Two-thirds of Americans favor
raising the minimum wage from $7.25 to $10.10 an hour, while 32
percent oppose according to the latest
Reason-Rupe poll. However, support slips when possible costs
are considered.
A slim majority of Americans (51 percent) would continue to
favor even if raising the minimum wage caused businesses to raise
prices and 46 percent would oppose. However, support flips and 58
percent oppose if raising the minimum wage caused some employers to
lay off workers or hire fewer workers, while 39 percent would
favor. While a price increase would shave off 16 points of support,
jobs loses would reduce support by 28 points.
Willingness to pay higher prices or sacrifice jobs to raise
incomes among some low-income Americans varies across partisans.
Two-thirds of Democrats would pay higher prices, as would 50
percent of independents and 31 percent of Republicans. Fifty-four
percent of Democrats would also be willing to increase
unemployment, compared to 38 percent of independents and 20 percent
of Republicans. Instead a majority of Republicans (77 percent) and
independents (59 percent) would oppose a minimum wage increase if
it harmed jobs.
Nevertheless, 59 percent do not believe raising the minimum wage
will harm jobs, including 20 percent who think it will increase the
number of jobs and 39 percent who estimate no impact. Thirty-eight
percent think it will harm employment. When it comes to who
believes jobs will be harmed, Republicans (56 percent) and
independents (43 percent) are far more likely than Democrats (18
percent) to believe this.
When Americans were asked how they thought most companies would
primarily pay for a higher minimum wage, a plurality, 38 percent,
said companies would primarily charge higher prices, 32 percent
said they would primarily lay off workers, and 24 percent said
companies would reduce executive salaries and enjoy lower
profits.
Republicans were more than 20 points more likely than Democrats
to believe raising the minimum wage would cost consumers or
employees, 83 percent to 60 percent. While Republicans were 8
points more likely to think it would result in higher prices (44 to
36 percent), they were signficanlty more likely to believe it would
harm employment (39 to 24 percent) than Democrats.
These data help explain the high support for a minimum wage
increase: a majority of Americans are not yet convinced that
raising the minimum wage could cost jobs. And they would be willing
to pay higher prices if that were required.
Another reason public support remains high is that some people
who already believe a minimum wage hike would harm jobs appear to
forget when first asked if they would support a wage increase. For
instance, among those who reveal they believe raising the minimum
wage would reduce jobs, 38% initially support a minimum wage hike
if job losses are not mentioned in the question wording.
However, when jobs costs were mentioned in the follow-up
question, support plummets to 17 percent among this group. These
data emphasize the importance of “top of mind” considerations when
the public is making policy trade-offs. The more the media
emphasizes possible costs, the more salient these cost
considerations become.
Assuming no cost to jobs, majorities of Democrats (86 percent)
and independents (66 percent) favor raising the minimum wage.
Republicans are the only political group that opposes it 58 to 41
percent. However, just a few months ago a majority of Republicans
favored raising the minimum wage.
Support for Minimum Wage Increase Declines Among Republicans and
Millennials
Despite Republican opposition today, a majority of Republicans
recently supported a minimum wage increase. In December
2013, Reason-Rupe
foundthat a majority of Republicans supported raising the
minimum wage 55 to 40 percent. However, in April 2014 support
declined to 41 percent and opposition rose to 58 percent.
Republicans aren’t the only ones who have begun to sour on the
minimum wage increase. Support among young Americans (under 35
years old) has also declined 12 points from from 79 percent in
December 2013 to 67 percent in April 2014, but support has remained
consistent among older Americans.
Back in December a solid majority, 64 percent, of young
Republicans supported raising the minimum wage, compared to 49
percent in April 2014. However, among Republicans over 55, support
has remained roughly consistent with 43 percent in support in
December and 42 percent in April. While margins of error are larger
for these smaller subgroups, these data suggest that the Republican
shift occurred particularly among younger partisans.
Overall support for raising the wage has slightly declined from
72 percent in December 2013 to 67 percent in April 2014, but still
within the poll’s margin of error.
It is possible that the CBO
report finding that raising the minimum wage would lift
about 900,000 out of poverty but also cost about half a million
jobs has reduced support, particularly among young people.
Moreover, President
Obama’s promotion of the wage increase has likely also
driven up opposition among Republicans.
Nationwide telephone poll conducted March 26-30 2014
interviewed 1003 adults on both mobile (503) and landline (500)
phones, with a margin of error +/- 3.6%. Princeton Survey Research
Associates International executed the nationwide Reason-Rupe
survey. Columns may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Full
poll results, detailed tables, and methodology found here. Sign
up for notifications of new releases of the
Reason-Rupe poll here.
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