Frontrunning: April 8

  • Stocks up as investors look to end bruising week on a high (Reuters)
  • Treasuries Set for Two-Week Gain; Greenspan Warns of Global Risk (BBG)
  • Yellen, alongside Fed alum, says rate hikes on track (Reuters)
  • Oil Prices Lifted by Fed Comments on U.S. Economy (WSJ)
  • China says G20 summit should be about economics, not politics (Reuters)
  • Cameron Accused of Hypocrisy for Stake in Father’s Offshore Fund (BBG)
  • US government to challenge MetLife ‘too big to fail’ decision (FT)
  • Kerry visits Iraq, showing support for embattled PM (Reuters)
  • The Unraveling of a Wall Street Scion (WSJ)
  • How Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen has made al Qaeda stronger – and richer (Reuters)
  • Pope calls for compassionate Church open to ‘imperfect’ Catholics (Reuters)
  • The Art of Calling Brazil’s Currency Rally From 6,700 Miles Away (BBG)
  • War of Words Escalates in Democratic Race (WSJ)
  • Travails of the active fund manager may only just be beginning (FT)
  • For NATO trainers, race against time to prepare Afghan troops to go it alone (Reuters)
  • No Love for Swiss Stocks Despite Record Payouts Versus Bonds (BBG)
  • ExIm Bank political stand-off robs Boeing of aircraft deals (FT)
  • Damage Extensive for Crippled U.S. Littoral Ship in Singapore (BBG)
  • Trump, under fire on many fronts, expands campaign team (Reuters)
  • Fed’s Williams eyes two 2016 rate hikes: Fox Business Network (Reuters)
  • ‘Batman v Superman’ Seen Earning Less Profit Than Superman Alone (BBG)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

– After losing a boardroom clash that pitted him against one of America’s best-known hedge-fund investors, the 83-year-old chief of the Seven & i Holdings Co, Toshifumi Suzuki, said he would step down. (http://on.wsj.com/1RTKaiP)

– Compensation for chief executives of the biggest U.S. companies fell more sharply last year than any year since the financial crisis, as weaker corporate performance slowed cash bonuses and accounting rules pared back pension growth. (http://on.wsj.com/22grTRO)

– Uber Technologies Inc agreed to pay up to $25 million to settle a lawsuit brought by the district attorneys of San Francisco and Los Angeles in 2014. (http://on.wsj.com/1STYH0n)

– Federal regulators said they would seek to revamp their oversight of an obscure but important part of the telecommunications market – the bulk data service – that telecom companies provide to businesses, including each other. (http://on.wsj.com/25OxCTm)

– With Wednesday’s agreement to amend terms with its loan holders, Valeant Inc has staved off the prospect of default in the near term. Valeant has to now pay a higher interest rate on its $11.6 billion in loans, as well as a fee. (http://on.wsj.com/22gSJt4)

– General Motors Co’s design chief, Ed Welburn, is retiring after more than four decades with the Detroit auto maker, handing the reins to a company insider, who is currently leading vehicle-styling efforts for international markets. (http://on.wsj.com/25OyOWS)

 

FT

Prime Minister David Cameron has disclosed that he had a stake in a fund set up in Panama by his father. (http://on.ft.com/1SDDvsP)

Former chairman of Tata Group, Ratan Tata defended the decision to sell its UK steel operations calling them “underinvested and overmanned”. (http://on.ft.com/1SDDDss)

A former Barclays banker has tried to implicate three senior Barclays executives, claiming they were aware of the practice. (http://on.ft.com/1SDDLbn)

A British vote to leave the EU would “gravely weaken” Europe and could trigger the end of the continent’s influence as a superpower, former prime minister John Major said. (http://on.ft.com/1SDE2es)

 

NYT

– Investment firm Starboard Value disclosed in a regulatory filing on Thursday that it planned to fight for a presence on the board of DepoMed Inc, a specialty pharmaceutical company. The hedge fund said it had built up a 9.8 percent stake in the drug maker. (http://nyti.ms/1NcytBP)

– Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve chairwoman, said that she did not regret the decision to start raising interest rates in December. “I certainly don’t regard it as a mistake,” Yellen said. (http://nyti.ms/23gNE9Z)

– Last month, the Indian government had issued additional rules governing foreign ownership of e-commerce companies operating in the country. The government added regulations related to pricing and the sourcing of sales on sites that Amazon.com Inc and several rivals appear to violate. (http://nyti.ms/1qxUwi3)

– General Motors Co on Thursday said it had settled a wrongful death case that was set to go to trial next month as part of ongoing litigation over the company’s defective ignition switches. (http://nyti.ms/1oHxinx)

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** Ottawa and Quebec face a possible new hurdle in their efforts to help Bombardier Inc and its troubled C Series aircraft – the U.S. government. The Obama administration has put the federal and provincial governments on notice that it considers the planned bailout of the Montreal-based company a worrisome barrier to trade, according to an annual compendium of dubious foreign practices by U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman. (http://bit.ly/1Vctn03)

** Alberta can no longer fuel the growth of Canada’s economy without the federal government’s help building a new pipeline, Premier Rachel Notley warned in a televised address on Thursday. (http://bit.ly/23ojtu6)

NATIONAL POST

** Postmedia Network Canada Corp has formed a special committee of independent directors to help “explore and review alternatives” aimed at improving its capital structure and liquidity as steep debt repayments weigh on the media company despite significant cost-cutting. (http://bit.ly/23ojZbx)

** Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd has attracted a powerful opponent to its proposed takeover of Norfolk Southern Corp – the U.S. Army. In a letter to the U.S. Surface Transportation Board, which must give its approval before any merger can go ahead, the army argues the proposed takeover raises national security concerns since both railroads own “hundreds of miles” of strategic rail lines and serve major military installations. (http://bit.ly/1S18xxg)

 

Britain

The Times

The average price of a house in the UK has jumped 10.1 per cent over the year to March, the fastest price growth since July 2014, according to Halifax house price index. (http://bit.ly/23mlPJL)

The yen rose to its highest level in 17 months on Thursday, squeezing Japanese exports as Tokyo authorities and independent economists struggled to understand the continuing failure of negative interest rates to tame the surging currency. (http://bit.ly/1ULPpab)

The Guardian

A sharp drop in British productivity has cast further doubt over the country’s economic prospects and will add to pressure on the government to prove its productivity plan can bear fruit. (http://bit.ly/1PW9brm)

Engineers working in France’s nuclear power industry have issued an impassioned defence of EDF’s 18 billion pound plan to build two reactors at Hinkley Point in Somerset. (http://bit.ly/1S04nWs)

The Telegraph

Steve Rowe, the new chief executive of Marks & Spencer , has branded the retailer’s long-suffering clothing division “unsatisfactory” after posting another slump in sales. (http://bit.ly/1MTPw0C)

European nations could launch a trade war against Britain if it votes to leave the EU, according to JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon. (http://bit.ly/1S62ISp)

Sky News

Pinewood, the film studio that is home to James Bond and Harry Potter, is drawing up proposals to enter the cinema industry by buying a stake in one of the UK’s boutique chains. (http://bit.ly/1V0ctlQ)

Mark Yallop, former Deutsche Bank and UBS executive, is in the frame to become the next chief executive of the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA). (http://bit.ly/1SgdqiU)

The Independent

Banks and other financial firms have been told they have a week to check if they are linked to Mossack Fonseca, the law firm at the centre of the Panama Papers leaks, the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) said on Thursday. (http://ind.pn/23kW3FO)

The controversial offshore fund founded by the Prime Minister’s late father is failing to pay off for its wealthy backers after losing thousands of dollars in value this year due to a string of bad bets. (http://ind.pn/1qxi0DN)

 



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Fed To Hold Unexpected Meeting Under “Expedited Procedures” On Monday To Discuss Rates

With everyone’s focus sharply attuned on anything to do with the Fed’s rate hike policy, many will probably wonder why yesterday the Fed announced that this coming Monday, April 11, the Fed will hold a closed meeting “under expedited procedures” during which the Board of Governors will review and determine advance and discount rates charged by the Fed banks.

As a reminder, the last time the Fed held such a meeting was on November 21, less than a month before it launched its first rate hike in years.


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Bill Clinton’s Mendacious Defense of the 1994 Crime Bill

While arguing with Black Lives Matter protesters during a speech in Philadelphia yesterday, Bill Clinton made several eyebrow-raising claims about the 1994 crime bill that he signed and his wife supported:

Democrats included longer prison sentences in the bill only because Republicans demanded them. According to Clinton, Joe Biden, who was the bill’s main sponsor in the Senate, said, “You can’t pass this bill, and the Republicans will kill it, if you don’t put more sentencing in.” Yet as first lady, Hillary Clinton cited tougher sentencing rules as one of the bill’s main advantages. “We need more and tougher prison sentences for repeat offenders,” she said in a 1994 speech. “The ‘three strikes and you’re out’ for violent offenders has to be part of the plan. We need more prisons to keep violent offenders for as long as it takes to keep them off the streets.” After the bill passed, the Clinton administration bragged about making sentences longer.

The 1994 bill caused historic declines in violent crime. “Because of that bill, we had a 25-year low in crime, a 30-year low in the murder rate,” Clinton said. “Because of that and the background check law, we had a 46-year low in the deaths of people by gun violence.” It’s true that violent crime has declined steadily since the early 1990s, and so have gun homicides. But that downard trend began before the 1994 crime bill took effect. While incapacitation of violent criminals played some role in that decline, the federal system accounts for a small share of the prison population, as Clinton emphasized yesterday. And to the extent that the 1994 law encouraged states to be more punitive, Clinton conceded in a 2015 interview with CNN, “we cast too wide a net and we had too many people in prison,” contributing to the “mass incarceration” his wife now decries. Clinton’s claim about the impact of the Brady Law, which required background checks for people who buy guns from federally licensed dealers, is even more dubious

Crack-related homicides are committed under the influence of crack. “I don’t know how you would characterize the gang leaders who got 13-year-old kids hopped up on crack and sent them out onto the street to murder other African-American children,” he told protesters. “Maybe you thought they were good citizens. She didn’t.” Contrary to the picture Clinton draws, so-called crack-related homicides are not caused by stimulant-fueled aggression. A 1997 analysis of “crack-related” homicides in New York City found that 85 percent were “systemic,” meaning they grew out of black-market disputes. About 7 percent occurred during crimes committed to support a crack habit. Only one homicide out of 118 involved a perpetrator who was high on crack. In other words, the vast majority of the violence that Clinton says motivated the 1994 crime bill is a predictable consequence of the prohibition policy he and his wife continue to support.

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Stocks To Reopen In The Green For 2016 After Crude, USDJPY Rebound

In the final day of the week, it has again been a story of currencies and commodities setting stock prices, however instead of yesterday’s Yen surge which slammed the USDJPY as low as 107.67 and led to a global tumble in equities, and crude slide, today has been a mirror imoage after a modest FX short squeeze, which sent the Yen pair as high as 109.1, before easing back to the 108.80 range. This, coupled with a 3.5% bounce in WTI, which is back up to $38.54 and up 4.9% on the week as speculation has returned that Russia and OPEC members can reach a production freeze deal on April 17, led to a global stock rebound which will see the S&P open back in the green for 2016.

This is the “unchanged for 2016” line:

 

And while it may seem that markets haven’t really gone anywhere this week, and we are back almost where we started off, it has been anything but a smooth ride because, in Bloomberg’s words, “markets whipsaw and currency volatility approach the highest since 2011” as shown in the chart below.

 

European equities trimmed a fourth weekly decline, their longest streak since October 2014, and U.S. index futures signaled the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will climb after the biggest plunge since February. The yen’s first drop in six days buoyed Japanese shares, while Spanish 10-year bonds pared their worst week this year. Gold and Treasuries fell as demand for havens eased.

“Markets are so unpredictable right now – there are risk-on days and there are times when everyone exaggerates the negatives,” Dirk Thiels, head of investment management at KBC Asset Management in Brussels, told Bloomberg. “The rebound was just about bringing valuations back to average, and not really a sign that any bearish sentiment is easing. Maybe a better earnings season can change that, but right now you don’t need a lot for markets to get nervous.”

Late yesterday afternoon, the four Fed chairs sat down, in a session in which the Fed’s mission to be ” central planner of the world” was greenlight, after Alan Greenspan said global developments must inevitably be taken into account by U.S. policy makers, which Yellen, who was also on the panel, said she and her colleagues carefully consider the impact of their actions on the rest of the world.

In any case, for now it seems that futures and stocks will close off the week on a positive note and green for the year.

Market Wrap

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.6% to 2048
  • Stoxx Europe 600 up 0.5% to 329.77
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.2% to 126.15
  • US 10Yr yield up 2 bps to 1.71%
  • Dollar index little changed at 94.48
  • WTI oil futures up 3.4% to $38.51/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1235.19/oz

Global News

  • Verizon Is Said to Plan Bid for Yahoo as Google Weighs Own Offer; Yahoo Said to Extend Bid Deadline by a Week to April 18: Re/Code
  • Gap Tumbles After Its March Sales Miss Already-Low Expectations
  • Uniqlo Parent Fast Retailing Plunges After Profit Outlook Cut to 5-Year Low
  • Oil Set for Weekly Gain as U.S. Output Falls Before Freeze Talks
  • ‘Batman v Superman’ Seen Earning Less Profit Than Superman Alone
  • Alibaba Affiliate Said to Lift Target in Record Tech Funding
  • Bill Ackman Says Valeant Not Selling Bausch & Lomb Unit: CNBC
  • Jessica Alba’s Honest Co. Said to Consider Sale: WWD

Looking at regional markets, we start in Asia where equities traded lower mostly across the board following similar weakness on Wall St. where a decline in energy and losses in financials dampened sentiment. Nikkei 225 (+0.5%) initially underperformed on the significant JPY strength allied with index giant Fast Retailing declining to its lowest level since 2013 after poor earnings and cutting its guidance. However, Japanese stocks then recovered in late trade amid short-covering alongside a rebound in USD/JPY. Elsewhere, mainland China conformed to the dismal tone with the Shanghai Comp (-0.8%) weighed following a lacklustre PBoC liquidity injection of CNY 20bIn for a total net weekly drain of CNY 275b1n. 10yr JGBs traded higher following the risk-averse tone in Asia and managed to retain gains despite improving risk appetite in Japan, while the BoJ were also in the market to acquire JPY 470b1n in government debt.

European equities have pared some of yesterday’s losses as risk-on sentiment returns to the fray following the gains in energy prices as WTI crude futures surges above USD 38/bbl. Allied with this, gains in financials has also attributed to the upbeat tone, with Italian banks leading the charge. Subsequently, notable outperformance has been observed in the FTSE MIB after source reports noting that a solution to the systemic weakness in Italian banks could be hatched as soon as Monday. As a result of the gains across EU bourses, Bunds have grinded lower throughout much of the morning, while peripheral bonds gain on the back of the aforementioned optimism surrounding plans to resolve NPLs in the Italian banking sector.

In FX, the yen weakened 0.5 percent to 108.78 per dollar after surging to 107.67 last session, its strongest level since October 2014. Despite Friday’s pullback, the currency is still up more than 2.5 percent this week as the Fed’s dovish approach to U.S. interest-rate policy weighs on the greenback and traders speculate that Japanese officials are reluctant to intervene in the market. Early London trade has seen a follow-up of the JPY retracement, where we have managed to extend the USD/JPY move through 109.00 temporarily. Ultimately, Japanese officials will be happy to see the 110.00 handle again, but near term, any major moves here are likely to be capped ahead of this. Even so, much of the JPY buying has been spec based, so pre-weekend trade is likely to include a heavy bout of position squaring.

Finance Minister Taro Aso said Friday in Tokyo that rapid yen movements — whether strengthening or weakening — are undesirable, especially if they’re abrupt. Recent movements have been one-sided and the government will act appropriately if necessary, he said.

The major data release however, came out of the UK.The major data release however, came out of the UK. Trade and manufacturing stats for Feb were both notably weak, but after a brief downturn, both Cable and EUR/GBP have calmed significantly. Ahead of this, early Cable sales were turned back aggressively, pushing up to 1.4140 before topping out.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major peers, was little changed. The Aussie gained 0.4 percent to 75.36 U.S. cents, while the rand strengthened 0.6 percent.

A JPMorgan Chase & Co. index measuring price swings in Group-of-Seven currencies rose for the five days through Thursday to just below its highest level since December 2011. It climbed above a gauge for emerging-market currencies for the first time since August.

In commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures trade higher today after extending gains through USD 38.00/bbl and USD 40.00/bbl respectively in a move driven by the broader risk-on sentiment seen throughout the market place today. In terms of energy specific newsflow, things are relatively light on this front with Doha-centric headlines largely a reiteration of previous rhetoric.

West Texas Intermediate crude rallied 3.6 percent to $38.60 a barrel. Futures are on track for a 4.9 percent weekly advance. Brent was up 3.1 percent to $40.66 a barrel on Friday.

Speculation has returned that Russia and OPEC members can reach a deal on freezing oil output when they meet in Doha on April 17. Saudi Arabia has said it will only agree if it’s joined by other suppliers including Iran, while Kuwait said a deal can be done without Iran’s support. An unexpected drop in U.S. crude inventories in data out this week also helped crude’s recovery.

Copper for three-month delivery added 0.5 percent, with aluminum, nickel and tin also climbing. Copper slumped the most in six months on Thursday, wiping out its gains for 2016, as miners and investors gathering at an industry conference in Chile expressed concern over demand for the metal. Nickel rallied after sliding 2.3 percent Thursday. Gold (-0.17%) trades relatively flat with prices just off yesterday’s high as the USD recovered from its worst levels, with the precious metal still on course for its largest weekly gain in over a month. Elsewhere, copper and iron saw dampened demand following a risk-averse tone across Asia with the latter on course for a 3rd consecutive weekly decline.

It’s another reasonably quiet day over in the US with just the February wholesale inventories and trade sales report. Away from the data we’ll hear from the Fed’s Dudley this afternoon when he is due to give a speech on the US economy. German Chancellor Merkel is also due to address a regional convention of her CDU party this afternoon which may be worth keeping an eye on.

 

Bulletin Headline Summary from Bloomberg and RanSquawk

  • European equities have pared some of yesterday’s losses as risk-on sentiment returns to the fray following the gains in energy prices as WTI crude futures surges above USD 38/bbl.
  • Early London trade has seen a follow-up of the JPY retracement, where we have managed to extend the USD/JPY move through 109.00 temporarily
  • Looking ahead, today sees the release of US Wholesale inventories, Canadian Jobs report as well as comments from Fed’s Dudley (Soft Dove, Voter) and ECB’s Nowotny (Neutral)
  • Treasuries lower in overnight trading as global equity markets rally and WTI crude oil rebounds back above $38 a barrel; gold moved lower as safe haven demand eased.
  • Fed chair Yellen stated last night during a panel with three of her predecessors that U.S. economy is “coming close” to full employment but that some slack remains
  • More than $10 billion of high-yield debt is on track to be sold this week in the U.S., which would make for the busiest five consecutive days since November. In Europe, fund managers are increasingly willing to buy speculative-grade securities
  • Iran ratcheted up its offense in the oil market after breaking a pricing tradition, signaling it’s seeking to win market share at a time when rival producers are trying to forge a deal on freezing output
  • The yen advanced to 107.67 on Thursday, the strongest since before the central bank expanded monetary stimulus in October 2014. Some strategists say 105 is the level where Japanese policy makers would consider stepping in to sell
  • China plans to ease risk management curbs on brokerages to release funds to develop capital-intensive businesses such as securities lending and margin financing that helped fuel a stock market bubble last year
  • Italian government officials and bank executives are stepping up efforts to reach an agreement over a planned fund that may be state backed to help the cooperative lenders lure private investors in share sales
  • U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron was accused of “hypocrisy” after he said he held a stake in an offshore fund set up by his late father until six years ago, an admission broadcast on national television following four days of questions over the investment
  • Sovereign 10Y bond yields mixed; European, Asian equity markets rise; U.S. equity-index futures rise. WTI crude oil higher, copper and gold drop

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Fed’s Dudley speaks in Bridgeport, CT
  • 10:00am: Wholesale Inventories, Feb., est. -0.2% (prior 0.3%, revised 0.2%)
  • Wholesale Sales, Feb., est. 0.2% (prior -1.3%)
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the morning, and weekly, wrap.

Earlier in the week we highlighted that those assets that should in theory have been the main beneficiaries of the ECB’s move 4 weeks ago are actually some of the worst performing global assets over the period. Well yesterday it was the same suspects which sold off sharply. European Banks closed -2.22% lower and in turn took the four-day loss this week to close to -6%. The Italian FTSE MIB finished -2.45% (and is down 5% this week so far) while the Spanish IBEX sold off -1.26% (down close to 4% on the week). It wasn’t much better in credit land with some sharp moves wider for CDS indices. The iTraxx Main and Crossover indices were 5bps and 18bps wider respectively, but again it was financials which caught the eye with the senior and sub fins indices 5bps and 20bps wider. It wasn’t much better across the pond where the S&P 500 eventually finished up with a -1.20% loss meaning the index has moved either up or down by at least 1% in the last three sessions.

A poor day for sentiment was also underscored by what appears to be an unrelenting rally for the Yen which is showing little sign of abating. Yesterday saw the currency break under 108 early in the morning, touching an intraday low of 107.67 before eventually hovering back around 108.5 (still +1.44% stronger on the day yesterday) which is roughly where it is this morning. Putting the recent moves in perspective, the Yen has now appreciated every day this month and is close to 4% stronger in that time. If we go back to the moments since the BoJ cut rates into negative territory in January, the Yen is nearly 11% stronger in that time. All of this is fuelling talk potential currency intervention from the BoJ and as a minimum we’re setting up for an interesting meeting on April 28th.

Glancing at our screens this morning, most Asian bourses look like they’re closing out the week in the red. Markets in China are again leading the moves lower with the Shanghai Comp currently -0.90% and CSI 300 -0.79%. The Hang Seng is -0.70% while the ASX and Kospi are -0.45% and -0.33% respectively. Only the Nikkei (+0.54%) is up having recovered off an early drop lower. Credit indices are a couple of basis points wider.

Meanwhile, late last night saw Fed Chair Yellen take part in a discussion with former Fed Chairs Bernanke, Greenspan and Volcker. Yellen in particular made mention to the fact that she believes that the US economy has continued to progress in a satisfactory way’, while also noting that she believes that the Fed is ‘coming close to our assigned congressional goal of maximum employment’. For the most part there was much agreement between the speakers, playing down concerns of financial bubbles and agreeing that fiscal policymakers should look to support the Fed’s economic stimulus.

Moving on. Away from the obvious focus on the price action yesterday, some attention was also paid to the release of the ECB minutes from that meeting four weeks ago. While the text revealed that there was some disagreement around some of the finer details of the announced package, it was noted that some officials were seemingly in favour of considering an even deeper rate cut last month. It was also revealed that incentives for banks that expand lending received ‘very broad support’ but that the expansion to including corporate bonds purchases received just ‘broad support’. Meanwhile in the ECB’s annual bank report yesterday, ECB President Draghi was quoted as saying that ‘we face continued disinflationary forces’ and ‘that we face questions about the direction of Europe and its resilience to new shocks’. However the President confirmed that in light of this ‘our commitment to our mandate will continue to be an anchor of confidence for the people of Europe’ and in a separate speech later on in the day noted that the Bank will do ‘whatever is needed’ to lift inflation.
In fact it was a somewhat busy day for ECB chatter yesterday. Peter Praet made explicit reference to the fact that helicopter money is not being discussed ‘even informally’ by the ECB, which was a view also shared by Constancio and Visco too, although the latter also noted that no policy tool within the ECB’s mandate can or should be dismissed, while Praet highlighted that the ECB stands ready to ‘recalibrate’ its stimulus if need.

Unsurprising in the context of the risk-off move which enveloped markets yesterday, it was core government bond markets which came off the big winners. 10y Treasury yields finished the session nearly 7bps lower at 1.690% which is the lowest now since February 11th. Closer to home Bunds in particular extended their move lower after finishing down 3bps at a lowly 0.088%. That curve is in fact now back to being in negative territory up to 9 years in maturity. Those moves are in stark contrast to what we’ve been seeing in the periphery however. Spanish 10y bonds closed 9bps higher in yield yesterday at 1.601%. The losing streak there has now extended to six days which is the longest run since July 2012. The bigger move was seen in Portugal where similar maturity bonds were a sharp 23bps wider to 3.407% (they did go as high as 4% in February). The uncertain political situation there is still making investors nervous, likewise there are still lingering concerns around the domestic banking sector which remains fragile in light of the Novo Banco issue a few months ago.

In commodity land Gold (+1.47%) had a good session, while Oil markets took a rare back seat in the context of the rest of the moves, with WTI hovering around the $37/bbl mark. Speaking of Oil, yesterday our commodities team published a report highlighting that scepticism is the most rational response to the producer negotiations in the lead up to the Doha talks in nine days time. They note that while market expectations of a ‘freeze ex-Iran ex-Libya’ have risen, such an agreement would actually do little to change the supply outlook. Without the participation of Iran and Libya, production could extend its 1.6 mmb/d increase since the historic ‘quota hold’ in November 2014. The Kuwaiti suggestion that production could be held at a Jan-Fed average level does not help very much since February OPEC production was down only 90 kb/d from January, a seven-year high.

A quick wrap up of yesterday’s data which on the whole didn’t have much of an impact on markets. In the US we saw initial jobless claims back down to 267k last week and a touch lower than expected. That means that claims have now stood below 300k for 57 consecutive weeks. Meanwhile, consumer credit in February was said to have risen $17.2bn (vs. $14.9bn) with gains for both revolving and non-revolving credit. Away from this we heard from the San Francisco Fed President Williams who confirmed that he views two rates rises from the Fed this year as the ‘right course’.

It’s another reasonably quiet day over in the US this afternoon with just the February wholesale inventories and trade sales report. Away from the data we’ll hear from the Fed’s Dudley (at 1.30pm BST) this afternoon when he is due to give a speech on the US economy. German Chancellor Merkel is also due to address a regional convention of her CDU party this afternoon which may be worth keeping an eye on.


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Targeting Short-Term Rentals in Anaheim: New At Reason

Politicians in Anaheim, California, who once targeted long-term residents in motels, are now targeting short-term rentals.

Steven Greenhut writes:

Anaheim has more than 200 permitted short-term rentals and many more that operate in the shadows. To deal with complaints, the City Council last year approved a moratorium on new permits. City staff created a 12-page memorandum offering suggestions. Mayor Tom Tait—a self-described fan of the sharing economy and someone with real property-rights credentials—has nevertheless proposed a ban on this type of operation.

It’s pretty extreme. He would allow people to rent out rooms in their homes, provided it is their primary residence. They could operate, say, a bed-and-breakfast—or rent out the house while they take an extended vacation. But he would put the kibosh on rental houses that cater to vacationers. He would provide an 18-month period for existing short-term rentals to phase out.

View this article.

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Jumping Ahead Of Evidence, Prohibitionists Claim Legalizing Pot Boosts Underage Consumption

Pot prohibitionists claim that marijuana legalization in Colorado caused an increase in cannabis consumption by teenagers in that state. But as I explain in my latest Forbes column, the numbers so far do not support that claim:

This week Chuck Grassley and Dianne Feinstein, the two oldest members of the U.S. Senate and two of its most enthusiastic drug warriors, held a hearing on the Justice Department’s response to marijuana legalization in Colorado and Washington. “When comparing the two-year average before and after legalization,” Feinstein, a California Democrat, said in her opening statement, “current marijuana use among 12-to-17-year-olds increased by 20 percent…while the national average decreased by 4 percent. In my book, that’s a very big statistic, and [it] tells you a lot.”

That comparison, which comes from a report that the Rocky Mountain High Intensity Drug Trafficking Area (RMHIDTA) issued in January, is popular among opponents of legalization. But it does not tell us nearly as much as Feinstein thinks.

Read the whole thing.

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Warren Buffett’s Father, Gold, and Liberty

 

 


Warren Buffett’s Father, Gold, and Liberty

Written by Jeff Nielson (CLICK FOR ORIGINAL)

 

 

Warren Buffett’s Father, Gold, and Liberty - Jeff Nielson

 

 

 

Is there a connection between Human Freedom and a Gold Redeemable Money? At first glance it would seem that money belongs to the world of economics and human freedom to the political sphere.

But when you recall that one of the first moves by Lenin, Mussolini and Hitler was to outlaw individual ownership of gold, you begin to sense that there may be some connection between money, redeemable in gold, and the rare prize known as human liberty [emphasis mine]

– Rep. Howard Buffett, 1948

So said the Honourable Howard Buffett (1903–1964), the father of none other than the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett. Were these just the flowery words of a politician, geared at nothing more than garnering votes?

No. These were the thoughts of a statesman, whose concern was only for his own constituents, explained in a well-reasoned essay . Buffett begins his argument:

In a free country the monetary unit rests upon a fixed foundation of gold or gold and silver independent of the ruling politicians. Our dollar was that kind of money before 1933. Under that system paper currency is redeemable for a certain weight of gold, at the free option and choice of the holder of the paper money.

That redemption right gives money a large degree of stability. The owner of such gold redeemable currency has economic independence. He can move around either within or without his country because his money holdings have accepted value anywhere.

Economic liberty sounds nice, but is it really useful or necessary? As our leaders continually tell us, ourliberties get in the way of their “War on Terror,” which is why they have already found it necessary toeliminate many of those liberties. Buffett continues:

The subject of a Hitler or a Stalin is a serf by the mere fact that his money can be called in and depreciated at the whim of his rulers.

Here, we require greater elaboration, as many readers may not see the connection between the ability of rulers to depreciate currencies at their whim, and the transformation of citizens into serfs. A familiar quote from a more famous monetary authority sheds some light:

In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation.

– Alan Greenspan , 1966

When you depreciate a currency, you create inflation. They are two sides of the same coin. Devalue a currency by 10%, and prices increase by a commensurate amount. It’s what charlatan economists call “inflation.” Give a Hitler or a Stalin (or a Greenspan or a Bernanke) the unlimited capacity to devalue currencies and create inflation by printing paper currency, and you give these Tyrants the unlimited capacity to steal wealth – our wealth.

Howard Buffet warns that citizens can be reduced to serfs (via penury), through the mere whim of our corrupt leaders choosing to devalue our paper currencies. Sir Alan Greenspan, a central banker knighted for his purported sagacity, warns us that without a gold standard there is nothing to prevent corrupt governments and corrupt central bankers (like himself) from confiscating (stealing) our wealth, by deliberately manufacturing inflation by devaluing our currencies.

What do we see around us today? “Competitive devaluation” is the official policy of all the regimes of the Corrupt West. Traitorous rulers race to see who can devalue their currency the fastest, and thus steal the wealth of their citizens the fastest.

Proving that this systemic theft of wealth is malicious, rather than the product of mere incompetence, all of these regimes lie about the actual rate of inflation . They grossly understate the actual rate of inflation, with statistics which have been “massaged” (i.e. perverted) beyond any resemblance to reality. Then the traitor politicians and their central bank masters continually whine that “inflation is too low,” meaning they want (and intend) to steal our wealth even faster.

Skeptical readers will rebel at such assertions, no matter how obvious the arithmetic, no matter the pedigree of the authorities who stand behind such math. Surely our “democratic” governments would and could never betray us in such an overt and malicious manner? Buffett disagrees:

Also, when you find that Lenin declared and demonstrated that a sure way to overturn the existing social order and bring about communism was by printing press paper money, then again you are impressed with the possibility of a relationship between a gold-backed money and human freedom.

The connection between a gold standard, and preventing (corrupt) governments from stealing the wealth of their citizens may still be unclear in the minds of many readers. In a White Paper on the gold standard , this connection was explained via a reference to history’s ultimate gold-hater (and inflation-creator) John Maynard Keynes.

It was Keynes who infamously referred to a gold standard as “the Golden Handcuffs.” So corrupt was his vision of economics that Keynes didn’t even comprehend that his attempt to smear the gold standard with this scornful nickname inadvertently illustrated its primary virtues.

How and why is a gold standard a set of Golden Handcuffs? Even Keynes can explain that, because it exposes the two greatest horrors in the mind of this charlatan. A gold standard dramatically limits the ability of governments to take on new debt, and equally limits the capacity of central bankers to print more currency (and thus devalue that currency).

With a gold standard, governments must run a balance of payments. Enslaving us in debt, as the traitor politicians have done, would never have been possible. Devaluing our currencies, manufacturing inflation, and systemically stealing our wealth (as our thieving central banks have done) would never have been possible. Buffett is vehement here:

There is only one way that these spending pressures can be halted, and that is to restore the final decision on public spending to the producers of the nation. The producers of wealth – taxpayers – must regain their right to obtain gold in exchange for the fruits of their labor. This restoration would give the people the final say-so on governmental spending, and would enable wealth producers to control the issuance of paper money and bonds.

How does a gold standard put citizens back in charge of their own government? How does a gold standard put citizens back in charge of their own, national currencies? Via the right of redemption, to which Buffett refers at the beginning of his essay.

Here it is necessary for readers to grasp the mechanics of a hard gold standard, where every note issued must be backed by a specific amount of gold. When the citizens redeem their paper currency for gold, this extinguishes those paper instruments. The paper currency ceases to exist.

Taken to an extreme, if citizens completely lost confidence in their government and redeemed all of their currency, the government’s treasury would be emptied. The government could not embark on new, grandiose spending commitments (like waging another war), because it would have no funds to finance it.

Similarly, with our currencies backed by gold, and with a treasury emptied of its gold, the central banks are stripped of their own powers to steal. With no gold in the kitty, these paper-printers, inflation-creators, and wealth-stealers could do none of this. With a proper, gold-backed currency, there is no “inflation,” and thus the corrupt confiscation of wealth via central bank money-printing vanishes.

As a four-term U.S. congressman, Buffett explains how the Golden Handcuffs would affect the political mentality in Washington, or any of the capitals of the Corrupt West.

If Congress seemed receptive to reckless spending schemes [like funneling trillions of dollars into the vaults of too-big-to-fail banks] , depositors’ demands over the country for gold would become serious. That alarm would quickly be reflected in the halls of Congress. The legislators would learn from the banks back home and from the Treasury officials that confidence in the Treasury was endangered.

Congress would be forced to confront spending demands with firmness. The gold standard acted as a silent watchdog to prevent unlimited spending.

Golden Handcuffs. Silent Watchdog. These are two terms for the same thing. A hard, gold standard, and thus a gold-backed currency, is the only way to ensure our economic liberty – from the tyranny of our own governments, and the tyranny of unelected central bankers who preside above our governments .

Take away our gold standard, and there is nothing to protect us from these tyrants. Thus predicted John Keynes. Thus predicted Howard Buffett. Thus predicted Alan Greenspan. And look around, in 2016!

Our nations have been bankrupted. Our currencies have been debauched to near worthlessness. Many of our citizens have been turned into economic serfs .

When you pay three times as much for a pound of hamburger as you paid a mere ten years earlier, you’re purchasing the same pound of meat – it’s just your currency which has lost two-thirds of its value. Two-thirds of the wealth you used to have stored in that paper has been stolen.

It seems that, after all, “economic liberty” is something without which we cannot live. The arithmetic is simple. The arguments are irrefutable. The evidence of the economic carnage which we have suffered since being robbed of our gold standard is beyond overwhelming.

Certainly the son of Howard Buffett must be an unabashed admirer of gold, and the liberty it represents like his father was? Surely the Oracle of Omaha is a fan of human liberty? Apparently not. Like father, not like son.

Why Warren Buffett Hates Gold

Why does Warren Buffett hate liberty, or at least liberty for the Little People? Because our liberty gets in hisway. Buffett is quoted directly :

[It] gets dug out of the ground in Africa or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility.

“No utility”? Howard Buffett would disagree. But the writer of the article elaborates on the younger Buffett’s thinking:

…that’s not the worst part of gold in Buffett’s view. His biggest issue is the fact that gold is just so worthless. Not in the value someone is willing to pay for an ounce of it, but in its ability to create wealth.

It is here that we learn everything we need to know about the mind-set of wealthy oligarchs like Warren Buffett, and everything we need to know about how they “create wealth.”

When our wealth is stolen (by the trillions of dollars), via the money-printing of which we were warned by Keynes, Howard Buffett, and Greenspan, where does all this stolen wealth go? It disappears into the vaults of the wealthy oligarchs who control those printing presses, along with their friends (like the Oracle of Omaha).

Give me control of a nation’s money, and I care not who makes its laws.

– Mayer Amschel Rothschild

How do the ultra-wealthy become ultra-wealthy? They do it the old-fashioned way: they steal their fortunes from the people. Gold (and a gold standard) protects the wealth of the people from having that wealth stolen. It stops those oligarchs from “creating wealth” (i.e. stealing ours).

Warren Buffett hates gold. Warren Buffett loves banks and central bankers. You do the math.

 

 

Please email with any questions about this article or precious metals HERE

 

 

 

 

Warren Buffett’s Father, Gold, and Liberty

Written by Jeff Nielson (CLICK FOR ORIGINAL)

 

 

 

 

 

 


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Brickbat: Dog Gone

hot dogsWalnetta Reid and Tristan Ellis insisted they did not eat two hot dogs at an Iberia, Louisiana, convenience store without paying. They asked the officer who had been called about the incident to look at the security video, claiming it would show they were innocent. Instead, he released the women with a summons. They drove 400 miles from their homes in Texas for their court date, certain that someone would finally look at the video and throw out the charge. Instead, they found they were only there for a plea hearing. They pleaded not guilty, but when they could not pay $1,740 each for bond, the judge tossed them in jail, where they remained for five days until a local attorney heard about the case and put up the bond.

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New York Values, Sexting Panics, and Gender-Neutral Cats: Watch Matt Welch on Red Eye

In fairness, the system is terrible. ||| CNNTonight’s Red Eye w/ Tom Shillue (Fox News 3 a.m.) moves the Election 2016 discussion to the crucial battleground state of, uh, New York, which is sure to spend the next two weeks reminding the rest of Americans why they don’t live there. I will be discussing everything from Hillary Clinton’s subway troubles to John Kasich’s disgusting eating habits with co-panelists Rich Lowry of National Review and comedian Nick Mullen. We will also talk about sexting, Star Wars, and gender-neutral cats.

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