UMich Consumer Confidence “Recovers” – Hovers At 10-Month Lows

Unlike every other measure of consumer confidence, sentiment, or comfort, the ‘final’ UMich Consumer Confidence print recovered its “flash” collapse and managed to beat expectations. However, before the party streamers are broken out, this uptick leaves the confidence data the 2nd lowest since Jan 2013 – led by – drum roll please – the expectations for the future (which rose from a preliminary 62.3 to final 66.8). Perhaps troubling is the drop in inflation expectations – down to 2.9% year ahead, the lowest since Oct 2010. So unlike the rest of the surveys, UMich finds consumers more confident about the future but in the baffle-em-with-bullshit category, expecting disinflationary pressures to grow. Of course, there are seasonality factors – its the holidays nearly – and we note that the 75.1 print is lower than any Nov print from 2004-2008.