Exit Polls Show “Choco-King” Poroshenko Winning Ukraine Election As Expected (US Hardly Enthused)

As was largely expected, Petro Poroshenko – the candy tycoon known as the "chocolate king" – has easily beaten Yulia Tymoshenko – nicknamed "gas princess" – to become Ukraine's next president according to exit polls:

• *UKRAINIANS ELECT POROSHENKO AS PRESIDENT: EXIT POLL
• *POROSHENKO RECEIVES 55.9%, TYMOSHENKO RECEIVES 12.9% OF UKRAINE VOTE: EXIT POLL

Hope remains for stability in the nation as Poroshenko, as we noted here, is the most middle of the road – pro-Europe (but not too much) and most importantly believes Ukraine joining NATO "is probably not a good idea," which will likely disappoint the US. There has been violence in the East but it does not seem widespread enough to warrant any negative conclusions from Putin for now.

 

As we noted previously, Poroshenko is in the "middle"..

 

The next stape is, of course, whether Putin will accept these results. A factor that may impact Russia’s reaction to the presidential elections is the scale of hostility in eastern Ukraine. Depending on this factor, as well as the rate of participation (they are to some degree interrelated), we see the following scenarios:

Base case (65% probability): de facto, not de jure recognition – hostilities moderate towards the start of elections, rate of participation is relatively high in eastern Ukraine.

 

Optimistic scenario: de jure and de facto recognition (15%) in case of a significant de-escalation of military tension, progress in engaging the eastern representatives of pro-Russian forces in the peace process, relatively high rate of participation.

 

Pessimistic scenario: military escalation, eastern Ukraine boycotts elections; Russia’s meddling becomes significant (20% probability).

Turnout rates are reportedly high…

Ukrainians voted Sunday in a presidential election many hoped would steer the country back to stability, notching significant turnout figures despite shuttered polling stations across two rebel-held regions in the east.

but rumors of 'hackers' rigging the election are also spreading…

A group of hackers has been arrested in Kyiv with specialized equipment intended to rig the results of the Ukraine’s presidential election, according to Victor Yagun, deputy head of the Security Service of Ukraine, known as the SBU.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1nl13GT Tyler Durden