncertainty and the subject of migration provokes bitter debates, 74 percent of those polled said they favor taking in refugees. In Europe, Hungary is an exception to the supportive trend with 54 percent saying they oppose taking in refugees. In an unprecedented move last week, the European Parliament backed sanctions against Hungary and its right-wing Orban-led government, accusing it of corruption and human rights violations.

You will find more infographics at Statista

While support for taking in refugees is strong in most EU countries, Pew found that there is widespread disapproval of how the EU is handling the situation. 92 percent of respondents in Greece, 84 percent in Sweden and 80 percent in Hungary all believe the EU is mishandling the crisis. Even in countries where support for taking in refugees is highest, criticism of the EU remains strong. In Germany and France, the share of dissaproval is 66 percent and 74 percent respectively.

Elsewhere in the world, the picture is more mixed when it comes to helping refugees. While opposition is very strong to taking in refugees in South Africa (50 percent) and Russia (47 percent), it is lower in Australia, Japan and the United States. Looking at the latter, 66 percent of people support taking in refugees while 29 percent are opposed.

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Authored by Federico Pieraccini via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

Military and economic tensions are increasing due to the ramped-up warlike-stance of the US establishment. The impossibility of halting the shifting world order in favor of prolonging the unipolar moment has left the US deep state reaching for any available weapon at hand, taking no heed of the dangers and consequences of such a reckless foreign policy.

With the province of Idlib ever closer to being liberated from terrorists by the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), the tensions between the US and Syria (and Syria’s allies) are rising. Every significant military campaign by the SAA seems to be accompanied by the usual alarms and false reports emanating from the Western media and governments warning of an imminent (staged) use of chemical weapons by the SAA. Tensions are rising as several American voices, including that of the President, have expressed the desire to strike Syria over any alleged use of chemical weapons, without even waiting for any independent verification. Threats by the US, the UK and France to bomb Russian troops in Syria are voiced everyday on Western media. The insanity is reaching disturbing levels.

These developments in Syria appear to be accompanied by the persistent attempts of Ukraine and the United States to sabotage the Minsk agreements, re-igniting the conflict in order to blame it on Russia. The assassination of Aleksandr Zakharchenko, charismatic leader of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), killed a few days ago in a terrorist attack, should be seen in this light.

More false accusations against Moscow, this time of having poisoned former Russian spy Sergei Skripal in the UK, follow on from allegations of Moscow interfering in the US presidential election. Added to this situation of rising tensions between great powers are the constant threats, together with economic and financial warfare, directed at Iran by Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United States.

It is not surprising that, given this context, the Russian Federation has just carried out the greatest military exercise in its history. The Vostok 2018 military exercise is extensively described by TASS:

The Vostok 2018 troop exercises have started in Russia’s Far East. Taking part in the drills are about 300,000 Russian troops, over 1,000 aircraft, helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles, up to 36,000 tanks, armored personnel carriers and other vehicles, up to 80 ships and supply vessels. Exercises similar in scale have not been held since 1981 when the Zapad-81 drills that involved about 100,000 troops were held in the Soviet Union’s Belarusian, Kiev and Baltic Military Districts and in the Baltic Sea.

It should not come as a surprise that the People’s Republic of China has sent thousands of men and materiel to participate in the exercise, sending a clear message to Washington and the West. As the West’s warmongering continues, this widely controversial article in The Atlantic came out and provides the following hint:

The inclusion of a relatively small Chinese contingent in this year’s edition [Vostok 2018 military exercise] is not quite the signal of a military alliance that some see, but it has certainly made the West take notice. It’s hard to escape the symbolism when as Russian and Chinese troops were training together, Putin and Xi Jinping were holding a summit and pledging closer business and political cooperation. At a time when Washington and Europe have tried to isolate Moscow diplomatically, this is clearly intended as a message that Putin is still capable of making connections with countries not willing to follow the West.

The Eastern Economic Forum held in Vladivostok marks yet another significant point in the new Sino-Russian strategy to isolate and limit Western-induced chaos, strengthen the support for countries affected in one way or another by Washington, and expand cooperation in every direction possible. The economic ties between the two countries’ production systems deserve attention, especially in light of future agreements between the industrial giants of the two countries. The partnership is broad and goes far beyond the territories of Russia and China. Technological cooperation is expanding in regions such as Africa and South East Asia, often symbiotically offering important agreements to third countries. Civil nuclear energy and arms sales seem to be Moscow’s speciality, just as generous loans and joint development of basic resources (hospitals, schools, water networks, sewerage, motorways, ports) are Beijing’s. Such offers of assistance are important for capturing not only the attention of Third World countries keen to break free from the West’s colonial chains, but also of those countries that need to transition quickly into the new multipolar world order.

An example is Japan, with Abe also present in Vladivostok, exploring ways to balance the Chinese expansion in Asia. In reality, such a reading belongs very much to the Western way of thinking, in which everything must be seen in zero-sum terms. What many in the West struggle to understand, especially among European and American journalists and analysts, is how Washington’s attitude over recent years is actually serving to push together the four Euro-Asian giants of China, Russia, Japan and India. While maintaining sometimes strong ties with the West, the trend is decidedly different from the past. Abe was in discussion with Putin to sign the long-awaited peace agreement between the two countries. India seems increasingly anxious to expand its strategic independence, especially from an energy point of view, cooperating with Iran and ignoring Western sanctions, and from a military standpoint, buying the S-400 air defence system.

In general, a multipolar environment of international relations already prevails in vast areas of the planet, both from a military and economic standpoint. De-dollarization appears to be an inevitable trend for the purposes of achieving significant economic sovereignty, thereby avoiding the vulnerability of US-dollar blackmail as a destabilization tool used by Washington and the Federal Reserve. With an imminent economic crisis in the West, fuelled and exacerbated by more than ten years of artificially printed money (quantitative easing), an economic prophylactic is a priority for Washington’s declared rivals (Iran, China, Russia). The consequences for the international financial system could be much more serious than the two previous crises of 1929 and 2008, especially according to Chris Hedge in his recent analysis.

Unprecedented joint military exercises, economic cooperation as a means of diversification, strategic partnerships – these have become normal in Eurasia, especially for Russia, China and Iran, who continue to advance their formula for overcoming the chaos wrought by Washington and her Israeli and Saudi sidekicks. The prevailing modus operandi of Western policy-makers for countries they cannot control seems to be to sic onto them the dogs of chaos and destabilization in order to destroy them. This can be seen, for example, in the assassination of Zakharchenko in eastern Ukraine (Donbass) by the Kiev junta, probably even employing elements of Daesh or al Qaeda; the same tools used by the US in the Middle East to sow chaos.

The situation is not different in Syria, with Washington, London and Paris intent on stopping the liberation of Idlib, a remaining pocket containing thousands of Al Qaeda-affiliated terrorists. Seventeen years after September 11th 2001, the United States unstintingly supports the terrorists who, according to the official story, killed thousands of its own civilians on home soil.

Logic and reason seem to have been abandoned long ago in Washington’s decision-making, even more so given that Trump has completely renounced all his electoral promises regarding foreign policy. The rapprochement with Moscow is now a distant mirage; the special relationship between Xi Jinping and Trump is just the latter’s propaganda, anxious as he is to reach an agreement with the DPRK and show some example of success to his base.

The logic of imposing more than $200 billion in tariffs on Chinese products, and then asking for strong support from Beijing in mediation with Pyongyang, seems more like the moves of a desperate person rather than those of an amateur. Even historical allies like South Korea, Pakistan, India and Turkey, as repeatedly stressed recently, fear Washington’s irrationality and politics of “America First” and are running for cover. They are diversifying energy resources and ignoring American diktats, buying armaments from Russia, cooperating with China in large infrastructure projects to connect the vast Eurasian continent, and participating in economic and financial forums to diversify funding and cooperate on a new and industrial level.

Indeed, the strategic triangle that emerges between Tehran, Beijing and Moscow, seems to draw all the neighbouring countries into a large geopolitical waltz. A transition to a multipolar reality brings many advantages to Washington’s allies, but it also brings many tensions with American oligarchs. The example of the sale of the S-400 in Ankara is an important wake-up call for the oligarchs of the American military-industrial complex, who see a potential loss in revenue. In the same way, the creation of an alternative system to SWIFT strongly reduces the centrality of American banking institutions and thus their political weight. We must also keep in mind Sino-Russian actions in Africa, which are progressively breaking the chains of Western neo-colonialism, thereby freeing African countries to pursue a more balanced foreign policy focused on their national interests.

This transition phase that we have been living in over the last few years will continue for some time. Like an already written script, the trend is easily discernible to a lucid mind free of Western propaganda. Erdogan certainly is not a person to be completely trusted, and the talks in Astana should be understood in this light, especially if viewed from the Russian-Iranian point of view. Yet such cooperation opens the door to an unprecedented future, although at present Astana seems more like an alternative to a bloody war between countries in Syria than a conversation between allies. Syria’s future will unavoidably see the country’s territorial integrity maintained, thanks to allies who are now disengaged from the Western system and are gravitating around centers of power opposed to Washington, namely Beijing, Moscow and Tehran.

The reconstruction of the country will bypass western sanctions and bring significant amounts of money to the country. In the same way Iraq, once under the rule of a dictator friendly to Washington, today openly and genuinely collaborates with Moscow, and especially Tehran, in defeating the Wahhabi proxies of Riyadh, an American ally.

The economic battle serves to complete the picture, with European allies forced to suffer huge economic losses as a result of sanctions against Russia and Iran. The tariffs on trade, especially to countries like Turkey, Japan and South Korea (although it seems that this proposal was intentionally sabotaged by a collaborator within the Trump administration), are further serving to push US allies to explore alternatives in terms of trust and cooperation.

China and Russia have seized the opportunities, offering through adroit diplomacy military, industrial and economic proposals that are drawing Washington’s historical allies into a new political reality where there is less space for Washington’s diktats.

The European establishment in some Western countries like Germany, France and the UK seems to have decided wait out Trump (this torture perhaps brought to an early end through a palace coup). But many others have instead intuited what is really happening in the West. Two factions are fighting each other, but still within the confines of a shared worldview that sees the United States as the only benevolent world power, and the likes of China and Russia as rivals that need to be contained. In such a difficult situation to manage, well-known leaders like Modi, Abe, Moon Jae-In and Erdogan are starting to take serious steps towards exploring possible alternatives to an exclusive alliance with the United States, that is, towards experiencing the benefits of a multipolar-world environment.

It is not just a question for these countries of breaking the strategic alliance with the United States. This aspect will probably not change for several years, especially in countries that have enormous military and economic ties with Washington. The path that South Korea, Turkey and Japan appear to be taking is deeply rooted in the concept of Multipolarity, which diversifies international relations, allowing countries to shop around to find the best opportunities. It is therefore not surprising to see the Japanese prime minister and the Russian president discussing at the economic forum in Vladivostok the possibility of signing a historic peace treaty. In the same way, if Turkey suffers a double political and economic attack from the US, it should not surprise us if they decide to purchase the S-400 defense system from Russia or start a full fledged campaign to de-dollarize. Such examples could be repeated, but the case of South Korea stands out. There is no need for Seoul to wait for Washington to mess things up diplomatically with Pyongyang before discussing the rebirth of relations between the two countries. Seoul is anxious to seize the opportunity for a renewed dialogue between leaders and solve the Korean impasse as much as possible. Finally, India, which has no intention of losing the opportunity for an economic partnership with Beijing and a military one with Moscow, launched the basis for a multi-party discussion between the Eurasian powers on the Afghan situation that has caused so much friction with Islamabad, especially with the new political phase that Imran Khan’s victory as Pakistan’s prime minister promises.

Washington faces all these scenarios with skepticism, annoyance and disgust, fearing losing important countries and its ability to determine the regional balance around the planet. What fascinates many analysts is the stubbornness and stupidity of US policy-makers. The more they try to prolong the US unipolar moment, the more incentive they give to other countries to jump on the multipolar bandwagon.

Even countries that probably have deep ties with the United States on an oligarchic level will have no alternative other than to modify and redesign their strategic alliances over the next 30 years. The United States continues along the path of diplomatic arrogance and strategic stupidity, mired in a civil war among its elites, with no end in sight.

Each scenario involving the US now has to be viewed with two factors in mind: not just the attempt to maintain an imperialist posture, but also an internal struggle involving its elites. This adds a further level of confusion for America’s allies and the world in general, who strain to decipher the next moves of a deep state totally out of control.

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