David Harsanyi: Make It More Difficult to Vote

Many Americans could care less about
contemporary political issues or the rudimentary workings of their
government. But they sure do love voting. And the biggest fans of
“democracy” treat this orgy of lever pulling as if it were sacred
or patriotic.

It is neither, argues David Harsanyi. And while voting
evangelists suggest that no one in the country should have to wait
longer than 30 minutes to cast a ballot, voting should entail more
exertion than ordering Chinese takeout, he writes. 

View this article.

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Low-Volume Melt-Up Fails To Stall Small Caps Worst Streak In Over 2 Years

Despite a low-volume melt-up in stocks off yesterday's European close lows, US equities closed lower on the week with small caps once again the laggards. Even as stocks closed red, the costs of protection in credit and equity markets tumbled as the last 2 days volumeless liftathon in stocks took place against the background of very modest Treasury selling – this has the stench of high-yield bond exposure being significantyly reduced (and synthetic hedges being lifted) – something we saw Wednesday into the close. The USDollar rose the most in 15 months today (up for the 12th week in a row – longest streak since Bretton Woods) led by Cable and EUR weakness. Jobs data losses in bonds today were largely reversed with TSY yields ending the week dopwn 7-9bps. Commodities were ugly with silver and oil (under $90) joined at the hip and gold closing below $1200 for first time this year. The Russell 2000 closed lower for the 5th week in a row, the worst streak since Aug 2011.

 

Spot The Ramp Day (by looking only at the lower pane's relative volume chart)

 

Trannies scarmbled back to green on the week but the rest closed red with Russell lagging… Dow's first 200pt gain since March 4th…

 

Despite an epic surge off yesterday's European close lows…

 

Just looking across the corporate bond-equity-vol complex, we see notable Treasury buying, and protection (HY and VIX) unwinds in the last 2 days which are exactly the paradoxical moves we would expect from a major liquidation of high-yield credit exposure in a fund… of course this is interpreted by the machines as bullish (VIX/HY) and stock indices are lifted (on no 'real' volume) but in fact it is anything but as the reality of the cash market unwinds spreads to the primary issuance and finally stock markets…

 

and close up today..

 

VIX definitely saw more selling (unwind hedge) exposure than mere stocks alone would have expected…

 

The USD index rose 1.25% today…led by EUR and GBP weakness

 

The most in 15 months..

 

Silver and Oil (back under $90) moved in lockstep once again with various flushes on the week but all commodities closed lower against the strong USD..

 

Gold closed below $1200 for the first time this year…

 

Treasury yields closed the week 7-9bps lower (reversing most of today's jobs reaction losses)

 

Charts:Bloomberg




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The Change In Cost Of Living Since 1938

The drip-drip-drip of Fed-induced inflation is hardly felt by most Americans even on an annual basis; but take a step back over a generation of currency debasement and it becomes clear. As the following image shows, the cost of living since 1938 has, simply put, exploded. With incomes up just 30x in those 76 years, the cost of a home has risen 70x, the cost of bacon has risen 100x, and the biggest of all, the cost of a Harvard education has risen 142x. Insidious… "the road to poverty is paved with small inflations."

 

 

h/t @History_Pics

*  *  *

Mises Economic blog provides some more color on where America is heading… The Road To Poverty Is Paved With Small Inflations…

The value of Venezuela’s currency plummeted to record lows on the black market last week, with 100 ‘strong’ bolivars exchanging for $1 (ten times lower than the official rate), and annual price inflation reaching 63%. Chavez’s successor Nicolas Maduro, continuing to denounce the “capitalist economic war” on his socialist regime, now blames airlines for trying to collect ticket revenues the government isn’t able to pay. Meanwhile, the Venezuelan economy is showing symptoms of a rapidly forming crack-up boom: shortage of basic amenities, power outages, depletion of dollar reserves by 30%, and looming debt default. As people scramble to exchange paper money for anything and everything that can still be found on store shelves, “over there”—say their Columbian neighbors just across the border—“there’s no food.”

The ‘final and total catastrophe of the currency system’—as Mises called the terminus point of any sustained inflation—was in fact brewing in Venezuela long before Maduro’s regime, and the country experienced even higher price inflation in late 1990s. But because people held the belief that prices might fall at some point in the future, and continued to increase or maintain their cash balances, the earlier stages of the inflationary process were drawn out over many years. However, two Caracas entrepreneurs have warned that it is now too late for the government to salvage anything: “people clearly haven’t had confidence in [the bolivar] for decades; and even less now… It doesn’t look like the market has much confidence in the government’s ability to get things under control”.

While Maduro’s regime is leading its people to poverty in a quick, conspicuous manner, other governments are more willing to wait and conceal their intentions. Moderate price inflation has been simmering for decades in Western economies, where central banks make it their official mission to keep prices increasing at an annual rate of 2%—which means doubling them over the course of 30 years. Beneath this goal of ‘price stability’, central banks’ balance sheets quadrupled by 2012 and brought about a global financial crisis. However, this produced no rampant commodity price inflation, and no flight into real goods is likely to happen in the foreseeable future.

But does that really mean that we’re a world away from Venezuelan-like problems? As Mises pointed out, not necessarily:

If you talk about a catastrophe of the money, you need not always have in mind a total breakdown of the currency system… [Price] changes are not the same, nor [do they occur] to the same degree in various countries. But one should not exaggerate the difference in the effects brought about by the greater inflations as against the smaller inflations. The effects of the “smaller inflations” are also bad. […] If the government destroys the money, it not only destroys something of extreme importance for the system, the savings people have set aside to invest and to take care of themselves in some emergency; it also destroys the very system itself. Monetary policy is the center of economic policy (Mises 2010, 31-2)

 

[W]hat we have to realize, what we have to know when we are dealing with money and monetary problems, is always the same… the increase in the quantity of money, the increase of those things which have the power to be used for monetary purposes, must be restricted at every point (Mises 2010, 24)

Great or small, inflation hurts the masses, leading to the destruction of savings, as well as unemployment and overall impoverishment, while concentrating wealth in the hands of elites privileged by their position in the monetary hierarchy. If inflation doesn’t stop, the breakdown of the monetary system—whether fast or slow—will also bring about the destruction of the social division of labor. From this point of view, the difference between inflation ‘over here’ and inflation ‘over there’ is only a matter of how quickly we become poor.




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Student Loan Bubble Blowback: Morgan Stanley Warns Average Debtor Can’t Get A Mortgage

Via Morgan Stanley,

Amid rising tuition costs, an increasing share of students rely on debt to fund their education. Student loan delinquent balances have been on the rise since the early 2000s and those with student loans are likely to be less credit worthy than those without (Exhibit 50 & Exhibit 51). As a result, consumption for the student debt-laden population may be depressed. To be sure, the share of consumption driven by college age consumers has been in decline since 2003.

These challenges are further compounded under the Qualified Mortgage (QM) regulatory regime that became effective in January 2014. The QM definition relies on the back-end Debt-to-Income (DTI) ratio not exceeding 43%. This ratio takes not only mortgage debt servicing but all debt servicing into consideration.

Outstanding student loan debt has grown from around $375 billion in 2005 to over $1.1 trillion today to become the second largest outstanding category of debt. The first-time home buyer age cohort bears a disproportionate share of this burden – almost 60% of the outstanding student loan debt is owed by the under 39 age group.

As a result, despite the low level of interest rates, mortgage affordability for first-time buyers remains roughly at the long-term average levels whereas the aggregate home buyer's affordability remains well below the longterm average. As the servicing of student loan debt is part of the DTI calculation, the new regulatory regime compounds the already substantial challenges confronting the first-time homebuyer's access to mortgage credit.

We believe the average student debtor is likely unable to secure a typical home mortgage due to their debt-to-income ratio. A simple calculation yields startling results: the average student loan debtor's DTI ratio was 0.48 in 2012, up from 0.41 in 2002. With nearly half of their income going to debt payments, the average student borrower would face challenges qualifying for an FHA mortgage.

Researchers at the New York Fed have found that prior to the financial crisis, a positive correlation existed between student loan debt among 30-year olds and the rate of homeownership. The relationship suggested that someone with student loan debt was likely to be more affluent, having secured a well-paying job after college, and therefore be more likely to purchase a home.

But following the financial crisis, the authors found that the correlation had turned negative.

In other words, carrying student loan debt has become an impediment to home buying, primarily because the borrower no longer qualifies under stricter debt-to-income guidelines. Compared to their peers without student loans, 30-year-olds with student loans are much less likely to have a mortgage (Exhibit 52). In general, data from the New York Fed reveal higher credit risk scores (higher=better) for “no student loan” borrowers compared with borrowers that carry student loans (Exhibit 53).




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Georgia Drug Warriors Raid Okra Grower, Looking for Marijuana

This is marijuana:

This is okra:

Basically the same, right? If you agree, you may have a bright
future as a Georgia drug warrior. The Atlanta
Journal-Constitution
 reports
that heavily armed Broward County deputies, accompanied by a
helicopter and a K-9 unit, showed up at the home of retiree Dwayne
Perry in Cartersville on Wednesday after someone spotted his okra
plants from the air. “They were strapped to the gills,” Perry told
the paper. “Anything could have happened.” Fortunately, no humans
or dogs were killed.

Georgia State Patrol Capt. Kermit Stokes, whose agency is in
charge of the anti-pot task force in which the deputies were
serving when they stopped by Perry’s place,
assured
a reporter for WSB-TV, the ABC station in Atlanta, that
it was all an honest mistake. “If we disturbed them in any
manner, that’s not our intent,” Stokes said. If we
disturbed them? Detracting further from his semi-apology, Stokes
suggested it still was not clear exactly what Perry was growing and
that the cops’ confusion was readily understandable. “We’ve not
been able to identify it as of yet,” he said. “But it did have
quite a number of characteristics that were similar to a cannabis
plant.”

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Emily Ekins on the Bailout Anniversary

Six years ago
today, President George W. Bush signed into law the Emergency
Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, which of course included the
bailouts for large financial institutions, banks, and eventually
Chrysler and GM automakers. While many think of the tea party as
beginning with President Obama’s stimulus plan, TARP under
President Bush was the initial catalyst.

From the perspective of tea partiers, six years ago today,
writes Reason Foundation Polling Director Emily Ekins, the joint
forces of Republicans and Democrats in Washington sent a clear
message to the large, rich, and politically connected: they really
are too big and too favored to be allowed to fail and that poor
decision-making and excessive risk-taking may be chided but will
ultimately be rewarded.

View this article.

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How to End the Public-Sector Pension Crisis: Adrian Moore

“Optimistic scenario: it’s $1 trillion in unfunded liabilities,”
says Adrian Moore,
vice president of policy at Reason
Foundation
about public-sector pensions at the state, county,
and local levels. “More realistic scenario: You’re looking at $2
trillion to $4 trillion in unfunded liabilities. That’s a
huge debt.”

Over the past dozen or so years, Moore tells Reason TV’s Nick
Gillespie, state and local governments have allowed their payrolls
be taken over by pension obligations. Rising pension costs have
been a key factor in municipal bankruptcies across the country.

Click above to watch or click the link below for more
information and downloadable links.

View this article.

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Connecticut Bureaucrats Battle After Man Declines to Show Gun Permit

Open carryIf you need any further
evidence of the stupidity of turning a right that you can exercise
at will into a privilege that requires official permission and
paperwork, cast your eyes on the case of Scott Lazurek and the
bureaucratic battle being waged over his gun permit. In a dispute
that a Connecticut prosecutor describes as a “nothing case,”
Lazurek was arrested because he apparently got sick of
papers-please hassles and declined to show his permit to openly
carry a gun to West Haven police. Now one Connecticut government
agency is
suing another
, and Lazurek has become a cause celebre for gun
rights advocates, as well as a lightning rod for bureaucratic
idiocy.

It all started on June 2, 2013, when Lazurek, a security guard,
and another man walked along the West Haven boardwalk with
holstered guns on their hips. Two security guards from a competing
employer
police officers stopped the men and demanded to see
their pistol permits. Lazurek refused, and was arrested. Among his
possessions the government employed security guards found his
pistol permit.

When the court dismissed the case a month later, prosecutor John
Barney himself
downplayed Lazurek’s alleged offense
.

“It kind of was a nothing case. He had no record. He’s a
security guard. All it boiled down to was he had a valid permit to
carry. There were no issues; he wasn’t doing anything wrong with
it. When police officers approached him and said to show it, he was
just stubborn with letting them see it. So they arrested him on
interfering because he was giving them a hard time.”

The wheels of bureaucracy turn slowly, so it took the state
Board of Firearms
Permit Examiners
until July of this year to hold a hearing on
the matter and until August 1 to give him back his permit.

Remember, Lazurek had threatened nobody. He was arrested only
for failing to produce a piece of paper which legally allowed him
to do as part of his job what the people arresting him were also
doing as part of their jobs—carrying a pistol openly.

So, a year-plus later, he got his permit back.

That pissed off the state Department of Emergency Services and
Public Protection. That agency objects that Lazurek is not a
“suitable person” to be allowed a pistol permit because “at the
hearing, Lazurek testified that gven the same set of circumstances
he would respond in the same fashion and would again refuse to
enable officers to ascertain whether he was legally carrying his
weapon.” Or so they say in the lawsuit
filed by the Department of Emergency Services and Public
Protection
against the Board of Firearms Permit Examiners and
Lazurek.

Hey, Lazurek didn’t show due deference to competing security
guards, and he insisted that carrying a gun is a right—he’s
definitely not a Department of Emergency Services and Public
Protection kind of guy.

The Connecticut Citizens Defense League is raising money
to help Lazurek
, who is a member. But watching two Connecticut
state agencies battle in court (with taxpayer money) would just be
good sport—if their tussle didn’t involve granting permission to
people to exercise their rights.

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Truth or Gaffe? Biden Admits U.S. Faces No Existential Threat From Terrorism

From declaring Ebola the “largest
epidemic in history
” to promoting “shared interest and shared
ideals,”
Vice President Joe Biden
was his old platitudinous,
gaffing
self at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government
yesterday. But he did—correctly—contradict
his boss
, arguing that America faces “no existential threat”
from violent extremism.

The Hill
reports
:

Imploring students to keep the threat posed by violent
extremists “in perspective,” Biden said that although the country
must remain vigilant, terrorists did not fundamentally challenge
“our way of life or our security.”

“Let me say it again: We face no existential threat—none—to our
way of life or our ultimate security,” Biden said. “You are twice
as likely to be struck by lightning as you around to be affected by
a terrorist event in the United States.”

And, incidentally, nine
times
 more likely to be killed by police than by
terrorists.

But Biden’s wellspring of perspicacity quickly ran dry, making
no mention that the greatest threats to the American way of life
can be found right here at home.  The Transportation Security
Administration routinely and
pointlessly
violates basic tenets of human decency. The
National Security Administration nonchalantly tramples
on the privacy rights of everyone—including those of its
loudest supporters
. Even attending an NFL game these days is an
exercise in intrusive
security theater
. All in the name of protecting us from
admittedly unlikely threats. 

Biden also cited responses to past terrorist attacks as a
testimony to American perserverance: 

We didn’t crumble after 9/11. We didn’t falter after the Boston
Marathon. But we’re America. Americans will never, ever stand down.
We endure. We overcome. We own the finish line. 

Biden may not have crumbled or faltered, but civil liberties
certainly did.
While many people were busy cheerleading the militarized show of
force in Watertown, Massachusetts, after the Boston Marathon
bombing,
others were appalled
at the wholesale abrogation of
constitutionally-protected rights at the hands of armored cops
astride armored vehicles. It took a Ferguson for people
to start questioning
if we really need a
chicken in every pot
and an
MRAP in every garage
.

While ISIS itself might not be an “imminent
threat to every interest we have
,” the threat of
ISIS and other chimerical terrorist groups is. Perhaps Biden will
evolve on that issue also. I’m not holding my breath.

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Secret Service SNAFU Deja Vu: Fake Congressman Gets Backstage At Obama Dinner

Just a day after the former director of The Secret Services resigned over fence-jumper-gate, Bloomberg reports yet another SNAFU in the President’s security – a man posing as a New Jersey member of Congress made it into a secure area backstage at President Obama’s appearance at a Congressional Black Caucus Foundation awards dinner in Washington Sept. 27. Rather stunningly, The Secret Service admits “this guy went through security, fully screened.”

 

As Bloomberg reports,

An unidentified man posing as a member of Congress made it into a secure area backstage at President Barack Obama’s appearance at a Congressional Black Caucus Foundation awards dinner in Washington Sept. 27, according to a White House official.

 

The man entered the backstage area during or just after Obama’s speech at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center as members of Congress gathered there to have their pictures taken with the president, said the official, who asked for anonymity to discuss the incident, which has not previously been made public.

 

 

The unidentified man said he was Representative Donald Payne Jr., a Democrat from New Jersey, the official said. One member of the White House staff determined that the man wasn’t Payne, and another asked him to leave, the official said. He did so without incident and wasn’t detained.

 

“This guy went through security, fully screened,” he said.

 

Neither the White House official, nor another administration official aware of the incident, could say how close the man got to the president or First Lady Michelle Obama, who was also in the vicinity. Payne’s chief of staff, LaVerne Alexander, said yesterday that she had not been informed of the incident.

*  *  *

Perhaps the Secret Service needs a new strategy…




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