Neil Gorsuch: Everything you need to know. Q&A with Randy Barnett (New at Reason)

Randy Barnett sat down with Reason TV to weigh in on Trump’s nomination of Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme court.

Barnett said he was cautiously optimistic about Gorsuch. “Of all the people on [Trump’s] list, he was certainly near the top,” Barnett said.

He said Gorsuch seems to be well read, smart, and a staunch defender of originalism like Justice Scalia.

“There’s the old ‘framers intent,’ which people say if they don’t know what they’re talking about,” Barnett said. “Gorusch says ‘original public meaning,’ which means he knows what he’s talking about.”

Barnett said he believes the addition of Gorsuch to the Supreme court could have a significant impact on whether or not a reinterpretation of abortion rights is in the future.

“Roe v. Wade is not settled,” Barnett said. “Could [a decision] happen? I think it could… in the sense that it’s been contested since it was decided. As a result I can seem them undoing it and sending it back to the states.”

Edited by Mark McDaniel. Cameras by Josh Swain and McDaniel. Music by Simon Mathewson.

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Leaked Military Official Comments Claim Trump’s First Counter-Terror Op Was “Undertaken Without Sufficient Intel… Backup Prep”

President Trump’s first counter-terrorism operation, that ended in the death of U.S. Navy SEAL William “Ryan” Owens, was, Reuters reports according to military officials, undertaken without sufficient intelligence, ground support or adequate backup preparations.

U.S. Navy SEAL William “Ryan” Owens was killed in the raid on a branch of al Qaeda, also known as AQAP, in al Bayda province, which the Pentagon said also killed 14 militants. However, medics at the scene said about 30 people, including 10 women and children, were killed.

Reuters reports that U.S. Central Command said in a statement that an investigating team had “concluded regrettably that civilian non-combatants were likely killed” during Sunday’s raid. It said children may have been among the casualties.

 Central Command said its assessment “seeks to determine if there were any still-undetected civilian casualties in the ferocious firefight.”

However, in what appears yet another leak, Reuters adds that…

U.S. military officials told Reuters that Trump approved his first covert counterterrorism operation without sufficient intelligence, ground support or adequate backup preparations.

 

As a result, three officials said, the attacking SEAL team found itself dropping onto a reinforced al Qaeda base defended by landmines, snipers, and a larger than expected contingent of heavily armed Islamist extremists.

 

The Pentagon directed queries about the officials’ characterization of the raid to U.S. Central Command, which pointed only to its statement on Wednesday.

 

“CENTCOM asks for operations we believe have a good chance for success and when we ask for authorization we certainly believe there is a chance of successful operations based on our planning,” CENTCOM spokesman Colonel John Thomas said.

 

“Any operation where you are going to put operators on the ground has inherent risks,” he said.

The U.S. officials said the extremists’ base had been identified as a target before the Obama administration left office on Jan. 20, but then-President Barack Obama held off approving a raid ahead of his departure.

One of the three U.S. officials said on-the-ground surveillance of the compound was “minimal, at best.”

 

“The decision was made … to leave it to the incoming administration, partly in the hope that more and better intelligence could be collected,” that official said.

*  *  *
It appears President Trump has ‘leaks’ everywhere.

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As Brazil Unemployment Hits Record High, Rio’s Murder Rate Soars

With Brazil stuck in what may be its worst depression on record, it will surprise nobody that the homicide rate in Rio de Janeiro climbed by 20% in 2016 from the previous year, as violence soared in the Brazilian metropolis amid rising unemployment and sharp cuts in public security budgets. Worse even than Chicago, state security statistics released on Wednesday and cited by Reuters showed that 5,033 people were murdered in Rio during the year, up from 4,200 in 2015.

The figures confirm growing concerns in Rio, a city and surrounding state home to more than 16 million people, that hard-won gains in security over the past decade are quickly backsliding along with Brazil’s economy, now in its worst recession on record.

 

Despite a massive deployment of more than 80,000 soldiers and police officers who ensured public order when the city hosted the Olympic Games in August, Rio and its suburbs suffered from an increase in violence throughout much of the rest of the year.

The increase in violence was particularly sharp in the so-called Baixada Fluminense, a dense sprawl of blue-collar suburbs inland from central Rio and home to much of the city’s workforce.

Meanwhile, residents of central Rio continue to worry about growing violence in the many slums that dot the city. Many of those areas, where police had successfully displaced some criminal gangs in the lead-up to the Olympics and the 2014 World Cup, are now roiled by efforts by gangs to retake turf and regain access to markets for illegal drugs.

Rio is one of several Brazilian states suffering from gaping budget deficits. The state government, which has struggled to pay police, doctors and teachers in recent months, slashed its overall security financing by more than a third in 2016, and shortly before the Olympics declared a fiscal emergency when it literally ran out of money.

And with the nation’s morbund economic state the primary driver behind the surge in violence, it appears that Brazil’s woes are not going away any time soon because earlier this week, the government erported that the labor market deteriorated further in December, with the unemployment rate reaching 12.0% as a result of 12.3 million unemployed workers (up from 9.1mn a year ago), and the real wage bill declining 1.2% yoy (up from -2.0% yoy in November). In seasonally adjusted terms the unemployment rate rose to another record high: 12.5%.

Some more details courtesy of Goldman:

  • Employment declined 2.1% yoy in the 3-month period ending in December (down from the -1.8% yoy average during Jan-Nov). The economically active labor force expanded 1.3% yoy (up from 1.1% yoy in November and equal to the 1.3% yoy increase of the working age population). The labor force participation rate improved to 61.4% in December from 61.3% in November (and 61.4% a year ago). Average real wages increased 0.5% yoy (from -0.5% yoy in November), supported by moderating inflation.
  • Formal salaried employment in the private sector expanded 1.1% yoy, while employment in the informal sector shrank 3.8% yoy. Self-employment declined 3.5%. By sector of economic activity, industrial employment retrenched by 7.7% yoy (955 thousand jobs), and employment in the construction sector declined 10.8% yoy (857 thousand jobs).
  • Average real wages increased 0.5% yoy in December (up from -0.5% yoy in November as inflation decelerated from 7.0% yoy in November to 6.3% yoy in December), with average real wages of the self-employed down 3.5% yoy and of those working in the informal sector down 3.8% yoy. The overall real wage bill of the economy declined 1.2% yoy in December.

Sadly it seems that the Olympics curse has struck again, leaving yet another host nation in a state of socioeconomic dire straits.

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Depression, Stagflation, Stag-Depress-Flation

Hold your real assets outside of the banking system in one of many private international facilities  –>    http://ift.tt/2cyFwvQ;

 

 

 

 

Depression, Stagflation, Stag-Depress-Flation

Posted with permission and written by Gary Christenson (CLICK HERE FOR ORIGINAL)

 

 

The United States suffered through a deflationary depression in the 1930s. Stock prices crashed, currency in circulation declined, commodity and real estate prices fell hard and human misery prevailed.

 

President Roosevelt revalued gold from $20.67 to $35.00 per ounce in 1933 – a substantial devaluation of the dollar. Make-work and government spending programs were implemented. War followed the depression.

 

Then the United States suffered through the “stagflation” of the 1970s. The economy stagnated and inflation rose to previously unheard of levels. The Vietnam war, inflation and social protests dominated the news, gold shot upward from $42.00 to over $800 per ounce and the dollar bought much less. Government spent massively on the Vietnam War and social programs.

 

 

Those two eras had a number of commonalities – war, more government programs, excessive government spending, social unrest, and escalating gold prices.

 

Both were periods of weak or negative economic growth. The 1930s were deflationary and the 1970s were inflationary.

 

Stag-Depress-Flation of 2017 – 2025 might be next:


How and why? Everything is wonderful – we have new DJIA highs and a new President. Yes, but:

 

  • Official National Debt is nearly $20 Trillion, an outrageous sum. Corporate and personal debt, including mortgages, credit card debt, auto loans and student loans are huge and difficult or impossible to pay.
  • 95 million Americans are without jobs but are not included in the calculations so we are told the official unemployment rate is low.
  • Most people live paycheck to paycheck and have little savings and minimal retirement funds.
  • Interest rates peaked in the early 1980s and declined until last August. A 35 year trend that has reversed suggests interest rates will increase for years or perhaps decades. Those increasing interest rates portend bankruptcies, declining corporate profits, higher unemployment, derivatives crash, and increasingly squeezed Americans overloaded by excessive debt, even if they retain jobs.
  • Higher interest rates will weaken the real estate market – already happening – and most certainly will hurt the refi market – already happening. The auto market will suffer – already happening.

 

CONCLUSIONS:

  • Economically the U. S. is in trouble. We have far too much debt, too many regulations, a deeply entrenched establishment taking more than their share and massive but ignored unemployment.
  • Social mood is deeply divided. Replay the SAG awards for a sample, or look at the number of protests in the past month.
  • The country and populace are divided. The “left coast” and Hollywood are convinced that nothing good can come from a Trump Presidency, while “flyover America” rejoices and traditional media outlets fan the flames of anger, resentment and betrayal. Eight years of disgust with President Bush begat eight years of disgust with President Obama which begat the President Trump era.
    The country is more polarized than at any time since the anti-Vietnam War marches in the streets of America.
  • The Fed deeply fears deflation because the risk of an economic crash is high, tax revenues decline during deflationary episodes, and everything leveraged with debt is vulnerable.
  • Expect the Fed to do whatever is necessary to increase inflation, “print currency,” promote QE, and more. Currency in circulation will increase rapidly.
  • As currency in circulation increases, consumer prices rise. Stocks are already overvalued, bonds are declining (interest rates rising) so expect the newly created fiat currencies to flow into commodities. Prices will increase in commodities, gold and silver, as occurred in the 1970s.
  • Hemmingway said, “The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war.” Consumer price inflation – never mind the official numbers – is here and increasing. Next is more war.
  • Stagflation: Too much debt is a drag on the economy. Rising interest rates suggest bankruptcies and declining earnings – hence minimal or no growth. This is the stagflation part of the scenario.
  • Depression is an extended period of negative or low growth, such as in the U. S. economy since 2008. Many believe the U. S. entered the “Greater Depression” and never emerged.
  • Inflation: The military believes that war is good for the economy. The previous President, who won a Nobel Peace Prize, dropped 26,171 bombs on foreign nations during 2016. Expect more war. Consumer price inflation always follows war.
  • Expect much more inflation, like the 1970s and worse, as government and the Fed “stimulate” the economy with currency printing, QE, war, and spending. Congress likes spending projects and wars. The Fed likes devaluation of the dollar and inflation of the currency. The dollar has lost, compared to gold, over 98% of its value since 1913. Expect further devaluation of the dollar.
  • President Trump may be wonderful or the worst, but can he fix 100 years of mismanagement and corruption?
  • Expect Stag-Depress-Flation in the coming years.
  • Expect much higher gold and silver prices in upcoming years.

 

 

Please email with any questions about this article or precious metals HERE

 

 

 

Depression, Stagflation, Stag-Depress-Flation

Posted with permission and written by Gary Christenson (CLICK HERE FOR ORIGINAL)

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Conway Accuses Media Of “Emboldening” Berkeley Protesters

Last night hundreds of protesters at University of California in Berkeley smashed windows, set fires and clashed with police as they forced the controversial “alt-right” speaker and Breitbart News editor, Milo Yiannopoulos, to cancel his appearance at the liberal-leaning institution (we covered the madness here: “Trump Threatens To Pull U.C. Berkeley Funds After Violent Protesters Cancel Yiannopoulos Speech“).

In response to the demonstrations, this morning Kellyanne Conway took to Fox News to blast the mainstream media for “emboldening” protesters by implicitly supporting their violent and destructive actions.  Per The Hill:

“What’s going on out there is what’s going on all across the country,” Conway, a key aide to President Trump, said on Fox News’s “Fox & Friends” Thursday.

 

“You have protesters who feel very emboldened,” added Conway, who served as Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign manager. “They’ve got media cameras following them, they give interviews.”

 

“I don’t even know if they know what they’re protesting. Really, what is it, the free speech? Having someone on your campus who has a dissenting point of view or wants to present an alternative point of view?”

 

Conway said students lashing out at Yiannopoulos, who is a popular figure with the alt-right, are in for a rude awakening upon graduation.

 

“In the real world, when these kids grow up and try to find jobs – which they will in the Trump economy – [they’ll see] life doesn’t work that way, folks.”

Here is Conway’s full interview with Fox:

 

Yiannopoulos, whose appearance was canceled just two hours before he was set to take the stage, blasted the hypocrisy of the Left saying they are “absolutely terrified of free speech and will do literally anything to shut it down.”

Yiannopoulos blamed the cancellation it on “violent left-wing protestors.”

 

“One thing I do know for sure: The Left is absolutely terrified of free speech and will do literally anything to shut it down,” he wrote on Facebook.

 

And, as usual, President Trump didn’t mince words in expressing his opinion and solution to the violent Leftist protesters.

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Bullish Sentiment Nears 3-Year Highs

Record short VIX futures, near-record long stock futures, record short bonds, and President Trump saying “don’t worry about” – ‘what could possibly go wrong’ seems to be the mantra for stock market investors with Investors’ Intelligence bulls at their highest in almost 3 years (and bears at their lowest in almost 2 years)…

 

h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer

We are sure this is probably nothing.

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Trump Slams Arnie’s “Total Disaster” Ratings, Says “The World Is In Trouble… I’ll Fix It”

In a far-ranging speech addressing the National Prayer Breakfast, President Trump took a shot at Arnold Schwarzenegger’s Celebrity Apprentice ratings – “total disaster”

… jabbed at immigrants and religious freedom “freedom is a gift from god,” and reassured Americans that he will save the world, “the world is in trouble…I’ll fix it.” Quite a morning already.

Trump noted his “tremendous success” as star of reality show “Celebrity Apprentice,” as well as the show’s drop in ratings since he left. “We know how that turned out. The ratings went right down the tubes. It’s been a total disaster” since the show restarted with Arnold Schwarzenegger hosting, Trump said. “And I want to just pray for Arnold if we can, for those ratings,” he joked.

Additional headlines from his speech include:

Religion

  • *TRUMP: `AMERICA IS A NATION OF BELIEVERS’
  • *TRUMP: AMERICAN PEOPLE WANT A NATION `UNDER GOD’
  • *TRUMP SAYS HE’S MOST INSPIRED BY FAMILIES OF U.S. MILITARY
  • *TRUMP SAYS QUALITY OF LIFE DEFINED BY SPIRITUAL SUCCESS
  • *TRUMP: ALL NATIONS MUST SPEAK OUT AGAINST GENOCIDE
  • *TRUMP: WILL NOT ALLOW A BEACHHEAD OF INTOLERANCE TO SPREAD
  • *TRUMP: WILL ENSURE THAT IMMIGRANTS EMBRACE RELIGIOUS LIBERTY
  • *TRUMP: WANT IMMIGRANTS TO `EMBRACE’ U.S. VALUES, NOT HATE THEM
  • *TRUMP: TERRORISM IS FUNDAMENTAL THREAT TO RELIGIOUS FREEDOM
  • *TRUMP: WILL DO EVERYTHING POSSIBLE TO PROTECT RELIGIOUS LIBERTY
  • *TRUMP: U.S. WILL SUCCEED IF VULNERABLE HAVE PATH TO SUCCESS
  • *TRUMP: `FREEDOM IS A GIFT FROM GOD’

And saving the world…

  • *TRUMP SAYS `DON’T WORRY’ ABOUT `TOUGH’ PHONE CALLS HE’S HAVING
  • *TRUMP: `THE WORLD IS IN TROUBLE,’ SAYS HE’LL FIX IT

Full Speech below:

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Gorsuch Follows Scalia’s Footsteps on Criminal Justice: New at Reason

If you were hoping President Donald Trump would pick someone to follow in the late Justice Antonin Scalia’s footsteps, you should be happy with his selection of Neil Gorsuch, writes Kevin Ring, the president of Families Against Mandatory Minimums. Like Scalia, Judge Gorsuch is a brilliant thinker, gifted writer, dedicated constitutionalist, defender of the separation of powers, and a judge willing to stand up for the rights of unpopular defendants if that’s what the law requires.

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Amazon Signs 50-Year Lease On 900-Acre Air Cargo Hub To House 40 “Prime Air” Jets

Watch out FedEx, here comes Amazon Prime Air.  And, if history is any guide, Amazon may be quite happy to provide your cargo services at a discount to costs, which we suspect your shareholders, unlike Amazon’s, will find to be sub-optimal. 

According to the Consumerist, Amazon has signed a 50-year lease on a 900-acre cargo hub at the Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport intended to house a fleet of 40 Prime Air jets.  Amazon is expected to invest $1.5 billion in the facility in return for $40 million in tax incentives from the State of Kentucky. 

The facility is located at the Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport, less than 100 miles away from the 1,200-acre UPS Worldport in Louisville. That’s right near the massive Amazon fulfillment center in Hebron, KY, and the e-commerce behemoth has signed a 50-year lease on 900 acres of property from the airport. Amazon is investing $1.5 billion in the hub, which will receive $40 million in tax incentives from the state of Kentucky over ten years if Amazon meets job targets.

 

Only 16 of the 40 Prime Air cargo jets that Amazon has leased are in service now, and the Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky hub is meant to serve as their home once they’re all in the air. Amazon began its air operation at what used to be the DHL domestic hub at a decommissionedd Air Force base in Ohio, northeast of Cincinnati.

Prime Air

 

In a move that the Trump administration will undoubtedly approve of, Amazon plans to hire 600 full-time employees and another 1,400 part-time workers to staff the new facility.

Per the Lexington Herald Leader, Amazon has signed leases on a total of 40 Boeing 767s, of which 16 are now in operation. 

“As we considered places for the long-term home for our air hub operations, Hebron quickly rose to the top of the list with a large, skilled workforce, centralized location with great connectivity to our nearby fulfillment locations, and an excellent quality of living for employees,” said Dave Clark, Amazon’s senior vice president of worldwide operations.

 

A news release from Amazon said that the company in 2016 entered into agreements with two carriers to lease 40 dedicated cargo airplanes for Prime shipping; 16 of the planes are now in service for Amazon customers, “with more planes rolling out over time,” the release said.

While Amazon has denied it so far, Wall Street analysts have long speculated the online retailer may have ambitions to compete with UPS and FedEx in providing freight forwarding for other companies.  Per Reuters:

Analysts suspect it has larger ambitions.

 

“We estimate a $400 billion-plus market opportunity for Amazon in delivery, freight forwarding, and contract logistics,” Colin Sebastian, an analyst for Baird Equity Research, said in a note to clients.

 

The northern Kentucky location – not far from UPS’s major hub – puts Amazon’s aircraft in shooting distance of top cities. The company said last year it would lease 40 Boeing Co 767 planes, 16 of which are currently in service.

 

It also lets Amazon’s trucks reach 11 fulfillment centers in state. And a large operation of Deutsche Post DHL there lets Amazon transfer packages easily abroad, said Brian Clancy, managing director of advisory firm Logistics Capital & Strategy LLC.

As Sir Richard Branson once said, the fastest way to become a millionaire is to take a billion dollars and start an airline business.  Best of luck.

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Here Is The “Open Letter” Google, Apple, Facebook And Others Are Sending To Donald Trump

In the backlash over Trump’s executive order on immigration, Alphabet, Apple, Facebook, Uber, Stripe, CPG and various manufacturing companies have penned a letter opposing U.S. President Trump’s travel ban, ReCode reported overnight.

The letter stresses that the executive order’s blanket “suspension” – it avoids the word “ban” – is “not the right approach” to strengthening national security. The letter also argues in favor of supporting the DACA program. The goal is to publish the open letter this week, said one of the people, who asked not to be identified because the discussions are private. Changes are still being made to the document, and it’s possible it may not be released.

“We share your goal of ensuring that our immigration system meets today’s security needs and keeps our country safe,” said a draft of the letter. “We are concerned, however, that your recent Executive Order will affect many visa holders who work hard here in the United States and contribute to our country’s success.” The draft, noted by Bloomberg, also states that “our nation’s compassion is part of what makes it exceptional,” and continues by offering to help the administration come up with ways to set up thorough screening while avoiding a complete suspension to U.S. refugee programs. The companies also offer aid in resolving the status of the 750,000 so-called “Dreamers,” undocumented immigrants brought to the U.S. as children and governed by the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program. The program, created by former President Barack Obama in 2012, has allowed more than 700,000 people to obtain renewable two-year work permits.

The companies note that they hire “both thousands of Americans and some of the most talented people from abroad, who work together to help our companies succeed and expand our overall employment.” The letter ends by asking President Trump to use the companies as “a resource to help achieve immigration policies that both support the work of American businesses and reflect American values.”

The full draft of the letter is below, courtesy of ReCode:

Dear President Trump,

 

Since the country’s birth, America has been the land of opportunity — welcoming newcomers and giving them the chance to build families, careers and businesses in the United States. We are a nation made stronger by immigrants. As entrepreneurs and business leaders, our ability to grow our companies and create jobs depends on the contributions of immigrants from all backgrounds.

 

We share your goal of ensuring that our immigration system meets today’s security needs and keeps our country safe. We are concerned, however, that your recent executive order will affect many visa holders who work hard here in the United States and contribute to our country’s success. In a global economy, it is critical that we continue to attract the best and brightest from around the world. We welcome the changes your administration has made in recent days in how the Department of Homeland Security will implement the executive order, and we stand ready to help your administration identify other opportunities to ensure that our employees can travel with predictability and without undue delay.

 

Our nation’s compassion is a part of what makes it exceptional, and we are committed to helping your administration identify approaches for thorough screening without a blanket suspension of admissions under the U.S. Refugee Admissions program. While security and vetting procedures can and should always be subject to continuous evaluation and improvement, a blanket suspension is not the right approach.

 

Similarly, we stand ready to identify ways of helping to achieve your stated goal of bringing clarity to the future of the 750,000 Dreamers in this country under the protections of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program in a way “that will make people happy and proud.” Removing these protections by barring renewals would effectively end the program and eliminate the ability for these Dreamers to work and live without the fear of deportation.

 

The business community shares your commitment to growing the American economy and expanding job creation across the country. We hire both thousands of Americans and some of the most talented people from abroad, who work together to help our companies succeed and expand our overall employment. As you contemplate changes to the nation’s complex and interconnected immigration policies, whether business and employment-based visas, refugees or DACA, we hope that you will use us as a resource to help achieve immigration policies that both support the work of American businesses and reflect American values.

At least this draft contained no reference to any proposed H1-B visa changes by the Trump administration.

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