University Violates Its Own Speech Code; Free Speech Group Discovers a Drawback to Pointing This Out

There is no subtext here, just text. In honor of that, there will be no alt-text here either.How loosely worded is the
University of New Mexico’s
sexual harassment policy
? Its ban on “displaying sexually
suggestive objects, pictures, cartoons, or posters” has just one
exception—for “art displayed in museums”—and even then “the
situation will be evaluated for appropriateness.” Last week
Samantha Harris, an attorney at the civil libertarian Foundation
for Individual Rights in Education (FIRE), pointed
out
 one consequence of a restriction so broad: The
university’s own Women’s Resource Center was violating it.

September 29–Oct 2 is “Sex Week” at UNM—a weeklong
series of programs for students including “Negotiating Successful
Threesomes,” “O-Face Oral” and “BJs and Beyond.” Sex Week is
sponsored in part by the university’s Women’s Resource Center. Sex
Week also violates the university’s own speech codes, since even
the titles of the workshops—and thus any Sex Week promotional
materials—are “sexually suggestive.”

At the time Harris was writing, the university was defending the
event against offended conservatives by invoking the value of free
expression. Harris offered the obvious response: “If UNM truly
believes what it is saying…why does it maintain
unconstitutional speech codes that prohibit exactly the kind of
speech at issue here
?”

If the university was listening, it learned the wrong lesson.
Harris’ colleague Susan Kruth
picks up the story
:

UNM released
a statement
on Wednesday apologizing for “the inclusion of
topics that are sensational and controversial.” Vice President for
Student Affairs Eliseo Torres promises in the statement, “We will
do a better job in the future of vetting and selecting programs
offered through campus groups.”

Needless to say, free speech does not require a public
university to sponsor such an event, as opposed to merely allowing
it to take place. But it’s dispiriting to watch the college plunge
from praising free speech to apologizing for being
“controversial.” (God forbid that there
be controversy on campus.) This clearly isn’t an
institution on the verge of rethinking its rules.

On the bright side, I haven’t seen any reports of anyone being
charged with harassment for posting a Sex Week flier on a bulletin
board.

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8 Reasons Why The Long-Bond Is Going Under 2.50%

Via Scotiabank’s Guy Haselmann,

I’ve been a bond bull since February, frequently predicting that the 30 year would fall below 3% by the end of the year.  Last week, I said it would fall below 3% by Thanksgiving; a call I still standby.   For the reasons that I mentioned on a morning call, I will give the shortened version of a case why the long bond may even be headed toward 2.5% in 2015.

As the country managing the world’s reserve currency, the US needs to run a chronic current account deficit to supply the world with dollars.  Yet, in running a chronic perpetual deficit it undermines confidence in it.  This is what is known as the Triffin Dilemma.

Many believe QE3’s printing of $1 trillion per year (of a fiat currency) would be the tipping point that would debase the dollar.  Bitcoin become popular and Gold soared.  The world was flush in dollars.  EM corporates issued in dollars, expanding the outstanding float of such securities 7x versus 2006 levels. The debasement never happened and now that the QE is ending, the world will have fewer dollars. In turn, the dollar is under pressure and Bitcoin has collapsed (75%).

Most importantly, the shale revolution is structurally shrinking the size of the US current account and fiscal deficits.  The US is producing an extra million barrels of oil per year.  Throw in a looming interest rate hike and the dollar is rising (more demand than supply).   Since the US is exporting less capital, liquidity in being tightened abroad, particularly for countries whose currencies are tied to the dollar (China) or who depend on commodity production (EM). 

Reasons to like long Treasuries:

  1. To obtain more dollars, these countries can try to export more or they can deflate their currencies. Either result is deflationary for the US.
  2. Bank regulation means that new bank deposits are going into Treasuries and away from loans and credit securities.
  3. Rule changes from the PBGC will increase demand over time for long dated Treasuries (asset allocation shift away from equities) as penalties for under-funding become more punitive.
  4. Bad demographics and higher debt levels will act as economic growth headwinds.
  5. The falling fiscal deficit will result in less Treasury issuance going forward.
  6. The Fed owns over 40% of all secondary Treasury securities 10-years and longer, so there is a shortage of high quality longer dated securities.
  7. Geo-political tensions are the highest in decades.
  8. China is reeling in its credit and real estate bubbles further hurting commodity exporters.  (etc)

Equities and credit instruments will be hard pressed to justify valuations.  With little pricing power and economic growth that is likely to be modest at best, revenue growth and profits are unlikely to be adequate enough to justify lofty valuations.

I maintain my bullish view on long Treasuries and implore investors not to underestimate the upside potential (in price).  Almost everyone is expecting much higher yields in the near term, but a 30-year drop in yield toward 2.5% should be considered as a possibility.




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DEA Agent Creates Fake Profile With Photos Pilfered From Woman’s Seized Phone

Sondra Prince photo used by DEAAlthough Facebook is part of a movement to use
real identities online—”Having two identities for yourself is an
example of a lack of integrity,” CEO Mark Zuckerberg
once said
—there are at least 83 million fake profiles on
Facebook, by the company’s
own estimation
. Like the old joke about the mathematician in
Scotland, we know at least one of those profiles is a federal
agent’s.

The Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) and one of its agents, Timothy
Sinnigen, have found themselves in court after Sinnigen pilfered
the seized photos of a woman named Sondra Prince and created a fake
profile to bust an alleged drug ring in New York City. Prince has
sued Sinnigen and the DEA and the case is in mediation. The
Washington Post

reports
:

One matter that’s agreed upon by all parties: Sinnigen, who is
claiming qualified immunity from the suit, created the
profile and posed as her in contacts with at
least one fugitive connected to a DEA investigation.

“Sinnigen posted photographs from [Prince’s] phone, to
which he had been granted access, to the undercover Facebook page,”
an August court filing by the government states. “… Defendants
admit [Prince] did not give express permission for the use of the
photographs contained on her phone on an undercover Facebook page,
but state [that Prince] implicitly consented by granting access to
the information stored in her phone.”

Translation: All the pics were fair game. Even ones showing
Prince scantily dressed, which Sinnigen used in the fake profile.
“Defendants admit that in one photograph of [Prince] that was used
on the undercover Facebook page, [she] was wearing either a
two-piece bathing suit or a bra and underwear,” the filing
states.

The DEA believed Prince was a girlfriend of the alleged drug
ring’s leader and she pled guilty to one count of conspiracy to
possess with intent to distribute (that is a real charge in the war
on drugs). Sinnigen used his knowledge of her boyfriend and her to
impersonate her better. Other cops admit to using fake Facebook
profiles in their investigations, for things like
finding illegal punk shows
, but the practice runs afoul of the
company’s policy.

Related:
In 2012 two Texas pre-teens were charged
with online
impersonation for creating a fake Facebook profile of another
girl.

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IMF Comedy Hour: The Complete History Of The IMF’s Growth “Forecasts” Since 2012

It’s that time in the quarter again when the IMF releases its latest comedy hour script, also known as its World Economic Forecast, this time for October, “predicting” what growth in various countries and around the globe, as well as trade will look like for the next two years. We have repeatedly covered why this is one of the most hilarious periodic debacles of conventional economics as the one thing the IMF is sure to get right is that it will be wrong about everything (but it sure won’t stop trying, for example we are confident the IMF’s projection of 2022 Greek GDP is still “spot on”), so we won’t waste more time on the preamble.

So without further ado, here is the complete history of the IMF’s quarterly forecast revisions of growth since 2012, in charts.

First, the good news, if only for now: the United States, which is the only country to see its 2015 GDP forecast increase, or rather hockeystick, from 2.2% to 3.1%. Good luck with that, considering the end of QE and the whole soaring USD thing.

 

However, any optimism about the US is promptly crushed by the ongoing economic destruction that is taking place in Europe. And while the 2015 GDP forecast was cut to the lowest in the series, from 1.5% to 1.3%, considering Europe is now unofficially in a triple-dip recession, look for the 2015 print to quickly go negative over the next 1-2 IMF WEO releases.

 

Then there is China, which curiously, this time was left unchanged across the entire curve. We doubt it will remain there when forecast becomes history, even though this is the one country where the IMF no longer believes in the hockeystick.

 

And then here is “the world”, which was supposed to grow by 4.1% in 2013. Instead, the 2015 forecast was just cut from 4.0% to 3.8%. And that, of course, includes a hockeystick from 2014, which back in 2013 was supposed to grow by 4.1% and is now the lowest it has been at 3.3%. In fact, spot the trend foe 2012, 2013 and 2014 global GDP forecasts: 3.4%, 3.3%, 3.3%.

 

And most disturbing of all, and the chart which will as usual be ignored as much as possible because central banks can not print trade, is the IMF’s ever deteriorating outlook for global trade. It was supposed to rise 5.5% two years ago. Now it just hit cycle lows of a meager 3.8%, and certainly going far lower.

 

Finally, the IMF’s most favoritest chart:




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IMF Cuts Global Growth Expectations, Still 30% Above Consensus

The always “nailing it” IMF has downgraded global growth expectations…

  • *IMF SEES WORLD ECONOMY GROWING 3.8% NEXT YEAR VS 4% JULY EST.

Citing geopolitical risk (among other things). The only problem – the IMF’s estimate is still 30% better growth than the consensus expects for 2015

 




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Spain Warns “Something Went Wrong” As Suspected Ebola Cases Rise In Madrid

Despite being described by Spain's public health director as "a national jewel," the head of Spain's Nursing Council warns "something went wrong" in the health care system's protocols. As RT reports, Spanish health officials have 4 patients interned including infected initial nurse, her husband, and a 2nd nurse (male). Furthermore, 22 more possible Ebola cases are under surveillance having had direct contact with the infected nurse during her vacation after being infected (officials have said they 'don't know' how she became infected with the deadly virus). Images within the hospital show "irregularities" and make-shift isolation units and an insider account said "I do not want to create social alarm, but explain what is still a reality everyday for a few months of nursing staff at the ICU.". One researcher noted "air traffic is the driver.," and added ominously, "it's just a matter of who gets lucky and who gets unlucky."

 

As RT reports,

Health officials in Madrid say three more people are in the hospital on suspicion of contracting Ebola. The news comes a day after a nurse who treated two Ebola patients at a city hospital became infected with the disease.

 

The nurse is now being treated with a drip using antibodies from those previously infected with the virus, Reuters reports. Approximately 22 contacts of the woman, often referred to as the 'Spanish Ebola nurse,' have been identified and are being monitored, Madrid health officials told a press conference on Tuesday.

 

The officials added that the hospitalized include the nurse's husband, another health worker and a traveler who had spent time in one of he affected West African countries.

Spanish authorities are struggling to explain the infection, as The Daily Mail reports

"At the moment we are investigating the way in which the professional was infected," said Antonio Alemany, the head of Madrid's primary health care services.

 

"We don't know yet what failed," he was quoted by the Guardian as saying. "We're investigating the mechanism of infection."

 

Mercedes Vinuesa, the head of Spain's public health service, told parliament today that the nurse's husband had been placed in quarantine.

And, as RT reports, in a similar vein to Dallas, it appears local hospitals were anything but prepared for this…

Spanish authorities have come under increasing pressure to explain how the disease was able to spread in their hopital. While they say all proper protocols and procedure were followed while providing care to the deceased missionaries, reports to the contrary have surfaced.

 

According to the Guardian, staff at the hospital said waste from the rooms of both patients had been carried out in the same elevator used by all personnel. The hospital was also reportedly not evacuated when the second patient, García Viejo, was taken in to receive treatment.

 

Union workers also accused the government of providing hospital staff with adequate hazmat-suits.

 

Some Spanish medical-worker representatives said the situation should prompt an overhaul of the procedures and facilities used to treat those afflicted with the virus.

 

“Something went wrong,” Máximo Gonzalez Jurado, head of Spain’s General Nursing Council, told Spanish news agency EFE. “They need to establish if the protocol is correct or not correct so that a case like this, that never should have happened, doesn’t happen again.”

*  *  *

"Air traffic is the driver," warns Professor Alessandro Vespignani of Northeastern University in Boston…predicting where the virus will spread…

There is a 50 per cent chance a traveller carrying the disease could touch down in the UK by October 24, a team of U.S. researchers have predicted.

 

Using Ebola spread patterns and airline traffic data they have calculated the odds of the virus spreading across the world.

 

They estimate there is a 75 per cent chance Ebola will reach French shores by October 24.

 

And Belgium has a 40 per cent chance of seeing the disease arrive on its territory, while Spain and Switzerland have lower risks of 14 per cent each.

 

 

 

'It's just a matter of who gets lucky and who gets unlucky."

*  *  *

An insider whistle-blows on the weakness in Spanish anti-Ebola protocls (via Google Translate)

I am a nurse in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) of the Hospital La Paz. The reason for addressing you.'s To inform the public the facts that have happened recently regarding the "Crisis of the Ebola virus" opinion. Do not want to create social alarm, but tell what is still a reality in everyday for a few months of nursing staff the ICU among which I include ago.

Since the hospital was named La Paz as a reference center for the diagnosis and treatment of HIV infection in April 2014, the staff has been showing its disconfor to that measure and irregularities have been committing the direction of nursing the hospital as a whole. (See attachment Notification Judge).

These irregularities summarize, focus on that:

• The hospital does not have adequate infrastructure to enter patients affected with this type of disease (the famous isolation rooms with negative pressure).

• The original protocols of the Ministry of Health were modified to fit like the gaps that had the hospital: If you do not have "negative pressure" we say "as far as is demonstrated airborne transmission is not necessary."

• General (modified or not) protocols are not handed to staff for knowledge, nor were exposed at various meetings with management nursing.

• As ICU care were demanding the implementation of specific protocols UCI (Today still not exist or at least personnel have not arrived)

• Staff training requires the completion of courses and training to work in situations like this.

• The Department of Preventive Medicine Hospital offers two informative talks (45 minutes) of such as personal protective equipment required. In those talks and the inexperience of the same staff that taught, costumes torn apart, replaced the shims for plastic bags, there were no complete SCUBA and coming to say more or less I had to do a hack to cover his face with masking tape.

Without being solved any of these issues by the Department of the hospital, you will hanging out and communicating to staff that will be the Hospital of the defense "Gómez Ulla" who takes these emergencies but as it is in the process of reform to create appropriate facilities, until the month of October will remain referral hospital.

Finally only remains to emphasize that in all this there is a lot of improvisation and a lot of reckless attitude of those who truly, really … NOT going to be ahead of the virus at him in the face. Listen to those who are on the front line have something to say.

*  *  *

Un-contained…




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Today at SCOTUS: Prison Security vs. Inmates’ Religious Liberty

The U.S. Supreme Court will hear oral argument today in the case
of
Holt v. Hobbs
. At issue is the Arkansas Department of
Corrections’ refusal to allow a Muslim inmate named Gregory Houston
Holt (also known as Abdul Maalik Muhammed) to grow a one-half inch
beard in accordance with his religious beliefs. According to state
officials, the no-beard policy is essential to maintaining safety
and security. It prevents inmates from hiding contraband on their
persons, those officials claim, and also prevents inmates from
changing their appearance by shaving.

But the mere assertion of such rationales is not sufficient by
itself to justify this restriction. In order to pass muster, the
prison’s no-beard policy must satisfy the terms of a federal law
known as the Religious Land Use and Institutionalized Persons Act
(RLUIPA), which holds: “No government shall impose a substantial
burden on the religious exercise” of prisoners residing in
institutions that receive federal funding, unless the government
can demonstrate that the burden furthers “a compelling government
interest” and “is the least restrictive means” of doing so. If that
language sounds familiar, it’s because the RLUIPA largely borrowed
it from the Religious Freedom Restoration Act, the federal law
recently invoked by the Supreme Court in the Obamacare case
Burwell v. Hobby Lobby Stores Inc.

In this case, the law is squarely on Holt’s side. As his lawyers
at the Becket Fund for Religious Liberty observe in their
main brief
, “forty-four other state and federal prisons with
the same security interests allow the beards that Arkansas
forbids.” In other words, while prison security is undoubtedly a
“compelling government interest,” the no-beard policy is far from
the “least restrictive means” of achieving it.

For its part, Arkansas maintains that its
correctional officers are entitled to broad deference from the
courts. But that argument not only fails to satisfy the strict
requirements of the RLUIPA, it also runs counter to an important
19th century precedent set by Justice Stephen Field, one of the
Supreme Court’s first great conservative jurists. In the 1879
Circuit Court case of Ah Kow v. Nunan, Justice Field
confronted a San Francisco ordinance which required all male
prisoners in the county jail to have their hair “cut or clipped to
an uniform length of one inch from the scalp.” City officials
claimed it was a public health regulation, but in fact the law’s
real purpose was to humiliate male Chinese immigrants, who commonly
wore their hair in long braided ponytails known as a queues. This
“queue ordinance” (as it was known throughout the city) was just
one of the many racist and xenophobic regulations passed by
California officials in response to the arrival of Chinese
immigrants.

Field struck it from the books. To describe the “hostile and
spiteful” queue ordinance as a valid health measure “is notoriously
a mere pretense,” he declared. “The ordinance acts with special
severity upon Chinese prisoners, inflicting upon them suffering
altogether disproportionate to what would be endured by other
prisoners if enforced against them.”

Field’s logic holds equal force in the present case. A prison
regulation which harms religious minorities in a manner that is
“altogether disproportionate to what would be endured by other
prisoners” deserves no deference from the Supreme Court.

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A.M. Links: Additional Ebola Screenings for Flights From West Africa, NATO Has ISIS Plan, Mexican Army Takes Over Town After Mass Grave Found

  • Mexican troops in IgualaThe U.S. is not prepared to ban
    flights from West Africa over
    Ebola
    but will institute additional passenger screening in the
    U.S. and West Africa.
  • Sen.
    Bob Casey
    (D-Pa.) is the latest senator calling for a debate
    and a vote on authorizing the use of military force against ISIS,
    the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. As ISIS tries to seize a
    Syrian town near the Turkish border, Turkey’s foreign minister says

    NATO
    has a plan should ISIS attack the country.
  • Democrats in the
    House of Representatives
    say they’ve been abandoned by labor
    and environmental groups ahead of the midterm elections.
  • The Republican governor of Pennsylvania,
    Tom Corbett
    , who looks headed for defeat in November, wants a
    bill passed that would criminalize behavior by convicts found to
    cause their victims continued “mental anguish.” The bill was
    introduced after Mumia Abu Jamal, convicted of killing a
    Philadelphia cop in 1981, gave a commencement address at a college
    in Vermont.
  • The
    State Department
    says it’s concerned by border skirmishes
    between Pakistan and India.
  • The Mexican army has taken over security in
    Iguala
    after 43 students disappeared and a mass grave was
    found.

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