Does Hillary Clinton Oppose NSA Spying? Nobody Knows (Except Maybe the NSA)

ClintonNational Journal raises an interesting
question about the presumed candidacy of Hillary Clinton: Where
does she fall on NSA spying and the mass surveillance state?

Several of Clinton’s potential Republican opponents in the
presidential election—like Sens. Rand Paul and Ted Cruz—have
articulated clear anti-NSA positions, notes NJ. But
Clinton, who has been out of office for years, hasn’t had to take a
vote or make a public statement on the issue in quite some
time:


According to NJ
:

More than a year after Edward Snowden’s leaks, the former
secretary of State has yet to offer a meaningful assessment of the
National Security Agency’s mass-surveillance programs. She’s had
plenty of chances, but in interviews, speeches, and even her new
book, Clinton has repeatedly ducked the issue with vagaries and
clichés.

The possible 2016 candidate rarely discusses NSA spying
unprompted. And when she does, her remarks are often couched in
opaque platitudes about the need to balance privacy and national
security concerns.

Clinton has occasionally given lip service to NSA reform, though
she stopped short of endorsing any actual changes. She has also
insisted that Edward Snowden’s actions were “outrageous” and
emboldened terrorists. Rand Paul, on the other hand, maintains that
Snowden’s crime pales in comparison with the crimes committed by
the state in the name of security. Paul has filed a class action
lawsuit against the NSA for violating the civil liberties of all
Americans.

Assuming Clinton both seeks and wins the Democratic
nomination—something virtually assured at this point—and assuming
Paul becomes her chief opponent, the American people may finally be
treated to a robust debate between a dedicated opponent of the
surveillance state and… someone who has studiously dodged the
question at every opportunity.

Given Clinton’s hawkish national security views, it would be
reasonable to expect that she wouldn’t champion NSA reform with the
same enthusiasm as Paul, if at all. Despite their party labels, the
leading Democrat in the race is likely to the right of the leading
Republican on civil liberties issues.

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California Leads Housing Slowdown As Case-Shiller Home Prices Decline For 4 Months In A Row

Following misses in yesterday’s Markit Service PMI, Existing Home Sales and the Dallas Fed report, and today’s Durable Goods numbers, we just made it a pentafecta for misses in US econ data, when the just released August Case-Shiller data for August confirmed once again that US housing is rapidly slowing down, when the Top 20 Composite Index (Seasonally Adjusted) posted another decline in August, its fourth in a row, declining by -0.15% and missing expectations of a modest 0.2% rebound (following last month’s -0.5%) decline. The best summary of the situation came from S&P’s David Blitzer: “The deceleration in home prices continues… The Sun Belt region reported its worst annual returns since 2012, led by weakness in all three California cities — Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego.” But who cares what the birth (and death) place of every housing bubble is doing, right?

This is what Case-Shiller Month over Month data looked like:

And Y/Y:

More from the report:

The large extent of slower increases is seen in the annual figures with all 20 cities; the two composites and the national index all revealing lower numbers than last month. The 10- and 20-City Composites gained 5.5% and 5.6% annually with prices nationally rising at a slower pace of 5.1%. Las Vegas continues to see a sharp deceleration in their annual home prices with a 10.1% annual return, down just below three percent from last month. Miami is now leading the cities with a 10.5% year-over-year return. San Francisco, which has shown double-digit annual gains since November 2012, posted an annual return of 9.0% in August.

 

“Despite softer price data, other housing data perked up. September figures for housing starts, permits and sales of existing homes were all up. New home sales and builders’ confidence were weaker. Continued labor market gains, low interest rates and slower increases in home prices should support further improvements in housing.

And this is how the 20 major MSA’s did in August:

In short: absent another major housing stimulus, one can stick a fork in even this latest fake housing, economic, and finally, market “recovery.”

Source: Case-Shiller




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Rob Ford Loses His Throne, Ebola Quarantines Are Dumb, Weather Channel Co-Founder Calls Global Warming ‘a Myth,’ A.M. Links

  • Rob FordCrack-smoking Toronto Mayor Rob
    Ford, a libertarian hedonist’s dream politician, was dealt a
    significant defeat after his brother
    lost the election
    to replace him.
  • Ebola quarantines enacted by New York and New Jersey are a bad
    idea,
    writes The New York Times editorial board
    .
  • UC-Berkeley students, predictably, don’t want Bill Maher to
    speak at their
    commencement
    . These days, anyone who has ever offended anyone
    is unwelcome at university campuses.
  • The century-old journal of a doomed member of
    Roert Faclon Scott’s Antarctic expedition
    was discovered.
  • Weather Channel co-founder John Coleman
    told Megyn Kelly
    of Fox News that man-made
    climate change was “bad science” and “a myth.”
  • Texas Gov. Rick Perry
    gave a speech
    insisting that the American people want “a clean
    break” from the Obama administration. He’s probably running for
    president.

Follow Reason and Reason 24/7 on
Twitter, and like us on Facebook. You
can also get the top stories mailed to you—sign up
here
.

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Mom Demands Law to Force Kids to Wear Bright Clothes

Life jacketMel Finnemore, a mom of four in the UK, is trying
to get the government to pass a law requiring all children to wear
brightly colored coats or bookbags. Her goal is to increase kids’
visibility, thus preventing accidents. To this end, she organized a
parade of school children in hi-viz outerwear, telling
the press
, “I want to get the message across to children that
it is ‘hip and happening’ to wear high visibility jackets.”

Because there is nothing more hip than a parade of school
children led by a mom. According to the Rutland Stamford &
Mercury
:

“Some children think horses are cool, others think that of
bikes, so I’m trying to show them that it’s cool to wear bright
jackets like the professional men and women do.

“I want it to be made law for children to wear bright clothing
in winter. It would save many lives.”

The paper reports that after she wrote to the local member of
parliament, Alan Duncan, he wrote back saying he can “certainly
support the concept of high-visibility bags ” but that he
would “not be in favour of any form of compulsion.”

free-range-kidsHuzzah huzzah, because
here’s the thing: The mom is clearly right about the value of
bright clothes, and I even sometimes think how dumb I am to be
wearing your standard-issue, so hip-it’s-boring black clothing
(sorry
Nick!
) as I pedestrian my way around New York City. But make
this mom’s safety sensibility a law and what happens? We arrest the
parents of kids in camouflage? Do teens rebel by wearing dark
brown? Should we place children in foster care who show up to
school in plaid skirts and dark blue sweaters? Good bye,
preppies!

Maybe the next step would be to insist all kids wear bright
orange uniforms. That would certainly streamline the
school-to-prison pipeline, too. How’s that for a win/win?

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Brian Doherty on Smartphones Vs. Taxi Drivers

Barry Korengold, president of the San Francisco
Cab Drivers Association, has been driving for hire around the Bay
Area for 35 years. These days, he’s none too happy. Over the past
year or so, revenues have plunged 50 percent, Korengold and other
local drivers say. What happened? Along came Danetta, a bookkeeper
who has been driving passengers around San Francisco for competing
services like UberX, Sidecar, and Lyft. Brian Doherty dives into
the battle between taxi companies trying to maintain their control
over the marketplace, and the less-regulated challenge presented by
new ride services.

View this article.

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Core Capex Drops Most Since January; Durables Goods Orders Slide, Miss By Most In 2014

It was just 2 months ago when the one-off Boeing order-related idiocy distorted the entire time series and was thus extrapolated into escape velocity dreams by prognosticators everywhere. Excused by the cognoscenti as a “volatile time series,” Durable Goods new orders dropped 1.3% MoM, missing expectations by the most since Dec 2013 and negative for the 2nd month in a row. Lats month’s drop was revised lower also. Even more concerning is the 1.7% drop MoM in Core Capex, the biggest miss in over a year and biggest drop since January. Did it snow in September?

Durable Goods prints 2nd miss and 2nd drop in a row

 

And Core Capex – Capital goods new orders ex defense ex-aircraft – dropped most since January

 

Headlines:

  • Durable goods new orders fell 18.3% in Aug., the Census Bureau said
  • New orders ex-trans. fell 0.2% in Sept. after 0.7% rise
  • New orders ex-defense fell 1.5% in Sept. after 19.1% fall
  • Non-defense capital goods orders ex-aircraft fell 1.7% in Sept.
  • Non-defense capital goods ex-air 3 mo. avg. annualized rose 10.4%
  • Non-defense capital goods shipments ex-aircraft fell 0.2% in Sept. after 0.1% rise

 

Charts: Bloomberg




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China “Ghost Town Index” – Here Are China’s 10 “Ghastliest” Cities

Who can forget China’s ghost city of Ordos: back in late 2009, when the hollow shell behind China’s torrid growth was first revealed to the world, the city near China’s Mongolia border was cooler talk for weeks. Fast forward five years later, and Ordos is all but forgotten, having been eclipsed by a veritable army of much bigger “ghosts” that make up the “ghost town network” – a list of cities created by the China Investment Network, a business newspaper in Beijing, to determine which cities were the most ghostly.

As Caixin reports, the newspaper devised its index using a government standard that says cities should have 10,000 people per square kilometer. The editors at China Investment Network determined that if a city’s ratio of people to area was 0.5 – that is, it was half full – then it is a ghost town. To take the example a step further, if a city had a ratio of .10, then it had one-tenth the population the government thought it deserved. Based on this approach, at least 50 Chinese cities fit the description of “ghost town.” The large city of Weihai, in the eastern province of Shandong, and the tourist destination of Sanya, in the south’s Hainan Province, were among China’s emptiest.

 

And here is how a Goldman analyst recount his “on the ground” visit around some of the more prominent Chinese ghost cities. From Goldman’s Kenneth Ho:

In August, the GS Asia Credit Strategy team spent four days in China, visiting a number of property development projects as well as a couple of well-publicized “ghost towns.” While this brief trip to a limited number of developments is unlikely to provide a full picture of the real estate market in China, it does offer a first-hand look at some of the most widely cited concerns about China’s housing build-up. Kenneth Ho offers his takeaways (and pictures) below.

Less ghostly than expected, but still spooky

The couple of “ghost towns” we visited, while less desolate than some press reports would suggest, were indeed very quiet. We did not prearrange the visits, and we went to the sales offices as well as seeing the properties. Both towns we saw have been in development for about a decade. Tianducheng, or Sky City, on the outskirts of Hangzhou has been reported by the press as deserted (e.g., by Reuters). Although the development was relatively quiet, there were a fair number of occupants in the residential buildings, and we got the sense that tenants were slowly moving in. The staff at the sales office told us that the occupancy rate is around 60% for the completed and sold units. There is further development in Tianducheng, and we did see more construction work taking place – but it was not the desolate town portrayed by the press.

A second well-publicized “ghost town” (e.g., by the South China Morning Post) we visited was Jingjin New Town, on the outskirts of Tianjin. This development is mostly comprised of villas and separated into ten phases. According to the staff at the sales office, phases 1 to 4 have been mostly sold, and phase 5 may be released later this year, though there were no plans at that moment to release phases 6 to 10. We believe that half of the development (phases 1 to 5) have already been built, with the other half (phases 6 to 10) yet to be constructed. Despite most of the completed villas having been sold, from what we saw, the occupancy level is very low, and some unsold villas are not in the best shape. The sales office told us that the project targeted retirees or second/holiday homebuyers working in Beijing and Tianjin (hence the low occupancy), and that it is busier during public holidays and weekends. We cannot verify this statement, and it is difficult to assess which factors are driving the low occupancy rate. Projects of this type have not been attracting much demand, and the town was very quiet overall. That said, we did not see a significant amount of uncompleted constructions. As in Sky City, however, it appeared that more development was coming through.

Construction still dominates the landscape

We visited other projects in Tianjin, Hangzhou, and Hohhot, as they are tier 2 and 3 cities with meaningful excess supply. In Tianjin and Hangzhou, we saw developments on the outskirts as well as some closer to the city center. Although it appeared that YTD sales had been satisfactory, we saw significant amount of construction activity; most projects were targeting improved sales in 2H14, with new launches to come. In Hohhot, a provincial capital reported as having some of the most significant overbuild, centrally located developments targeting the mass market appeared to be seeing demand, though less so for the higher-end projects. But we did see signs of overbuilding, which raises questions about whether newer properties, particularly on the outskirts, will find sufficient demand.




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Actor Chow Yun-fat Responds to Ban by China for Supporting Hong Kong Protests: “I’ll Just Make Less Money”

Chow Yun-fatActor Chow Yun-fat, like some other celebrities
from Hong Kong, has spoken up in support of pro-democracy
demonstrators on the islanders. Like every other celebrity in Hong
Kong, and many around the world, Chow draws a significant portion
of his income from work in China. The Chinese government is using
its control of a billion consumers to try to silence celebrities
who might be interested in wading into the discussion over the Hong
Kong demonstrations.

It had
Kenny G
bending over backwards to explain how his innocuous
wish for peace and a picture taken at the Hong Kong protests wasn’t
indicative of anything other than his love for Hong Kong and all of
China—Kenny G makes a lot of money in mainland China, even if he
can’t collect royalties the way he can in other countries.

For some Hong Kong artists, an even more significant portion of
their success is predicated on media consumption in China.
Nevertheless, as the Taipei Times
reports
:

[Anthony] Wong, [Denise] Ho [who draws 80 percent of her income
singing in China] and other artistic figures from Hong Kong and
Taiwan — including actors like Chow Yun-Fat (周潤發) and Tony Leung
(梁朝偉), and a filmmaker Kenneth Ip (舒琪) — have been among the most
recognizable faces and voices during the protests that have
occupied parts of the city for weeks. Some have spoken at rallies
and mingled with students; others have used their social media
accounts to express support for the demonstrators.

Before the protests, initially led by a movement called Occupy
Central With Love and Peace, the names and faces of these
performers were featured regularly on stages and screens in China,
as well as in advertisements.

But now they are being shunned by fans and companies in China,
on whose support many of their careers depend. Arms of China’s
state-run news media have denounced them as disloyal to their
country. Photographs of a list containing the names of Wong, Ho and
other artists were circulated on social media this week. The list
was said to be a blacklist of pro-Occupy artists that had been
drawn up and sent to mainland news media outlets and entertainment
companies, with instructions not to mention or promote the
stars.

Chow Yun-fat, for one, says he doesn’t care. Asked about the
ban, the actor, whose net worth is about $80 million,
reportedly
said he could “just make less” money.

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On Traders’ Minds This Morning

A summary of the key things on traders’ minds this morning, as reported by Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank

  1. Record short selling in Japanese equities… with around 35% of daily trading volume being shorted. Normally the most shorted single stocks outperform the general market, so this might be a signal that the market is too pessimistic on Japanese equities and we could see a short-term, short-covering rally.
  2. The market does not believe the European Central Bank… with all banking stocks yesterday erasing early gains following the better-than-expected stress-test results. The truth lies probably in between, with the ECB being a bit too optimistic and investors a bit too pessimistic. Overall, our view is that the stress test will improve valuations among certain banking stocks, such as Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank which are trading at half their book value.
  3. Amgen delivered solid third-quarter earnings after US market close… with EPS at $2.30 vs. an expected $2.11. The company is raising its full-year guidance. We highlighted the stock on yesterday’s morning call and we remain very bullish on Amgen.
  4. Twitter Q3 EPS was in line… but the valuation is grotesque given the lack of user growth. We are negative on the stock.
  5. BP issues an implicit profit warning… but the market does not care, sending the stock up around 1% in early London trading as Q3 net income came in a tad better than expected (but Q3 profits were down 19% year-over-year). Gulf of Mexico oil spill costs are now $20 billion but could go as high as $50 billion. Management is issuing a small profit warning due to the sanctions against Russia. BP owns 20% of OAO Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil producer.
  6. Lloyds Banking sees a 41% jump in profits… but investors are sending the stock down 1.5% despite announcements of jobs cut and positive trends in impairments. Our quant model is neutral on Lloyds Banking but very bullish on Royal Bank of Scotland, which is reporting its Q3 earnings on Friday. Given today’s results from Lloyds, we expect positive results from Royal Bank of Scotland.
  7. Gilead Sciences reports Q3 earnings at 20:00 GMT… with the Street expecting $1.91. Our quant model is extremely bullish on Gilead Sciences and the stock is on our conviction buy list for North America equities.
  8. Facebook reports Q3 earnings after US market close... with analysts expecting earnings to rise 61% y/y on margin expansion and increased monetisation of its international user base. Our quant model is very bullish on Facebook and we will elaborate on our view later today on Saxo TV.




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Frontrunning: October 28

  • CDC says returning Ebola medical workers should not be quarantined (Reuters)
  • Sweden’s central bank cuts rates to zero (FT)
  • Hacking Trail Leads to Russia, Experts Say (WSJ)
  • Discount-Hunting Shoppers Threaten Stores’ Holiday Cheer (BBG)
  • Apple CEO fires back as retailers block Pay (Reuters)
  • Repeat after us: all China data is fake – China Fake Invoice Evidence Mounts as HK Figures Diverge (BBG)
  • FX Traders’ Facebook Chats Said to Be Sought in EU Probe (BBG)
  • Euro Outflows at Record Pace as ECB Promotes Exodus (BBG)
  • Apple boosts R&D spending in new product hunt (FT)
  • China’s Stocks Rise Most in Three Months on Trade-Zone Expansion (BBG)
  • BoE demands climate answers from insurers (FT)
  • Mercedes Drivers Stung by Shale Boom’s Quirks at the Pump (BBG)
  • Russian Brain Drain Saps Talent as Sanctions Hit Financing (BBG)
  • China’s ‘new normal’ for consumption (FT)
  • Madison Square Garden Explores Plan to Split Into Two (BBG)
  • Washington state school gunman texted victims to meet at cafeteria: official (Reuters)
  • Wyly Widow Was Insolvent After Billionaire’s Death (BBG)
  • Zombie Storms Cause Mayhem Long After They Drop off Maps (BBG)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

* The Centers for Disease Control recommended that people deemed to be at high risk of developing Ebola voluntarily isolate themselves from others for 21 days, but stopped short of recommending the mandatory quarantines that at least two states have ordered. (http://on.wsj.com/1wD924O)

* Computer-security experts say they found what they describe as a sophisticated cyberweapon on a network at a U.S. firm harboring military secrets, and that the spy tool was built during Moscow working hours. (http://on.wsj.com/1tC3c62)

* Alibaba Group Holding Ltd, which recently raised $25 billion in the world’s biggest initial public offering in the United States, is interested in cooperating with Apple Inc in financial payments, the Chinese company’s executive chairman said. (http://on.wsj.com/1sxoI5e)

* The FDA, Interpol and dozens of countries want the Internet’s central administrator to help shut down sites suspected of selling drugs without a prescription, but Icann’s powers are limited. (http://on.wsj.com/1tBbolL)

* The United States is imposing additional tariffs on Mexican sugar imports next week, but the new fees may be short-lived. (http://on.wsj.com/1pSTOV7)

* Europe’s yearlong banking stress tests were to provide the public with reliable, comprehensive data about the finances of the continent’s lenders. But some errors and inconsistencies nonetheless crept into the test results. (http://on.wsj.com/1tBbwSb)

* Madison Square Garden said it would explore separating its entertainment businesses from its media and sports operations, and that it was nominating Nelson Peltz and Scott Sperling to its board. (http://on.wsj.com/1yG5yzR)

* An internal disagreement within the Securities and Exchange Commission is threatening potentially lucrative revenue streams at Bank of America Corp, according to people close to the situation. (http://on.wsj.com/1wD94cK)

* General Motors Co – trying to stir some buzz around the next generation Chevrolet Volt plug-in – said Tuesday it would move production of the vehicle’s electric drive unit to its home state of Michigan from Mexico. (http://on.wsj.com/1xyuiZH)

 

FT

The Bank of England has written to about 30 insurance companies to evaluate the risks of climate change to their solvency and earnings, in a concern over the potential financial aftermath of global warming. In his address to the members of parliament, British Prime Minister David Cameron on Monday said Britain would not pay an additional 1.7 billion pounds ($2.74 billion) as part of its contribution to the European Union. The EU says a recent upward revision to Britain’s gross national income during 2002-2013 triggered the additional contributions. Scandals in the financial markets are not caused by just a “few bad apples”, and financial regulators are set to impose more regulation on the sector to reclaim public trust, Bank of England Deputy Governor of markets and banking, Nemat Shafik said.

Britain’s Co-operative Bank named Dennis Holt as its new chairman, as the bank aims to recover from a high-profile drugs scandal, senior management departures and its near collapse.

 

NYT

* Madison Square Garden Co said on Monday it was exploring a potential breakup of itself, a move that would separate the New York Knicks and Rangers professional sports teams from the company’s live entertainment business. (http://nyti.ms/1tBS74T)

* Adding to pressure on the guardrail manufacturer Trinity Industries Inc, Virginia said on Monday it planned to remove the company’s products after it failed to meet a state deadline to supply documentation for new crash testing. (http://nyti.ms/1tBRzf9)

* Regal Entertainment Group, which operates the country’s largest theater chain, said on Monday it was exploring “strategic alternatives” that may include a sale of the company. (http://nyti.ms/1zCxoB5)

* Sachem Head Capital Management, a $2 billion hedge fund, disclosed on Monday that it had acquired an economic interest in CDK Global Inc equivalent to a 9.8 percent stake. (http://nyti.ms/1DV09rv)

* Private equity firm Warburg Pincus LLC has raised $4 billion for a new fund, its first dedicated to investments in the energy sector. Warburg Pincus said on Monday that the final amount of capital raised for the fund was $1 billion higher than the initial goal, indicating robust demand among investors. (http://nyti.ms/1ze6PRH)

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** On a day when the Conservative government tabled new legislation to expand the powers of Canadian Security Intelligence Service, sources say Ottawa is now weighing new tools to deal with citizens who openly support terrorist attacks on Canadians or back groups that urge this goal. (http://bit.ly/1teramw)

** The Canada government is beefing up its blacklist of Canadian employers with a plan to include not only businesses found to have broken temporary foreign worker program rules, but also provincial labour laws. (http://bit.ly/12ZjVVF)

** Toronto has rejected the tumultuous reign of the Ford brothers, choosing as their next mayor John Tory, a buttoned-up former provincial politician who won over voters with his promises of good governance and swift improvements to public transit. (http://bit.ly/1oT2rUT)

NATIONAL POST

** Nearly one year after John Chen took the helm of BlackBerry Ltd, the chief executive touted his turnaround plan on Monday. In a post on networking website LinkedIn, Chen said BlackBerry faced “tremendous challenges” when he was appointed last November and he moved to create a culture “that focuses on fixing things and finding solutions, not on the obstacles before you”. (http://bit.ly/10wwTt8)

** Canada’s ambassador in the United States Gary Doer says he has been busy since last week’s terror attack in Ottawa correcting “alarmist” media reports about the shooting. He has spent years pointing out there are nowhere near 500 Canadians fighting with ISIS, as one politician said. (http://bit.ly/1wDcbRZ)

** Royal Canadian Mounted Police Commissioner Bob Paulson says the video made by the gunman in last week’s attack on the National War Memorial contains evidence that the shooting was driven by political and ideological motives. Paulson hopes that it will eventually be released to the public. (http://bit.ly/1tDmN5A)

 

China

CHINA SECURITIES JOURNAL

– China should select a number of qualified cities to develop free trade zones following the progress made in Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone (FTZ), President Xi Jinping said during a meeting on Monday.

– China should be cautious about selling state assets too cheaply if it sells shares through private placement and should also develop supervision systems, State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council’s Director Chu Xuping said while discussing the main challenges for the ongoing mixed ownership reform.

SHANGHAI SECURITIES NEWS

– China’s Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone(FTZ) should increase foreign businesses’ access by updating the negative list and introduce taxation systems which are in line with international standards for foreign investment, accounting agency PricewaterhouseCoopers said in an assessment report.

– China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) will encourage banks to establish branches in Tibet and will provide preferential credit policy to support its development, said CBRC’s President Shang Fulin during a meeting on Tibet’s financial development.

CHINA DAILY

– A memorandum of understanding (MoU) has been signed between U.S. pharmaceutical firm Johnson & Johnson and Shanghai Ruijin Hospital, to promote scientific research.

– Evergrande Real Estate Group Ltd plans to set up a dairy manufacturing operation in China, it said on Monday.

PEOPLE’S DAILY

– Meeting the cultural needs of people and promoting well-being are the Chinese Communist Party’s governance goals as these will also act as guarantees for the party’s sustainable political leadership, the party mouthpiece said in a commentary

Britain

The Times

PRICE OF OIL COULD TUMBLE TO $80 A BARREL AMID GLUT

Goldman Sachs Group Inc said Brent crude could drop to $80 a barrel next year as the slump that has seen oil prices fall 25 percent in the past five months continues. The investment bank said rising production would outstrip demand and slashed its forecasts by 15 percent. It said Brent crude could hit $85 a barrel in the first quarter of next year, falling to $80 a barrel in the second quarter. (http://thetim.es/1zdUugc)

STRUGGLING SALAMANDER ENERGY CONFIRMS TAKEOVER TALKS

The slump in oil prices is set to claim its first corporate casualty as Salamander Energy Plc confirms it is in talks with two companies about a potential takeover. Ophir Energy Plc, the FTSE 250 explorer, is closing in on a possible 275 million pound deal, but Salamander said it was seeking clarity on the terms of the deal. Another suitor, Cepsa, the Spanish group controlled by Ipic, the Abu Dhabi investment fund, is also circling. Salamander says it has not received details of any proposal from the consortium or any confirmation that it will receive a proper offer. (http://thetim.es/1w9mT4B)

The Guardian

DENNIS HOLT NAMED CHAIRMAN OF CO-OP BANK

A former top retail banker, Dennis Holt, has been named chairman of Co-operative Bank Plc after standing in on an interim basis for the past month. The appointment of Holt, who used to run the high street banking operation of Lloyds TSB, takes place immediately and makes him the third chairman of the troubled bank in the last 18 months. (http://bit.ly/1u0qC5T)

ALEX SALMOND WELCOMES FLYBE FLIGHTS BETWEEN LONDON CITY AND SCOTLAND

First Minister of Scotland Alex Salmond has welcomed Flybe Group Plc’s launch of new services from Scotland to London City airport, saying they would provide business travellers with an alternative to Heathrow and reduce British Airways overcharging. Flybe launched operations from London City on Monday with six routes connecting Britain and Ireland to the capital’s financial district. Scotland is a key beneficiary with multiple daily services to Edinburgh, Aberdeen and Inverness. (http://bit.ly/1wwgi39)

Sky News

CAMERON: UK WILL NOT MEET 1.7 BLN STG EU BILL DEMAND

British Prime Minister David Cameron insists there is “no pressing need” for Britain to pay 1.7 billion pounds ($2.74 billion) to the EU – despite a warning of a substantial fine. The surcharge was made public at an EU summit last week, but the Prime Minister said Britain would not meet the Dec. 1 deadline. (http://bit.ly/ZUr4Vl)

MAJOR BANKS TO TOP UP PPI BILL TO OVER 22 BLN STG

Britain’s five biggest banks are poised to take their aggregate bill for miss-selling payment protection insurance (PPI) past 22 billion pounds, underlining its status as the most costly scandal in the industry’s history. Barclays Plc, HSBC Holdings Plc, Lloyds Banking Group Plc and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc will all use their quarterly results statements during the next week to top up PPI compensation provisions. (http://bit.ly/1rMhxXP)

 

 

Fly On The Wall Pre-Market Buzz

ECONOMIC REPORTS

Domestic economic reports scheduled for today include:
Durable goods orders for September at 8:30–consensus up 0.9%
S&P Case-Shiller 20-city home price index for August at 9:00–consensus up 0.2%
Consumer confidence for October at 10:00–consensus 86.8
Richmond Fed manufacturing index for October at 10:00–consensus 10

ANALYST RESEARCH

Upgrades

Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at RW Baird
Core Laboratories (CLB) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley
Dril-Quip (DRQ) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley
DryShips (DRYS) upgraded to Outperform from Underperform at Imperial Capital
GOL Linhas (GOL) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James
Madison Square Garden (MSG) upgraded to Buy from Hold at ISI Group
STMicroelectronics (STM) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citigroup
Trinity Industries (TRN) upgraded to Positive from Neutral at Susquehanna
Twitter (TWTR) upgraded to Hold from Sell at Pivotal Research
Wal-Mart de Mexico (WMMVY) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays
Wright Medical (WMGI) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital
XL Group (XL) upgraded to Hold from Sell at Deutsche Bank

Downgrades

Armstrong World (AWI) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays
Basic Energy (BAS) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo
Bunge (BG) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan
C&J Energy (CJES) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo
Cementos Pacasmayo (CPAC) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays
Exact Sciences (EXAS) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Stephens
Forum Energy (FET) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley
Helmerich & Payne (HP) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo
Nabors Industries (NBR) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo
Oceaneering (OII) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley
PRGX Global (PRGX) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at RW Baird
Patterson-UTI (PTEN) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo
Pioneer Energy (PES) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo
Plum Creek Timber (PCL) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill
Sarepta (SRPT) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at RW Baird
Thoratec (THOR) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays
Twitter (TWTR) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill
Twitter (TWTR) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Nomura
Twitter (TWTR) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital
Twitter (TWTR) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Stifel
Washington REIT (WRE) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo
Wright Medical (WMGI) downgraded to Buy from Strong Buy at Needham

Initiations

Dermira (DERM) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup
FMSA Holdings (FMSA) initiated with a Buy at KeyBanc
FMSA Holdings (FMSA) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman
FMSA Holdings (FMSA) initiated with an Outperform at Cowen
GoPro (GPRO) initiated with an Outperform at Wedbush
HSN, Inc. (HSNI) initiated with a Buy at Brean Capital
Kite Pharma (KITE) initiated with a Buy at Canaccord
ValueVision (VVTV) initiated with a Buy at Brean Capital
Vivint Solar (VSLR) initiated with an Equal Weight at Barclays
Yodlee (YDLE) initiated with a Buy at BofA/Merrill
Yodlee (YDLE) initiated with a Buy at Goldman
Yodlee (YDLE) initiated with a Neutral at UBS
Yodlee (YDLE) initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse
Yodlee (YDLE) initiated with an Outperform at Pacific Crest

COMPANY NEWS

GM’s (GM) Warren Transmission Plant to build electric drive unit for Volt. CEO Mary Barra will announce capital investments of nearly $300M in Michigan between now and the end of the year
Madison Square Garden (MSG) board unanimously approved plan to explore spin-off
Barclays (BCS) said it plans to cut 9,000 jobs across the business by the end of 2017
Lloyds Banking (LYG) said it sees 9,000 job reductions by end of 2017
Gartner said worldwide shipments of 3D printers to reach over 217,000 in 2015 (DDD, XONE, ADSK, MTLS, VJET, SSYS)
Amazon.com (AMZN) to invest $75M and create 1,000 jobs in first Illinois facility
UBS (UBS) said no agreemment reached with DOJ over foreign exchange
Wright Medical (WMGI), Tornier (TRNX) agreed to merge in $3.3B transaction
Receptos (RCPT) said RPC1063 Phase 2 trial met primary and all secondary endpoints
Regal Entertainment (RGC) announced a $1.00 per share special dividend retained Morgan Stanley to explore strategic alternatives, including a potential sale

EARNINGS

Companies that beat consensus earnings expectations last night and today include:

LabCorp (LH), Capella Education (CPLA), Spirit Airlines (SAVE), CIT Group (CIT), Harris (HRS), Sensata (ST), Washington Federal (WAFD), Centene (CNC), Radware (RDWR), Aetna (AET), DuPont (DD), VASCO Data Security (VDSI), BP (BP), Novartis (NVS), HomeStreet (HMST), German American Bancorp (GABC), Kadant (KAI), First Interstate (FIBK), Arlington Asset Investment (AI), Seacor Holdings (CKH), Alliance Holdings (ahgp), Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP), Ferro (FOE), XL Group (XL), Cliffs Natural (CLF), NBT Bancorp (NBTB), HealthSouth (HLS), Seacoast Banking (SBCF), Mavenir Systems (MVNR), Reinsurance Group (RGA), Berkshire Hills Bancorp (BHLB), Compass Minerals (CMP), Advent Software (ADVS), Hartford Financial (HIG), Brixmor (BRX), MicroStrategy (MSTR), Bank of Hawaii (BOH), GigOptix (GIG), PMC-Sierra (PMCS), Intevac (IVAC), Sanmina (SANM), Luminex (LMNX), Cognex (CGNX), Integrated Device (IDTI), Plum Creek Timber (PCL), Denny’s (DENN), Allison Transmission (ALSN), Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD), Amgen (AMGN), Heartland Financial (HTLF), Regal Entertainment (RGC)

Companies that missed consensus earnings expectations include:

CONSOL (CNX), Medidata (MDSO), Bio-Techne (TECH), Independent Bank (IBTX), Stock Building Supply (STCK), Whirlpool (WHR), Portland General Electric (POR), T-Mobile (TMUS), PRGX Global (PRGX), Owens & Minor (OMI), Manitowoc (MTW), Masco (MAS), Hudson Valley (HVB), Orchid Island Capital (ORC), Park National (PRK), Innophos Holdings (IPHS), Artisan Partners (APAM), PartnerRe (PRE), Symetra Financial (SYA), Blue Capital (BCRH), Ducommun (DCO), Amkor Technology (AMKR), Montpelier Re (MRH), Meru Networks (MERU), Knowles (KN)

Companies that matched consensus earnings expectations include:

1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS), First BanCorp (FBP), Universal Health (UHS), Flushing Financial (FFIC), Twitter (TWTR), Monolithic Power (MPWR), TriplePoint Venture (TPVG), ANADIGICS (ANAD)

NEWSPAPERS/WEBSITES

YouTube (GOOG) may charge for new services, Re/code reports
SEC undecided on Bank of America (BAC) business curbs, WSJ reports
More than 1M credit cards registered on Apple Pay (AAPL) in first 72 hours, Re/code reports
Apple CEO (AAPL) says Apple Pay in 220,000 locations already, Business Insider reports
NYC boy with Ebola-like symptoms tests negative for disease, WSJ says (PPHM, TKMR, SRPT, BCRX, CMRX, NLNK, LAKE, APT, SMED)

SYNDICATE

EnLink Midstream (ENLK) files to sell $350M shares of common units
Hannon Armstrong (HASI) 4M share Spot Secondary priced at $13.60
Inogen (INGN) files to sell 2.1M shares of common stock for holders
Pebblebrook Hotel (PEB) files to sell 3.2M common shares of beneficial interest
Regulus Therapeutics (RGLS) files to sell $80M of common stock




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1u2CZyl Tyler Durden