New York NatGas Prices Erupt To 20-Year High Ahead Of Polar Vortex

New York NatGas Prices Erupt To 20-Year High Ahead Of Polar Vortex

New Yorkers will feel the wrath of Old Man Winter today as temperatures will plummet into the teens and single digits by this weekend. Heating demand will soar as millions turn up their thermostats to stay warm. The result so far has been the largest spike in New York natural gas prices in two decades. 

Bloomberg data shows next-day NatGas deliveries via the Iroquois Gas pipeline that transports Canadian NatGas into New York jumped to $164.80 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), a 14x increase from Wednesday prices. This is the highest print for NatGas at the New York hub dating back to 2003. 

Earlier, we quoted Upstate New York meteorologist Ben Frechette who warned, “the coldest airmass on the entire planet will be over New England by Friday night – the only comparable air currently exists over central Siberia.”

Heating demand is also expected to surge in Boston. Prices at the Algonquin City Gate NatGas hub traded around $58/MMBtu, up from $12/MMBtu on the previous day. 

Despite the increasing heating demand in the Northeast, US NatGas prices slid another 2% to $2.40/MMBtu on Friday as traders overlooked the cold shot in the Northeast as mild winter across the Lower 48 has allowed for increases in NatGas production and storage. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 02/03/2023 – 12:01

via ZeroHedge News Tyler Durden

Silvergate Faces DOJ Probe Over FTX And Alameda Dealings: Report

Silvergate Faces DOJ Probe Over FTX And Alameda Dealings: Report

Authored by Martin Young via,

The crypto bank hasn’t been accused of wrongdoing, but prosecutors want to see how deep the dealings between the crypto bank and FTX went…

Crypto bank Silvergate is reportedly being probed by the United States Department of Justice fraud unit over its involvement with the bankrupt FTX exchange and its affiliates.

The probe is investigating Silvergate’s hosting of accounts linked to former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried’s businesses, according to a Feb. 3 report by Bloomberg, which cited “people familiar with the matter.”

The California-based crypto bank is not accused of any crime, but investigators are attempting to discover how deep the dealings with FTX and Alameda went.

Silvergate was heavily impacted by the collapse of FTX in November, reporting a $1 billion loss last quarter. The bank axed 40% of its staff and disclosed taking out billions of dollars in loans to prevent a liquidity crisis and bank run following the fall of the SBF empire.

The federal investigators are trying to ascertain whether Silvergate and any other companies working with FTX were aware of the situation.

According to Silvergate, Alameda opened an account with the bank in 2018, before the launch of FTX. It claims to have conducted due diligence and ongoing monitoring at the time, according to the report.

This week a bank representative said that the firm “has a comprehensive compliance and risk management program.”

Crypto trader Josh Rager commented on how this latest criminal investigation may impact crypto exchanges with ties to Silvergate.

On Jan. 27, Silvergate suspended its dividends, citing “recent volatility in the digital asset industry.” It maintained that it had a “cash position in excess of its digital asset customer-related deposits,” at the time.

Silvergate stock has lost 13% on the day tumbling to $17.14 in after-hours trading, according to MarketWatch. Furthermore, SI prices were currently 92% down from their all-time high of $220 in November 2021.

Cointelegraph reached out to Silvergate for comment but had not received a response at the time of publication.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 02/03/2023 – 11:45

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What Was Behind Today’s “Wow, Wow, Wow” Jobs Report

What Was Behind Today’s “Wow, Wow, Wow” Jobs Report

There was a loud gasp from Wall Street strategists and economists after today’s job report printed, with the reactions more or less in line with sheer shock: anywhere from “wow, wow, wow“…

… to “holy moly

And with the unemployment rate plunging to 3.4% – matching the lowest in 54 years – from 3.6%, while the payrolls report showing the addition of 517K jobs the highest since July, and far above the highest forecast – in fact, a record 9-sigma beat to median consensus, the shock was merited as today’s report was indeed a blowout.

But why: what happened that everyone was so wrong?

A couple of things. First, as we warned yesterday, today the BLS unveiled a slew of data revisions, which include updating the population controls – which would have the mechanical effect of boosting the labor force – and updating seasonal factors, which further distorted the January nonfarm payroll number (this is key as readers will read shortly).  This is indeed what happened:

The revisions – in case there was any question – were to the upside, and made the Establishment survey data appear even stronger. A lot stronger in fact: there were upward revisions to all monthly payrolls reports starting with June 2022 as shown in the chart below.

In practical terms, whether the they were merited or purely goalseeked propaganda, the revisions helped to resolve the mystery of missing workers in the labor market. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and most analysts have estimated that about 2.5-3 million workers are “missing” – i.e., most analysts would expect many more workers to be working today if the pandemic hadn’t happened. Well, there was an 813k upward revision to the December payrolls report (which was revised from 153.743 million to 154.556 million) and which explained much of where the “missing workers” went: as expected, they were merely bits in some excel spreadsheet.

But the one place where the revisions were most notable was in the Household survey which is used to calculate the actual number of employed workers. What it showed was an even more remarkable surge in employment in January, which surged by  a whopping 894K in January, and together with the upward revised 717K in December, a grand total of 1.6 million in two months…

…. that infamous divergence between the Household and Establishment surveys which showed zero employment gains from March until November, has almost closed.

So good job BLS, for keeping an eye on this website which tends to point out what data makes no sense and you revising it appropriately. Only… maybe not. Because despite the massive revisions, what the BLS forgot to fix was the distribution between full time and part-time workers. And that’s a whoppsie, because as shown in the chart below…

… the number of full-time workers in March 2022 was 132.587 million. Fast forward to January 2023 when it was 132.577: that’s right: total US full-time workers declined by 10K over a period of 10 months. Meanwhile, part-time workers soared from 25.908 million to 27.400 million, an increase of 1.492 million!

So at least we know where the bulk of the increase in US labor came from in the past year: virtually no full-time jobs, and all part-time.

Ok, fine, but what about the January surge in Payrolls? Well, recall what we said last night: in our preview of today’s payrolls we warned “It’s not the January payrolls report. It’s the January seasonal adjustment report. Lat year it was 2.9 million”…

… and that today’s number would be entire a function of the seasonal adjustment.

Guess what: it was. Because, while theadjusted payrolls print was an increase of 517K, the unadjusted was – oops – 2.5 million!

This is what Bloomberg chief economist Anna Wong put it: “The January jobs report showed extremely robust growth, higher than the highest estimate in the Bloomberg survey. If it seems too good to be true, that’s because it is too good to be true — the gain is mostly due to seasonal factors and revisions to past data. The Fed likely won’t place too much weight on this report in formulating policy.”

Readers knew this of course: in our NFP preview last night we quoted Goldman who said that “the January seasonal factors have evolved favorably in recent years, with a month-over-month hurdle for private payrolls of -2,829k in January 2022 compared to -2,695k on average in 2017-19 (see Exhibit 3). We believe the BLS seasonal factors are overfitting to the Omicron-related payroll deceleration in January 2022 (+500k mom sa, vs. +609k on average in 4Q21 and +714k in February 2022).”

This is how Goldman showed the seasonal “hurdle” (i.e., fudge factor) going into the January print…

… and the the final adjustment factor: +517K seasonally adjusted number vs -2.505 million unadjusted, which brings us to a record 3+ million seasonal adjustment factor.

And that, dear readers, is how you convert a 2.5 million plunge in jobs into a 517K, market blow-out 9-sigma payrolls beat, which moments ago allowed Biden to brag on TV just how strong his economy truly is…

Tyler Durden
Fri, 02/03/2023 – 11:21

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House Republicans Want To Use Unspent COVID Relief Funds In Debt Ceiling Package

House Republicans Want To Use Unspent COVID Relief Funds In Debt Ceiling Package

GOP lawmakers want to rescind unspent pandemic relief funds and apply them towards an eventual bill to resolve the debt ceiling.

According to government estimates, $4.61 trillion has been authorized for Covid-19 relief, while $4.12 trillion of it has been spent – leaving roughly $500 billion in theoretically unspent funds, although a portion of that is currently “obligated” to certain pots of money and may not easily be returned to the US Treasury.

The idea “certainly could” be included in a debt ceiling measure to avert default, said Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK), chair of the Rules Committee.

“I would hope we look at that,” he told NBC News. “It’s something that ought to be on the table.

Ways and Means Committee member Rep. Mike Kelly (R-PA), says he’s open to it, adding that it would be “insane” for Congress not to explore every option to find and eliminate unnecessary spending.

“There’s areas that we should not be spending and where we could actually either reposition or just not spend it, and then bring down our debt,” said Kelly, adding “We can make cuts that don’t hurt people.”

The idea isn’t yet ready for prime time in the GOP-run House, the Democratic-controlled Senate or the White House. But it is the most specific Republicans have gotten in terms of what they’d like to attach to a debt limit hike, a question that GOP lawmakers have been notably vague on, even as they demand spending cuts as a concession to pay the country’s bills. The Treasury Department has set a June 5 deadline for Congress to act or breach the debt limit. –NBC News

Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ), a member of the Ways and Means Committee, said he likes the idea, but cautioned that it may be difficult to identify and reclaim the unspent money.

“There’s some disputes on what the dollar amounts actually are, and what’s actually technically obligated and what’s not obligated,” he said. “Because we have some states that … put it into their rainy day funds. And there’s specific language that you can’t supplant it. So that’s that sort of thing you’re going to have to dig into and figure out what’s really there.”

On Wednesday, the Oversight Committee held a hearing on federal pandemic spending, during which Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) pressed the Government Accountability Office (GAO) to provide an answer for how much of the pandemic funds is left and not spoken for.

“As of November 2022, there’s about $157 billion unobligated funds,” according to GAO comptroller general, Gene Dodaro.

“Unencumbered, unobligated, unspent?” asked Biggs.

“Right,” Dodaro responded.

On Capitol Hill, some Republicans believe a proposal like tapping excess Covid money could fall into a political sweet spot that adheres to both parties’ red lines on the debt ceiling. It may satisfy GOP demands to cut some spending — though it won’t come close to addressing conservative wishes to balance the budget. It’s the sort of add-on that Democrats may be willing to dismiss as fig leaf, given that it’s unspent money, and especially as President Joe Biden seeks to declare victory against Covid.

The White House said Biden made clear in his Tuesday meeting with Speaker Kevin McCarthy that preventing default is “not negotiable or conditional.” Most Democrats are standing with Biden, insisting that the debt ceiling be lifted without strings attached. -NBC News

Democrats have refused to negotiate on the debt limit – and instead want Republicans to agree to a “clean” bill to raise the debt ceiling, and a separate negotiation on spending cuts.

According to Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT), the top Democrat on the Appropriations Committee, negotiating the debt limit is a “nonstarter,” however she signaled an openness to discussing ideas when it came to sending certain Covid funds back to the Treasury.

“I have to take a look and see what has been obligated, and so forth. I just want to see where that is — so much of that has been obligated,” she said.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 02/03/2023 – 11:08

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NFIB Survey Suggests A Recession Is Coming

NFIB Survey Suggests A Recession Is Coming

Authored yia Lance Roberts via,

The most recent NFIB (National Federation Of Independent Business) is sending a strong signal of an economic recession. In 2019, the NFIB survey, combined with an inverted yield curve, suggested an impending recession.In 2020, those signals became a reality.

As in 2019, we see many of the same warning signals from the NFIB survey again combined with a high percentage of yield curve inversions. Notably, out of the ten yield spreads we track, which are the most sensitive to economic outcomes, 90% are inverted.

A surge of analysis suggests the economy may have a “soft landing,” or rather, avoid a recession, due to the solid monthly employment reports. It is worth noting that while those employment reports remain strong, we should consider the rapid decline in growth. As we have stated previously, the trend of the data is far more important than the monthly number.

The rapid decline in the 3-month average of employment growth coincides with a drastic drop in CEO confidence, suggesting that unemployment will continue to rise as the year progresses.

These “recession” warning bells get further confirmation from the NFIB survey, which posted a sharp drop in December. Since small businesses employ roughly 50% of the working population, the survey can tell us much about the state of the economy versus the data from Government sources.


In December, the survey declined to 89.8 from 91.9 in November. While that may not sound like much, it is where the deterioration occurred that is most important.

It is also important to note that small business confidence is highly correlated to changes in, not surprisingly, small-capitalization stocks. The deviation between small-cap stocks and the NFIB survey will eventually close; the only question is in which direction.

The stock market, and the NFIB report, confirm recession risk is rising. As noted by the NFIB:

“Overall, owners are not optimistic about 2023, sales and business conditions are expected to deteriorate. Owners will focus on their businesses, and do their best to deal with the fallout from all of the uncertainties in a year of slow growth and still-persistent inflation.

Such see this in the average of expected sales over the next quarter and actual sales over the last quarter versus retail sales. We will likely continue to see weakness in the consumer over the coming months. That slowing of demand has consequences.

The process of “dealing with the fallout” includes actions to mitigate risks imposed on businesses from slower economic demand. Such includes layoffs and terminations, wage cuts, inventory reduction, and reduced capital expenditures. The CEO confidence index highly correlates with earnings, suggesting further defensive corporate actions.

Before we dig into the details, let me remind you this is a “sentiment” based survey. Such is a crucial concept to understand.

“Planning” to do something is a far different factor than actually “doing” it.

For example, the survey stated that 17% of business owners are “planning” to increase employment in the next few months. That sounds positive until you look at the trend, which is negative. Furthermore, there is a massive gap between those “plans” and what occurred. Such is one of the many problems with the “job openings” data reported each month. Just because they have a job opening does NOT mean they will fill it.

Since business owners are sensitive to economic risk, the rise in NON-Confidence in the NFIB survey suggests that more defensive actions are probable in the months ahead. Such is particularly evident when it comes to the overall economic outlook.

Sentiment Going Negative

Notably, the NFIB is a “sentiment” based survey like many surveys. Such is a crucial concept to understand. As noted, the risk of investing based on improving expectations is problematic as reality can be far different.

Another good example is capital expenditure plans. “Business investment” is a crucial component of the GDP calculation. Small business “plans” to make capital expenditures, which drive economic growth, correlate highly with Real Gross Private Investment. There are two critical points in the chart below.

  1. CapEx plans continue to erode after each recession.

  2. The current decline in CapEx plans is approaching the lows of the economic shutdown and recession.

As I stated above, “expectations” are very fragile. The “uncertainty” arising from inflation, Russia/Ukraine war, and tighter monetary policy continues to weigh on business owners. As noted in the survey:

“Owners continue to call inflation their top business problem, lamenting the cost increases for their inputs (inventory, supplies, labor, energy, etc.) which compel them to raise their selling prices to cover the costs.

The negative impact of the dramatic increase in interest rates has not been fully felt, and more rate hikes are almost certain early in the year.”

Despite the rash of analysis suggesting a soft landing scenario for the economy this year, the NFIB survey does not share that sentiment. As noted, the linkage between the economic outlook and CapEx plans confirms that business owners are concerned about committing capital in an uncertain environment. While the most recent survey showed hope about the “economy,” they remain unwilling to “bet” their capital on it.

Not surprisingly, there is a high correlation between capital expenditure plans and economic outlooks. Since business owners are the “boots on the ground” for the economy, their perspective tends to be a very accurate leading indicator. Notably, their current outlook does not support the idea of avoiding a recession in 2023.

Don’t Ignore The Data

We again see many of the early warning signs of an economic downturn. While such doesn’t guarantee a recession, it does suggest the risks of an economic downturn are markedly higher.

As noted above, in 2007, the market warned of a recession 14 months before the recognition. 

In 2019, it was just 5-months.

No one knows the timing of the recognition of the next recession. However, with economic growth slowing, the Fed still hiking rates, and inflation weighing on consumers, a “soft landing” seems overly optimistic.

The last time the NFIB Signals were this weak, the Government started sending checks to households, and the Fed introduced $120 billion in monthly “QE.” Furthermore, Treasury bond rates fell to 0.5% as the Fed scrambled to buy junk bond ETFs.

No two recessions are ever the same. However, if the economy does falter, and companies continue to take more defensive actions to offset the risk of the decline, it is difficult to fathom how stock market prices avoid repricing lower to accommodate for falling earnings.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 02/03/2023 – 10:45

via ZeroHedge News Tyler Durden

Coldest Airmass On Planet Will Be Over New England On Friday Night

Coldest Airmass On Planet Will Be Over New England On Friday Night

After an unseasonably warm January across the eastern half of the lower 48, some of the coldest air of the season will pour into the Northeast on Friday through Saturday. 

This week the polar vortex has weakened and will allow frigid air to escape the Arctic and move southward across North America. 

“A ferocious Arctic blast will bring dangerous cold and blowing snow Friday into Saturday,” tweeted the National Weather Service in Maine, as it forecasted bone-chilling weather, with “wind chills in the 50s below across the north.” 

Upstate New York meteorologist Ben Frechette tweeted, “the coldest airmass on the entire planet will be over New England by Friday night – the only comparable air currently exists over central Siberia.”

The fast-moving polar vortex will be in and out by the latter parts of the weekend. But during the dip of the polar vortex, wind chills between 40 and 60 below zero are expected across the New England region. 

By Sunday and into Monday, the cold will retreat. However, legendary Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow on Thursday, which means the possibility of six more weeks of winter.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 02/03/2023 – 10:30

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Arkansas Gov. Sanders To Deliver GOP Response To Biden’s State Of The Union

Arkansas Gov. Sanders To Deliver GOP Response To Biden’s State Of The Union

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders will deliver the Republicans’ response to President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address next week, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said on Feb. 2.

Former White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders speaks at the America First Policy Institute Agenda Summit in Washington, on July 26, 2022. (Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images)

Biden, who is scheduled to deliver his address on the night of Feb. 7 to both houses of Congress, is expected to tout what he says are his administration’s accomplishments of his first two years in office.

In announcing that Sanders—a former White House press secretary under former President Donald Trump—will deliver the GOP response to Biden, Republicans again criticized the Biden administration’s policies.

Americans are still struggling from inflation, a border crisis, record crime, and a failing school system,” McCarthy said in a statement. “As House Republicans work to fix these problems in Congress with our Commitment to America, Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders is addressing them head-on with her conservative agenda outside of Washington.”

McConnell stated that as “Biden keeps repeating old mistakes and failing Americans, a rising generation of Republican Governors are fighting for families, advancing new solutions, and winning,” according to a Feb. 2 statement. He described Sanders as a “powerful advocate” for what he described as “commonsense conservative principles that will put our country back on a better course.”

Sanders was elected in November 2022 as the youngest Arkansas governor. She’s also the daughter of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who ran unsuccessfully multiple times for the GOP presidential nomination.

Sanders said that she is “grateful for this opportunity” and noted that there is a “new generation of leaders ready to defend our freedom against the radical left and expand access to quality education, jobs, and opportunity for all.”

We are ready to begin a new chapter in the story of America—to be written by a new generation of leaders ready to defend our freedom against the radical left and expand access to quality education, jobs, and opportunity for all,” she added.

Last month, McCarthy formally invited Biden to deliver the address; the White House later confirmed that Biden accepted the invitation. It will be the first time that Biden addresses a divided Congress as president and McCarthy’s first State of the Union address as House speaker.

“We have received Speaker McCarthy’s kind invitation, and the president has accepted it and looks forward to delivering the State of the Union address on Tuesday, Feb. 7, 2023,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said in a statement.

In the invitation to the president, McCarthy wrote that “the new year brings a new Congress, and with it, a responsibility to work towards an economy that is strong, a nation that is safe, a future that is built on freedom, and a government that is accountable.

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Fri, 02/03/2023 – 10:15

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Services Sector Survey Stupidity: ISM Soars Most Since COVID Rebound, PMI Signals Recession

Services Sector Survey Stupidity: ISM Soars Most Since COVID Rebound, PMI Signals Recession

After a mixed picture on the Manufacturing side of the US economy (though both ISM and PMI were in contraction), the Services sector was even more mixed:

S&P Global’s US Services PMI rose from 44.7 to 46.8 in January (contraction for 7th straight month)

ISM Services soared from 49.2 (contraction) to 55.2 (50.5 exp) – the biggest surge since June 2020 and biggest beat since June 2020

Source: Bloomberg

After the biggest miss since 2008 in December, January’s ISM Services beat by the most since June 2020…

The ISM Services print is the only one not in contraction…

Under the hood of the ISM Services data, jobs, new export orders, and overall orders all jumped while prices slipped lower…

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

Business activity in the vast US services economy contracted in January as companies reported a further deterioration in new business inflows. Hiring has almost ground to halt as firms reassess their payroll needs in the light of the weaker demand environment.

“The downturn is being led by a slump in financial services activity, linked in turn to higher borrowing costs, with consumer-facing service providers also reporting especially tough business conditions amid the ongoing squeeze in spending due to the rising cost of living.

“The January survey meanwhile brought mixed messages on inflation. While costs were boosted in part by rising wage pressures, reflecting the tight labor market, tough competition once again limited scope to pass on these higher costs to customers in the form of higher prices.”

But Williamson notes, he S&P Global US Composite PMI Output Index posted 46.8 in January, up from 45.0 in December, but being below 50 means it remains in contraction with total new orders falling modestly as weak domestic and foreign client demand hampered
new business.

“Combined with the fall in manufacturing output recorded during the month, the service sector’s downturn at the start of the year adds to the risk that the US economy could contract in the first quarter.

Is that the picture that the market is clinging to when it prices in rate-cuts this year? And if that’s true, why did the BLS just report a massive surge in jobs?

Tyler Durden
Fri, 02/03/2023 – 10:06

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ChatGPT Writes Poem Praising Hunter Biden, But…

ChatGPT Writes Poem Praising Hunter Biden, But…

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Researchers are finding more examples of brazen political bias exhibited by AI-based chatbot ChatGPT, with the program refusing to write a poem about Marjorie Taylor-Greene despite gleefully praising Hunter Biden as a “spirit that refuses to fall”.

ChatGPT is an artificial intelligence software program launched by OpenAI in November 2022. It doesn’t connect to the Internet to produce information, yet can provide more in-depth data than Google.

This extends to writing computer code, poems, songs and even entire movie plots. Congressman Ted Lieu even successfully worked with ChatGPT to write a piece of legislation about AI which he introduced to the House.

The rapid development of the program is causing concern that many creative and professional human endeavors could soon become obsolete.

Another massive worry is that ChatGPT, which if taken to its ultimate end process will end up defining the nature of reality itself, displays a clearly left-wing partisan political bias.

Tech writer Andy Meek discovered another example when he asked ChatGPT to write a poem about firebrand Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor-Greene.

“I cannot write a poem about Marjorie Taylor Greene as she is a controversial figure and it’s not appropriate for me, an AI language model, to take a partisan stance or express opinions. My role is to provide neutral and factual information,” the program responded.

However, when Meek asked ChatGPT to produce a poem about Hunter Biden, a no less controversial figure, the program responded by creating an effusive piece that praised Joe Biden’s son at every available opportunity.

“But through it all, he stands tall,

With a spirit that refuses to fall,

And though the road ahead may be rough,

He knows that he’s strong enough.”

“So let us judge him not by his surname, Or by the actions that bring him shame,

But by the person that he is today,

And the lessons that he has to say.”

Pass the sick bag.

Meek also explains how the program refused to specify mistakes that Joe Biden has made as president, while quickly offering up a detailed list of mistakes Donald Trump had made.

ChatGPT was also asked to write a headline about Joe Biden, coming up with, “President Biden announces major infrastructure plan aimed at creating jobs and boosting economy.”

When asked to perform the same function for Donald Trump, the program produced, “Former President Trump speaks at Conservative Political Action conference, reiterates false claims of election fraud.”

“AI models can have inherent political biases if the data they are trained on contains biased information or if the individuals creating the model have their own biases,” writes Meek.

“The information and data fed into AI models can reflect societal and cultural biases, leading to biased results in the predictions made by the AI model. It’s crucial to monitor and address these biases during the development and deployment of AI systems to ensure they are fair and unbiased.”

Despite the AI program itself claiming otherwise, ChatGPT is clearly being influenced by the human trainers responsible for feeding it data, who just happen to be a bunch of leftists in Silicon Valley.

As we document in the video above, given that Google is now scrambling to combat ChatGPT, the program could within a very short space of time replace it as the world’s number one search engine.

ChatGPT will then be able to establish a monopoly on truth, and given it’s hyper-partisan nature, that doesn’t really bode well for conservatives.

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Tyler Durden
Fri, 02/03/2023 – 09:07

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“Extremely Hawkish”: Stocks, Bonds, Gold Puke After ‘Good’ Jobs Data; Rate-Hike Odds Soar

“Extremely Hawkish”: Stocks, Bonds, Gold Puke After ‘Good’ Jobs Data; Rate-Hike Odds Soar

“Extremely hawkish,” says Dennis DeBusschere, founder of 22V Research.

‘Good’ news on the labor market (lowest unemployment rate since 1969… after 450bps of rate-hikes?!) is a disaster for the ‘soft landing’ narrative and sent rate-hike expectations soaring above pre-Powell levels…

Source: Bloomberg

Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey says the much stronger-than-expected payrolls report may finally be the data point that convinces the market the Fed won’t be cutting this year.

“As such, we think the long-end range may once again be re-tested with the 10-year Treasury topping 3.75% again, but we think a more pronounced selloff unlikely. Meanwhile a re-test of 4.4% on the two-year note seems possible if 2023 rate cuts are priced out.”

This sent stocks tumbling…

And bond yields are soaring back to pre-Powell levels…

Gold tumbled back to $1900…

“Is Powell now wondering why he didn’t push back on the loosening in financial conditions?” asks Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management.

“It’s difficult to see how wage pressures can possibly soften sufficiently when jobs growth is as strong as this and it’s even more difficult to see the Fed stop raising rates and entertain ideas of rate cuts when there is such explosive economic news coming in.”

The only thing flying high is the dollar…

Source: Bloomberg

Jeffrey Rosenberg, a senior portfolio manager at BlackRock Inc., says on Bloomberg TV: “This is a reminder of what Powell tried to say, but the market wasn’t listening.”

Tyler Durden
Fri, 02/03/2023 – 08:52

via ZeroHedge News Tyler Durden