UK Tells Ukraine To Focus On Targeting Crimea

UK Tells Ukraine To Focus On Targeting Crimea

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

British military officials advised that Ukraine should focus on defense in its ground fight against Russia in the east while focusing on targeted strikes against Crimea and Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, The Sunday Times reported.

The advice was given when British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps and UK Army Chief Antony Radakin visited Ukraine last week. The British officials said rather than attacking, Ukrainian forces should hold the line and pull back to more favorable ground if necessary.

UK Defense Secretary Grant Shapps. Image: UK Ministry of Defence

“This will allow the Ukrainians to focus their efforts on the Black Sea and Crimea, where their forces, with the help of Western long-range missiles, have landed significant blows over the past six months,” the report said.

A recording of a conversation between German military officers that was recently published by Russian media revealed that the UK has soldiers “on the ground” in Ukraine helping Ukrainian forces use Storm Shadow missiles, which have a range of 155 miles, making them capable of hitting targets throughout Crimea.

Attacks on Crimea have always been considered a red line for Russian President Vladimir Putin. But the risk of escalation hasn’t stopped Ukraine’s Western backers from assisting with such strikes, as Storm Shadows have been reported to be used in multiple Ukrainian attacks on Crimea.

The UK has also helped Ukraine strike Russian ships in the Black Sea. Another recent report from the Times credited Radakin with helping “the Ukrainians with the strategy to destroy Russian ships and open up the Black Sea.”

Ukrainian attacks on Crimea and territory inside the Russian mainland have increased since it’s become clear Ukraine has no chance of winning on the battlefield.

Poland’s foreign minister earlier this month: NATO troops are already in Ukraine.

Since Russia captured the strategic Donetsk city of Avdiivka last month, Russian forces have been making steady gains in the east, and Ukraine is suffering from serious manpower and weapons shortages.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/19/2024 – 03:30

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These Will Be The Jobs Most Impacted By AI

These Will Be The Jobs Most Impacted By AI

Large language models (LLMs) and other generative AI tools haven’t been around for very long, but they’re expected to have far-reaching impacts on the way people do their jobs. With this in mind, researchers have already begun studying the potential impacts of this transformative technology.

In this graphic, Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu visualized the results of a World Economic Forum report, which estimated how different job departments will be exposed to AI disruption.

Data and Methodology

To identify the job departments most impacted by AI, researchers assessed over 19,000 occupational tasks (e.g. reading documents) to determine if they relied on language. If a task was deemed language-based, it was then determined how much human involvement was needed to complete that task.

With this analysis, researchers were then able to estimate how AI would impact different occupational groups.

In our graphic, large impact refers to tasks that will be fully automated or significantly altered by AI technologies. Small impact refers to tasks that have a lesser potential for disruption.

Where AI will make the biggest impact

Jobs in information technology (IT) and finance have the highest share of tasks expected to be largely impacted by AI.

Within IT, tasks that are expected to be automated include software quality assurance and customer support. On the finance side, researchers believe that AI could be significantly useful for bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing.

Still interested in AI? Check out this graphic which ranked the most commonly used AI tools in 2023.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/19/2024 – 02:45

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Anti-Semitism As The Harbinger Of Global Chaos

Anti-Semitism As The Harbinger Of Global Chaos

Authored by Stephen Soukup via American Greatness,

On the off chance you hadn’t noticed, the world appears to be at an especially precarious moment presently. Obviously, war continues to rage in Ukraine and Gaza, with no end in sight to either conflict. Great Britain and Japan are currently in recession. Canada’s economy is an absolute disaster, with almost no hope of near-term recovery. Much of continental Europe and China are struggling economically, if not officially contracting. Some experts believe that the global economy more generally is sliding, slowly but surely, into recession. The only economic bright spot in the world is the United States, and even here we have our problems with consumer spending and sentiment, massive credit concerns, and inarguably sticky inflation.

Meanwhile, China is investing in and winning friends, and influencing people in the Global South. U.S.-backed Kurdish leaders are warning that ISIS is resurgent in Syria and Iraq. The Marine general in charge of U.S. Africa Command is warning of Russia’s increasing influence on that continent. Sudan remains mired in civil war. Nigeria is plagued by Islamist terrorism and mass kidnappings. Mexico is in the midst of a full-blown war with the drug cartels, who continue to grow bolder and more militarily sophisticated.

Everywhere one looks, chaos reigns—or, at the very least, bubbles just below the surface.

Perhaps most telling among the signs of disarray is the unnerving rise of antisemitism in the United States, Europe, and throughout the world. Antisemitism, in general, has been intensifying, slowly but surely, over the last decade or so. Over the last few months, however, it has emerged fully into the open, undaunted and unembarrassed. What was once considered shameful and disconcerting is now warmly welcomed as a “rational” response to American foreign policy, Israeli war practices, “colonialism,” and “white privilege.”

All of this is troubling, to put it mildly, both in and of itself and as a harbinger of greater and more deadly global unrest.

Hatred of and anger toward Jews is not the same as other forms of bigotry.  

In many ways, the history of Western anti-Jewish hatred mirrors the history of Western political chaos and collapse.  Or, to put it another way, historically, Jews are not only the perennial scapegoats during periods of social upheaval and displacement, but resurgent anti-Semitism serves as the proverbial canary in the coal mine for the rise of revolutionary movements.

In his classic, The Pursuit of the Millennium, the British historian Norman Cohn argues that the Jewish diaspora generally fit comfortably, if tentatively into European society for most of the first thousand years or so A.D., and only became a hated and perpetually persecuted minority with the rise of utopian Millenarianism that accompanied and then outlived the Crusades.  Beginning then and continuing for the next nearly a thousand years, Europeans came to associate Jews with the antichrist and thus to associate hatred and persecution of Jews with preparing the battlespace for the Second Coming.  Many historians, including Hannah Arendt, believed that the anti-Semitism that was such an integral part of the West’s 20th-century collapse into totalitarianism was relatively new and, in any case, distinct from medieval anti-Semitism.  Cohn’s history suggests otherwise, connecting the religious eschatology of medieval Europe to the quasi-religious eschatology of post-Enlightenment Europe, thereby connecting the persistence of Western anti-Semitism as well.

Cohn tells us that millenarian moments and the millenarian movements that capitalize on those moments all share a common group of characteristics. They all appear under certain social and economic conditions. They all appeal to a certain segment of the population at large, who then present themselves as economic, spiritual, and political leaders. They all utilize scapegoats, meaning that they all identify a different, usually much smaller segment of the population on whom they can blame all the world’s ills and then set about to cure those ills through the elimination of the scapegoat. And more often than not, that scapegoat tends to be Jewish.

In the conclusion to the second edition of Pursuit of the Millennium, Cohn notes that the millenarian fervor of the middle ages may have changed, but it never really died, and it maintained its common characteristics even as it became secular or “quasi-religious.” He wrote:

The story told in Pursuit of the Millennium ended some four centuries ago but is not without relevance to our own times. [I have] shown in another work [Warrant for Genocide: The Myth of the Jewish World Conspiracy and the Protocols of the Elders of Zion] how closely the Nazi phantasy of a world-wide Jewish conspiracy of destruction is related to the phantasies that inspired Emico of Leningrad and the Master of Hungary; and how mass disorientation and insecurity have fostered the demonization of the Jew in this as in much earlier centuries. The parallels and indeed the continuity are incontestable.

The parallels between the rise of Nazism and the current global unrest and demonization of the Jewish people are also largely incontestable. The election that brought Hitler to power didn’t happen in a vacuum, after all. It happened in the midst of global chaos, namely the Great Depression. It also followed the decadence and distortion of the Weimer Era. As the New York Fed has shown, even a global pandemic—the 1919 Spanish Flu outbreak—contributed to the sense of discomfort and disconnect among the German population, prompting increased support for Hitler and his Nazis.

The present global chaos doesn’t have to end the same way the chaos of a century ago did. It doesn’t have to result in the ascension of millenarian ideologies and their totalitarian defenders. History has shown that extremism can be short-circuited and radical ideologies undone. The first step in doing so, however, must be to bring an end to the rationalization of the persecution of the world’s Jews. The second step is to end the persecution itself.

Antisemitism is ugly and shameful, and it must be treated as such. For their sake and ours.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/19/2024 – 02:00

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Cereal For The Peasants? How The Elites Use “Skimpflation” To Control Our Eating Habits

Cereal For The Peasants? How The Elites Use “Skimpflation” To Control Our Eating Habits

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us

People who have been reading my analysis for a long time are well aware of my expectations on the eventual outcome of the US economic debacle: A stagflationary crisis followed by a massive crash similar to the Great Depression (or worse). I based this prediction on a number of circumstances, but primarily I went back to the history of currency devaluations and central bank policy. These kinds of things have happened before and they tend to follow a pattern that is visible today.

Specifically, I studies the 1971-1981 stagflation crisis for reference and I found some startling similarities. It was one of the worst economic declines in American history next to the depression, and it’s an event that almost no one talks about. A lot of people (specifically Gen Z) believe that our current era is the worst financial era of all time and that their generation has been shafted by previous generations.

This is inaccurate; the stagflation disaster of the 1970s was far worse. That said, it shows us where our country is eventually headed and it’s not looking good. What is a manageable economic crunch today has the potential to become a calamity tomorrow.

One issue that I’m fascinated by that usually isn’t mentioned in mainstream economic discussion is quality degradation – The way in which products, services, construction, manufacturing, style and availability tend to break down when inflation suddenly spikes. This process is known as “skimpflation” and it was rampant in the 1970s and early 1980s. Most Americans today think of the 70s as a happy-go-lucky era of disco, bell bottoms and psychedelics, but in reality it was economically dismal.

Examining real life images and footage from the decade compared to the 1960s, there was a stark shift in the quality of life. From the quality of cars, to the quality of clothes, to the quality of housing. Some US cities (like New York or Philadelphia) looked like warzones complete with rubble strewn slums. After sky-high inflation for several years causes a doubling and tripling of retail prices along with growing unemployment rates, the environment starts to feel real ugly.

Skimpflation And The Food Pyramid Agenda

Another aspect of life that takes a hit is the quality of diet and the ability of families to feed themselves. Most people are familiar with the concept of “shrinkflation” – The habit of companies to shrink portion sizes while keeping their packaging and prices the same in order to offset inflation in production costs without consumers noticing. However, skimpflation is another way in which companies will attempt to avoid raising prices on the shelf, and that’s by lowering the quality of ingredients, along with encouraging the public to eat less nutritious (and less expensive to produce) foods.

The 1970s was the decade that gave birth to the processed food market and the microwave cuisine, at least on a wider scale. This was the decade when American food truly took a nose dive. The ease of processed foods was offset by the poor nutritional content. They were cheaper, but the quality sucked and we are still living with the repercussions of that trend today.

There were, of course, counter-culture movements working against the adoption of processed foods, including “know your farmer” type organizations and organic movements. But as we are all well aware, the cheap processed foods eventually won. Society embraced the market because they had to. Prices were so high that it was the only way they could feed their families everyday.

Interestingly, the Food Pyramid that we were all taught about as children in public schools was introduced to the western world in 1972. The pyramid was actually first used by the Swedish government in direct response to inflation and was designed to encourage the populace to eat cheaper food-stuffs (primarily cereals, dairy products, pastas and carbs). Governments have been using subsidies to promote the consumption of low cost and low quality foods ever since.

I’m recounting these trends from the 1970s because we are seeing a very similar agenda today, though it is far more insidious in nature. Economic decline is a favorite tool for the establishment to control the behavior of populations, including dietary habits.

Dollar Losing Buying Power? Switch To Lab Grown Meat And Bugs…

It’s no coincidence, for example, that there has been a massive push by government agencies and corporations to acclimate the public to the idea of fake lab-grown meat products. For now, fake meats are more expensive than real meats so there’s no incentive for the public to consume them, but if inflation continues to drive prices higher eventually real steak will cost far more than artificial steak and people may be convinced that the fake stuff is a viable alternative.

Then there’s the notion of western consumers eating bugs for protein instead of beef or chicken or pork. Beyond the claims that this will somehow “save the climate” from global warming (which is a complete falsehood backed by zero concrete evidence), the powers-that-be also suggest that bugs will be far more affordable than hamburgers in the near future.

Bugs are traditionally a starvation food. They are only a staple in countries where famine is common or where governments aggressively restrict normal agriculture. Bug protein also has a habit of giving people parasites. The only way westerners could be convinced to eat bugs as a part of their regular diet is if inflation crushes the regular meat market.

Let The Peasants Eat Cereal…

Another form of skimpflation is the shift even further to the bottom of the food pyramid. Recently, Kellogg’s CEO Gary Pilnick suggested in an interview with CNBC that Americans will eventually start ‘eating cereal for dinner’ because the cost is so much cheaper per portion. In other words, cheap processed carbs will become a mainstay of the American diet because a lot of people won’t be able to afford anything else. Pilnick brags that Kellogg’s is well placed for this coming change in the food market…

The marketing for this idea is already well underway. Various companies are promoting an end to traditional healthy homemade dinner habits and a switch to unconventional and cheaper processed foods. The thrust of the Kellogg’s campaign relies on poverty. Meaning, they are banking on the expectation that Americans will be poorer in the near term and that this condition will continue for years to come.

Just as we saw during the 1970s stagflation crisis, there is a rush to cut quality in all goods and services, but food is a major target. Today, it’s about convincing the market to consume more carbs and processed foods and less protein.  Tomorrow, it will be about abandoning established agriculture altogether and having all our food manufactured in labs.   The elites seem to be planning for a significant financial crisis beyond what we have already dealt with and this is evident in their efforts to sell the reconstruction of our dietary habits based on poverty rather than prosperity.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/19/2024 – 00:00

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Bank Of Japan (Finally) Kills The World’s Last Negative Interest Rate, Yen Weakens

Bank Of Japan (Finally) Kills The World’s Last Negative Interest Rate, Yen Weakens

As has been thoroughly warned, straw-manned, leaked, and hinted at over the past few weeks (here, here, and here for example), The Bank of Japan hiked interest rates tonight for the first time since 2007. This move ends the world’s last negative interest rate policy.

The vote, at 7-2 to scrap the negative interest rate (setting the policy rate in range between 0% to 0.1%), was closer than many expected with policy board members Nakamura and Noguchi dissented.

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, the bank has abandoned its yield curve control policy.

The BOJ will continue to purchase JGBs with “broadly the same amount as before,” but buying of ETFs and J-REITs has apparently been scrapped (while laying out a plan to scrap corporate debt and commercial paper buying).

Source: BoJ

In terms of forward guidance, Bloomberg notes that the bank isn’t offering much. It says it will continue to pay attention to developments in financial and FX markets, and their impact on Japan’s economic activity and prices.

But the previous pledge to “not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary” has been removed.

This was all in line with what had leaked out in domestic media reports over the past week but USDJPY still rose on the news (yen weakness)…

The BOJ actually downgraded its assessment of consumer spending and production, so there’s still a sense of caution.

The BoJ’s move comes as inflation has gradually returned to the nation with the most immediate catalyst being last week, when Japan’s largest union announced its biggest annual wage hike in three decades.

Despite the runway having been heavily foamed ahead of tonight’s decision, Veteran market commentator John Authers warns of significant implications for the rest of the world:

“Waiting over the years for Japan to beat deflation and raise rates has been rather like hoping for Lucy to let Charlie Brown kick the football, but if the BOJ is briefing the press like this, it must be a very real possibility,” he writes.

“There are implications for carry traders, and for Japan’s giant neighbor, China.”

Finally, even with the decision to pull the trigger, we note that the debate over whether the BOJ has met the supposedly main condition for raising rates – stable 2% inflation – is hardly over.

As Bloomberg reports, inflation may slow as the impact of imports-driven price gains wears off, meaning that if officials go ahead and change policy, they could end up facing criticism in the future that they’ve passed a premature judgement on prices, former BOJ board member Takahide Kiuchi recently wrote. “And that in turn could become an obstacle to smooth policy normalization,” he said.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/18/2024 – 23:45

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Trump Tells Ramaswamy ‘No’ For VP, But Leaves Cabinet Door Open

Trump Tells Ramaswamy ‘No’ For VP, But Leaves Cabinet Door Open

Donald Trump ‘personally told’ Vivek Ramaswamy that he’s been ruled out as a running mate, however the former president is eyeing a Cabinet job including the Homeland Security secretary, according to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter.

According to the report, “Some Trump allies see Ramaswamy as ideal for the job because they say he excels at public speaking and, as an Indian-American son of an immigrant, could neutralize criticism of sweeping immigration restrictions.

Their conversation is just one of many Trump has had recently with allies about administration positions as he seized hold of the Republican nomination. Loyalty, ideological compatibility and perceived electoral power are the metrics by which Trump is evaluating possible picks, according to people familiar with the process who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Those who have impressed Trump and his team for possible Cabinet roles include another former GOP primary foe, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, as well as Representative Elise Stefanik and former US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. -Bloomberg

Trump is apparently looking for a running mate who isn’t “motivated by the limelight,” but who will give the former president a significant edge. According to the report, none of the VP picks circulating have impressed Trump much, and his list of options has only grown longer, instead of shorter.

Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is rumored to be a top candidate to serve as Trump’s deep state handler chief of staff.

That said, after Steve Bannon and Mike Flynn were promptly squeezed out by dark forces the first time around, Trump is looking for a series of top-level aides and Cabinet members who can enable his agenda.

Jared’s back

Oh boy! Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law whose bed Bibi Netanyahu slept in one time, “has recently increased his presence in the campaign,” and has been “calling and texting to offer suggestions.”

Trump Jr., meanwhile, has also expressed interest in a key transition role – in part because he can act as a gatekeeper to block people who are opposed by the MAGA movement.

Don’t believe the hype?

In response to an inquiry by Bloomberg, senior Trump campaign adviser Jason Miller said it’s way too early to start speculating about Cabinet or senior roles.

“Apparently somebody has decided to list out everyone who has ever met President Trump and is now speculating as to their potential participation in a second Trump administration. The truth is that unless you hear it directly from President Trump or his campaign, this is all b.s.,” he said.

Those who have participated in the discussions describe a quintessentially Trump experience, in which the former president peppers the conversation with political observations and media critiques as a steady stream of food is served, while he keeps an eye on cable news or chooses his favorite musical selections over dinner at his Mar-a-Lago club.

The former president has repeatedly expressed admiration for Burgum, a billionaire who mounted a short-lived presidential bid. He has been discussed as a good fit to lead a transition – and possibly the Energy Department. Burgum, like Trump, is a supporter of fossil fuels. -Bloomberg

If we’re still believing the hype, one person who’s been cast out of the Trump tent is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R), following his failed primary challenge. Trump “regularly vents” about DeSantis in private conversations, however the pair did reportedly have a phone conversation shortly after DeSantis dropped out.

DOJ?

One of Trump’s top priorities will be to staff the nation’s top law enforcement agency with an attorney general who isn’t a deep state pawn.

Senate Republicans Ted Cruz (TX) and Mike Lee (UT) are on the short list, per the report, as “it would likely be easy to secure their confirmation.”

Former Chuck Grassley lawyer Mike Davis, meanwhile, could potentially serve as acting AG or White House counsel. Another attorney, Mike Purpura – who represented Trump during his first impeachment, is also a ‘strong contender’ for White House counsel.

If Trump is reelected, FBI Director Christopher Wray’s days will also be numbered.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/18/2024 – 23:20

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Report Criticizes ‘Catastrophic Errors’ Of COVID Lockdowns, Warns Of Repeat

Report Criticizes ‘Catastrophic Errors’ Of COVID Lockdowns, Warns Of Repeat

Authored by Kevin Stocklin via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

It was four years ago, in March 2020, that health officials declared COVID-19 a pandemic and America began shutting down schools, closing small businesses, restricting gatherings and travel, and other lockdown measures to “slow the spread” of the virus.

UNICEF unveiled its “Pandemic Classroom,” a model made up of 168 empty desks, each seat representing one million children living in countries where schools were almost entirely closed during the COVID pandemic lockdowns, at the U.N. Headquarters in New York City on March 2, 2021. (Chris Farber/UNICEF via Getty Images)

To mark that grim anniversary, a group of medical and policy experts released a report, called “COVID Lessons Learned,” which assesses the government’s response to the pandemic. According to the report, that response included a few notable successes, along with a litany of failures that have taken a severe toll on the population.

During the pandemic, many governments across the globe acted in lockstep to pursue authoritative policies in response to the disease, locking down populations, closing schools, shutting businesses, sealing borders, banning gatherings, and enforcing various mask and vaccine mandates. What were initially imposed as short-term mandates and emergency powers given to presidents, ministers, governors, and health officials soon became extended into a longer-term expansion of official power.

“Even though the initial point of temporary lockdowns was to ’slow the spread,’ which meant to allow hospitals to function without being overwhelmed, instead it rapidly turned into stopping COVID cases at all costs,” Dr. Scott Atlas, a physician, former White House Coronavirus Task Force member, and one of the authors of the report, stated at a March 15 press conference.

Published by the Committee to Unleash Prosperity (CTUP), the report was co-authored by Steve Hanke, economics professor and director of the Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics; Casey Mulligan, former chief economist of the White House Council of Economic Advisors; and CTUP President Philip Kerpen. 

According to the report, one of the first errors was the unprecedented authority that public officials took upon themselves to enforce health mandates on Americans. 

Granting public health agencies extraordinary powers was a major error,” Mr. Hanke told The Epoch Times. “It, in effect, granted these agencies a license to deceive the public.”

The authors argue that authoritative measures were largely ineffective in fighting the virus, but often proved highly detrimental to public health. 

The report quantifies the cost of lockdowns, both in terms of economic costs and the number of non-COVID excess deaths that occurred and continue to occur after the pandemic. It estimates that the number of non-COVID excess deaths, defined as deaths in excess of normal rates, at about 100,000 per year in the United States.

‘They Will Try to Do This Again’

“Lockdowns, schools closures, and mandates were catastrophic errors, pushed with remarkable fervor by public health authorities at all levels,” the report states. The authors are skeptical, however, that health authorities will learn from the experience.

“My worry is that if we have another pandemic or another virus, I think that Washington is still going to try to do these failed policies,” said Steve Moore, a CTUP economist. “We’re not here to say ‘this guy got it wrong’ or ’that guy or got it wrong,’ but we should learn the lessons from these very, very severe mistakes that will have costs for not just years, but decades to come. 

“I guarantee you, they will try to do this again,” Mr. Moore said. “And what’s really troubling me is the people who made these mistakes still have not really conceded that they were wrong.”

Mr. Hanke was equally pessimistic.

“Unfortunately, the public health establishment is in the authoritarian model of the state,” he said. “Their entire edifice is one in which the state, not the individual, should reign supreme.”

The authors are also critical of what they say was a multifaceted campaign in which public officials, the news media, and social media companies cooperated to frighten the population into compliance with COVID mandates.

During COVID, the public health establishment … intentionally stoked and amplified fear, which overlaid enormous economic, social, educational and health harms on top of the harms of the virus itself,” the report states. 

The authors contrasted the authoritative response of many U.S. states to policies in Sweden, which they say relied more on providing advice and information to the public rather than attempting to force behaviors.

Sweden’s constitution, called the “Regeringsform,” guarantees the liberty of Swedes to move freely within the realm and prohibits severe lockdowns, Mr. Hanke stated.

“By following the Regeringsform during COVID, the Swedes ended up with one of the lowest excess death rates in the world,” he said.  

Because the Swedish government avoided strict mandates and was more forthright in sharing information with its people, many citizens altered their behavior voluntarily to protect themselves.

“A much wiser strategy than issuing lockdown orders would have been to tell the American people the truth, stick to the facts, educate citizens about the balance of risks, and let individuals make their own decisions about whether to keep their businesses open, whether to socially isolate, attend church, send their children to school, and so on,” the report states.

‘A Pretext to Enhance Their Power’

The CTUP report cites a 2021 study on government power and emergencies by economists Christian Bjornskov and Stefan Voigt, which found that the more emergency power a government accumulates during times of crisis, “the higher the number of people killed as a consequence of a natural disaster, controlling for its severity.

As this is an unexpected result, we discuss a number of potential explanations, the most plausible being that governments use natural disasters as a pretext to enhance their power,” the study’s authors state. “Furthermore, the easier it is to call a state of emergency, the larger the negative effects on basic human rights.”

“All the things that people do in their lives … they have purposes,” Mr. Mulligan said. “And for somebody in Washington D.C. to tell them to stop doing all those things, they can’t even begin to comprehend the disruption and the losses.

“We see in the death certificates a big elevation in people dying from heart conditions, diabetes conditions, obesity conditions,” he said, while deaths from alcoholism and drug overdoses “skyrocketed and have not come down.”

The report also challenged the narrative that most hospitals were overrun by the surge of COVID cases.

“Almost any measure of hospital utilization was very low, historically, throughout the pandemic period, even though we had all these headlines that our hospitals were overwhelmed,” Mr. Kerpen stated. “The truth was actually the opposite, and this was likely the result of public health messaging and political orders, canceling medical procedures and intentionally stoking fear, causing people to cancel their appointments.”

The effect of this, the authors argue, was a sharp increase in non-COVID deaths because people were avoiding necessary treatments and screenings. 

“There were actually mass layoffs in this sector at one point,” Mr. Kerpen said, “and even now, total discharges are well below pre-pandemic levels.”

In addition, as health mandates became more draconian, many people became concerned at the expansion of government power and the loss of civil liberties, particularly when government directives—such as banning outdoor church services but allowing mass social-justice protests—often seemed unreasonable or politicized. 

The report also criticized the single-minded focus on vaccines and the failure by the NIH and the FDA to do clinical trials on existing drugs that were known to be safe and could have been effective in treating those infected with COVID-19.

Because so much of the process of approving the vaccines, the risks and benefits, and the reporting of possible side-effects was kept from the public, people were unable to give informed consent to their own health care, Mr. Kerpen said. 

“And when the Biden administration came in and started mandating them, now you had something that was inherently experimental with some questionable data, and instead of saying, ‘Now you have a choice whether you want it or not,’ in the context of a pandemic they tried to mandate them,” he said.

Pandemic Censorship

Tech oligopolies and the corporate media also receive criticism for their collaboration with government to control public messaging and censor dissenting voices. According to the authors, many government and health officials collaborated with tech oligarchs, news media corporations, and even scientific journals to censor critical views on the pandemic.

The Biden administration is currently defending itself before the Supreme Court against charges brought by Louisiana and Missouri attorneys general, who charged that administration officials pressured tech companies to censor information that contradicted official narratives on COVID-19’s origins, related mandates and treatment, as well as censoring political speech that was critical of President Biden during his 2020 campaign. The case is Murthy v. Missouri.

Mr. Hanke stated that a previous report he co-authored, titled “Did Lockdowns Work?,” which was critical of lockdowns, was refused by medical journals, even when they published op-eds that criticized it and published numerous pro-lockdown reports. 

Dr. Vinay Prasad—a physician, epidemiologist, professor at the University of California at San Francisco’s medical school and author of over 350 academic articles and letters—has made similar allegations of censorship by medical journals.

“Specifically, MedRxiv and SSRN have been reluctant to post articles critical of the CDC, mask and vaccine mandates, and the Biden administration’s health care policies,” Dr. Prasad stated.

Heightening concerns about medical censorship is the “zero-draft” World Health Organization (WHO) pandemic treaty currently being circulated for approval by member states, including the United States. It commits members to jointly seek out and “tackle” what the WHO deems as “misinformation and disinformation.”

One of the enduring consequences of the COVID years is a general loss of public trust in public officials, health experts, and official narratives. 

“Operation Warp Speed was a terrific success with highly unexpected rapidity of development [of vaccines],” Dr. Atlas said. “But the serious flaws centered around not being open with the public about the uncertainties, particularly of the vaccines’ efficacy and safety.” 

“One result of the government’s error-ridden COVID response was that Americans have justifiably lost faith in public health institutions,” the report states. According to the authors, if health officials want to regain the public’s trust, they should begin with an accurate assessment of their actions during the pandemic.

“The best way to restore trust is to admit you were wrong,” Dr. Atlas said. “I think we all know that in our personal lives, but here it’s very important because there has been a massive lack of trust now in institutions, in experts, in data, in science itself.

I think it’s going to be very difficult to restore that without admission of error,” he said.

Recommendations for a Future Pandemic

The CTUP report recommends that Congress and state legislatures set strict limitations on powers conferred to the executive branch, including health officials, and set time limits that would require legislation to be extended. This would give the public a voice in health emergency measures through their elected representatives.

It further recommends that research grants should be independent of policy positions and that NIH funding should be decentralized or block-granted to states to distribute.

Congress should mandate public disclosure of all FDA, CDC, and NIH discussions and decisions, including statements of any persons who provide advice to these agencies. Congress should also make explicit that CDC guidance is advisory and does not constitute laws or mandates. 

The report also recommends that the United States immediately halt negotiations of agreements with the WHO “until satisfactory transparency and accountability is achieved.”

Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/18/2024 – 23:00

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Yen’s Whiplash Day Only Begins With A Rate Hike

Yen’s Whiplash Day Only Begins With A Rate Hike

By Mark Cranfield, Bloomberg markets live reporter and strategist

USD/JPY may be priced for the Bank of Japan to exit negative rates – something which thanks to the non-stop media leaks we know for a fact will happen – but a knee-jerk selloff is still likely when the first headline drops as traders react to the news. And that will only be the start of what could be a series of back-and-forth swings for the yen until Governor Ueda ends his press conference a few hours after the BOJ statement lands.

While tightening policy is ostensibly a hawkish move, investors won’t be surprised if there are plenty of dovish caveats within the BOJ statement, with at least five things they will be focusing on for a sense of direction:

  • *BOJ MAINTAINS POLICY RATE AT -0.1%

This is the big one. Will the BOJ finally end negative rates? Although the preamble to next week suggests the decision is too close to call, a move to zero interest rates would still shock the yen into a move higher.

  • *BOJ MAINTAINS 10-YEAR JGB YIELD TARGET AT ABOUT 0%

In many ways this target is redundant as 10-year yields have been above zero for more than three years. That said, the symbolism of dropping the language would be negative for bonds.

  • *BOJ KEEPS UPPER BOUND REFERENCE ON LONG-TERM YIELDS AT 1%

In October the BOJ fumbled the message by introducing flexible yield curve control and JGBs skidded lower. Clear communication on ending YCC will be important to avoid a disorderly reaction in debt markets.

  • *BOJ VOTES 9-0 ON RATE DECISION

Whatever the BOJ decides, investors will want to know how split decision makers remain as a gauge for the pace of interest rate hikes to come.

  • *BOJ WILL ADD TO EASING WITHOUT HESITATION IF NEEDED

Arguably the most symbolic statement of all, dropping it from the text would be a bearish medium-term signal for JGBs.

* * *

And then the fun will really begin when Ueda starts taking questions at the press conference. It’s likely that Ueda will provide dovish forward guidance, but communication in the past hasn’t always run as smoothly as the central bank would like, opening up the risk of more USD/JPY volatility.

It sets up Tuesday for a head-spinning session…  and there is still the Federal Reserve to come!

Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/18/2024 – 22:46

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The 4th Bitcoin Halving Explained

The 4th Bitcoin Halving Explained

Sometime in April 2024, the reward that cryptocurrency miners receive for mining bitcoin (BTC) will go from ₿6.25 to ₿3.125, with significant consequences for the world’s most valuable digital currency.

To help understand this quadrennial event, Visual Capitalist’s Chris Dickert teamed up with HIVE Digital to take a deep dive on historical bitcoin data from Coinmetrics to see what the three previous halvings might tell us about the fourth.


Bitcoin Explained

But to understand halvings, we first need to take a step back to talk a bit about how the Bitcoin network works.

Unlike fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar or the Chinese yuan that are backed by central banks, cryptocurrencies are supported by an underlying blockchain, which contains a record of every single bitcoin transaction in a public decentralized, distributed ledger. 

When you spend a bitcoin, a digital record of that transaction needs to be validated and added to the blockchain. And this is where miners come in. They legitimize and audit bitcoin transactions, and as a reward, receive bitcoin in payment.

Halvings Explained

Now, quantitative easing notwithstanding, you normally can’t keep printing money forever without running into hyperinflation (think 1920s Germany or 1990s Argentina).

To get around this problem, the Bitcoin network has a pre-programmed upper limit of 21 million, with the reward that miners receive decreasing by half (hence, halving) roughly every four years. 

When the Bitcoin network first launched, the reward was initially set to ₿50, an amount that was high enough to quickly increase the money supply and incentivize miners to participate in the validation process. On November 28, 2012, that reward decreased by half to ₿25, then to ₿12.5 on July 9, 2016, and on May 11, 2020, to ₿6.25.

The last halving will happen sometime in 2136, with the reward decreasing to ₿0.00000001 or one satoshi, the smallest denomination of bitcoin possible. The last bitcoin will enter circulation four years later, in 2140.

Halvings and Miner Revenue

With the fourth halving just around the corner, some have wondered whether mining will still be sustainable. Modern mining operations today are costly endeavors, often with razor-thin margins, and losing half of one’s revenue overnight would be a nightmare for any business. 

And if you look at historical miner revenue in bitcoin, you can see quite clearly, the steep drop in revenue after each halving. But what’s interesting, is that if you compare that against the miner revenue in USD, there is a drop there as well, but it recovers soon thereafter as the cryptocurrency appreciates. In other words, a miner may receive less bitcoin, but that bitcoin is worth more.

Halvings Compared

So we know that the network will continue to function after the fourth halving, but what else can we learn from previous halvings? 

If we look at the percent change in market capitalization post-halvings, we can see a bit of a pattern. After both the second and third halvings, market capitalization peaked at around the year-and-half mark. The second-halving peak occurred on day 526 at around $328 billion, an increase of 3,000%, while the third-halving peak came three weeks later on day 547 at over $1.2 trillion, or an increase of just under 700%. 

The post-first-halving peak happened a bit earlier, at the 372-day mark, but because the peak was so high (over 10,000%!) it is considered an outlier, and omitted to better illustrate the trend.

The 4th Bitcoin Halving Projected?

Because we know that halvings occur every 210,000 blocks and that each block takes around 10 minutes to mine, we have a good idea of when the fourth halving should happenApril 21, 2024. If the next halving follows the same pattern as the previous two, then there could be a market-capitalization peak some time during the third week of October 2025.

And with the price of bitcoin setting new records at time of writing, a lot of people will be watching very closely, indeed.  

Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/18/2024 – 22:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/zwrAXNq Tyler Durden

Another Shutdown Averted As Deal Reached

Another Shutdown Averted As Deal Reached

Congress has reached a deal to avert yet another shutdown following an agreement to fund the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) through the remainder of FY 2024, according to Punchbowl News’ Jake Sherman.

The U.S. Capitol building at night in Washington on March 3, 2024. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

In a race against time, Congress passed a package of six appropriations bills earlier this month, narrowly avoiding a partial shutdown. The deal revealed by Sherman avoids a Friday, March 22 drop-dead date.

The text of a minibus combining those bills was widely expected to be released by Sunday, though no such deal emerged.

As Samantha Flom via The Epoch Times reported earlier, House rules require that members be given at least 72 hours to review legislation before it comes up for a vote. This meant that if a deal was not released on Monday, it could mean another last-minute scramble to get something on President Joe Biden’s desk.

The delay came amid fierce Republican opposition to the president’s handling of the crisis at the southern border, which more than 7 million illegal immigrants have crossed since he took office.

Appropriations for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) are included among the mix of remaining spending bills. Those negotiations reportedly derailed over the weekend amid talks of a potential year-long continuing resolution.

“Republicans want to underfund DHS, which makes the border less secure and the country less safe,” a White House official told Politico on Sunday, asserting that Republicans were trying to “sow chaos on the border ahead of November.”

But Republicans purportedly pushed back on those claims, holding that the issue was not the amount of funds requested but how they would be used.

Nonetheless, talks were said to be back on track on Monday. Commenting on the negotiations at a press briefing, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said the administration’s position was that DHS needs more funding to adequately address the border crisis.

The deal is likely to face pushback from the GOP’s right flank, which continues to push for stronger border reforms.

Congress: we are FUNDING a DHS that is MASS RELEASING illegal aliens into our communities, some of whom commit horrific crimes,” wrote Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), a member of the staunchly conservative House Freedom Caucus, in an X post.

“Republicans MUST NOT vote to keep funding Mayorkas’ DHS at the same level with zero policy changes next week. We have the power to stop this,” he added.

Thanks to the GOP’s razor-thin majority in the House, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) was forced to ally with Democrats to pass the first appropriations minibus on March 6. A similar partnership may well be in the cards for the second.

Other remaining bills include funding for the departments of Defense, Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and State, as well as the legislative branch, financial services, and general government.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/18/2024 – 22:20

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/vPTUgnR Tyler Durden