Ray Dalio: "There Is Always A Downturn"

Thanks to The Federal Reserve’s extreme monetary policy, “the prospective return of asset classes is very narrow,” warns Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio, with expected returns for equities of “only about 4 percent.” This is a problem, he explains in this brief clip, as monetary policy relies on that transmission mechanism of apparent wealth creation to keep the dream alive. In Europe and Japan there is no “spread”, Dalio notes, and in the US it is miniscule – which means monetary policy is practically ineffective. While he believes in the short-term, the US economy can maintain stability (not commenting on the market per se), his “biggest concern is when the next downturn comes in 1-2 years,” the central bank must be on the ‘tighter’ side of market expectations to be capable of providing its life-giving elixir once again. Simply put, Dalio sums up “there is always a downturn”something that no Wall Street economist is expecting.

 

 

More from Bridgewater’s Dalio here




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Who Is Buying The Islamic State’s Illegal Oil?

Submitted by Chis Dalby via OilPrice.com,

In June 2014, computer files captured from a courier for the Islamic State shortly after the fall of Mosul revealed that the group had assets of $875 million, largely gained in the sacking and looting of Mosul and its central bank.

The size of the group’s bank account has now risen to an estimated $2 billion dollars, thanks in part to revenues from ransom paid for kidnapped foreigners and more pillaging. However, oil remains the group’s primary source of income.

The 11 oil fields that IS controls in Iraq and Syria have made it a largely independent financial machine. Reports show that IS-controlled fields in Iraq produce between 25,000 and 40,000 barrels of oil per day, at an estimated value of approximately $1.2 million, before being smuggled out to Iran, Kurdistan, Turkey and Syria.

That doesn’t account for revenue from oil fields that IS has held much longer in Syria, which take the Islamist group’s daily profit to just under $3 million.

But if the regional narrative of IS’s rise is to be believed, the group is universally loathed. How, then, is it so readily finding customers to buy its oil abroad?

Oil smuggling is hardly new in Iraq and Syria — Iran and Turkey have been major conduits for illegal oil exports since the days of Saddam Hussein. Those smuggling rings are still very active, and are now working with IS and contributing to its exploding wealth.

In an interview with CNN, Luay al-Khatteeb, the director of the Iraq Energy Institute, explained that “IS smuggles the crude oil and trades it for cash and refined products, at a refined price,” thanks to its own refineries in Syria.

One important reason that smugglers have been so eager to work with IS is that the terrorist group sells its oil on the cheap. A barrel of oil that would ordinarily sell for over $100 can be discounted as much as 75 percent. But it’s still a profitable sale for IS, as the money it loses from such a discount is more than made up for by the readiness of customers to buy its oil and the plethora of routes through which it can export it.

“The crude is transported by tankers to Jordan via Anbar province, to Iran via Kurdistan, to Turkey via Mosul, to Syria's local market and to the Kurdistan region of Iraq, where most of it gets refined locally,” Khatteeb explained. “Turkey has turned a blind eye to this and may continue to do so until they come under pressure from the West to close down oil black markets in the country's south.”

One of the more terrifying aspects of IS’s newly found wealth is that it is no longer based on the traditional donor model, in which rich sympathizers in the Middle-East and the West pour generous funds into training and capacity-building of fresh jihadists. IS’s goal has always been to form a caliphate, and although no country would recognize it as such, it is running the territory it conquers as a state, albeit through illegal means; IS is pumping, refining and selling oil, just like any other petro state.

What’s more, now that it controls fertile provinces in western Iraq, such as Anbar and Nineveh, the group also now sits on 40 percent of Iraq’s wheat crop, and can force farmers to deal only with them, sometimes for no pay. Baghdad is now worrying about a medium-term food crisis, since 20 percent of its stores are in IS-held territory and thousands of farmers have fled.

Clearly, there’s a stark difference between the financial operations of IS and those of Al-Qaeda and other international terrorist organizations. U.S. President Barack Obama recently admitted that his administration and the intelligence community had underestimated IS, which now looks like a nightmare to Washington.

The group has captured American military-grade weaponry and equipment and freed from jail former soldiers who know how to use it. It is independently rich but operates outside the normal fiscal system, which means conventional financial sanctions can’t touch it. It has set up its own illicit trading networks in an area it controls with an implacable totalitarianism. It effectively combines political terror, religious zealotry and financial muscle to bend local populations to its will.

IS’s powerful economic engine may not guarantee that it will one day peacefully rule the territory it claims, but $3 million a day more than assures that it can continue financing its fight to do so.




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Who Is Buying The Islamic State's Illegal Oil?

Submitted by Chis Dalby via OilPrice.com,

In June 2014, computer files captured from a courier for the Islamic State shortly after the fall of Mosul revealed that the group had assets of $875 million, largely gained in the sacking and looting of Mosul and its central bank.

The size of the group’s bank account has now risen to an estimated $2 billion dollars, thanks in part to revenues from ransom paid for kidnapped foreigners and more pillaging. However, oil remains the group’s primary source of income.

The 11 oil fields that IS controls in Iraq and Syria have made it a largely independent financial machine. Reports show that IS-controlled fields in Iraq produce between 25,000 and 40,000 barrels of oil per day, at an estimated value of approximately $1.2 million, before being smuggled out to Iran, Kurdistan, Turkey and Syria.

That doesn’t account for revenue from oil fields that IS has held much longer in Syria, which take the Islamist group’s daily profit to just under $3 million.

But if the regional narrative of IS’s rise is to be believed, the group is universally loathed. How, then, is it so readily finding customers to buy its oil abroad?

Oil smuggling is hardly new in Iraq and Syria — Iran and Turkey have been major conduits for illegal oil exports since the days of Saddam Hussein. Those smuggling rings are still very active, and are now working with IS and contributing to its exploding wealth.

In an interview with CNN, Luay al-Khatteeb, the director of the Iraq Energy Institute, explained that “IS smuggles the crude oil and trades it for cash and refined products, at a refined price,” thanks to its own refineries in Syria.

One important reason that smugglers have been so eager to work with IS is that the terrorist group sells its oil on the cheap. A barrel of oil that would ordinarily sell for over $100 can be discounted as much as 75 percent. But it’s still a profitable sale for IS, as the money it loses from such a discount is more than made up for by the readiness of customers to buy its oil and the plethora of routes through which it can export it.

“The crude is transported by tankers to Jordan via Anbar province, to Iran via Kurdistan, to Turkey via Mosul, to Syria's local market and to the Kurdistan region of Iraq, where most of it gets refined locally,” Khatteeb explained. “Turkey has turned a blind eye to this and may continue to do so until they come under pressure from the West to close down oil black markets in the country's south.”

One of the more terrifying aspects of IS’s newly found wealth is that it is no longer based on the traditional donor model, in which rich sympathizers in the Middle-East and the West pour generous funds into training and capacity-building of fresh jihadists. IS’s goal has always been to form a caliphate, and although no country would recognize it as such, it is running the territory it conquers as a state, albeit through illegal means; IS is pumping, refining and selling oil, just like any other petro state.

What’s more, now that it controls fertile provinces in western Iraq, such as Anbar and Nineveh, the group also now sits on 40 percent of Iraq’s wheat crop, and can force farmers to deal only with them, sometimes for no pay. Baghdad is now worrying about a medium-term food crisis, since 20 percent of its stores are in IS-held territory and thousands of farmers have fled.

Clearly, there’s a stark difference between the financial operations of IS and those of Al-Qaeda and other international terrorist organizations. U.S. President Barack Obama recently admitted that his administration and the intelligence community had underestimated IS, which now looks like a nightmare to Washington.

The group has captured American military-grade weaponry and equipment and freed from jail former soldiers who know how to use it. It is independently rich but operates outside the normal fiscal system, which means conventional financial sanctions can’t touch it. It has set up its own illicit trading networks in an area it controls with an implacable totalitarianism. It effectively combines political terror, religious zealotry and financial muscle to bend local populations to its will.

IS’s powerful economic engine may not guarantee that it will one day peacefully rule the territory it claims, but $3 million a day more than assures that it can continue financing its fight to do so.




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A Tale from Post-Constitutional America – This is What Happens if You Turn Your Back on Hilary Clinton

Screen Shot 2014-10-01 at 11.48.52 AMThe name Ray McGovern should be familiar to longtime readers of Liberty Blitzkrieg. The former C.I.A. analyst has been a vocal critic of the oligarch cesspool of fraud and deception that these United States has decayed into. I highlighted some of his criticisms a year ago in the post, Ray McGovern: “Obama is Afraid of the C.I.A.”, in which he memorably stated:

I think he’s just afraid and he shouldn’t have run for president if he was going to be this much of a wuss. 

Well, Mr. McGovern is back in the news. This time it’s for daring to turn his back on your royal highness, Hilary Rodham Clinton, in an act of non-violent public protest. We learn from Bill Moyers that:

continue reading

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Russell 2000 Enters 10% “Correction” As S&P, Dow, Transports Break Crucial Technical Support

The small-cap Russell 2000 is down over 10% from its July highs (down 6.2% year-to-date) as VIX is back over 17. Treasury yields continue to collapse (down 8-9bps today alone) with 10Y trading with a 2.40% handle (and 3Y under 1% again). All other major equity indices are also red from the Russell 2000 peak in July and have broken various key technical levels today – S&P below 100DMA, Dow Industrials below 100DMA, Dow Transports At 100DMA, and Nasdaq broken well below its 50DMA. Russell is back at levels first seen a year ago.

 

Russell in correction…

 

Other major equity indices breaking key technicals…

 

Financials continue to catch down to credit…

 

and Treasury Yields are collapsing….

 

An odd reaction by bonds which “are in a bubble” and stocks which “aren’t”




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Russell 2000 Enters 10% "Correction" As S&P, Dow, Transports Break Crucial Technical Support

The small-cap Russell 2000 is down over 10% from its July highs (down 6.2% year-to-date) as VIX is back over 17. Treasury yields continue to collapse (down 8-9bps today alone) with 10Y trading with a 2.40% handle (and 3Y under 1% again). All other major equity indices are also red from the Russell 2000 peak in July and have broken various key technical levels today – S&P below 100DMA, Dow Industrials below 100DMA, Dow Transports At 100DMA, and Nasdaq broken well below its 50DMA. Russell is back at levels first seen a year ago.

 

Russell in correction…

 

Other major equity indices breaking key technicals…

 

Financials continue to catch down to credit…

 

and Treasury Yields are collapsing….

 

An odd reaction by bonds which “are in a bubble” and stocks which “aren’t”




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Could This Be the Start of Something Beautiful for the Libertarian Party?

Over the weekend, CNN and ORC released a poll of North
Carolinians showing the Libertarian candidate for Senate, Sean
Haugh, receiving support from 7 percent of likely voters. He’s one
of several third party candidates receiving
attention
this year for their potential to muck up the outcome
of close Senate elections.

Sean Haugh, the Libertarian Party's candidate for U.S. SenateGiven all that attention, some may be
wondering whether the American people have become so fed up with
the two major parties that they’re finally ready to start throwing
their support behind an alternative. With six in ten disapproving
of congressional Democrats’ job handling and seven in ten
disapproving of congressional Republicans’, could we be looking at
the beginning of a Libertarian Party wave?

The problem is that third party candidates don’t just fail to
win elections—historically, they do even worse at the ballot box
than polling would suggest. In 2012, the Libertarian Party’s
nominee for president, Gary Johnson, received about 1.2 million
votes to capture 1 percent of the electorate. Given that this was
the largest raw number of ballots ever cast for a Libertarian,
readers might be tempted to celebrate. But some pre-election
surveys had Johnson at 5 percent or more. In other words, he
underperformed his polling.

That outcome wasn’t specific to 2012. When Libertarian Robert
Sarvis ran for governor of Virginia last year, there were high
hopes that one in 10 voters might swing his way. The final
RealClearPolitics
polling average
before the election put him at 9.6 percent. In
reality, he took about 6.6 percent of the vote—inarguably a
respectable result, but still not as good as surveys
forecasted.

It seems voters find it easier to tell an interviewer they’re
going to punch the box beside the name of a third party candidate
than they do to follow through with that pledge. One theory is that
it feels good to describe yourself as the kind of person who’s
willing to take a principled stand—but in the privacy of the voting
booth, the downsides of “throwing your ballot away” on someone you
know can’t win overpower the upsides of helping a candidate you
like make a strong symbolic showing.

Which isn’t to say that this year’s slate of Libertarian
hopefuls will have no effect on the final results. A third partier
need only take a couple of percentage points to be the difference
in a close election. If a significant number of erstwhile
Republicans choose Haugh over GOP challenger Thom Tillis in North
Carolina, for example, that could be enough to secure the election
for Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan.

It’s also natural to wonder if this might be the election that
breaks the rule. The trend is for third party candidates to
underperform their polling on Election Day, but then, past events
are a good predictor of future events—right up until they cease to
be.

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More Health Plan Cancellations are on the Way. Obamacare is to Blame.

At the end of last year,
millions of Americans with individual insurance policies found out
that, thanks to Obamacare, President Obama’s repeated promise that
anyone who liked their health plan could not keep their health plan
was not, in fact, true. 

This year, on the eve of a midterm election, it’s about to
happen again for hundreds of thousands of people across the
country. 

As the policy news site Morning Consult
notes
today, there are reports in multiple states that hundreds
or thousands will see their plans cancelled at the end of the year
as a direct result of not meeting Obamacare’s requirements. Some
14,000 people are expected to lose their current plans in Kentucky,
and another 800 are projected to see their plans cancelled in
Alaska. Both of those states are Senate battlegrounds with close
races. 


According
 to the Albuquerque Journal, about
30,000 people will have their plans cancelled in New Mexico. The
report leaves no question that Obamacare is the culprit, saying the
plans will be cut off because they “don’t meet the standards set by
the health care law.” 

Last month, reports surfaced
indicating
that, according to estimates produced by the state’s
insurance commission, as many as 250,000 people in Virginia will
lose their existing plans this year. 

People who lose their plans are not necessarily doomed to go
without insurance. If they stay on the individual market, they will
have the opportunity to buy new plans through Obamacare’s
exchanges, and those plans may be subsidized. But that’s not what
Obama promised when selling the law. What he said was, “if you like
your plan, you can keep your plan,” not, “if you like your plan, it
may well be cancelled, but you can purchase a different one through
a government-run storefront that federal and state regulators have
deemed compliant.” Administration officials knew full
well
that the promise was impossible to keep, much as
Clinton administration advisers knew the same thing
during
their push for health care reform in the 1990s. And yet President
Obama went ahead and made the promise anyway, over and over, on
camera, with no caveats, embracing a lie because it was politically
convenient. 

The Obama administration’s blame-shifting response to the latest
round of plan cancellations is barely a response at all. A Health
and Human Services (HHS) spokesperson
tells
The Hill that “as was the case before the
Affordable Care Act, private insurance companies operate in a free
market: they may choose to discontinue, change, and replace plans
so long as they let their enrollees know their options.”

It is perhaps debatable whether the heavily regulated health
insurance industry can be credibly described as a “free market,”
but it’s true that insurers can and do decide to cancel
plans, and they often did before Obamacare. In this case, however,
the cancellations are a direct result of Obamacare’s rules and
requirements, which were intentionally and explicitly designed to
kill off plans that did not meet the law’s particular
standards. 

The HHS spokesperson also notes that last year, under
heavy political pressure after Obama’s obvious and repeated lie
about keeping plans was exposed, the administration issued an
update allowing insurers to keep some many off-limits plans going
through 2016, subject to the approval of state
regulators. 

This move, which allows the administration to shift
responsibility for plan cancellations to insurers and state
officials, has been described as a fix, but it’s not much of one:
At most, it postpones the cancellations. Insurers and state
regulators are not deciding whether or not to cancel plans
that do not pass muster under Obamacare; they are merely deciding
when. Ultimately, the law is to blame. 

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Texas Governor Rick Perry To Explain How (Despite 2nd Case) Ebola Is “Contained” – Live Feed

With rumors spreading (and seemingly confirmed) of a 2nd Ebola case in Dallas; Texas Governor Rick Perry is set to explain to the American public that it’s all under control (despite the hospital discharging the Ebola victim 2 days ago) and the virus is contained (despite its potential spread to 12-18 more people)… Reuters further reports that the man being treated for Ebola in Texas traveled through Brussels en route to US according to the Liberian ministry of information. Rest assured Americans, Dance Moms will be on soon…

As KRJH reports,

A second person in Texas is being monitored for Ebola after coming into close contact with the first person in the U.S. diagnosed, according to health officials.

Gov. Rick Perry has scheduled a news conference at a Dallas hospital where a man with the first case of Ebola diagnosed in the U.S. remains in isolation.

 


 

Perry plans to speak at noon CDT Wednesday at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital. He’ll be joined by Dr. David Lakey, who’s commissioner of the Texas Department of State Health Services.

 

Governor Perry is due to speak at 1300ET (via NBC Dallas)


 

Governor Perry is due to speak at 1300ET (via NBC Tulsa)




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