Ebola Threatens Us Because of NIH Budget Cuts! And Here’s Our Latest $31 Million NIH Grant for Diversity

The National Institutes of Health (NIH) leader Francis Collins

has claimed that budget cuts
kept his organization from having
already developed an Ebola vaccine.

Today, the NIH proudly
announces
:

the award of nearly $31 million in fiscal year 2014 funds to
develop new approaches that engage researchers, including those
from backgrounds underrepresented in biomedical sciences, and
prepare them to thrive in the NIH-funded workforce. These awards
are part of a projected five-year program to support more than 50
awardees and partnering institutions in establishing a national
consortium to develop, implement, and evaluate approaches to
encourage individuals to start and stay in biomedical research
careers. Supported by the NIH Common Fund and all NIH 27 institutes
and centers, 12 awards will be issued as part of three initiatives
of the Enhancing the Diversity
of the NIH-Funded Workforce program
.

There’s nowhere to cut, and every dollar we don’t give the
government is some vital-to-civilization goal unmet.

Nick Gillespie
blogged on the nonsense
of claiming budgetary restraint hobbled
the government’s ability to respond intelligently and effectively
to Ebola.

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The Last Days Of The Growth Story

Submitted by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,


Dorothea Lange Rear window tenement dwelling, 133 Avenue D, NYC June 1936

I am thinking about the similarities between a financial crisis and for instance a family crisis, the death of a loved one or close friend, a divorce, or a personal bankruptcy.

And I wonder why in the case of our recent (aka current) financial crisis, we allow nothing to enter our communications, and our train of thought, but the idea of recovery and a return to growth. Has everyone always reacted that way after earlier financial crises – history is full of them -, or is something else going on?

Why do we insist on returning to something we once had, even if we have no way of knowing whether we can ever return? Why don’t we focus – more – on what lies ahead, instead of what is behind us? Is it because we loved what we had so much? Or is something else going on?

Even if we do love what once was so much, there’s a time to move on after every disaster, every death in the family, every bankruptcy. And deep down we know that very well. Life will never be the same, but it’ll still be life. It seems safe to say that in general, life is about turning, not returning. Life changes, we change, every day, every minute, every millisecond.

This refusal to turn a new leaf and find out what’s on the other side of the hill has enormous consequences. We are actively digging ourselves so deep into debt that it’s preposterous to claim this debt is ours only, because it’s painfully clear, though we would never admit it (too painful perhaps?), that we can never pay it back. We leave that honor to our children, and to the generations after them.

We should undoubtedly have protected us from ourselves, by making it illegal and punishable by law to engage in such behavior (something along the lines of Child Protection Services). We chose instead to be blind to it. We still could – should – write such legislation, but it looks as if present politics and economic ‘thinking’ will only exacerbate a situation that is already far worse than we care to know.

The overruling ‘wisdom’ looks to be that we miraculously freed ourselves from the yoke of a balanced budget, an idea seemingly justified by the fact that a return to growth has been elevated to the status of a law, of either physics or a deity of our choice, growth that will subsequently make all debts melt like the snow on the Kilimanjaro.

That overruling wisdom, as should be obvious, is at best wishful thinking, but far more likely pure fantasy. Which has become our main, make that only, approach of the crisis we find ourselves in. If only we believe, our leaders will deliver us to growth heaven.

But what if this is the end of the growth story? What if it’s already behind us? It’s not as if growth has been a constant factor in the lives of our ancestors. And it’s not as if the laws of physics put no limits on everlasting growth. Growth is a passing thing, it’s a phase.

Most of us have heard of the seven stages of grief. Shock, Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Guilt, Depression, Acceptance. Where are we in our journey through these stages when it come to the financial crisis, and to growth? There’s only one stage that even remotely sounds right: Denial. We’re not even close to Anger yet, not when it comes to the larger population.

We simply deny that something has really changed. And even if you wish to claim that it hasn’t, no-one can deny the possibility that it has. Still, that is exactly what happens. Denial, everywhere you look.

The something else that is going on is that our brains have been kidnapped by those who (probably not even always consciously) seek to strengthen their – power – political and financial positions by making us believe in the growth story long after it has – for all we can see – died. That’s why we listen only to the growth story, to the exclusion of any and all other stories.

It’s a form of progress, though not a benign one. Freud’s ideas are (ab)used to hide reality from us (to ‘sell’ the message), while Keynes’ ideas are abused to hide the reality that you can’t buy growth with debt your children will have to pay back. Pretty simple, when you think about it.

If you know how to sell people detergents and presidents, abstract ideas is easy. And if those ideas are about economics, that nobody knows much about and all the trusted experts and press have the same message about 24/7, the circle is pretty much closed. All that’s left then is places like the Automatic Earth and others to get your alternative stories, but that’s no match for full blown propaganda.

Still we’re seeing, we’re living in, the last days of the growth story. And when the master class decides to drop that story, watch out. The emperor is one ugly wrinkled old duckling when he’s naked. You don’t want your kids to see that.




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Jesse Walker on Ebola and the Media

Can I just point out that the question mark should be outside the quotation marks? Thanks.Since the Ebola outbreak began,
the press has wavered uneasily between intimations of doom and
assurances that everything is under control. Jesse Walker explores
the duelling fears—of a public health crisis and of mass panic—that
explain the media’s mixed messages.

View this article.

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Shootings in Ottawa Kill Soldier, Michael Brown Autopsy Leaked, Blackwater Guards Convicted: P.M. Links

  • The scene in OttawaDetails are still vague about

    deadly shooting incidents
    in the downtown area of Ottawa today.
    Police say there were two shooting incidents at Parliament Hill and
    the National War Memorial. Reports of a third shooting incident
    proved to be untrue. A Canadian soldier was killed in one of the
    shootings, as was a male suspect.
  • According to the leaked official autopsy report, Michael Brown
    of Ferguson, Missouri, was
    shot at close range in the hand
    . Some experts who looked at the
    report say it reinforces the possibility that Brown was in a
    struggle with Officer Darren Wilson inside the police SUV. He also
    had marijuana in his system, which means nothing, of course.
  • A jury has
    convicted four former Blackwater guards
    hired to protect
    diplomats in Iraq in 2007 of dozens of charges related to the
    killing of 14 Iraqis and the injuring of 17 others. One was found
    guilty of first-degree murder.
  • Django Unchained actor
    Daniele Watts has been charged with lewd conduct
    for allegedly
    having sex with her boyfriend in a parked car in a case that drew
    wide national attention and accusations of racism against the Los
    Angeles Police Department. She has responded that the two of them
    were just making out.
  • Freed North Korean detainee Jeffrey Fowle has returned
    home
    to United States soil. Two other American citizens remain
    in detention.
  • A probe at the University of North Carolina shows that some
    college officials for decades directed thousands of students, many
    of them athletes, to
    fake classes
    to get their grades up.
  • The case about the Idaho
    wedding chapel
    fighting an alleged push by the city to make it
    marry gay couples may be complicated by some facts that don’t quite
    add up.

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and Twitter,
and don’t forget to
sign
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 for Reason’s daily updates for more
content.

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Insanity Defined: Feds Unveil Plan to Help High-Risk Homebuyers Take On Massive Debt. Again.

A foreclosure sign hangs in front of a house.“Low
Down Payments Are Coming Back,” screams a headline from The
Wall Street Journal
 today. The story
details two steps
federal regulators apparently have in the
works:

On Monday, Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Mel Watt
announced that mortgage-finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie
Mac would start backing loans with down payments as low as 3%.

And on Tuesday, three federal agencies approved a loosened set
of mortgage-lending rules, removing a requirement for a 20% down
payment for a class of high-quality loan known as a “qualified
residential mortgage.”

Loans with little to no down payment were a common feature of
the lax lending practices that were prevalent during the housing
market’s bubble years.

Of course, those bubble years eventually came to an end, causing
an economic meltdown of jawdropping magnitude. Presidents George W.
Bush and Barack Obama responded by running up the
national debt
from $10 trillion before the recession to more
than $17.5 trillion today. And “experts” everywhere laid the blame
at Wall Street’s feet, lambasting the banks for making reckless
loans they should have known were destined to go bad.

Now, in the wake of that historic
lending-bonanza-turned-financial-crisis, federal regulators are
concerned—but not that we might still be incentivizing people to
take on more debt than they can realistically service. No, federal
regulators’ concern is that the banking system isn’t making it easy
enough for people to take out expensive mortgages.

Luckily, they have a plan to help thousands of additional
high-risk borrowers purchase homes they can’t afford. Sound
familiar?

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Stocks Drop On Oil Dump & ECB Reality-Check

While some pointed north to the aweful events in Ottowa, it appears the bigger driver of weakness in stocks today (aside from a sudden absence of broken VIX markets, a lack of Fed Speakers, and the truth about ECB bond-buying being exposed) was the plunge in crude oil. WTI tumbled from over $83 to a low $80 handle after inventories surged more than expected and that appeared the catalyst for equities to catch down to credit weakness. Treasury yields closed the day unchanged but sold off notably in the EU session (like yesterday). The USDollar strengthened for the 2nd day in a row (now up 0.55% on the week) on EUR weakness (CAD volatile around shootings), weighing on commodities. Silver was monkey-hammered early, copper and gold slid, then oil plunged (down 2% on the week). Yesterday's big winner Trannies tumbled the most today (-2%) as stocks gave up half the week's gains today.

 

Stocks broadly gave back half the week's gains today…

 

With Trannies tumbling the most on the day…

 

The turn in oil coincided with weakness in Stocks today…

 

As Oil and stocks decouple…

 

The drop in stocks caught then down to credit's early weakness…

 

The Dollar rallied once again – led by EUR weakness. CAD was very volatile around macro data and the shootings

 

and USD strength weighed on all commodities…

 

2nd day in a row, Treasuries sold off during the EU session… but closed unchanged on the day.

 

Charts: Bloomberg




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Saudi Cleric Blasts Twitter As “Source Of All Evil” As Riyal Slides To Lowest Since 2008

The last 2 days have seen enormous volatility in the Saudi Riyal exchange rate, purportedly oil-related FX hedging programs as the SAR dropped to its lowest sicne Dec 2008, but the most extreme ‘moves’ were left to The Kingdon’s top Muslim cleric. As The BBC reports, Sheikh Abdul Aziz al-Sheikh, the Grand Mufti of Saudi Arabia, exclaimed that Twitter is “the source of all evil and devastation”. As the 12th most influential Muslim in the world, it perhaps matters that he says users were using Twitter to “promote lies, backbite and gossip and to slander Islam,” but citizens of Saudi Arabia, who are some of the heaviest users of Twitter, did not appreciate his remarks, summe dup by one tweet, “People need an outlet to express themselves, to start to disclose what’s hidden and drop the masks, without fear or commands, or censorship from anyone.”

 

Handsome chap…

 

As The BBC reports,

according to Saudi Arabia’s top Muslim cleric, Twitter is “the source of all evil and devastation”.

 

Sheikh Abdul Aziz al-Sheikh, the Grand Mufti of Saudi Arabia, made the comments on his Fatwa television show earlier this week.

 

“If it were used correctly, it could be of real benefit, but unfortunately it’s exploited for trivial matters,” he said about the social networking site.

 

“People are rushing to it thinking, ‘It’s a source of credible information’ but it’s a source of lies and falsehood.”

 

As the highest religious authority in the country, Sheikh Abdul Aziz al-Sheikh holds a senior government position, advising on the law and social affairs.

 

He was also voted the 12th most influential Muslim in the world in a recent poll.

 

According to Gulf News, he said: “These are not the high morals that Muslims should have and I call upon all people to contemplate seriously what they write before they post their tweets.”

However, citizens of Saudi Arabia, who are some of the heaviest users of Twitter, did not appreciate his remarks.

One of the reasons Saudis say they like using Twitter is because it allows them to discuss what they really feel.

 

The hashtag #WhydidTwittersucceedinSaudiArabia began trending in January, with users sharing their reasons they liked the site.

 

One user tweeted: “People need an outlet to express themselves, to start to disclose what’s hidden and drop the masks, without fear or commands, or censorship from anyone.”

 

Another posted: “The reason is that none of the newspapers are concerned with your worries nor do any officials care about you.”

As the Riyal slides notably away from  its peg to the USD – to the weakest since Dec 2008…

 

Though we are sure Twitter had nothing to do with that.

As Bloomberg notes,

the biggest jump in long-dated USD/SAR forwards in more than three years was partly driven by increased FX hedging trades after oil prices fell, two FX and rates traders in London said.

 

Given Saudi Arabia’s large FX reserves, traders see no fundamental justification for these moves, and instead are seizing the opportunity to sell the forwards at elevated levels.

*  *  *




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What Happens When Cash Is No Longer Trash?

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

Those who actually create value as opposed to chasing yield with nearly-free money will actually have some traction once the swamp of excess liquidity drains.

When those closest to the money spigots of the Federal Reserve can borrow billions for next to nothing, cash–laboriously saved from years of paychecks–is reduced to trash. What chance does a saver have in a bidding war for a house or other asset against a financier who can borrow essentially unlimited cash?
 

Answer: none. The saver can leverage his cash at best 4-to-1: a 20% down payment leverages a mortgage of 80% borrowed money. The financier can borrow as much he wants for next to nothing.

The saver will lose every bidding war, thanks to the excess liquidity created by the Fed and other central banks. The reason given for this vast expansion of credit is that if credit is cheap enough, people and businesses will put that nearly-free money to work.
 
The problem with cheap credit is that it does not flow to productive investments–it flows to safe yields. Launching a new product or service is risky, especially in a stagnant economy, so the safe way to play unlimited credit (i.e. liquidity) is to chase assets that reliably generate returns.
 
Consider housing as an example. If a saver wants to buy a house to rent out as an investment, he is going to be paying 4.5% or so for the 80% of the money he is borrowing via a mortgage.
 
The rental income has to exceed his costs–the mortgage, property taxes, maintenance, etc.–by at least 3%. Otherwise he might as well buy a long-term Treasury bond and earn the 3% without the risk of vacancies, unexpected expenses like a new roof, etc.
 
Since his mortgage costs 4.5%, the yield has to be considerably higher than 5% to make buying the house a good investment. Let's say the rental has to generate a return of 10% to yield a net return (after paying the mortgage, property taxes, etc.) of 3%.
 
The financier paying less than 1% for his borrowed money has an entirely different calculus. Since the cost of his borrowed money is so cheap, he can bid the asset price up and still earn a return above 3%. Raising the price of the house quickly raises the costs of owning for the saver, as the interest costs of the bigger mortgage eat away at the yield.
 
The financier can raise his bid by 25% and the additional interest on the nearly-free money is trivial.
 
The systemic result of excess liquidity (cheap credit) is bubbles in every asset class that yields a low-risk return. Buying low-yield assets is still profitable if you can borrow money for next to nothing.
 
Though the timing of the collapse of excess liquidity is unknown, we can safely predict excess liquidity will collapse because all extremes eventually revert to the mean. At some point assets reach such heights that even free money isn't earning a real (i.e. adjusted for inflation) return.
 
At that point, participants lose faith in the easy-money policies that have issued cheap credit as the cure-all for stagnation. The excess liquidity is still gushing out of central banks, but even financiers don't want any more as there's no way left to earn a return even with nearly-free money.
 
As correspondent Jay F. observed, the collapse of excess liquidity will be a positive development, as it will restore the equilibrium between cash that is saved and the real returns on assets.
"A worthy subject for your attention and treatment is how the collapse of credit liquidity is actually a very helpful thing for individuals who are real creators of real value– as they now get to compete on a much more level playing field. I see this phenomenon unfolding all around us as overvalued assets and professions go on the chopping block to maintain the status quo. It's actually a very good thing."
Well said, Jay. Those who actually create value as opposed to chasing yield with nearly-free money will actually have some traction once the swamp of excess liquidity drains.




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Report: Advisors, Profs Created 18 Years of Academic Fraud at UNC

UNCFor 18 years, academic advisors at the University
of North Carolina at Chapel Hill pushed athletes to enroll in
“shadow courses” that never actually met and only required
participants to write an end-of-term paper—a paper that was never
graded or even read.

The latest report on the long-running con in UNC’s Department of
African and Afro-American Studies pins much of the blame on Deborah
Crowder, who managed the department until 2011. From the

News & Observer
:

“Between 1993 and 2011, Crowder and Nyang’oro developed and ran
a ‘shadow curriculum’ within the AFAM Department that provided
students with academically flawed instruction through the offering
of ‘paper classes,’” the report said. “These were classes that
involved no interaction with a faculty member, required no class
attendance or course work other than a single paper, and resulted
in consistently high grades that Crowder awarded without reading
the papers or otherwise evaluating their true quality.”

Two counselors even suggested to Crowder what grades to give to
the athletes.

The report did not find significant fault with university or
athletic leadership. UNC President Tom Ross and Chancellor Carol
Folt expressed “disappointment” that some people in the campus
community knew about the scope of the problem but did nothing about
it for years.

The fact that this deception involved so many students and
advisors over so many years is staggering. One wonders whether the
athletic-industrial complex was particularly bad at UNC, or whether
similar frauds are ongoing at other public institutions of higher
learning.

The college bubble better hurry up and pop, huh?

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If You Like Your Broken Markets… Treasury Futures Edition

“If you like your broken markets,” it would appear you can keep them… but this time in bond futures. June 2015 30Y Futures prices are surging today (up a stunningly fat-finger-esque 7.4% (or 10 points)). This, however, is being traded… there is volume being exchanged… and at 151-19/32, it implies 30Y Bond yields will be below 2.4% by the middle of next year (from 2.99% today).

30Y Futs (June 2015) are up over 10 points today…

 

which implies a collapse in 30Y yields to 2.4%…

 

A) Fat Finger? (doesn’t look like it)

B) Short-Squeeze?

C) Hedge at Any Cost…

D) Exchange Error




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