Is The Peak Of NYC’s Omicron Wave Just Around The Corner?

As we noted earlier, the US and worldwide tallies for the number of new COVID cases confirmed in a day are hitting fresh record highs as the year ends, giving some the impression that the global pandemic has barely been impacted by all the lockdowns, vaccines, boosters and other restrictions that have arisen over the past 2 years.

But as political leaders scramble to keep the media stocked with omicron-oriented FUD to report, it looks like we may have been correct a little over a week ago when we surmised that the peak of the outbreak in London may already be at hand.

In the US, there’s been a lot of focus on New York City, where COVID cases and hospitalizations are climbing, though still below their levels from last year’s winter wave.

Source: @ScottGottliebMD

Here’s where things stand in New York: Thursday was another record-breaking day, with 74,207 newly reported COVID cases in NY State, with a stunning 43,985 in NYC alone. The positivity rate continues to increase; it’s now 23.1%. Hospitalizations in NYC are also rising fast, now at 3,565, with 884 new admissions in past day alone.

Fortunately for New Yorkers, across the pond, Londoners are seeing what Dr. Scott Gottlieb believes might be a peak in the omicron wave (just in time since the NHS is already building field hospitals “just in case”).

If the past is any guide, as Gottlieb points out in his tweet, NYC’s peak in cases could arrive within 2 weeks now that London’s peak appears to have finally arrived.

While data is skewed by reduced holiday reporting, there’s increasing signs #Omicron wave in London may be peaking. The huge wave has occurred, so far, with only a small rise in hospital admissions requiring mechanical ventilation. New York City may be about 2 weeks behind London pic.twitter.com/WIqFkB16f9

— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) December 31, 2021

Source: @ScottGottliebMD

Going by hospitalizations that require mechanical ventilation and deaths, the peak in London is well below levels from last year.

Source: @ScottGottliebMD

Scientists have inferred that the UK is about two weeks ahead of New York when it comes to the seasonal COVID waves. So, if London is already past the week, how much longer will New Yorkers need to put up with behavior like this:

Protestors in NYC are arrested for entering Burger King without showing proof of vaccination pic.twitter.com/XmwMHBcJi6

— Libs of Tik Tok (@libsoftiktok) December 28, 2021

At any rate, the governor’s mansion has decided to extend mask and vaccine mandates through Feb. 1.

Put another way, maybe JPM’s Marko Kolanovic will finally be proven correct in that the omicron wave is bullish for risk because it means the end of the pandemic phase of COVID.