Apple Plunge Drags Entire Nasdaq Lower By 60 Points

With AAPL trading with a $95 handle after-hours (down over $40 billion in market cap), the blowback of the demise of this “no brainer” is echoing through the once impregnable walls of Nasdaq futures which are now down over 60 points from the cash close…back to one-month lows.

AAPL back to a $95 handle…

 

Smashing Nasdaq down over 60 points…

 

Back to one-month lows…

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Life Is Good In The Corner Suite: Highest-Paid CEOs See Pay Jump Despite Dismal Performance

As most Americans have resigned themselves to the fact that merit increases are a thing of the past, and yearly reviews will only yield a pat on the back and new goals for the upcoming year, life is still good in the corner suite. CEO's are still getting raises, but don't be alarmed, you'll feel that trickle down effect any minute now.

In a study performed by Equilar which looks at the largest U.S. companies in terms of revenue, the average pay for CEO's of these firms was $15.5 million, and the median pay was $14.5 million, up 3% from 2015.

Oracle's Mark Hurd (see kids, you too can survive sex scandals, resign for lack of integrity and good judgement, and still make more than any other CEO in the U.S.) and Safra A. Catz top the list, tied at $53.2 million.

Without further delay, here are the highest paid CEO's in 2015

Incidentally, the top paid Co-CEO tandem of Mark Hurd and Safra Catz significantly under performed the S&P, as did Fox's Rupert Murdoch and Morgan Stanley's James Gorman.

We're sure that the boards of all of these companies, specifically ones that are under-performing, will propose executive pay changes when the economy grinds to a halt in 2016 and cost cuts are implemented to hold earnings estimates.

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Apple Tumbles After Missing Sales And Earnings, Guides Below Lowest Estimate

First it was Twitter, now it is consumer tech titan AAPL's turn to tumble. For those pressed for time, here is the breakdown:

  • APPLE Q2 REVENUE $51.56BN, EST 251.97BN
  • APPLE Q2 EPS $1.90, EST $2.00
  • APPLE SEES 3Q REV. $41B-$43B, EST. $47.4B
  • APPLE SOLD 51.2M IPHONES IN 2Q, EST. 50.7M
  • APPLE SOLD 4.03M MACS IN 2Q, EST. 4.6M
  • APPLE SOLD 10.3M IPADS IN 2Q, EST. 9.4M
  • APPLE 2Q IPHONE ASP $641.83, EST. $651
  • APPLE BOOSTS QTR DIV TO 57C-SHR FROM 52C, EST. 57C
  • APPLE INCREASED SHARE REPURCHASE AUTHORIZATION TO $175B

And now the details:

Moments ago AAPL reported Q2 EPS of $1.90, missing expectations of $2.00 on revenue of $50.56BN which not only plunged by 13% from ayear ago, but also significantly missed expectations of $52 Billion. Perhaps the biggest driver for this was both the sequential and annual plunge in Chinese sales, which dropped to $12.5 billion from $16.8 billion a year ago.

 

And while Apple beat expectations on iPhone sales, selling 51.2 million units in the quarter, above the 50.7 million expected, if still 16% lower than a year ago, it did so on both a lower than expected margin of 39.4%, and lower iPhone ASPs, which dropped to $641.8 below the $651 estimate.

 

Worse, the company's guidance for Q3 revenues was absolutely abysmal, and now sees only $41-$43BN in Q3 sales, well below not only the median estimate of $47.35bn but below the lowest sellside estimate of $43.95bn.

But the scariest chart is probably the one showing the sharp slow down in sales across virtually all geographies.

 

For those curious about AAPL's crash, the gross cash rose once again to a new record high…

 

… but net cash after deducting AAPL's rapidly rising debt shows that it is virtually unchanged for 3 years:

 

According to Tim Cook, "our team executed extremely well in the face of strong macroeconomic headwinds. We are very happy with the continued strong growth in revenue from Services, thanks to the incredible strength of the Apple ecosystem and our growing base of over one billion active devices.”

Shareholders do not appear to share his pleasure because more troubling was the CFO commentary according to whom what was slowing iPhone sales was the slowness to upgrade.

So is the AAPL magic gone?

As of this moment investors says yes, as AAPL tumbles 6% after hours, and that despite AAPL announcing that the Board has increased its share repurchase authorization to $175 billion from the $140 billion level announced last year.It also added that it will continue to access domestic and international debt markets to fund shareholder returns, adding that it has authorized boost of $50b to holder return plan to a total of $250b by end of March 2018.

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Crude Extends Gains After Surprise Inventory Draw

With expectations for a 1.75m barrel build, API shocked by reporting a 1.1m inventory draw sending WTI crude above $44.50 – running stops from last week’s highs. Gasoline (-400k) and Distillates (-1.02m) also saw draws. Cushing, however, after recent declines from pipeline closures, saw a 1.9m barrel build.

 

 

Spiking crude above last week’s highs…

 

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“Realistic” Chance Americans Could Find Out Truth About 9/11 By June Of 2016

Submitted by Lauren McCauley via TheAntiMedia.org,

Confidential and deeply controversial documents said to reveal the support network behind the 9/11 hijackers may soon be made public, according to the Obama administration’s head of national intelligence.

James Clapper, who is charged with overseeing the declassification, reportedly said that it is “realistic” that the 28-page section of the 9/11 Commission Report would be available as early as June.

“We are in the position of trying to coordinate interagency position on the declassification of the 28 pages,” he told attendees of an event sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor, The Hill reported on Monday.

Clapper’s statement followed similar remarks made Sunday by Sen. Bob Graham (R-Fla.), who was co-chairman of the bipartisan congressional inquiry into the 9/11 attack. Graham and others familiar with the report have alleged that the report contains damning information about U.S. ally Saudi Arabia.

“To me, the most important unanswered question of 9/11 is did these 19 people conduct this very sophisticated plot alone, or were they supported?” Graham said on NBC‘s “Meet the Press.”

 

“I think it’s implausible to think that people who couldn’t speak English, had never been in the United States before, as a group were not well-educated could have done that. So who was the most likely entity to have provided them that support?” he continued.

 

“And I think all the evidence points to Saudi Arabia. We know that Saudi Arabia started al-Qaida. It was a creation of Saudi Arabia.”

The pending declassification comes amid an increasingly tumultuous standoff between the Obama administration and a coalition of congressional lawmakers, who have introduced a bill that would allow victims of 9/11 and other U.S.-based terrorist attacks to sue sovereign nations that supply material or other support for such violence.

U.S. President Barack Obama has signaled that he would veto the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act while the Gulf monarchy has threatened to sell off hundreds of billions of dollars worth of American assets should the legislation go through.

Observers have suggested that the White House’s resistance to the bill stems from a concern that, if passed, the United States would in turn face legal action for its own acts of terrorism, such as drone strikes.

Both Democratic presidential contenders Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton have expressed support for the 9/11 bill, while the Vermont senator has specifically called on Obama to declassify the 28 pages “as soon as possible.”

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Primaries Tonight, Millennials Reject Capitalism, Another Mattress Girl Lawsuit: P.M. Links

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Twitter Crashes After Slashing Revenue Forecast

Despite all eyes on the slighlty better than expected MAUs (310m vs 308m exp.), Twitter is being clubbed like a baby seal after-hours as it has slashed Q2 revenue:

  • *TWITTER SEES 2Q REV. $590M TO $610M, EST. $677.1M

Most crucially, Twitter explains, “Revenue came in at the low end of our guidance range because brand marketers did not increase spend as quickly as expected in the first quarter.” Not exactly boding well for the overalll ad spend market.

Some other key points from the CEO:

We see a clear opportunity to increase our share of brand budgets over time. We have a strong product roadmap designed to tap into incremental brand-oriented online video budgets, and will deliver additional features for advertisers later this year — including more detailed demographic targeting and verification, and reach and frequency planning and purchasing.

The market sadly is not seeing it, and instead is looking at the following: the company’s poor guidance which sees Revenue next quarter to be about 10% below consensus estimate of $677.

OUTLOOK For Q2, we expect:

  • Revenue to be in the range of $590 to $610 million;
  • Adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $145 to $155 million;
  • Stock-based compensation expense to be in the range of $165 to $175 million;
  • GAAP share count to be in the range of 700 to 705 million shares;
  • Non-GAAP share count to be in the range of 710 to 720 million shares.

For FY 2016, we expect:

  • Capital expenditures to be $300 to $425 million;
  • Adjusted EBITDA margin in the range of 25-27%.

Note that our outlook for Q2 and full year of 2016 reflects foreign exchange rates as of April 15, 2016.

Investors are not happy:

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FANGs Slump Despite Crude Pump As China Commodity Carnage Continues

Nothing to see here, move along…China commodity carnage, US data dismal, and a Fed meeting that has to err on the side of hawkishness…

 

The commodity carnage in China continued overnight…

 

But for the 4th day in a row, authorities intervened to support Chinese stocks…

 

And that provided some hope oveernight into the US open…

 

On the day – very mixed – Nasdaq underperformed but Trannies & Small Caps squeezed higher…Dow/S&P Unch…

 

Once again, VIX was smashed into the close in an effort to maintain Dow 18,000…BUT FAILED

 

Another day, another short squeeze…lifts Trannies & Small Caps

 

AAPL was chaotic today into earnings…

 

FANGs had their worst 3-day run in almost 3 months, back to 6-week lows…

 

Treasury yields rose for the 2nd day heading into The Fed meeting, with a wider range today…

 

The USD Index drifted lower once again… (though notably JPY weakened also)…

 

Copper drifted lower – dragged by the industrial metal collapse in Chinas but crude and PMs all rallied on the weaker dollar…

 

Crude algos panic-big oil prices above $44, running yesterday's high stops ahead of tonight's API report…

 

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: Macro madness…

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“Cynical, Fiction Peddlers”? Americans’ Economic Confidence Tumbles To 8-Month Lows

Confirming The Conference Board’s earlier disappointment, it appears the American public is chock-full of “cynics” and “fiction-peddlers” as Gallup reports Americans’ confidence in the U.S. economy reached its lowest weekly level so far in 2016.

The latest figure represents a four-point drop from the previous week’s average. The last time Gallup found a lower weekly score was in August 2015.

 

The latest figure is not markedly lower than the -11 weekly index score average recorded so far in 2016, but it is part of a decline that started in late March. Pessimism has increased despite a strong stock market in recent weeks and a persistent low unemployment rate. However, there have been reports of weak retail sales and expectations of low first quarter economic growth. Gas prices have also started to rise, although they remain well below where they were for most of the past decade. Finally, consistent statements from presidential candidates about how they would fix the U.S. economy if elected might play a part in keeping Americans’ economic optimism at lower levels.

One year ago, Americans were significantly more upbeat about the economy, as the index flirted with positive territory. But recent scores are still higher than most of the low figures Gallup recorded between 2008 and the fall of 2012.

Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index is the average of two components: how Americans rate current economic conditions and whether they feel the economy is improving or getting worse.

And as the following chart shows, it is “hope” that is collapsing…

 

35% of U.S. adults saying the economy is “getting better” and 60% saying it is “getting worse.”

This is the lowest score for this component since late August 2015, when the stock market plummeted over concerns about the Chinese economy.

Source: Gallup

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FBI Won’t (or Can’t) Say How It Broke Into Terrorist’s IPhone

iPhoneThe FBI doesn’t know how the third party tech folks it hired to break into San Bernardino terrorist Syed Farook’s iPhone succeeded. Therefore, it says it can’t inform Apple how it was done to alert them of a security risk potentially affecting its customers. Or so the FBI says.

That’s the breaking news from the Wall Street Journal this afternoon. There was a big question mark as to whether, as is typical policy, the federal government would inform a company about a security risk in its software. Apple, we all know, resisted the FBI’s efforts to try to force it to develop code to assist officials in breaking its own security. Right before a planned court confrontation, the FBI withdrew its demands because it found another company (an unidentified third party) who was able to figure out how to bypass the phone’s security (at significant expense).

Sources told the Wall Street Journal that it will tell the White House that it doesn’t know how the tool used to break into the iPhone worked—that it “knows so little” that there’s no point in even having a review process to determine whether the information should be passed along to Apple.

As a result, this means that American customers who have phones models similar to Farook’s have a security vulnerability that might not be fixable, unless Apple is informed or figures it out on its own (one suspects they’re probably working on it).

Should we actually believe the FBI when they say they don’t know how the tool works? It’s easy to be skeptical of their honesty given how pettily the Department of Justice responded to Apple’s attempts to defend itself in court, dismissing the company’s very real need to protect the security of its customers as a “marketing” concern. But a post by Susan Landau at the Lawfare blog suggests that they may well be telling the truth, and that itself is a cause for concern. The FBI is trying to terrify us all about the threat of terrorists and child predators “going dark,” but it doesn’t seem to be making budget recommendations that reflect this fear:

The FBI is going dark, but the cause is not encryption; it is the Bureau’s approach to investigations involving encryption and other types of anonymizing tools. Consider the FBI’s 2017 budget request. It includes a requested increase of $38.3 million and 0 positions for “challenges related to encryption, mobility, anonymization, and more”; current services are at “39 positions (11 agents) and $31 million.” This explains the FBI’s problem. Despite six years of publicly pressing for laws to control encryption’s deployment, the FBI staffing is at a remarkably low level, one that fits the attack profile of quite a few years ago, not the present time. By contrast, the 2017 request for additional physical surveillance capabilities is for $8.2 million and 36 positions (18 agents); this request is on top of the current 1770 positions (549 agents) and $297.8 million budget.

(The 2017 FBI budget request also includes a separate cyber component with 1,753 positions (897 agents)  along with a current budget of $541.4 million, and a 2017 request of $85.1 million and 0 positions. While the cyber component interacts with the Going Dark program and small amounts of funds are fungible, the cyber effort does not substitute for the missing Going Dark capabilities.)

If that’s how the FBI is prioritizing spending, then no wonder they are so hot to draft tech companies to do the work for them.

Read more here.

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