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The last ten days or so have seen an almost unprecedented collapse in gold’s realized volatility…

Source: Bloomberg

…as the price of the precious metal hovered just below its crucial technical 50-day moving-average level…

Source: Bloomberg

As we posted on X, this created a coiled spring like tension in the markets, that may have just been broken by news from Beijing as Reuters reports that China resumed gold purchases in November after a six-month pause (which ended an 18-mnth buying streak) and also launched (another) major stimulus effort.

“Falling U.S. interest rates and ongoing solid demand from central banks are supporting the gold price. (It) Was definitely good to see again purchases by the Chinese central bank last month, but other central banks have been also buying large quantities,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

That prompted a jump in the barbarous relic this morning…

Source: Bloomberg

Robust central bank buying, monetary policy easing and geopolitical tensions have driven gold to multiple record highs this year, setting the metal on track for its best year since 2010 with a over 28% increase so far.

“The decision to increase gold holdings, particularly following Trump’s recent election victory, reflects the PBOC’s proactive approach to safeguarding economic stability amid evolving global conditions,” OCBC analysts said in a note.

Zero-yielding bullion thrives in a low interest rate environment and is considered a hedge against political and economic uncertainty.

Adding to political uncertainty in the Middle East, Syrian rebels seized Damascus, forcing President Bashar al-Assad to flee to Russia, ending 13 years of civil war and over 50 years of Assad family rule.

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

We previously discussed the defamation lawsuit brought by Navy veteran Zachary Young against CNN and anchor Jake Tapper. Young has been doing well in court and last week he won on additional major issues against CNN. In a pair of orders, the jury will be allowed to award punitive damages and his experts would be allowed to be heard by the jury on the damages in the case. It also found that the Navy veteran was not a public figure and thus is not subject to the higher standard of proof associated with that status.

The punitive damages decision is particularly interesting legally. It could prove financially onerous for the struggling network, which has plunging ratings and has reduced staff.

The court found that CNN’s “retraction” was insufficient to remove punitive damages from the table. In my torts class, we discuss retraction statutes and the requirements of time and clarity. I specifically discussed the CNN case.

The report at the heart of the case aired on a Nov. 11, 2021 segment on CNN’s “The Lead with Jake Tapper” and was shared on social media and (a different version) on CNN’s website. In the segment, Tapper tells his audience ominously how CNN correspondent Alex Marquardt discovered “Afghans trying to get out of the country face a black market full of promises, demands of exorbitant fees, and no guarantee of safety or success.”

Marquardt piled on in the segment, claiming that “desperate Afghans are being exploited” and need to pay “exorbitant, often impossible amounts” to flee the country. He then named Young and his company as an example of that startling claim.

The damages in the case could be massive but Young was facing the higher New York Times v. Sullivan standard of “actual malice,” requiring a showing of knowing falsehood or a reckless disregard of the truth. Judge Roberts previously found that “Young sufficiently proffered evidence of actual malice, express malice, and a level of conduct outrageous enough to open the door for him to seek punitive damages.”

The evidence included messages from Marquardt that he wanted to “nail this Zachary Young mfucker” and thought the story would be Young’s “funeral.” After promising to “nail” Young, CNN editor Matthew Philips responded: “gonna hold you to that cowboy!” Likewise, CNN senior editor Fuzz Hogan described Young as “a shit.”

As is often done by media, CNN allegedly gave Young only two hours to respond before the story ran. It is a typical ploy of the press to claim that they waited for a response while giving the target the smallest possible window.

In this case, Young was able to respond in the short time and Marquardt messaged a colleague, “fucking Young just texted.”

That record supports a showing of actual malice. However, CNN wanted to avoid punitive damages with a claim of retraction. Under Florida’s Section §770.02(1), a publication seeking this protection must publish a “full and fair correction, apology or retraction.” While the statute does not define “full and fair” it does specify that the retraction shall be “published in the same editions or corresponding issues of the newspaper or periodical” where the original article appeared and ‘in as conspicuous place and type’ as the original, or for a broadcast “at a comparable time.”

In this case, Jake Tapper made the following statement on March 25, 2022:

“And before we go, a correction. In November, we ran a story about Afghans desperate to pay high sums beyond the reach of average Afghans. The story included a lead-in and banner throughout the story that referenced a black market. The use of the term black market in the story was in error. The story included reporting on Zachary Young, a private operator who had been contacted by family members of Afghans trying to flee the country. We didn’t mean to suggest that Mr. Young participated in the black market. We regret the error and to Mr. Young, we apologize.”

However, the court noted:

“The retraction/correction was not made during the other television shows in which the Segment aired. No retraction, correction or apology was posted on any online article or with any social media posting. Defendant’s representatives referred to the statement made on the Jake Tapper show as a correction rather than a retraction.”

Not only did the court find that insufficient, but it menacingly added, “the Court finds that there is an issue of material fact as to whether Defendant published a full and fair retraction as required by §770.02 for the televised segment and no retraction for the social media and online article postings, which could be additional evidence of actual malice.”

This is relatively new ground for the Florida courts and will undoubtedly be appealed in time. For now, punitive damages will remain an option for the jury. The message to news organizations is that minimizing retractions can produce a critical loss of the coverage of the common statutory provisions protecting the media.

It is also worth noting that Young was found to be a private individual and not a “public figure.” After the Supreme Court handed down New York Times v. Sullivan, it extended the actual malice standard from public officials to public figures. In Gertz v. Robert Welch, Inc., 418 U.S. 323, 345 (1974), the Court wrote:

“Hypothetically, it may be possible for someone to become a public figure through no purposeful action of his own, but the instances of truly involuntary public figures must be exceedingly rare. For the most part those who attain this status have assumed roles of especial prominence in the affairs of society. Some occupy positions of such persuasive power and influence that they are deemed public figures for all purposes. More commonly, those classed as public figures have thrust themselves to the forefront of particular public controversies in order to influence the resolution of the issues involved. In either event, they invite attention and comment.”

The Supreme Court has held that public figure status applies when  someone “thrust[s] himself into the vortex of [the] public issue [and] engage[s] the public’s attention in an attempt to influence its outcome.” A limited-purpose public figure status applies if someone voluntarily “draw[s] attention to himself” or allows himself to become part of a controversy “as a fulcrum to create public discussion.” Wolston v. Reader’s Digest Association, 443 U.S. 157, 168 (1979).

In creating this higher burden, the Court sought to create “breathing space” for the media by articulating that standard for both public officials and public figures. Public figures are viewed as having an enhanced ability to defend themselves and engaging in “self-help” in the face of criticism. The Court also viewed these figures as thrusting themselves into the public eye, voluntarily assuming the risk of heightened criticism. I have previously written about the continuing questions over the inclusion of public figures with public officials in tort actions.

However, the court found that Young did not trip this wire.

“Young’s limited posts do not constitute him thrusting himself ‘to the forefront’ of the Afghanistan evacuation ‘controversy.’ In total, Plaintiffs worked for four companies and evacuated 22 people from Afghanistan. Per Defendant’s Segment, ‘[t]here [were] fewer than Page 13 of 34100 American citizens in Afghanistan who [were] ready to leave’ and ‘countless Afghans, including thousands who worked for or aided the US . . . who are frantically trying to leave.’ While Young was clearly trying to advertise his services, it can hardly be said that he played a sufficiently central role or was at the forefront in being able to influence the resolution of all those unable to escape Afghanistan. He was not going to get all these thousands of people out, nor was he ever intending to as he (according to his posts and testimony) was only assisting those with sponsors. He also was not going to convince the Taliban to let these folks leave the country. As such, Plaintiffs do not meet the test for this second suggested controversy to be labeled as limited public figures.”

The court also ruled that Young would be allowed to keep his economic damages expert witness, Richard Bolko, a ruling that, in conjunction with the punitive damages matter, could spell real trouble for CNN.

*  *  *

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro professor of public interest law at George Washington University and the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.”

It’s desperation time in China again.

Two months after Beijing vowed it would unleash a fiscal bazooka, sending Chinese stocks soaring, only to see the entire move reverse as the market was promptly disappointed by yet another empty promise by the world’s second largest economy, on Monday China’s top leaders signaled another round of bold economic support next year using their most direct language on stimulus in years, as Beijing braces for a trade war when Donald Trump takes office.

President Xi Jinping’s decision-making Politburo vowed to embrace a “moderately loose” monetary policy in 2025, signaling more rate cuts ahead and shifting from a “prudent” strategy that’s held for 14 years, and reverting to the policy stance that defined the post-GFC world until 2010.

As Bloomberg reports, the 24-man body also vowed “more proactive” fiscal policy at its monthly huddle, according to the official Xinhua News Agency, raising expectations for Beijing to widen the fiscal deficit from 3% at the annual parliamentary session in March. That would open the door to more central government borrowing to shore up the faltering economy.

Still, China’s leaders ticked off nearly every major problem plaguing the economy, with direct pledges to “stabilize” the stock market as well as the property sector fighting a years long slump. In a first, cadres touted “extraordinary” measures for counter-cyclical policy adjustment, language analysts said could hint at greater bond issuance or a stabilization fund to support the stock market. Among the various (laughable) promises were the following”

• China’s monetary policy to be moderately loose next year
• Fiscal policy to be more proactive
• To enrich and improve policy toolbox
• To boost consumption and investment efficiency
• To step up extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments
• To deepen high-level opening up
• To effectively prevent, resolve risks in key areas
• To stabilize foreign trade and investments
• To implement more proactive macro policies
• To expand domestic demands in all aspects
• To enhance party’s leadership on economic work
• To lift investment returns
• To firmly prevent systemic risks
• To promote urban-rural integrated developments

Policymakers also elevated the importance of boosting consumption, making that the top goal of the meeting — potentially a sign the work conference will make domestic demand the priority for 2025. Xi’s push for manufacturing to propel the economy has seen the US and European Union complain China is flooding their markets with cheap goods and prompted calls for Beijing to get its own consumers spending.

Of course, getting all these tasks completed would cost trillions (in dollars) in new debt, which is why gold has resumed its surge higher. And just like in September when Beijing unleashed its latest promise to start a new Golden Age for China, the gusher of superlatives flooded in: the Politburo’s December meeting “sent the most aggressive stimulus tone in a decade,” Morgan Stanley economists including Robin Xing wrote in a research note, adding that “while the tone is very positive, implementation remains uncertain.” 

“The wording in this politburo meeting statement is unprecedented,” said Zhaopeng Xing, senior China strategist at ANZ Bank China Co Ltd. “We think the commentary points to strong fiscal expansion, big rate cut and asset buying. The policy tone shows strong confidence.”

Of course, this won’t be the first time China has vowed to stimulate… or the second, or the third. And, sure enough, after an initial burst higher, the euphoria quickly fizzled and China-linked stocks in the US dipped after bursting higher. Meanwhile, the offshore yuan erased losses to trade modestly stronger on bets China’s economy will recover due to monetary and fiscal stimulus. Regional currencies also got a boost from the Monday readout, with Australian dollar rising 0.3% and New Zealand’s currency trimming losses. That said the moves were far more muted than the eruption observed in late September when the world was convinced a true bazooka was coming only to be left with a big bag of nothing.

While Politburo readouts never reveal new numerical economic targets, the vaguely worded statements give important clues on future policy. The December conclave sets the agenda for the larger Central Economic Work Conference that crafts priorities, such as the annual growth goal. That meeting is set to begin Wednesday.

Other highlights of the Politburo meeting included:

• Signaled 2024 growth target of “around 5%” will be hit by saying full-year goals will be met “smoothly”
• Reaffirmed the overall principle of “using progress to promote stability”
• Pledged to continue push for technology innovation and the construction of a modern supply chain
• Vowed to implement economic reforms, including some “iconic” measures
• Repeated a pledge to open up the economy, stabilize foreign investors and trade
• Vowed to strengthen political supervision as part of Xi’s signature anti-corruption drive, suggesting party cadres will face more close scrutiny of their loyalty to China’s top leader.

“The wording in this Politburo meeting statement is unprecedented,” said Zhaopeng Xing, senior strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. “The policy tone shows strong confidence against Trump’s threats,” he noted, referencing the US president-elect’s vow to impose a 60% tariff on Chinese exports that would decimate bilateral trade.

Perhaps the most notable change was Beijing’s decision to adopt a “moderately loose” monetary policy; the last time China did that was in the Global Financial Crisis as part of a bazooka stimulus package to prop up the economy. That’s something Beijing has vowed to avoid repeating, with officials providing just enough support to hit this year’s growth goal of around 5% without loading up debt.

The Politburo readout, however, sent markets a message Xi is feeling a new urgency. It’s a reminder “top leaders’ view on economic conditions has shifted substantially compared to last quarter,” said Martin Rasmussen, senior strategist at macro research firm Exante Data. And yet, for all the talk, Beijing has yet to follow through with any tangible action which is why the market continues to ignore every and all such promise from Beijing.

After second quarter growth fell short, policymakers started rolling out stimulus in late September. Economists widely expect another cut to the amount of cash banks have to keep in reserve before the year is out, while a rate adjustment is more likely to fall in the first quarter of 2025. According to ANZ Bank’s Xing, the message points to a big rate cuts: “We think it points to strong fiscal expansion, big rate cut and asset buying,” Xing said adding that “special LGBs will be used to buy homes and stock stability funds may be introduced. The policy tone shows strong confidence against Trump threats.”

“The statement looks to manage market expectation. Any disappointing number at the late March NPC will hit the market.”

As well as rising trade tensions, China is battling its longest streak of deflation this century. That problem was on display earlier Monday in data showing producer prices falling in November for a 26th straight month. Consumer prices also rose at their slowest pace in five months, hovering around zero. Falling prices have undercut the economy’s 4.8% growth so far this year, eating into corporate profits and pushing companies to cut investment as well as wages. While the People’s Bank of China has slashed interest rates and offered more cash for banks several times, authorities have found it hard to spur greater borrowing.

The Politburo promised to “forcefully lift consumption” and drive domestic demand “in all aspects,” without directly mentioning the problem of deflation. That could indicate more rounds of the cash-for-clunkers program that’s operated as a consumption voucher, encouraging people to buy new electronics at a discount in exchange for their old products.

China’s Premier Li Qiang vowed to deploy “every means possible” to boost consumption at a meeting on Monday with heads of major international economic organizations in Beijing, including the International Monetary Fund, which has long called on China to expand domestic demand.

While the latest language on fiscal policy doesn’t mark a fundamental shift from the “pro-active” adopted in 2008, the addition of the word “more” signals government spending will be dialed up. A state media commentary Friday said Beijing had ample room to raise its budget deficit next year.

Fiscal spending is widely regarded as the most important element in any stimulus package, since private demand from households and companies has dwindled. While government spending has been weak this year, in November the Finance Ministry launched a $1.4 trillion rescue program for indebted local governments to free up regional officials to boost growth.

The specifics of the government’s budget, including the fiscal deficit and the amount of bonds it plans to issue, will likely only be revealed in March during the annual legislative session. But the Politburo readout will likely raise expectations for those targets.
“The Politburo statement is very positive,” He Wei, China economist at Gavekal Dragonomics. “It has everything that people wanted.”  

Looking ahead, following the December Politburo meeting, the annual CEWC will be held mid-week, during which top policymakers will communicate the government’s growth target and budget for 2025 to local governments. Local governments in turn will announce their own 2025 growth and investment targets in their local “Two Sessions” (in January-February), although no national targets will be officially announced until next March’s “Two Sessions”.

Today’s meeting adds conviction to Goldman’s view that fiscal easing will do the heavy lifting to stabilize growth, “but the composition of this easing will likely differ substantially from past cycles, with more focus on consumption, high-tech manufacturing, and risk containment rather than traditional infrastructure and property investment” according to  Goldman China anlyst Lisheng Wang. He adds that during his recent marketing trips in China, onshore investors broadly expect the growth target for 2025 to remain unchanged from this year at “around 5%” to rebuild confidence, and the official fiscal deficit to be much higher than in 2024. For policy stimulus next year, the bank expects policymakers to expand the augmented fiscal deficit meaningfully (by 1.8pp of GDP in our estimation), cut policy rates considerably (by 40bp), and step up easing measures for the property sector (see our expectations for 2025 budget numbers from our 2025 outlook).

More in the full Goldman note available to pro subs.

Over the weekend of fast-moving, politically cataclysmic events in Syria which saw Bashar al-Assad flee the country and the US-designated terror organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham take over Damascus and the whole country, the future fate of Russia’s military bases on the coast was an open question.

Some unverified videos purported to show the Russians move large military hardware inside Syria, but it was anything but clear whether the two key bases of Khmeimim and Tartus would keep Russian troops and assets stationed there.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has addressed the speculation and rumors. For now it appears the Russian military still oversees these bases, and they are not currently under direct threat. Peskov said their future presence will depend on the new leaders of Syria.

“Currently, we are witnessing a period of transformation and extreme instability,” Peskov told a press briefing Monday. He described events in Syria as a surprise to Russia and to the world. “It will take time before we can engage in serious conversations with those who hold power,” he added.

Russian troops have been in Syria going back decades, into Soviet times, and Tartus has been home to the Russian navy’s only Mediterranean port. In 2017, an agreement was inked between Moscow and Damascus for Russian troops to stay at the two bases for about another half-century. Those plans are obviously now up in the air.

Russian media is reporting that the armed groups now in charge of Syria have assured the safety of the Russian bases and personnel: 

According to reports, the Syrian armed opposition has approached the two key Russian military bases. A local source told TASS news agency that they are not currently under threat. “Opposition forces have neither invaded nor do they plan to encroach upon the territory of Russian military installations, which are operating normally,” the source said.

The militant groups that overthrew former President Bashar Assad’s government in Syria have assured the safety of Russia’s military installations and diplomatic missions within the country, a source from the Kremlin told TASS on Sunday.

Whether this pledge of safety is authentic or actually enforceable is another question. The Russian military is without doubt on high alert in Syria. It now has no local state institution with which it can partner or coordinate. Over years of the prior conflict, the base was attacked by small drones on several occasions, triggering anti-air defensive measures.

The Kremlin has also on Monday confirmed Russian President Vladimir Putin personally approved Bashar Assad’s asylum and that of his family.

Peskov said however that no meetings between the two are scheduled or expected. “There is nothing to say regarding Assad’s whereabouts,” he said. “Such decisions cannot be made without the head of state; it is his decision,” the spokesman described in reference to Putin.

Nothing speaks louder than Russia relocating its S-400 and S-300 air defense systems, including radar units, from Khmeimim Air Base, located southeast of Latakia and operated by Russia, to the sea port of Tartus. pic.twitter.com/GgqRS8wYb6

— Basha باشا (@BashaReport) December 7, 2024

Many Syrians who for many years of grinding war were fiercely loyal to Assad and his government are currently angry that he fled the capital, and that his forces folded so fast. Some feel that all the sacrifices made as the country endured Western and Gulf sponsored proxy war since 2011 have become futile or in vain.

Authored by Michael Washburn via The Epoch Times,

Jurors will return to a lower Manhattan courthouse on Dec. 9 to consider the charge of criminally negligent homicide against Daniel Penny, following the dismissal of the other charge he faced, second-degree manslaughter, on Dec. 6.

Both charges stemmed from a May 1, 2023, incident in which Penny put Jordan Neely into a chokehold after Neely came onto an uptown F train at Manhattan’s Second Avenue station and began shouting and threatening passengers.

Neely did not survive, and Penny’s trial has turned on questions about the causes of his death and whether Penny’s actions were justified.

The case has drawn national and international attention, with some viewing Penny as a hero who put his own life on the line to protect men, women, and children on the subway, and others branding him a vigilante who applied too much force.

Last week, jurors began their deliberations on Dec. 3 and continued through to Dec. 6, making several requests to Judge Maxwell Wiley for a second chance to review key pieces of evidence and testimony first presented to the jury in November.

The length of the deliberations, and the repeated requests to see evidence again, led to speculation that the jury might be having trouble achieving unanimity about Penny’s guilt and that things could even be headed for a mistrial.

Shortly after 11 a.m. on Dec. 6, the judge announced that he had received a note from the jury, stating: “At this time, we are unable to come to a unanimous vote on Count One, manslaughter in the second degree.”

This led to a discussion in which the judge told Penny’s defense counsel and the prosecutors that his official recognition that the jury was deadlocked on the first charge was required before the jury could give up discussing it and move on to the second count.

“I still have to decide that a unanimous agreement is impossible on Count One before they can render a verdict on Count Two,” he said.

The judge then asked the lawyers on both sides how they felt about the situation.

Prosecutor Dafna Yoran was not against continued deliberations, but Penny’s counsel tried to persuade the judge not to issue an Allen order directing the jury to press ahead and continue to try to reach unanimity.

But the judge issued the order anyway and had the jury come back into the courtroom.

Once they were seated, the judge reminded them that it is not supposed to be easy to achieve unanimity in criminal cases, but stressed that he had faith in their ability to reach a decision based on the evidence and the law.

The judge also explicitly directed the jury not to make a decision based on personal feelings of like or dislike for one or other party in the trial.

However, late on the afternoon of Dec. 6, the status of the deliberations had not changed.

The jury still could not come to a unanimous decision on the second-degree manslaughter charge.

The judge agreed to dismiss that charge, leaving the jury to consider the charge of criminally negligent homicide when it resumes deliberations on Dec. 9.

S&P futures are flat after hitting a fresh record highs on Friday and ceding brief gains sparked by China’s monetary-policy shift, as investors focused on an upsurge in geopolitical risk and the outlook for interest-rate cuts in the US and other major economies. As of 8:00am, S&P futures dipped 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futs were down 0.2% after rising earlier following China’s announcement that authorities will embrace a “moderately loose” strategy next year. More steps on the fiscal side could be unveiled at Wednesday’s Central Economic Work Conference. While Beijing’s pledge boosted Asian markets and supported US-listed Chinese shares in premarket trading, gains elsewhere were short-lived with South Korean stocks plunging as the political crisis deepened. Pre-mkt, Mag7 is mixed while bond yields are flat to up 2bps. the Bloomberg dollar index is flat even as the yen tumbles as hopes that the BOJ will hike in December once again crumble. Commodities are stronger, led by energy and base metals, as moves are being driven by the positive stimulus news from China. As the Fed enters its blackout window, the key macro data points are CPI/PPI, though it would take a tail-risk type of print to move the Fed away from cutting next. 

US premarket gainers included Apollo Global (APO) and  Workday (WDAY) as the stocks are set to replace Qorvo and Amentum in the S&P 500 Index. Apollo +6%, Workday +9%. Super Micro Computer gained 8% after the embattled server maker said Nasdaq had granted the firm more time to become compliant with listing rules. To the downside, Nvidia slipped premarket on news of a probe in China over suspicions the the AI chipmaker broke anti-monopoly laws. Here are the other notable premarket movers:

• Alibaba (BABA) rises 6% along with other Chinese stocks listed in the US after the country’s top leaders provided a sign of further stimulus ahead. Baidu (BIDU) +5%, PDD (PDD) +8%
• Arcellx (ACLX) rises 6% after the drug developer gave data from a mid-stage trial of its experimental therapy for a form of blood cancer, which Baird says appears to support “best-in-class” efficacy for the drug.
• BioAge Labs (BIOA) sinks 69% following news late Friday that the clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company is halting a Phase-2 trial evaluating its azelaprag drug for the treatment of obesity.
• Interpublic (IPG) jumps 13% after the Wall Street Journal reported that Omnicom is in advanced talks to buy the advertising and marketing company.
• Macy’s (M) rises 2% after the Wall Street Journal reported that activist investor Barington Capital has built a position in the department-store operator and plans to push for changes, including the establishment of a separate real estate unit.
• Nvidia (NVDA) slips 1% as China has opened a probe into the company over suspicions that the US chipmaker has broken anti-monopoly laws.
• Reddit (RDDT) rises 5% after a Morgan Stanley analyst admits he missed the boat on the company’s huge post-initial public offering gains. Yet he feels there’s still time to jump aboard.

In a desperate attempt to once again jawbone the markets higher, China’s top leaders doubled down on what they did in September, and signaled bolder economic support next year using their most direct language on stimulus in years, as Beijing braces for a trade war when Donald Trump takes office. President Xi Jinping’s decision-making Politburo vowed to embrace a “moderately loose” monetary policy in 2025, signaling more rate cuts ahead and shifting from a “prudent” strategy that’s held for 14 years, although following the huge disappointment that was the September fiscal stimulus “bazooka”, traders quickly took profit on the meager gains demanding deeds not words.

“The somewhat looser monetary policy stance by the Politburo is welcome news, though it won’t materially change the situation for the Chinese economy,” said Joachim Klement, head of strategy, economics and ESG at Panmure Liberum. “What is needed is substantially more fiscal stimulus that is supported by a looser monetary policy.”

Elsewhere, crude oil as well as gold prices rose after the toppling of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria unsettled an already restive Middle East. South Korea also risks prolonged political impasse, with opposition lawmakers pushing for another impeachment vote on President Yoon Suk Yeol. That saw Korean markets extending declines, sparking fresh selling in crypto, while the won fell about 1% against the dollar.

Amid the geopolitical turmoil, investors will turn their attention to this week’s central bank meetings. The ECB meeting for the first time since the collapse of governments in Paris and Berlin, is expected to cut interest rates, as are the Bank of Canada and the Swiss National Bank. Australia’s central bank will likely keep rates on hold. US inflation data will be another key event, potentially determining whether the Federal Reserve eases policy again at its Dec. 18 meeting. While the November jobs report indicated on Friday that the labor market is cooling enough to allow a rate cut, the inflation print could heighten uncertainty, should it show price pressures accelerating last month by more than the 0.3% forecast in a survey.

“Inflation remains too high regardless, which has been limiting the central bank’s ability to loosen monetary policy,” Daniela Sabin Hathorn, a senior market analyst at Capital.com. told clients in a note. “The current odds show an 87% chance of a 25-bps cut next week, but this could quickly change if the CPI data does not come in as expected.”

European stocks and US equity futures also initially rallied on the China news but have now retreated from the day’s highs though sectors exposed to China, including miners and consumer products, advanced. Among individual stock movers, Turkish construction-related stocks such as Oyak Cimento Fabrikalari AS and Cimsa Cimento Sanayi VE surged as investors bet the companies will play a role in Syria’s reconstruction. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• Europe’s basic resources sector leads gains in the Stoxx 600 benchmark rising as much as 2.9% as copper and iron rise as China’s top leadership announced they would embrace a “moderately loose” monetary policy next year, the first shift in stance since 2011
• BASF gains as much as 3.7%, the most in a month, following an upgrade to buy from hold at Warburg which says “not all is doom and gloom” for the German chemicals firm
• Banco BPM rises as much as 3.9% in Milan trading after Credit Agricole raised its stake in Italy’s third-largest bank, a move aimed at defending its interests in the country
• CompuGroup shares jump as much as 31%, to €21.64, after CVC made a voluntary public takeover offer for the German software company at €22 per share
• Pharming gains as much as 10%, the most since October 2023 after Jefferies initiated buy citing that the current valuation as failing to reflect potential from two rare disease drugs
• HelloFresh shares drop as much as 8.2%, a move that Jefferies analyst Giles Thorne describes as “unjust” after a report that the US Labor Department is investigating allegations concerning the use of child labor at a cooking and packaging facility in Illinois
• DocMorris shares fall nearly 5% after Zuercher Kantonalbank cut its recommendation on the Swiss pharmaceutical products retailer to market perform from outperform, citing a liquidity shortage
• European defense shares fall after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy described talks with US President-elect Donald Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron as “good and productive” in a social media post

Earlier in the session, Asian equities advanced as stocks in Hong Kong staged a late rally after Beijing pledged to support growth. Shares in South Korea continued to drop amid a deepening political crisis. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.4%, after trading in a narrow range earlier in the day. TSMC and Alibaba were among the biggest boosts to the regional gauge. Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong rebounded in the final hour of trading after the nation’s top leaders vowed to ease monetary policy and expand fiscal spending. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index reversed a small drop to end the day 3.1% higher, it’s biggest gain since Oct. 18. The Politburo said it will embrace a “moderately loose” strategy for monetary policy in 2025, marking its first major shift in stance since 2011, and also pledged to “stabilize property and stock markets.” “The wording in this politburo meeting statement is unprecedented,” said Zhaopeng Xing, senior China strategist at ANZ Bank China Co Ltd. “We think the commentary points to strong fiscal expansion, big rate cut and asset buying. The policy tone shows strong confidence.”

Meanwhile, Korea’s benchmark Kospi dropped more than 2% amid the risk of a prolonged stalemate after Saturday’s impeachment motion against President Yoon Suk Yeol failed. The ongoing drama has complicated the government’s efforts to reform corporate governance and eradicate the perennial undervaluation of the nation’s equities.

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar spot index is down. JPY and CHF are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, AUD and NZD outperform. The offshore yuan and commodities climbed after China’s top leaders announced they plan to loosen monetary policy and expand fiscal spending next year.

In rates, Treasuries are narrowly mixed with the yield curve steeper, unwinding a portion of Friday’s rally sparked by November jobs data. Long-end yields are ~2bp cheaper on the day, with 2s10s, 5s30s spreads steeper by 1bp-2bp near session wides. 10-year is around 4.165%, lagging bunds and gilts in the sector by 1.5bp and 3bp.

In commodities, oil gained as the market weighed the fallout from the toppling of the Syrian government, which dealt a blow to longtime backers Russia and Iran. WTI trades within Friday’s range, adding 1.4% to near $68.12. Spot gold rises roughly $24 to trade near $2,657/oz. Spot silver gains 1.5% near $31.

Bitcoin dropped below the 100k mark, to a current session trough of USD 98,274, following a rout in Korean shares as Korean momentum traders liquidated positions to fund stock margin calls. Since Donald Trump became president-elect, nearly USD 10bln has flowed into US ETFs that invest directly in Bitcoin (BTC), Bloomberg reports. This surge in investment is driven by optimism that Trump’s crypto-friendly policies will fuel market growth. The funds now total approximately USD 113bln, BBG added.

Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data calendar includes October wholesale inventories (10am) and November New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations (11am). Fed officials are in self-imposed quiet period ahead of their Dec. 18 Fed policy announcement. This week’s risk events include CPI and PPI reports and coupon auctions beginning Tuesday.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures little changed at 6,098.00
Brent Futures up 1.0% to $71.85/bbl
Gold spot up 0.8% to $2,653.38
US Dollar Index down 0.13% to 105.91

Top Overnight News

• Trump announces Michael Needham will serve as Counsellor of the Department of State, and Christopher Landau to serve as Deputy Secretary of State, via Truth Social.
• Trump aides reportedly contacted Google (GOOG), Meta (META), and Snap (SNAP) over online drug sales, according to The Information.
• Donald Trump told NBC that he has no plans to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair. He also said he had an exchange with Xi Jinping in recent days, without elaborating. BBG
• China will adopt an “appropriately loose” monetary policy next year, the first easing of its stance in some 14 years, alongside a more proactive fiscal policy to spur
• economic growth. RTRS
• Chinese state media said the country has room to increase its borrowing and fiscal deficit in 2025 as investors closely watch to see whether Beijing would use its fiscal firepower to increase stimulus in its key economic meeting next week. BBG
• China’s CPI for Nov fell short of expectations at +0.2% Y/Y (down from +0.3% in Oct and below the consensus of +0.4%) while the PPI deflation eased modestly to -2.5% (vs. -2.9% in Oct and a bit better than the -2.8% consensus). BBG
• South Korea banned President Yoon Suk Yeol from leaving the country as the political crisis deepened. The won fell and the Kospi closed lower, shedding more than 5% since the botched martial law declaration. BBG
• Israel moves to occupy a buffer zone in Syria and launches air strikes against chemical weapons depots as the government looks to reduce the risk of fallout from the Assad downfall. WSJ
• US strikes Islamic State targets in Syria and is monitoring Assad weapons stockpiles to prevent them from falling into the wrong hands. Axios
• Interpublic shares jumped premarket after the WSJ reported Omnicom is in advanced talks to buy the advertising and marketing firm. BBG
• APO (Apollo) and WDAY (Workday) will join the S&P 500 prior to the open of trading on Mon 12/23. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

 

Top Asian News

 

European bourses began the session entirely in the green, with sentiment in the region lifted following the readout from the Chinese Politburo meeting. On that, it noted that China’s fiscal policy is to be more proactive next year and that monetary policy is to be moderately loose. Since, some indices have given back initial gains and slipped into negative territory to display a mixed picture in Europe. European sectors began the European session with a strong positive bias, given the risk-on sentiment vs a current mixed picture. Unsurprisingly, the China-exposed sectors top the pile following the Chinese Politburo meeting; Consumer Products topped the pile, followed closely by Basic Resources. Real Estate is found at the foot of the pile. US equity futures are mixed vs with the initial readout from the Chinese Politburo meeting sparking some modest upside in the price action; upside which has since faded.

Top European News

• Fitch affirmed Hungary at “BBB”, revised outlook to “Stable” from “Negative”

FX

• USD is showing a mixed performance vs. peers (weaker vs. cyclicals, stronger vs. havens). US President-elect Trump over the weekend said he has no plans to remove Powell and said he cannot guarantee Americans will not pay more as a result of tariffs. DXY briefly breached Friday’s high at 106.15 before fading upside and slipping back onto a 105 handle.
• EUR is incrementally firmer against the USD and off worst levels. Focus for the Eurozone this week is on events in Frankfurt with the ECB set to pull the trigger on a 25bps cut. After struggling to hold above 1.06 post-NFP, EUR/USD remains stuck on a 1.05 handle, just above the 1.0550 mark.
• JPY, along with CHF is lagging across the majors as news out of China has triggered a pick-up in sentiment and subsequently weighed on havens. For Japan specifically, focus overnight was on an upward revision to Q3 GDP. USD/JPY is back on a 150 handle with the pair now showing a great deal of direction over the past few sessions.
• GBP is slightly firmer in what has been a catalyst-thin session for the Pound thus far. As such, it is possible that the USD leg of the equation will do the heavy lifting for the pair. Cable has gained a firmer footing on a 1.27 handle.
• Antipodeans are both at the top of the G10 leaderboard following positive commentary out of China in which the Politburo noted that fiscal policy is to be more proactive next year, whilst monetary policy is to be moderately loose. AUD/USD has reclaimed the 0.64 mark but is below Friday’s 0.6455 high. RBA is expected to deliver an unchanged decision on Tuesday.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1870 vs exp. 7.2627 (prev. 7.1848)

Fixed Income

• Mar’25 UST contract is a touch lower after pulling back from highs after positive commentary from the Chinese Politburo which noted that fiscal policy is to be more proactive next year, whilst monetary policy is to be moderately loose; first shift in monetary policy since 2011. The main focus this week will be on US CPI on Wednesday. Mar’25 UST is currently tucked within Friday’s 110.28+ to 111.20+ range.
• European paper is a touch higher but off best levels following updates out of China. For the Eurozone this week, focus will largely be on the ECB’s rate decision which is expected to see the GC deliver a 25bps rate cut with policymakers refraining from publicly backing a 50bps move ahead of the meeting. Bunds are currently holding above the 136 mark and within Friday’s 135.94-136.52 range, with the corresponding 10yr yield back above 2.1%.
• Gilts are marginally higher after moving sideways for the past few sessions. As has been the case for the past several sessions, fresh UK drivers have been lacking. BoE’s Ramsden is due later today. As it stands, the Mar’25 Gilt contract has met resistance at 96.00 with the corresponding 10yr yield holding above 4.25%.
• Amundi tactically downgrades core European Fixed Income to Neutral.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent began the European session on a slightly firmer footing, with the complex lifted amid geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle Eastern region after Syrian fighters toppled the Assad regime. Just ahead of the European cash open, the Chinese Politburo meeting sparked considerable upside in the oil complex, with Brent’Jan 25 rising to a session peak of USD 72.15/bbl.
• In a similar vein to the above, spot gold began the European session on a firmer footing with sentiment lifted amid the geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle Eastern region. Alongside this, Reuters reported that the PBoC resumed gold purchases in November after a six-month hiatus. Upside was also seen following the Politburo release. XAU currently sits at the upper end of a USD 2,627.62-2,651.22/oz range, and just shy of its 50 DMA at 2,667.96/oz.
• Base metals were mixed overnight, with copper initially benefiting from the better-than-feared Chinese PPI figures; thereafter the red-metal moved lower in tandem with a pick-up in the Dollar. After that, metals jumped to session highs following the Chinese Politburo meeting.
• Saudi Arabia set January Arab Light crude OSP to Asia at +USD 0.90 vs Oman/Dubai average (prev. +USD 1.70); NW Europe at -USD 1.25 vs ICE Brent (prev. -0.15); United States at +USD 3.80 vs ASCI (prev. +USD 3.80), according to Reuters.
• Polish pipeline operator Pern said it has restored proper operation of first branch of Western Druzhba pipeline after incident on December 1st, according to Reuters.
• PBoC resumed gold purchases in November after a six-month hiatus, according to Reuters.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israel says it struck suspected chemical weapons sites and long-range rockets in Syria in order to prevent them from falling into the hands of hostile actors, according to Guy Elster.
• Syrian rebel fighters captured the capital Damascus and toppled Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
• Syria’s ousted President Bashar al Assad has arrived in Moscow, according Russian state media. Kremlin sources suggested a deal has been done to ensure the safety of Russian military bases in Syria, according to Reuters.
• Israeli ground forces advanced beyond the demilitarized zone on the Israel-Syria border over the weekend, “marking their first overt entry into Syrian territory since the 1973 October War”, according to Israeli officials cited by NYT
• IDF called Syria ‘fourth front’, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Israeli military was instructed to seize the buffer zone and control points in order to ensure the protection of all Israeli communities in the Golan Heights, according to Israeli Defense Minister Katz.
• Israeli official said that in the coming days, Israel might capture more areas inside Syria, and further deepen the attacks against strategic targets in Syria, to prevent weapons from falling into the hands of the rebels, according to Kann’s Stein.
• Israel’s Channel 13 said “The Israeli army is considering continuing the incursion into Syrian territory to expand the buffer zone in the Golan., according to Sky News Arabia.
• Israel’s Channel 13 said “Israeli intelligence is monitoring what is happening in Iran for fear that the collapse of the axis loyal to it will push it to develop nuclear weapons”, according to Sky News Arabia.
• “US administration officials fear that Assad’s fall will increase pressure on Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to give the green light to produce a nuclear bomb.”, according to Kann News.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said the fall of Assad was a direct result of blows dealt to Hezbollah and Iran by Israel, and added that Israel will not allow any hostile force to establish itself on its borders, according to Reuters.
• Hezbollah pulled all forces out of Syria on Saturday, according to Lebanese security sources cited by Reuters.
• US encouraged Iraq to not get drawn into Syrian unrest, according to a Senior US official cited by Reuters, and US has been in discussions with Turkish officials and US focus is “a new Syria”. Senior US official does not see role for US troops on the ground addressing chemical weapons in Syria.
• US Central Command said its forces conducted dozens of airstrikes on Islamic State camps in central Syria on Sunday, and struck over 75 Islamic State targets in central Syria, according to Reuters.
• US President Biden said the US will support Syria’s neighbours through period of transition, and will speak with leaders in region in coming days and send administration officials, according to Reuters.
• US-backed Syrian Kurdish forces said they are still fighting Turkish-backed forces in Syria’s Manbij, according to Reuters.
• Iran said it will monitor developments in Syria and the region closely, and will adopt appropriate approaches and positions, according to a Foreign Ministry statement, adding that the long-standing and friendly relations between the Iranian and Syrian nations are expected to continue.
• “Iranian Foreign Minister: Conflicts are expected to spread not only to Iraq but to the entire region”, according to Sky News Arabia.
• President-elect Trump’s Middle East envoy met Israel and Qatar PMs to broker a ceasefire, according to the FT.

Geopolitics: Other

• US president-elect Trump said there should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations in Ukraine this is time for Russia’s Putin to act, and China can help, via Truth Social.
• US president-elect Trump, French President Macron and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy had “very good conversation” over the weekend, according to a source close to Macron cited by Reuters.
• Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said on Sunday China has almost doubled the number of warships around Taiwan in the past 24 hours, ahead of what is suspected to be a new round of war games, according to Reuters.
• Taiwan Defence Ministry said it instructed troops to closely monitor situation, maintain high alert on Chinese PLA drills; have raised alert level on Taiwan’s outlying islands; activated combat readiness drills to carry out at strategic locations, according to Reuters.
• Chinese military and coast guard boats have entered waters around Taiwan and the Western Pacific to carry out missions, according to Reuters.
• Taiwan Coast Guard said seven Chinese Coast Guard ships began conducting “grey-zone harassment’ against Taiwan from early Monday, according to Reuters.
• China currently has almost 90 navy and coast ships in the waters near Taiwan, Southern Japanese islands, East and South China Seas, according to Reuters.

US Event Calendar

• 10:00: Oct. Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, prior 0.3%
• 10:00: Oct. Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
• 11:00: Nov. NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations, prior 2.87%

Central Bank speakers

• Dec. 7-Dec. 19: Fed’s External Communications Blackout

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

This morning we published a new chart book, “Curveballs for 2025” which looks at potential realistic positive and negative curveballs that could change the direction of travel for the global economy and markets in 2025. So far this has been a decade of surprises and we have to consider what 2025’s out of consensus surprise will be. In 2020 the pandemic meant the year-ahead outlooks were redundant by the end of Q1, in 2021 a surge in inflation surprised virtually everyone, in 2022 markets were caught off guard by the most aggressive rate-hiking cycle since the 1980s, in 2023, the consensus wrongly expected a US recession and in 2024, no-one expected an S&P 500 return that could hit 30% YTD in the days ahead. So as we look forward to 2025, it’s safe to say that the most surprising thing would actually be a lack of surprises.

Tech and AI could surprise in both directions in 2025 and maybe the answer will come today when I see if I’ve won the school Xmas Fayre “guess how many sweets are in this big glass jar” competition from Saturday. I took a photo of the jar and uploaded it to ChatGPT and asked it to tell me. ChatGPT gave me a range and I plumped for the middle of it. For me this will decide whether AI is hype or the biggest innovation since the wheel!

A further surprise for 2025 would be a hike from the Fed and events like Wednesday’s US CPI will be a key determinant even if the near-term implication will be whether the Fed cut next week or not. After Friday’s mixed payrolls report that went up from around 70% to 85% at the close. So that’s the main event of the week. The ECB meeting the following day will also be a key event with markets pricing in a small chance of a 50bps cut but with 25bps nailed on. Elsewhere the key events of note will be the RBA decision (hold expected), China trade data and Danish and Norwegian CPI tomorrow, the BoC decision on Wednesday (possible consecutive 50bps cut), the Brazilian rate decision (75bps hike to 12% expected), alongside a 10yr UST auction, US PPI, the SNB decision and a 30yr UST auction on Thursday, and the BoJ Tankan quarterly survey on Friday ahead of an “in the balance” BoJ meeting on December 19th where the market is expecting a 36% probability of a hike. See the full week ahead at the end as usual but now we’ll preview the US CPI and the ECB decision in more detail.

For US CPI on Wednesday, our US economists expect headline CPI growth to pick up to +0.30% (+0.24% in October), in line with the median forecast on Bloomberg, and see core printing at +0.27% (+0.28%) also in line with consensus. The headline YoY rate will therefore likely move up two-tenths to 2.8%, with core staying at 3.3%. The PPI report will follow on Thursday and our economics team forecast the headline to grow by +0.3% MoM (+0.2%). As ever the components that feed into core PCE will be the main thing to watch.

For the ECB, DB expect a 25bp cut to 3.00% in December. This will be the fourth cut since the start of the easing cycle, making it 100bp of cuts so far in this cycle. See Mark Wall’s preview here. The team expect the December ECB press conference to emphasize uncertainty and the Governing Council to reach a compromise on communications that creates more policy optionality. There is considerable uncertainty going forward, not least around the timing, extent and impact of US tariffs, and as such the Governing Council is likely to want to keep its policy options wide open in 2025.

It’s been a weekend full of interesting news with Syrian President Assad’s reign collapsing as rebel forces ousted him. With Russia and Iran historically backing the Assad government but being distracted by other conflicts on their own doorstep, the rebel forces have taken their opportunity. While many countries will be happy to see the current regime fall, the big question mark is what happens next. The rebels have been led by HTS, who spun out of al-Qaeda in 2016, so there will remain question marks about the succession. The situation probably isn’t market moving at the moment (Crude up 0.4% overnight) but has longer-term implications for a lot of the current geopolitical hotspots dominating the world at the moment.

Meanwhile Mr Trump spoke to NBC’s “Meet the Press” yesterday and said he had no plans to replace Powell as Fed Chair and said “tariffs are going to make our country rich. Tariffs are going to help us pay off $35 trillion in debt”. The trade comments didn’t have a lot of extra substance beyond that so hard to get too much from it at the moment.

Asian equity markets are soft this morning amid continued political upheaval in South Korea and a seemingly slow demand recovery in China. As I check my screens, the KOSPI (-2.54%) is rapidly losing steam and leading losses in the region after gaining ground initially as opposition lawmakers indicated that they would push for another impeachment vote on President Yoon after the first one failed. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (-0.57%), and the Shanghai Composite (-0.36%) are also losing ground. S&P 500 (-0.07%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.05%) futures are trading just below flat.

Coming back to China, consumer prices cooled to +0.2% y/y in November (v/s +0.4% expected), its lowest in 5 months and down from a +0.3% increase in October. At the same time, factory gate inflation shrank -2.5% y/y in November but higher than the Bloomberg forecast of a -2.8% decline and against a -2.9% contraction in the previous month. The reading marked over two years of consistent declines in PPI though. Elsewhere, Japan’s GDP grew at an annualised pace of +1.2% in Q3 (v/s +1.0% expected), thus keeping alive market expectations for an interest rate hike next week from the BOJ.

Looking back at last week now, risk assets put in another strong performance, with the S&P 500 up +0.96% (+0.25% Friday) to yet another new record. Indeed, it was a third consecutive weekly advance for the index, and it means that it’s now up +27.68% on a YTD basis, not far off the +29.6% gain in 2013 that marks the strongest annual performance of the 21st century so far. That strength was echoed across global equities, with the STOXX 600 also up for a third consecutive week with a +2.00% gain (+0.18% Friday), whilst Japan’s Nikkei was up +2.31% (-0.77% Friday).

The week ended with a mixed US jobs report for November on Friday, where the headline gain for nonfarm payrolls was broadly as expected at +227k (vs. 220k consensus). Moreover, there were positive revisions to the previous couple of months, so October was revised up from +12k to +36k. That said, there were also some more negative features in the report, with the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.246% (vs. 4.1% expected), so it was just shy of being rounded up to 4.3% again. Indeed, it’s worth noting that the recent July peak in the unemployment rate (that helped trigger the summer market turmoil) was 4.253%, so only 0.07bps above what we saw on Friday.

From a market perspective, investors welcomed the report as it still kept the door open to a December rate cut. For instance, futures dialled up the probability of a cut to 85% by the close on Friday, having been around 70% just before the jobs report came out. And in turn, that proved supportive for US Treasuries, and the 2yr Treasury yield fell -4.7bps last week (-4.0bps Friday) to 4.104%. Meanwhile, the 10yr yield fell by a smaller -1.6bps (-2.3bps Friday).

Over in Europe, there were significant developments in France given the political turmoil that led to a vote of no confidence in the government. However, whilst the Franco-German 10yr spread initially hit its widest since 2012 last Monday, it then continued to fall over the rest of the week. So overall, it tightened -3.8bps last week (-1.0bps Friday) to 77bps. Moreover, other countries in Europe saw a larger tightening, with the Italian 10yr spread over bunds down -12.6bps last week to 108.5bps, whilst the Spanish spread tightened -5.3bps to 65bps. In part, that was because yields on 10yr bunds themselves rose +2.0bps (+0.3bps Friday) to 2.11%.

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The EPoch Times,

Two senators introduced a proposed amendment to the U.S. Constitution that would impose term limits for members of the Supreme Court.

The Supreme Court unanimously adopted a code of conduct in November 2023 governing the justices’ behavior.

The new resolution, introduced on Dec. 5 by Sens. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) and Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.), would limit newly appointed justices to 18 years on the bench, and lead to a new opening roughly every two years. To become effective, a constitutional amendment has to be passed by a two-thirds majority of both houses of Congress and ratified by three-quarters of the states.

According to a summary provided by Welch, the amendment would not change the number of sitting justices, currently set at nine by law, and would establish a transition period to ensure vacancies occur at regular intervals.

“Taking action to restore public trust in our nation’s most powerful Court is as urgent as it is necessary. Setting term limits for Supreme Court Justices will cut down on political gamesmanship, and is a commonsense reform supported by a majority of Americans,” Welch said in a joint statement issued with Manchin on Dec. 7.

“I’m proud to lead this effort with Senator Manchin, which will restore Americans’ faith in our judicial system.”

During the transition period, 18-year terms will start every two years, without regard to when a sitting justice steps down. When a sitting justice retires, the incoming justice will complete what remains of the next upcoming 18-year term.

Manchin, a former Democrat whose term in the Senate ends when the new Congress convenes on Jan. 3, 2025, said the current lifetime appointment structure is broken and “fuels polarizing confirmation battles and political posturing that has eroded public confidence in the highest court in our land.”

“Our amendment maintains that there shall never be more than nine justices and would gradually create regular vacancies on the court, allowing the president to appoint a new justice every two years with the advice and consent of the United States Senate,” he said.

Other measures are pending in Congress that would limit the tenure of Supreme Court justices.

Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), who chairs a Senate subcommittee overseeing federal courts, introduced a bill that would limit justices’ tenure to 18 years. Reps. Don Beyer (D-Va.) and Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) filed a similar bill in the House.

Rep. Hank Johnson (D-Ga.) introduced legislation that would force out justices after 18 years of regular active service, at which point they would assume senior status, a kind of semi-retirement for federal judges, and continue to draw a federal paycheck for life. Superannuated justices are already allowed to serve on lower courts by a 1937 law that allows justices to sit “by designation” on those courts.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), ranking member on the Senate Judiciary Committee, said in the summer that he opposes Supreme Court reform proposals, including term limits for justices, that are backed by Democrat lawmakers and President Joe Biden.

“They want to pack the court. They want … to undercut the conservative court,” Graham said during a July 28 interview on CBS’s “Face The Nation.”

“They have no desire to make the court better. They’re just trying to make it more liberal.”

The Epoch Times reached out to the Supreme Court for comment but did not receive a reply by publication time.

Just a few weeks before a poorly-publicized Jan. 1 deadline, a judge has issued a nationwide injunction barring the enforcement of a controversial mandate that would compel tens of millions of small and large businesses to file beneficial ownership reports with an obscure federal agency. The ruling doesn’t kill the requirement altogether, but it does bar the Treasury Department from enforcing it until lawsuits challenging the requirement’s constitutionality are fully resolved. 

“There are now CTA cases pending in the Fourth, Fifth, Ninth, and Eleventh Circuits,” notes attorney and Forbes contributor Kelly Phillips Erb, posting as @taxgirl on X. “It’s looking more like it could end up at the Supreme Court.” There’s also the possibility that the next Trump administration — either unilaterally or via cooperation with Congress — could find a way to kill or at least narrow the requirement. 

The rule imposed by the Corporate Transparency Act (CTA) swept the vast majority of “legal entities created to do business in the United States” into a new bureaucratic net, directing them to dump information about themselves and their “beneficial owners” into a federal database managed by the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) — which most Main Street businesses and single-member LLC’s have probably never even heard of. Those who failed to comply faced severe penalties, ranging from civil fines of up to $591 a day to criminal consequences of up to $250,000 and a five-year prison term.    

Advertised by the Feds as necessary to crack down on criminals’ use of shell companies, it’s the kind of heavy-handed bureaucratic burden that incoming president Donald Trump and his sidekicks at his nascent “Department of Government Efficiency” — Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy — have promised to eradicate. Indeed, FinCEN itself estimated that compliance would cost $22.7 billion in the first year alone, and then $5.6 billion in subsequent years into perpetuity. 

The rule sought to put the ownership information of more than 32 million entities in a US Treasury database. It’s fair to say that a huge proportion of them had no idea that a deadline backed by harsh penalties was rapidly approaching — and still don’t. In August, FinCEN said fewer than 4 million had complied with the requirement. The CTA exempts 23 categories of entities from the reporting requirement — most of them are various types of financial institutions. 

Big news – FinCen BOI reporting has been delayed indefinitely..

A federal court out of Texas issued a sweeping order saying the government may not enforce a January 1 filing deadline.

You are still free to report, but this can seems to be kicked down the road for a while.

— Mitchell Baldridge (@baldridgecpa) December 5, 2024

Writing at at Forbes, attorney Matthew F. Erskine explains District Judge Amos Mazzant’s rationale for siding with the multiple plaintiffs in the case, which include the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), Texas Top Cop Shop and the Libertarian Party of Mississippi:  

Judge Mazzant’s opinion strongly rebuked the CTA for overstepping constitutional boundaries. He noted that corporate regulation has traditionally fallen within the states’ jurisdiction. By mandating federal oversight of corporate ownership, the CTA disrupts the balance of power foundational to the U.S. federalist system.

The Treasury Department quickly announced that it will appeal the ruling, with a spokeswoman claiming that the CTA “plays a vital role in protecting the U.S. financial system…We continue to believe—consistent with the conclusions of other federal courts—that the CTA is constitutional.” Not all courts feel that way: Earlier this year, an Alabama judge imposed an injunction that only applied to NFIB members, finding that the Constitution provides no basis for a law requiring the collection of ownership information. 

After the Texas judge issued his 80-page ruling on Tuesday, FinCEN posted an alert to its website informing business owners that “reporting companies are not currently required to file their beneficial ownership information with FinCEN and will not be subject to liability if they fail to do so while the preliminary injunction remains in effect.” In the meantime, entities are free to voluntarily submit the reports if they want to. A post pinned to the agency’s X account it “may take 20 minutes or less” — which is hardly encouraging. 

“This ruling is a huge victory for small businesses nationwide, and just in time” said Beth Milito, Executive Director of NFIB’s Small Business Legal Center. “Many Main Street small businesses…were a mere four weeks away from the deadline to file their information in accordance with the CTA. The BOI [Beneficial Ownership Information] reporting requirements are a harmful invasion of small business owners’ privacy and a misuse of their valuable time.”

There’s more to privacy concerns than just putting the names of beneficial owners in front of the Feds’ eyes: FinCEN has already demonstrated an inability to keep its reports secure from leaks. In 2020, Buzzfeed published a report drawing on more than 2,000 leaked “suspicious activity reports” that had been filed with the agency. 

Erskine is hopeful that the case — Texas Top Cop Shop v Garland —  could help bolster federalism: “Judge Mazzant reaffirmed that the Constitution’s constraints on federal power remain relevant even in addressing modern challenges. This case could set a precedent for courts to scrutinize federal initiatives that intrude into areas historically managed by states.”

Let’s hope so.

Boston City Councilor Tania Fernandes Anderson was arrested on Friday by the FBI on public corruption charges, according to Fox News.

She is facing five wire fraud charges and one theft charge related to federal program funds, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Massachusetts. 

Prosecutors allege that in late 2022, she hired a relative and arranged for them to receive inflated pay, most of which they were instructed to kick back to her.

The Fox News report said that federal authorities arrested Fernandes Anderson at her Dorchester home, prompting Boston Mayor Michelle Wu to call for her resignation. Wu said: “Like any member of the community, Councilor Fernandes Anderson has the right to a fair legal process.”

“But the serious nature of these charges undermines the public trust and will prevent her from effectively serving the city. I urge Councilor Fernandes Anderson to resign,” she added.

A filing of the charges read: “From in or about early to mid-2023, Fernandes Anderson was facing personal financial difficulty, which included missing monthly rent and car payments, an impending $5,000 civil penalty from the Ethics Commission, and incurring bank overdraft fees, which resulted in Fernandes Anderson maintaining low daily bank balances.”

“On or about June 9, 2023, at approximately 4:11 p.m., Staff Member A texted Fernandes Anderson, “Bathroom” to let Fernandes Anderson know that Staff Member A was waiting in the bathroom to hand the $7,000 cash to Fernandes Anderson,” it continues.

“Within seconds, Fernandes Anderson texted Staff Member A, “Ready” to confirm that Fernandes Anderson was ready to accept the $7,000 cash kickback from Staff Member A.”

“Shortly following these texts, Staff Member A handed Fernandes Anderson approximately $7,000 in cash at a bathroom in City Hall,” the filing reads.

Special Agent in Charge Jodi Cohen commented: “Her behavior, as alleged in today’s indictment, is a slap in the face to the hardworking taxpayers in the city of Boston who have every right to expect that the city’s funds are in good and honest hands.”

“This case illustrates how the FBI, and our partners, are working hard every day to battle public corruption and the corrosive damage it does to people’s faith in government,” she continued.

In 2022, Fernandes Anderson hired two immediate family members to her staff, violating city rules, and was fined $5,000 by the Ethics Commission after firing them. Last month, the state’s Campaign Finance Office flagged her campaign for exceeding contribution limits and delayed deposit filings, according to WCVB.

Authored by Travis Gillmore via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

State Attorney General Rob Bonta requested Dec. 4 that Californians report to his office any violations of state laws that limit state institutions, agencies, and local law enforcement’s ability to cooperate with federal immigration enforcement actions.

Senate Bill 54—passed in 2017 and known as the California Values Act—blocks state and local agencies from using resources to assist immigration enforcement by arresting, detaining, detecting, interrogating, or investigating individuals suspected of entering the country illegally.

The appeal came in an announcement that courts, health care facilities, libraries, and other public institutions in California were advised to craft policies meant to make it more difficult for federal law enforcement authorities to deport illegal immigrants.

Such advisement is in response to comments made by President-elect Donald Trump during his campaign and after the election that deportations will be a prime component of his national security policies, according to the attorney general, and updates guidance first issued in 2018 during Trump’s first term.

“We will not allow safe spaces like libraries, hospitals, and courthouses to be co-opted and commandeered for [Trump’s] inhumane immigration agenda,” Bonta said in a statement. “My office will continue to use the full force of the law and every tool at our disposal to protect the rights of California’s immigrants, and we need staff at these critical locations to do the same.”

He said fear of immigration enforcement could harm the 1.8 million—as calculated by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center—illegal immigrants residing in California.

“We cannot let the Trump deportation machine create a culture of fear and mistrust that prevents immigrants from accessing vital public services,” Bonta said.

State courts, public schools, and publicly funded health care facilities are required by law to follow the order and craft policies in line with the attorney general’s guidelines. All other institutions are encouraged to comply.

According to the guidance, cooperation between federal immigration officers and state institutions is problematic because it “diverts state resources, blurs lines of accountability, and threatens trust between immigrant communities and state and local agencies that provide critical public services.”

Courts are advised to create policies that limit support for federal immigration actions by prohibiting Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents from entering certain areas of facilities unless they present court warrants.

Customs agency warrants can be ignored, according to the attorney general’s guidance, because they do not carry the authority of a court warrant, and state law prohibits local agencies from consenting to immigration officers’ search requests.

The use of pseudonyms is also suggested to shield victims, witnesses, and other individuals from potential enforcement action.

Additionally, courts are prompted to minimize in-person appearances and to consider not penalizing individuals who fail to appear due to fear of immigration authorities.

All institutions are advised to prohibit the disclosure of information that could reveal an individual’s illegal immigrant status.

Policies should defer requests from federal authorities to legal counsel or administrators, and all instances should be documented, according to the guidelines.

Staff should receive training about how to respond to immigration enforcement requests and should direct individuals who access services to privacy rights information, according to the attorney general’s orders.

Trump’s choice for border czar, Tom Homan, recently warned state officials against interfering with the federal government.

“I’m sending a message to those people who said they’re going to get in our way … don’t cross that line,” Homan said during a press conference at the border with Texas Gov. Greg Abbott on Nov. 26. “It is a felony to knowingly harbor an illegal alien from an immigration authority. Don’t test us.”

He said plans are underway to deport millions of illegal immigrants.

“Let me be clear. There is going to be a mass deportation because we just finished a mass illegal immigration crisis,” Homan said. “If you let them stay, you’ll never fix the border. This is a nation of laws, and we’re going to enforce those laws.”

California Gov. Gavin Newsom said during a Dec. 5 press conference at the border in San Diego County that the state does not interfere with the federal government using its own resources to enforce federal laws and cooperates “in many cases.”

He expressed concern about possible widespread deportations because about half of farmworkers in California entered the country illegally, according to the governor.

“The impacts of mass deportation on the cost of food in this state and this nation are off the charts,” Newsom said. “This is serious business.”

The president-elect’s transition team said his wide margin of victory is evidence the American people want him to prioritize his agenda of securing the border and bolstering public safety.

“President Trump will marshal every federal and state power necessary to institute the largest deportation operation of illegal criminals, drug dealers, and human traffickers in American history while simultaneously lowering costs for families,” Karoline Leavitt, Trump-Vance transition spokesperson, told The Epoch Times by email on Nov. 27.

“The American people reelected President Trump by a resounding margin giving him a mandate to implement the promises he made on the campaign trail, like deporting migrant criminals and restoring our economic greatness. He will deliver.”