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By EconMatters

 

How to properly value European Bonds

Possible Explanations for Large Valuation Gap 

Ireland 10 Year Bond Yield

 

Italy 10 Year Bond Yield

 

Spain 10 Year Bond Yield

 

Portugal 10 Year Bond Yield

 

France 10 Year Bond Yield

 

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via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1tkkbco EconMatters

The Islamic State is nothing if not ambitious. Despite no record of current 'airplane' assets in their annual reports, ISIS has begun detaining and forcing Syrian pilots to train militant fighters to fly stolen aircraft. According to CNN Arabic, the pilots (and their planes and helicopters) were abducted when the terrorist group gained control of Tabqa military base. It appears that if beheadings, executions, and whippings are not enough to strike fear into the hearts of the locals, then (just as America is tryiung to do), an air assault will greatly demoralize. We can only imagine how this changes Obama's strategy (and just where are all the rest of Syria and Iraq's airplanes stored?)

 

 

Via Al Arabiya,

The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria said in a recent tweet it is forcing detained Syrian pilots to train militant fighters to fly stolen aircraft, CNN Arabic reported on Saturday.

 

In an account reportedly associated with the militant group, ISIS said in a tweet the pilots were abducted when the group gained control over the Tabqa military airbase in Raqqa Province.

 

ISIS seized the airbase earlier this month. The major airfield houses warplanes, helicopters, tanks and other artillery and ammunition, which were also confiscated by ISIS, according to several media reports.

 

ISIS did not provide any information about the nature of the training, according to CNN Arabic.

*  *   *

As NYTimes reported,

The fall of the Tabqa air base followed the group’s seizing of two other Syrian military bases and gave it effective control of Raqqa Province, which abuts the Turkish border and whose capital city, Raqqa, has long served as the group’s de facto headquarters.

 

Photographs posted Sunday on Twitter accounts sympathetic to ISIS showed bearded fighters in the air base, standing next to a destroyed fighter jet and appearing to cut the head off a dead soldier.

*  *  *

Some more of the 'loot'

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1qTTvwT Tyler Durden

From Slope of Hope: I was looking at the entire history of the volatility index (the oft-cited “VIX’) and found an interesting parallel. Take note of this chart

So what we have here is:

+ Cyan tint – a grinding, multi-year slide following the bursting of a gigantic bubble. In this instance, it was the bursting of the Internet bubble, and during Greenspan’s deliberate inflation of the housing bubble, investors got calmer………..and calmer.

+ Yellow tint – The slide seemed to be over, and there was a period where fear seemed to be coming back. However, it really never seemed to take hold.

+ Magenta tint – Just when it seemed that fear was forever outlawed, and the VIX cracked briefly to lows never seen before (Grey tint), there was a sudden burst higher in volatility. In the case of February 2007, it was when the Chinese stock market made a brief tumble.

+ Green tint – Nope, the fear index falls back again to similar levels it has been grinding around at for a while. The “VIX fix” seems to be permanent.

Now take a look at more recent history, and apply every single one of those descriptions to the chart below. The only difference I see is that the most recent burst (Magenta) was muted compared to the one from 2007.

Of course, after nearly six years of this nonsense, even someone like me starts to worry that, for the first time in the history of the universe, It Really Is Different This Time. But, ummm, that’s kind of what they want us to think, isn’t it?

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1tYHuGD Tim Knight from Slope of Hope

Based on the unprecedented collapse in trading volumes of cash products over the past 6 years, one thing has become clear: retail, and increasingly, institutional investors and traders are gone, probably for ever and certainly until the Fed’s market-distorting central planning ends. However, one entity appears to have taken the place of conventional equity traders: central banks.

Courtesy of an observation by Nanex’s Eric Hunsader, we now know, with certainty and beyond merely speculation by tinfoil fringe blogs, that central banks around the world trade (and by “trade” we mean buy) S&P 500 futures such as the E-mini, in both futures and option form, as well as full size, and micro versions, in addition to the well-known central bank trading in Interest Rates, TSY and FX products.

In fact, central banks are such active traders, that the CME Globex has its own “Central Bank Incentive Program”, designed to “incentivize” central banks to provide market liquidity, i.e., limit orders, by paying them (!) tiny rebates on every trade. Because central banks can’t just print whatever money they need, apparently they need the CME to pay them to trade.

 

So the next time you sell some E-minis, ask yourself: is the ECB on the other side? Or the BOE? Or, perhaps, you are selling S&P 500 futures to Kuroda. Who knows: there is no paper trail anywhere, although a FOIA request and/or the discovery from a lawsuit, class action or otherwise, of the CME’s central bank incentive program would likely yield some stunning results.

But the only place where “discovery” would be by far the most interesting, is for the CME to disclose just which central banks provide, or take such as at 8am every morning when one market sell order takes out the entire bid staack, the most liquidity when it comes to central bank trades in “Metals Futures Contracts (Physicals).”

Because imagine the shock and awe if and when it is uncovered that the biggest active manipulators of gold are not some junior-level traders out of Britain’s criminal bank cartel, but the central banks themselves.

Finally, while the list above deals with international central banks “providing” ES liquidity, those wondering why the NY Fed is not on the list and just how the Fed’s active trading team participates in the market without breaking the law, we have just one word: Citadel.

Source: Modifications to Central Bank Incentive Program. CME/CBOT/NYMEX/COMEX #14-038

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1wTnEkL Tyler Durden

For months Europe had thought that mere verbal (and hollow) threats, populist posturing and propaganda would be enough to force Russia’s Putin to back off and withdraw from the endless Ukraine escalation, into a Kremlin cocoon with his tail between his legs. What they didn’t anticipate was that Putin would in no way back down (as that would be seen as defeat and weakness by his numerous internal foes), nor would have have to: with Russia providing a third of European gas and with winter approaching, Russia had all the trumps cards from day one. Furthermore, as a result of escalating trade wars it is not Russia’s economy that is hurting but Europe, which is on the verge of a historic triple-dip recession, only unlike 2010 and 2012, this time it is Europe’s growth dynamo, Germany, itself which is leading the lemmings into the abyss.

Now, finally, Europe has realized that its “strategy” (if it ever had one, red: Obama’s ‘strategy’ on dealing with ISIS) was flawed. It is with this mindset that European Union leaders met in Brussels earlier today and while, as usual, the the threat of new and improved sanctions to Russia was present, suddenly Europe’s leaders seem far more “fearful of a new Cold War and self-inflicted harm to their own economies” and instead decided to give Moscow another chance to make peace according to Reuters.

Confirming Europe’s realization just how serious events are, and how far down the rabbit hole Europe’s bureaucrats have gone, French President Francois Hollande, while stressing that a failure by Russia to reverse a flow of weapons and troops into eastern Ukraine would force the bloc to impose new economic measures i.e., nothing new, it is what he said just after that indicated a dramatic change in rhetoric: “Are we going to let the situation worsen, until it leads to war?” Hollande said at a news conference. “Because that’s the risk today. There is no time to waste.”

Because when Europe, the cradle of both World War I and II talks war, it is a good idea to listen.

Of course, the problem of hypocrisy promptly emerges, because it is France whose mistral amphibious assault ship is being delivered to Russia over the objections of both Germany (whose own military export complex has quite a few pending RFPs to the Kremlin) and of course Washington. That, and the fact that it is Europe’s actions that have led the situation to the bring of another world war. Actions such as the expansion of NATO to Russia’s borders which the Kremlin, justifiably, sees as yet another offensive intrusion by the west into purely regional matters, because last time anyone checked, Ukraine was neither a member of NATO nor the European Union.

The paradoxical hypocrisy continued when none other than British PM, who has been teasing with pulling the UK out of Europe for months over the election of Jean-Claude “You have to lie pretty much all the time in Europe” Juncker, also spoke on behalf of a united Europe. From Reuters:

British Prime Minister David Cameron said: “We have to address the completely unacceptable situation of having Russian troops on Ukrainian soil. Countries in Europe shouldn’t need to think long before realising just how unacceptable that is. We know that from our history.

 

“So consequences must follow if that situation continues.”

Consequences such as pushing Germany into outright depression, which in turn would lead to a global economic contraction? Sure, go ahead, but keep in mind that once again Putin has done his homework. Unless, of course, the entire premise is to launch another round of global coordinated QEasing, and this time have the Kremlin to blame as the “scapegoat” for thrusting the world into at least one more year of unprecedented Reverse Robin Hood wealth redistribution by way of central banks.

Meanwhile, Europe’s hawkish warmongers had free reign today to tell the world how they really feel:

The president of formerly Soviet Lithuania, an outspoken critic of Vladimir Putin and of EU hesitation to challenge him, called for urgent military supplies to Kiev and a tougher arms embargo on Russia. Dalia Grybauskaite said Moscow, by attacking Ukraine, was effectively “in a state of war against Europe”.

 

But large Western countries are wary of damaging their own economies through sanctions. Those include Germany, Britain and France, as well as Italy, which is heavily dependent on Russian gas and expects to secure the post of EU foreign affairs chief. Poroshenko gave short shrift to Moscow’s denials by denouncing the past week’s incursion of thousands of troops with hundreds of armoured vehicles and said he expected the summit to order the European Commission to prepare a new set of sanctions.

 

But, like Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, he used their joint news conference to stress a will to find a political solution to a crisis that President Putin blames on Kiev’s drive to turn the ex-Soviet state away from its former master Moscow and toward a Western alliance with the EU and NATO.

 

He said he was not looking for foreign military intervention and expected progress toward peace as early as Monday – because failure could push the conflict to a point of no return: “Let’s not try to spark the new flame of war in Europe,” he said.

 

Barroso also warned of the risk of a “point of no return” in stressing that EU leaders wanted to defuse the confrontation with their nuclear-armed neighbour.

 

“It makes no sense to have … a new Cold War,” Barroso said. Further conflict would hurt all of Europe, he said, adding that sanctions were meant to push Moscow to talk. His Commission already had prepared a number of options for further measures.

Europe may be shocked to learn that the Cold War never went away, but simply was on hiatus until the Russian bear and the Chinese dragon felt strong enough they can finally ascend to global superpower status, in the process sweeping away the insolvent west, and its reserve currency status.

All that said, no pun intended, there was nothing actually decided today in Brussels, nor was any action taken, as is generically the case in Europe. In fact, the only thing that did happen is that as was known in advance, moments ago Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk replaced Haiku-spewing, unelected Gollum lookalike Herman Van Rompuy, a well-known figurehead from the days when Europe was actively fighting for its survival.

Elected. The European Council has elected PM Donald Tusk as the next President of the European Council & Euro Summits #EUCO @premiertusk

— Herman Van Rompuy (@euHvR) August 30, 2014

With Tusk, a conservative easterner, replacing the Belgian Van Rompuy, Italian Foreign Minister Federica Mogherini from the centre left would take over as the bloc’s foreign policy chief, replacing Briton Catherine Ashton.

In overall charge of the executive Commission, in succession to Barroso, will be conservative former Luxembourg premier Jean-Claude Juncker, appointed at a stormy summit two months ago.

 

 

Eastern leaders, alarmed by a resurgent Moscow, had resisted the appointment of Mogherini at that time. At 41 and in government only since February, they saw her as lacking the political experience and weight to stand up to the Kremlin and also handicapped by Italy’s dependence on Russian energy.

In fact, while Europe’s powerlessness to do anything to halt Putin’s advance is well-known, the most interesting aspect of today’s meeting that left Belgian caterers that much richer, was the horsetrading of hollow, bureaucratic figureheads at the top: something Europe also excels at.

Britain, France, Germany and other countries are competing to see their nominees secure important portfolios in Juncker’s team, such as in economic affairs, trade and energy supply.

 

The horse-trading over jobs underlines the power of rival national governments over the supranational institutions of the EU. Proponents of a strong political leadership in Brussels that can inspire and rally an increasingly sceptical European public behind the common project may again be left disappointed.

 

Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi said on Friday he would propose a meeting to discuss tackling the “really worrying” economic situation across Europe, with growth and jobs elusive and fears of a new crisis for the euro currency.

 

The leaders agreed to schedule that summit for Oct. 7, according to the draft statement.

And so on.

To summarize: more worthless power moves, more hollow rhetoric and threats, more verbal escalation and nothing else.

In fact, the most notable comment all day today came from Hungarian Premier Viktor Orban who said that EU sanctions on Russia haven’t worked and it’s “self-delusion” to think they’ll help resolve the crisis in Ukraine.

Well, if there is anything Europe, and its virtually unlimited, but certainly limited amount of political capital are spent to preserve an unsustainable, artificial union, excels at, it is “self-delusions”

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1ub7hdX Tyler Durden

Submitted by Matt McCaffrey via The Mises Economics Blog,

The 100^th anniversary of the beginning of World War I seems like an ideal opportunity to spread a message of peace and economic cooperation; sadly, 2014 has so far been a year of new and renewed conflict far more than one of reconciliation.

By now, talk of the horrors of war is nothing new. Everyone knows about the total destruction war brings; in fact, we’ve known for millennia. As Lew Rockwell points out, “just about everyone makes the perfunctory nod to the tragedy of war, that war is a last resort only, and that everyone sincerely regrets having to go to war”—but war continues all the same. Even classical military strategists like Sun Tzu believed war should only be used only as a last resort, and argued that military campaigns could bankrupt states and ultimately, destroy them. Art of War actually states that “no country has ever profited from protracted warfare,” and cautions generals to “fight under Heaven with the paramount aim of ‘preservation.’” Yet as far back as we have historical records, these sorts of ideas have fallen on deaf ears among governments and military organizations alike.

Economics offers many insights into war making and why it persists, but the most fundamental explanation is an institutional one. It’s tragically simple: warnings about the horrors of war go unheeded because the power to make war—as well as “justify” it in the eyes of those forced to fight and finance it—lies in the hands of the state and its business and intellectual allies. States are monopolists of organized force, and as such decide when and how to use their power on a grand scale, especially when they wish to confront other monopolists.

In fact, economic reasoning tells us that conflict is an integral part of the logic of states, which are inherently prone to warfare and imperialism. That war is an essential and practically inevitable behavior of government has been known since ancient times: for instance, Art of War begins by stating that “War is the greatest affair of state, the basis of [its] life and death, the Tao to survival or extinction.”

The central problem is that government is based on the use of the “political means” rather than the “economic means” of social organization. States are not producers of goods and services in the market; rather, they operate by forcible redistribution. They are therefore founded on a conflict of interest between the rulers and the ruled, especially between the winners and losers of the redistribution process.

Furthermore, because state decisions are not guided by entrepreneurial calculation, they result in the waste and destruction of resources, resources that must be replenished if the ruling class hopes to continue to consume. States therefore search constantly for new sources of revenue to support themselves, and to that end they use traditional methods of public finance: taxation, borrowing, and inflation. But these policies ultimately compound their difficulties, generating poverty and inequality, and intensifying social conflict.

Every way they turn, states face recurring economic problems and the need to distract or suppress the victims of exploitation; war making serves the dual purpose of (a) disguising fundamental social conflicts by refocusing attention and/or blame, and (b) providing economic gains to the state and its allies. This then is one economic explanation of how organized violence on a small scale leads to organized violence on a massive scale.

If we want to understand why war persists, we have to take account of the economic foundation of the state. We can’t reason in an institutional vacuum, like the many people throughout history who believed it was enough to simply point out the obvious calamity of war, while leaving the power to make it in the hands of a ruling class.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1n9Tf86 Tyler Durden

Despite border closures, flight bans, cordoning off the sick (and healthy), and rubber (and live) bullets and tear gas on ‘protesters’; the world’s worst outbreak of Ebola just keeps spreading, now to a sixth African nation. Just day after Congo (5th nation) reported cases of Ebola, as The BBC reports, Senegal’s health minister confirmed the first case of Ebola in his nation yesterday and Bloomberg confirms 20 more people are “under surveillance.” Meanwhile, in Guinea a Red Cross official said riots had broken out in the nation’s 2nd largest city over rumors that health workers had infected people with the virus; and Nigerians are protesting plans to build isolation units in some local clinics. “contained”

 

Senegal becomes the 6th African nation with Ebola after Congo, Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra-Leone, and Liberia

 

As The BBC reports, Senegal had tried to block this…

Senegal had previously closed its border with Guinea in an attempt to halt the spread of Ebola, but the frontier is porous.

 

It had also banned flights and ships from Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone – the three worst-hit countries.

But…

• *EBOLA-INFECTED MAN ENTERED SENEGAL BY CAR FROM GUINEA: MINISTER

Awa Marie Coll Seck told reporters on Friday that a young man from Guinea had travelled to Senegal despite having been infected with the virus.

The man was immediately placed in quarantine, she added.

For now he is ‘stable’…

• *EBOLA CASE IN SENEGAL IS STABLE, NO FEVER, MAY RECOVER

But…

• *ABOUT 20 PEOPLE UNDER SURVEILLANCE FOR EBOLA: SENEGAL MINISTER

And…

• *SENEGAL WILL REQUEST EBOLA DRUG VIA WORLD HEALTH ORG.: MINISTER

*  *  *

In Guinea, a 24-hour curfew has been imposed in the second city, Nzerekore, because of a riot after the main market was sprayed with disinfectant in an attempt to halt the spread of the virus.

The exact cause of the riot is not clear – some people reportedly feared the spray would spread Ebola, while other chanted: “Ebola is a lie”. Police responded by firing tear gas.

 

“A rumor, which was totally false, spread that we had sprayed the market in order to transmit the virus to locals,” Traore said. “People revolted and resorted to violence, prompting soldiers to intervene.”

 

The city is the capital of the Forest Region, where the Ebola epidemic has its epicentre – near the town of Gueckedou.

 

However the BBC’s Alhassan Sillah in Guinea says the town has miraculously remained free of Ebola so far.

And Nigerians are not happy…

In Nigeria, meanwhile, some have pushed back against government plans to build isolation units in their neighborhoods, even saying they would sooner burn Ebola centers down than allow them to operate.

 

In the northern city of Kaduna, hundreds of people on Wednesday protested plans to convert sections of a local clinic into an Ebola treatment center. Many carried signs that said: “No Ebola in our hospital.”

*  *  *
Much worse than expected and is crushing Africa’s GDP…

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1qSLA2R Tyler Durden

Driven by the real and anticipated divergence in economic performance and trajectory of monetary policy, the long anticipated US dollar recovery has begun.  As is evident in the positioning of the futures market, and confirmed by anecdotal evidence, speculative participants have amassed a significant large US dollar position.    Broader measures of portfolio flows are less timely, but those that track mutual fund and ETF flows also report foreign demand for US assets.  

 

The two knocks against the currency market have been the lack of follow through and the low volatility.   The former has been exaggerated, and the latter may be changing.  Perhaps what many say was the lack of follow through was really about being on the wrong side of the trade.  Rather than continue to rally, the dollar’s advance against the yen stopped dead in its tracked at the start of the year.  Sterling trended higher from around $1.65 in mid-March to $1.72 in mid-July and that back to $1.65 in late-August.    Sterling’s recent decline including a 7-week losing streak that ended last week (just barely).  And with last week’s losses, the euro itself has declined for seven consecutive weeks.  

 

Volatility in the euro and yen have been moving higher.  The three-month implied volatility of both the euro-dollar and dollar-yen spent last week above their 100-day moving averages after bottoming in mid-July.   For the euro, it is the first time since the start of the year, and this is the longest the implied dollar-yen vol has stayed above its 100-day average since the middle of last year.  

 

Sterling is an exception to the general pattern of a stronger dollar, higher volatility.  Sterling peaking against the dollar in mid-July, but the implied volatility peaked a few weeks later in early August. Perhaps at when sterling fell through a technical retracement objective near $1.68, the option players only then recognized that a top of some import was in place and were no longer looking to buy upside protection.  As the sterling has moved back into more familiar levels, volatility has continued to ease and is back to within striking distance of the multi-year low set in June near 5%.  That said, we can see how an out-of-the-money options could offer attractive returned if the Scottish referendum in the middle of September surprises or, if once passed this key event, sterling rallies.  

 

Technically, the dollar looks stretched, but there is no compelling evidence to think that it has reached an important top against the yen, or that the euro is near a bottom.  Sterling has been nesting in the $1.6540-60 area and is fundamentally positioned to out-perform the continental currencies and yen. However, it might struggle to recoup much ground against the dollar until the Scottish referendum is held.   

 

The ECB meeting is key, and ahead of it, the euro could lose a cent, but remain above $1.30. We see a better chance of a rate cut than the unveiling of an ABS purchase program, or some other variant of QE that many other observers have emphasized.  Many observers do think Draghi pre-committed ECB action in his Jackson Hole speech, especially the improvised additions.  

 

We are bemused by the fact that many who have argued that QE was ineffective in the US, UK, Japan, and Switzerland are among those who advocate it for the ECB.    In any event, do see a heightened risk of either disappointment with the ECB’s action or “sell the rumor buy the fact” type of activity that can potentially trigger a squeeze. Such a bounce can be anticipated by investors and used to help time the implementation of an allocation strategy.  

 

It is interesting to consider who is selling the yen.  We know speculators in the futures market has built a substantial short yen position.  We know from the MOF weekly data that Japanese investors have stepped up their purchases of foreign assets.  Japan’s public pension fund appears to have stepped up the diversification out of JGBs, raising foreign bond allocations.  Many suggest the carry-trade is back in vogue. While this is possible, we are skeptical.  There are other reasons to sell the yen besides carry, like momentum and portfolio allocation optimization.   

 

Moreover, Japan is no longer the low-interest rate country.   Overnight money in the euro area briefly exchanged hands at less than zero.  The German yield curve, out to three years, had a negative yield at the end of the week.   None of the Japanese curve is negative.  At the long-end consider that Switzerland’s benchmark 10-year bond yield is a couple of basis points through Japan.  

 

The point is not that it is not a carry trade because there is no yield pick-up, but rather because the yen is not the most attractive funding currency now.  In addition, the fact of the matter is that the dollar-yen upside breakout was not a function of a wider US premium over Japan, which many, including ourselves had expected.  

 

The dollar-bloc currencies do look to be better-positioned technically.  Since the end of the Q1, the Canadian and Australian dollars have been the best performers, gaining 1.7% and 0.8% respectively against the dollar.  We suspect the Canadian dollar can continue to outperform.  Both central banks meet next week.  Neither will change policy, but the RBA is more likely to complain about the currency’s strength.  

 

Currently, we would argue; Canada draws a bigger benefit of being integrated into the US economy that Australia does being tied to China.  The recent data suggests that the Canadian economy has greater momentum than Australia. This is especially important for equity investors, where the Toronto Stock Index is up 14.5% compared with the ASX’s 5.1% advance year-to-date.   Australia does offer a higher yields than Canada.  We are also more inclined to see the RBA cut than the BOC (though not until late this year, or more likely, next year).   

 

The US dollar found support ahead of CAD1.08.  This is an important area, and a break would allow the greenback to complete the double top pattern carved out near CAD1.10 and has a minimal objective of  CAD1.0720.  The 5-day moving average crossed below the 20-day at the end of last week  This is the first such crossing since mid-July that signaled a near-3% move.  

 

US S&P 500 made new record highs last week, though spent most of last week consolidating. August was its best month since February (up ~1.5%, NASDAQ up near 3%).  Volume was especially light during the last week and a half.  With interest rates low and still falling, what many see as the ultimate fuel for equities would appear to remain in place.  The US 10-year yield made new lows for the move before the weekend, while the 2-year yield was pushed back below 50 bp.  Lastly, we note that the price of oil (generic) rallied last week, snapping a six week declining streak.  It is testing its 20-day moving average near $96.  It has not traded above this average since July 22.  

 

 

Observations from speculative positioning in the futures market:  

 

1.  There were two significant position adjustments in the CFTC reporting period ending August 26.  The gross long yen position increased by 17.2k contracts to 122.4k.  The gross long Mexican peso position grew 15.5k contracts to 71.7k.  

 

2. Separately, we note that the gross short euro position rose by 9k contracts to 204.6.    The record gross position was set in July 2012 near 244k contracts.  Even though the risk of break-up of the euro area and the risk that a large country defaults have fallen sharply, sentiment is almost as extreme.  

 

3.  Many Treasury bears threw in the towel in the latest period.  About 22% of the gross short position was covered.  In numerical terms, this was 116.5k contracts.  This brought the gross short position down to 410k contracts.  The gross longs were pared by 65k contracts to 418k.   This was enough to swing the net position to long for the first time in a year.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1tjSQHs Marc To Market