Microsoft Sues Obama Administration “To Keep Secrecy The Exception, Not The Rule”

The "most transparent administration ever" appears to be making no friends in the tech industry. Following its debacle with Apple, the Obama administration now faces a suit from Microsoft that, in their words, stands up for "customers’ constitutional and fundamental rights – rights that help protect privacy and promote free expression." As Microsoft's Brad Smith notes, with rare exceptions consumers and businesses have a right to know when the government accesses their emails or records, and the suit centers around the fact that since cloud storage accelerated, it’s becoming routine for the U.S. government to issue orders that require email providers to keep these types of legal demands secret. Microsoft believe that this goes too far.

As Bloomberg reports, Microsoft Corp. sued the U.S. Justice Department in an attempt to stop the government from forcing it to turn its customers’ e-mails and other data over to law enforcement without their knowledge.

The lawsuit, which names the Justice Department and Attorney General Loretta Lynch, ratchets up the pressure by technology companies against the U.S. government and echoes a struggle by Apple Inc. to protect its customers’ privacy by refusing to undermine the encryption on its iPhones. Microsoft has been fighting the U.S. over customer privacy and its ability to disclose what it’s had to turn over to investigators for more than two years.

 

Microsoft called the 1986 Electronic Communications Privacy Act unconstitutional, citing its own First Amendment free speech rights and its customers’ Fourth Amendment right to know if the government has searched or seized their property. The law essentially places the company under an unlimited gag order, according to the complaint filed Thursday in U.S. district court in Seattle. While it’s concerned with protecting civil liberties, Microsoft said it also wants to preserve its ability to sell Internet-based services that customers trust.

 

“It’s very important for businesses to know when the government is accessing their file room, whether the file room is down the hall or in the cloud," said Microsoft President and Chief Legal Officer Brad Smith, noting that consumers and privacy groups have expressed concern about the issue. “People shouldn’t lose their rights simply because technology is moving to the cloud.”

 

Redmond, Washington-based Microsoft argues that the statute violates the company’s First Amendment free-speech rights by placing it under an unlimited gag order and customers’ Fourth Amendment right to know if the government has searched or seized their property.

The rapid growth of cloud computing, in which customer data is stored by providers like Microsoft, Apple Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Google Inc. in the technology companies’ own data centers, has increased both the frequency of warrants seeking data and government abuse of its search powers, Microsoft said in the filing. The law in question predates the invention of the World Wide Web by three years, and was enacted more than two decades before widespread use of cloud computing, Microsoft said. But, according to the complaint below…

The government, however, has exploited the transition to cloud computing as a means of expanding its power to conduct secret investigations. As individuals and business have moved their most sensitive information to the cloud, the government has increasingly adopted the tactic of obtaining the private digital documents of cloud customers not from the customers themselves, but through legal process directed at online cloud providers like  Microsoft. At the same time, the government seeks secrecy orders under 18 U.S.C. § 2705(b) to prevent Microsoft from telling its customers (or anyone else) of the government’s demands.

 

These secrecy orders generally assert that abiding by the centuries-old requirement of seeking evidence directly from its owner would jeopardize the government’s investigation. Most of the time, these secrecy orders prohibit notification for unreasonably long (or even unlimited) periods of time, which Section 2705(b) permits whenever a court has “reason to believe” any of several adverse consequences might otherwise ensue—including any time notice would “seriously jeopardiz[e] an investigation or unduly delay[] a trial.”

As Microsoft details on their blog, Keeping secrecy the exception, not the rule: An issue for both consumers and businesses…

This morning we filed a new lawsuit in federal court against the United States government to stand up for what we believe are our customers’ constitutional and fundamental rights – rights that help protect privacy and promote free expression. This is not a decision we made lightly, and hence we wanted to share information on this step and why we are taking it.

 

An issue of fundamental rights

 

We believe that with rare exceptions consumers and businesses have a right to know when the government accesses their emails or records. Yet it’s becoming routine for the U.S. government to issue orders that require email providers to keep these types of legal demands secret. We believe that this goes too far and we are asking the courts to address the situation.

 

To be clear, we appreciate that there are times when secrecy around a government warrant is needed. This is the case, for example, when disclosure of the government’s warrant would create a real risk of harm to another individual or when disclosure would allow people to destroy evidence and thwart an investigation. But based on the many secrecy orders we have received, we question whether these orders are grounded in specific facts that truly demand secrecy. To the contrary, it appears that the issuance of secrecy orders has become too routine.

 

The urgency for action is clear and growing. Over the past 18 months, the U.S. government has required that we maintain secrecy regarding 2,576 legal demands, effectively silencing Microsoft from speaking to customers about warrants or other legal process seeking their data. Notably and even surprisingly, 1,752 of these secrecy orders, or 68 percent of the total, contained no fixed end date at all. This means that we effectively are prohibited forever from telling our customers that the government has obtained their data.

 

We believe these actions violate two of the fundamental rights that have been part of this country since its founding. These lengthy and even permanent secrecy orders violate the Fourth Amendment, which gives people and businesses the right to know if the government searches or seizes their property. They also violate the First Amendment, which guarantees our right to talk to customers about how government action is affecting their data. The constitutional right to free speech is subject only to restraints narrowly tailored to serve compelling governmental interests, a standard that is neither required by the statute being applied nor met by the government in practice here.

 

An issue with important practical consequences

 

The issue also has practical implications, and it’s important to consider them.

 

First, the issue has vital practical ramifications given the evolution of technology. Before the digital age, individuals and businesses stored their most sensitive correspondence and other documents in file cabinets and desk drawers. As computers became prevalent, users moved their materials to local computers and on-premises servers, which continued to remain within a user’s physical possession and control. In both eras, the government had to give notice when it sought a warrant to seize private information and communications, except in the rarest of circumstances.

 

Cloud computing has spurred a profound change in the storage of private information. Today, individuals increasingly keep their emails and documents on remote servers in data centers – in short, in the cloud. But the transition to the cloud does not alter people’s expectations of privacy and should not alter the fundamental constitutional requirement that the government must – with few exceptions – give notice when it searches and seizes private information or communications.

 

The same is true for businesses large and small. In the past, when a business’ email server was housed in its own building, the government by definition had to give notice in order to enter the building or otherwise require the business to produce an employee’s emails. Now businesses actively are migrating their information technology infrastructure to servers hosted by cloud service providers. In this new context, the government’s secrecy orders forbid cloud service providers from letting businesses know that the government has obtained their data. Not surprisingly, business customers regularly convey to us their strong desire to know when the government is obtaining their data. And not surprisingly, they want the opportunity for their own lawyers to review the situation and help decide whether to turn over information or contest the issue in court.

 

In 2013 we committed publicly to challenging individual secrecy orders for legitimate business customers, given our belief that the government can often obtain the information it needs from the headquarters of a business without notifying a specific individual there who is under investigation. In some cases we’ve convinced the government to redirect its request to our business customers. In other cases we’ve litigated the issue, and, in one recent situation, the government argued that we should be held in contempt for refusing to turn over email until a court ruled on the secrecy issue. Fortunately, we prevailed on the contempt issue in that case. But as we’ve monitored requests over time, we’ve concluded that this issue is recurring and needs to be considered in the context of the broader constitutional rights that are at stake.

 

It’s also important to consider the issue in the practical context of government investigations. Even if there is a solid basis for secrecy at the beginning of an investigation, circumstances can change. The government may drop the investigation or may take some step that alerts an individual to its existence. Yet even then these lengthy or permanent secrecy orders prevent cloud service providers from discussing with the customer the fact that his or her emails were accessed.

 

An issue that calls for a principled solution

 

Whenever we raise concerns such as these, we try to couple our focus on the problem with some suggestions for possible solutions. We definitely appreciate that we do not have all the answers and that others may offer better ideas than we have thought about so far. But we believe it’s important to help think constructively about possible steps forward.

 

While today’s lawsuit is important, we believe there’s an opportunity for the Department of Justice to adopt a new policy that sets reasonable limitations on the use of these types of secrecy orders. Congress also has a role to play in finding and passing solutions that both protect people’s rights and meet law enforcement’s needs. If the DOJ doesn’t act, then we hope that Congress will amend the Electronic Communications Privacy Act to implement reasonable rules. In fact, secrecy provisions in ECPA today are out of step with other U.S. laws that contain clearer limitations on secrecy provisions and allow law enforcement flexibility for extensions.

 

If policymakers update the rules governing secrecy orders, we hope they will be guided by three principles that we think are important for our customers and for law enforcement. First, transparency: People have a right to know as soon as reasonably possible when the government serves a provider with a legal demand to access their records or emails. Providers like Microsoft have a right to inform customers and be transparent with the public. Second, digital neutrality: Customers generally shouldn’t be entitled to less notice just because they have moved their emails to the cloud. And finally, necessity:  Secrecy orders should be adapted to what’s necessary for the investigation, and no more. If there’s a good reason to justify a secrecy order initially and that reason continues, prosecutors should be able to extend the order based on necessity. If not, we should be able to tell our customer what happened.

 

As I noted at the beginning, we don’t take lightly this type of action – filing a lawsuit against any government. We only do so when we believe that critical principles and important practical consequences are at stake. Today’s lawsuit is the fourth public case we’ve filed against the U.S. government related to our customers’ right to privacy and transparency. The first lawsuit resulted in a good and appropriate settlement allowing us to disclose the number of legal requests we receive. The second resulted in the government withdrawing a National Security Letter after we challenged a non-disclosure order attached to the letter. The third, a challenge to a U.S. search warrant for customer email in Ireland belonging to a non-US citizen, is pending in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit.

 

Today’s suit, filed in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Washington, can be found here.

 

Ultimately, we view this case as similar to the other three that we have filed. It involves the fundamental right of people and businesses to know when the government is accessing their content and our right to share this information with them.

*  *  *

Full Microsoft Complaint below…

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Have Oil Stocks Recovered Their “Line In The Sand”?

Via Dana Lyons' Tumblr,

A key index of oil stocks has moved back above its (temporarily broken) 30-year up trendline…for now.

“If the XOI can reclaim that broken trendline, perhaps it can once again serve as support for the oil stock index as it did for 30 years. Not to mention, it would look like a compelling “false breakdown”. These factors could serve as a springboard to a major, sustainable rally in oil stocks.” – March 8 post: The Line In The (Oil) Sand

As modern trendlines go, the 30-year up trendline in the NYSE Oil & Gas Index, a.k.a.,  XOI, is among the most prolific (behind perhaps only the decades-long down trendlines in 30-year U.S. treasury yields and the Japanese Nikkei 225.) The uptrend in the XOI (on a log scale) began just after the inception of the index in 1986 and connects the 2003 lows and the lows of last August, September and December. The trendline was finally broken in January, paving the way for an 18% plunge in about 2 weeks.

Subsequently, the XOI bounced back to test the underside of the trendline, prompting our March 8 post. In the post, we suggested that those trying to decipher whether or not oil stocks had bottomed might be well served to simply focus on whether the XOI could reclaim its broken trendline or not. If not, expect continued weakness with potential further new lows. If it was successful in reclaiming the line, then the bullish potential was considerable, as mentioned in the opening paragraph. As of yesterday, it appears as if the XOI has reclaimed its broken 30-year uptrend.

 

image

 

Now does this mean you go all-in oil stocks and forget about them for 5 years? Of course not. For one, we don’t ever recommend leaving any investment unattended without some form of risk controls standing by. Secondly, despite the recovered trendline, there remain some shorter-term challenges for the XOI nearby. Specifically, the index is now testing its post-2014 down trendline, also on a log scale. On top of that is the 200-day moving average and an assortment of key Fibonacci Retracement lines from the key tops over the past few years as shown in this chart.

 

image

 

So the reclaimed 30-year trendline is not a be-all and end-all. It could fall back below the line again as it did last month. Furthermore, the fact that it has broken the line likely means the trendline has been softened up a bit. However, for objectivity’s sake it may be the best decision-maker available for those traders/investors considering jumping (back) into oil stocks – or those still waiting to cut their losses.

Whatever the case may be, the line is relevant on a 30-year basis so it carries significant weight. At the very least, it provides a clear line in the sand nearby to trade against. And if the XOI decides to remain above that line in the sand, oil bulls may finally get their long awaited recovery.

*  *  *

More from Dana Lyons, JLFMI and My401kPro.

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Hillary Clinton Accused of Using “Static Noise Machine” at Colorado Fundraiser


Typical Clinton shadiness. Gawker is reporting the following:

Last week, a local Denver journalist named Stan Bush reported that Hillary Clinton’s campaign appeared to be using a hidden static noise machine to prevent reporters and other passerby from hearing the candidate’s stump speech at an outdoor fundraiser held at the private residence of Colorado’s governor, John Hickenlooper. The general allegation hung in odd kind of limbo, however, since Bush managed to record the machine’s (inherently indiscriminate) sound but was unable to photograph the actual device, while Clinton’s press shop ignored reporters’ attempts to confirm the machine’s existence. Meanwhile, the underlying question went unanswered: Why was Clinton using a static noise machine in the first place?

continue reading

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Bernie Sanders Could Make Tonight’s Debate Interesting By Taking on Hillary Clinton the Way His Supporters Do

Queens is Berning.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY) will face off for what will likely be the final time on a debate stage in Brooklyn’s Navy Yard at 9p ET tonight.

The two presidential hopefuls have largely dispensed with niceties of late, but if Sanders —who has very little realistic chance left of securing the nomination — wants to make his criticisms count, he should follow the lead of his supporters and take on Clinton more directly than he ever has before. 

I spoke with some of Sanders’ supporters this past Tuesday afternoon, at the official opening of the campaign’s Queens headquarters in a co-working space in Long Island City.

A few dozen volunteers mingled before being schooled on the art of “the personal story” from seasoned campaign staff veterans, who also taught the newbies about the finer points of canvassing and phonebanking as the final hours before tonight’s crucial Democratic debate a few miles away in Brooklyn ticked away.

The Sanders campaign is pouring resources into New York, which holds its primary (strictly limited to Democrats who registered by last October) next Tuesday. The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist poll has Sanders leading big among young people and independents, but still trailing Hillary Clinton by 14 points state-wide. Moreover, Clinton bests Sanders in densely-populated New York City and its surrounding suburbs. 

As is typical of Bernie-related gatherings, supporters were filled with awe of the Vermont senator’s “authenticity” and a passion for opposing “money in politics.” For the most part, they said they would support Clinton if she were the nominee, though many felt the former secretary of state was a force of the “status quo” rather than “the revolution” promised by her democratic socialist opponent.

The special guest celebrity speaker, Ed Droste of the indie rock band Grizzly Bear,Not an actual Grizzly Bear. spoke about his background as a standard-issue Democrat but that he “didn’t realize how much corruption there was in both parties” until he came across Bernie Sanders’ message. He added, “There is one thing that will not change if we don’t elect Bernie and that is money corrupting the government.”

When I asked Matt, a man in his late 20s, why he decided to offer up his time for this political campaign, he answered “urgency.” He said he believed Clinton’s supposed liberal turn this primary season is “only a matter of convenience for her” because of the pressure placed on her by Sanders’ surprisingly resilient insurgency.

Last night, 27,000 people flocked to Manhattan’s Washington Square Park to hear celebrities like Spike Lee, Tim Robbins, and Rosario Dawson hawk Sanders’ political wares, before the candidate himself gave his typical stump speech centered around “billionaires buying elections,” “free public college for all,” and “rethinking the war on drugs” by ending the militarization of police and removing removing marijuana from the list of federally controlled substances. 

There’s no question that Sanders has been able to roust a level of enthusiasm among the progressive left unseen even during Barack Obama’s rise to the presidency. But unlike Obama, who stunned Clinton with a series of early primary and caucus victories, Sanders has always been nipping at Clinton’s heels, essentially running a more competitive than expected protest campaign rather than a ready-for-prime-time bid.

Though Sanders promised a “positive” campaign and has largely refrained from stinging attacks on his only rival for the nomination, the Democratic race has turned particularly nasty of late, with Sanders recently questioning whether Clinton is “qualified” to be president based on her regrettable vote in favor of the Iraq War and ties to “Wall Street.”

In a demonstration of how even the hint of intra-party criticism has shaken the Clinton campaign, its chief strategist Joel Berenson had threatened to pull out of the next debate unless the Sanders campaign adjusted its “tone” (naturally leading to the Twitter backlash hashtag #tonedownforwhat). Berenson also slammed the Brooklyn-born senator for “campaigning like a Brooklynie,” an odd insult coming from a senior staffer of a campaign that based its national headquarters in the old money enclave of Brooklyn Heights

Sanders himself is coming off a tough week caused largely by unforced errors, highlighted by what’s been nearly-universally described as a disastrous interview with the New York Daily News, where he had trouble answering basic questions about policies he’s been hawking for the past year and a half. The Daily News followed up by officially endorsing Clinton, whom they described as a “superprepared warrior realist.”

Sanders’ supporters are motivated by the passion of protest and when they talk about Hillary Clinton, they’re not nearly as skittish as Sanders is to be direct about what they see as her failings. If the ideas made relevant by his now fading campaign — which has thrived thus far on its oft-stated “authenticity” — are to have any lasting impact, Sanders would do well to follow his supporters lead and treat Clinton the way they do, with jaundiced skepticism.

Take Matt from Tuesday’s gathering in Queens, who told me he believes Clinton will abandon many of the principles she’s currently espousing, like criminal justice reform, which he says is just a smokescreen to cover her past acceptance of campaign contributions from the private prison industry. He added, “it’s only when people start paying attention to where the money is coming from that she’s suddenly against it.”

The opportunities to underscore the few issues where Sanders truly stands apart from Clinton are ready and waiting to be scrutinized.

Like the fact that neither Hillary nor Bill Clinton can give a coherent assessment on the part they played in politically exploiting the national freakout over crime in the 1990s, which has contributed to both mass incarceration and an epidemic of overcriminalization mostly affecting low-income and minority communities. At last count, they were for 1994 crime bill, then regretted it, and now they just get pissy anytime someone brings it up in their presence. 

Or perhaps Sanders could stop flailing around in a panic whenever a foreign policy question comes up on the debate stage, and show up with a prepared argument at least as polished as his “free college and a pony” crowdpleasers. He could lay out to the voters once and for all why a world with a less trigger-happy President Sanders would be a safer one than the one where a “superprepared warrior realist” with a track record of helping to create terrorist-haven failed states is in the White House.

Finally, though he’s sworn he doesn’t care about her “damn emails,” Sanders continues to allow Clinton’s predilection for behaving as though she is both above the law and beyond the reach of transparency to get a pass, out of fear that he would somehow be a pawn in a Benghazi-like Republican smear obsession. 

Despite his current winning streak, a trouncing in the Empire State could spell the denouement of Bernie-mentum. And while Bernie would never be mistaken for a libertarian, he’s the last candidate standing in either major party who is consistently anti-interventionist, as well as in favor of drug reform and criminal justice reform.

These crucially important platforms, all relevant to both progressives and libertarians, will be relegated to little-seen third party debates once Sanders packs it in. That alone is reason enough to hope Sanders debates like a Brooklynite tonight. 

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Fed Admits “Won’t Stop The Music”

During a post-presentation Q&A in Chicago this morning, Atlanta Fed head Dennis Lockhart warned investors that Brexit is a notable risk and was a consideration within Fed policy meetings (along with every global nation's problems, we presume). However, it was his follow-up comment that has created notable chatter among the "mandate-driven","data-dependent" Fed watching community when he said that any Brexit issues "shouldn't stop the music" for The Fed.

  • *LOCKHART SAYS BREXIT IS CONSIDERATION IN FED POLICY SETTING
  • *LOCKHART: BREXIT IS RISK, HOW IT SHOULD BE WEIGHED IS UNCLEAR
  • *LOCKHART SAYS BREXIT RISK SHOULDN'T "STOP THE MUSIC" FOR FED

So did The Fed just admit that it is indeed the Pied-Piper of the markets?

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First Silver, Now Gold: Deutsche Bank Admits It Also Rigged Gold Prices

Well, that didn’t take long.

Earlier today when we reported the stunning news that DB has decided to “turn” against the precious metals manipulation cartel by first settling a long-running silver price fixing lawsuit which in addition to “valuable monetary consideration” said it would expose the other banks’ rigging having also “agreed to provide cooperation to plaintiffs, including the production of instant messages, and other electronic communications, as part of the settlement” we said “since this is just one of many lawsuits filed over the past two years in Manhattan federal court in which investors accused banks of conspiring to rig rates or prices in financial and commodities markets, we expect that now that DB has “turned” that much more curious information about precious metals rigging will emerge, and will confirm what the “bugs” had said all along: that the precious metals market has been rigged all along.”

This was confirmed moments ago when Reuters reported that Deutsche Bank has also reached a settlement in US litigation alleging the bank conspired to fix gold prices. In other words, hours after admitting it was rigging the silver market, it did the same for gold.

Some more headlines from Reuters:

  • Reaches settlement in U.S. litigation alleging it conspired to fix gold prices.
  • Plaintiffs’ lawyers, in filing, say Deutsche Bank has signed a settlement term sheet
  • Plaintiffs’ lawyers say are negotiating formal settlement agreement that would be presented for judge’s approval later
  • Plaintiffs’ lawyers say settlement contemplates a monetary payment by Deutsche Bank
  • Gold settlement follows similar accord involving alleged silver price-fixing that was disclosed on Wednesday

We will share more as soon as it becomes available as well as the full details of the settlement.

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The Cruelty of the $15 Minimum Wage: New at Reason

The $15 minimum wage just went from “laughable” to “viable”—as a New York Times headline put it—to the law of the land for millions of New York and California residents.

In April 2016, the Empire and Golden states almost simultaneously passed laws that will boost the state-mandated wage floor to $15 over the next few years for all workers—a high-stakes bet that the law of supply and demand doesn’t apply to human labor.

To discuss the potential impact of the $15 minimum wage, Reason’s Nick Gillespie sat down with Don Boudreaux, an economist at George Mason University, who writes frequently about the minimum wage at his blog, Cafe Hayek.

Click above to watch the video. Click below for downloadable versions. 

View this article.

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After Trump, The Deluge – What’s Next For The GOP?

Via RasmussenReports.com,

It’s hard to imagine at this point who will emerge from the mess the Republican party is making of itself to be the GOP standard-bearer in the fall.

 

Donald Trump’s opponents within the party unable to find a candidate who can excite the voters have spent $70 million so far on ads to tear the front-runner down, and they seem to be working: Trump’s momentum has been halted. But that could all change over the next couple weeks if the billionaire businessman hangs on to win the delegate-rich New York and Pennsylvania primaries.

Whatever the outcome in those states, Trump and his closest remaining rival, Senator Ted Cruz, are likely to enter the Republican National Convention in July short of the number of state delegates they need to win the nomination outright. In the meantime, who knows what games party officials will play with the rules to deny the voter-chosen favorite the nomination? One longtime party player has already signaled that Cruz will be discarded once he stops Trump.

So then what will party leaders do? Give the nomination to Ohio Governor John Kasich whose entire campaign is predicated on convention chaos? Will they trust their fortunes in a national election to a nominee who can’t even win Republican votes? Will they have any choice? House Speaker Paul Ryan, a man who definitely has an eye to the future, isn’t going to risk his brand by alienating angry Trump and Cruz voters forever, and most other ambitious Republicans are likely to share that view. So it may be Kasich by default or some other senior Republican like Mitt Romney who is willing to take one for the team. At this point, it seems clear that GOP leaders would rather lose the election than risk losing their place at the dinner table during a Trump presidency.

Democrats may find themselves in a similar place if Hillary Clinton is indicted for mishandling classified information while serving as secretary of State although that’s an increasingly unlikely scenario. Elizabeth Warren, the future queen of the party, isn’t going to risk that future on an election this chaotic, so since Democratic party leaders have made it clear that the nominee will not be Bernie Sanders, look for an old-timer like Joe Biden to jump in as a one-term alternative. This clears the way for Warren in 2020 who’ll face much clear sailing against the wreckage of what once was the Grand Old Party.

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Best. Admission. Ever: “Argentina Is No Longer Lying About Its Statistics… It Used To Lie Obscenely”

We have toi congratulate Argentina, and its minister of the economy Alfonso Prat-Gay, for being the first country to not only admit its economic data has been a completey fraud, but that it lied about it for years.

  • ARGENTINA IS NO LONGER LYING ABOUT ITS STATISTICS: PRAT-GAY
  • ARGENTINE STATS AGENCY WAS `USED TO LIE OBSCENELY’: PRAT-GAY

We wonder when China and the U.S. will catch up to the Latin American country, and admit the same.

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Dear Janet: Your Own Atlanta Fed’s “Core” Inflation Tracker Is At Six Year Highs

First the AtlantaFed (with occasional shoulder-tapping exceptions) created a mini revolt in the way GDP was tracked on a day to day basis with its GDP Nowcast, one which pressured the NY Fed to create its own version (influenced by Goldman’s own economic models as the Atlanta Fed’s number are seen as too pessimistic), and now the same Atlanta Fed is casting serious doubt over the government’s official inflation numbers, with its own “sticky-price” CPI tracker.

As it explains, “The Atlanta Fed’s sticky-price consumer price index (CPI)—a weighted basket of items that change price relatively slowly—rose 2.0 percent (annualized) in March, following a 2.7 percent increase in February. The 12-month percent change in the index was 2.5 percent.”

In other words, this is a tracker of core-core CPI.

The components that make up sticky vs flexible price items are revealed in the table below. Once again, the “stick-price” items are largely what the BLS defines as “core.”

Here is a brief summary of what this indicator measures:

Some of the items that make up the Consumer Price Index change prices frequently, while others are slow to change. We explore whether these two sets of prices—sticky and flexible — provide insight on different aspects of the inflation process. We find that sticky prices appear to incorporate expectations about future inflation to a greater degree than prices that change on a frequent basis, while flexible prices respond more powerfully to economic conditions— economic slack. Importantly, our sticky-price measure seems to contain a component of inflation expectations, and that component may be useful when trying to gauge where inflation is heading.

So where is inflation heading? According to the just released update from the Atlanta Fed, sticky inflation is now at a six year high and rising.

Perhaps the FOMC should consider this explanation of why US household spending continues to dwindle (as rising inflation on core purchases continues to eat away at the US household’s purchasing power) when deciding whether “global events” are enough to offset what are now clearly rapidly rising core inflation pressures.

 

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