Month: March 2024

A quiet day with some uglier than expected housing data (new home sales miss) and manufacturing (Dallas Fed survey sunk) left bond yields and black gold higher, but bitcoin stole the headlines.

The bad data prompted a dovish drift in rate-cut expectations…

Source: Bloomberg

The dovish drift sent the dollar lower…

Source: Bloomberg

And pushed gold marginally higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin surged back above $70,000 on heavy ETF volume…

Source: Bloomberg

And we suspect the ebbing of last week’s net ETF outflows switched back into inflows today…

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum also ripped higher, back above $3600…

Source: Bloomberg

Bond yields were higher across the curve with the longer-end marginally underperforming. Selling was pretty much non-stop with a small bid into the US equity cash open and into the 2Y auction..

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices surged as investors monitored escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Russia’s war in Ukraine, while output cuts by Moscow to meet OPEC+ targets and a decline in the U.S. rig count raised concerns over a potential tightening of crude supply.

Source: Bloomberg

Small Caps outperformed on the day while The Dow lagged. The last hour saw selling pressure resume, erasing most of Small Caps’ gains…

Small Caps were rocketed higher at the cash open by a mega squeeze but ‘most shorted’ stocks faded to almost unchanged by the close…

Source: Bloomberg

The Energy sector outperformed while Industrials and Tech lagged.

Boeing bounced higher on news that Calhoun was leaving, but that exuberance faded fast…

Mag7 stocks opened ugly, but the algos were not going to stand for that and lifted the basket to unchanged before fading late on…

Source: Bloomberg

NVDA rallied (again) but failed to take out the early March highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, this is the most concentrated market ever…

Source: Bloomberg

…which is fine, right?

Authored by Amanda Meyer via Campus Reform,

A concert by an Israeli singer close to Harvard’s campus triggered an anti-Israel protest.

The concert, set up by Harvard Chabad, featured Israeli singer Ishay Ribo and was meant to “lift the spirits of Israeli and Jewish students suffering from Jew-hate on college campuses,” according to an Instagram post from the group.

The event was also meant to help with getting funds for Israel, wrote The Harvard Crimson.

Employees from The Sinclair, a “live-music venue” at Harvard Square that served as the host for the event, boycotted the show and protested outside the building.

One employee of The Sinclair said:

“None of us had wanted this to happen. It’s just a bummer that it didn’t matter to them. Now the gem that The Sinclair is has to be stained with something like this, and it f***ing sucks because it wasn’t in any of our hands.”

To keep the concert going as scheduled despite the boycott, non-Sinclair workers were reportedly brought to help, with Chabad Rabbi Hirschy Zarchi saying:

“We’re very grateful . . . to The Sinclair management and ownership for working with us to seek solutions, alternative solutions, to allow the event to go on.”

Harvard Chabad wrote in response to the protest:

“Jew-hate and anti-Israel voices are targeting Harvard Chabad and Israeli artist, Ishay Ribo. Ishay is a man who embodies profound love and peace. . . .  Love, peace, and music will prevail. Though there are no concert proceeds to speak of at this time, should there be, it will absolutely go to the healing and rebuilding of Israel, who is recovering from and fighting off an enemy seeking its destruction,” as seen from the group’s Instagram.

Harvard Chabad shared with Campus Reform, Harvard Chabad said both concert times were sold out, despite the protesters “spewing lies and conspiracies against the Jewish people and Isreal.”

”Harvard Chabad succeeded in creating an electrifying evening of unity, solidarity, and love with Israeli artist, Ishay Ribo,” said Harvard Chabad.

“The purpose of this musical and cultural experience was to lift the spirits of Israeli and Jewish students on campus who have been subjected to much hate and vitriol over the last several months. From the joy and outpouring of gratitude we received from our community, it was clear that love, solidarity, and music prevailed.”

”Any proceeds of the concert will indeed go to the healing and rebuilding of Israel, including to the hostages and their families, victims of rape, and the rebuilding of homes, hospitals, and kindergartens intentionally targeted by Hamas terrorists,” the group added.

Campus Reform has reported on several anti-Semitic controversies that affected Harvard in the past several months.

On March 7, Harvard’s Kennedy School hosted a professor who previously called Hamas’s Oct. 7 massacre “just a normal human struggle 4 #Freedom.”

On Feb. 20, several Harvard alumni sued the school, alleging that the Ivy League university “despicably failed to address, prevent, and rectify the prevalence of antisemitism, hate, and discrimination on its campus.”

On Feb. 12, the Kennedy School hosted a UN official who said at the event: “[S]aying that the motivation [for the Oct. 7 terrorist attack] was anti-Semitism is wrong and dangerous. . . . the argument is that this attack was launched as a way to break the occupation, against the apartheid”

Campus Reform reached out to The Sinclair for comment. This article will be updated accordingly.

Russia attacked the Ukrainian capital of Kiev on Monday morning, with US Ambassador Bridget Brink writing on X that she observed “Loud explosions in Kyiv” as “Again this morning Russia is attacking Ukraine with hypersonic missiles. Loud explosions in Kyiv. Over the last five days, Russia has launched hundreds of missiles and drones against a sovereign country.”

So far at least seven people have been reported inured, and a three story building in the central part of the city has been severely damaged.

A teenage girl was among the injured. Among the group of casualties, “Two of them are hospitalized. Others were treated by medics on the spot. Rescuers continue to clear the debris,” Mayor Vitali Klitschko wrote on Telegram.

“Next to the destroyed premises of the state educational institution is a dormitory where there were many people. Fortunately, there was no damage, and no one was injured.” Russia’s use of hypersonic missiles against the capital remains very rare, showing that Moscow intends to escalate in light of recent Ukrainian cross-border attacks.

A report in Kyiv Post strongly suggests this may have been an attempted so-called decapitation strike which aims to take out Ukraine’s military and intelligence top echelons: 

Kyiv Post’s sources within the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) have confirmed that two ballistic missiles were launched from Russian-occupied Crimea toward Kyiv on Monday and were aimed at the SBU offices.

Today, March 25, Ukraine is observing the Day of the Security Service of Ukraine. According to sources from the Kyiv Post, the missiles were aimed at the premises where high-ranking SBU officials are located.

🚨 BREAKING – Russian army launched several hypersonic missiles from occupied Crimea. They covered the distance of 580 km to Kyiv in 3 minutes at an estimated speed of 11,600 km/h (7,200mph).

Hence the air raid siren system did not turn on in time. Suspected to be Zircon cruise… pic.twitter.com/wlaWRSSRIK

— MonitorX (@MonitorX99800) March 25, 2024

The major strike also appeared a retaliation attack coming on the heels of Ukraine’s military declaring a successful attack on two Russian warships and a communications center in Crimea on Sunday. That attack had also involved Russian anti-air defenses downing at least ten inbound missiles over the port of Sevastopol as the Ukrainian operation unfolded.

Ukrainian air force commander Mykola Oleshchuk wrote on social media while hailing the attacks, “The sky and the sea are of the same color! I thank the pilots and navy for their successful combat work! Crimea is ours! To the victory together!”

Unconfirmed videos quickly circulated thereafter, which CNN described:

A video posted to a local Telegram channel shows a series of large explosions in the city, sending fireballs and thick black smoke into the air. Another fireball can be seen in the far distance.

Ukraine said the vessels hit were two amphibious landing ships, the Yamal and the Azov. The extent of the damage was not immediately clear.

More clear footage of Sevastopol strikes. pic.twitter.com/WNANxDZawh

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 23, 2024

CNN estimates that over the course of the more than two year long war, at least 20 naval vessels have been destroyed or damaged enough to become disabled, which marks one-third of the Black Sea fleet.

More large-scale Russian airstrikes deeper into Ukraine are expected given the ongoing Ukrainian strikes against Russian oil refineries, with the latest such attack happening Saturday but coming to light in international press via Reuters on Monday. “Rosneft’s Kuibyshev oil refinery in Samara, Russia halted CDU-5, one of its two primary refining units, Reuters reports, citing two people familiar with the matter,” Bloomberg reports of this latest.

Samara lies deep inside Russian territory, over 500 miles from the Ukraine border, making this another very long-range strike by Ukraine…

Regional Governor Dmitry Azarov described that a large a fire broke due to direct impact by Ukrainian drone attack over the weekend, per statements in Interfax, damaging the primary oil refining unit.

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Awakening from the dream of painless financial / political solutions, we find the status quo is not the solution, it is the source of our decay.

Our situation as a society is akin to awakening from a dream of loved ones to the realization that they passed away long ago. Our economy and politics are broken, yet we continue dreaming that they are functional.

Let’s start with politics. American politics now bears an eerie resemblance to pre-collapse Soviet politics: a geriatric, sclerotic, stuck-in-the-past leadership, five-year plans (four year plans in the U.S. with one goal–get re-elected) that do nothing to change the trajectory of social decay, and a populace increasingly opting out of political engagement as people realize the pointlessness of the entire charade: the commoners are powerless and the elites are incompetent and disconnected from reality.

Recall Smith’s Neofeudalism Principle #1: If the citizenry cannot replace a kleptocratic authoritarian government and/or limit the power of the financial Aristocracy at the ballot box, the nation is a democracy in name only.

Take a look at the charts below and tell me how transferring power from one party to the other changed the trajectory of social decay, kleptocracy, authoritarianism or the predations of the financial Aristocracy. You can’t, as “business as usual” politics is incapable of changing the trajectory of inequality, debt and social decay.

The two-party “Business as usual” politics offers us a false choice, as neither party has the means to identify or address the fundamental sources of our decline as a society. What we’re offered is histrionic claims that one policy or another will fix the symptoms of decay rather than the sources of decay.

Historian Christopher Lasch (who died in 1994) saw that the either-or mindset of left-right, Progressive-Conservative was already a dead-end in 1990 when he wrote The True and Only Heaven: “We need to ask whether the left and right have not come to share so many of the underlying convictions, including a belief in the desirability and inevitability of technical and economic development, that the conflict between them, shrill and acrimonious as it is, no longer speaks to the central issues of American politics.” (page 23)

Look at the charts below and identify the great sea changes in trajectory caused by changing the party in power. There are none. The Imperial Project continues apace regardless of what party claims power. This is the result of a broken political system that offers up a false choice while society careens toward a precipice.

Federal debt: where’s the big reversal of trajectory caused by switching parties?

Total public and private debt: where’s the big reversal of trajectory caused by switching parties?

Wealth of the top .01%: where’s the big reversal of trajectory caused by switching parties? The spot of bother in 2008-2009 that briefly interrupted the trend of rising concentration of wealth in the top few was the result of a catastrophically unstable, corrupt, exploitive financial system almost collapsing, not of political change.

As for the economy, where do we begin? With the dependence on skyrocketing debt to duct-tape the appearance of normalcy and the the all-important veneer of “optimism”?

How about the rise to dominance of extreme speculation, as the only means left to get ahead in an economy ruled by monopolies, cartels and their regulatory partners?

What about the decay of ethics to the lowest level: the normalizing of “pay-to-play” and “everyone has a price”?

How about the reality that we’re all held hostage to monopolistic technological / corporate platforms that relentlessly increase profits by crapifying goods and immiserating services?

How about the reliance on the monetization and commodification of addiction as a reliable profit center? As Lasch so presciently observed: “The model of ownership, in a society built round mass consumption, is addiction.”

As for social decay, perhaps we can start with the reduction of all the bonds of an authentic social order to a series of “market transactions”–the sale of attention and engagement, the purchase of distractions, the endless scrolling and clicking, the attendance at a protest that goes nowhere because it can’t possibly lead to any real change–the scope and diversity of transactions generates the illusion of being connected as we drift into disconnected spheres of loneliness and anxiety as we sense, despite all the phony optimism and distraction, that our society is coming apart at the seams, and we’re powerless to so anything but opt out of the madness.

Awakening from the dream of painless financial / political solutions, we find the status quo is not the solution, it is the source of our decay. The status quo generates crises by its very nature and structure, and then claims that papering over the symptoms will magically resolve the sources of crisis and decay. But symptoms are not causes, and so this illusion has a very limited shelf-life.

New podcast: Self Reliance & The Importance of Choice (24 min), Part 2 in a three-part exploration of self-reliance.

*  *  *

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Tonight at 7pm ET – on the day that NY Attorney General Lettita James said she was prepared to begin seizing buildings from Donald Trump unless he paid over a hundred million dollars because “Justice” – ZeroHedge will host our latest live debate on the former President’s past and present, and whether America would benefit from his return in 2024.

In the “anti-Trump” corner, former George Bush ethics lawyer and vehement never-Trumper Richard Painter will join independent journalist Michael Tracey, an ardent critic of Trump and Biden alike.

In the “pro-Trump” corner, veteran political operative Roger Stone joins former Trump foreign policy advisor George Papadopoulos.

The discussion will be moderated by David “Viva Frei” Freiheit and sponsored by Goldco.

Among the topics to be discussed, we will cover:

• Did Trump “drain the swamp”? Will he next time?
• Foreign policy: China-Taiwan, Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Palestine
• COVID/Vaccine policy
• Fiscal spending
• Can he win or is the system rigged?

We’ll cover all these topics and more, so tune in live on ZeroHedge, X, or Rumble at 7pm eastern.

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

The National Guard is only supposed to be deployed in emergency situations.  But these days the National Guard is being used for all sorts of things.  For example, hundreds of National Guard soldiers are being used to check the bags of those riding the subway system in New York City.  That sets a very alarming precedent, and I don’t understand why more people aren’t upset about this.  And now we have learned that National Guard troops will be deployed during the Great American Eclipse on April 8th.  What in the world do they expect to happen during this eclipse?

Without a doubt, it will certainly be a historic event.

As I have discussed previously, it is being projected that it will be the most viewed astronomical event in the entire history of our country.

And virtually everyone in North America will be able to view at least a partial eclipse…

Almost everyone on the continent will see at least a bit of the eclipse. The further away you are from the path, the less of the eclipse you’ll see.

Even in places like Seattle and Portland, Oregon, which are far from the path, about one-third of the sun will be hidden.

On April 8th, millions of Americans will be traveling to locations where they will be in the path of the total solar eclipse.  Oklahoma is being touted as one of the best states for that, and it is being reported that the Oklahoma National Guard “will provide first responders as well as units with hazmat response capabilities”…

Oklahoma’s National Guard is set to be deployed for the upcoming total solar eclipse, when as many as 100,000 people are expected to visit one county.

In a statement on Tuesday, the guard said it would assist emergency management to cope with “an unprecedented number of tourists” on April 8 in McCurtain County, in the southeast of the state.

The guard will provide first responders as well as units with hazmat response capabilities in case of an incident like an industrial fire.

I can understand that they feel the need to be prepared.

But bringing in the National Guard is overkill, don’t you think?

Residents of Oklahoma are being urged to “stock up on gas and groceries” prior to the eclipse, and they are also being instructed to have “multiple forms of communication besides cellular”…

To prepare for the eclipse, the state laid out some tips to plan ahead.

Oklahomans should schedule errands and appointments a few days in advance before the eclipse as well as stock up on gas and groceries. The state also recommends having multiple forms of communication besides cellular, being careful on the road and staying updated on weather conditions.

Seriously?

They want people to do all this for an eclipse that is only going to last for a few minutes?

Actually, Oklahoma is not the only state that is issuing such warnings.  According to a Newsweek article entitled “Map Shows Warnings for People to Stock Up on Food Ahead of Solar Eclipse”, at least four states have now warned their citizens to stock up on food…

At least four states within the path of totality have urged residents to stock up on groceries before the eclipse. Some officials have already issued disaster declarations ahead of the event, and some schools have decided to close, citing student safety.

Texas officials have issued a slew of warnings, including that people living within the path of totality should stock up on groceries and gas and run any errands—such as filling prescriptions—in the days before the eclipse. One official also urged pet owners to stock up on supplies for their animals.

I realize that the areas that are in the direct path of the total eclipse are anticipating large numbers of visitors, but it feels like authorities are really going overboard.

Just look at what officials in Hays County, Texas are telling their residents to do…

• Parking issues – lack of parking, fees for parking, having to park and walk to your destination (Please park only in designated areas and not on private property or in areas that cause safety issues)

• Traffic delays and road closures

• Longer wait times for restaurants (consider cooking at “home” instead or bring a small cooler with ready-to-eat food)

• More congestion (pedestrian and vehicles)

• Delayed emergency/911 response

• Cell service interruptions/lack of service

• Higher than normal stress levels and/or heated tempers

• Credit card machines not working (bring cash)

Why would credit card machines not work?

And why would phone service be interrupted?

I don’t understand.

In Arkansas, they actually held a “live training exercise” that simulated emergencies that might happen during the eclipse…

With less than a month remaining before the Great American Solar Eclipse, the Arkansas Division of Emergency Management (ADEM) took a significant step by conducting a live training exercise. This exercise was designed to test ADEM’s response to issues that may arise as visitors flock to Arkansas to witness the event. ADEM responders and other state agencies looked at possible scenarios, such as severe weather, traffic, medical emergencies, and communication challenges.

Taking part in the exercise were county emergency managers and representatives of the National Weather Service, Arkansas National Guard, Corps of Engineers, Arkansas Hospital Association, Arkansas Wireless Information Network, and Arkansas Departments of Health, Transportation, Energy and Environment and Human Services.

Personally, I am not expecting a major disaster or emergency on the day of the eclipse.

But you never know, I could be wrong.

And it is certainly inevitable that there will be a lot more “surprises” as this year rolls along.

In fact, during his recent interview with Tucker Carlson, former U.S. Representative Ron Paul specifically warned about the potential for a black swan event…

Ron Paul, recognized for his consistent principles and foresight into economic and foreign policy, used the platform to express his concerns about unexpected, significant events that could catch the world by surprise.

“I think we’re reaching this point where some sudden thing is going to happen. I believe in that theory of the black swan. Yes, it’s going to pop up, and it’s not going to be controllable,” Paul said.

I don’t think that there will be a black swan event on April 8th.

But this eclipse will be a very big deal.

The giant “X” over America that the Great American Eclipse of 2017 started will be completed by the Great American Eclipse of 2024.

And as the Great American Eclipse of 2024 moves across our nation, the sun, the moon and the other seven planets in our solar system will all be lined up in the sky.

Our entire solar system is literally screaming that this day is important, and you would think that more people would be talking about the giant “X” that is about to be completed directly over the New Madrid fault zone.

Sadly, most of the population will quickly forget about this eclipse once it has passed, and that is extremely unfortunate.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.

With bitcoin ETFs relentlessly buying the digital currency/commodity/devaluation hedge for the past two months (despite the relentless liquidations taking place at the fee outlier GBTC)…

… and the infamous “Mr. 100″ buying up all the bitcoin mined in the last 2 days…

🧮 $120m in 2 days👇 pic.twitter.com/tZl4ZWFot0

— HODL15Capital 🇺🇸 (@HODL15Capital) March 23, 2024

… some were asking: who is selling?

The answer, as those who follow us know very well, was the futures market where as we first discussed last night, the latest week saw the largest Bitcoin CME non-commercial futures shorting/selling since last October.

Where is the selling coming from? Biggest weekly dump in bitcoin futures since October pic.twitter.com/wIxiFpQtpG

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 24, 2024

But there was more: as we revealed last night to our pro subscribers in great detail late on Sunday, Goldman’s Futures desk observed record after record in bitcoin futures: indeed, as prices hit a record high above $73k, total open interest did as well this week above 33k contracts outstanding or nearly $12bn, as “the total number of organizations holding the contract (in size above the CFTC reportable-trader level) is at a near-record also.”

Goldman also observed that in the most recent week – 5-12 March – institutions, a category which is likely to include ETF product usage of Bitcoin futures, were more than 3x std-dev buyers while hedge funds or Leveraged investors, and those who panic cover the moment there is even a modest sustained move higher to avoid margin calls, were offsetting, more than 3x std-dev net sellers.

Finally, Goldman noted that institutional net long and hedge fund net short lengths are at record levels, and the concentration of longs – the percentage of total open interest held by the top 4 net long traders at nearly 60% – is well above average levels. Alongside this, the futures implied funding has also remained elevated, at commonly above 10% annualized since Q4 last year during Bitcoin’s price runup – it started 23Q4 below $30k – and sometimes above 15%.

Putting it all together, late on Sunday predicted that “another epic squeeze was coming”…

Goldman: “The institutional Bitcoin net long and hedge fund Bitcoin net short lengths are at record levels”

another epic squeeze coming pic.twitter.com/l9G2tGitp0

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 24, 2024

Just a few hours later, an “epic squeeze” in the futures market, where hedge fund shorts confirmed just how much they suck at HODLing their shots following a sharp move higher, is precisely what we got.

More in the full Goldman note available to pro subs in the usual place.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The state of Michigan is offering $500 per month to residents who agree to house illegal immigrants in their homes.

The so called ‘Newcomer Rental Subsidy‘ would provide the payment for up to a year for any homeowner willing to take part, equating to a total of $6000.

The state those says those eligible for the program include refugees, asylees, special immigration visa holders, victims of human trafficking, Cuban and Haitian entrants, Afghan nationals, and Ukrainian humanitarian parolees.

The program also states that illegals who have been processed as part of the ‘Family Reunification Parole Process’ from El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Colombia, individuals with a pending asylum application, and other immigrant individuals on a case-by-case basis are also eligible.

Basically anyone who crosses the border then.

Michigan is offering $500 a month to house “newcomers.”

They’re not newcomers.

They’re criminal illegal aliens.

Democrats turned a few counties in Michigan into “Sanctuary Cities” and elected a Sanctuary City advocate as their Governor.

Michigan previously asked residents to… pic.twitter.com/i5U972dS2U

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) March 25, 2024

The program is being funded to the tune of $4 million from the Michigan Housing and Community Development Fund.

In other words, paid for by taxpayers.

Michigan’s State Housing Development Authority has claimed that the program is designed to help immigrants “build a new life here.”

!!

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 23, 2024

Executive director Amy Hovey has stated that “This program is truly a win-win, as it addresses the most pressing barrier to refugee resettlement by meeting housing needs while setting up families for success with increased employment and opportunity.”

Some wondered whether housing an illegal would make you an accomplice to criminal activity.

Would housing illegals make you aiding and abetting illegal activities?🤔

— General™️ (@TheGeneral_0) March 25, 2024

As we previously highlighted, this kind of thing is happening in several cities nationwide.

And if people don’t invite the illegal immigrants in to their homes, they risk literal invasions via progressive squatting laws.

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Moments ago, the Treasury concluded the first of this week’s front-loaded auctions when it sold $66BN of 2-year notes, the first coupon auction after last week’s dovish Powell presser. The auction was immediately notable for one reason: upsized by $3BN from last month, at $66BN this was the largest 2Y auction on record, but it certainly won’t be the biggest. With US debt issuance now exponential, virtually every auction from here until the end of the USD as a reserve currency will be “record big.”

The auction stopped at a high yield of 4.595%, down ~10bps from last month’s 4.691%, and tailed the 4.590% When Issued by 0.5bps, the second tailing auction in a row.

The bid to cover was solid, rising from 2.492 to 2.619 and above the six-auction average of 2.61.

The internals were also solid with Indirects awarded 65.8%, the most since June 2023 (and clearly above the recent average). And with Directs taking down 20.8%, the most since Nov 23, Dealers were left holding 13.4%, or the lowest since last June.

Overall, this was an impressive auction with solid foreign demand, with the only modest negative the slight tail despite the concession as yields ripped higher into the auction deadline.

A number of structural themes have been driving US asset markets higher, including artificial intelligence, GLP-1, cloud, and biotech, as well as the prospect of a pivot in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hiking cycle if inflation does not reignite. Some Wall Street strategists, like BofA’s Savita Subramanian, have hiked their year-end S&P price targets. However, her colleague, Michael Hartnett, has been countering the bull narrative that “it’s only a small bubble, plus this time is different” in various notes (read: here, here, here, and here). 

Given that some Wall Street strategists are split on the question, “1995 or 1999?” – one sell-side indicator has piqued our attention and could be an ominous sign that insiders see trouble ahead in the bull market. 

According to Verity LLC, which tracks insider trades, the ratio of corporate insider selling to insider buying has surged to the highest level since the first quarter of 2021. 

Peter Thiel, Jeff Bezos, and Mark Zuckerberg are some of the top corporate insiders dumping shares this quarter. They have sold hundreds of millions of dollars in shares as the AI bubble and Fed pivot narratives propelled the Nasdaq to new record highs. 

The surge in insider selling is an ominous sign the bull market could be nearing a resistance level, Charles Elson, a legal veteran and chair of corporate governance at the University of Delaware, told the Financial Times. 

“If they think that we’re at the top and so they’re getting out, that’s a rather stark signal to everyone else,” Elson said. 

Ben Silverman, Verity’s vice president of research, warned: 

“We do view [corporate insider share sales] as a negative data point that investors should be aware of.” 

Silverman noted that the selling appears to be concentrated in the technology sector specifically, “We are also seeing a number of the big [company] names in this space with insider selling that is not typical.” 

“Clearly there’s an appetite for liquidity generation right now,” he said, adding, “Some of that is some pent-up demand following relatively quiet insider selling in 2022 and 2023, and certainly one impetus is [stock] market performance.” 

FT listed the most recent selling transactions of Thiel, Bezos, and Zuckerberg: 

• Many of the biggest sales this quarter have come from technology executives. Thiel, co-founder of data analytics group Palantir, sold $175mn this month, according to regulatory disclosures, his biggest sale since offloading $504.8mn of the company’s stock in February 2021.
• Amazon founder Bezos sold 50mn shares worth $8.5bn in the ecommerce group in February. Andy Jassy, Amazon’s chief executive, sold $21.1mn of stock this year, compared to $23.6mn in 2023 and 2022 combined.
• Zuckerberg, Meta’s chief executive, has sold millions of dollars of the company’s shares for years. But he has increased selling this year as its stock hit all-time highs. In early February, he sold 291,000 shares for $135mn, his first sale of that size since November 2021. He still has 13.5 per cent of the company’s outstanding shares, which makes him its largest shareholder.

Some corporate insiders may recognize what BofA’s Hartnett has seen in equity markets: bubbly times. Even Jamie Dimon, the world’s most powerful banker, warned earlier this month: “There’s a little bit of a bubble in equity markets right now.” 

Nothing to see here (courtesy of Goldman): 

Higher markets from here would only suggest more insiders will be dumping.