Small Caps & Crypto Soar, Bonds Battered After Big Jobs Beat

Small Caps & Crypto Soar, Bonds Battered After Big Jobs Beat

US equity futures trod water overnight but once the massive jobs beat hit, everything ripped higher…  but (domestically focused) Small Caps were in a world of their own…

While S&P futs closed at a new high, today’s meltup in Small Caps sent it back to its highest in 3 weeks…

Erasing last week’s relative underperformance against Nasdaq…

On the week, Small Caps went from biggest loser  (-3% on Tuesday) to winner, winner, chicken dinner (+3.2% at futs close on Friday)…

Which breaks down first – bond yields or big-tech?

Source: Bloomberg

But as great as things were for Small Caps amid today’s desert of liquidity, the belly of the bond curve was a bloodbath (5Y ended the week +10bps while 30Y was -3bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

5Y yields are now at their highest since Feb 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar rallied today after payrolls to end the week higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin surged above $60k overnight and held gains during the day session…

Source: Bloomberg

And Ethereum exploded higher after battling with $2,000…

Source: Bloomberg

And that relative surge of ETH over BTC has erased the underperformance since early March…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold saw a big roundtrip on the week…

Oil chopped around all week (closed today) finding support at $60…

This seemed to sum things up rather well… again!

Finally, there’s this…

Source: Bloomberg

Because who needs jobs when the world’s central banks just keep printing…

Source: Bloomberg

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/02/2021 – 12:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/31GiKuD Tyler Durden

Rebel Yells, But You’re Likely to Yawn in Response


rebel_1161x653
  • Rebel. ABC. Thursday, April 8, 10 p.m.
  • Home Economics. ABC. Wednesday, April 7, 8:30 p.m.

Disney holds monthly search-and-destroy meetings to root out the apparently endless amount of racist material in its old movies. If only the company could make a fraction of that effort to eliminate the brain-dead drivel in its captive ABC network, TV critics could all whistle while we worked instead of putting lit cigarettes out in our eyes, which I’m sure will take a major uptick in the CDC statistics after this week’s screeners get around.

Not since the U.S. Army Air Force and the RAF last visited Dresden have two such fearsome bombs exploded at the same time as ABC’s Rebel and Home Economics, and there aren’t even any Nazis around to blame it on.

Like Dresden, Rebel has an awesome mortality rate, the most tragic fatality being the career of Katey Sagal. Sagal is an astonishingly versatile actress, hopping between eccentric dramatic roles—a homicidal motorcycle hoochie in Sons of Anarchy, a 14th-century Welsh witch in The Bastard Executioner—with astounding power. And she started it all by brilliantly reworking (or maybe bitch-slapping) the smiley-faced June Cleaver/Harriet Nelson suburban housewife archetype with her gloriously deviant portrayal of the slothful (“the laziest bitch in Chicago,” as she bragged in one episode) and promiscuous Peggy Bundy in the sitcom lampoon Married…With Children.

But in Rebel, Sagal is trying to animate a character whose bellicosity and smug populism obliterate everything around her, including plot, characterization, and credibility. That’s Rebel Bello, a political activist disguised as a paralegal, who litigates not with evidence and witnesses but by unleashing mobs on the country clubs of defendants. (“She’s not a lawyer, she’s just loud,” observes another character with deadly accuracy.)

She’s fond of saying—well, shrieking—things like “I keep hoping one day I’ll wake up and the world will have saved itself!” and “I bring the CEOs of multinational corporations to their knees!” This apparently keeps the class-action plaintiffs rolling in, though it’s a little rough on Rebel’s husbands—three and counting. By the way, saving the world apparently pays pretty well: One of Rebel’s regular complaints is how her ex-husbands wind up with all her money. You’d think the Savior of the World and Slayer of Multinational CEOs could find a decent divorce lawyer. But she’s too busy drumming up class-action business for that.  At the moment, she’s seeking victims of a sleazy manufacturer’s defective heart valves, which bring on death in outlandishly lurid and jury-pleasing ways.

If the concept of a belligerently trashy blue-collar paralegal substituting emotion for evidence as she attacks a purportedly murderous corporation sounds familiar, keep an eye out as Rebel‘s credits roll for an amazing coincidence: Erin Brockovich as executive producer! If you change those heart valves for contaminated water, Rebel‘s plot is a virtual clone of the 2000 film about the real-life paralegal Brockovich. That one at least had an engaging story, even if it was almost entirely fictionRebel is merely a boorish bore.

Home Economics is also from a familiar genre, that of the dysfunctional family forced back together by hard economic times. This has produced some pretty good sitcoms, though not a one of them has survived more than a single season.  Audiences who are working in miserable pinch-penny circumstances seem not to enjoy seeing it on TV at home, too.

That won’t be a problem for Home Economics, which fails entirely on its own demerits. It’s about three siblings—one boundlessly rich (he just bought Matt Damon’s house), one grindingly poor (she can’t afford Damon’s movie tickets, much less his home) and one going down fast (his last novel sold five copies, one of them to the rich brother).  No worry—they’re all brought together by mutual peevishness, spite and jealousy. After extensive and determinedly unfunny airing of grievances, they conclude that, as the rich brother declares, that “we’re all screwed up.” And, he adds: “What a relief!” Speak for yourself, buddy.

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Tesla Delivers 184,800 Vehicles In Q1, Model S/X Deliveries Plunge

Tesla Delivers 184,800 Vehicles In Q1, Model S/X Deliveries Plunge

Tesla reported 184,800 vehicles delivered for Q1 2021, coming in head of the average analyst estimate of 168,000 vehicles, the company reported on Friday.

Analyst estimates for deliveries ranged from 145,000 to 188,000 for the quarter, CNBC noted. The most pronounced change in the data heading into 2021 is the lack of deliveries of Model S and Model X models, which as you can see in the chart below, only account for just 2,020 of the company’s Q1 deliveries. 

The remaining 182,780 vehicles that Tesla delivered were either Model 3 or Model Ys. The company said its production was negatively affected by a fire at its Fremont plant, temporary closures due to parts shortages and the broader semiconductor shortage that the entire industry is dealing with. 

Last year, Tesla delivered 88,400 vehicles in the same quarter. 

And Tesla CFO Zach Kirkhorn did address the low contribution percentage of the company’s Model S and X for the quarter in Tesla’s most recent earnings call. He also said that Q1 numbers would have the benefit of Tesla’s Shanhai plant spooling up: “Specifically for Q1, our volumes will have the benefit of early Model Y ramp in Shanghai. However, S and X production will be low due to the transition to the newly re-architected products.”

All eyes remain on the scorching hot traction that legacy automakers have begun to get with their EV plans – including Ford’s recent Q1 where it sold over 6,000 Mustang Mach E crossovers. Analysts are looking to see if these EV sales will eventually cut into Tesla’s marketshare. 

Jeffries analyst Philippe Houchois wrote late last week: “Legacy-free 30-50% net growth and 2-digit margin potential still support high multiples but Tesla is no longer unique as an EV play with preferred access to capital. Some of the edge started to erode, but only slowly and Tesla still leads on multiple fronts, from software to design-to-manufacture, speed of execution and direct selling.”

Recall, Tesla reported 499,550 global deliveries in 2020. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/02/2021 – 11:41

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3meyqyM Tyler Durden

Rebel Yells, But You’re Likely to Yawn in Response


rebel_1161x653
  • Rebel. ABC. Thursday, April 8, 10 p.m.
  • Home Economics. ABC. Wednesday, April 7, 8:30 p.m.

Disney holds monthly search-and-destroy meetings to root out the apparently endless amount of racist material in its old movies. If only the company could make a fraction of that effort to eliminate the brain-dead drivel in its captive ABC network, TV critics could all whistle while we worked instead of putting lit cigarettes out in our eyes, which I’m sure will take a major uptick in the CDC statistics after this week’s screeners get around.

Not since the U.S. Army Air Force and the RAF last visited Dresden have two such fearsome bombs exploded at the same time as ABC’s Rebel and Home Economics, and there aren’t even any Nazis around to blame it on.

Like Dresden, Rebel has an awesome mortality rate, the most tragic fatality being the career of Katey Sagal. Sagal is an astonishingly versatile actress, hopping between eccentric dramatic roles—a homicidal motorcycle hoochie in Sons of Anarchy, a 14th-century Welsh witch in The Bastard Executioner—with astounding power. And she started it all by brilliantly reworking (or maybe bitch-slapping) the smiley-faced June Cleaver/Harriet Nelson suburban housewife archetype with her gloriously deviant portrayal of the slothful (“the laziest bitch in Chicago,” as she bragged in one episode) and promiscuous Peggy Bundy in the sitcom lampoon Married…With Children.

But in Rebel, Sagal is trying to animate a character whose bellicosity and smug populism obliterate everything around her, including plot, characterization, and credibility. That’s Rebel Bello, a political activist disguised as a paralegal, who litigates not with evidence and witnesses but by unleashing mobs on the country clubs of defendants. (“She’s not a lawyer, she’s just loud,” observes another character with deadly accuracy.)

She’s fond of saying—well, shrieking—things like “I keep hoping one day I’ll wake up and the world will have saved itself!” and “I bring the CEOs of multinational corporations to their knees!” This apparently keeps the class-action plaintiffs rolling in, though it’s a little rough on Rebel’s husbands—three and counting. By the way, saving the world apparently pays pretty well: One of Rebel’s regular complaints is how her ex-husbands wind up with all her money. You’d think the Savior of the World and Slayer of Multinational CEOs could find a decent divorce lawyer. But she’s too busy drumming up class-action business for that.  At the moment, she’s seeking victims of a sleazy manufacturer’s defective heart valves, which bring on death in outlandishly lurid and jury-pleasing ways.

If the concept of a belligerently trashy blue-collar paralegal substituting emotion for evidence as she attacks a purportedly murderous corporation sounds familiar, keep an eye out as Rebel‘s credits roll for an amazing coincidence: Erin Brockovich as executive producer! If you change those heart valves for contaminated water, Rebel‘s plot is a virtual clone of the 2000 film about the real-life paralegal Brockovich. That one at least had an engaging story, even if it was almost entirely fictionRebel is merely a boorish bore.

Home Economics is also from a familiar genre, that of the dysfunctional family forced back together by hard economic times. This has produced some pretty good sitcoms, though not a one of them has survived more than a single season.  Audiences who are working in miserable pinch-penny circumstances seem not to enjoy seeing it on TV at home, too.

That won’t be a problem for Home Economics, which fails entirely on its own demerits. It’s about three siblings—one boundlessly rich (he just bought Matt Damon’s house), one grindingly poor (she can’t afford Damon’s movie tickets, much less his home) and one going down fast (his last novel sold five copies, one of them to the rich brother).  No worry—they’re all brought together by mutual peevishness, spite and jealousy. After extensive and determinedly unfunny airing of grievances, they conclude that, as the rich brother declares, that “we’re all screwed up.” And, he adds: “What a relief!” Speak for yourself, buddy.

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Hunter Biden: Laptop “Certainly” Could Be Mine

Hunter Biden: Laptop “Certainly” Could Be Mine

Hunter Biden admitted in a Friday interview that the infamous “laptop from hell” which contained explosive evidence of shady business dealings and a trove of sexual material – some of it allegedly underage – “absolutely” could belong to him.

Sitting down with CBS‘s “Sunday Morning,” Hunter – the ‘smartest guy’ President Biden knows – was asked a “yes or no” whether a MacBook Pro dropped off at a Delaware computer repair shop in April 2019 was his, according to the New York Postwhich was banned from Twitter for more than two weeks last October for simply reporting on the laptop.

“I really don’t know what the answer is, that’s the truthful answer,” said Hunter of the water-damaged MacBook Pro which was eventually seized by the FBI (whose top child porn investigator signed a subpoena to obtain), adding “I have no idea.”

When asked whether it could have belonged to him, however, Hunter said: “Absolutely.”

Certainly, there could be a laptop out there that was stolen from me. It could be that I was hacked, it could be that it was Russian intelligence. It could be that it was stolen from me,” he added.

The laptop – while allegedly containing inappropriate photographs of underage girls in – revealed that President Biden lied when he said that he had no knowledge of Hunter’s business dealings – and was in fact involved with them.

In the final months of the heated 2020 presidential race, The Post revealed a trove of emails from Hunter Biden’s laptop that raised questions about his then-candidate father’s ties to his son’s foreign business ventures, including Burisma, a Ukrainian natural gas company linked to corruption.

The emails revealed that the younger Biden introduced a top Burisma executive to his father, then vice president, less than a year before the elder Biden admittedly pressured Ukrainian officials into firing a prosecutor who was investigating the company.

The never-before-revealed meeting is mentioned in a message of appreciation that Vadym Pozharskyi, a Burisma board adviser, sent Hunter on April 17, 2015. –New York Post

The laptop, which was protected by the password “Hunter02” according to the Daily Mail, was considered a national security nightmare.

Via the Mail:

The material, none of which was encrypted or protected by anything as basic as two-factor authentication, includes:

  • Joe Biden’s personal mobile number and three private email addresses as well as the names of his Secret Service agents;
  • Mobile numbers for former President Bill Clinton, his wife Hillary and almost every member of former President Barack Obama’s cabinet; 
  • A contact database of 1,500 people including actress Gwyneth Paltrow, Coldplay singer Chris Martin, former Presidential candidate John Kerry and ex-FBI boss Louis Freeh; 
  • Personal documents including Hunter’s passport, driver’s licence, social security card, credit cards and bank statements; 
  • Details of Hunter’s drug and sex problems, including $21,000 spent on one ‘live cam’ porn website and ‘selfies’ of him engaging in sex acts and smoking crack cocaine; 

And according to Rudy Giuliani, there were disturbing, underage photographs of young girls found on Hunter’s laptop which were turned over to police in New Castle County, Delaware.

Giuliani said last October on his podcast, “Common Sense,”

“What we found were a number of photographs that troubled us greatly. They troubled us greatly because there were photographs of underage girls. The underage girls were dressed in a very provocative way… very little bikinis, and poses, that were sexually provocative.

That was troubling in and of itself, but then there was one that was straight out-and-out child pornography. Just straight – I mean, as [Justice] Potter Stewart once described pornography as ‘you can’t define it, but you know it when you see it.’

Well, you know this when you see it.

We also knew what our obligations were because Bernie [Kerik, a senior VP at Giuliani Partners and former interim Interior Minister of Iraq after Operation Iraqi Freedom] had been a policeman, and I had been an assistant US Attorney and a Mayor. As a public official, had I seen that, I’d have to report it. I’d be a mandatory reporter as are medical people. When you see child pornography, or you see evidence that we also saw in the text messages and emails of an unsafe environment for the children.

Considerably unsafe environment for the children. Again, I will not go into detail as to why. That’s for the Delaware police.”

The laptop also contained videos of Hunter smoking crack and engaging in sex acts with an unidentified woman.

Still no word from Hunter on who the “big guy” is…

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/02/2021 – 11:20

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3uaxvlE Tyler Durden

Despite History Of Failure, Destructive Rent Control Is Poised To Hit Illinois

Despite History Of Failure, Destructive Rent Control Is Poised To Hit Illinois

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

A bill that would allow rent control in Illinois is gathering steam in the legislature.

Pandora’s Box

Illinois is currently one of 33 states that ban rent control. State Rep. Will Guzzardi’s House Bill 116 repeals Illinois’ statewide ban on local units of government imposing any type of rent control. 

It garnered enough votes to pass in the House’s Housing Committee Wednesday [March 24]. Opponents of the legislation compared allowing rent control to opening Pandora’s Box.

“The real estate market has finally begun to recover fifteen years after the market implosion,” said Rep. Sam Yingling, a Rockford Democrat and real estate agent. “It’s important to recognize that many of these landlords are not giant, faceless corporations but rather ‘ma and pa’ investors.”

Michael Mini, executive vice president of the Chicagoland Apartment Association and a member of the SHAPE Illinois Coalition, said rent control won’t fix the Chicago area’s affordable housing problem, rather worsen it.

“Price controls on rent negatively impact the housing market by deferring maintenance on existing housing and discouraging the construction of new housing,” he said.

Guzzardi and others say rent control isn’t a silver bullet, but rather a tool in their mission to more affordable housing.

Who Wants It?

Guzzardi is a co-chair of the Illinois House’s Progressive Caucus.

This law is progressing because some cities want to try it. What cities might that be?

Guzzardi is a Democratic member of the Illinois House of Representatives who represents the 39th District. The 39th district is in Chicago. 

Affordable Housing 

Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot has a Plan to Create Affordable Housing and Prevent Homelessness.

Her plan, written prior to her being elected did not mention rent control but put all these pieces together and guess what this bill is all about.

Rent Control History

Brookings asks What does Economic Evidence Tell Us About the Effects of Rent Control?

Under pressure to fight rising rents, state lawmakers in Illinois, Oregon, and California are considering repealing laws that limit cities’ abilities to pass or expand rent control. While rules and regulations of rent control vary from place to place, most rent control consists of caps on price increases within the duration of a tenancy, and sometimes beyond the duration of a tenancy, as well as restrictions on eviction.

While rent control appears to help current tenants in the short run, in the long run it decreases affordability, fuels gentrification, and creates negative spillovers on the surrounding neighborhood.

Market Distortions

Rent control results in a couple of standard options by landlords, neither good.

Landlords convert the building to condos reducing the supply of apartments or they stop maintenance and say to hell with it. 

Small landlords with a few units sometimes choose to move into a unit for a year, then the next, and the next until prices are reset.

Renters who do want to move often don’t because of the rent hike. 

Finally, who wants to build apartments in rent controlled cities?

Expected Results

Price ceilings yield expected results: consumers over‐​use the product and producers under‐​produce it. 

Are Rent Control Laws Unconstitutional?

The Cato institute asks Are Rent Control Laws Unconstitutional?

The Cato Institute has filed an amicus brief in the Second Circuit in an important challenge to New York’s rent control laws. Rent control is a silly and counterproductive idea, but it also might be unconstitutional.

In 2019, the New York legislature passed a series of amendments to its rent control laws, known as rent‐​stabilization laws (RSLs). These are not the first amendments to the still‐​controversial RSLs, though they are the most stringent in decades. One of the more egregious new provisions extends the eviction stay period even if the tenant is being removed for cause. The RSLs also maintain a tenant’s strange right to transfer their lease—without the landlord’s permission—to family members who have resided with them for a certain amount of time. Taken together, the RSLs force landlords to rent to many tenants they don’t want to rent to, which is akin to the government essentially mandating that someone can occupy property against an owner’s will.

When the government doesn’t physically take land but rather passes regulations that greatly undermine traditional property rights, it’s possible that such regulations can be a “regulatory taking” under the Fifth Amendment’s Takings Clause, meaning just compensation is owed to the property owner. With New York’s RSLs, while each provision might not alone rise to a regulatory taking, together they offend the common law “right to exclude.” The right to exclude people from occupying your property is obviously central to the concept of “property.” 

The RSLs imposed on New York’s landlords are nothing short of per se takings. It is high time the work the Supreme Court has begun in this area be drawn nearer to its obvious conclusion.

If cities wanted to do something about supply, they would give tax breaks for apartment construction.

Instead, they result to proven failures. 

Capping rates does not increase supply, it caps supply. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/02/2021 – 11:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2PsQ5Xy Tyler Durden

Who’s Hiring And Who’s Firing: A Golden Age For Waiters And Teachers

Who’s Hiring And Who’s Firing: A Golden Age For Waiters And Teachers

Not only was the March payrolls report a blockbuster, golidlocks number, much higher than expected but not too high to spark immediate reflation/hike fears thanks to subdued wage inflation, job growth in March was also widespread unlike February, where 75% of all new jobs were waiters and bartenders. By contrast, in March the largest gains occurring across most industries with the bulk taking place in leisure and hospitality, public and private education, and construction.

Here is a full breakdown:

  • Employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 280,000 in March, as pandemic-related  restrictions eased in many parts of the country. Nearly two-thirds of the increase was in food services and drinking places (+176,000). Job gains also occurred in arts, entertainment, and recreation (+64,000) and in accommodation (+40,000). Employment in leisure and hospitality is down by 3.1 million, or 18.5 percent, since February 2020.

  • In March, employment increased in both public and private education, reflecting the continued resumption of in-person learning and other school-related activities in many parts of the country. Employment rose by 76,000 in local government education, by 50,000 in  state government education, and by 64,000 in private education. Employment is down from February 2020 in local government education (-594,000), state government education (-270,000), and private education (-310,000).

  • Construction added 110,000 jobs in March, following job losses in the previous month (-56,000) that were likely weather-related. Employment growth in the industry was widespread in March, with gains of 65,000 in specialty trade contractors, 27,000 in heavy and  civil engineering construction, and 18,000 in construction of buildings. Employment in construction is 182,000 below its February 2020 level.

  • Employment in professional and business services rose by 66,000 over the month. In March, employment in administrative and support services continued to trend up (+37,000), although employment in its temporary help services component was essentially unchanged. Employment also continued on an upward trend in management and technical consulting services (+8,000) and in computer systems design and related services (+6,000).

  • Manufacturing employment rose by 53,000 in March, with job gains occurring in both durable goods (+30,000) and nondurable goods (+23,000). Employment in manufacturing is down by 515,000 since February 2020.

  • Transportation and warehousing added 48,000 jobs in March. Employment increased in couriers and messengers (+17,000), transit and ground passenger transportation (+13,000), support activities for transportation (+6,000), and air transportation (+6,000). Since February 2020, employment in couriers and messengers is up by 206,000 (or 23.3 percent), while employment is down by 112,000 (or 22.8 percent) in transit and ground passenger transportation and by 104,000 (or 20.1 percent) in air transportation.

  • Employment in the other services industry increased by 42,000 over the month, reflecting job gains in personal and laundry services (+19,000) and in repair and maintenance (+18,000). Employment in other services is down by 396,000 since February 2020.

  • Social assistance added 25,000 jobs in March, mostly in individual and family services (+20,000). Employment in social assistance is 306,000 lower than in February 2020.

  • Employment in wholesale trade increased by 24,000 in March, with job gains in both durable goods (+14,000) and nondurable goods (+10,000). Employment in wholesale trade is 234,000 lower than in February 2020.

  • Retail trade added 23,000 jobs in March. Job growth in clothing and clothing accessories stores (+16,000), motor vehicle and parts dealers (+13,000), and furniture and home furnishing stores (+6,000) was partially offset by losses in building material and garden supply stores (-9,000) and general merchandise stores (-7,000). Employment in retail trade is 381,000 below its February 2020 level.

  • Employment in mining rose by 21,000 in March, in support activities for mining (+19,000). Mining employment is down by 130,000 since a peak in January 2019.

  • Financial activities added 16,000 jobs in March. Job gains in insurance carriers and related activities (+11,000) and real estate (+10,000) more than offset losses in credit intermediation and related activities (-7,000). Financial activities has 87,000 fewer jobs than in February 2020.

It’s hardly a surprise that with the US reopening, the one industry seeing the biggest hiring remains leisure and hospitality where jobs rose by 280,000, as pandemic-related restrictions eased in many parts of the country, with nearly two-thirds of the increase in “food services and drinking places”, i.e., waiters and bartenders, which added +176,000 jobs in March.

And another notable change was in the total number of government workers, which surged by 136K in March, reversing the 90K drop in February, as a result of 49.6K state education workers and 76K local government education workers added thanks to the reopening of schools around the country.

Here is a visual breakdown of all the March job changes:

Finally, courtesy of Bloomberg, below are the industries with the highest and lowest rates of employment growth for the most recent month.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/02/2021 – 10:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3fCKvfJ Tyler Durden

Matt Gaetz Story Shifts From Child Sex Trafficking to Consorting With Sugar Babies


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In short order, the scandal surrounding Rep. Matt Gaetz (R–Fla.) has gone from alleged child sex trafficking!!! to maybe he took MDMA and paid some adult women for sex. We still don’t know all the details, and Gaetz may well turn out to have broken federal law. But it’s telling that the focus of the story is already turning from sex trafficking of a minor to what looks, based on the details so far, like consensual activity among adults.

The New York Times originally broke the story of a possible Department of Justice (DOJ) probe into Gaetz by labeling it a “sex trafficking” investigation involving a 17-year-old girl whom the congressman allegedly had sex with and paid to travel with him. The Tuesday report quickly stirred up a journalism and social media frenzy in which Gaetz was roundly condemned as a sick sexual predator.

That may still be the case…but the latest report takes the story in a different direction. In a Thursday Times article on the DOJ probe, Gaetz’s alleged relationship with a teen—a charge he denies—has been reduced to a much more minor and speculative role. Like the initial Times story, the new report is filtered through anonymous “people close to the investigation” without official statements or documents.

Whereas the first Times story made allegations involving a 17-year-old seem like the emphasis of the DOJ inquiry, the paper now says that officials are merely looking into the possibility of such a relationship existing, as part of prosecuting another Florida politician, ex-GOP official Joel Greenberg, for multiple crimes including alleged misconduct with the girl.

The bulk of the Times‘ new allegations against Gaetz involve sexual activity with consenting adults—activity that the paper now suggests is the real focus of the DOJ inquiry. Prosecutors are “focusing on [Gaetz and Greenberg’s] involvement with multiple women who were recruited online for sex and received cash payments,” the Times says. At the heart of this new narrative is a claim that Gaetz and Greenberg partied with women they met on sugar baby websites.

“Sugar” relationships—often involving wealthier men giving gifts to and/or subsidizing the lifestyles of pretty younger women in exchange for no-strings-attached relationships—and the websites that facilitate these arrangements are not strictly illegal. Like many escort businesses (and informal arrangements for time immemorial), they tend to be framed as “spoiling” and “support” in exchange for “companionship.” In reality, sugar relationships tend to run the gamut, from deep connections that span realms to much more transactional exchanges of cash (or luxury items, or travel costs, etc.) in exchange for sexual trysts.

There’s a long-standing debate over whether sugar babies are sex workers, and whether such relationships count as prostitution. But the only reason the distinction seems to matter is that it makes some parties involved feel better about themselves to pretend like there’s a big difference and—more importantly—can mean the difference between the relationships being criminal or not. (The whole thing really showcases the silly and arbitrary nature of U.S. laws criminalizing sex work…)

In any event, Gaetz—who has denied ever paying for sex—is now accused by the Times of giving money to women with whom he may have done drugs and/or had sex.

The Times has reviewed receipts from Cash App, a mobile payments app, and Apple Pay that show payments from Mr. Gaetz and Mr. Greenberg to one of the women, and a payment from Mr. Greenberg to a second woman. The women told their friends that the payments were for sex with the two men, according to two people familiar with the conversations.

In encounters during 2019 and 2020, Mr. Gaetz and Mr. Greenberg instructed the women to meet at certain times and places, often at hotels around Florida, and would tell them the amount of money they were willing to pay, according to the messages and interviews.

One person said that the men also paid in cash, sometimes withdrawn from a hotel ATM.

Some of the men and women took ecstasy, an illegal mood-altering drug, before having sex, including Mr. Gaetz, two people familiar with the encounters said.

The identities of the people feeding the Times these stories seem like a pretty crucial factor in judging their veracity. If others in this story were caught possessing or selling drugs or engaging in prostitution, they would be on the hook for criminal charges themselves and may have an incentive to exaggerate the role of others in exchange for more lenient treatment.

For now, with the information we have, it seems possible that Gaetz and company were purchasing sex and/or drugs from the women, and also possible that there’s an alternate explanation for all of this.

None of this should be construed as a defense of Gaetz per se, but it is a defense of due process, not rushing to judgment, and not taking mere investigations into misconduct (or prosecutor tales about them) as absolute truths. Unfortunately, that’s a very unpopular position online and in the media.

Even as the narrative around Gaetz morphs into run-of-the-mill-scandal territory, a lot of people (including some folks who purport to be against the drug war and for the bodily autonomy of adult women) are divulging details of his alleged activities with the same level of disgust, urgency, and moral outrage they did over allegations involving minors. It seems that in their glee at having ammunition against Gaetz—a Trump stan and highly visible rising Republican politician—way too many liberals are willing to infantilize adult women and portray drug use and consensual relationships with sex workers as deviant and beyond the pale.

A slew of other rumors about Gaetz’s allegedly unsavory (but not necessarily criminal) behavior and sexual antics have also been making the media and social media rounds.

Meanwhile, the Times is still trying hard to work this story into a sex trafficking framework. While reporting that the FBI stopped questioning the women involved back in January, acknowledging that “no charges have been brought against Mr. Gaetz,” and failing to raise any information suggesting that the women involved were forced or coerced, the paper still adds this:

It is not illegal to provide adults with free hotel stays, meals and other gifts, but if prosecutors think they can prove that the payments to the women were for sex, they could accuse Mr. Gaetz of trafficking the women under “force, fraud or coercion.” For example, prosecutors have filed trafficking charges against people suspected of providing drugs in exchange for sex because feeding another person’s drug habit could be seen as a form of coercion.

It’s yet another attempt to negate adult women’s agency in service of redefining all sex work as “sex trafficking” and give federal police more domain over the private sex lives of consenting adults.

Over the past decade or so, the funding, political enthusiasm, and public appetite for “stopping sex trafficking” has outpaced the actual supply of such crimes, leading the feds to increasingly test and expand the parameters of what they can get away with in policing under this rubric.

Prostitution itself is not a federal crime, so if the FBI wants to stay involved in the Gaetz case, they have a vested interest in trying to define this as involving force, fraud, or coercion. In order for a federal sex trafficking charge to exist, commercial sex must be accompanied by either one of these elements or the presence of someone under age 18.

If no force, fraud, coercion, or minors were involved but Gaetz or Greenberg did pay for sex workers to cross state lines, they could be looking at federal charges under part one of the Mann Act. This is a law frequently used to harass sex workers and their associates and justify FBI surveillance and stings against them—not something to be cheered on just because its target may be someone you don’t like.

Gaetz has said that he is aware of the DOJ looking into him but that he is not the target of an investigation, merely a potential witness regarding the alleged activities of Greenberg (who goes on trial for one count of sex trafficking and a wide array of non-sex-related charges this June).


FREE MINDS 

New Mexico is on track to be the latest state to legalize recreational marijuana. From CNN:

Two related pieces of legislation—one which legalizes recreational cannabis for adults 21 and older in New Mexico and the second which expunges arrest and conviction records for some cannabis offenses—are heading to the governor’s desk after gaining lawmakers’ approval.

While much better than the current situation, the legalization bill still criminalizes carrying more than an approved amount of the drug, by setting “limits on how much cannabis, cannabis extract or edibles a person can buy or have outside their home at a time.”


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QUICK HITS

  • The Biden administration won’t stop lying about Georgia’s voting bill:

  • Yikes—Vermont is now issuing COVID-19 vaccinations based on race:

• How would abortion access in the U.S. change if Roe v. Wade were overturnedReason‘s Jacob Sullum explains.

• The Supreme Court upheld a Federal Communications Commission ruling regarding media ownership that (among other things) “included scrapping a rule that had barred a single company from owning a radio or TV station along with a newspaper in a single local market,” reports The Hill.

• Nick Gillespie talks to Bridget Phetasy:

• Ending civil asset forfeiture should be a bipartisan project.

• The European Union “is poised to ban ‘terrorist content’ or, more accurately, anything it tags with that label,” writes J.D. Tuccille. “The end result will be to drive some information underground and to imperil online freedom of expression.”

• In case you missed last week’s congressional hearing:

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Buchanan: Joe Biden’s Bid To Remake America

Buchanan: Joe Biden’s Bid To Remake America

Authored by Pat Buchanan,

If Joe Biden’s American Jobs Program, outlined in Pittsburgh, is enacted, then the federal government will take a great leap forward toward irreversible control of the destiny of the Republic.

To finance this leap, to subsidize this giant stride toward socialism, U.S. corporations are to be forced to turn over to the government a far larger slice of their earnings. The corporate tax rate is to be raised from 21 to 28%. And that is only the first of the new or added taxes to come — on incomes, capital gains and estates.

The bait to lure Republicans into embracing this $2.3 trillion in Great Society II and Green New Deal spending is the modest fraction to be allocated to infrastructure — airports, bridges, roads, ports, public transit.

 

Most of the rest is to be used to grow social programs and launch new ones. Biden plans to lead the nation into a new “forever war,” an endless war on climate change. Meanwhile, the Chinese pump ever more carbon into the atmosphere, as Americans sacrifice to take it out.

Make no mistake. “Sleepy Joe” is determined to emulate, not Bill Clinton or Barack Obama, but FDR and LBJ, and to be remembered as a president who raised federal power to new heights.

The significance of what Biden has already done, with his $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, cannot be denied.

Even before the COVID-19 pandemic hit with hurricane force in March 2020, the U.S. was looking at yearly trillion-dollar deficits. Then, in that final year of the Trump presidency, came a massive surge in federal spending of some $4 trillion.

The final 2020 deficit exceeded $3 trillion. and the U.S. debt now exceeds the gross domestic product for the first time since World War II.

But unlike 1945, when the war was all but over and federal spending was about to recede dramatically, today, the riptide of new spending is coming in stronger and stronger.

Why? The reasons are many.

First, fear of the social, economic and political consequences of a recession is far greater in Congress and the country than the fear of an outbreak of inflation, which seems to have been contained.

Second, the drivers of deficit spending are growing bolder as the traditional resistance grows weaker. Inside the Republican Party, once a church preaching small government and balanced budgets, the deficit hawks are going the way of the passenger pigeon — toward extinction.

Then there are the other driving forces of larger deficits.

Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, the major entitlements and principal budget elements, are all programmed for growth.

Nor did Donald Trump extract us from the draining wars of the Middle East.

Also, for a decade, the Federal Reserve has held interest rates down and inflation has not been the threat it was at the end of the 1970s when Chairman Paul Volcker brutally squeezed it out of the economy.

The only way interest rates can go now is up, and with the federal debt as huge as it is today, interest rates do not need to rise too far to consume a large chunk of the federal budget.

Over the last century, it has been the fate of the Republican Party to retreat, regroup, resist and retreat again on this macroissue of deficits and debt.

When Cal Coolidge left office in 1929, the federal budget claimed 3% of GDP. The Crash of 1929, the Great Depression and the Second World War followed. All saw huge increases in the federal government’s claim on the nation’s wealth.

But when the Depression and war ended, Eisenhower Republicans made no effort to repeal FDR’s New Deal. And when Barry Goldwater was nominated in 1964 and went down to crushing defeat, LBJ, who cut his teeth in the New Deal, used his massive majorities on the Hill to launch his Great Society, programming new spending far into the future.

When Ronald Reagan came to power on a promise to restrain the federal government, he enlisted the private sector, with his tax cuts, to be the locomotive of progress. But even Reagan failed, by his own admission, to restrain the deficits.

The financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 brought us our first trillion-dollar deficit. And while Trump unleashed the private sector with his tax cuts – unemployment was at record lows across the board on March 1, 2020 – the pandemic and the economic crisis it engendered brought about a bipartisan clamor for government to resolve the crises.

So, where are we?

There appears to be no historical evidence that once a Western democracy expands central power and control of the nation’s resources that it ever willingly gives up those gains.

Yesterday’s gone.

Yet, Biden’s remaking of America must be resisted. As was said at Waterloo, “The Guard dies but does not surrender!”

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/02/2021 – 10:20

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/39C7e83 Tyler Durden

Matt Gaetz Story Shifts From Child Sex Trafficking to Consorting With Sugar Babies


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In short order, the scandal surrounding Rep. Matt Gaetz (R–Fla.) has gone from alleged child sex trafficking!!! to maybe he took MDMA and paid some adult women for sex. We still don’t know all the details, and Gaetz may well turn out to have broken federal law. But it’s telling that the focus of the story is already turning from sex trafficking of a minor to what looks, based on the details so far, like consensual activity among adults.

The New York Times originally broke the story of a possible Department of Justice (DOJ) probe into Gaetz by labeling it a “sex trafficking” investigation involving a 17-year-old girl whom the congressman allegedly had sex with and paid to travel with him. The Tuesday report quickly stirred up a journalism and social media frenzy in which Gaetz was roundly condemned as a sick sexual predator.

That may still be the case…but the latest report takes the story in a different direction. In a Thursday Times article on the DOJ probe, Gaetz’s alleged relationship with a teen—a charge he denies—has been reduced to a much more minor and speculative role. Like the initial Times story, the new report is filtered through anonymous “people close to the investigation” without official statements or documents.

Whereas the first Times story made allegations involving a 17-year-old seem like the emphasis of the DOJ inquiry, the paper now says that officials are merely looking into the possibility of such a relationship existing, as part of prosecuting another Florida politician, ex-GOP official Joel Greenberg, for multiple crimes including alleged misconduct with the girl.

The bulk of the Times‘ new allegations against Gaetz involve sexual activity with consenting adults—activity that the paper now suggests is the real focus of the DOJ inquiry. Prosecutors are “focusing on [Gaetz and Greenberg’s] involvement with multiple women who were recruited online for sex and received cash payments,” the Times says. At the heart of this new narrative is a claim that Gaetz and Greenberg partied with women they met on sugar baby websites.

“Sugar” relationships—often involving wealthier men giving gifts to and/or subsidizing the lifestyles of pretty younger women in exchange for no-strings-attached relationships—and the websites that facilitate these arrangements are not strictly illegal. Like many escort businesses (and informal arrangements for time immemorial), they tend to be framed as “spoiling” and “support” in exchange for “companionship.” In reality, sugar relationships tend to run the gamut, from deep connections that span realms to much more transactional exchanges of cash (or luxury items, or travel costs, etc.) in exchange for sexual trysts.

There’s a long-standing debate over whether sugar babies are sex workers, and whether such relationships count as prostitution. But the only reason the distinction seems to matter is that it makes some parties involved feel better about themselves to pretend like there’s a big difference and—more importantly—can mean the difference between the relationships being criminal or not. (The whole thing really showcases the silly and arbitrary nature of U.S. laws criminalizing sex work…)

In any event, Gaetz—who has denied ever paying for sex—is now accused by the Times of giving money to women with whom he may have done drugs and/or had sex.

The Times has reviewed receipts from Cash App, a mobile payments app, and Apple Pay that show payments from Mr. Gaetz and Mr. Greenberg to one of the women, and a payment from Mr. Greenberg to a second woman. The women told their friends that the payments were for sex with the two men, according to two people familiar with the conversations.

In encounters during 2019 and 2020, Mr. Gaetz and Mr. Greenberg instructed the women to meet at certain times and places, often at hotels around Florida, and would tell them the amount of money they were willing to pay, according to the messages and interviews.

One person said that the men also paid in cash, sometimes withdrawn from a hotel ATM.

Some of the men and women took ecstasy, an illegal mood-altering drug, before having sex, including Mr. Gaetz, two people familiar with the encounters said.

The identities of the people feeding the Times these stories seem like a pretty crucial factor in judging their veracity. If others in this story were caught possessing or selling drugs or engaging in prostitution, they would be on the hook for criminal charges themselves and may have an incentive to exaggerate the role of others in exchange for more lenient treatment.

For now, with the information we have, it seems possible that Gaetz and company were purchasing sex and/or drugs from the women, and also possible that there’s an alternate explanation for all of this.

None of this should be construed as a defense of Gaetz per se, but it is a defense of due process, not rushing to judgment, and not taking mere investigations into misconduct (or prosecutor tales about that) as absolute truths. Unfortunately, that’s a very unpopular position online and in the media.

Even as the narrative around Gaetz morphs into run-of-the-mill-scandal territory, a lot of people (including some folks who purport to be against the drug war and for the bodily autonomy of adult women) are divulging details of his alleged activities with the same level of disgust, urgency, and moral outrage they did over allegations involving minors. It seems that in their glee at having ammunition against Gaetz—a Trump stan and highly visible rising Republican politician—way too many liberals are willing to infantilize adult women and portray drug use and consensual relationships with sex workers as deviant and beyond the pale.

A slew of other rumors about Gaetz’s allegedly unsavory (but not necessarily criminal) behavior and sexual antics have also been making the media and social media rounds.

Meanwhile, the Times is still trying hard to work this story into a sex trafficking framework. While reporting that the FBI stopped questioning the women involved back in January, acknowledging that “no charges have been brought against Mr. Gaetz,” and failing to raise any information suggesting that the women involved were forced or coerced, the paper still adds this:

It is not illegal to provide adults with free hotel stays, meals and other gifts, but if prosecutors think they can prove that the payments to the women were for sex, they could accuse Mr. Gaetz of trafficking the women under “force, fraud or coercion.” For example, prosecutors have filed trafficking charges against people suspected of providing drugs in exchange for sex because feeding another person’s drug habit could be seen as a form of coercion.

It’s yet another attempt to negate adult women’s agency in service of redefining all sex work as “sex trafficking” and give federal police more domain over the private sex lives of consenting adults.

Over the past decade or so, the funding, political enthusiasm, and public appetite for “stopping sex trafficking” has outpaced the actual supply of such crimes, leading the feds to increasingly test and expand the parameters of what they can get away with in policing under this rubric.

Prostitution itself is not a federal crime, so if the FBI wants to stay involved in the Gaetz case, they have a vested interest in trying to define this as involving force, fraud, or coercion. In order for a federal sex trafficking charge to exist, commercial sex must be accompanied by either one of these elements or the presence of someone under age 18.

If no force, fraud, coercion, or minors were involved but Gaetz or Greenberg did pay for sex workers to cross state lines, they could be looking at federal charges under part one of the Mann Act. This is a law frequently used to harass sex workers and their associates and justify FBI surveillance and stings against them—not something to be cheered on just because its target may be someone you don’t like.

Gaetz has said that he is aware of the DOJ looking into him but that he is not the target of an investigation, merely a potential witness regarding the alleged activities of Greenberg (who goes on trial for one count of sex trafficking and a wide array of non-sex-related charges this June).


FREE MINDS 

New Mexico is on track to be the latest state to legalize recreational marijuana. From CNN:

Two related pieces of legislation—one which legalizes recreational cannabis for adults 21 and older in New Mexico and the second which expunges arrest and conviction records for some cannabis offenses—are heading to the governor’s desk after gaining lawmakers’ approval.

While much better than the current situation, the legalization bill still criminalizes carrying more than an approved amount of the drug, by setting “limits on how much cannabis, cannabis extract or edibles a person can buy or have outside their home at a time.”


FREE MARKETS

Republicans are coming for OnlyFans, a subscription-selling site for content creators that’s best known for erotic and pornographic content.


QUICK HITS

  • The Biden administration won’t stop lying about Georgia’s voting bill:

  • Yikes—Vermont is now issuing COVID-19 vaccinations based on race:

• How would abortion access in the U.S. change if Roe v. Wade were overturnedReason‘s Jacob Sullum explains.

• The Supreme Court upheld a Federal Communications Commission ruling regarding media ownership that (among other things) “included scrapping a rule that had barred a single company from owning a radio or TV station along with a newspaper in a single local market,” reports The Hill.

• Nick Gillespie talks to Bridget Phetasy:

• Ending civil asset forfeiture should be a bipartisan project.

• The European Union “is poised to ban ‘terrorist content’ or, more accurately, anything it tags with that label,” writes J.D. Tuccille. “The end result will be to drive some information underground and to imperil online freedom of expression.”

• In case you missed last week’s congressional hearing:

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