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LANDMARK competed Nov. 19 in North Atlanta in a meet that included Grady, Maynard T. Jackson Booker T. Washington high schools. Both the boys’ and girls’ teams placed third overall, and Ty Janyaem was second in the 100 breaststroke.
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BOYS BASKETBALL
via The Citizen http://www.thecitizen.com/articles/11-26-2013/high-school-sports-roundup-nov-27-2013
Having exposed the “biggest scam in history” is Part 4 (following Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3), Mike Maloney’s fifth episode serves as an ideal primer for those waking up to the monetary matrix around them, as it clearly shows the history of true money and why it so important to our freedom. The quality of a society is directly proportional to the quality of its money. Debase a currency for long enough, and you end up with dangerous deficits, debt driven disasters, and eventually…delusional dictators. History proves this to be true.
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via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/XII_MohrkkE/story01.htm Tyler Durden
“The reality is,”Kevin Warsh exclaims, “QE policy favors those with big balance sheets, those with risk appetites, and access to free money,” while real people “are still looking around and saying what is fed policy doing for me.” The problem, he explains, is a disconnect between what markets are discounting about the future and the Fed’s credibility with regard their apparently divergent forecasts for unemployment, growth, and interest rates. In a little under 90 seconds, Warsh explains the dilemma and sums up the Fed perfectly, “they’re just talking, rather than acting.”
“The challenge for [The Fed] in December is to convince the markets that both their economic forecasts are right – that is the economy will be growing at 3.5% in 2016, the unemployment rate will be in the fives – and yet, interest rates still at zero.
My view is one of those has to give.
If the economy is roaring as much as they say, markets will not believe that the Federal Reserve will keep the Fed Funds rate at zero in that environment. The alternative is the economy is stuck at around 2% growth in which case it is possible that rates and yields stay quite low.”
90 Quick seconds of uncomfortable enlightenment…
His later comments did not entirely suggest confidence in the short-term future…
“Financial markets tend to test new chairmen. They did it to Paul Volcker. They did it to Alan Greenspan,” Warsh said. “They challenged Ben Bernanke and his new team eight years ago.”
“I’ve got every bit of confidence that [Yellen] is going to realize that being chairman is frankly a very different set of responsibilities … where most of us get to sort of chatter from the cheap seats. She’s got to make the tough decisions.”
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via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/ahPbpPwkrJY/story01.htm Tyler Durden
“The reality is,”Kevin Warsh exclaims, “QE policy favors those with big balance sheets, those with risk appetites, and access to free money,” while real people “are still looking around and saying what is fed policy doing for me.” The problem, he explains, is a disconnect between what markets are discounting about the future and the Fed’s credibility with regard their apparently divergent forecasts for unemployment, growth, and interest rates. In a little under 90 seconds, Warsh explains the dilemma and sums up the Fed perfectly, “they’re just talking, rather than acting.”
“The challenge for [The Fed] in December is to convince the markets that both their economic forecasts are right – that is the economy will be growing at 3.5% in 2016, the unemployment rate will be in the fives – and yet, interest rates still at zero.
My view is one of those has to give.
If the economy is roaring as much as they say, markets will not believe that the Federal Reserve will keep the Fed Funds rate at zero in that environment. The alternative is the economy is stuck at around 2% growth in which case it is possible that rates and yields stay quite low.”
90 Quick seconds of uncomfortable enlightenment…
His later comments did not entirely suggest confidence in the short-term future…
“Financial markets tend to test new chairmen. They did it to Paul Volcker. They did it to Alan Greenspan,” Warsh said. “They challenged Ben Bernanke and his new team eight years ago.”
“I’ve got every bit of confidence that [Yellen] is going to realize that being chairman is frankly a very different set of responsibilities … where most of us get to sort of chatter from the cheap seats. She’s got to make the tough decisions.”
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via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/ahPbpPwkrJY/story01.htm Tyler Durden
Submitted by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management,
During my morning reading, I ran across an article by Howard Gold entitled “Why Diversification Isn’t Working?” by Howard Gold wherein he discusses that investors are faced with having to choose between many bad choices. He stated:
“That’s the problem many investors face now. Risky assets, like stocks, commodities, and real estate are moving in lockstep. Only long-dated bonds are swimming against the tide, and nobody wants them because of fears the Federal Reserve will eventually stop its massive bond buying and raise interest rates.
So, the choice appears to be throwing even more money into stocks, which are nearly five years into a bull market, or buying bonds, which we know will go down in price. Or keeping more in cash (with its negative real return) or stuffing money in the mattress. Or, God forbid, buying leveraged inverse ETFs as a ‘hedge.’ (emphasis added)”
The analysis by Howard Gold has become a mainstream staple within the financial markets that when the Federal Reserve “tapers,” or eventually ceases, its current bond buying program that interest rates will begin to rise. However, there are three primary issues which should be considered that fail to support this widely held belief.
Interest Rates Will Rise
The first misconception is that when the Fed tapers its ongoing liquidity program; interest rates will begin to rise. However, there is no anecdotal evidence that would be the case as shown in the chart below.
In fact, the recent rise in interest rates should have been anticipated as that has been the case during both previous programs. It was not until the programs began to “taper,” and eventually end, that rates fell as money flowed out of risk assets in search of safety in the bond bond market. This fall in rates also corresponded to economic weakness and expectations of an increase in deflationary pressures.
When the Fed once again begins to remove its accommodative support from the financial markets it will likely lead to a further decline in interest rates as “safety” is once again sought over “risk.”
The Economy Will Be Recovering Which Will Push Rates Higher
The second misconception is that the Fed will begin to taper their current bond buying program as the economy strengthens enough to warrant the removal of those accommodative policies. However, as I discussed in “30% Up Years” the economy is already in the 7th longest expansion since 1879 as shown in the chart below.
The problem for the Federal Reserve has been that each time they have previously withdrawn financial accommodation the economy has flagged pushing interest rates lower.
The question that investors should be asking themselves is how much longer will the current economic expansion last given the lack of underlying drivers that have historically contributed to strong periods of economic growth. The Federal Reserve’s programs have been effective in pulling forward future consumption to support the current economy. However, the extraction of those programs will likely reveal a the future “void” that has been created.
The Liquidity Trap
The last reason that interest rates are unlikely to rise is the realization that the Federal Reserve has become unwittingly caught within a liquidity trap. I discussed this is detail previously in “What Is A Liquidity Trap” wherein I stated:
“For the Federal Reserve they are now caught in the same ‘liquidity trap’ that has been the history of Japan for the last three decades. With an aging demographic, which will continue to strain the financial system, increasing levels of indebtedness and poor fiscal policy to combat the issues restraining economic growth it is unlikely that continued monetary interventions will do anything other than simply foster the next boom/bust cycle in financial assets. The chart below shows the 1-year Japanese Government Bond yield as compared to their quarterly economic growth rates. Low interest rates have failed to spur sustainable economic activity over the last 20 years.”
The problem that the Fed has already witnessed, and something I have discussed several times in the past, is that even small incremental increases in interest rates has an immediate negative effect on interest rate sensitive economic activities like business lending and real estate.
The Federal Reserve has gotten itself trapped into creating an asset bubble in the equity markets because any reversal of policy leads to severely negative economic consequences. With the current economic recovery cycle already very extended in historical terms, along with the financial markets, it is unlikely that we have just begun a growth cycle that will allow the Federal Reserve to extract its support. The reality is quite the opposite, and the next asset rotation will not be from bonds to stocks; but just the opposite.
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via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/GPSbAhAVL8Y/story01.htm Tyler Durden
Submitted by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management,
During my morning reading, I ran across an article by Howard Gold entitled “Why Diversification Isn’t Working?” by Howard Gold wherein he discusses that investors are faced with having to choose between many bad choices. He stated:
“That’s the problem many investors face now. Risky assets, like stocks, commodities, and real estate are moving in lockstep. Only long-dated bonds are swimming against the tide, and nobody wants them because of fears the Federal Reserve will eventually stop its massive bond buying and raise interest rates.
So, the choice appears to be throwing even more money into stocks, which are nearly five years into a bull market, or buying bonds, which we know will go down in price. Or keeping more in cash (with its negative real return) or stuffing money in the mattress. Or, God forbid, buying leveraged inverse ETFs as a ‘hedge.’ (emphasis added)”
The analysis by Howard Gold has become a mainstream staple within the financial markets that when the Federal Reserve “tapers,” or eventually ceases, its current bond buying program that interest rates will begin to rise. However, there are three primary issues which should be considered that fail to support this widely held belief.
Interest Rates Will Rise
The first misconception is that when the Fed tapers its ongoing liquidity program; interest rates will begin to rise. However, there is no anecdotal evidence that would be the case as shown in the chart below.
In fact, the recent rise in interest rates should have been anticipated as that has been the case during both previous programs. It was not until the programs began to “taper,” and eventually end, that rates fell as money flowed out of risk assets in search of safety in the bond bond market. This fall in rates also corresponded to economic weakness and expectations of an increase in deflationary pressures.
When the Fed once again begins to remove its accommodative support from the financial markets it will likely lead to a further decline in interest rates as “safety” is once again sought over “risk.”
The Economy Will Be Recovering Which Will Push Rates Higher
The second misconception is that the Fed will begin to taper their current bond buying program as the economy strengthens enough to warrant the removal of those accommodative policies. However, as I discussed in “30% Up Years” the economy is already in the 7th longest expansion since 1879 as shown in the chart below.
The problem for the Federal Reserve has been that each time they have previously withdrawn financial accommodation the economy has flagged pushing interest rates lower.
The question that investors should be asking themselves is how much longer will the current economic expansion last given the lack of underlying drivers that have historically contributed to strong periods of economic growth. The Federal Reserve’s programs have been effective in pulling forward future consumption to support the current economy. However, the extraction of those programs will likely reveal a the future “void” that has been created.
The Liquidity Trap
The last reason that interest rates are unlikely to rise is the realization that the Federal Reserve has become unwittingly caught within a liquidity trap. I discussed this is detail previously in “What Is A Liquidity Trap” wherein I stated:
“For the Federal Reserve they are now caught in the same ‘liquidity trap’ that has been the history of Japan for the last three decades. With an aging demographic, which will continue to strain the financial system, increasing levels of indebtedness and poor fiscal policy to combat the issues restraining economic growth it is unlikely that continued monetary interventions will do anything other than simply foster the next boom/bust cycle in financial assets. The chart below shows the 1-year Japanese Government Bond yield as compared to their quarterly economic growth rates. Low interest rates have failed to spur sustainable economic activity over the last 20 years.”
The problem that the Fed has already witnessed, and something I have discussed several times in the past, is that even small incremental increases in interest rates has an immediate negative effect on interest rate sensitive economic activities like business lending and real estate.
The Federal Reserve has gotten itself trapped into creating an asset bubble in the equity markets because any reversal of policy leads to severely negative economic consequences. With the current economic recovery cycle already very extended in historical terms, along with the financial markets, it is unlikely that we have just begun a growth cycle that will allow the Federal Reserve to extract its support. The reality is quite the opposite, and the next asset rotation will not be from bonds to stocks; but just the opposite.
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via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/GPSbAhAVL8Y/story01.htm Tyler Durden
The
latest version of Denver’s rules for marijuana consumption
eliminates the widely derided “smell
test,” which would have made pot smoking illegal when other
people can smell it, even if you do it on your own property. It
also omits a ban on mere possession in parks, which Councilwoman
Susan Shepherd
worried would deter marijuana consumers from walking and
biking. And although it still covers marijuana consumption “in any
outdoor location” where it is “clearly observable from a public
place,” it exempts consumption on “private residential property” by
owners, tenants, or guests. But The Denver
Post reports that
at least six out of 13 city council members still want to ban
marijuana consumption in front yards, and there may yet be a
seventh vote:
Charlie Brown, a swing vote, said he is conflicted. He has been
a staunch property-rights proponent but understands the problem
[Councilwoman Jeanne] Robb is trying to resolve.“I don’t want to see a bunch of pot parties on front yards,” he
said. “The city’s image is at stake. I’m torn between [that concern
and] my stance that a man’s front yard is his castle.”
Mason Tvert, who co-managed the campaign for marijuana
legalization in Colorado,
tells Westword that Robb’s proposed amendment is
approved, he could end up with no place to legally smoke pot:
They are still trying to prohibit the use of marijuana by adults
on private property. It’s currently legal for adults to consume
alcohol or smoke cigarettes on their porches or balconies, so we
fail to understand why it should be illegal to use a far less
harmful substance there….
I don’t have a private backyard; the backyard is a common area.
And if my building were to decide people can’t use marijuana inside
their units, for whatever reason, I wouldn’t have anywhere I could
legally use marijuana as an adult.
Aspen recently
approved marijuana regulations that do not restrict consumption
on private property. According to The Aspen Times, that
means “it is OK for people to smoke in the comfort of their
own yards, fenced or not, as well as their balconies, rooftops and
patios.” How come? “At this point,” the
Times says, “the city doesn’t believe the pot
users, whether locals or visitors, will get out of hand.”
from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/11/26/pot-smokers-to-denver-city-council-stay
via IFTTT
"I just don't see evidence that people believe we are launching into a great new era" of home price appreciation,"that's what we had in the early 2000s." Simply put, he chides Faber and Cramer, "people are not so excited about the future," in spite of record high stock prices (and surging home prices) as it seems the Fed's plan was foiled again. In a fascinating to-and-fro, they note "we don't want to go back to 2005," even though "it would lift the economy" since "we know how that story ends." The hedge funds and 'investors' proclaim themselves long-term investors, but Shiller notes "they are not, what they have learned there is short-run momentum in the housing market," and will bail at the first sign of that ebbing, "it's different now, we can't trust momentum."
Some uncomfortable truths from the Nobel winner…
"Real homebuyers are not as excited about the housing market as the price increases seem to suggest…"
"It's more of an 'unusual' demand from investors that's driving the market now…"
"…the market is driven more by psychology than affordability"
The rental market demand 'excuse' for growth and long-term gains is obsequious as Shiller asks rhetorically, "how can these guys not notice how fast prices have been going up and historically momentum is a much better play in housing than it has been in the stock market." He adds, "I'm pretty sure [an exit] is on their minds," but as he warns, "they are not going to say this, of course."
"It looks like we are a little bubbly in the stock market,… if it keeps going up like this, the expected retrun on the stock market will fall below the TIPS yield."
Former Fed official Kevin Warsh didn't help:
"Housing and housing assets are going to give you one signal," Warsh said in a "Squawk Box" interview. "[But] there is a broader cross section of data from the consumer, from the business, from trade and from exports. So this preoccupation with housing strikes me as really quite dangerous."
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via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/mh_11-xQN9o/story01.htm Tyler Durden
"I just don't see evidence that people believe we are launching into a great new era" of home price appreciation,"that's what we had in the early 2000s." Simply put, he chides Faber and Cramer, "people are not so excited about the future," in spite of record high stock prices (and surging home prices) as it seems the Fed's plan was foiled again. In a fascinating to-and-fro, they note "we don't want to go back to 2005," even though "it would lift the economy" since "we know how that story ends." The hedge funds and 'investors' proclaim themselves long-term investors, but Shiller notes "they are not, what they have learned there is short-run momentum in the housing market," and will bail at the first sign of that ebbing, "it's different now, we can't trust momentum."
Some uncomfortable truths from the Nobel winner…
"Real homebuyers are not as excited about the housing market as the price increases seem to suggest…"
"It's more of an 'unusual' demand from investors that's driving the market now…"
"…the market is driven more by psychology than affordability"
The rental market demand 'excuse' for growth and long-term gains is obsequious as Shiller asks rhetorically, "how can these guys not notice how fast prices have been going up and historically momentum is a much better play in housing than it has been in the stock market." He adds, "I'm pretty sure [an exit] is on their minds," but as he warns, "they are not going to say this, of course."
"It looks like we are a little bubbly in the stock market,… if it keeps going up like this, the expected retrun on the stock market will fall below the TIPS yield."
Former Fed official Kevin Warsh didn't help:
"Housing and housing assets are going to give you one signal," Warsh said in a "Squawk Box" interview. "[But] there is a broader cross section of data from the consumer, from the business, from trade and from exports. So this preoccupation with housing strikes me as really quite dangerous."
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via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/mh_11-xQN9o/story01.htm Tyler Durden
Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,
The front door is covered with official pronouncements of "the China Dream" and blustery demands of hegemony, but the back door is choked with members of the financial/political Elite fleeing China and taking their wealth with them.
The first thing to understand about China is there is always a front door and a back door to everything. The front door is what's presented to the outside world; the back door is for everything that doesn't fit the PR image created by the front door.
The front door presents positive "face," the back door is for everything that would "lose face," so it's hidden and never discussed, except in private, and only with trusted family or friends.
A friend who once worked for the Chinese government recently returned home after several years absence, and found that all her bosses had moved to the West: Australia, Canada, etc. These were typical officials: their base salary was low but they managed to buy multiple homes, support mistresses, have upscale autos, and so on.
In a word, ill-gotten wealth. There are tens of thousands of these beneficiaries of China's boom in credit and corruption, and they have all either fled (with their ill-gotten wealth) to the West or "safe-haven" East (Singapore, for example). Those who haven't fled yet have passports to a safe haven, and cash and homes overseas awaiting their arrival.
It is common knowledge that the offspring of top officials all have passports and homes awaiting them in the West.
That every one of your political bosses has left China is an astounding revelation into the mindset of those who have benefited most from China's boom: they obviously fear that some upheaval could strip away their ill-gotten wealth, otherwise, why not simply move to some wealthy enclave in China?
The front door is covered with official pronouncements of the China Dream and blustery demands of hegemony, but the back door is choked with members of the financial/political Elite fleeing China and taking their wealth with them. All of this is well-known, yet it is spoken of in hushed tones, lest China lose face from this wholesale exodus of those who stripmined the nation with credit and corruption.
If the Elites had any faith in China's future, and in the security of their wealth, why would they be fleeing China in perhaps the greatest peacetime exodus of wealth the world has ever seen? Estimates of the money flowing out of China are merely guesses, of course, but the numbers run into the tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars.
Those in the political/financial Elites have the best information about conditions in China. What speaks louder, actions, or empty words? Actions, without a doubt. It's difficult to see how China can be as stable as advertised when its monied Elites all have back doors out of the country and homes awaiting them in the West. The most fearful (or guilty) aren't waiting around to risk the future in China; they're already long gone. What does that say about the front door pronouncements of hegemony and dreams? The inconvenient truth is the Chinese Dream is to live in Palo Alto:
Why Chinese People Buy So Many Homes in Palo Alto (The Atlantic)
Chinese Dream: To Become the Father of an American, by Jia Jia "When Bill Clinton visited China in 1998, a female student named Ma Nan at Peking University stood up and denounced the appalling human rights condition in the US. She was supposed to file a question, but she sounded more like she was delivering a lecture. Later on, she married an American man, gave birth to a son, became the mother of an American, and departed China for good."
Young, Gifted, and Chinese "Facing the future of housing, marriage, and job, why do our hearts beat not with expectations but fear?"
Fitch says China credit bubble unprecedented in modern world history
China in Revolution and War "Several serious problems in China could trigger a major crisis, potentially igniting either a domestic revolution or foreign war."
How will a slowing China cope with rapidly aging buildings?
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via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/nGN2arQ6njI/story01.htm Tyler Durden