Joke Of The Week: Italy’s Bank Rescue Fund

Italian Banks Bank of Italy

Source: assets.bwbx.io

Italian banks have been facing rough seas for quite a while now as the total amount of non-performing loans and bad debt is piling up now. The Italian state has been trying to find a solution for this increasingly important problem as all of its banks continue to report high write-downs on the value of their assets, which is undermining the health of the entire financial system in the country.

Italy had to do something which would keep the European bureaucrats happy (as any financial support would have to be injected without being seen as some sort of state aid). Previous media reports discussed the possibility of the European Central Bank acting as ‘saving grace’ of the Italian financial system, but the ‘whatever it takes’ adage seems to be another bold statement turning out to be hollow words. Of course, a central bank should not buy non-performing loans as that’s most definitely not a part of its mandate, but it also tells you that the ‘whatever it takes’ shout-out does come with some caveats.

ITalian Banks Impairment Charges

Source: Financial Times

The Italian state had to find a solution on its own, and the proposed way out of the current vicious circle is just laughable. Italy has proposed to start a bad-bank fund called Atlante, which would focus on buying distressed assets from the Italian banks to help them to improve their balance sheets once again. Theoretically that’s an excellent plan, but the size of the new fund is just laughable. Italy’s bad bank fund will have a total available cash resource of 5B EUR.

Italian Banks Bad Debt

Source: Financial Times via Thomson Reuters

Sure, 5 billion Euros sounds like a pretty decent amount of money, but you need to put things in perspective. According to the most recent estimates, the Italian financial system was holding in excess of 200 billion Euro of non-performing loans (‘NPL’) on the balance sheet, whilst at least the same (gross) amount could be described as ‘questionable’. So, the new fund has the size of less than 3% of the total amount of NPL’s in the sector and just over 1% of the total amount of bad loans.

That’s most definitely not sufficient as almost 40% of the funds will immediately be used to rescue the Banca Popolare di Vicenza which needs an injection of 1.8B EUR as soon as humanly possible to keep its balance sheet issues under control. And the other Italian banks will also be quite happy as they saw their share prices slide since the beginning of this year. Unicredit saw its share price fall by almost 50% since the end of last year, whilst Intesa Sanpaolo experienced a 25% drop in its share price.

Italian Bank Performance

Source: Financial Times

Italy thinks the 5B EUR will be sufficient to cover a lot of the expected losses as it says the banks have already recorded impairment charges on the value of their bad loans and this has been confirmed by the CEO of Intesa Sanpaolo a few months ago. He claims there’s close to zero risk of the banks collapsing, but we have heard this before.

But hey, let’s not worry. Italy has got this all figured out!

>>> Do you really trust the clowns who are running our financial system? No? Read our Guide to Gold RIGHT NOW!

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Is Deutsche Bank’s Gold Manipulation The Main Scam Or Just A Side-Show?

Submitted by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com,

For years now, the easiest way to finesse a debate over whether precious metals markets are manipulated has been to say, “well, if they’re not manipulated they’re the only market that isn’t.”

That was unsatisfying, though, because as the big banks got caught scamming their customers on interest rates, mortgage bonds, forex and commodities trades, those markets (presumably) began to operate more-or-less honestly. Gold and silver, meanwhile, kept right on acting strangely, for instance plunging in the middle of the night on no news but massive futures volume, to the detriment of honest investors and traders who naively bet their capital on fundamentals. The (already huge) amount of money thus stolen from gold bugs kept rising.

So it is with relief that fans of honest markets have greeted the news that at least one kind of precious metals manipulation has been exposed:

Deutsche Bank Settles Silver, Gold Price-Manipulation Suits

 

(Bloomgerg) – Deutsche Bank AG has reached settlements in lawsuits over allegations it manipulated gold and silver prices, lawyers for traders of the commodities said in court filings.

 

Attorneys for futures contract traders in two private lawsuits said in letters filed Wednesday and Thursday in Manhattan federal court that the bank has executed term sheets and is negotiating final details for the accords.

 

The German financial firm also agreed to help the plaintiffs pursue similar claims against other banks as part of the settlements, according to the letters. Vincent Briganti and Robert Eisler, attorneys for traders in the silver-fixing lawsuit, said Deutsche Bank will turn over instant messages and other communications to help further their case. Financial terms of the settlements weren’t disclosed.

 

“In addition to valuable monetary consideration to be paid into a settlement fund, the term sheet also provides for other valuable consideration such as provisions requiring Deutsche Bank’s cooperation in pursuing claims against the remaining defendants,” attorneys Daniel Brockett and Merrill Davidoff said in their letter Thursday in the gold-fixing lawsuit.

 

Silver and gold futures traders sued groups of banks in 2014 alleging they rigged prices for the precious metals and their derivatives. Silver traders brought claims against Deutsche Bank, HSBC Holdings Plc, Bank of Nova Scotia and UBS AG. Gold traders additionally sued Barclays Plc and Societe Generale SA.

 

The traders alleged the banks abused their positions of controlling daily silver and gold fixes to reap illegitimate profits from trading and hurting other investors in those markets who use the benchmark in billions of dollars of transactions, according to versions of the complaints filed in 2015. Of those banks, only Deutsche Bank has reached a settlement.

 

Amanda Williams, a spokeswoman for Deutsche Bank, declined to comment on either accord. Rick Roth, a spokesman for Scotiabank, the operating name for the Bank of Nova Scotia, and HSBC spokesman Robert Sherman also declined to comment. Representatives from UBS, Barclays and Societe Generale didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

 

The silver case is In re: London Silver Fixing Ltd. Antitrust Litigation, 1:14-md-02573. The gold case is In re: Commodity Exchange, Inc. Gold Futures and Options Trading Litigation, 14-md-2548, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan).

Deutsche Bank’s plea is of course just the beginning of the story. It will apparently name its co-conspirators, while providing details on how the scam was run. This will be interesting and amusing (those instant messages promise to be classic), especially at a time when those same banks are also in the news for falling earnings, rising layoffs and exploding loan loss reserves.

But is this gaming of the London precious metals fix the same thing as – or even tangentially related to – the main manipulation of the gold price, which is the practice of central banks “lending” their gold to big commercial banks, which then sell that gold on the open market to depress the price? These seem to be two different frauds, and if only the first comes to light while the second continues unimpeded, there’s no reason to expect precious metals to start trading rationally — which is to say in line with fundamentals like soaring global debt, ever-increasing money creation and general geopolitical and economic instability. At least not until Western central banks run out of gold.

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Hundreds Dead in Ecuador Earthquake, Trump Coins Nickname for Hillary, Impeachment Vote in Brazil: A.M. Links

  • A magnitude-7.8 earthquake in Ecuador has killed at least 272 people.
  • Donald Trump debuted a new campaign trail nickname for Hillary Clinton, “Crooked Hillary.” Meanwhile, supporters of Bernie Sanders threw dollar bills at Clinton while she was on her way to a fundraiser at George Clooney’s house.
  • This week the Supreme Court is hearing arguments over President Obama’s immigration actions.
  • Pope Francis accepted 12 refugees from Syria to the Vatican.
  • Legislators in Brazil voted to impeach the president, leading to parties on the beaches of Rio.
  • Phillipines presidential frontrunner Rodrigo Duterte says he won’t apologize for suggesting he should have been allowed to rape a lay minister during a prison riot first because he was mayor of the town when the gang rape happened.

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Multiple Clinton Connections Emerge As More “Panama Papers” Names Revealed

There has been much confusion, at time quite angry, how in the aftermath of the Soros-funded Panama Papers revelations few, if any, prominent U.S. name emerged as a result of the biggest offshore tax leak in history. Now, thanks to McClatchy more U.S. names are finally being revealed and it will probably come as little surprise that many of the newly revealed names have connection to both Bill and Hillary Clinton.

As McClatchy writes, donors to Clinton foundation used the Panamanian law firm for offshores, adding that the connections come from the more than 40 years Bill and Hillary Clinton have spent in public life. Ironically this comes just days after Hillary criticized those exposed in the Panama Papers, accusing them of looking to hide their wealth.

As McClatchy reports, Hillary Clinton recently blasted the hidden financial dealings exposed in the Panama Papers, but she and her husband have multiple connections with people who have used the besieged law firm Mossack Fonseca to establish offshore entities.

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Russia Frustrated After Doha Breakdown: “How Can Iran Be The Reason For Failure When It Wasn’t Even Here?”

After a fierce run of chaotic headlines leading up to the Doha meeting, where speculation of deal or no-deal was enough to make blood shoot out of your eyes, the results of the meeting are finally in.

As we learned earlier in the day, despite a leaked draft 24 hours earlier stating that there was in fact at least a gentleman’s agreement to freeze production at January levels, the talks broke down, oil futures crashed and crushed those who got long into the weekend, and all participants left the 12 hour session without agreeing on anything except that there is still a lot of work to be done if a deal is ever going to be reached.

Aside from setting up a lot of hedge funds for a bloody Monday morning, the breakdown in talks clearly frustrated Russia, who came out and blamed OPEC states for presenting demands on the morning of the talks in Doha and “undoing months of negotiations.”

As Russia Today reports, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak spoke to Russian media following the conclusion of the talks, and it was evident he was quite frustrated. Mr. Novak explained that the 11 OPEC states and seven outsiders present during the meeting had spent two months drafting an agreement that would cap oil production at January levels in an effort to stabilize oil prices, and it was all undone by the fact that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, and “predominantly other Gulf States” insisted that Iran be included in the deal (Iran did not attend the talks). The official was quoted as saying the following about the situation:

Some OPEC countries decided to change their terms at the last moment, trying to get concessions from countries that are not here. We were insisting on trying to concentrate on the countries which are.”


“How can Iran be the reason for the talks’ failure, when it wasn’t even here?”

He went on to say that Russia would be “unaffected” by the lack of a deal, but now any correction in oil prices would be delayed by about six months, with the market not recovering until mid-2017.

 

We can understand the source of his frustration of course, as just a few months ago it was reported that the Russian government was slashing it’s expenses by roughly $9.1 billion in an effort to offset sliding oil prices. The key here is that the 2016 budget has been set modeling $50/bbl oil by year end, which as of right now is down 21% from that level. Russia will have significant economic pressure by the lack of a deal in Doha, and it remains to be seen how well it can handle that.

As a visual reminder of how much Russia depends on the price of oil, in 2013 54% of Russia’s total export revenues came from oil and petroleum products.

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Frontrunning: April 18

  • Crude’s Losses Drag Ruble, Loonie Lower; Stocks Pare Their Drop (BBG)
  • Grand Oil Bargain Is Victim of Saudi Arabia’s Iran Fixation (BBG)
  • Both Parties’ Presidential Front-Runners Increasingly Unpopular (WSJ)
  • It’s up to you, New York: state takes center stage in election campaign (Reuters)
  • Rousseff Hangs by a Thread After Losing Impeachment Vote (BBG)
  • China March home prices rise at fastest rate in two years, top cities boom (Reuters)
  • Shaken Ecuador hunts for survivors amid 7.8 quake debris (Reuters)
  • Oil Worker Strike Cuts in Half Kuwait Crude Production (WSJ)
  • Greek lender mission chiefs resume reform talks in Athens (Reuters)
  • Greece’s Creditors Weigh Extra Austerity Measures to Break Deadlock (WSJ)
  • Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei Takes Aim at Donald Trump’s Trade Policies (WSJ)
  • The Hole at the Center of the Rally: S&P 500 Margins in Decline (BBG)
  • The Trucker’s Nightmare That Could Flatten Europe’s Economy (BBG)
  • London’s super-rich turn to renting (FT)
  • Treasury Market’s Fastest Traders Don’t Like Trading Treasuries (BBG)
  • Six corpses found in migrant boat, 108 rescued: Italy coast guard (Reuters)
  • Sunedison bankruptcy filing imminent (Reuters)
  • ECB not aiming to weaken euro against dollar: sources (Reuters)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

– Brazil’s Congress took a giant step toward removing President Dilma Rousseff from office Sunday when the lower house voted to send the impeachment process to the Senate for trial. (on.wsj.com/1S4kDXT)

– Verizon Communications Inc was among a handful of firms moving ahead with offers to buy Yahoo or parts of it, compared with the roughly 40 firms that had initially expressed interest, people familiar with the process said. (on.wsj.com/1S4kL9K)

– Residents of several coastal towns in Ecuador scrambled to free survivors trapped in the rubble of collapsed buildings after the country’s strongest earthquake in decades killed hundreds and destroyed homes, bridges and roads. (on.wsj.com/1S4kSCh)

– The world’s financial leaders gathered in Washington for IMF and World Bank meetings said that Beijing’s moves to stabilize its economy have temporarily eased global fears tied to the world’s No. 2 economy. (on.wsj.com/1S4kZ0t)

 

FT

– Rugby club Harlequins is seeking to raise about 15 million pounds ($21.27 million) by issuing a mini-bond, joining other sports teams that are finding alternative ways to bolster their finances by tapping fans for investment. (http://bit.ly/1YBU24V)

– HSBC Holdings Plc is committing a minimum of 10 billion pounds of loans to smaller businesses this year, in spite of the looming threat of the UK leaving the European Union. (http://bit.ly/1YBU8tk)

– Caixabank SA has launched a takeover bid for Banco BPI, pushing efforts to break a deadlock with Angolan billionaire Isabel dos Santos for control of the Lisbon-based lender. (http://bit.ly/1YBUbVM)

– Uncertainty over the outcome of Britain’s EU referendum in June is having a negative effect on business activity, as companies are pulling back on hiring and investment across sectors. (http://bit.ly/1YBUdwX)

 

NYT

– Amazon.com Inc is introducing new options to subscribe to its Prime membership service on a monthly basis, a change that could make the company’s video service a tougher competitor to Netflix. (http://nyti.ms/1SlVo21)

– SunEdison Inc, which grew from making chemicals and components for solar modules to become a giant of the renewable energy business, is preparing for bankruptcy, according to a filing with regulators on Friday. (http://nyti.ms/1VcqtIZ)

– Jose Cuervo, a brand of tequila that is over two centuries old, is preparing for an IPO, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The family-owned Mexican company is working with JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley to prepare for the deal, said the people, who asked not to be named because the process is still private. (http://nyti.ms/1paaRrs)

– XIO Group, a private equity firm co-founded in 2014 by the former head of BlackRock Alternative Investors for Asia Pacific, said on Friday that it had agreed to acquire J.D.Power and Associates for $1.1 billion from McGraw Hill Financial, in what will be its biggest investment yet and its first in the United States. (http://nyti.ms/1SUcNfC)

 

Britain

The Times

– AstraZeneca Plc has been tracking Medivation Inc for six months, and is yet to make a formal offer, but has held internal talks about a bid. (http://bit.ly/1YBUxf7)

– Standard Chartered Plc has spoken to Paul Tucker, the former deputy governor of the Bank of England, about becoming its chairman. (http://bit.ly/1YBUAHP)

The Guardian

– Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc has reduced its global lending to oil and gas companies and doubled its green energy loans in the UK to 1 billion pounds ($1.42 billion) a year, according to new figures released. (http://bit.ly/1YBUIqY)

– Britain would be “permanently poorer” if voters choose to leave the EU, George Osborne has warned, as a Treasury study claimed the economy would shrink by 6 percent by 2030, costing every household the equivalent of 4,300 pounds a year. (http://bit.ly/1YBUOPg)

The Telegraph

– Andrew Mackenzie, the chief executive of struggling mining giant BHP Billiton Plc, has joined the chorus of FTSE 100 bosses pleading with voters to opt to remain in the EU, claiming a Brexit could result in a ‘decade of disruption’ to trade agreements. (http://bit.ly/1WzOt8C)

Sky News

– Northern Ireland Secretary Theresa Villiers has insisted border arrangements between Ireland and the UK would not change if the public votes to leave the EU. (http://bit.ly/1WzOAkx)

The Independent

– Norway’s $860 billion sovereign wealth fund has unveiled the first list of miners and power producers to be excluded from its portfolio following a ban on coal investments. (http://ind.pn/1WzOIQM)

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Bernie’s Right—America Should Be More Like Sweden: New at Reason

America’s leading democratic socialist presidential Make America Sweden Againcontender Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) loves to tout the domestic policies of Sweden and other Scandinavian countries as a model example for what the U.S. should emulate.

Swedish native Johan Norberg says Sanders is correct, the U.S. should be more like Sweden, but not in the way the senator thinks:

When he asks for “trade policies that work for the working families of our nation and not just the CEOs of large, multi-national corporations,” Social Democrats in Sweden would take this to mean trade liberalization—which would have the benefit of exposing monopolist fat cats to competition—not the protectionism that Sanders favors.

Norberg also agrees with Sanders that the Scandinavian social welfare model is preferable to the U.S. version of a safety net. But that also comes with a cost Sanders hasn’t considered, which is “squeezing the poor and the middle class” because “unlike the rich, poor and middle-class people don’t flee or dodge when they’re taxed aggressively.”

View this article.

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Morgan Stanley Profit Plunges By More Than 50% As Trading Revenue Tumbles 40%

Moments ago Morgan Stanley became the fourth major US bank to report earnings which unlike its previously reporting peers, JPM, Wells and Citi, were far more simple to digest due to the lack of bank loan balance sheet arbitrage and reliance on Net Interest Margin. After all, after Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley is the closest to relying almost entirely on marginal trading revenue as well as its all important wealth management unit.

The results were quite ugly: total revenue of $7.8 billion barely changed from the previous quarter, and was down 21% from Q1 2015, however due to the sharp drop in consensus estimates in recent months, revenues was a “beat” to the $7.76 billion expected.

Earnings likewise were ugly, tumbling by 53% from $2.4 billion to $1.1 billion, or $0.55 per share. This too was a beat as a result of a sharp plunge in Q1 EPS expectations in recent months.

And while the bank’s wealth management unit, which at March 31 had total client assets of $2 trillion, kept revenues flat, declining just 2% to $2.6 billion in Q1, it was the plunge in trading revenue which raised some eyebrows: plunging 43% from a year ago, the company reported just $2.1 billion in revenue from trading, while investment banking dropped a notable 18% to $1.1 billion in Q1. Hardly the results one would associate with stable growth.

The full breakdown of MS’ income statement:

 

Some highlights from the press release:

  • Institutional Securities net revenues were $3.7 billion reflecting challenging market conditions in Fixed Income & Commodities sales and trading and underwriting, with strength in Equity sales and trading and M&A advisory.
  • Equity sales and trading net revenues of $2.1 billion decreased from $2.3 billion from a year ago primarily reflecting declines in cash equities in volatile global equity markets, partly offset by continued strength in prime brokerage.
  • Compensation expenses of $1.4 billion decreased from $2.0 billion a year ago on lower revenues. Non-compensation expenses of $1.4 billion for the current quarter decreased from $1.6 billion a year ago primarily reflecting lower litigation costs

And the all important FICC:

  • Fixed Income & Commodities sales and trading net revenues of $873 million decreased from $1.9 billion a year ago. Results reflect lower commodities revenues given the depressed energy price environment and the disposition of the Oil Merchanting business in the fourth quarter of 2015. Results for the current quarter also reflect lower levels of client activity in rates and foreign exchange and a challenging credit environment.

Hint: clients better step up their activity soon.

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Analysts Respond To Doha Meeting Failure: “Blow To Sentiment”

Failure to proceed with crude output freeze plan seen as a “serious blow” to oil-market sentiment by Energy Aspects; Barclays expects mounting tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran to boost volatility. Separately, Kuwait oil workers strike viewed as price-supportive.  Here, courtesy of Bloomberg, is a summary of what analysts have said so far on meeting’s outcome as well as comments on Kuwait:

Barclays analysts including Miswin Mahesh

  • Meeting was a “complete failure” in terms of building trust among producers regarding future action; shows how hard it would be to ever coordinate production cuts; Event exposed “political rift” between Saudi Arabia and Iran
  • “The uncertainty in the market with regards to the next meeting and the developing geopolitical backdrop with regards to Iran and Saudi Arabia, will continue to lead to oil market volatility”
  • Also says that a protracted oil-worker strike in Kuwait would tighten physical oil markets significantly

Energy Aspects analysts including Amrita Sen

  • Failure of talks is “serious blow” to sentiment even if freezing would have had little impact on supply/demand balances
  • Though prices may slip below $40/bbl in “knee-jerk reaction” Monday, selloff could be mitigated by news of Kuwaiti output losses
  • Saudi demands over Iran’s participation in any potential freeze deal “hints at influence from either domestic or regional politics”

Morgan Stanley analysts including Adam Longson

  • Saudis can push oil market rebalancing to 2018; Morgan Stanley sees growing risk of higher OPEC supply amid lack of agreement
  • Rebalancing seen in 2018 if Saudi Arabia boosts output to >11m b/d as “threatened”

Bloomberg First Word strategist Julian Lee

  • Saudi Arabia won’t shed tears over breakdown of talks; Surge in supplies from Iran, Iraq just before meeting gave Saudi Arabia perfect excuse to refuse to freeze its own output
  • Saudi Arabia probably didn’t want oil price to go much higher since that might encourage return of higher-cost production

Goldman Sachs analysts including Damien Courvalin

  • Outcome bearish because consensus was for “soft guidance” on a freeze at Jan. levels
  • Kuwait oil worker strike is bullish; “can lend further support to the recent strength in Brent and Dubai timespreads”

BMI Research analyst Peter Lee

  • While outcome of meeting may sustain negative sentiment, supply/demand fundamentals unchanged
  • Meeting’s outcome wasn’t a surprise

JPM’s Early Look at the markets

  • The Doha deal collapse really isn’t as notable as its being made out to be given Iran and Libya were never going to participate and of the remaining countries only Saudi Arabia actually has the capacity to increase output (and there aren’t any indications it is planning to do so). 
  • Meanwhile, a strike in Kuwait (announced Sun) will cut that country’s output by >1MM BPD for the time being. 
  • The months-long oil rebound has been helped in part by the freeze whispers from OPEC and Russia but the material decline in US production has played just as important a role (and actually while the lack of agreement Sun reflected the widening cold war between Riyadh and Tehran, it was prob. motivated also by a desire to ensure the US shale industry stays disciplined). 
  • While oil prob. won’t set fresh highs for the time being, Brent should hold the high-$30s.  In addition to Doha/oil, the other big weekend news involved Brazil (the lower house voted to impeach Rousseff by a larger-than-expected margin) and Japan (the country suffered a series of earthquakes in the last few days while the int’l community expressed little sympathy for Tokyo’s strong yen problems).

Source: BBG

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The CDC Keeps Lying About Adolescent Vaping and Tobacco Use

Public health officials who see the rise of vaping as a sinister development, rather than an opportunity to dramatically reduce smoking-related disease and death, insist on calling e-cigarettes “tobacco products,” even though they do not contain tobacco. The bizarre consequences of that scientifically unsound label can be seen in a recent press release from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that deliberately obscures a decline in teenagers’ tobacco use by pretending it did not happen.

Each year the CDC’s National Youth Tobacco Survey asks high school and middle school students about their use of six tobacco products: cigarettes, bidis (leaf-wrapped cigarettes), cigars, pipe tobacco, shisha (used in hookahs), and smokeless tobacco. According to data published on Friday, teenagers’ consumption of all but one tobacco product fell between 2011 and 2015. The only exception was hookahs, use of which rose from 2011 to 2014 before falling last year in both age groups. But hookahs are not nearly as popular as cigarettes were in 2011: The rate of past-month hookah use by high school students last year was about 7 percent, compared to 16 percent for cigarettes in 2011. So the CDC  is contradicting its own data when it announces that there was “no decline in overall youth tobacco use since 2011.”

The CDC reaches that puzzling conclusion by treating tobacco-free, noncombustible e-cigarettes as equivalent to the conventional kind. Instead of welcoming the substantial decline in past-month cigarette smoking among teenagers, which fell from 15.8 percent in 2011 to 9.3 percent in 2015, it bemoans the dramatic increase in past-month vaping, which rose from 1.5 percent in 2011 to 16.5 percent in 2015. As far as the CDC is concerned, the rise of vaping completely erases the progress represented by the decline in smoking.

Given the enormous difference between the risks posed by smoking and the risks posed by vaping (which is something like 95 percent less hazardous), that position is scientifically absurd. When vaping replaces smoking, that should count as a public health victory, not a setback. To the extent that teenagers who otherwise would be cigarette smokers are using e-cigarettes instead (a development that is consistent with the fact that smoking and vaping rates are moving in opposite directions), the CDC should be celebrating.

The CDC worries that teenagers who otherwise never would have tried tobacco will start vaping, get hooked on nicotine, and then move on to smoking. There is very little evidence that e-cigarettes are a “gateway” to the real thing, a fear that seems inconsistent with the ongoing declines in smoking among both adults and teenagers. While past-month use of e-cigarettes has shot up among teenagers in recent years, it may consist mainly of experimentation. Data from other surveys indicate that almost all regular vapers are current or former smokers.

The CDC also overlooks the fact that the vast majority of teenagers who try vaping use nicotine-free e-liquids. In the 2014 Monitoring the Future Study, only 22 percent of high school seniors who vaped “reported inhaling nicotine.” So when the CDC equates adolescent vaping with tobacco use, it is mainly talking about products that not only do not contain tobacco but do not even contain the same psychoactive ingredient as tobacco.

Even if there were a stronger basis for the CDC’s concerns, they would not justify lying to the public about adolescent tobacco use, which contrary to what the agency says is falling, not flat. “Overall tobacco use by middle and high school students has not changed since 2011,” says the CDC. That simply is not true, and no amount of rhetorical wriggling can make it so.

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