Go Home, Consent, You're Drunk

As calls to
“end” campus rape
reach a fever pitch, I want to highlight a
few recent pieces on sexual consent from around the web. California
is currently
considering “affirmative consent”
legislation
 that would create a separate definition
of rape for college students, one in which the absense of
“affirmative, conscious, and voluntary” (though not
necessarily verbal) agreement to proceed at each step of sexual
activity would be considered assault. 

One of the biggest areas of controversy in
the legislation
is a section concerning consent and
intoxication. “In the evaluation of complaints in the disciplinary
process,” the bill states, “it shall not be a valid excuse that the
accused believed that the complainant affirmatively consented…if
the accused knew or reasonably should have known that the
complainant was unable to consent to the sexual activity” because
of incapacitation “due to the influence of drugs, alcohol, or
medication.” Many have pointed out that this standard is awfully
vague, leaving much room for discretion in what constitutes
too incapacitated to consent.


Megan McArdle suggests
 that this is a feature, not a bug,
for those pushing affirmative-consent policies: 

Prosecutors, and regulators more generally, like vague standards
that are impossible to enforce consistently. It gives them a great
deal of discretion in whom they target and how. It is a threat that
can be wielded to force pleas to lesser crimes or other “voluntary”
actions that obviate the need for a messy trial they might
lose.

If university administrators moved to an affirmative-consent
standard by themselves, parents and alumni, particularly the
parents of sons, might complain. But if lawmakers force them to it
… well, it’s another weapon in the arsenal that allows them to
target men who, say, generate too many plausible but
impossible-to-prove complaints. The part of me that was a
potentially vulnerable college woman understands the desire. But
the part of me that is suspicious of authorities with broad and
vague powers nonetheless thinks we should look for a better
way.

At Bustle, Pamela Stubbart considers a

sexual assault case from Occidental College
and articulates
something that’s long bothered me about the affirmative consent
movement:
If drunk people can’t give consent
, how can they
perceive consent?

Everyone understands the intuition that a policy (and more
importantly, a real culture) of meaningful consent helps to protect
incapacitated people from non-incapacitated (or less-incapacitated)
potential assailants. But when both parties in a
sexual encounter are (by their own admissions) blackout drunk…it
doesn’t take a trained philosopher to point out the underlying
principle: if fall-down, blackout drunkenness really does
incapacitate someone morally
 and relieve them of
responsibility for their actions, for consistency’s sake that must
count both for ability to give consent and ability to
perceive it. 
The burden might be reasonably placed on the
clear initiator to prove that he or she was drunk, but in the
Occidental case, neither Jane nor John Doe denies that both were as
drunk as can be.

Fortunately, rapists do not get themselves blackout drunk and
then go out planning to rape people and “get away with it.” When
both people are that drunk,
and equally drunk, it’s usually the result of a
voluntary (if ill-advised) organic social situation. Here’s
the reality of the matter, which is kind of both good and bad news:
rape is not some kind of mutual poor decision or
drunken accident (which would make it easier to educate or engineer
away). Instead, there really are men who prey on women sexually,
often by getting them drunk.

Affirmative consent legislation suggests that misinterpreation
of consent is a major root of sexual violence. But
most rapes are committed
by repeat offenders with calculated
agendas, not students confused about whether the absense of a ‘no’
means ‘yes’.

“Given the horrors of sexual assault, the desire to do something
is powerful and totally understandable,”
writes Freddie de Boer
. “But the establishment of explicit
consent policies strikes me as a perfect example of the flawed
thinking of ‘we need to do something, this is something, therefore
we need to do this.'” He, too, sees affirmative consent laws as
promoting misunderstanding about rape: 

Rapists are those who engage in sexual behaviors against others
who have not consented to those behaviors. Whether the standard is
“no means no” or “only yes means yes,” rapists will violate that
standard, because they are rapists. Perhaps such policies will make
it easier to prosecute cases against offenders, but again—it is as
easy for someone to claim after the fact that he asked for and
received a yes as it is to claim after the fact that the other
person didn’t say no. These policies seem only to solve problems
under the assumption that many rapes are so-called “gray rapes,”
and yet anti-rape activists have long worked to insist that there
is no such thing, or that such situations are quite rare.

De Boer also sees hypocrisy in attempting to promote individual
agency and autonomy by requiring that agency be used in a very
particular way:  

One of the most important parts of the feminist project is
insisting that women own their own bodies. This has application to
abortion, where the pro-life movement seeks to take physical
control of women’s bodies away from them. And it has application to
rape. The insistence of those who work against rape is that only
the individual has the right to define appropriate and wanted
sexual practice. With the informed consent of all adult parties, no
sexual practice is illegitimate. Without that consent, no sexual
practice is permissible. This is a humane, moral standard that has
the benefit of simplicity in application and clarity in
responsibility.

But it stems first and foremost from the recognition of
individual ownership. To define the exact methods through which
individuals can request and give consent takes away that control
and turns it over to the state, or even more ludicrously, to a dean
or some academic grievance board. We should be expanding the
individual’s control over their own sexual practice, not lessening
it. And we should maintain the simplest standard that there is:
that if a person rejects a sexual advance, or is in such an
incapacitated state that they cannot rejected that advance, or is
under the power of the other party to the extent that they feel
compelled to consent, sexual contact cannot morally or legally take
place.

Yet mainstream feminists have taken up the cause of affirmative
consent on campus with vigor. It seems to epitomize critics’ charge
that these feminists are only concerned with the problems of the
privileged and middle-class. Only about one-third of Americans ever
earn a college degree. Only about six percent of Americans are
currently
enrolled in college
, and far less on traditional college
campuses. Why are the intricacies of consent for this population so
much more important than, say, finding funding to test
the backlog
of rape kits
—something that could help catch existing rapists
and protect people regardless of their educational attainment (or
incapacitation) level?

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/1x9gLeb
via IFTTT

Go Home, Consent, You’re Drunk

As calls to
“end” campus rape
reach a fever pitch, I want to highlight a
few recent pieces on sexual consent from around the web. California
is currently
considering “affirmative consent”
legislation
 that would create a separate definition
of rape for college students, one in which the absense of
“affirmative, conscious, and voluntary” (though not
necessarily verbal) agreement to proceed at each step of sexual
activity would be considered assault. 

One of the biggest areas of controversy in
the legislation
is a section concerning consent and
intoxication. “In the evaluation of complaints in the disciplinary
process,” the bill states, “it shall not be a valid excuse that the
accused believed that the complainant affirmatively consented…if
the accused knew or reasonably should have known that the
complainant was unable to consent to the sexual activity” because
of incapacitation “due to the influence of drugs, alcohol, or
medication.” Many have pointed out that this standard is awfully
vague, leaving much room for discretion in what constitutes
too incapacitated to consent.


Megan McArdle suggests
 that this is a feature, not a bug,
for those pushing affirmative-consent policies: 

Prosecutors, and regulators more generally, like vague standards
that are impossible to enforce consistently. It gives them a great
deal of discretion in whom they target and how. It is a threat that
can be wielded to force pleas to lesser crimes or other “voluntary”
actions that obviate the need for a messy trial they might
lose.

If university administrators moved to an affirmative-consent
standard by themselves, parents and alumni, particularly the
parents of sons, might complain. But if lawmakers force them to it
… well, it’s another weapon in the arsenal that allows them to
target men who, say, generate too many plausible but
impossible-to-prove complaints. The part of me that was a
potentially vulnerable college woman understands the desire. But
the part of me that is suspicious of authorities with broad and
vague powers nonetheless thinks we should look for a better
way.

At Bustle, Pamela Stubbart considers a

sexual assault case from Occidental College
and articulates
something that’s long bothered me about the affirmative consent
movement:
If drunk people can’t give consent
, how can they
perceive consent?

Everyone understands the intuition that a policy (and more
importantly, a real culture) of meaningful consent helps to protect
incapacitated people from non-incapacitated (or less-incapacitated)
potential assailants. But when both parties in a
sexual encounter are (by their own admissions) blackout drunk…it
doesn’t take a trained philosopher to point out the underlying
principle: if fall-down, blackout drunkenness really does
incapacitate someone morally
 and relieve them of
responsibility for their actions, for consistency’s sake that must
count both for ability to give consent and ability to
perceive it. 
The burden might be reasonably placed on the
clear initiator to prove that he or she was drunk, but in the
Occidental case, neither Jane nor John Doe denies that both were as
drunk as can be.

Fortunately, rapists do not get themselves blackout drunk and
then go out planning to rape people and “get away with it.” When
both people are that drunk,
and equally drunk, it’s usually the result of a
voluntary (if ill-advised) organic social situation. Here’s
the reality of the matter, which is kind of both good and bad news:
rape is not some kind of mutual poor decision or
drunken accident (which would make it easier to educate or engineer
away). Instead, there really are men who prey on women sexually,
often by getting them drunk.

Affirmative consent legislation suggests that misinterpreation
of consent is a major root of sexual violence. But
most rapes are committed
by repeat offenders with calculated
agendas, not students confused about whether the absense of a ‘no’
means ‘yes’.

“Given the horrors of sexual assault, the desire to do something
is powerful and totally understandable,”
writes Freddie de Boer
. “But the establishment of explicit
consent policies strikes me as a perfect example of the flawed
thinking of ‘we need to do something, this is something, therefore
we need to do this.'” He, too, sees affirmative consent laws as
promoting misunderstanding about rape: 

Rapists are those who engage in sexual behaviors against others
who have not consented to those behaviors. Whether the standard is
“no means no” or “only yes means yes,” rapists will violate that
standard, because they are rapists. Perhaps such policies will make
it easier to prosecute cases against offenders, but again—it is as
easy for someone to claim after the fact that he asked for and
received a yes as it is to claim after the fact that the other
person didn’t say no. These policies seem only to solve problems
under the assumption that many rapes are so-called “gray rapes,”
and yet anti-rape activists have long worked to insist that there
is no such thing, or that such situations are quite rare.

De Boer also sees hypocrisy in attempting to promote individual
agency and autonomy by requiring that agency be used in a very
particular way:  

One of the most important parts of the feminist project is
insisting that women own their own bodies. This has application to
abortion, where the pro-life movement seeks to take physical
control of women’s bodies away from them. And it has application to
rape. The insistence of those who work against rape is that only
the individual has the right to define appropriate and wanted
sexual practice. With the informed consent of all adult parties, no
sexual practice is illegitimate. Without that consent, no sexual
practice is permissible. This is a humane, moral standard that has
the benefit of simplicity in application and clarity in
responsibility.

But it stems first and foremost from the recognition of
individual ownership. To define the exact methods through which
individuals can request and give consent takes away that control
and turns it over to the state, or even more ludicrously, to a dean
or some academic grievance board. We should be expanding the
individual’s control over their own sexual practice, not lessening
it. And we should maintain the simplest standard that there is:
that if a person rejects a sexual advance, or is in such an
incapacitated state that they cannot rejected that advance, or is
under the power of the other party to the extent that they feel
compelled to consent, sexual contact cannot morally or legally take
place.

Yet mainstream feminists have taken up the cause of affirmative
consent on campus with vigor. It seems to epitomize critics’ charge
that these feminists are only concerned with the problems of the
privileged and middle-class. Only about one-third of Americans ever
earn a college degree. Only about six percent of Americans are
currently
enrolled in college
, and far less on traditional college
campuses. Why are the intricacies of consent for this population so
much more important than, say, finding funding to test
the backlog
of rape kits
—something that could help catch existing rapists
and protect people regardless of their educational attainment (or
incapacitation) level?

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/1x9gLeb
via IFTTT

Stocks Close "Not Off The Lows", Small Caps Unchanged Since Oct 2013

The Russell 2000 is -7.5% from July highs, -3% in 2014, unchanged since last October and year-over-year small-cap performance is the worst since July 2012. Despite three valiant momo-pump efforts to rally stocks to VWAP (to cover institutional sellers), they just kept falling back to bond-market-reality as US equities decoupled lower from JPY after Europe closed. The USD closed unch (after major swings intraday around Europe's close) with GBP strength and AUD/CAD weakness leading it lower on the week. Treasury yields dropped 2-3bps across the curve (down 3-5bps on the week) and all below FOMC levels (30Y -11bps). Gold is now up 0.6% on the week with oil and silver rising modestly. Copper found no bid despite a very slightly better-than-expected China PMI. Financials slipped once again (catching down closer to credit).

On the day, the European close signaled risk-off and the ubiquitous Tuesday panic buying in the last hour lifted the S&P to VWAP before a very weak close "not off the lows." Dow down 100+ pts 2 days in row for first time since June.

 

 

Not been a good year for small caps…

 

Stocks kept trying but every rally reverted to bond reality

 

USDJPY was in charge from US open to EU close then stocks fell back to AUDJPY…

 

Stocks are all red post-FOMC with Russell -3%…

 

With financials falling back and homebuilders holding losses post FOMC

 

Catching down to credit's reality…

 

Treasury yields were down again today – with 30Y now down over 10bps from pre-FOMC levels…

 

FX markets appeared quiet judging by the USD's unch close but it dumped and pumped intraday on EUR swings – AUD and CAD weakness was offset by GBP strength

 

Modest USD weakness helped gold rise and silver and oil end unch. Copper kept sliding…

 

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: BABA -13% from all-time highs…




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/ZHAmnN Tyler Durden

Stocks Close “Not Off The Lows”, Small Caps Unchanged Since Oct 2013

The Russell 2000 is -7.5% from July highs, -3% in 2014, unchanged since last October and year-over-year small-cap performance is the worst since July 2012. Despite three valiant momo-pump efforts to rally stocks to VWAP (to cover institutional sellers), they just kept falling back to bond-market-reality as US equities decoupled lower from JPY after Europe closed. The USD closed unch (after major swings intraday around Europe's close) with GBP strength and AUD/CAD weakness leading it lower on the week. Treasury yields dropped 2-3bps across the curve (down 3-5bps on the week) and all below FOMC levels (30Y -11bps). Gold is now up 0.6% on the week with oil and silver rising modestly. Copper found no bid despite a very slightly better-than-expected China PMI. Financials slipped once again (catching down closer to credit).

On the day, the European close signaled risk-off and the ubiquitous Tuesday panic buying in the last hour lifted the S&P to VWAP before a very weak close "not off the lows." Dow down 100+ pts 2 days in row for first time since June.

 

 

Not been a good year for small caps…

 

Stocks kept trying but every rally reverted to bond reality

 

USDJPY was in charge from US open to EU close then stocks fell back to AUDJPY…

 

Stocks are all red post-FOMC with Russell -3%…

 

With financials falling back and homebuilders holding losses post FOMC

 

Catching down to credit's reality…

 

Treasury yields were down again today – with 30Y now down over 10bps from pre-FOMC levels…

 

FX markets appeared quiet judging by the USD's unch close but it dumped and pumped intraday on EUR swings – AUD and CAD weakness was offset by GBP strength

 

Modest USD weakness helped gold rise and silver and oil end unch. Copper kept sliding…

 

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: BABA -13% from all-time highs…




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/ZHAmnN Tyler Durden

When The New Normal Fails: The "Problem With Traditional Economics" In A Bizarro, Centrally-Planned World

They call it the New Normal(sic) for a reason: that reason is that as a result of 6+ years of central-planning interventions in the global economy, an experiment that has grown far more monstrous than anything the USSR ever tried to do, everything is now broken: all conventional economic linkages, relationships and  correlations you learned about in university are no longer applicable or practical in a world that has taken both Keynesian and monetary theory beyond their wildest extremes.

The result is a ghoulish, macabre collage of mishmash theories applied haphazardly in hopes that something will finally stick, and if not, at least kick of the day of reckoning a little longer.

All of that will fail, and, just as the Austrian economists predicted from day one, the entire house of cards will come crashing down in a heap of record credit. Yes, it could have been different, had the people in charge taken the correct, but difficult decision when Lehman failed, and purged the system of its credit excesses. But they didn’t, as that would have wiped out trillions in equity value where the bulk of the “wealth” and net worth of the legacy status quo is located.

So they kicked the can.

For all those sick and tired of watching the grotesque pantomime in which only the rich get richer, while everyone else is ever more impoverished, we have good news – the experiment is coming to an end. Only it is not us postulating that the entire “modern” economic system is on its last breath – here are seven slides from Citi explaining the very much intractable “problems with traditional economics“, and why the economic Titanic, floating on an ocean of central bank liquidity, is approaching the proverbial iceberg.

So, without further ado, here is everything that is broken with the traditional economic system as applied in today’s bizarro world.

* * *

At the top level, the problem reduces to some quite simple axioms: savings, assets = liabilities, credit creation, and the inability to do so when there is simply too much debt already.

When the disconnect between theory and reality detailed above manifests itself in the real world, people finally start asking questions, such as “who really creates money.” They are stunned when they learn the answer, an answer which also explains why the created credit flows into assets and not into the broader economy.

Because where in theory monetary injection should lead to benign economic inflation and GDP growth…

… Instead the $5 trillion+ in excess reserves promptly found their way into the “other” inflation: asset prices, such as bonds and stocks, such as a 10 Year at 2.5%, such as the S&P at 2,000.

But why is inflation rushing into assets and not labor, wages, and broad prices levels? Simple: as Citi says, “credit will be created wherever it sees the most attractive return”, or in the case of the New Normal, stock buybacks for example, if only for equity holders.

So since credit won’t go where it should, the Fed thinks it can nudge it, and yet it fails as iteration after iteration of the “same old” is tried (QE1, QE2, QE3, soon QE4, etc) and assets rise to ever higher levels, the economy remains worse than ever, and the central planners are increasingly without options if and when a true shock to the system occurs. As Citi warns “wearing lifejackets doesn’t stop the bath overflowing”

End result: more of the same in a closed loop, as the Keynesians and the monetarists say the only thing they can say when all their efforts fail: let’s do it again, but this time MORE!… or, in the words of Citi’s Matt King, “You can’t unblock the plughole by pouring in more water.” But the Fed sure can and will try.

And, as Citi concludes, if you leave the taps on even more, nothing happens to the economy, “but it does make financial assets float.”

Translation: whereas in 2007 the mantra was “as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance“, the maxim of the New (ab)normal should probably be: “as long as the water is flowing, one has to get down and swim.

Just hope you have a lifejacket on when, to paraphrase T.S. Eliot, rational voices finally wake us, and we drown.




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1r5woky Tyler Durden

When The New Normal Fails: The “Problem With Traditional Economics” In A Bizarro, Centrally-Planned World

They call it the New Normal(sic) for a reason: that reason is that as a result of 6+ years of central-planning interventions in the global economy, an experiment that has grown far more monstrous than anything the USSR ever tried to do, everything is now broken: all conventional economic linkages, relationships and  correlations you learned about in university are no longer applicable or practical in a world that has taken both Keynesian and monetary theory beyond their wildest extremes.

The result is a ghoulish, macabre collage of mishmash theories applied haphazardly in hopes that something will finally stick, and if not, at least kick of the day of reckoning a little longer.

All of that will fail, and, just as the Austrian economists predicted from day one, the entire house of cards will come crashing down in a heap of record credit. Yes, it could have been different, had the people in charge taken the correct, but difficult decision when Lehman failed, and purged the system of its credit excesses. But they didn’t, as that would have wiped out trillions in equity value where the bulk of the “wealth” and net worth of the legacy status quo is located.

So they kicked the can.

For all those sick and tired of watching the grotesque pantomime in which only the rich get richer, while everyone else is ever more impoverished, we have good news – the experiment is coming to an end. Only it is not us postulating that the entire “modern” economic system is on its last breath – here are seven slides from Citi explaining the very much intractable “problems with traditional economics“, and why the economic Titanic, floating on an ocean of central bank liquidity, is approaching the proverbial iceberg.

So, without further ado, here is everything that is broken with the traditional economic system as applied in today’s bizarro world.

* * *

At the top level, the problem reduces to some quite simple axioms: savings, assets = liabilities, credit creation, and the inability to do so when there is simply too much debt already.

When the disconnect between theory and reality detailed above manifests itself in the real world, people finally start asking questions, such as “who really creates money.” They are stunned when they learn the answer, an answer which also explains why the created credit flows into assets and not into the broader economy.

Because where in theory monetary injection should lead to benign economic inflation and GDP growth…

… Instead the $5 trillion+ in excess reserves promptly found their way into the “other” inflation: asset prices, such as bonds and stocks, such as a 10 Year at 2.5%, such as the S&P at 2,000.

But why is inflation rushing into assets and not labor, wages, and broad prices levels? Simple: as Citi says, “credit will be created wherever it sees the most attractive return”, or in the case of the New Normal, stock buybacks for example, if only for equity holders.

So since credit won’t go where it should, the Fed thinks it can nudge it, and yet it fails as iteration after iteration of the “same old” is tried (QE1, QE2, QE3, soon QE4, etc) and assets rise to ever higher levels, the economy remains worse than ever, and the central planners are increasingly without options if and when a true shock to the system occurs. As Citi warns “wearing lifejackets doesn’t stop the bath overflowing”

End result: more of the same in a closed loop, as the Keynesians and the monetarists say the only thing they can say when all their efforts fail: let’s do it again, but this time MORE!… or, in the words of Citi’s Matt King, “You can’t unblock the plughole by pouring in more water.” But the Fed sure can and will try.

And, as Citi concludes, if you leave the taps on even more, nothing happens to the economy, “but it does make financial assets float.”

Translation: whereas in 2007 the mantra was “as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance“, the maxim of the New (ab)normal should probably be: “as long as the water is flowing, one has to get down and swim.

Just hope you have a lifejacket on when, to paraphrase T.S. Eliot, rational voices finally wake us, and we drown.




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1r5woky Tyler Durden

Pentagon Official on ISIS Bombing Campaign: "I would think in terms of years."

When
President Obama first announced that he had authorized a new round
of airstrikes in Iraq, he attempted to reassure the public that the
attacks would not lead to another war.

“I know that many of you are rightly concerned about any
American military action in Iraq,” he
said
, “even limited strikes like these. I understand that.” He
offered a reminder that he ran for office in part to end the war in
Iraq. And he said he would not let a new war begin. 

“As Commander-in-Chief, I will not allow the United States to be
dragged into fighting another war in Iraq.” American forces would
play a support role only, “because there’s no American military
solution to the larger crisis in Iraq.” 

So much for “limited strikes.” The initial, narrowly targeted
campaign, a “humanitarian” mission to save a small group of people
trapped on a mountain in Iraq, according to that first speech,
quickly turned into a larger bombing campaign against militants in
Iraq and, as of last night, in Syria too. 

And Pentagon officials are saying that it’s not going end any
time soon. 

Via
The Hill
:

“Last night’s strikes are the beginning of a credible and
sustainable persistent campaign to degrade and ultimately destroy”
ISIS, Army Lt. Gen. Bill Mayville told reporters.

“I would think of it in terms of years,” he added about the
length of the expected campaign against ISIS.

That sure didn’t take long. 

Really, this isn’t that surprising, considering that Obama has
already suggested the strikes could be part of an
extended military effort. But it is revealing. 

If you want to understand why Obama’s foreign policy job
approval ratings are falling, why people say they don’t trust the
executive branch, and why critics are suggesting that the Obama
administration can’t really be believed when officials promise that
ground troops won’t be part of the equation, then all you need to
do is take a look at the difference between what’s been promised
regarding the military operation against ISIS and what’s actually
happened in a space of less than two months.

The initial justification for strikes—a supposedly limited,
humanitarian mission to help a small group of desperate people on a
single mountain—turned out almost immediately to be a
pretext for a much larger effort to attack, degrade, and destroy
ISIS militants in two different countries, an effort that is now
projected to last years. All the while, the administration insists
that it’s not actually a “combat mission,” as if dropping bombs and
shooting missiles on hundreds of occasions, with the intention of
doing it hundreds more times, is somehow not really
combat. 

The implicit message of Obama’s speech last month was that you
could trust him, because he was war-weary too. The practical
message of the last two months, however, is that Obama is taking
the nation to war despite his campaign promises to the contrary,
and that he can’t be trusted at all. 

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/1smMyao
via IFTTT

Pentagon Official on ISIS Bombing Campaign: “I would think in terms of years.”

When
President Obama first announced that he had authorized a new round
of airstrikes in Iraq, he attempted to reassure the public that the
attacks would not lead to another war.

“I know that many of you are rightly concerned about any
American military action in Iraq,” he
said
, “even limited strikes like these. I understand that.” He
offered a reminder that he ran for office in part to end the war in
Iraq. And he said he would not let a new war begin. 

“As Commander-in-Chief, I will not allow the United States to be
dragged into fighting another war in Iraq.” American forces would
play a support role only, “because there’s no American military
solution to the larger crisis in Iraq.” 

So much for “limited strikes.” The initial, narrowly targeted
campaign, a “humanitarian” mission to save a small group of people
trapped on a mountain in Iraq, according to that first speech,
quickly turned into a larger bombing campaign against militants in
Iraq and, as of last night, in Syria too. 

And Pentagon officials are saying that it’s not going end any
time soon. 

Via
The Hill
:

“Last night’s strikes are the beginning of a credible and
sustainable persistent campaign to degrade and ultimately destroy”
ISIS, Army Lt. Gen. Bill Mayville told reporters.

“I would think of it in terms of years,” he added about the
length of the expected campaign against ISIS.

That sure didn’t take long. 

Really, this isn’t that surprising, considering that Obama has
already suggested the strikes could be part of an
extended military effort. But it is revealing. 

If you want to understand why Obama’s foreign policy job
approval ratings are falling, why people say they don’t trust the
executive branch, and why critics are suggesting that the Obama
administration can’t really be believed when officials promise that
ground troops won’t be part of the equation, then all you need to
do is take a look at the difference between what’s been promised
regarding the military operation against ISIS and what’s actually
happened in a space of less than two months.

The initial justification for strikes—a supposedly limited,
humanitarian mission to help a small group of desperate people on a
single mountain—turned out almost immediately to be a
pretext for a much larger effort to attack, degrade, and destroy
ISIS militants in two different countries, an effort that is now
projected to last years. All the while, the administration insists
that it’s not actually a “combat mission,” as if dropping bombs and
shooting missiles on hundreds of occasions, with the intention of
doing it hundreds more times, is somehow not really
combat. 

The implicit message of Obama’s speech last month was that you
could trust him, because he was war-weary too. The practical
message of the last two months, however, is that Obama is taking
the nation to war despite his campaign promises to the contrary,
and that he can’t be trusted at all. 

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Germany's Largest Export: Hypocrisy?

Authored by Josef Joffe, originally posted Op-Ed via Reuters,

A MG3 automatic weapon that is part of a German military aid shipment for Kurdish forces in Northern Iraq is on display for the media at a storage facility of the Bundeswehr armed forces in Waren 

Who is the world’s No. 3 arms exporter, after the United States and Russia? Surprise. It is Germany, a country bound by law to supply only allies and peaceable folks like (neutral) Switzerland or Sweden. Off limits are “areas of tension” — bad neighborhoods that actually need the stuff.

Yet somehow, Israel and Saudi Arabia, both living in the world’s powder keg, are among Germany’s best customers. So are Algeria, Qatar and  the United Arab Emirates.

What doesn’t go directly finds its way on the international arms bazaar. Consider, no self-respecting drug czar — Russian or Mexican — would flaunt a Czech-made “Skorpion.” It has to be a Heckler & Koch MP-5, also much beloved by U.S. Special Operations forces.

Pistol of a German Bundeswehr army soldier with the 3rd company of the Quick Reaction Force QRF is pictured in a combat outpost in the outskirts of Kunduz

But never, ever has Germany delivered to nonstate forces. This month marks a profound break with that tradition. Germany has agreed to send weapons to the Kurdish Workers’ Party, or PKK, a military and political group in northern Iraq, with the bulk of more sophisticated arms going to the peshmerga forces. Not exactly buddies, these two outfits are fighting the Islamic State.

The Kurdish Workers’ Party is due to receive 8,000 G3 assault rifles — almost museum pieces — that were issued to the German armed forces in 1959. The peshmerga forces get more recent hardware: 8,000 G36, the current rifle of the German army. Plus 30 antitank systems with 500 missiles. Add in a few tens of shoulder-held antitank rockets, 40 machine guns and 10,000 hand grenades. The package is worth about $90 million.

Not much compared to those modern U.S. weapons — tanks, artillery — that Islamic State militants have amassed by plundering Iraqi depots. But it is still a dramatic break with precedent.

Chalk it up to Islamic State. Every time this killer brigade murders a Western hostage, it enlarges the U.S.-led coalition. Britain, for example, refused to bomb along in Syria, making President Barack Obama desist. Now its combat planes will join the battle.

Will German troops do so, too? Don’t hold your breath.

German Bundeswehr army soldier of the ISAF mans his weapon atop of a Fuchs APC camp before leaving for a night mission in Kunduz

Consider the modest arms deliveries as a substitute for intervention — a time-honored tradition of nations that would rather not march and fight. Germany has flown along over Serbia during the Bosnia wars, and it has dispatched ground troops to Afghanistan. But compared to the fierce German onslaughts in World War One and Two, today’s Germany is as aggressive as a pussycat.

Evidently, losing two wars, and losing them big, does not favor a warrior culture. Today, Germans are as pacific as the Swedes — the scourge of Europe in the 17th century.

But it isn’t all about remorse and redemption. Far weightier is the fact that postwar West Germany could enjoy a comfortable existence under the U.S. strategic umbrella and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies. At the height of the Cold War, 300, 000 U.S. troops were deployed to Western Europe, together with thousands of tactical nuclear weapons. Half a dozen other nations were also part of the “forward defense” close to the Iron Curtain that cut Germany into East and West.

West Germany, the “Federal Republic,” could enjoy the fruits of peace Made in U.S.A. It was safety on the cheap. Whereas the United States, Britain and France devoted from 5 percent to 6 percent of gross domestic product to defense, the Germans could get away with less than 3 percent. Today, Germany is heading toward 1.3 percent.

The upshot is this: Even if the Germans wanted to intervene in Iraq, they could not. Their ground troops have shrunk to 60,000. They do not have the projection forces: ships, tankers, air transport. They don’t have space-based  surveillance systems, nor the special forces that  are replacing classical armies in the theater – as Washington demonstrates. Germany does still have two squadrons each of “Tornado” and “Typhoon” fighter/ground-attack aircraft. These, however, would have to be refueled by U.S. tankers.

Given how quickly the NATO allies ran out bombs in Libya, the United States would also have stand ready to replenish German stocks of airborne precision munitions. Yet the Germans could theoretically join the British and French on bombing missions against Islamic State fighters. Right now, that is a no-no, so arms deliveries are acting as a nice substitute.

But remember the rule: Islamic State has turned out to be the West’s best coalition builder. Secretary of State John Kerry has had a reasonably easy time to harness the willing.

As the most recent murder of a British aid worker shows, Islamic State is unlikely to end this horror soon. It is part of the plan. Assume, for example, a German is slaughtered on YouTube. Though the German public is now strongly anti-involvement, they may recoil in righteous anger. Such grisly events turn moods and long-held convictions.

If so, German bombs might follow the surplus weapons into Iraq.




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1mLrmsB Tyler Durden

Germany’s Largest Export: Hypocrisy?

Authored by Josef Joffe, originally posted Op-Ed via Reuters,

A MG3 automatic weapon that is part of a German military aid shipment for Kurdish forces in Northern Iraq is on display for the media at a storage facility of the Bundeswehr armed forces in Waren 

Who is the world’s No. 3 arms exporter, after the United States and Russia? Surprise. It is Germany, a country bound by law to supply only allies and peaceable folks like (neutral) Switzerland or Sweden. Off limits are “areas of tension” — bad neighborhoods that actually need the stuff.

Yet somehow, Israel and Saudi Arabia, both living in the world’s powder keg, are among Germany’s best customers. So are Algeria, Qatar and  the United Arab Emirates.

What doesn’t go directly finds its way on the international arms bazaar. Consider, no self-respecting drug czar — Russian or Mexican — would flaunt a Czech-made “Skorpion.” It has to be a Heckler & Koch MP-5, also much beloved by U.S. Special Operations forces.

Pistol of a German Bundeswehr army soldier with the 3rd company of the Quick Reaction Force QRF is pictured in a combat outpost in the outskirts of Kunduz

But never, ever has Germany delivered to nonstate forces. This month marks a profound break with that tradition. Germany has agreed to send weapons to the Kurdish Workers’ Party, or PKK, a military and political group in northern Iraq, with the bulk of more sophisticated arms going to the peshmerga forces. Not exactly buddies, these two outfits are fighting the Islamic State.

The Kurdish Workers’ Party is due to receive 8,000 G3 assault rifles — almost museum pieces — that were issued to the German armed forces in 1959. The peshmerga forces get more recent hardware: 8,000 G36, the current rifle of the German army. Plus 30 antitank systems with 500 missiles. Add in a few tens of shoulder-held antitank rockets, 40 machine guns and 10,000 hand grenades. The package is worth about $90 million.

Not much compared to those modern U.S. weapons — tanks, artillery — that Islamic State militants have amassed by plundering Iraqi depots. But it is still a dramatic break with precedent.

Chalk it up to Islamic State. Every time this killer brigade murders a Western hostage, it enlarges the U.S.-led coalition. Britain, for example, refused to bomb along in Syria, making President Barack Obama desist. Now its combat planes will join the battle.

Will German troops do so, too? Don’t hold your breath.

German Bundeswehr army soldier of the ISAF mans his weapon atop of a Fuchs APC camp before leaving for a night mission in Kunduz

Consider the modest arms deliveries as a substitute for intervention — a time-honored tradition of nations that would rather not march and fight. Germany has flown along over Serbia during the Bosnia wars, and it has dispatched ground troops to Afghanistan. But compared to the fierce German onslaughts in World War One and Two, today’s Germany is as aggressive as a pussycat.

Evidently, losing two wars, and losing them big, does not favor a warrior culture. Today, Germans are as pacific as the Swedes — the scourge of Europe in the 17th century.

But it isn’t all about remorse and redemption. Far weightier is the fact that postwar West Germany could enjoy a comfortable existence under the U.S. strategic umbrella and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies. At the height of the Cold War, 300, 000 U.S. troops were deployed to Western Europe, together with thousands of tactical nuclear weapons. Half a dozen other nations were also part of the “forward defense” close to the Iron Curtain that cut Germany into East and West.

West Germany, the “Federal Republic,” could enjoy the fruits of peace Made in U.S.A. It was safety on the cheap. Whereas the United States, Britain and France devoted from 5 percent to 6 percent of gross domestic product to defense, the Germans could get away with less than 3 percent. Today, Germany is heading toward 1.3 percent.

The upshot is this: Even if the Germans wanted to intervene in Iraq, they could not. Their ground troops have shrunk to 60,000. They do not have the projection forces: ships, tankers, air transport. They don’t have space-based  surveillance systems, nor the special forces that  are replacing classical armies in the theater – as Washington demonstrates. Germany does still have two squadrons each of “Tornado” and “Typhoon” fighter/ground-attack aircraft. These, however, would have to be refueled by U.S. tankers.

Given how quickly the NATO allies ran out bombs in Libya, the United States would also have stand ready to replenish German stocks of airborne precision munitions. Yet the Germans could theoretically join the British and French on bombing missions against Islamic State fighters. Right now, that is a no-no, so arms deliveries are acting as a nice substitute.

But remember the rule: Islamic State has turned out to be the West’s best coalition builder. Secretary of State John Kerry has had a reasonably easy time to harness the willing.

As the most recent murder of a British aid worker shows, Islamic State is unlikely to end this horror soon. It is part of the plan. Assume, for example, a German is slaughtered on YouTube. Though the German public is now strongly anti-involvement, they may recoil in righteous anger. Such grisly events turn moods and long-held convictions.

If so, German bombs might follow the surplus weapons into Iraq.




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1mLrmsB Tyler Durden